11-AUG 2023 : LAB: 48% / CON: 24% / LDM: 10% / GRN: 6%

[steve]

Andrew Bowie angry because the Tory centric BBC aren't Tory centric enough.

youtu.be/XC9Iv_-vPZQ?si=qztuFIiEUhYsFNuK

[steve]

Organised crime gang Don arrested.

[steve]

The usual subjects
Attachment Deleted

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 25, 2023 8:33:52 GMT colin said:

Aug 25, 2023 8:11:55 GMT johntel said:

On the other hand the UK is highly significant in ensuring the defence of the EU and this will have increasing bearing in the coming years I suspect. 

The invasion of Ukraine and its effects have changed things utterly for Europe. Its energy supply . Its Trade. Its economies.

And as you say its geopolitical relationships. The expansion of BRICS is another piece in this emerging jigsaw.

I dont think anyone really understands how the final picture will look.

And then there is climate change. There is an article in the Times today of an Australian study of their future. It is terrifying -Higher temperatures. Agricultural output falling. Economic activity of workers falling. Productivity collapses. Population ages. Public Finances devoted more and more to disaster relief and welfare costs.

Firstly (for johntel ) then NATO is not the EU and US are by far the largest contributor to NATO and hence Europe's defence (as has been the case since WW2). UK didn't leave NATO and one silver lining of Putin's war is that NATO is now stronger and more united than the days when Macron called it 'Brain Dead'* I appreciate a future US president might not be so 'engaged' in defending Europe which is another reason why we need to speed up the 'incremental approach' to try to resolve the Ukraine War sooner rather than later/never. 

Section in bold is key point about needing to see policies to speed up transition to 'Net Zero' as being INVESTMENTS not a 'cost' in one-year of HMT/OBR income/expense. The Net Present Value (NPV) of 'dither+delay' costs far exceed the initial expense (most of which should be private sector but with HMG 'encouraging' the investment and providing some money as grants or loans).  

I won't get all technical with 'Hyperbolic discounting' as polling does IMO show a break with politicians views (ie people are becoming more aware of the urgency at the same time as CON and LAB moving towards 'delay'). There does, IMO, need to be a change to the fiscal rules and BoE mandate but creating more abundant zero carbon energy; insulating Britain; and investing in new Green tech** wouldn't cost the Earth and whilst UK is only 1% of Planet Earth there is no Plan(et) B.

The situation in the Panama Canal and across Europe shows why UK needs to become less reliant on agri-food imports and 'Grow it in Britain' (which means better use of our land, limiting population growth***, etc). 

* www.economist.com/europe/2019/11/07/emmanuel-macron-warns-europe-nato-is-becoming-brain-dead
** Which can be exported to help rWorld and help fix our balance of payments problem. It does however need an 'enabling environment' in UK and I can appreciate why a lot of companies like the bungs they'll get by setting up in US. We can't compete £ for $ with Biden but we can find areas where huge bungs aren't necessary. 
*** Ideally automation mitigates a lot of the problems of an 'ageing population' but we don't want to encourage high birth rates or excessive immigration (not even of the legal variety). IMO of course. 

[steve]

If organised crime Don gets back into office his fascist regime will support fellow Dictator Putin and actively undermine NATO.
Absolutely wonderful time to leave the mutual assistance European Union.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Aug 25, 2023 8:11:55 GMT johntel said:

Aug 25, 2023 7:57:26 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

On the issue of re-joining, not sure if this has been posted before:

ukandeu.ac.uk/five-reasons-why-rejoining-the-eu-is-a-difficult-path-to-follow/

A fairly objective assessment summary of the key challenges with re-joining. We wont be in a particularly strong bargaining position, and currently I see no evidence at all of EU members wanting us back. What an effing mess we have got ourselves into.

On the other hand the UK is highly significant in ensuring the defence of the EU and this will have increasing bearing in the coming years I suspect. 

Personally I think the UK will be welcomed back with open arms within 10 years.

European defence is most likely to remain anchored around NATO, which we are already in (as is Turkey), and isn't really a major factor when it comes to EU considering admitting new-members. Our significance in defence, like so many other aspects of power and influence, is on the slide (note the recent downgrading of our military capability by the US).

The main factor in favour of re-admitting us is economic and the size of our market and the overall EU market (which would strengthens the EU in trade negotiations). On the political side, we are currently seen as troublesome, untrustworthy, unreliable etc my own assessment is unless something really major happens in the next couple of years to shift EU sentiment in favour of the UK, re-joining within 10 years is highly unlikely. In addition, we still have about a year until we possibly get a govt that would even consider a move in this direction a possibility.  

