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Post by jib on Oct 2, 2023 18:28:11 GMT
Trevor, the Tories are completely crazy and detached from reality.
Who knows what's going to happen as they hear the Red Labour Army approach.
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Post by hireton on Oct 2, 2023 18:38:38 GMT
I was interested to read the comments on the earlier thread about public spaces, quality of life etc in parts of continental Europe and that this was due to rich retirees, tourists etc.
Here is,a perspective from central Portugal. It is not a tourist hot spot. There are no significant numbers of rich retirees Expats, such as there are, are mainly homesteading, smallholders renovating derelict quintas.
Our small village and its surrounding hamlets has two thriving village shops, a bank, a GP and health centre, a pharmacy, a post office, a day care centre, a primary school, three cafes, two restaurants, a cultural centre, a village leisure centre with modern outdoor swimming pool and associated cafe. The streets and public spaces are kept immaculately by the junta de freguesia which also managed to issue our residency certificates in 24 hours despite my execrable Portuguese. We had superfast fibre broadband installed within days despite it requiring the installation of new poles and cabling ( our village in Scotland was in scope for installation possibly by 2025).
The UK needs to realise it is becoming a basket case.
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Post by James E on Oct 2, 2023 18:40:02 GMT
A little milestone was reached a few days ago: it is now more than 12 months since any poll showed a Labour lead of less than 10 points. The last such poll was from Kantar with fieldwork of 22-26 Sept 2022, and was Lab 39, Con 35. Just a few days later (28-29 Sept) , we had Lab 54, Con 21 with YouGov.
Looking back at previous Leaders of the Opposition, neither Jeremy Corbyn nor Ed Milliband ever managed even an entire month of 10%+ leads - although the latter came close at times. And even David Cameron managed to get "all 10%+" leads for just 4 consecutive months, from May-Aug 2008, and later another 3 months in June-Aug 2009.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2023 18:48:10 GMT
As is my wont, Just For Fun, I plugged those headline VI figures into Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries, and got a LAB OM of 66.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2023 18:52:15 GMT
Mark - It might be useful to have some guidance added to "the rules" regarding a reasonable frequency for the creation of a new 'main' polling thread to prevent them being created: (a) too frequently, (b) too infrequently or (c) to suit particular individuals based on specific polls or because they don't like the direction the thread has taken. Looking at past threads somewhere around the 300th page looks typical. If everyone knows that a new thread starts around then, there would be less surprise/resistance to someone starting one. This suggestion only makes sense if you see UKPR threads as arbitrary chunks of conversation of roughly equal length. If, on the other hand you see them as conversations about a change in political circumstance and/or polling, then the length of threads is irrelevant. |
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Post by jib on Oct 2, 2023 18:54:18 GMT
I was interested to read the comments on the earlier thread about public spaces, quality of life etc in parts of continental Europe and that this was due to rich retirees, tourists etc. Here is,a perspective from central Portugal. It is not a tourist hot spot. There are no significant numbers of rich retirees Expats, such as there are, are mainly homesteading, smallholders renovating derelict quintas. Our small village and its surrounding hamlets has two thriving village shops, a bank, a GP and health centre, a pharmacy, a post office, a day care centre, a primary school, three cafes, two restaurants, a cultural centre, a village leisure centre with modern outdoor swimming pool and associated cafe. The streets and public spaces are kept immaculately by the junta de freguesia which also managed to issue our residency certificates in 24 hours despite my execrable Portuguese. We had superfast fibre broadband installed within days despite it requiring the installation of new poles and cabling ( our village in Scotland was in scope for installation possibly by 2025). The UK needs to realise it is becoming a basket case. I was involved with a relatively minor Network Rail repair job a few years ago. The sort of job a local civils firm would have sorted out with a large excavator and a few HGV loads of stone from the quarry. The job was taken over by "consultants". I kid you not, the whole job increased in price by several 100%. Unbelievable. Someone is getting very rich. |
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Post by James E on Oct 2, 2023 19:00:59 GMT
