11-AUG 2023 : LAB: 48% / CON: 24% / LDM: 10% / GRN: 6%

[oldnat]

[Deleted]

Nice to see jen engaging more fully on UKPR2 after some occasional forays from the sidelines. Clearly some strongly held opinions, forthrightly expressed, but also some thought-provoking stuff. Sadly, the recent interchange with c-a-r-f-r-e-w might as well have been in Swahili from my perspective.

[pjw1961]

Final local government by-election:

BRISTOL UA; Bishopston & Ashley Down (Green hold)

Green 1294 (50.2%) -3.2
Labour 981 (38.1%) +10.6
L Dem 184 (7.1%) -5.5
Con 91 (3.5%) -3.0
TUSC 26 (1.0%) new

Not much sign of the mooted Green surge in Bristol there - decent swing to Labour.

[oldnat]

Aug 25, 2023 0:02:11 GMT pjw1961 said:

Final local government by-election:

BRISTOL UA; Bishopston & Ashley Down (Green hold)

Green 1294 (50.2%) -3.2
Labour 981 (38.1%) +10.6
L Dem 184 (7.1%) -5.5
Con 91 (3.5%) -3.0
TUSC 26 (1.0%) new

Not much sign of the mooted Green surge in Bristol there - decent swing to Labour.

Not that I know anything of Bristolian politics, but with the English Greens still getting over 50% of the vote, Labour's being the recipient of anti-Green voters from Con & LD hardly seems to be something to crow about!

[Deleted]

Aug 24, 2023 23:43:44 GMT oldnat said:

As technophobes go, you might not be surprised to hear I'm further along the scale than most. Having said that, a recent trip to Italy required me having to download train tickets to Gatwick, and easyJet boarding passes, to my £20, (in Feb 2020), Alcatel 'smart' (sic) phone. A few years ago, I'd have just baulked at the prospect, but having dipped my toe in the water, I found it fairly straightforward in process and it all worked very well on my trip, even with such a rubbish phone. It clearly is the future as long as all the tech works, which it did for me. It would obviously have been a complete nightmare if it hadn't, but I can only speak as I find.

[Deleted]

Aug 25, 2023 0:13:44 GMT oldnat said:

Aug 25, 2023 0:02:11 GMT pjw1961 said:

Final local government by-election:

BRISTOL UA; Bishopston & Ashley Down (Green hold)

Green 1294 (50.2%) -3.2
Labour 981 (38.1%) +10.6
L Dem 184 (7.1%) -5.5
Con 91 (3.5%) -3.0
TUSC 26 (1.0%) new

Not much sign of the mooted Green surge in Bristol there - decent swing to Labour.

Not that I know anything of Bristolian politics, but with the English Greens still getting over 50% of the vote, Labour's being the recipient of anti-Green voters from Con & LD hardly seems to be something to crow about!

I note that this ward seems to be part of Thangam Debbonaire's Bristol West constituency, where she currently enjoys a 28,000 majority over her closest (Green) opponent. I suspect her sleep tonight won't be significantly impacted by this result.

[jen]

Aug 24, 2023 20:58:04 GMT mercian said:

Aug 24, 2023 15:29:05 GMT jen said:

Some answers for you:
1) You are lying
2) You are wrong. The EU will simply wait for the demographic changes. They have already started. It's coming faster than you can imagine.

1) I'm not lying, though I might be mistaken. There is a difference. I seem to remember something about 'no cherry-picking' which is why I had that impression.
2) I admire your facility to accurately see the future. All I said is that Rejoining is not inevitable. What is, apart from death and taxes?

Indeed there is a difference between lying and being mistaken. Yet you "seem to remember" something, and you had an "impression", and you state it as if it were a fact. That makes you a liar.

You could have said "I thought that..." or even "I believe that..." (though I would have laughed at you for that!), but you chose not to, and stated stuff that you had made up in your head as if it were a fact, That makes you a liar.

You are clearly an old man lost in a new world. I would like to have sympathy with you. But you harmed my children, so I don't.

[steve]

pjw1961   Impressive result in the IOW from 0 to 48% for the home team.

Here's one of the things we don't see as a result of brexit.

