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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 17, 2023 12:16:30 GMT
So … Argentina v England in rugger final ? George Ford has to be recalled for that one, doesn't he?? As for today's result against Fiji, the report goes like this:- "Lucky England, who were rubbish in the group stage games, only having won all four of them, had the easiest route imaginable to the semi-finals, and they will get their due comeuppance when they finally face decent opposition in either France or South Africa. We must mention also that they had far the easiest group too, featuring as it did one of the other semi-finalists and part timers Japan and Samoa." Farrell is pretty useless too. Scuffed his crucial drop goal (barely crept over the posts) and luckily kicked another 17 fluke points."  I just thought that it was a pity that the seedings were such that Ireland against the All Blacks wasn't the final. Although England got past Fiji, they still didn't look like competition winners to me. France against South Africa was a game that could have gone either way and the losing side have no complaint. Both sides missed makeable kicks at goal. |
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Post by wb61 on Oct 17, 2023 12:17:56 GMT
leftieliberal I stand by what I said. If you see this as a way of ridding these pages of my malign influence, then so be it. Your idea that latent criminality can be passed on through six generations before finding its expression in a referendum about the constitution is strongly suggestive of a criminal genotype, and there is no scientific basis for this whatsoever. Many of those transported were convicted of trivial crimes; hanging was the sentence for anything more serious. Some of those transported went on to contribute a great deal to the developing colony. @rafwan I don't believe in eugenics or as you expressed it "bad blood". That you alleged that I did is libellous. And I stand by what I said. All you are doing now is to try to minimise the allegation. Your use of phrases like "the criminal genotype" shows me that however much you deny it, your thinking is coloured by eugenics, which does not surprise me. I understand now that you did not mean it that way, but I took a similar message from your original post as @rafwan, that the history of convicts being settled in Australia was, somehow, connected to the vote in the referendum on indigenous rights. What that "somehow" amounted to was open to interpretation, and the interpretation given by @rafwan was reasonable on the limited information. I certainly wouldn't accuse you of being an eugenicist because I have seen the general approach you take to matters and then your later response to @rafwan has made clear. However, I do wonder if you and @rafwan are at cross-purposes. I do not consider @rafwan to be arguing for eugenics in his post rather he is arguing against it as you seem to be. I hope you and @rafwan take this post in the spirit it is meant. We often on this site write short posts which are not written with the degree of accuracy in expressing an idea that we would in a more formal document. Such posts can be misinterpreted, I think that is probably what has happened here! |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2023 12:18:17 GMT
Brexitanians seem a bit miffed that a far right , nationalist is likely to be replaced by an enthusiastic moderate supporter of the European union. Almost as if they had an agenda. youtu.be/Q8pwLu5Rdo8?si=ER3NecJcwZj4bn2t |
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Post by Mark on Oct 17, 2023 12:21:20 GMT
peterbell Of course! Your preference has been noted. There wasn't actually a vote as such, I asked members what they thought and noted those stating an opinion. Just for clarity, should the majority of those stating an opinion still favour the change, it will nly apply to the main polling threads. Issue specific threads will remain unchanged (IE anyone can start one).
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Post by Rafwan on Oct 17, 2023 12:22:09 GMT
leftieliberal I stand by what I said. If you see this as a way of ridding these pages of my malign influence, then so be it. Your idea that latent criminality can be passed on through six generations before finding its expression in a referendum about the constitution is strongly suggestive of a criminal genotype, and there is no scientific basis for this whatsoever. Many of those transported were convicted of trivial crimes; hanging was the sentence for anything more serious. Some of those transported went on to contribute a great deal to the developing colony. @rafwan I don't believe in eugenics or as you expressed it "bad blood". That you alleged that I did is libellous. And I stand by what I said. All you are doing now is to try to minimise the allegation. Your use of phrases like "the criminal genotype" shows me that however much you deny it, your thinking is coloured by eugenics, which does not surprise me. RIGHT! Well!! Pistols at dawn it is then! |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2023 12:37:02 GMT
