steve
Member
Posts: 12,708
|
Post by steve on Aug 23, 2023 22:29:39 GMT
mercian You know as well as I do that there weren't majority votes for pro Brexit parties in either 2017 or 2019 if we were to treat them as confirmation then Brexit should have been cancelled or subject to a confirmatory referendum and pro remain confirmatory vote parties won 54% of the vote in the 2019 European union elections. If you go down that particular route presumably if for example Labour had as a policy rejoin the European union and forms a government with a large majority on around 40% of the vote then you'd be happy that we rejoined as this would then be the "settled will of the people" The Brexit referendum was held on the basis of a majority of votes cast winning. It's not confirmed by a minority of votes cast for leaving at subsequent elections.
|
|
|
|
Post by eor on Aug 23, 2023 22:36:05 GMT
oldnat "I haven't seen the detail of Curtice's seat projections..." Neither have I, but the seat figures match up exactly to a simple UNS, and he is using the 2019 boundaries. So SNP and Con each down 8%, LD down 3%, Lab up 16%. So, for example, Glasgow Central becomes: Lab 49% (+16) SNP 41% (-8) LD 2% (-3) Con 1% (-8) The very crude proportional swing calculation I have (on the old boundaries) also aligns pretty much with regard to SNP and SLAB; SLAB on 22 seats but with 5 or 6 seats each for SLAB and SNP that would have majorities of less than 1500 votes and so at these kind of levels of support the volatility in the seat outcomes looks really substantial for the number of seats there are. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,708
|
Post by steve on Aug 23, 2023 22:37:07 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by jib on Aug 23, 2023 22:41:16 GMT
Trevor One person , one vote, one time, that's it you've had your chance now off you trot, want another vote, changed your mind , what do you think this is a democracy? Well let's see - there was the referendum in 2016 won by Leave with a record vote for anything ever in the UK. Then in 2017 the Tories won a GE having said they would implement the referendum result. May 2019 the EU elections were won by UKIP. In December 2019 the Tories won a GE on a platform of 'Get Brexit Done'. How many goes do you want? Best of 9, as Remain has already lost 4? Ok, opinion polls say that there is currently a majority who say it was a mistake, but an opinion poll isn't an election and they also say that it is not an important issue. There were many times while we were members of the EEC/EU when Leave had a majority in opinion polls. The main parties all ignored it, so UKIP rose. Well put. If the rejoiners want that referendum, they need to campaign for it. Most people are fed up of the Brexit debate and are getting on with the reality = barely perceptible change. As you say, opinion polls are just that. The hard reality of a referendum was fought and won- a clear and democratic decision. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2023 22:41:50 GMT
The Jibster and Trevor double act firing off on all cylinders. A joyous time to be alive on UKPR. The descent continues apace. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Aug 23, 2023 22:44:56 GMT
steveEach election that I quoted was won by Leave on the terms under which it was run. Referendum - overall majority, 2017 - FPTP, 2019 EU - PR, 2019 GE - FPTP. So not only did Remain lose 4 times, but also under 3 different voting systems. Job done. It couldn't be clearer. As Mr Poppy says, campaign for Rejoin if that's what you want. It might take 40 years though. I believe you're a LibDem at the moment, and that their ultimate aim is to rejoin the EU. If you want it to be in their manifesto for the next GE go to their party conference and either vote for or propose a motion to do just that. Good luck.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Aug 23, 2023 22:49:29 GMT
Well put. If the rejoiners want that referendum, they need to campaign for it. Most people are fed up of the Brexit debate and are getting on with the reality = barely perceptible change. As you say, opinion polls are just that. The hard reality of a referendum was fought and won- a clear and democratic decision. đź‘Ť Spot on. |
|
|
|
Post by moby on Aug 23, 2023 22:50:46 GMT
Trevor One person , one vote, one time, that's it you've had your chance now off you trot, want another vote, changed your mind , what do you think this is a democracy? Well let's see - there was the referendum in 2016 won by Leave with a record vote for anything ever in the UK. Then in 2017 the Tories won a GE having said they would implement the referendum result. May 2019 the EU elections were won by UKIP. In December 2019 the Tories won a GE on a platform of 'Get Brexit Done'. How many goes do you want? Best of 9, as Remain has already lost 4? Ok, opinion polls say that there is currently a majority who say it was a mistake, but an opinion poll isn't an election and they also say that it is not an important issue. There were many times while we were members of the EEC/EU when Leave had a majority in opinion polls. The main parties all ignored it, so UKIP rose. All those votes were in a narrow period before the effects of Brexit were demonstrated. I'm hoping the younger generations of voters will have a different view of Brexit, especially when they see how shite it is. |
|
|
|
Post by jen on Aug 23, 2023 22:59:53 GMT
Sonny Jim in Bangor lied about Leave and has no regrets. No surprise there. After all, you proved to everybody that leaving the EU had absolutely no ill-effects with your holiday in Portugal where you got through passport control just as easily as before. And the site bigot can still buy booze and fags as easily as before. So... scientists, artists, fishing industry, car industry, whatever... fuck 'em... you're alright and it's my children and grandchildren who will have to pay for this, so you think you have shafted us...
