Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 19, 2023 21:35:04 GMT
That is far from clear because the LDs had come out in favour of a Referendum as early as 2008. Indeed. But we should have learnt by now that promises mean little to our Lib Dem friends.  Also, didn't LDEM propose in GE'19 manifesto that we simply revoke the EURef decision rather than hold a 2nd 'Final Say' ref - or have people forgotten that? Of course we had GE'17 (when Corbyn said Brexit was settled) and then GE'19 (where Boris had an 'over ready' deal to 'Get Brexit Done') which was the 'Final Say' opportunity. I make that 3-0 (with two sets of extra time). Boris led a minority govt into GE'19. LDEM, SNP and xCONs could have put Corbyn in #10 with the sole mandate of holding EURef2 as the 'Final Say' but oh no, they preferred a GE to be the Final Say How many times do we have to go through all this?!? Next you know someone will 'forget' that: all main parties said they'd honour the result of EURef'16; that Gina Miller won a court case that stated 'parliament is sovereign' (and HoC then voted to give May the authority to trigger A50); all the votes in HoC between 2017-19 where Remainer MPs voted with ERG (or at least couldn't agree on anything but playing for 'extra time' hoping to overturn democracy); that Starmer whipped LAB MPs to 'Get Boris's 'oven ready' Brexit Done'; etc. For the small number of people who still care about Brexit and want to 'Carry on Moaning' then there is an Issue Specific thread, but if anyone needs reminding of the facts then we can go over them all yet again on the main thread. Also, as always, if any party wants to hold a new ref ('Rejoin' v 'Stay Out') then put that in a GE manifesto and if that party wins the democratic mandate to hold another ref then fine, we can hold another ref. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2023 21:40:17 GMT
crossbat11 Yes of course you're right about the relatively recent rise of AVWFC but having a history going back 50 years (albeit Solihull originally) is still impressive. It makes you wonder about the strength in depth of the English women's game if they're playing a centre forward at left back in a World Cup Final! If she was top scorer why isn't she playing centre forward? Better ask Sarina Wiegmen. Seems to be working so far though. There’s only one of her Batty. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 19, 2023 21:43:01 GMT
I'm not so sure. With an unpopular government and a public less than enthused by Labour it could be that there will be a rise in protest votes. They won't get more than the odd seat, but could affect the result in a few places. If you're right, it's the Reform VI that's more likely to collapse than Green (IMO) and I would expect more of that to go to Tories than to Labour (if they bother to vote at all). I expect a Green vote of circa 3% in a GE. The national vote for smaller parties is linked to how many candidates they run. For example if the Greens run candidates only where they are strong they could end up with a fairly high average vote per candidate but a low share of the national vote, whereas if they fielded candidates in 600+ constituencies, this could equate to 5-7% of the national vote, without adding much to their chances. What assumption on candidate numbers is your 3% based on? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 19, 2023 21:45:51 GMT
Better ask Sarina Wiegmen. Seems to be working so far though. There’s only one of her Batty. [b Daly or Wiegman? Two Dalys and Mercian would be happy. One at left back and the other at centre forward. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 19, 2023 21:53:50 GMT
crossbat11 Yes of course you're right about the relatively recent rise of AVWFC but having a history going back 50 years (albeit Solihull originally) is still impressive. It makes you wonder about the strength in depth of the English women's game if they're playing a centre forward at left back in a World Cup Final! If she was top scorer why isn't she playing centre forward? Gareth Bale started his career as a left-back, became a winger and finished up as an attacking midfield goalscorer/play-maker. Not sure that said much about strength in depth of the men's game and more that if you are a very good player you could probably make a fair go of any outfield position. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2023 21:59:07 GMT
crossbat11“ Better ask Sarina Wiegmen.” WiegmEn  ? Shameful spalling by you Battso.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 19, 2023 22:00:39 GMT
I expect a Green vote of circa 3% in a GE. The national vote for smaller parties is linked to how many candidates they run. For example if the Greens run candidates only where they are strong they could end up with a fairly high average vote per candidate but a low share of the national vote, whereas if they fielded candidates in 600+ constituencies, this could equate to 5-7% of the national vote, without adding much to their chances. What assumption on candidate numbers is your 3% based on? The next election is, I think, starting to feel like a classic "kick the scoundrels out" one where ganging up on the incumbents becomes the primary voting determinant. Wouldn't we expect the smaller parties to be squeezed in an election like that? High vote shares for parties like the Greens, UKIP etc tend to occur in elections where the incumbents are on course to be re-elected. In an essentially two-party system with a FPTP electoral system, if the mood afoot is to kick the incumbents out, then small party indulgence and voting fripperies tend to melt away. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 19, 2023 22:08:08 GMT
