neilj
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Posts: 6,499
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 15:34:41 GMT
Interesting, shows the efficiency of the ABT vote between Labour and Libdems in recent years has got better
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,499
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 15:40:56 GMT
Tory By-Election candidate seems of the usual standard
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Post by peterbell on Oct 17, 2023 15:50:20 GMT
I have given a like to the recent posts of both Steve and Neilj. While this may seem odd as at first glance they seem to oppose each other, let me explain. Like Steve and the 39 acedemics, I have thought that Starmer's previous comments were very pro Israel with little or no concern for the Palestinian people - suprising considering his background in law and what should be his humanitarian position. As I was out yesterday, I did not see Starmer's response to the PM and having now seen the video, I have to say that it was much more balanced and positive in pushing for more effort towards a two state solution.
Last week I felt that Starmer was more concerned with not upsetting some of Labs new voters than he was about the critical situation in Gaza but I feel happier that he has given more clarity to his position. It could well be that the news broadcasts have also omitted some of his previous support for the Palestinians as the news I saw last night only showed the first part of his speech.
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Post by barbara on Oct 17, 2023 15:50:35 GMT
Jones lost the plot some time ago and is making that long dreary journey from interesting polemicist to tedious propagandist. He shoehorns Starmer-loathing, Tory-bashing and minority issue politics into everything he writes now. No nuance, no shades of grey and no real intellectual weight. Most of it is shouty tirades in print. For that reason I swerve him now. One of several reasons why I won't give The Guardian any money (they are now asking for £5/month to support their journalism) is that I cannot ensure that it goes to specific journalists, such as John Harris, whose articles I always read. If the Guardian doesn't survive because of low subscriptions, then John Harris will be one of the losers. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2023 15:57:14 GMT
Interesting, shows the efficiency of the ABT vote between Labour and Libdems in recent years has got better The article I linked to yesterday that cited campaign expenditure for each party at recent by-elections suggests that tacit, if not overt, cooperation between Labour and the Lib Dems has been going on for some time. Quite effectively too. In Tamworth the Lib Dems have put up a paper candidate and are not campaigning seriously. I suspect, despite the headlines of ground warfare between the two parties in Mid-Beds, that the Lib Dems are slowly winding down. They say that they're not targeting Labour voters. Private polling may be telling them that they are out of the running. Accordingly I expect a very close two horse race between the Tories and Labour in mid Beds, with the Lib Dems some way behind. I will be stepping up my tales from the Tamworth campaign trail over the next two days, certainly on polling day when I will be checking in to the Labour Campaign HQ offices at 8.00am for a day dedicated to getting the vote out. The HQ is located at Tamworth Football Club. Known by the locals as "The Lamb". I joined a Zoom meeting GOTV briefing yesterday evening. Nothing being taken for granted but the team seem quietly confident. Hundreds of activists from all over the Midlands flooding in to the constituency now, particularly on Thursday. Tory campaign appears to be lacklustre although beware a solid Tory vote in the town. It isn't collapsing. If we lose it, it won't be for want of trying, that's for sure. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 16:06:14 GMT
Not my polity but it will be interesting to see the yield premium that investors demand to buy 'Scottish' debt (and what credit rating it is given)
Government bonds to issue in first for Scotlandwww.gov.scot/news/government-bonds-to-issue-in-first-for-scotland/Lots of other countries/unions have debt issued by states/provinces/municipalities so it is something that could be devolved down to lower levels of UK government as well (eg Greater Manchester Combined Authority). Whilst some investors might think there is a UK HMG 'guarantee' then at best it would implicit so folks can look to perhaps EZ market to see where different states debt trades (eg Italian 10yr bonds have a 2% premium to German bonds issued in the same currency) www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Oct 17, 2023 16:11:29 GMT
*** ADMIN *** Therefore, should any member support things staying as they are (IE any member can start a new polling thread), or if any member has, away from the heat of the moment, previously supported the change, but since changed their mind, there is still time to voice your opinion. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2023 16:17:46 GMT
*** ADMIN *** Therefore, should any member support things staying as they are (IE any member can start a new polling thread), or if any member has, away from the heat of the moment, previously supported the change, but since changed their mind, there is still time to voice your opinion. There is one already. Just below the new Owen Jones thread. 🤣 |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Oct 17, 2023 16:23:24 GMT
All a ok with me, but please oh please can you set us a separate thread for the Rugby World Cup - its even longer than the kickieball world cup. There is one already. Just below the new Owen Jones thread. 🤣 |
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,499
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 16:25:32 GMT
There is one already. Just below the new Owen Jones thread. 🤣 😀 |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 17, 2023 16:27:22 GMT
One of several reasons why I won't give The Guardian any money (they are now asking for £5/month to support their journalism) is that I cannot ensure that it goes to specific journalists, such as John Harris, whose articles I always read. If the Guardian doesn't survive because of low subscriptions, then John Harris will be one of the losers. he can always move to Novara… |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 17, 2023 16:27:44 GMT
Only kidding guys.