We will never forgive or forget. If you die before you pay for your lies Mr. Superstate, die knowing your children and grandchildren will pay...
And as for Brownshirt Trevor... "Anybody who complains about not being allowed to vote is a cry baby"... you embody how pathetic the Conservative Party has become, with your fact-free trolling. The country needs decent, ethical, right of centre representation. We need to find a broad consensus, just as in the post-war years. The current Conservative Party is incapable of representing decent conservative people.
What does the current Conservative Party stand for? Corruption, misogyny, xenophobia and general (and in particular, economic) incompetence.
The current Conservative Party stands for the values my family (generally conservative) fought against 1939-45.
Now, it would be very nice if you could all get back to talking about polling.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Aug 23, 2023 23:00:11 GMT
mobyAs jib said above, there is barely perceptible change for most people. They can still holiday in the EU if they wish, we still trade with the EU. It's possible that a small part of current inflation might be down to Brexit but EU countries are suffering too, largely because of the War of Putin's Ego*. Though it's close, Germany is currently in recession and we're not. If Brexit was so catastrophic, shouldn't we be in a deeper recession? * For younger readers that is a reference to the 18th century War of Jenkins' Ear.
|
|
|
|
Post by moby on Aug 23, 2023 23:02:22 GMT
Well let's see - there was the referendum in 2016 won by Leave with a record vote for anything ever in the UK. Then in 2017 the Tories won a GE having said they would implement the referendum result. May 2019 the EU elections were won by UKIP. In December 2019 the Tories won a GE on a platform of 'Get Brexit Done'. How many goes do you want? Best of 9, as Remain has already lost 4? Ok, opinion polls say that there is currently a majority who say it was a mistake, but an opinion poll isn't an election and they also say that it is not an important issue. There were many times while we were members of the EEC/EU when Leave had a majority in opinion polls. The main parties all ignored it, so UKIP rose. Well put. If the rejoiners want that referendum, they need to campaign for it. Most people are fed up of the Brexit debate and are getting on with the reality = barely perceptible change. As you say, opinion polls are just that. The hard reality of a referendum was fought and won- a clear and democratic decision. It wasn't clear. It was very close and as a result it was divisive and damaging to the future well being of this country. There is now no unity of purpose, there is division, anger and vitriol. That is the legacy of Brexit. Few who voted bear the other side any good will or compromise. My hope is that the younger generation of voters will see things differently. You are seriously deluded if you think Brexit resulted in barely perceptible change. The numbers just don't show that and our international standing and influence as a country has taken a big hit. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Aug 23, 2023 23:03:25 GMT
jenWhy are you so vituperative? It's not good for you.
|
|
|
|
Post by jen on Aug 23, 2023 23:07:19 GMT
Rejoin will happen. It's inevitable. There is no need for debate. There is only need to wait for enough of the economically unproductive voters to die. Demographic change. Deal with it. You can't stop it.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Aug 23, 2023 23:08:26 GMT
mobySo losing 4 times by 3 different methods wasn't clear? 🤣 The vitriol all seems to be coming from the losers. What happened to the concept of being a good loser? I certainly bear no ill will towards the losers provided they comport themselves with decorum. "You are seriously deluded if you think Brexit resulted in barely perceptible change. The numbers just don't show that" 🤣 That's up there with @fecklessmisers best quips!