crossbat11 Yes of course you're right about the relatively recent rise of AVWFC but having a history going back 50 years (albeit Solihull originally) is still impressive. It makes you wonder about the strength in depth of the English women's game if they're playing a centre forward at left back in a World Cup Final! If she was top scorer why isn't she playing centre forward? Gareth Bale started his career as a left-back, became a winger and finished up as an attacking midfield goalscorer/play-maker. Not sure that said much about strength in depth of the men's game and more that if you are a very good player you could probably make a fair go of any outfield position. Very true. Many examples too. Bale is a classic one, but Kenny Burns at Birmingham in the 70s was a top class centre-half who could be a very good striker too. Kenny Swain at the Villa in the 80s. Inside forward turned right back. The latest could be John Stones. Centre half mutating into quality midfield player. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 19, 2023 22:08:30 GMT
Mr PoppyThe League of Empire Loyalists lasted from 1954-1967. If we assume that the League of EU Loyalists started in 2016, they should have run out of steam by 2029, just in time for the next-but-one GE
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Post by mercian on Aug 19, 2023 22:15:29 GMT
crossbat11 Yes of course you're right about the relatively recent rise of AVWFC but having a history going back 50 years (albeit Solihull originally) is still impressive. It makes you wonder about the strength in depth of the English women's game if they're playing a centre forward at left back in a World Cup Final! If she was top scorer why isn't she playing centre forward? Gareth Bale started his career as a left-back, became a winger and finished up as an attacking midfield goalscorer/play-maker. Not sure that said much about strength in depth of the men's game and more that if you are a very good player you could probably make a fair go of any outfield position. Yes but apparently this young lady is currently the WSL's top scorer. As far as I can understand Batty's cryptic notes she seems to be playing out of position. It's not that she's changed her club position. It's probably a stitch-up by the Londoners or Northerners to get their own girl in. 😁 |
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Post by mercian on Aug 19, 2023 22:19:25 GMT
The national vote for smaller parties is linked to how many candidates they run. For example if the Greens run candidates only where they are strong they could end up with a fairly high average vote per candidate but a low share of the national vote, whereas if they fielded candidates in 600+ constituencies, this could equate to 5-7% of the national vote, without adding much to their chances. What assumption on candidate numbers is your 3% based on? The next election is, I think, starting to feel like a classic "kick the scoundrels out" one where ganging up on the incumbents becomes the primary voting determinant. Wouldn't we expect the smaller parties to be squeezed in an election like that? High vote shares for parties like the Greens, UKIP etc tend to occur in elections where the incumbents are on course to be re-elected. In an essentially two-party system with a FPTP electoral system, if the mood afoot is to kick the incumbents out, then small party indulgence and voting fripperies tend to melt away. That might be true, but wouldn't the majority of Reform voters go Tory if they bother to vote, whereas I think Greens are less vulnerable because they will be serious contenders in a few seats and there is a zeitgeist that seems to be moving their way. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2023 22:23:42 GMT
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 19, 2023 22:29:57 GMT
Gareth Bale started his career as a left-back, became a winger and finished up as an attacking midfield goalscorer/play-maker. Not sure that said much about strength in depth of the men's game and more that if you are a very good player you could probably make a fair go of any outfield position. Yes but apparently this young lady is currently the WSL's top scorer. As far as I can understand Batty's cryptic notes she seems to be playing out of position. It's not that she's changed her club position. It's probably a stitch-up by the Londoners or Northerners to get their own girl in. 😁 I believe it was caused by a pre-tournament injury to the lady who would have played left-back, but it says something for the versatility of a player who can slot into a different role and still see her team reach the final. |
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domjg
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Posts: 5,123
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Post by domjg on Aug 19, 2023 22:30:00 GMT
