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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 23, 2023 19:05:49 GMT
I hope nobody is going to post about Battyโs team being FOUR NIL UP against a Scottish footy team. Still some time to go plus a trip to Villa to come for Hibs so they could pull it back I suppose.  ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ FIVE NILโฆ.. Time to dust the old passport off, I think. Villa on European Tour again. Just like the good old days. We'll be running round the Bull Ring with the Cup, we'll be running round the Bull Ring with the Cup. (Pissed up). UTV |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 23, 2023 19:16:53 GMT
shevii , I fear that Tory budget cuts since 2010 have done irreparable damage to many local authorities' alien abduction investigation departments, and I see no evidence of Starmer and Reeves prioritising restoring this.
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Post by jib on Aug 23, 2023 19:19:59 GMT
shevii , I fear that Tory * budget cuts since 2010 have done irreparable damage to many local authorities' alien abduction investigation departments, and I see no evidence of Starmer and Reeves prioritising this restoring this. No need to gloss over the role of the Lib Dems in those cuts. #youtoo |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2023 19:21:35 GMT
I hope nobody is going to post about Battyโs team being FOUR NIL UP against a Scottish footy team. Still some time to go plus a trip to Villa to come for Hibs so they could pull it back I suppose. ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ FIVE NILโฆ.. Time to dust the old passport off, I think. Villa on European Tour again. Just like the good old days. We'll be running round the Bull Ring with the Cup, we'll be running round the Bull Ring with the Cup. (Pissed up). UTV I donโt think anyone from North of the border ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ posts here, so itโs quite okay for you to celebrate Battso. |
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Post by jen on Aug 23, 2023 19:22:17 GMT
Rather than focusing on the junior partner in the government elected four general elections and five prime ministers ago maybe our resident brexitanians could just apologise for the damage they've inflicted on us all by their actions. youtu.be/Galf9ybWB1cYou really do have a problem with free choice and democracy don't you! Very happy with my advisory voting decision. Zero chance of ever apologising to the likes of you sonny. Clearly need to get back your Remain forum and carry on plotting.  ![]() It is you that has a problem with democracy sonny Jim. My children and I, all UK citizens and taxpayers, and MILLIONS like us, were all denied a vote. Any claim that the referendum was "democratic" is clearly an out and out lie. And you repeat the lie again and again, just like the lies you told during the campaign - Mr. European Superstate hahahahahaha! Consider this: YOUR LIES HARMED MY CHILDREN. I also know a number of people working in Science, the Arts, and the fishing industry who would enjoy a "Frank Exchange of Views" with the likes of you. I get that you don't have the decency to apologise, but I would advise you to wind it in a bit. The demographic change is already happening... not long now... Good Bye |
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Post by jen on Aug 23, 2023 19:26:53 GMT
I thought this was an interesting article about the development of centre-right politics in Europe and how mainstream conservatism is now increasingly looking to embrace far Right ideas, and in some cases parties too, in order to survive and prosper electorally. This is particularly evident, and worrying too, in major democracies like France, Germany and Spain, but the development can be seen in most European democracies where conservatism has struggled not just electorally but intellectually too. In many cases they've looked to the Far Right for ideas in order to revitalise themselves. The political challenge for mainstream centre right parties has been squaring a political circle. The current "polycrisis", as some commentators now call it, owes many of its origins to the very economic model the centre right has espoused and championed for forty years. This is the intellectual and economic square they struggle to circle, so look instead to the Far Right for explanations that often swerve the need to accept the inconvenient and uncomfortable realities of how we got to where we are today. Extraordinarily, and the author gives examples, some centre right parties in Europe are now absorbing "Great Replacement" and overtly racist theories to explain the polycrisis. This is gaining some traction for them too and even squeezing them into government in some cases. Actual alliances with Far Right parties are no longer absolutely off limits in this quest for political survival. Maybe the big question in British politics now is how far its mainstream centre right party will travel on this journey? How far has it travelled already in a rather understated and covert British way? www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/23/europe-centre-right-out-of-ideas-absorbing-far-right-not-the-answerExcellent post. |
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Post by jib on Aug 23, 2023 19:33:51 GMT
I also know a number of people working in Science, the Arts, and the fishing industry who would enjoy a "Frank Exchange of Views" with the likes of you. They sound charming. Just not my type. Sorry. No apology due for exercising my democratic right. See ya! |
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Post by James E on Aug 23, 2023 19:42:58 GMT