Cancer researchers, the regimes continuing stupidity in refusal to rejoin horizon is exacerbating the brain drain caused by the hostile environment of brexitania.

www.theguardian.com/society/2023/aug/25/uk-facing-brain-drain-of-cancer-researchers-after-failure-to-join-eu-scheme


jen
I too find it difficult to see how it's possible to seem to remember something that never happened, when the reality was that the European union were always prepared and publicly stated several times to agree a Norway style arrangement.

[steve]

In th traitor lies about everything news.
At Fulton county jail the traitor self reported his height and weight at 6ft 3 and 215 pounds, interesting as he self reported his weight just two months ago when facing his civil trial as a rapist at 6ft 2 and 240 pounds.

Estimates from his physical appearance suggest a height of under 6 ft 1 and around 260 pounds.

Pathological liar to the last

Here's the traitor standing next to President Barack Obama
President Obama is 6ft 1

[steve]

Aggregate Result of the 40 Council By-Elections Since LE2023:

LAB: 13 (-3)
LDM: 10 (+4)
GRN: 7 (+4)
CON: 5 (-6)
IND: 4 (+4)
LOC: 1 (-1)
SNP: 0 (-2)

[pjw1961]

Aug 25, 2023 0:13:44 GMT oldnat said:

Aug 25, 2023 0:02:11 GMT pjw1961 said:

Final local government by-election:

BRISTOL UA; Bishopston & Ashley Down (Green hold)

Green 1294 (50.2%) -3.2
Labour 981 (38.1%) +10.6
L Dem 184 (7.1%) -5.5
Con 91 (3.5%) -3.0
TUSC 26 (1.0%) new

Not much sign of the mooted Green surge in Bristol there - decent swing to Labour.

Not that I know anything of Bristolian politics, but with the English Greens still getting over 50% of the vote, Labour's being the recipient of anti-Green voters from Con & LD hardly seems to be something to crow about!

The relevance was that there has been discussion on this site regarding the possibility of the Greens gaining a seat in Bristol (the boundaries are changing which complicates the position). Given the Labour/Green starting position in 2019 for that to happen you would need to see the Greens storming ahead, hoovering up Labour voters unhappy with Starmer's shift to the right. One by-election only, but as I say, no evidence that is happening.  

[neilj]

The Green Party together with 'It's Our Herefordshire' were in control of my local authority from 2019-2023
One of the big problems in Hereford was and is traffic congestion
The Greens came in promising all sorts of things, including much better bus services and free public transport for children going to school
In reality this didn't happen, indeed public transport got worse and school busses were a non starter
They did put in some cycle lanes, but cyclists didn't like them, indeed called them dangerous
They did cancel the bypass, which was finally going to be built with financing from central Government agreed
Result congestion got even worse
Come the 2023 most of the Greens and It's Our Herefordshire were voted out
The tories bucked the National trend and got in promising to reinstate the bypass
Lib-dems also did well, who were also in favour of the bypass
The point I'm making is it's easy for Opposition parties to make grand promises, but harsh economic reality makes carrying them out much more difficult
In short if you over promise and under deliver the public do remember and will punish you at the next election

[crossbat11]

Aug 25, 2023 5:21:14 GMT steve said:

Aggregate Result of the 40 Council By-Elections Since LE2023:

LAB: 13 (-3)
LDM: 10 (+4)
GRN: 7 (+4)
CON: 5 (-6)
IND: 4 (+4)
LOC: 1 (-1)
SNP: 0 (-2)

Nothing much to see here, I wouldn't have thought, Steve. Local council by-elections conforming to the age-old pattern of Labour under-performance and Lib Dem over-performance. Incumbency effect probably causing Tory woes. They have a history of over-performing in local council by-elections too.

My position on these elections is that much as they add welcome gaiety to the UKPR nation, they are psephological moonshine!

After the 2023 local council elections, very much more of a nationwide exercise of the vote, and with a larger turnout of voters too, Labour became the largest political party in local government. They won those elections in terms of council gains and increased councillors quite comfortably. And on projected national vote share too.

[pete]

Regarding re-join.
I can't see us re-joining the EU anytime soon. Possibly in 15/20 years?
I do however see closer and closer alignment where we become more and more of a rule taker than maker.
Particularly as more and more brexit voters die off and many of those that are left see they've been conned.