We lost so much of our political capital, influence and goodwill during the Brexit process and Johnson leadership, which I fear means those arms will remain folded for some time to come.

[johntel]

@trevor "we need to speed up the 'incremental approach' to try to resolve the Ukraine War sooner rather than later/never".

Events, dear boy, events.

Such action could lead to a quick victory, the overthrow of Putin and the return of peace and prosperity to Europe and the world. On the other hand it may lead to nuclear war. Or anywhere in between.

Most likely for me is that the war will never be resolved, EU border security will become increasingly important and the security, economic and political benefits to the EU of UK rejoining will quite quickly outweigh the huffiness at our leaving.

[steve]

Gbeebies
Opinion poll out.

youtu.be/-0ehg4EX5qw?si=zmY55XdfljuCsq-m

[johntel]

Aug 25, 2023 9:31:54 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Aug 25, 2023 8:11:55 GMT johntel said:

On the other hand the UK is highly significant in ensuring the defence of the EU and this will have increasing bearing in the coming years I suspect. 

Personally I think the UK will be welcomed back with open arms within 10 years.

European defence is most likely to remain anchored around NATO, which we are already in (as is Turkey), and isn't really a major factor when it comes to EU considering admitting new-members. Our significance in defence, like so many other aspects of power and influence, is on the slide (note the recent downgrading of our military capability by the US).

The main factor in favour of re-admitting us is economic and the size of our market and the overall EU market (which would strengthens the EU in trade negotiations). On the political side, we are currently seen as troublesome, untrustworthy, unreliable etc my own assessment is unless something really major happens in the next couple of years to shift EU sentiment in favour of the UK, re-joining within 10 years is highly unlikely. In addition, we still have about a year until we possibly get a govt that would even consider a move in this direction a possibility.  

We lost so much of our political capital, influence and goodwill during the Brexit process and Johnson leadership, which I fear means those arms will remain folded for some time to come.

@ lulu I think you may be projecting some of your own views onto the EU here. A week is a long time in politics and 10 years is even longer... 

[graham]

Aug 25, 2023 7:59:59 GMT crossbat11 said:

Aug 25, 2023 7:30:57 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

The Dudley one will be a worry for the Tories in regards to the red wall - its in North Dudley (Ian Austin's old seat), which they currently hold. Reflects what we are seeing in polls in regards to the so called 'red-wall' seats of '19.

Baron Austin of Dudley now, I'll have you know, Ms Lemon. He was ennobled in the 2019 Dissolution Honours List and resigned his membership of the Labour Party at more or less the same time. He sits in the Lords as an Independent, but I think he's very much a latter day Reg Prentice now who could quite comfortably sit on the Tory benches. He may well go the whole hog one day. It certainly wouldn't surprise me.

Annoyingly, he is an Aston Villa season-ticket holder!

During the 2019 election campaign I received letters from Austin exhorting me to vote for Johnson and the Tories. In reply , I sent him an email advising him that Pierre Laval would be so proud of him.They had much in common - both started out on the Left and then swung to the hard Right.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

On EU willingness to re-admit us, while from the beginning of the year, the following article is sobering -

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/would-europe-want-us-back-dave-keating/

edit johntel - see above for my response to your suggestion that I may be projecting my own views onto the EU.

I thought I'd been clear that I think we will eventually re-join - just that it is highly unlikely to occur within the next 10 years. Yes events could drive us and the EU back together quicker - but there is no evidence of that occurring yet and no signs of enthusiasm from the EU side. Your confidence/belief seems to be based more on something akin to faith or hope.

[johntel]

Aug 25, 2023 9:45:48 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

On EU willingness to re-admit us, while from the beginning of the year, the following article is sobering -

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/would-europe-want-us-back-dave-keating/

I rather think that article is biased because the author is the French correspondent for the New European and France is likely to prove the biggest obstacle to rejoining. 

[johntel]

Aug 25, 2023 9:45:48 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

On EU willingness to re-admit us, while from the beginning of the year, the following article is sobering -

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/would-europe-want-us-back-dave-keating/

edit johntel - see above for my response to your suggestion that I may be projecting my own views onto the EU.

I thought I'd been clear that I think we will eventually re-join - just that it is highly unlikely to occur within the next 10 years. Yes events could drive us and the EU back together quicker - but there is no evidence of that occurring yet and no signs of enthusiasm from the EU side. Your confidence/belief seems to be based more on something akin to faith or hope.

You're right of course - but on the other hand I suspect that 'events' in the next 10 years are likely to push in that direction. I have no idea exactly what those 'events' will be - but 'events' there will surely be. 