Survation for Scotland SNP 37%. 24MPs Lab 35%. 24MPs Con 17%. 6MPs LD. 6%. 5MPs Oth. 5% Highest Labour vote by Survation for Labour This is a poll with a sample of 1,022, not an MRP. Seat figures are as estimated by John Curtice*. Curtice is also quoted as saying that every seat in Scotland is a maginal. Perhaps overstating it a bit, but it does seem likely that there will be a lot of very close contests - maybe even more than in 2017. I would be surprised by the Tories keeping six, given that they are shown as retaining a significantly lower share of their 2019 vote-share (68%) than the SNP. (82%). *It looks to me like those seats figures are simple UNS, as this produces 24 for the SNP. It would also explain Con 6 seats, as both they and SNP are down 8 points, while LDs gain, as they are only down by 3**. The effects on the SNP-held seats are very strange, as they would keep their 2nd-most marginal (Gordon) of their current 48 seats, while losing their Labour-facing seats all the way down to No 39, Paisley and Renfrewshire North. **UNS would still show the LDs retaining their 4 seats against the SNP or Tories, even if they too were down by 8 points to 1.5% |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 23, 2023 19:51:36 GMT
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Post by jen on Aug 23, 2023 20:03:32 GMT
I also know a number of people working in Science, the Arts, and the fishing industry who would enjoy a "Frank Exchange of Views" with the likes of you. They sound charming. Just not my type. Sorry. No apology due for exercising my democratic right. See ya! So you insist that broadcasting out and out lies during an election campaign is a democratic right?? Fascinating. I'm quite sure that there are others on this forum that agree with you. Your belief system is a dead man walking. (Nobody objects to your vote, it is your LIES that would merit an apology.) |
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Post by jib on Aug 23, 2023 20:08:07 GMT
They sound charming. Just not my type. Sorry. No apology due for exercising my democratic right. See ya! So you insist that broadcasting out and out lies during an election campaign is a democratic right?? Fascinating. I'm quite sure that there are others on this forum that agree with you. Your belief system is a dead man walking. I don't really have the means to broadcast beyond this forum and going down the pub. Maybe you should take your concerns up with the BBC and ITV, channel 4 etc given it is they who broadcast the majority of live material? Maybe a complaint to the Daily Mail, Telegraph or even the Guardian for not being impartial? (Nobody objects to your vote, it is your LIES that would merit an apology.) When have I lied? I just wanted an end to ever closer Union and the CAP / CFP. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 23, 2023 20:25:14 GMT
(another unconfirmed view is that when postal/actual polling cards arrive at halls of residence mail drops then someone 'collects' them all, or at least the ones not being used, and makes sure they don't go to waste - unconfirmed of course) There are two very obvious flaws to this. Firestly, you don't need your voting card to actually vote. Secondly...and this is the biggie...if someone were to use a fellow students voting card to vote twice, they would have to show up a second time at the same polling station Given that this is a criminal offence - and given that there are usually only about three workers giving out the ballot sheets, how many of those who would even want to do this would take the risk? I don't know the answer to your question. The best approach IMO would be to have mandatory, biometric, national ID cards - as that would deal with loads of issues, notably the foreseeable risk that if we did stop the taxi+hotel service for illegal immigration then it would very likely continue without the taxi+hotels service that taxpayers currently fund. ID cards would also deal with the 'unconfirmed view' which will be harder for anyone to pull off in future GEs due to ID checks but is considered to 'discriminate' against younger voters due to the forms of ID used. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 23, 2023 20:32:38 GMT
shevii , I fear that Tory * budget cuts since 2010 have done irreparable damage to many local authorities' alien abduction investigation departments, and I see no evidence of Starmer and Reeves prioritising this restoring this. No need to gloss over the role of the Lib Dems in those cuts. #youtooIt's aliens using Earth as a 'safe' 3rd country to deport their illegal immigrants that we need to be worried about! Lee Anderson needs to get on it and ensure they F* off back to their own planet.  |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 23, 2023 20:41:51 GMT
So you insist that broadcasting out and out lies during an election campaign is a democratic right?? Fascinating. I'm quite sure that there are others on this forum that agree with you. Your belief system is a dead man walking. I don't really have the means to broadcast beyond this forum and going down the pub. Maybe you should take your concerns up with the BBC and ITV, channel 4 etc given it is they who broadcast the majority of live material? Maybe a complaint to the Daily Mail, Telegraph or even the Guardian for not being impartial? (Nobody objects to your vote, it is your LIES that would merit an apology.) When have I lied? I just wanted an end to ever closer Union and the CAP / CFP. Maybe some people think JIB = Jones in Boris? Boris does look like he's eaten someone and does like porkie pies - perhaps you've been hiding inside him for years?  IIRC Project Fear told a few whoppers back in the day as well. Of course instead of 'Carry on Moaning' about the democratic vote where 17,410,742 people voted Leave and the 'Final Say' GE where CON won 365 of 650 seats to 'Get Brexit Done' then the Rejoiners could maybe get the campaign for Rejoin going rather than trying to get people who are quite happy that Brexit is done to lie (ie to say what we don't think was a mistake, was a mistake?!?) Very few folks on UKPR2 who Voted.Leave (n=3?) but none of us think it was a mistake - no matter how many times we're asked. WRT to LIES then didn't Starmer say he'd sign UK back up to 'Freedom of Movement'? Pledge #6 |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 23, 2023 20:54:19 GMT
jib - solidarity with the new avatar ๐ I quite like my current one and Brexit is ssssooo last decade but if the BABies are still crying then why don't they take it up with Starmer or Davey. If they tell them to F*ck off then Gina Miller will gladly take their votes in GE'24 as even Count Binface has moved on. 