[crossbat11]

Aug 25, 2023 6:57:43 GMT neilj said:

The Green Party together with 'It's Our Herefordshire' were in control of my local authority from 2019-2023
One of the big problems in Hereford was and is traffic congestion
The Greens came in promising all sorts of things, including much better bus services and free public transport for children going to school
In reality this didn't happen, indeed public transport got worse and school busses were a non starter
They did put in some cycle lanes, but cyclists didn't like them, indeed called them dangerous
They did cancel the bypass, which was finally going to be built with financing from central Government agreed
Result congestion got even worse
Come the 2023 most of the Greens and It's Our Herefordshire were voted out
The tories bucked the National trend and got in promising to reinstate the bypass
Lib-dems also did well, who were also in favour of the bypass
The point I'm making is it's easy for Opposition parties to make grand promises, but harsh economic reality makes carrying them out much more difficult
In short if you over promise and under deliver the public do remember and will punish you at the next election

I think a similar thing has happened in Brighton, hasn't it, where incumbency has taken its toll on the reputation and popularity of the Greens.

www.theargus.co.uk/news/23514132.green-party-lose-control-brighton-hove/

That's politics for you.

[Rafwan]

steve

Can’t let this pass. You must not aggregate percentages. It is arithmetic nonsense.

[mandolinist]

Aug 25, 2023 0:02:11 GMT pjw1961 said:

Final local government by-election:

BRISTOL UA; Bishopston & Ashley Down (Green hold)

Green 1294 (50.2%) -3.2
Labour 981 (38.1%) +10.6
L Dem 184 (7.1%) -5.5
Con 91 (3.5%) -3.0
TUSC 26 (1.0%) new

Not much sign of the mooted Green surge in Bristol there - decent swing to Labour.

Decent swing to Labour, but, Green's still the largest party on the City Council.

There was a huge effort by Labour to get activists in from the across the city, I think they will be really disapointed by the result. I am no longer a member of the Labour Party, and haven't been able to actively campaign for some time due to health issues, but I received over twenty communications from the Party asking for help to "regain control of the City Council."

With this area moving to Bristol North West a large Green voting segment of Bristol's population is nudged into a much more marginal constituency, if I was Darren Jones I would be concerned that the Geens could win enough votes to make the seat very unsafe. On the other hand, the Conservatives are nowhere to be seen in the area, so maybe it would be safe for me to vote Green. . .

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Aug 24, 2023 23:20:40 GMT pjw1961 said:

First two local by-election results:

DUDLEY MBC; St James’s (Lab gain from Com)
Lab 860 (49.3%) +9.7
Con 719 (41.2%) -12.6
Ind 84 (4.8%) new
Grn 50 (2.9%) new
LD 32 (1.8%) -4.7

I have done the changes from 2021, which was the seat contested, rather than from the May 2023 result.


ISLE OF WIGHT UA; Wootton Bridge (Lib Dem gain from Vectis)
Lib Dem 475 (47.9%) New
Con 291 (29.3%) - 2.5
Vectis 178 (17.9%) -29.4
Green 48 (4.8%) - 8.7

(Balance of change was from an independent)

The Dudley one will be a worry for the Tories in regards to the red wall - its in North Dudley (Ian Austin's old seat), which they currently hold. Reflects what we are seeing in polls in regards to the so called 'red-wall' seats of '19.

[steve]

Rafwan
Hi
Address any complaints you might have to election maps☺

Having said that they aren't percentages they're seats won.

[Rafwan]

steve

Haha! Ok, sorry to doubt you! (It is of course ok if you use the raw data and recompute; I mistook yours for back-of-envelope re-figuring of percentages. Silly me!)

[lululemonmustdobetter]

On the issue of re-joining, not sure if this has been posted before:

ukandeu.ac.uk/five-reasons-why-rejoining-the-eu-is-a-difficult-path-to-follow/

A fairly objective assessment summary of the key challenges with re-joining. We wont be in a particularly strong bargaining position, and currently I see no evidence at all of EU members wanting us back. What an effing mess we have got ourselves into.