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Aug 25, 2023 9:53:34 GMT johntel said:

Aug 25, 2023 9:45:48 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

On EU willingness to re-admit us, while from the beginning of the year, the following article is sobering -

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/would-europe-want-us-back-dave-keating/

I rather think that article is biased because the author is the French correspondent for the New European and France is likely to prove the biggest obstacle to rejoining. 

Not biased - realistic. France is an obstacle that has to be overcome, they can simply veto us. (He is actually the Brussels correspondent for France 24). Anglo-French relations aren't at their best atm.

[steve]

lululemonmustdobetter

Despite various iterations of cries of European union super state it was of course entirely within the remit of the UK to leave.
However it isn't entirely within the remit of the UK to rejoin.
That said if we have grown ups in government and they ask and act appropriately it would be surprising to see the European union fundamentally objecting.

The precursor of course to any return is to have a UK government that accepts the clear overwhelming majority view that Brexit was a mistake, doesn't pretend it wasn't but can somehow be fixed and generally stops behaving like a bunch of knobheads.

[Danny]

Aug 24, 2023 16:33:28 GMT Mr Poppy said:

PS Could you also state exactly what the terms of 'Rejoin.EU' would be (ie the annual cost, any vetoes, €?, etc)

It does seem likely that when we rejoin it will be on something like a Norway option at least initially. Where we will have no vetos to anything the EU wants to do. I'm glad you acknowldge this situation will be worse than what we enjoyed as full members and some repentence will be called for, for inflicting this loss of sovereignty on the nation.

We will do this for the same resons we joined in the 70s. Because its the only show in town. The UK cannot remain a world class power and not belong to a major trading block, and the only one which makes any sense is the one we are physically surrouned by.

[moby]

www.bylinesupplement.com/p/the-conservatives-are-for-the-rich?r=1yo22q&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Voters believe the Conservative Party is mostly concerned with the interests of the rich, and a new Government is required in order to save the economy, according to exclusive new polling for the Byline Supplement.

The poll, which was conducted by pollsters Omnisis, found that 54% of voters believe the Conservative party has handled the economy badly, compared to just 12% who believe they have handled it well.

Asked to choose which of a list of factors would be most likely to benefit the UK economy, a change of government was the most selected option, followed by tax cuts, new trade deals and rejoining the EU.

[graham]

The EU would have far more justification for applying a Veto to any application by the UK than France under De Gaulle had in the 1960s. There could never be a firm guarantee that a readmitted UK would not again change its mind some 30 or 40 years later. No UK government can bind its successors - so a government signing up on agreed terms in circa 2040 could not prevent a later Administration in - say - 2080 going down the same road as Farage et al.

[Danny]

Aug 24, 2023 16:38:50 GMT Mr Poppy said:

and from R&W. Whilst they don't 'weight' the answers by 'Most Important Issue' then they put a 👈 next to the top 3 (ie CON are seen as performing worst on the most important issues - noting Brexit doesn't even make the list!)

After the referendum there was a lot of analysis of why people voted as they did. It came up with lots of reasons and yet missed the most important one. If you asked people what they believed about brexit instead of why they chose as they did, then remainers said it would cost them money and leavers said it would not. That was the issue which correlated most strongly with actual vote. And yet hardly anyone said this was the reason for their vote.

My point is the same applies now. No one will put Brexit top of the list, because they regard it as settled. The moment it comes into play, someone credible to win makes a manifesto commitment to rejoin next parliament for example, then it will zoom back to the top.

I suspect the truth is labour does not want to spend the whole of the next parliament negotiating rerms to rejoin, even if promising that would give them a stonking record majority. In many ways it may be more likely that in 5 years con will be offering rejoin to defeat an entrenched and successful lab. They are very pragmatic.

[Rafwan]

Aug 25, 2023 8:07:44 GMT colin said:

Aug 24, 2023 17:12:45 GMT domjg said:

lol, I reckon they took inspiration from British built cars of the 1970s. There's been a similar attitude towards quality control..

A strange decade. Some great TV & Music.

But , as you say, those cars !-

carbuzz.com/features/the-worst-british-cars-ever-made

I sometimes wonder if Heath joined the EEC to get away from the Marina.

The Marina was a fab car, as was its splendid successor, the Ital. After my exploits with the wonderful Magnette ZB Varitone in the early seventies, I had a succession of four Marinas and one Ital, all of them automatics, one of them for eight months in Australia in ‘76. I imported the Ital from Belgium in ‘82, so I could avoid giving Mrs Thatcher so much tax. It was a great disappointment in 1990 when I needed a new one and found they were no more in production. I had to make do with an 1.8 3 series instead. Since 96, I have been slumming it with 5s.

