30-SEP 2023 : LAB 39% / CON 29% / LDM 12% / GRN 7%

[Mr Poppy]

link to table available at the bottom of their twitter thread or direct at:
t.co/1S17X8PWNR

[crossbat11]

What did we think about Sunak's interview with Kuennsberg this morning, folks?

I'll start us off. I didn't think he was very good.

And leave it at that for now.

[pjw1961]

Interesting that Trev has chosen to start a thread on the worst poll Labour has had in months

[leftieliberal]

A different view, also in The Observer, from an Opinium poll
www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/30/tory-turmoil-as-third-of-voters-desert-party-and-factions-launch-rival-manifestoes

It comes as exclusive polling for the Observer reveals that a third of those who voted Conservative in 2019 now intend to switch to other parties. It suggests that the Tories have lost voters in crucial areas – their southern heartlands and “red wall” seats in the Midlands.

The special poll, conducted by Opinium, finds that 34% of Conservative voters are currently intending to vote for other parties. Voters who backed the Conservatives in 2019 in the Midlands and south are now the least likely to stick with the party at the next general election – only 61% and 60% respectively will stay with the party. One in five voters who backed the Tories in 2019 in the south of England said they had switched to Labour or the Lib Dems.

In 2019 the Tories polled 44.7% of the vote; 66% (100-34%) of that corresponds to 29.5% which is within a couple of percent of current polling (so within MoE). This poll reinforces evidence from other polls that the Tories are polling consistently below 30%. 

This does tend to support a swing that is more proportionate than UNS.

EDIT: But on the downside among 2019 Tory voters, just 66% say they will back the Tories again, 12% will switch to Labour, 13% to Reform, 5% to the Lib Dems and 3% to the Greens. Less than half of the 2019 Tory backers (48%) think Conservative-led governments since 2010 have been successful, while 40% think they have been unsuccessful. The issues they regard as most important, such as the NHS, are those on which most believe the party they backed has performed worst.

[Deleted]

Oct 1, 2023 11:05:38 GMT leftieliberal said:

A different view, also in The Observer, from an Opinium poll
www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/30/tory-turmoil-as-third-of-voters-desert-party-and-factions-launch-rival-manifestoes

It comes as exclusive polling for the Observer reveals that a third of those who voted Conservative in 2019 now intend to switch to other parties. It suggests that the Tories have lost voters in crucial areas – their southern heartlands and “red wall” seats in the Midlands.

The special poll, conducted by Opinium, finds that 34% of Conservative voters are currently intending to vote for other parties. Voters who backed the Conservatives in 2019 in the Midlands and south are now the least likely to stick with the party at the next general election – only 61% and 60% respectively will stay with the party. One in five voters who backed the Tories in 2019 in the south of England said they had switched to Labour or the Lib Dems.

In 2019 the Tories polled 44.7% of the vote; 66% (100-34%) of that corresponds to 29.5% which is within a couple of percent of current polling (so within MoE). This poll reinforces evidence from other polls that the Tories are polling consistently below 30%. 

This does tend to support a swing that is more proportionate than UNS.

EDIT: But on the downside among 2019 Tory voters, just 66% say they will back the Tories again, 12% will switch to Labour, 13% to Reform, 5% to the Lib Dems and 3% to the Greens. Less than half of the 2019 Tory backers (48%) think Conservative-led governments since 2010 have been successful, while 40% think they have been unsuccessful. The issues they regard as most important, such as the NHS, are those on which most believe the party they backed has performed worst.

An interesting article.

For me the most significant quote is :-

"One former cabinet minister said: “What is our narrative? These things individually may be quite popular and eyecatching, but the fundamental question that we all have to answer on the doorstep is why would you give us five more years? I don’t think these policies, in isolation, answer that question.”

I think the lack of that narrative was apparent in Sunak's LK interview this morning. He got bogged down in far too much detail. I know its difficult when the interviewer is asking about specific policy announcements. But it sounded incoherent  because he reacts to questions with too much detail .