(I mean, maybe he could join Owen Jones’ channel instead…)
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Oct 17, 2023 16:32:05 GMT
Mark, as I was on holiday, I did not see the original vote. Can I therefore request that you add my name to those wanting you, as Administrator, to be the only person responsible for starting new threads. I didn’t spot that so me too please Mark. And me, please. I don't think I previously expressed a view on that issue). |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Oct 17, 2023 16:37:46 GMT
Interesting, shows the efficiency of the ABT vote between Labour and Libdems in recent years has got better The article I linked to yesterday that cited campaign expenditure for each party at recent by-elections suggests that tacit, if not overt, cooperation between Labour and the Lib Dems has been going on for some time. Quite effectively too. In Tamworth the Lib Dems have put up a paper candidate and are not campaigning seriously. . , well I guess the low efficiency in the 80's has a lot to do with SDP split from Labour etc, and in recent years the efficiency is due to the opposition parties making calculated decisions on whether to invest in a campaign or not based on winnability. Mid-Beds in the first one in a while where both LD and Lab thought they had a chance of winning - so the result will be interesting. I guess if there is a by-election in Wellingborough, given that the LDs have no real base/history in the seat, I would expect them to back peddle there. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 17, 2023 17:17:35 GMT
If the Guardian doesn't survive because of low subscriptions, then John Harris will be one of the losers. he can always move to Novara… What, and never be either seen or heard of again? 🫣🤣 |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 17, 2023 17:37:05 GMT
he can always move to Novara… What, and never be either seen or heard of again? 🫣🤣 Well if the fear is he has nowhere to go after the Guardian folding, surely it’s better than than nothing? Anyway, the mainstream media are declining (see PJ’s recent link to viewing figures) so the long-term future might be something like that anyway. Your favourite journalists on niche channels… |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 17:40:48 GMT
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Post by Mark on Oct 17, 2023 17:47:18 GMT
For those that are interested, this aired recently... The Mid Bedfordshire By-Election Candidate Debate URL for browsers : www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0glblj6Get_Iplayer command/Programme ID : get_iplayer --pid=p0glblj6 --type=radio |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 17, 2023 17:47:19 GMT
Europe urged to take 1m Gazans if it ‘cares about human rights so much’
“Europe should take in the one million people trying to flee Gaza if it cares “about human rights so much”, a senior Egyptian official reportedly told a European counterpart.
“You want us to take one million people? Well, I am going to send them to Europe. You care about human rights so much – well, you take them,” said the unidentified official.
The comment, first reported by the Financial Times, was made amid media reports suggesting the Egyptian government is refusing to accept the resettlement of Palestinian refugees in northern Sinai.
It came as Charles Michel, the European Council president, said the conflict could have “major security consequences” for Europe, with a “risk of onward migratory waves” if not handled with care.
To avoid a mass exodus from the Gaza Strip into Egypt, the Egyptian army has begun setting up positions close to the border, reinforcing it with barbed wire, expanding patrols and installing a concrete wall at the Rafah crossing with Gaza.
This means that, if Palestinians are allowed to cross into Egypt, they will be allowed only as far as the 8.5-mile buffer zone in Rafah.”
Telegraph
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,499
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 17:50:21 GMT
For those interested in betting odds ( for what they're worth)
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 17, 2023 17:56:43 GMT
Ukraine’s new American missiles may have devastated the Russian airforce
“While the world focuses on Gaza, and Putin visits his allies in China, we may be missing one of the most significant developments in the nearly two years of war in Ukraine.
Some weeks ago, the US Government confirmed that long-range precision artillery – the “Army Tactical Missile System”, or ATACMS – would be making its way to Ukraine’s armed forces.
Reports are now coming in of what appears to be a significant Ukrainian strike deep into occupied territory. Russian military bloggers are gloomily reporting that “one of the most serious blows of all time” has been dealt to the country’s air-force. If the strike – and the use of ATACMS – is confirmed, it will be a major development.
The airfields that have reportedly been targeted are deep behind the front-line, supposedly safe from attack. But the ATACMS system can strike targets with pinpoint accuracy at a range of up to 300kms. Not so safe after all.
We’ve already seen the havoc wreaked by the British Storm Shadow precision missile. Its range of 180kms has made the Black Sea fleet all but irrelevant, as it has had to scuttle back to ports deep in Russia. ATACMS now means that Russia will have to move its key air assets far back from the front lines. Its attack helicopters, which have done so much damage to the Ukrainian armoured forces, may now be out of range entirely.
Likewise, command posts will have to move so far back from the front-lines that they may become entirely ineffective in controlling the close battle. If the untrained, poorly armed and underfed conscripts in the trenches felt isolated before, their leaders will now be so far away that – to use the British army adage for absent commanders – they will have to send their washing forward.
…
It won’t just be helicopters and jets receiving gifts this Christmas courtesy of ATACMS. Russian artillery and its precision guided missile systems may all now be in range. If the flow of battlefield intelligence from the US, UK and Nato continues, we can expect a long string of successful attacks on high value Russian targets.
