neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 5:16:19 GMT
Makes a good point...
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2023 5:43:44 GMT
The exodus and humanitarian disaster in Gaza continues hundreds of thousands have fled seeking illusory safety in the south but around a hundred thousand remain in Gaza city , these of course won't be the Hamas terrorists and their hostages who will mostly be long gone but those unable to leave, nearly half are to be found in Gaza's largest hospital.
"At Gaza City’s Dar Al Shifa hospital, the living sleep between beds filled with patients, in corridors, and even in the grounds, while the dead overflow the morgue.
The name Dar Al Shifa translates as “house of healing”, and tens of thousands have sought not just healing but shelter from the bombardments that rained down on Gaza City every hour, praying the hospital might provide some protection. Printed blankets have been hung from the entrance courtyard’s iron handrails to provide shade, while some people have gathered around the stairwells with their children and all that remains of their belongings.
Shifa is not just Gaza’s largest medical facility, but the nerve centre of its entire healthcare system, and the Israeli assault on the territory has brought it to breaking point. Local authorities and aid groups in Gaza estimate that between 35,000 and 40,000 people are sheltering there.
“The doctors have brought their families into the hospital for safety. I slept on an operating room table last night,” said Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah, one of the surgeons, speaking to the Guardian by phone"
When the IDF launches it's ground invasion it's entirely likely that these will be the people who die as a result,they already arre, it pushes the boundaries of reality to see this as anything other than the collective mass punishment of the innocent.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 17, 2023 6:13:58 GMT
So to sum up, the political betting market has only one reliable source of information, fleshed out by 'guessing' what is happening. It is just a shadow reflection of opinion polling, because opinion polling is the only useful information there is. My contention is that betting markets simply reflect polling and get the 'wrong result' whenever polling does, so proving themselves no more efficient than polling, and in post 3 of 3 I will endeavour through historical examples to test whether this can be substantiated. I read your list, but i think you missed one. Whether its reliable is another matter, but I think people interacting get an idea how the political wind is blowing. Talking between themselves about how the government in doing. If all your neighbours who used to be dead happy the conservatives were elected are now talking about its mistakes, that suggests they will do worse, maybe even disastrously. It may even form a consensus between people that they all need to vote against the government. Now you might call that opinion polling, but its not something being collated and published in this form. No formal opinion polling I know of asks people what their neighbours are thinking. It doesnt rely on people checking formal polling. It doesnt even rely on them being interested in politics, your neighbour may simply say they have some illness and it will be months before they get seen. The council isnt doing such and such. Where is the Brexit Bonus that was promised? General consensus ministers are proven liars. And it creates an impression of failure and a need to change the government. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 6:19:05 GMT
I really don't understand Owen Jones trying to excuse Hamas's murderous homophobia
He is a staunch defender (quite rightly) of gay rights in the UK but in attempting to absolve Hamas because the British passed a law 87 years ago is grotesque
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 17, 2023 6:24:33 GMT
PJW, One factor your helpful post did not address was how large bets can shift markets when few bets are placed; and how these can be arbitraged in 2 'horse' races. So, place a big bet on the outsider; their odds shorten and the favourites lengthen with the result that a larger bet on the favourite can be placed ensuring a return whichever of the 2 contenders wins. In Hayekian terms this may be considered a market distortion and akin to an abuse of oligopsony. Difference being, though, that other buyers may enter should they wish so the strategy has risk hence regulation is not appropriate. Yes, that's going to be in my second post, since the paper helpfully gives an example of exactly that happening in their chosen election. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 17, 2023 6:33:38 GMT