[leftieliberal]

Labour optimistic in ‘huge’ byelection in Rutherglen and Hamilton West
www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/01/labour-optimistic-in-huge-byelection-in-rutherglen-and-hamilton-west

Labour insiders have described the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection this week as the biggest vote since the last election, amid notable confidence they will win the seat from the SNP.

The claim has been made in internal discussions before the vote on Thursday, with Keir Starmer’s most senior advisers regarding it as by far the most important of three byelection campaigns currently under way. There will now be “a deluge” of activists and shadow cabinet ministers visiting the seat before polling day.

“It’s huge,” said one figure close to the campaign. “The party has made clear that of all the byelections, this is by far the most important.

[leftieliberal]

Michael Mansfield KC interview with Duncan Campbell
www.theguardian.com/law/2023/oct/01/michael-mansfield-kc-the-two-party-system-is-a-straitjacket
A good read but this paragraph in particular stands out:

Although never a member of the Labour party, he was once asked to stand by a north-east England constituency. “I said: ‘It’s very kind of you’ but the Labour party has never really been something that attracts me. I was conscious of highly principled people who had entered politics, and it had played havoc with their lives and their minds. I just feel you get corrupted by a system. People are criticising the present leader as only reacting to Tories. He is a very solid, bright, person, however he hasn’t got the charisma.” He is an admirer of Neal Lawson, co-founder of cross-party campaign organisation Compass, who has faced expulsion from the Labour party for tweeting about parties cooperating to defeat the Tories. He also supports proportional representation. “The two-party system is a straitjacket,” he says.

[Mr Poppy]

Modest improvement from a very low base. Of note no change in: "Removing small boats migrants quickly: 6% (=)"

TBC but that provides a lot of room for 'upside' surprise IMO (ie 94% of people currently think Rishi-CON are not doing well on that issue). 

Reducing inflation is probably the easiest one to see further progress but happy to admit very little that CON HMG could have done to slow inflation rising and very little of the drop in inflation will be due to them - but that is probably not all everyone will see it. Headwinds turning to tailwinds will likely benefit CON VI and might well see BoE cutting rates next year but we'll have to wait and see...

[neilj]

As it's a new month how about a new thread with the latest poll 😀

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Hi neilj , it will be interesting to see if the Tories see any bounce as a result of their conference. The image being portrayed in the media, appears to be one of internal division etc - which never goes down well with the electorate.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

I suggest we end the silliness and all start posting on this thread.

(you are all bad as each other some times - you remind me of my two sons bickering over the PS5)

[lululemonmustdobetter]

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/01/the-guardian-view-on-argentinas-presidential-election-the-danger-to-democracy-is-real

Democracy as a a model, does seem to be on the backfoot at the moment.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Oct 2, 2023 10:01:12 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

I suggest we end the silliness and all start posting on this thread.

(you are all bad as each other some times - you remind me of my two sons bickering over the PS5)

Would two PS5s help lulu? (Or get an xBox for variety)

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 2, 2023 10:36:16 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Oct 2, 2023 10:01:12 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

I suggest we end the silliness and all start posting on this thread.

(you are all bad as each other some times - you remind me of my two sons bickering over the PS5)

Would two PS5s help lulu? (Or get an xBox for variety)

They trashed the xBox. The older one has a PC - but they only have FC 24 on the PS5, which is what's currently causing all the grief.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Oct 2, 2023 10:42:55 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Oct 2, 2023 10:36:16 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Would two PS5s help lulu? (Or get an xBox for variety)

They trashed the xBox. The older one has a PC - but they only have FC 24 on the PS5, which is what's currently causing all the grief.

Ah, I see. doesn’t FC24 have a multiplayer mode?

[johntel]

Oct 2, 2023 10:48:59 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Oct 2, 2023 10:42:55 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

They trashed the xBox. The older one has a PC - but they only have FC 24 on the PS5, which is what's currently causing all the grief.

Ah, I see. doesn’t FC24 have a multiplayer mode?

Please start a new thread for this kind of technical discussion 

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 2, 2023 10:48:59 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Oct 2, 2023 10:42:55 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

They trashed the xBox. The older one has a PC - but they only have FC 24 on the PS5, which is what's currently causing all the grief.