This won’t just be a morale boost for the Ukrainian military. It could well take the brakes off the counter-offensive. If the Ukrainian tanks don’t have to worry about attacks from the air, they can push on with greater urgency, break through the remaining Russian lines, and steam into Crimea.“
HAMISH DE BRETTON-GORDON in the Telegraph
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neilj
Member
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 18:00:58 GMT
I maybe wrong, buy I get the impression Dorries is just a tad upset with the Sunak 😀
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Post by hireton on Oct 17, 2023 18:09:23 GMT
It is being reported that the IDF have bombed a Christian run hospital in Gaza causing several hundred Palestinian deaths. This comes on top of confirmed bombings in southern Gaza. If so the Israeli Government is in danger of squandering a lot of goodwill.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 17, 2023 18:36:24 GMT
Andrew Mitchell also described the situation in the territory as a “looming humanitarian crisis” as he said “all of us must hope” that the US and the Israelis are able to reach an agreement that paves the way for the opening of the Rafah crossing into Egypt from Gaza."If there is a plan, I’m sure that it will be possible for the Egyptians to agree to it opening,” the minister told Times Radio. It was intersting listening to some arab spokesperson on the news. Its clear that what Egypt does not want is to be landed with millions of refugees. And thats why they have closed the border and kept it closed. But what Israel wants is to get rid of millions of refugees. If they cut off food and water as they have, then the choice they give Egypt is either to let in those refugees, or leave them in Gaza to die. So clearly Israel will not allow in humanitarian aid, because it is necessary the only option left is for pressure to be put on Egypt to save them by allowing them to go there. |
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Post by jib on Oct 17, 2023 18:48:13 GMT
For those interested in betting odds ( for what they're worth) Pretty sure the Tories are in for a hellish result. The Dorries letter indicated a halving of vote share, so c. 8,000 votes on Thursday in Mid Beds on a 30% turnout. Sure Labour will be looking at a comfortable majority. |
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,499
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Post by neilj on Oct 17, 2023 18:51:48 GMT
For those interested in betting odds ( for what they're worth) Pretty sure the Tories are in for a hellish result. The Dorries letter indicated a halving of vote share, so c. 8,000 votes on Thursday in Mid Beds. Sure Labour will be looking at a comfortable majority. The letter was 'leaked'for expectation management, so wouldn't take too much notice of it Mid-Bedfordshire will be tough with a split in the ABT vote in a Constituency that Labour already had a mountain to climb to overturn the tories |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 18:53:35 GMT
From Labour List:
‘Tory and Labour voters alike need clearer reasons to back Labour’
"The leadership’s current strategy is appeasing Tories"labourlist.org/2023/10/tory-and-labour-voters-alike-need-clearer-reasons-to-back-labour/A case of "No shit Sherlock" but ABCON is likely powerful enough reason to see Starmer-LAB stay comfortably ahead in the polls even if the result is simply Tory Plan B (as per article comment: “if you can’t beat them, join them” which IIRC I used to phrase as "if you can't beat them, become them" many moons ago) |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 17, 2023 19:03:00 GMT
For those interested in betting odds ( for what they're worth) Pretty sure the Tories are in for a hellish result. The Dorries letter indicated a halving of vote share, so c. 8,000 votes on Thursday in Mid Beds on a 30% turnout. Sure Labour will be looking at a comfortable majority. LAB are down to about 30% implied probability to win which means you can more than triple your money if you're right (but lose your bet if you're wrong) Of course no one has to bet and I'm not suggesting anyone does but people can put their money where their mouths are IF they want to. FWIW then I don't think CON are 56% likely to win and have been betting accordingly today. I'm not sure I'd totally write off the chances of the 'by-election specialists' and whilst I think LDEM probably have the least chance of winning then I prefer to bet against CON rather than back LAB - which is easier to do on a 'market' site than with conventional bookies. www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.215148472 |
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Post by hireton on Oct 17, 2023 19:18:10 GMT
A new dimension to the Peter Bone case:
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Post by Rafwan on Oct 17, 2023 19:26:20 GMT
leftieliberal I stand by what I said. If you see this as a way of ridding these pages of my malign influence, then so be it. Your idea that latent criminality can be passed on through six generations before finding its expression in a referendum about the constitution is strongly suggestive of a criminal genotype, and there is no scientific basis for this whatsoever. Many of those transported were convicted of trivial crimes; hanging was the sentence for anything more serious. Some of those transported went on to contribute a great deal to the developing colony. @rafwan I don't believe in eugenics or as you expressed it "bad blood". That you alleged that I did is libellous. And I stand by what I said. All you are doing now is to try to minimise the allegation. Your use of phrases like "the criminal genotype" shows me that however much you deny it, your thinking is coloured by eugenics, which does not surprise me. SO!! Game on! First you traduce my family’s ancestors with the unhinged suggestion that they are somehow responsible for the mindless referendum result last week. Then you insult me by precisely inverting the arguments I make, suggesting they mean the exact opposite! Then you insult me further by shunning my earlier imputed apology. Now you spit on my hand outstretched in friendship and reconciliation, brokered by the helpful interjection of wb61. It is too much and I am dusting down grandad’s single shot pistol again, for our dawn meeting. Or if you prefer duck down pillows, I think I could live with that. |
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