So to sum up, the political betting market has only one reliable source of information, fleshed out by 'guessing' what is happening. It is just a shadow reflection of opinion polling, because opinion polling is the only useful information there is. My contention is that betting markets simply reflect polling and get the 'wrong result' whenever polling does, so proving themselves no more efficient than polling, and in post 3 of 3 I will endeavour through historical examples to test whether this can be substantiated. I read your list, but i think you missed one. Whether its reliable is another matter, but I think people interacting get an idea how the political wind is blowing. Talking between themselves about how the government in doing. If all your neighbours who used to be dead happy the conservatives were elected are now talking about its mistakes, that suggests they will do worse, maybe even disastrously. It may even form a consensus between people that they all need to vote against the government. Now you might call that opinion polling, but its not something being collated and published in this form. No formal opinion polling I know of asks people what their neighbours are thinking. It doesnt rely on people checking formal polling. It doesnt even rely on them being interested in politics, your neighbour may simply say they have some illness and it will be months before they get seen. The council isnt doing such and such. Where is the Brexit Bonus that was promised? General consensus ministers are proven liars. And it creates an impression of failure and a need to change the government. I would see that as part of my point (g) 'common sense' or 'what everybody is thinking'. This is doesn't always prove true! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 17, 2023 6:34:40 GMT
Danny - "Its a very interesting question whether the massive vaccination campaign is what turned covid from being a winter only disease into an all year round one." No it isn't. The massive vaccination campaign is what turned covid from being a year round killer of hundreds of thousands of people to being a year round killer of a few tens of thousands of people. Stop being so silly. The actual death rate did not fall x10 after vaccinations. More like x4, but that was at a time other medical advances in treatments also claimed to have reduced deaths x2. The actual recorded fall in deaths is distinctly underwhelming, as even you have pointed out. I find it unfortunate you do not find this to be an interesting question but instead dismiss it out of hand. There is no known way to prevent transmission. If you know of one, tell us. What you have said in the past suggests you would construct better ventilation in all places of work and public buildings. Require mask wearing always. Require permanent testing. Restrict movements. The first of these would be massively expensive. The second pretty expensive, doesnt work very well unless its perfect masks worn perfectly. The third, testing, has been proven doesnt work very. Permanent lockdown, massively expensive and would bankrupt the nation in a few months. None of the measures would stop transmission, maybe slow it but the problem is the less often you get infected then the more serious a case you will get eventually, or the easier it becomes to infect you. The more measures work, the harder they have to work to stop spread. There is positive feedback in the loop of infection, the more you suppress it then the fewer are immune and so spread becomes easier. We have stopped trying to control covid by physical measures because they dont work and would be prohibitively expensive bankrupting society and destroy our quality of life. Thats what most of the world believes, but not you. No, I dont recall you saying that. Years ago I posted some expert saying this, but I am happy we can agree no epidemic has ever been ended by vaccinations, including this one. The expert I recall speaking said you need two things from a vaccine, which might mean two separate vaccines. One vaccine at least which works in the long term and prevents future infection. We do not have that at all. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2023 6:39:38 GMT
With the potential of coup conspirator Jim Jordan being elected as speaker of the house and third in line to the presidency( ye gods!)
Worth looking at the role that the house has in an election certificates in 2024 if the traitor stands and loses again.
What happened in 2021 was unprecedented, in scale and context — Republicans objected to results in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Only the objections to Arizona (which was interrupted by the violent insurrection on the Capitol) and Pennsylvania were supported by senators and went to a vote. In total, 147 Republicans objected to the results in those two states. Additionally, one of Trump’s lawyers wrote a memo outlining a procedure for then-Vice President Mike Pence to overthrow the results altogether.
Last January, the objections delayed the process but did not derail it altogether. While 147 objectors is an astonishingly high amount,leading among these objectors was Jim Jordan, there were still enough Republicans who did not follow their party’s baseless claims, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Ever since, the GOP has not only normalized Trump’s “Big Lie,” but made it a central pillar of their party.
It's difficult to imagine a Jordan chaired house certifying any election where their maga cult leader has lost ,or for that matter any other republican.