Jones lost the plot some time ago and is making that long dreary journey from interesting polemicist to tedious propagandist. He shoehorns Starmer-loathing, Tory-bashing and minority issue politics into everything he writes now. No nuance, no shades of grey and no real intellectual weight. Most of it is shouty tirades in print. For that reason I swerve him now. I agree he is shouty and I don't like the podcasts with the waving hands and "energy" but he remains one of the better referenced of any of the Guardian comment writers when he does an article. Different comment writers have different roles of course- Hyde and Grace mostly humour, Rawnsley Westminister bubble, etc, but there are very few who give any appearance of being experts in their field or referencing to something we didn't know before. Monbiot one of the exemptions and maybe a few like Simon Jenkins and Larry Elliott to some degree at least. I'd say a lot of the centrist comment writers were pretty shouty and lacking nuance when Corbyn and brexit were hot topics. I think ultimately the comment section mostly has to be filed away as clickbait these days and/or telling their readers what they want to hear. I have literally never picked up anything from a Toynbee article that was new to me. On a centrist/LOC scale Jones will be the polar opposite to Toynbee and in that sense they have the same role for attracting readers who like what they say, but I do still normally come away from a Jones article with something I didn't previously know rather than being purely for the purposes of reinforcement of my beliefs. Yes, Jones' podcasts are excruciating and he actually achieved the almost impossible the other day and made me start to feel sorry for Tory delegates at their recent conference in Manchester. He attended, microphone in hand, ambushing Tory delegates and politicians with the sole purpose of making them look silly. In most cases, I admit, that isn't a particularly difficult thing to do, but it was infantile smart-arsery with no journalistic merits at all. In his interview with Eric Pickles, I actually went away thinking Pickles was the nicer fellow of the two. How bad is that? |
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Post by Rafwan on Oct 17, 2023 12:38:37 GMT
Thanks, wb61, that all makes very good sense to me. If leftieliberal agrees, I will rebox my grandad’s Derringer. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 17, 2023 12:40:56 GMT
Well you could try this for starters: Polls to probabilities: Comparing prediction markets and opinion polls James Read and Leighton Vaughan Williams International Journal of Forecasting Volume 35, Issue 1, January–March 2019, Pages 336-350 Abstract The forecasting of election outcomes is a hugely popular activity, and not without reason: the outcomes can have significant economic impacts, for example on stock prices. As such, it is economically important, as well as of academic interest, to determine the forecasting methods that have historically performed best. However, the forecasts are often incompatible, as some are in terms of vote shares while others are probabilistic outcome forecasts. This paper sets out an empirical method for transforming opinion poll vote shares into probabilistic forecasts, and then evaluates the performances of prediction markets and opinion polls. We make comparisons along two dimensions, bias and precision, and find that converted opinion polls perform well in terms of bias, while prediction markets are good for precision.
Vaughan William is Professor of Economics and Finance and Head of Economics Research and Director of the Betting Research Unit and Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School. There is a difference between precision and accuracy (lack of bias). Accuracy and precision are two measures of observational error. Accuracy is how close a given set of measurements (observations or readings) are to their true value, while precision is how close the measurements are to each other.Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accuracy_and_precisionSo your prediction markets are likely all to agree pretty closely with each other, but not necessarily be close to the true result, while opinion polls are likely to give the vote share accurately. The problem with converting vote share into seats won is the lumpiness of the vote of parties. Even MRP models have difficulties in dealing with this. |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Oct 17, 2023 12:45:30 GMT
In 1900 there was only one match played, but at least it was over two days and included two innings for each side. Devon and Somerset Wanderers (if they still exist) are the current Olympic champions. Now that is a fantastic tit-bit of info. Thanks Mercian. |
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2023 13:15:59 GMT
The knob head of the day award goes to Richard Madeley
Interviewing Layla Moran the lib dem mp who is of Palestinian ancestry with immediate and extended family living in the West Bank and Gaza Strip Madeley decided that the appropriate question was not concern for their safety but “with your family connections in Gaza, did you have any indication of what was going to happen” ahead of Hamas’s attacks.
Because obviously a family of pro western Palestinian Christians were going to have advanced warning of a terrorist attack.
Prick.