[Deleted]

Aug 25, 2023 10:26:43 GMT Rafwan said:

Aug 25, 2023 8:07:44 GMT colin said:

A strange decade. Some great TV & Music.

But , as you say, those cars !-

carbuzz.com/features/the-worst-british-cars-ever-made

I sometimes wonder if Heath joined the EEC to get away from the Marina.

The Marina was a fab car, as was its splendid successor, the Ital. After my exploits with the wonderful Magnette ZB Varitone in the early seventies, I had a succession of four Marinas and one Ital, all of them automatics, one of them for eight months in Australia in ‘76. I imported the Ital from Belgium in ‘82, so I could avoid giving Mrs Thatcher so much tax. It was a great disappointment in 1990 when I needed a new one and found they were no more in production. I had to make do with an 1.8 3 series instead. Since 96, I have been slumming it with 5s.

Midget 1500s, (such as Isa), are fitted with modified Marina gearboxes. They are satisfyingly 'snickety', too, and add to the general hoot of driving a late Midget, (albeit they are frowned upon by purists of the marque). 

[steve]

graham
There is of course no guarantee that any current or future members of the European union might not change their minds in 30 or 40 years.
So what?
I would presume the abject failure of brexitania might discourage them don't you think and would definitely discourage a rejoined UK from being so fucking daft as to do it a second time!

[Mr Poppy]

Example of 'cake and eat it' polling. Whilst the %s aren't given then "new trade deals" is listed ahead of "rejoining the EU". I expect most intelligent people are aware that it is only because we left the EU that we can negotiate our own trade deals and that if we did ever Rejoin.EU then we might have to rip up some aspects of the new trade deals we have/will negotiate (eg the opening up of trade in service sectors - the sector that UK is 'best' at when it comes to UK exports) 

"Asked to choose which of a list of factors would be most likely to benefit the UK economy, a change of government was the most selected option, followed by tax cuts*, new trade deals and rejoining the EU"

As we see in places like Germany (who are reclaiming their old title of 'sick man of Europe') then folks have gone off the incumbent govt and want an 'Alternative' - and not the nice type of Alternative in Deutschland with AfD now consistently polling over 20% 

* Nice to see tax cuts high on the list, although we haven't seen the full list. Not sure if they put something like 'prioritising the move to Net Zero' on the list but I'd put that above tax cuts. If/when the full details of the poll are released hopefully someone will post them. 

[Danny]

Aug 24, 2023 18:43:36 GMT alec said:

A good lesson on how it's done. This thread, while US focused, details how covid was used to relax a swathe of regulations. Understandable at the time, but now that covid is no longer an issue, apparently, guess what? Those 'emergency relaxations' remain.

I see one item is "When teachers started dying, becoming disabled, or quitting... the federal government relaxed teaching requirements."

yes, its funny how that has been happening in the UK too, starting years before covid was even heard of. A while back the PGCE was introduced as a standard qualification in how to teach which all state teachers must have. Its a year's course, including a period of apprenticeship working in schools as a teacher.

So the funny thing is that since it was introduced we have now had the invention of the teaching assistant. ie someone unqualified who can assist in teaching a class or operate under the direction of a teacher. Stretched now to include operating unassisted during a teaching session but under more remte guidance. So in other words, the regulation has been quietly relaxed again.
Add to that that most new teachers do not last in the job very long, then the one year apprenticeship becomes a significant proportion of their total teaching.


Luckily most teachers still die of old age, though some may still be working part time when they do because of the extreme shortage. But plenty leave because of stress brought on by terrible working conditions.

This morning's news again mentioned schools absences, and claimed a growing number of people not attending. They mentioned in particular people with learning issues, who will not get help in schools because there is no money to do so. It isnt surprising therefore if this group sees it as wholly pointless attending. I know of one example of a child with a terminal illness, who was nonethless expected to attend school. Presumably if they didn't then it would form part of these truancy statistics. With the benefits of the NHS fewer children die of such diseases, or die so soon, and so they will all be contributing to this steadily growing number of non atendees.

But apart from that the recent exam results showed worse results outside London. There are three or four possibile explanations I can think of.

1) London teachers all conspired to cheat. I dont see this as likely, but its an explanation.
2) London is simply better resourced. Definitely possible.
3) There is an actual difference in the ability of kids attending in London. If London attracts the brightest and the best adults to work there, then assuming intelligence is hereditary, we might expect cleverer children.
4) London kids are better motivated. Again this might be because they have successful motivated parents. A passed on trait but not a genetic one.