The US is just one vote away from ceasing to have a functional democracy as one party will have embraced a fascist dictatorship.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 17, 2023 6:41:21 GMT
What seems silly though was McDonnell said we should 'demand a ceasefire'! How are we in a position to demand anything? All we can realistically do is provide humanitarian aid and tut-tut over the slaughter. So we should offer homes to some of the refugees? |
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Post by Danny on Oct 17, 2023 6:55:55 GMT
It would seem Woolhouse, a member of the Spi-m advisory committee, rather agreed with the medics in Sweden who were put in charge rather than politicians, and who chose not to lock down. He added: “I think it’s fair to describe lockdown not as a public health policy, but as a failure of public health policy. [Lockdown] is what you do when all those other things you know you can do haven’t worked, it’s a last resort and it should always be that in my view.” "I did not think from very early on that eradicating the virus was even the remotest possibility." He seems to have been upset that the adisory panels were never asked wider questions about harm from possible interventions and how this might negate the benefits, merely to provide a list of things which might be done. News this morning reported Vallance and Whitty complining they were being used as shields to implement political choices. There seems to be a debate whether its right to publish their contemporary diary entries where they complained about how they were being treated. One wonders who might want to suppress this? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 17, 2023 7:05:19 GMT
Maybe that just means that what we call 'higher rate' tax isnt really higher rate? News today was talking about new figures showing wage rates rising ahead of inflation. But if they do, it is still highly likely the population will divided between groups getting above inflation rises, and others still getting below inflation rises. So one lot will be doing most of the soaring into higher rate taxes, but the other will not. Its likely this sort of tax threshold effect is going to hit those most successful in their wage claims. Who are the same people who have been most successful in their wage claims throughout this conservative government. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2023 7:18:30 GMT
Chris Christie is by no means great but he is both sane and a former senior state prosecutor. Here's his take on the zero chance of the deranged traitor's complying with the court " gag" order while not breaching it on day one, by a whisker he did completely misrepresent what it restricted him from saying, while of course saying what he said he wasn't allowed to. youtu.be/8fj44xFMIGs?si=KXygcnUhJDDmEKeR |
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2023 7:24:43 GMT
I don't have a lot of time for Tory Ministers but kudos to Andrew Mitchell for a bit of honesty.
Israel has a “moral and practical responsibility” to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, the UK’s development minister has said.
Andrew Mitchell also described the situation in the territory as a “looming humanitarian crisis” as he said “all of us must hope” that the US and the Israelis are able to reach an agreement that paves the way for the opening of the Rafah crossing into Egypt from Gaza.
“If there is a plan, I’m sure that it will be possible for the Egyptians to agree to it opening,” the minister told Times Radio.
He also said that some form of ‘safe zone’ in southern Gaza would be required to deliver the aid that was needed, though he warned that such initiatives have a “chequered past,” recalling both Rwanda and Srebrenica.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 7:29:34 GMT
The tweet you responded to was about councillors in Stroud leaving Labour over Starmer’s response to the situation in Israel and Gaza I repeat the tweet below to help your recollection Ok. I think I was just expanding on the point, and suggesting that Starmer's stance might damage Labour's chances in other places as well, particularly inner cities. Sorry if that wasn't clear. The original comment was WRT LAB councillors quitting and more of those...