As is my wont, Just For Fun, I plugged those headline VI figures into Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries, and got a LAB OM of 66. I did the same, but EC's figures for Scotland rather than 'SNP 3%', and got a 56 Lab majority. But if you add in Tactical Voting at 50% of Lab, LD and Greens, this magically turns into a majority of 128. (Con 29, Lab 39, LD 12, Grn 7 Ruk 7) www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=29&LAB=39&LIB=12&Reform=7&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=50&TVLIB=50&TVReform=&TVGreen=50&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=32.3&SCOTLIB=7&SCOTReform=2.1&SCOTGreen=3.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=36.7&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019nbbase |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2023 19:12:59 GMT
As is my wont, Just For Fun, I plugged those headline VI figures into Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries, and got a LAB OM of 66. I did the same, but EC's figures for Scotland rather than 'SNP 3%', and got a 56 Lab majority. But if you add in Tactical Voting at 50% of Lab, LD and Greens, this magically turns into a majority of 128. (Con 29, Lab 39, LD 12, Grn 7 Ruk 7) www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=29&LAB=39&LIB=12&Reform=7&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=50&TVLIB=50&TVReform=&TVGreen=50&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=32.3&SCOTLIB=7&SCOTReform=2.1&SCOTGreen=3.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=36.7&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019nbbaseA very fair point, James E . And several recent by-elections, (Mid-Beds. possibly excepted), have shown the electorate to be relatively sophisticated when it comes to selecting the ABCON candidate most likely to win the seat. Compared to my effort, your methodology gives LAB a further 31 seats, with LDEM gaining a further 21, taking them to 46, (calm down, steve!). |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 2, 2023 19:19:26 GMT
Mark - It might be useful to have some guidance added to "the rules" regarding a reasonable frequency for the creation of a new 'main' polling thread to prevent them being created: (a) too frequently, (b) too infrequently or (c) to suit particular individuals based on specific polls or because they don't like the direction the thread has taken. Looking at past threads somewhere around the 300th page looks typical. If everyone knows that a new thread starts around then, there would be less surprise/resistance to someone starting one. This suggestion only makes sense if you see UKPR threads as arbitrary chunks of conversation of roughly equal length. If, on the other hand you see them as conversations about a change in political circumstance and/or polling, then the length of threads is irrelevant. So you would be happy if I start a new thread tomorrow and then someone else starts a new one the following day? All I'm trying to get is some ground rules to prevent silly squabbles. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2023 19:35:37 GMT
This suggestion only makes sense if you see UKPR threads as arbitrary chunks of conversation of roughly equal length. If, on the other hand you see them as conversations about a change in political circumstance and/or polling, then the length of threads is irrelevant. So you would be happy if I start a new thread tomorrow and then someone else starts a new one the following day? All I'm trying to get is some ground rules to prevent silly squabbles. Significant changes dont ocurr day after day. In terms of wilful abuse I would rely on Mark to delete irrelevant threads. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 2, 2023 19:42:15 GMT
A little milestone was reached a few days ago: it is now more than 12 months since any poll showed a Labour lead of less than 10 points. The last such poll was from Kantar with fieldwork of 22-26 Sept 2022, and was Lab 39, Con 35. Just a few days later (28-29 Sept) , we had Lab 54, Con 21 with YouGov. Looking back at previous Leaders of the Opposition, neither Jeremy Corbyn nor Ed Milliband ever managed even an entire month of 10%+ leads - although the latter came close at times. And even David Cameron managed to get "all 10%+" leads for just 4 consecutive months, from May-Aug 2008, and later another 3 months in June-Aug 2009. On which note, I have updated my monthy Labour lead figure on the Polling Archive thread for September (18.4%, down a fraction on 19.1% in August). Labour has led for 22 months in a row but the last 13 months have been in double figures. This is unusual in polling history. There have been towering leads for the opposition in other parliaments, and some have more months during the parliament, but only Labour 1992-97 have actually exceeded that for continuous monthly double figure leads. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 2, 2023 19:44:55 GMT
So you would be happy if I start a new thread tomorrow and then someone else starts a new one the following day? All I'm trying to get is some ground rules to prevent silly squabbles. Significant changes dont ocurr day after day. In terms of wilful abuse I would rely on Mark to delete irrelevant threads. So what was the significant change that prompted us to need a new thread now? |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Oct 2, 2023 19:59:42 GMT