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 24, 2023 21:42:57 GMT mercian said:

Aug 24, 2023 16:33:28 GMT Mr Poppy said:

* Campaigned in my case. Can't speak for the other 2. I voted CON in GE'15 to hold a democratic vote (which was supported by all main parties); Leave in EURef'16; CON in GE'17 (although in fairness to Corbyn he had said Brexit was settled); then even joined CON as a member ahead of Maybot resigning to ensure I voted for the more Brexity option for CON leader; then CON in GE'19 of course. Hard of thinking types might think the process would be quicker in reverse - I dunno - give it a go and lets find out. 

I was a member of UKIP and campaigned in the referendum and local elections where I stood as a candidate twice. I voted Brexit in 2019 in a safe Labour seat in order to keep the pressure on Boris.  The idea being that even though Mr Farage stood his party down in a lot of seats, if the Tories saw that there was still a sizable Brexit vote it would help to concentrate their minds. 

As discussed many times them UKIP (then BXP) applied a lot of 'influence' on CON policies - from actually putting EURef in a manifesto all the way through to 'Get(ting) Brexit Done'.

As I found out again yesterday when you ask any Rejoiner what the 'cunning plan' to Rejoin is then you get nothing. Demographics might mean it is a 'once in a generation' vote and fair enough. Let's review into GE 2046

Davey has stated LDEM are not a Rejoin Party but might look to join SM one day. Greens are vague on timing but sound a bit more committed to 'full fat' EU. Starmer wants to 'Make Brexit Work'. All sources provided - no lies - nothing made up (unlike the 'fake gotchas' that some indulge in) - no personal attacks. 96% of VI intend to vote for parties than want to 'Stay Out'.

However, given the lack of interest about Brexit that we see in 'Most Important Issues' polling then I suggest we don't have to go through the Brexit/Rejoin issue again on the main thread unless/until a time when a main party (including LDEM and Green) state Rejoin will be their policy for the next parliament (ie something in their GE manifesto). At that point it might impact polling but if no one beyond some low appeal 'start-ups' (eg Rejoin.EU party and Gina Miller) wants to Rejoin within the foreseeable future (ie this/next HoC) then IMO it is a waste of time discussing it on the main thread.

NB I haven't 'forgotten' about SNP and Scotland. If they did happen to become 'Kingmakers' then IMO they would prioritise IndyRef2 not EURef2. For those keen to move to the EU to retire then perhaps first move to Scotland and try to ensure SNP get into a position of 'influence' over Westminster PM - or use the advice and links I've posted before that show how it is still possible to move to Spain (although no longer 'free' to do so). 

[crossbat11]

Aug 25, 2023 7:30:57 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Aug 24, 2023 23:20:40 GMT pjw1961 said:

First two local by-election results:

DUDLEY MBC; St James’s (Lab gain from Com)
Lab 860 (49.3%) +9.7
Con 719 (41.2%) -12.6
Ind 84 (4.8%) new
Grn 50 (2.9%) new
LD 32 (1.8%) -4.7

I have done the changes from 2021, which was the seat contested, rather than from the May 2023 result.


ISLE OF WIGHT UA; Wootton Bridge (Lib Dem gain from Vectis)
Lib Dem 475 (47.9%) New
Con 291 (29.3%) - 2.5
Vectis 178 (17.9%) -29.4
Green 48 (4.8%) - 8.7

(Balance of change was from an independent)

The Dudley one will be a worry for the Tories in regards to the red wall - its in North Dudley (Ian Austin's old seat), which they currently hold. Reflects what we are seeing in polls in regards to the so called 'red-wall' seats of '19.

Baron Austin of Dudley now, I'll have you know, Ms Lemon. He was ennobled in the 2019 Dissolution Honours List and resigned his membership of the Labour Party at more or less the same time. He sits in the Lords as an Independent, but I think he's very much a latter day Reg Prentice now who could quite comfortably sit on the Tory benches. He may well go the whole hog one day. It certainly wouldn't surprise me.

Annoyingly, he is an Aston Villa season-ticket holder!

[Deleted]

Aug 24, 2023 17:12:45 GMT domjg said:

Aug 24, 2023 17:07:48 GMT steve said:

lol, I reckon they took inspiration from British built cars of the 1970s. There's been a similar attitude towards quality control..