Labour councillors quit party in protest at Keir Starmer’s Israel stancewww.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/16/labour-councillors-quit-party-in-protest-at-keir-starmers-israel-stance#I doubt we'll see a VI impact for now but did note there is a bit of partisan divide on some Israel-Palestine opinion and that might feed into some VI changes. Your point concerning "inner cities"* was valid and I provided a link to show religion % by seat. Although it is not just Muslims who will start to get concerned about what Israel is/will be getting up to in the coming days-weeks. * Most of which are very safe LAB but could see an 'Ind' candidate whip up support (eg George Galloway). A small amount of 'vote de-stacking' (ie losing some votes in very safe seats) won't harm LAB's seat numbers but not every Corbynista type was in an Inner City seat. Starmer has adopted CON's policy on pro-Israel and that might help him, or least harm him, in the kinds of votes/seats LAB are targeting (see 'Hero Voters' and the seats CON won in GE'19) |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 7:40:51 GMT
IFS pre-budget report picking up some press. As mentioned t'other day then interest costs are up but so are tax revenues (ie some net +ve short-term cash flow 'down the back of the sofa'*) but the future growth numbers are where the concern about meeting the target of 'debt falling' will be. With debt so high and many of the component parts of a 5yr 'prediction' being so volatile then small moves in the 'assumptions' used for the main variables can make big changes in the model's output and is one of many reasons why I think giving excessive 'influence' to OBR is a stupid idea - although after the Truss error then I can see why folks would never Trusst politicians! For those who prefer to read the info direct from the horse's mouth see below. If you prefer your info 'processed' then plenty of press have put their spin on it: Green Budget 2023ifs.org.uk/publications/green-budget-2023* see #7: "leaving borrowing at £112 billion for the year, £20 billion below the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)’s March forecast for 2023–24 as a whole"
** see #2: "But because it (debt to be falling) narrowly targets the change between year 4 and year 5 of the forecast, the fiscal mandate is overly sensitive to assumptions about growth, inflation and interest rates five years hence" |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2023 8:01:37 GMT
I really don't understand Owen Jones trying to excuse Hamas's murderous homophobia He is a staunch defender (quite rightly) of gay rights in the UK but in attempting to absolve Hamas because the British passed a law 87 years ago is grotesque Jones lost the plot some time ago and is making that long dreary journey from interesting polemicist to tedious propagandist. He shoehorns Starmer-loathing, Tory-bashing and minority issue politics into everything he writes now. No nuance, no shades of grey and no real intellectual weight. Most of it is shouty tirades in print. For that reason I swerve him now. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 8:06:34 GMT
...large bets can shift markets when few bets are placed; and how these can be arbitraged in 2 'horse' races. So, place a big bet on the outsider; their odds shorten and the favourites lengthen with the result that a larger bet on the favourite can be placed ensuring a return whichever of the 2 contenders wins. In Hayekian terms this may be considered a market distortion and akin to an abuse of oligopsony. Difference being, though, that other buyers may enter should they wish so the strategy has risk hence regulation is not appropriate. Not sure why you used the word 'arbitraged' given that is not an arbitrage as the punter is exposed to an obvious risk that will prevent him/her locking in a profit. You'd pay the 'bid/offer'* spread on both bets and lock in a loss. It is sometimes possible to arbitrage between two betting sites (and that helps an individual bookie who has taken a large bet spread their risk) or create scenarios that are pretty locked in profit (eg bet on CON winning GE'17 but hedge that risk by backing a lot of specific seats where LAB might surprise like Canterbury and the other 'uni' seats in GE'17) However, I've highlighted the section which shows trying to manipulate the market in the way you suggested won't happen. I'm quite happy to take the other side of anyone trying to 'push' a market (or bookies odds) away from 'fair value' and a lot of others would be as well. No need to mention how Leave odds jumped around into the Brexit vote result. In 'thin' markets (eg just before a major bit of news) then markets can be quite choppy. Anyway, I now have some 'fun' money betting against CON winning in Mid.Beds as I reckon their chances are more like 30% than 47%. Hardly Canterbury'17 odds but worth a few quid IMO. LAB being the clear ABCON candidate in Tamworth means that is an 'easier' win for LAB IMO but at about 72% implied likelihood to win then that is fairly well priced in anyway (IMO). * With conventional bookies then the sum of the probabilities is always >>100% which is how they effectively make their profit on 'bid/offer' spread. Any 2-horse race is effectively a single price. EG if CON are 30% likely to win, then LAB are 70%. A conventional bookie that only lets you back winners will price those odds at say 40% and 80% and if a load of people back say CON they'll move those odds to say 50% and 70%. IMO it is easier to speak in terms of 'implied probabilities' but folks will need some basic maths skills to convert from bookies odds (or Betfair markets) to implied probabilities. Betfair make their money by keeping a small % of any winnings but you can back/lay odds and, since it is a 'market', you can sit on one side of the market and avoid paying the bid/offer spread (as I have been doing against CON in Mid.Beds) |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 17, 2023 8:42:37 GMT
The low tax party🤔
The Conservatives have fought every election at least since the 1980s as the party of low taxation. But, as the IFS report suggests, that is no longer plausible. It says that Rishi Sunak’s decision to freeze the income tax personal allowance at its 2021-22 level for four years in his March 2021 budget, and Jeremy Hunt’s decision last year to make that a six-year freeze, not a four-year freeze, is now set to raise £52bn by 2027-28 – the same as a 6p rise in basic rate and higher rate income tax. The IFS says:
If we instead calculate revenue based on the latest inflation forecasts from the Bank of England (August 2023) and assuming that beyond 2026Q3 inflation remains at 2%, it looks like the freeze to both income tax and NICs thresholds is now on course to raise £52bn in 2027–28 (or £43bn if subtracting the cost of the increase in the point at which employees and the self-employed pay NICs)
This is a huge tax rise. To give a comparison, the biggest single tax-raising measure in recent history was the June 2010 budget decision to increase the main rate of VAT from 17½% to 20%, which is estimated to raise £21bn in 2027–28. Or, to put it another way, other ways to raise roughly £52 bn of revenue include increasing both the basic and higher rate of income tax by 6p, or increasing the main rate of VAT from 20% to 26%.