I haven’t suggested anything as far as I can remember (which is difficult when one is in constant pain**) I have simply viewed the shenanigans with a dignified contempt.  ** Please pm me with sympathy card and chocolate. |
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Post by graham on Oct 2, 2023 20:04:08 GMT
A little milestone was reached a few days ago: it is now more than 12 months since any poll showed a Labour lead of less than 10 points. The last such poll was from Kantar with fieldwork of 22-26 Sept 2022, and was Lab 39, Con 35. Just a few days later (28-29 Sept) , we had Lab 54, Con 21 with YouGov. Looking back at previous Leaders of the Opposition, neither Jeremy Corbyn nor Ed Milliband ever managed even an entire month of 10%+ leads - although the latter came close at times. And even David Cameron managed to get "all 10%+" leads for just 4 consecutive months, from May-Aug 2008, and later another 3 months in June-Aug 2009. On which note, I have updated my monthy Labour lead figure on the Polling Archive thread for September (18.4%, down a fraction on 19.1% in August). Labour has led for 22 months in a row but the last 13 months have been in double figures. This is unusual in polling history. There have been towering leads for the opposition in other parliaments, and some have more months during the parliament, but only Labour 1992-97 have actually exceeded that for continuous monthly double figure leads. The Tories did enjoy very commanding leads from December 1967 until September 1969 - though a few blips in the Autumn of 1968 - when the lead was briefly back in single figures - did prevent it being a period of 'continuous' double figure leads. |
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Post by hireton on Oct 2, 2023 20:06:27 GMT
The basket case keeps weaving:
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Post by graham on Oct 2, 2023 20:10:25 GMT
I do wonder whether Sunak would opt for an immediate Dissolution than face a leadership challenge.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2023 20:15:00 GMT
Significant changes dont ocurr day after day. In terms of wilful abuse I would rely on Mark to delete irrelevant threads. So what was the significant change that prompted us to need a new thread now? goodness it does exercise you ! Ask Mark if you're worried about it. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 2, 2023 20:35:38 GMT
Lie after lie after lie
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 2, 2023 20:45:35 GMT
I haven’t suggested anything as far as I can remember (which is difficult when one is in constant pain**) I have simply viewed the shenanigans with a dignified contempt. ** Please pm me with sympathy card and chocolate. 90% Cocoa will stop most people taking your chocolate, you might find |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2023 20:51:24 GMT
Well done Sophy Ridge for sticking with it. Epic floundering response from Coutinho. |
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Post by birdseye on Oct 2, 2023 20:52:07 GMT
I noticed a 20mph sign that had been deliberately defaced with black paint yesterday. I've never seen that before on any speed sign ever, in any country. You can't help thinking that this was criminal damage inspired by our own govt and PM for their short term advantage. Quite a thought, but that's the modern tory party for you. Or more likely that it was done by members of the public who strongly feel that the 20mph campaign is unacceptable. Remember the necklacing of the speed cameras? |
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Post by bardin1 on Oct 2, 2023 21:03:08 GMT
Or more likely that it was done by CRIMINALS who strongly feel that the 20mph campaign is unacceptable. Remember the necklacing of the speed cameras? Fixed that for you - you're probably right |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 2, 2023 21:15:57 GMT
On which note, I have updated my monthy Labour lead figure on the Polling Archive thread for September (18.4%, down a fraction on 19.1% in August). Labour has led for 22 months in a row but the last 13 months have been in double figures. This is unusual in polling history. There have been towering leads for the opposition in other parliaments, and some have more months during the parliament, but only Labour 1992-97 have actually exceeded that for continuous monthly double figure leads. The Tories did enjoy very commanding leads from December 1967 until September 1969 - though a few blips in the Autumn of 1968 - when the lead was briefly back in single figures - did prevent it being a period of 'continuous' double figure leads. Indeed; I chose my words with care. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Oct 2, 2023 21:17:58 GMT
Trevor, the Tories are completely crazy and detached from reality. Who knows what's going to happen as they hear the Red Labour Army approach. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 2, 2023 21:33:56 GMT
@isa
Well I have said that 40+ is a realistic proposition because of the toxicity of the tories.