Ah, I see. doesn’t FC24 have a multiplayer mode?

Its when they paly on that mode against each other that it really KO.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Oct 2, 2023 10:57:03 GMT johntel said:

Oct 2, 2023 10:48:59 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Ah, I see. doesn’t FC24 have a multiplayer mode?

Please start a new thread for this kind of technical discussion 

You might start a new thread for new thread ideas, John! 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Oct 2, 2023 10:59:53 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Oct 2, 2023 10:48:59 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Ah, I see. doesn’t FC24 have a multiplayer mode?

Its when they paly on that mode against each other that it really KO.

Lol, ok well I tried! 

[neilj]

Oct 2, 2023 10:01:12 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

I suggest we end the silliness and all start posting on this thread.

(you are all bad as each other some times - you remind me of my two sons bickering over the PS5)

Many thanks for your support, I don't want to be a 'splitter' so happy to go with the majority

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 2, 2023 11:24:54 GMT neilj said:

Oct 2, 2023 10:01:12 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

I suggest we end the silliness and all start posting on this thread.

(you are all bad as each other some times - you remind me of my two sons bickering over the PS5)

Many thanks for your support, I don't want to be a 'splitter' so happy to go with the majority

I just think it would help Paul out if we all act as he suggested we do.

I am coming to the conclusion that many men seem to reach peak emotional maturity between 45-55, and then start to regress. There are exceptions to this, and the rate of regression is not the same for all. But it does explain a lot. 

[Rafwan]

I have to say that i have found my twenty-three years of regression really quite liberating.

[moby]

The former PM Liz Truss has just made a speech, (standing room only) at a fringe meeting at the Tory conference in which she directly challenges the planned speech by the Chancellor this afternoon, the very same Chancellor that was appointed to pick up the pieces after the crash she caused a year ago. She mentioned the word 'unleash' many times and talked about 'unlocking the potential of the British people'. She talked about turbo charging home building, reducing energy bills and reducing the benefit bill and taxes. She says the average Briton will then be £9000 a year better off.....she ends by saying we all need to unleash our natural conservatism for this to happen. Haven't they had 13 years to achieve these goals already?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic-WhkHNMSw

[wb61]

I left this at the end of the last thread but, as we have moved, I decided I would try a second time

domjg



I first started taking an interest in politics when I was about 7 years old (not sure why) but your picture of Willy Brandt set off a memory of his visit in 1970 which was all over the news





I was then reminded that I liked him because he looked kind to me, but felt guilty because he was German, it was still commonplace to think of the war and Germany as the enemy at that time, and my grandfather who had fought in the war telling me we couldn't really think that way when I told him about my feelings. He told me that Mr Brandt was a new German and on our side. It must have had a lasting impact on me given my views on the EU.



As an aside on an earlier occasion i chose Nixon's opponent in the 1968 election as my favourite when the BBC was reporting on the election because I thought he looked a bit like Bob Hope (I Loved the Road To films) I am not sure of the resemblance now:

[neilj]

Looks like another by-election is in the offing and with Labour less than 4000 behind in Blackpool South they'll be fancying it
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-face-another-nightmare-election-31082177
Tory MP Scott Benton to be suspended in sleaze row with ANOTHER by-election on the cards
Blackpool South MP Scott Benton is being investigated by the Commons sleaze watchdog after he was filmed offering to lobby ministers and leak confidential information

[hireton]

RIP HS2:

[oldnat]

Oct 2, 2023 13:09:11 GMT hireton said:

RIP HS2:

"the re-allocation of funds to other transport projects in the north"

Is this the reinvigoration of Boris's Bridge from the north of Northern Ireland - even though that's to the south of Scotland?

[oldnat]

Quick! Clear the room!

[neilj]

So Truss gets a full house with adorning party members looking on. Meanwhile Government Ministers are giving speeches to mostly empty rooms
Labour will be loving this

[wb61]

Peston suggests HS" decision taken Number 10 says not


Doris Day has the measure of it:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUVT1NZtZPo&list=RDMMhTA21AdEZ74&index=27