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 17, 2023 13:22:11 GMT
Surprised to see not even a dead cat MOE bounce for the Tories in that Deltapoll survey but R&W have duly obliged with a trusty old +/- 3% deceased feline rebound. 😇🤔 It should be a lesson not to believe polling just because it fits your preconceptions. I want to see some more all-Scotland polling to tell if those low SNP VI in the GB polls are real or not. With a (2019) electorate of 1/11.4 of the GB electorate, 35% in Scotland should translate into 3.1% GB VI, so I would expect mostly 3% with the odd 2% and 4%. Since the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election we have had 11 GB polls with 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 3, 4, 3, 3, 1, 2% which suggests a GB VI of slightly below 3%. But sub-samples are not demographically balanced, so we don't know if it is real or not. Similarly, Deltapoll have the Lib Dems on 10% (-2), while R&W have them on 14% (+1). The truth is probably somewhere in between. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 17, 2023 13:34:18 GMT
Jones lost the plot some time ago and is making that long dreary journey from interesting polemicist to tedious propagandist. He shoehorns Starmer-loathing, Tory-bashing and minority issue politics into everything he writes now. No nuance, no shades of grey and no real intellectual weight. Most of it is shouty tirades in print. For that reason I swerve him now. One of several reasons why I won't give The Guardian any money (they are now asking for £5/month to support their journalism) is that I cannot ensure that it goes to specific journalists, such as John Harris, whose articles I always read. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 17, 2023 13:44:53 GMT
@rafwan I don't believe in eugenics or as you expressed it "bad blood". That you alleged that I did is libellous. And I stand by what I said. All you are doing now is to try to minimise the allegation. Your use of phrases like "the criminal genotype" shows me that however much you deny it, your thinking is coloured by eugenics, which does not surprise me. I understand now that you did not mean it that way, but I took a similar message from your original post as @rafwan, that the history of convicts being settled in Australia was, somehow, connected to the vote in the referendum on indigenous rights. What that "somehow" amounted to was open to interpretation, and the interpretation given by @rafwan was reasonable on the limited information. I certainly wouldn't accuse you of being an eugenicist because I have seen the general approach you take to matters and then your later response to @rafwan has made clear. However, I do wonder if you and @rafwan are at cross-purposes. I do not consider @rafwan to be arguing for eugenics in his post rather he is arguing against it as you seem to be. I hope you and @rafwan take this post in the spirit it is meant. We often on this site write short posts which are not written with the degree of accuracy in expressing an idea that we would in a more formal document. Such posts can be misinterpreted, I think that is probably what has happened here! As @rafwan (below) is not prepared to withdraw his accusation of me being a eugenicist. I will not withdraw my accusation that he has libelled me. |
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Post by Dave on Oct 17, 2023 14:01:52 GMT
I don't know where to start with Owen Jones. He can't bring himself to criticise Hamas - no, he has to find a way, any way of flipping it to an attack on Britain.
I think there are people who by their idiocy and words push back the time when a truly progressive, left party has a chance can take the reins, simply because their words are so repugnant and alien to so many. On our islands, Jones is a current leader of that group. His silence would literally advance the cause of progressive politics more than his words and actions do, because he makes what he espouses to want, less likely.
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Post by ptarmigan on Oct 17, 2023 14:06:00 GMT
I really don't understand Owen Jones trying to excuse Hamas's murderous homophobia He is a staunch defender (quite rightly) of gay rights in the UK but in attempting to absolve Hamas because the British passed a law 87 years ago is grotesque I find Owen Jones is frequently misrepresented and I'd say this is another case of that. That tweet was part of a thread in which he's responding to the idea that Hamas' homophobia means there is an issue with him, as a gay man, expressing solidarity with Palestine and opposing Israeli war crimes. I think the observation about the British Empire's legacy of homophobia is a response to the Western exceptionalism contained within that idea (are we really only supposed to be concerned about the deaths of ordinary civilians if they happen to live in countries where the regime espouses liberal democratic values?) He concludes that thread by saying that opposition to injustice and oppression is unconditional and that the biggest threat that LGBT Gazans currently face is from the Israeli onslaught. Unless you strip away the context completely (which is admittedly what's been done there) I really don't see how that comment can be viewed as trying to absolve or excuse Hamas. |
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Post by alec on Oct 17, 2023 14:10:41 GMT
Danny - "There is no known way to prevent transmission. If you know of one, tell us. What you have said in the past suggests you would construct better ventilation in all places of work and public buildings. Require mask wearing always. Require permanent testing. Restrict movements." No it doesn't. You're lying about what I've said again. Go away and start telling the truth about what people are telling you instead of living in a land of wild imaginings.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 14:28:23 GMT
A rise in 'both equally' (likely coming from the drop in DK)
LAB MP Richard Burgon is IMO pushing his luck, possibly deliberately, with Starmer. I don't think he's saying anything wrong (noting CON MPs like Crispin Blunt have said similar) but Burgon is from the LW faction of LAB and if Starmer is looking for an excuse to purge more of the Corynistas then he has one - albeit it a very weak one that might see a bit of a backlash if he makes Burgon a martyr.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 17, 2023 14:30:20 GMT
Issue specific threads will remain unchanged (IE anyone can start one). Batty will be pleased. He’s started loads! |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 14:45:38 GMT
"Wages continued to grow at one of the fastest paces on record in August, raising fears that inflation will not come down as fast as expected by the Bank of England.... Perhaps people are asking for higher wages because their mortgages (or rent) have gone up massively due to BoE hiking rates so aggressively  BoE won't accept they are part of the 'wage-price' problem and still seem to want to force a recession to slash 'aggregate demand' and the see higher unemployment force down pay. I can't see Rishi or Hunt calling out the BoE given that will give fuel to the Trussites but higher rates are also forcing up debt interest payments for taxpayers which will mean ongoing 'fiscal drag' (eg freezing of income tax thresholds) is required and/or austerity. |
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2023 14:53:25 GMT
"Labour has been urged to clarify its position on collective punishment in the context of Israel’s response to the 7 October Hamas massacre of Israeli citizens, in a letter to Keir Starmer signed by 39 academics.