Regardless, it struck me as very concerning if what we are seeing is parents in some places turning against education as pointless. Although of course they may be absolutely correct, the recent trend to expanded uinversity education is not helpful for most of those kids in terms of knowledge needed for their career. It might be teaching them to be more liberal, but then again it could be the internet which is responsible for that because it allows you to break out of your background. Remainers and leavers on here seem unable to agree, but that are exchanging ideas. The PGCE seems basically to have failed to improve teaching standards, so its just a waste of time and money. Except it helped enlarge the further education industry, which obviously has its own reasons to want to continue to exist. A drain on society resources however, which could have been used in making wind turbines, or inventing energy storage systems. Or building extra houses, or practicing medicine.

[Danny]

Aug 24, 2023 21:22:53 GMT alec said:

.Much of the vaunted 'green finance' revolution has revolved around developing products and systems for carbon credits, and a great deal of that effort has been a gigantic waste of time, for the climate, but very profitable for the finance sector.

I recall a program on R4 talking about this maybe 10-20 years ago. Its not new. We should remember how much money was made by US banks selling worthless securities to the world in 2008, and we should also remember in the last couple of years how much money has been made by the financial sector on hedging contracts for energy. Its a huge generic fraud, and UK plc is heavily invested in it.

[Mr Poppy]

IMO there is no need to go back through some of the specific seats where EC's prediction looks a bit off* but FWIW then...

* Quick look suggests the 'Bristol' issue has changed on the 'Old' map as well as the 'New' one so they possibly made a few methodology changes to their model as well? Still quite a lot of time before GE'24 so TBC of course. EC's prediction model is pretty useful tool but obviously is based on many assumptions, notably GE'24 result being based on current polling.

[Danny]

Aug 25, 2023 0:02:11 GMT pjw1961 said:

Final local government by-election:

BRISTOL UA; Bishopston & Ashley Down (Green hold)

Green 1294 (50.2%) -3.2
Labour 981 (38.1%) +10.6
L Dem 184 (7.1%) -5.5
Con 91 (3.5%) -3.0
TUSC 26 (1.0%) new

Not much sign of the mooted Green surge in Bristol there - decent swing to Labour.

Swing against the incumbent though and more swing against libs than con. It looks very much like another example of voters piling up behind the tactical most likely challenger, rather than principled labour support.

[somerjohn]

Rafwan: "The Marina was a fab car, as was its splendid successor, the Ital."

Not sure about fab, but certainly perfectly adequate as a Cortina-equivalent. I never had one, but have fond memories of a rapid trip with a bunch of mates to the Swedish grandprix ('73? '74?) in a 1.8 coupé, as the slightly-fastback 2-door was called. We drove for many autobahn miles at its top speed of 95 or so. Nothing went wrong except on the return trip, all the camping gear stuffed in the boot had pulled one of the rear light connections off, and we were stopped by the German police (who were polite, friendly and waved us on our way once we fixed the light).

But I did run two Allegros. Both 1.5 estates, and I don't remember anything going wrong with either of them, although the first had a slight water leak into the front passenger footwell in torrenial rain. Really useful cars, with that OHC engine and 5-speed gearbox, and I liked the quirky look ('hearse' was the disparaging description). I did huge mileages in them.

Finally, to lend support to Isa's Midget fan club, I also enjoyed the two Midget 1500s my wife ran (first Flame Red, circa 75, second [Polar?] white, 76 or 77). A wet camping weekend in Wales with the two of us and our English Setter squeezed in recalls to mind its cosy charms.

[graham]

Aug 25, 2023 10:46:26 GMT steve said:

graham
There is of course no guarantee that any current or future members of the European union might not change their minds in 30 or 40 years.
So what?
I would presume the abject failure of brexitania might discourage them don't you think and would definitely discourage a rejoined UK from being so fucking daft as to do it a second time!

The point is that the UK has already left the EU having previously negotiated entry terms! We have form on this , and it would be very surprising if EU states did not retain serious reservations about our ability to honour indefinitely any agreement reached.

Objectivity is very difficult on the issue - particularly for firm Europhiles such as yourself and the most ardent Eurosceptics at the other extreme. Moreover  predicting the distant future is not likely to be very productive. 'Events' will happen - perceptions will change over time partly in response to those 'events.'  The idea of leaving the EU back in the 1980s and 1990s would generally have been viewed as fantasy - only a small minority saw it then as a serious option or possibility - but it happened!

[Danny]

Aug 25, 2023 8:33:52 GMT colin said:

Public Finances devoted more and more to disaster relief and welfare costs.

Where the absurd costs of covid lockdown will be seen as the height of stupidity because of the money wasted for so little gain.