If lib dem support can rise to around 15% despite being nearly 10% lower than in the 2000's it's entirely possible that this figure rises to approaching 60
This isn't an opportunity for a debate it's simply the figure that comes out on electoral calculus using the same figures for tactical voting and Labour and tory support.
If you tweak the tactical voting figure a bit it goes up to around 70 just 40 or so behind the tories.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 2, 2023 21:36:29 GMT
So what was the significant change that prompted us to need a new thread now? goodness it does exercise you ! Ask Mark if you're worried about it. On the contrary, I simply suggested that Mark might provide some guidance to avoid the sort of silliness where three people opened new threads at the same time. You are the one who has decided to try and make an issue of it, presumably becuase you saw it as criticism of Trevor specifically, which it was not. I take your answer as agreement there was no political event that required a new thread. It occurred on the whim of one member. A site that runs on the random whims of members will become chaotic very rapidly. I was suggesting setting some parameters that would allow any member - Trevor included - to create a new main thread without annoying others. |
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Post by RAF on Oct 2, 2023 21:38:50 GMT
Trevor presents all the best people paint brush or tooth brush or basil brush or whoever the fuck this anonymous Tory enabler is features prominently in Twitter under the heading " we are Jeremy Corbyn " Colour me surprised that he doesn't like Keir Starmer, the gentleman that Starmer is seen chatting to obviously didn't get the message And yet what this "enabler" says of the Forde report and racism in Labour is pretty accurate. The problem for @trevor is that the Tory record on racism is far worse than Labour's. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 2, 2023 21:45:40 GMT
RAFI'm not here to defend the Labour party, their members can do that, but it did seem to me it was gratuitously insulting to Starmer it's also a misrepresentation of the reason given for Dianne Abbott's suspension. It's standard fare from a Corbyn mega fan.
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Post by RAF on Oct 2, 2023 21:52:11 GMT
RAFI'm not here to defend the Labour party, their members can do that, but it did seem to me it was gratuitously insulting to Starmer it's also a misrepresentation of the reason given for Dianne Abbott's suspension. It's standard fare from a Corbyn mega fan. It really isn't. Forde himself was frustrated at Labour's lack of action on racism other than antisemitism. Even he could see that Labour was adopting differential treatment in this area, although it could be argued that the real differentiation for Starmer is allegations of wrongdoing by his friends and those of others. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 2, 2023 21:56:22 GMT
I noticed a 20mph sign that had been deliberately defaced with black paint yesterday. I've never seen that before on any speed sign ever, in any country. You can't help thinking that this was criminal damage inspired by our own govt and PM for their short term advantage. Quite a thought, but that's the modern tory party for you. Or more likely that it was done by members of the public who strongly feel that the 20mph campaign is unacceptable. Remember the necklacing of the speed cameras? Why would anyone in their right mind strongly feel that? In my village it will make the village more liveable and safer for children. These vandals are criminals who should be prosecuted to the full force of the law. You've just nicely confirmed for me that the modern Tory party is in cahoots with the basest of hoodlums. Party of law and order eh? What a laugh. |
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