Of course the vastly wealthy such as Sunakered doesn't get a personal allowance as his wealth and income is above the criteria, the same applies to his multi millionaire chancellor of exchequer.
So why bother when you don't benefit yourself and it's just your cleaner whose better off.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 8:55:22 GMT
Rich parents will pre-pay school fees to avoid the VAT and press picking up the other obvious way that Starmer-LABs plan isn't going to get anything like the revenues they hope - especially not in the first few years. The thing with VAT is you add it to some bills but you can also claim it back on various expenses - including historic expenses.
Keir Starmer could be forced to give money back to private schools under VAT ‘loophole’www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/private-schools-vat-tax-loophole-starmer-b2428712.html#That will vary by school of course (as the article highlights) but IMO it is quite likely that HMRC will receive a -ve net income from Starmer-LAB's plan to apply VAT to private school education fees, in the first few years at least. Combine that with some localities seeing local private school have to shut and pressure on local state school (noting press love anecdotes) then.. well, still plenty of time for Starmer to rethink that policy before having to learn the hard way. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 9:17:38 GMT
Polish people in the UK even more centre and centre left than in Poland itself, good to see
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2023 9:17:55 GMT
"Wages continued to grow at one of the fastest paces on record in August, raising fears that inflation will not come down as fast as expected by the Bank of England.
Official figures showed that average weekly earnings excluding bonuses increased by 7.8 per cent between June and August, down slightly from the growth of 7.9 per cent in the previous three-month period, which was revised up by the Office for National Statistics by 0.1 percentage points.
The ONS said that earnings including bonuses rose by 8.1 per cent, a dip from 8.4 per cent in July. The confirmation of the figures for July will have implications for the government’s planned increase to the triple lock state pension, which is due to rise in accordance with the July earnings figures.
Pay growth remains stuck at the highest since comparable records began in 2001, the ONS said, with the bonuses figure including the impact of one-off payments made to NHS staff and civil servants this year.
Earnings growth has now outstripped the rate of inflation for the past three months, helping to ease a two-year cost of living squeeze on British households. The ONS said that overall pay in the public sector rose by 6.8 per cent, and by 8 per cent in the private sector."
Times
today
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 9:20:26 GMT
Not much chance of any tax cuts without putting the UK economy at even bigger risk
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2023 10:05:45 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 10:19:26 GMT
Can't help thinking tories would be better to downplay their prospects rather than big them up
If they do win they can stilll celebrate, but if they lose they can downplay it
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Post by Mark on Oct 17, 2023 11:32:29 GMT
*** ADMIN ***
I will be starting a new main polling thread tomorrow, likely late afternoon or evening.
This is on the eve of the two, upcoming by-elections, in order that posts concerning the aforementioned are close to the top of the thread.
I'm hoping that there will be a new poll published between now and then, but, if not, will use the most recent poll (Deltapoll, published yesterday).
I will ask that, in the interim, no member starts such a thread. Should that happen, the thread will be deleted or, should it contain numerous posts, merged with the one that will be started by me.