A strange decade. Some great TV & Music.

But , as you say, those cars !-

carbuzz.com/features/the-worst-british-cars-ever-made

I sometimes wonder if Heath joined the EEC to get away from the Marina.

[johntel]

Aug 25, 2023 7:57:26 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

On the issue of re-joining, not sure if this has been posted before:

ukandeu.ac.uk/five-reasons-why-rejoining-the-eu-is-a-difficult-path-to-follow/

A fairly objective assessment summary of the key challenges with re-joining. We wont be in a particularly strong bargaining position, and currently I see no evidence at all of EU members wanting us back. What an effing mess we have got ourselves into.

On the other hand the UK is highly significant in ensuring the defence of the EU and this will have increasing bearing in the coming years I suspect. 

Personally I think the UK will be welcomed back with open arms within 10 years.

[crossbat11]

Aug 25, 2023 8:07:44 GMT colin said:

Aug 24, 2023 17:12:45 GMT domjg said:

lol, I reckon they took inspiration from British built cars of the 1970s. There's been a similar attitude towards quality control..

A strange decade. Some great TV & Music.

But , as you say, those cars !-

carbuzz.com/features/the-worst-british-cars-ever-made

I sometimes wonder if Heath joined the EEC to get away from the Marina.

Disgraceful. I'll not hear a word said against the Morris Marina, nor its bastard son the Morris Ital.

The Austin Allegro was another classic. I persuaded my Dad to buy one on the BL Cars Employee Discount Scheme.

He never quite forgave me until the day he died!

P S. When you say Heath and the Marina, are you referring to Broadstairs? Morning Cloud and all that.

[steve]

The cars are coming back

[steve]

I recall my first experience of the classic that was the " Hillman Avenger "This was around 1982 so it must have been a few years old.
We were using it as a general purpose car at West End Central I opened the door to do an interior check and the door fell off!
My colleague said " it's always doing that but normally the wing mirror falls off at the same time. "

[pjw1961]

Aug 25, 2023 7:26:40 GMT mandolinist said:

Aug 25, 2023 0:02:11 GMT pjw1961 said:

Final local government by-election:

BRISTOL UA; Bishopston & Ashley Down (Green hold)

Green 1294 (50.2%) -3.2
Labour 981 (38.1%) +10.6
L Dem 184 (7.1%) -5.5
Con 91 (3.5%) -3.0
TUSC 26 (1.0%) new

Not much sign of the mooted Green surge in Bristol there - decent swing to Labour.

Decent swing to Labour, but, Green's still the largest party on the City Council.

There was a huge effort by Labour to get activists in from the across the city, I think they will be really disapointed by the result. I am no longer a member of the Labour Party, and haven't been able to actively campaign for some time due to health issues, but I received over twenty communications from the Party asking for help to "regain control of the City Council."

With this area moving to Bristol North West a large Green voting segment of Bristol's population is nudged into a much more marginal constituency, if I was Darren Jones I would be concerned that the Geens could win enough votes to make the seat very unsafe. On the other hand, the Conservatives are nowhere to be seen in the area, so maybe it would be safe for me to vote Green. . .

I have a suspicion that the Greens best shot at winning seats in Bristol may come at the end of a term of Labour government if the mood is 'Labour is a disappointment' rather than at the beginning when it looks likely to be 'kick the Tories out'. Caroline Lucas gained Brighton Pavilion in 2010 in those sort of circumstances. 

[Deleted]

Aug 25, 2023 8:11:55 GMT johntel said:

Aug 25, 2023 7:57:26 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

On the other hand the UK is highly significant in ensuring the defence of the EU and this will have increasing bearing in the coming years I suspect. 

The invasion of Ukraine and its effects have changed things utterly for Europe. Its energy supply . Its Trade. Its economies.

And as you say its geopolitical relationships. The expansion of BRICS is another piece in this emerging jigsaw.

I dont think anyone really understands how the final picture will look.

And then there is climate change. There is an article in the Times today of an Australian study of their future. It is terrifying -Higher temperatures. Agricultural output falling. Economic activity of workers falling. Productivity collapses. Population ages. Public Finances devoted more and more to disaster relief and welfare costs.