The signatories, including experts in international law, international humanitarian law, international criminal law and related disciplines say that comments by Starmer, Emily Thornberry and David Lammy have provided tacit approval of the war crime of collective punishment.
Starmer attracted criticism from the Labour Muslim Network and the UN special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian authorities, among others, when, asked in an interview with LBC about Israel cutting off water and electricity, he said “Israel does have that right” while adding that “obviously everything should be done within international law”. Several Muslim Labour councillors have resigned in response to Starmer’s comments.
On Sunday, the Labour leader issued a statement calling on on “all parties to act in line with international law, including allowing humanitarian access of food, water, electricity and medicines to Gaza”. But the letter says the latter statement “does nothing to rescind your tacit approval of Israel’s collective punishment of the population of Gaza”.
It states:
The right to self-defence is not unqualified, it is bound by longstanding laws that form one of the pillars of a rules-based international order. International humanitarian law, including the fourth Geneva Convention and additional protocols, prohibits collective punishment in all circumstances. The imposition of collective punishment can be considered a war crime under customary international law. The cutting off of food, water and electricity to the population of Gaza is a clear case of collective punishment.
Indiscriminate bombing of populated areas, the use of white phosphorus, as documented by Human Rights Watch on 12 October, and the forced transfer of a population are incompatible with international humanitarian law. The atrocities committed by Hamas on 7 October and its slaughter of Israeli citizens do not abrogate international humanitarian law; on the contrary, these laws were designed for precisely these circumstances.
We request that you immediately issue a public and detailed clarification of Labour’s legal position on collective punishment and on the forcible transfer of civilians. We request that you confirm that you and your party oppose the commission of war crimes, wherever and whenever they may occur. "
Keir Starmer is an intelligent man and an exemplary ex human rights lawyer, it's blindingly obvious to me as a far less qualified individual with just an LLM that the Israeli government actions both in cutting off essential supplies to an imprisoned people and the forced displacement of people , while continuing to attack and kill them are flagrant breaches of international law.
They need to be called out as such.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2023 14:53:31 GMT
The knob head of the day award goes to Richard Madeley Interviewing Layla Moran the lib dem mp who is of Palestinian ancestry with immediate and extended family living in the West Bank and Gaza Strip Madeley decided that the appropriate question was not concern for their safety but “with your family connections in Gaza, did you have any indication of what was going to happen” ahead of Hamas’s attacks. Because obviously a family of pro western Palestinian Christians were going to have advanced warning of a terrorist attack. Prick. Someone on Twitter this morning very aptly described him as the Alan Partridge of GMTV |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 15:03:21 GMT
Not someone I ever thought I'd agree with but good to see various MPs from both sides speaking out. Party leaders seem to be modifying their language slightly but not enough IMO.
The YG poll I posted earlier has quite a partisan split. LAB are 27% (net 18%) on Palestinian side versus CON at 39% (net 33%) on the Israeli side and that correlates to the age divide in the x-breaks as you'd expect with higher DKs in the younger age groups compared to 65+
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 15:04:41 GMT
steveRe Starmer, there are some on the left who detest Starmer more than the tories and use every opportunity to attack him Listening to his speech yesterday (linked to below) I found it balanced and to the point. He has said similar things to what Ed Davey has said about respecting international law. Unfortunately for some (not you) it will never be enough
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 15:05:05 GMT
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Post by Mark on Oct 17, 2023 15:12:10 GMT
Should have happened a long time ago. Better late than never, I guess. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 15:18:29 GMT
Should have happened a long time ago. Better late than never, I guess. ?!?! Innocent until proven guilty IMO but we can of course disagree or perhaps just a different opinion on what constitutes a 'long time'. |
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 15:24:49 GMT
Some expectation management from the tories, can't blame them, but their figures don't compute
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Post by Mark on Oct 17, 2023 15:25:04 GMT
Surely what often happens, not only in politics, but, in business, in public services such as the police etc., is that those accused of wrongdoing are suspended pending an investigation.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2023 15:29:20 GMT
Profiles in courage as the " moderate " republicans opposed to electing dictator enabler Jim Jordan reduce in number from 50 to 5!
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 15:30:35 GMT
Should have happened a long time ago. Better late than never, I guess. Agree, this was first reported to the tory party by the victim in 2015. Then again in 2017. When they still hadn't investigated and or concluded the investigation in 2021, the victim had to take it to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards for it to be investigated For the tories to be aware of the complaint of this seriousness and not take action in 6 years is not acceptable |
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