As to the question I asked shortly after this thread was started, that being whether the main polling threads always be started by me (which would require a rule change), the majority of those that responded supported this stance.
Assuming that there is no change in support levels, that would come into effect at the end of the next polling thread.
Therefore, should any member support things staying as they are (IE any member can start a new polling thread), or if any member has, away from the heat of the moment, previously supported the change, but since changed their mind, there is still time to voice your opinion.
There is no need for those who have already expressed an opinion, but, not changed their minds (eithor way) to re-iterate their position as it has already been noted.
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Post by graham on Oct 17, 2023 11:42:04 GMT
Can't help thinking tories would be better to downplay their prospects rather than big them up If they do win they can stilll celebrate, but if they lose they can downplay it Re-MidBeds the Tories are now Odds on with both Betfair and SMarkets. |
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Post by johntel on Oct 17, 2023 11:56:19 GMT
PJW, One factor your helpful post did not address was how large bets can shift markets when few bets are placed; and how these can be arbitraged in 2 'horse' races. So, place a big bet on the outsider; their odds shorten and the favourites lengthen with the result that a larger bet on the favourite can be placed ensuring a return whichever of the 2 contenders wins. In Hayekian terms this may be considered a market distortion and akin to an abuse of oligopsony. Difference being, though, that other buyers may enter should they wish so the strategy has risk hence regulation is not appropriate. Yes, that's going to be in my second post, since the paper helpfully gives an example of exactly that happening in their chosen election. Hi pjw1961, Many thanks for your detailed and thoughtful post. I'll be on child-minding duties for the next couple of days and will reply when I get the time. Looking forward to reading your 2nd post  |
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 17, 2023 12:05:39 GMT
leftieliberal I stand by what I said. If you see this as a way of ridding these pages of my malign influence, then so be it. Your idea that latent criminality can be passed on through six generations before finding its expression in a referendum about the constitution is strongly suggestive of a criminal genotype, and there is no scientific basis for this whatsoever. Many of those transported were convicted of trivial crimes; hanging was the sentence for anything more serious. Some of those transported went on to contribute a great deal to the developing colony. @rafwan I don't believe in eugenics or as you expressed it "bad blood". That you alleged that I did is libellous. And I stand by what I said. All you are doing now is to try to minimise the allegation. Your use of phrases like "the criminal genotype" shows me that however much you deny it, your thinking is coloured by eugenics, which does not surprise me. |
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Post by shevii on Oct 17, 2023 12:10:21 GMT
Jones lost the plot some time ago and is making that long dreary journey from interesting polemicist to tedious propagandist. He shoehorns Starmer-loathing, Tory-bashing and minority issue politics into everything he writes now. No nuance, no shades of grey and no real intellectual weight. Most of it is shouty tirades in print. For that reason I swerve him now. I agree he is shouty and I don't like the podcasts with the waving hands and "energy" but he remains one of the better referenced of any of the Guardian comment writers when he does an article. Different comment writers have different roles of course- Hyde and Grace mostly humour, Rawnsley Westminister bubble, etc, but there are very few who give any appearance of being experts in their field or referencing to something we didn't know before. Monbiot one of the exemptions and maybe a few like Simon Jenkins and Larry Elliott to some degree at least. I'd say a lot of the centrist comment writers were pretty shouty and lacking nuance when Corbyn and brexit were hot topics. I think ultimately the comment section mostly has to be filed away as clickbait these days and/or telling their readers what they want to hear. I have literally never picked up anything from a Toynbee article that was new to me. On a centrist/LOC scale Jones will be the polar opposite to Toynbee and in that sense they have the same role for attracting readers who like what they say, but I do still normally come away from a Jones article with something I didn't previously know rather than being purely for the purposes of reinforcement of my beliefs. |
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Post by peterbell on Oct 17, 2023 12:13:19 GMT
Mark, as I was on holiday, I did not see the original vote. Can I therefore request that you add my name to those wanting you, as Administrator, to be the only person responsible for starting new threads.
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