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Aug 23, 2023 23:11:50 GMT
Rejoin will happen. It's inevitable. There is no need for debate. There is only need to wait for enough of the economically unproductive voters to die. Demographic change. Deal with it. You can't stop it. Fine. If that's the will of the people in however many years' time it will be. Don't hold your breath. I wonder whether the terms of the future referendum will be that some large majority is required as some Rejoiners have retrospectively said that 2016 should have had? |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,137
|
Post by domjg on Aug 23, 2023 23:17:37 GMT
Is that the wailing of old, embittered leavers I can hear as they swirl down the plughole of history while we sit on the cusp of realignment and with a clear majority recognising that's what's needed? jib mercian, obnoxious Trev, you stole from me and my family and I want my stuff back. I'm still very angry with you about it. However I think I'm likely to get it too, sooner than any of you lot realise. Reading your bs this evening has reminded me of the rage I felt in the early days. It's still there. There is nothing democratic about vague, binary, unregulated referenda. They are the tools of tyrants and those seeking to whip up discord from post ww1 and Nazi Germany to modern Switzerland. Btw more people also voted remain than voted for any party previously in a representative election.. |
|
|
|
Post by jen on Aug 23, 2023 23:22:21 GMT
jen Why are you so vituperative? It's not good for you. I am not in the slightest bit bitter, even though your lies harmed my children, and your insults hurt other quite innocent people. Your time has passed old man, enjoy what time you have left causing damage to others. And I am in the best of health, eminently cheerful, and enjoying making some very good (from my perspective, I'm sure you'd hate it, but hey, that's the nature of the beast) art that is proving to be quite popular. I just take it as my civic duty to call out bigotry and lies wherever I see them. Particularly where the offenders are so smug as to repeat it again and again. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Aug 23, 2023 23:27:34 GMT
Thanks for your reply steve . In light of your polling stuff, I note what others have mentioned earlier about CON retaining 6 seats in Scotland in the next Westminster election, but I think that would be a good result for them if it happened, given wider current polling. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Aug 23, 2023 23:31:51 GMT
Sonny Jim in Bangor lied about Leave and has no regrets. No surprise there. After all, you proved to everybody that leaving the EU had absolutely no ill-effects with your holiday in Portugal where you got through passport control just as easily as before. And the site bigot can still buy booze and fags as easily as before. So... scientists, artists, fishing industry, car industry, whatever... fuck 'em... you're alright and it's my children and grandchildren who will have to pay for this, so you think you have shafted us... We will never forgive or forget. If you die before you pay for your lies Mr. Superstate, die knowing your children and grandchildren will pay... And as for Brownshirt Trevor... "Anybody who complains about not being allowed to vote is a cry baby"... you embody how pathetic the Conservative Party has become, with your fact-free trolling. The country needs decent, ethical, right of centre representation. We need to find a broad consensus, just as in the post-war years. The current Conservative Party is incapable of representing decent conservative people. What does the current Conservative Party stand for? Corruption, misogyny, xenophobia and general (and in particular, economic) incompetence. The current Conservative Party stands for the values my family (generally conservative) fought against 1939-45. Now, it would be very nice if you could all get back to talking about polling. |
|
|
|
Post by jen on Aug 23, 2023 23:32:51 GMT
Rejoin will happen. It's inevitable. There is no need for debate. There is only need to wait for enough of the economically unproductive voters to die. Demographic change. Deal with it. You can't stop it. Fine. If that's the will of the people in however many years' time it will be. Don't hold your breath. I wonder whether the terms of the future referendum will be that some large majority is required as some Rejoiners have retrospectively said that 2016 should have had? Fine. Move the goalposts. Seriously... that all you got? hahaha! How about this... 60/40 majority required, but if achieved, everybody who campaigned for Leave in the last referendum, including you, forfeits all of their assets (property, savings, whatever...) as a small contribution towards the economic damage that you have caused. (Hey, we could go full Farage/Braverman and strip you of your citizenship too!) Deal? Come on... I am sure you are sooooo confident of winning... |
|
|
|
Post by moby on Aug 23, 2023 23:33:42 GMT
moby As jib said above, there is barely perceptible change for most people. They can still holiday in the EU if they wish, we still trade with the EU. It's possible that a small part of current inflation might be down to Brexit but EU countries are suffering too, largely because of the War of Putin's Ego*. Though it's close, Germany is currently in recession and we're not. If Brexit was so catastrophic, shouldn't we be in a deeper recession? * For younger readers that is a reference to the 18th century War of Jenkins' Ear. Don't agree. I've posted links to you showing a hit on GDP between 3-4%. Our numbers now always seem worse than our neighbours even with the war and COVID. The bigger point is that politically anyone can see the country is now riven with division; Scotland and now even Wales are increasingly dissatisfied with the Union, within the country the different generations hate each other. Internationally our influence and prestige has taken a hit. We no longer have influence with the US in Europe. We no longer have free movement in the countries closest to us. Cooperation in all sorts of areas with our nearest neighbours is no longer there because there is no good will or common purpose. For instance we had 24 return agreements with EU neighbours regarding illegal immigration. All those are now gone. You seriously think the French can't police the beaches of northern France? That's utter bollox. Fact is they choose not to, despite all the tax payer money we try and bribe them with to pay for their security. They let the gangs operate because they can as they know we now have no legal recourse to stop them. Anybody knows if you want influence with your neighbours you have to sit at the table where the decisions are made. Opting out is just an act of self harm. It's just basic common sense. |
|
|
|
Post by moby on Aug 23, 2023 23:38:05 GMT
moby So losing 4 times by 3 different methods wasn't clear? 🤣 The vitriol all seems to be coming from the losers. What happened to the concept of being a good loser? I certainly bear no ill will towards the losers provided they comport themselves with decorum. "You are seriously deluded if you think Brexit resulted in barely perceptible change. The numbers just don't show that" 🤣 That's up there with @fecklessmisers best quips! I see you selectively disregarded my point that all those methods you describe were in a short time frame? |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Aug 23, 2023 23:59:41 GMT
Don't agree. I've posted links to you showing a hit on GDP between 3-4%. Our numbers now always seem worse than our neighbours even with the war and COVID. The bigger point is that politically anyone can see the country is now riven with division; Scotland and now even Wales are increasingly dissatisfied with the Union, within the country the different generations hate each other. Internationally our influence and prestige has taken a hit. We no longer have influence with the US in Europe. We no longer have free movement in the countries closest to us. Cooperation in all sorts of areas with our nearest neighbours is no longer there because there is no good will or common purpose. For instance we had 24 return agreements with EU neighbours regarding illegal immigration. All those are now gone. You seriously think the French can't police the beaches of northern France? That's utter bollox. Fact is they choose not to, despite all the tax payer money we try and bribe them with to pay for their security. They let the gangs operate because they can as they know we now have no legal recourse to stop them. Anybody knows if you want influence with your neighbours you have to sit at the table where the decisions are made. Opting out is just an act of self harm. It's just basic common sense.