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Post by jib on Aug 23, 2023 20:59:33 GMT
jib - solidarity with the new avatar ๐ I quite like my current one and Brexit is ssssooo last decade but if the BABies are still crying then why don't they take it up with Starmer or Davey. If they tell them to F*ck off then Gina Miller will gladly take their votes in GE'24 as even Count Binface has moved on. View Attachment Personally I think it's a lack of firm parenting. No means no! |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 23, 2023 21:00:55 GMT
Looks like Momentum types might decide to target another Tory conference this year. The one in Liverpool.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 23, 2023 21:03:25 GMT
The Jibster and Trevor double act firing off on all cylinders.
A joyous time to be alive on UKPR.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 23, 2023 21:09:22 GMT
Trevor
One person , one vote, one time, that's it you've had your chance now off you trot, want another vote, changed your mind , what do you think this is a democracy?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 23, 2023 21:16:54 GMT
Survation for Scotland SNP 37%. 24MPs Lab 35%. 24MPs Con 17%. 6MPs LD. 6%. 5MPs Oth. 5% Highest Labour vote by Survation for Labour This is a poll with a sample of 1,022, not an MRP. Seat figures are as estimated by John Curtice*. Curtice is also quoted as saying that every seat in Scotland is a maginal. Perhaps overstating it a bit, but it does seem likely that there will be a lot of very close contests - maybe even more than in 2017. I would be surprised by the Tories keeping six, given that they are shown as retaining a significantly lower share of their 2019 vote-share (68%) than the SNP. (82%). *It looks to me like those seats figures are simple UNS, as this produces 24 for the SNP. It would also explain Con 6 seats, as both they and SNP are down 8 points, while LDs gain, as they are only down by 3. The effects on the SNP-held seats are very strange, as they would keep their 2nd-most marginal (Gordon) of their current 48 seats, while losing their Labour-facing seats all the way down to No 39, Paisley and Renfrewshire North.
The polling for Holyrood (not until 2026) is naturally less valuable. A seat projection site suggests SNP + SGP = 55 : Lab + LD = 54 : Con (+REFUK?) 20 - resulting, inevitably, in a Lab controlled ScotGov operating with Con acquiescence. If today is Lab's high water mark, then that suggests a rather unstable ScotGov. If Starmer's UKGov is considered successful 2024-6 then 2026 might improve Lab's prospects - if its choices are less positively considered, then the prospects seem likely to alter.
On the most critical issue for Scotland, this poll has Yes 43% No 47% Unsure 10%. The performance of Starmer's government as it affects Scotland will be critical as to how those %s change. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 23, 2023 21:25:01 GMT
jib - solidarity with the new avatar ๐ I quite like my current one and Brexit is ssssooo last decade but if the BABies are still crying then why don't they take it up with Starmer or Davey. If they tell them to F*ck off then Gina Miller will gladly take their votes in GE'24 as even Count Binface has moved on. View Attachment Personally I think it's a lack of firm parenting. No means no! Once in generation wasn't it? Or was that another Remain lie? Anyway, instead of 'Carry of Moaning' then Rejoiners could get off their arses/keyboards and campaign to Rejoin. Most recent polling shows 90*-96%ish of folks intend to vote for a Party that wants to stay out. The parenting one is a possible explanation for some. Perhaps like Veruca Salt they think if they scream and scream and scream they'll get their way? Thankfully that is that not how the real World or politics work. If you sit on your arse/keyboard and moan then you achieve nothing. media.giphy.com/media/LkXsWtqzxade8/giphy.gif* Not totally sure about Green Party of E&W. They write massive essays for every policy and I don't have time to read them all. |
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Post by jib on Aug 23, 2023 21:32:20 GMT
Once in generation wasn't it? Or was that another Remain lie? Maybe he envisaged this was going to be a more frequent occurrence after the 40 year wait for the first?  |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 23, 2023 21:49:28 GMT
@fecklessmiser
Well that worked didn't it!