If they wish to retain the UK Union, those who advocate its retention might wish to address the issues that cause that dissatisfaction. Any ideas on that? |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Aug 24, 2023 0:13:42 GMT
Those who are reliant on the views enunciated by the Westminster based parties (and the media which promulgate them) will, of course. dismiss the views of Oxford Professor Danny Dorling.
With a “lower proportion of children living in poverty than the most affluent region of England”, Scotland could be starting “a far faster move towards equality than we have experienced in any year since the 1930s”
www.insider.co.uk/news/scotland-helping-prevent-britain-from-30735057
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2023 0:22:18 GMT
Just been catching up with the wonderful 1976 BBC production of 'I Clavdivs' on BBC Four in glorious HD. So much more vivid than I remember it. They look like a bunch of amateurs compared to some of the stuff on here tonight, though.
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Aug 24, 2023 0:30:47 GMT
Just been catching up with the wonderful 1976 BBC production of 'I Clavdivs' on BBC Four in glorious HD. So much more vivid than I remember it. They look like a bunch of amateurs compared to some of the stuff on here tonight, though. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Aug 24, 2023 2:03:01 GMT
within the country the different generations hate each other. Where do you get that one from? I don't hate anyone really. Apart from on here I've rarely encountered anyone who really hates anyone else. and from a later post: "I see you selectively disregarded my point that all those methods you describe were in a short time frame?" What about the forty years or so when a significant proportion wanted to leave the EU and were ignored? And anyway why should things that happen within a short timeframe be ignored? On that basis we could ignore Labour's GE wins from 1997-2005 and go back to Wilson in 1976 or whenever. Oh, hang on, that was a short timeframe too. Perhaps back to Walpole? He was PM for 21 years I seem to remember. Is everything since then invalid? I'd like to say that this site is at it's best when its largely quite well-educated and knowledgable people discuss things rationally without hatred and abuse. For instance on the Brexit situation instead of hurling abuse, I'm sure that we could have a rational and even productive discussion on the pros and cons of rejoining EFTA for instance, or other compromises. Why not try? Abuse isn't going to convert anyone, but a rational discussion might achieve at least a grudging agreement on both sides, |
|
|
|
Post by jen on Aug 24, 2023 2:27:36 GMT
Oh the irony.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,480
|
Post by Danny on Aug 24, 2023 3:16:49 GMT
Very interesting, given the strong association between prior covid and ischaemic heart disease. Latest data from the CMI again show significantly high excess deaths in the latest figures, up 5% on the pre pandemic level, at a time when it really should be much lower, due to the pandemic 'weeding out' effect. um...the tweet you posted shows deaths in july have fallen pretty consistently since 2003. On the basis of this data there is no evidence covid killed anyone at all! Nor does it tell us anything about relative prevalence of different causes of death because these are only quoted for one month. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,480
|
Post by Danny on Aug 24, 2023 3:42:14 GMT
jib - solidarity with the new avatar 👍 I quite like my current one and Brexit is ssssooo last decade but if the BABies are still crying then why don't they take it up with Starmer or Davey. If they tell them to F*ck off then Gina Miller will gladly take their votes in GE'24 as even Count Binface has moved on. View Attachment Dont understand your point or poster. It is a core part of democracy that the same questions are put to voters as often as they think fit. 5 years seems to be about the longest delay chosen, some things every 3 years. Normally it is politicians who believe the voters disagree with them who try to stop new votes being held. Is that your position then, that you believe the uk wants to rejoin the eu but you want to prevent them being able to do so? |
|