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Post by eor on Aug 23, 2023 21:50:37 GMT
That particular gripe always makes me smile - getting students to vote once is hard enough! Warwick University's campus is so large (and so concentrated in one Coventry ward) it could pretty much have had its own councillors for decades but despite varying levels of effort I've seen by the Students' Union over the years, they just can't get the students to register and vote, and as a result the campus has a permanently Tory representation on the City council, chosen by the balance of the suburbs around it. I doubt students are that bothered who gets to decide on the contract for bin collections but they are more interested in who gets elected to make national and meaningful decisions that effect their future lives. True for some, yes - for others, whilst the contract for the bin collections might be of no issue, the setting of the licensing hours and conditions next term would be a rather higher concern than more nebulous issues in their distant futures (not to mention that council services would also be for many the first defence against poor or negligent behaviour from landlords in their much more immediate future!) |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2023 21:55:10 GMT
I'm so glad this is a site predominantly about contemporary polling data with regular dollops of various whimsical stuff thrown in rather than an outlet for all manner of bizarre rantings, especially about some issues that are no longer front and centre in many people's eyes.
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Post by James E on Aug 23, 2023 22:06:34 GMT
oldnat"I haven't seen the detail of Curtice's seat projections..." Neither have I, but the seat figures match up exactly to a simple UNS, and he is using the 2019 boundaries. So SNP and Con each down 8%, LD down 3%, Lab up 16%. So, for example, Glasgow Central becomes: Lab 49% (+16) SNP 41% (-8) LD 2% (-3) Con 1% (-8)
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Aug 23, 2023 22:08:20 GMT
I hope nobody is going to post about Battyโs team being FOUR NIL UP against a Scottish footy team. Still some time to go plus a trip to Villa to come for Hibs so they could pull it back I suppose.ย ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ FIVE NILโฆ.. Time to dust the old passport off, I think. Villa on European Tour again. Just like the good old days. We'll be running round the Bull Ring with the Cup, we'll be running round the Bull Ring with the Cup. (Pissed up). UTV ๐ Enjoy it Batty. Itโs a really fun competition and Iโm not just saying that as weโre the holders ๐ |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 23, 2023 22:10:29 GMT
@isa
To be fair people do have different priorities but perhaps at the very least focusing on those that currently have an impact rather than fifteen year old paper clippings might be appropriate.
Here's a bit of poll related stuff from election maps.
Election Maps UK
@electionmapsuk
ยท
9h
My Seat Model (New Boundaries):
LAB: 26 (+25)
SNP: 22 (-26)
CON: 6 (=)
LDM: 3 (+1)
Changes w/ GE2019.
Such a result combined with other ABT targeted voting would be highly likely to see the SNP as the fourth largest Westminster party.
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Aug 23, 2023 22:14:51 GMT
Trevor One person , one vote, one time, that's it you've had your chance now off you trot, want another vote, changed your mind , what do you think this is a democracy? Well let's see - there was the referendum in 2016 won by Leave with a record vote for anything ever in the UK. Then in 2017 the Tories won a GE having said they would implement the referendum result. May 2019 the EU elections were won by UKIP. In December 2019 the Tories won a GE on a platform of 'Get Brexit Done'. How many goes do you want? Best of 9, as Remain has already lost 4? Ok, opinion polls say that there is currently a majority who say it was a mistake, but an opinion poll isn't an election and they also say that it is not an important issue. There were many times while we were members of the EEC/EU when Leave had a majority in opinion polls. The main parties all ignored it, so UKIP rose. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2023 22:26:35 GMT
@isa To be fair people do have different priorities but perhaps at the very least focusing on those that currently have an impact rather than fifteen year old paper clippings might be appropriate. Here's a bit of poll related stuff from election maps. Election Maps UK @electionmapsuk ยท 9h My Seat Model (New Boundaries): LAB: 26 (+25) SNP: 22 (-26) CON: 6 (=) LDM: 3 (+1) Changes w/ GE2019. Such a result combined with other ABT targeted voting would be highly likely to see the SNP as the fourth largest Westminster party. Thanks for your reply steve. In light of your polling stuff, I note what others have mentioned earlier about CON retaining 6 seats in Scotland in the next Westminster election, but I think that would be a good result for them if it happened, given wider current polling. |
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