Mr PoppyThe League of Empire Loyalists lasted from 1954-1967. If we assume that the League of EU Loyalists started in 2016, they should have run out of steam by 2029, just in time for the next-but-one GE Yeah because the situations are clearly the same and life's that simple eh? Or perhaps not.. There was no 'empire' to rejoin. The EU is the future and in a new bi-polar world is only going to be become even more relevant. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 19, 2023 22:33:23 GMT
Gareth Bale started his career as a left-back, became a winger and finished up as an attacking midfield goalscorer/play-maker. Not sure that said much about strength in depth of the men's game and more that if you are a very good player you could probably make a fair go of any outfield position. Very true. Many examples too. Bale is a classic one, but Kenny Burns at Birmingham in the 70s was a top class centre-half who could be a very good striker too. Kenny Swain at the Villa in the 80s. Inside forward turned right back. The latest could be John Stones. Centre half mutating into quality midfield player. Going back beyond my memory to another famous Welshman, it was said that John Charles was a world class centre forward and a world class centre back. I agree about Stones. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 19, 2023 22:50:30 GMT
Mr Poppy The League of Empire Loyalists lasted from 1954-1967. If we assume that the League of EU Loyalists started in 2016, they should have run out of steam by 2029, just in time for the next-but-one GE I hope you appreciate that the League of Empire Loyalists was an anti-Semitic group with strong links to fascism as well as the loopier end of the Conservative Party. It was founded by Arthur Chesterton, who was a leading member of the pre-war British Union of Fascists and ended up by merging into the National Front. Chesterton himself believed that "Bolshevism and American-style capitalism were actually in an alliance as part of a Jewish-led conspiracy against the British Empire". Comparing a group like that to people who would like to rejoin the EU is completely inappropriate and offensive, but no doubt will be described as 'banter'. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_Empire_Loyalists |
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Aug 20, 2023 0:12:55 GMT
Certainly without Cameron (and Clegg for allowing it all to go through) brexit would never have developed into a potential - and then an actual - referendum. Even then, when he was in sole charge, Cameron could have put in place safeguards such as a confirmatory referendum that gave options. The past five Tory PMs have all been awful but he began our descent into chaos. I don't remember Labour or any other party making a fuss about confirmatory referendums before the event - they were all convinced Remain would win and thought that admitting the possibility it might not would boost the Brexit vote - so I don't think it's fair to blame Cameron and Clegg. I think it’s fair and I think it’s naive/ blinkered to think otherwise for reasons that are self-evident. |
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Post by graham on Aug 20, 2023 0:14:11 GMT
I expect a Green vote of circa 3% in a GE. The national vote for smaller parties is linked to how many candidates they run. For example if the Greens run candidates only where they are strong they could end up with a fairly high average vote per candidate but a low share of the national vote, whereas if they fielded candidates in 600+ constituencies, this could equate to 5-7% of the national vote, without adding much to their chances. What assumption on candidate numbers is your 3% based on? I agree with the point re-candidate intervention the extent of which remains somewhat uncerttain. In 2015 Green party candidates effectively cost Labour 7 or 8 seats and made the difference between a minority Tory government just short of a majority and an overall majority of 12. Fewer seats were fought in 2017 to Labour's advantage. |
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Aug 20, 2023 0:20:41 GMT
@fecklessmiser I've nothing to offer in defence of Clegg, I was a Labour party member at the time. I think if the lib dems had still been in coalition with the Tories after 2015 as I suspect Cameron wanted the referendum would have been kicked into the very long grass and if held at all would have seen a change in the mandate for participation and possibly the majority required. But they weren't and the clustershambles of the 2016 referendum was entirely down to the Tories making and design. But I'm sure jib will be along to explain how it was really all Danny Alexander's fault. Absolutely, Cameron promised that referendum with no expectation that he’d have to deliver it. Had they not decided to ruthlessly target their enablers’ seats particularly in the SW then Cameron would have probably got his dream scenario where Clegg, Alexander, Dave and co could have allowed him to do his Tory thing, whilst pretending he’d wished he’d won it so he could have a referendum. He fucked up. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 20, 2023 0:24:20 GMT
Mr Poppy The League of Empire Loyalists lasted from 1954-1967. If we assume that the League of EU Loyalists started in 2016, they should have run out of steam by 2029, just in time for the next-but-one GE I hope you appreciate that the League of Empire Loyalists was an anti-Semitic group with strong links to fascism as well as the loopier end of the Conservative Party. It was founded by Arthur Chesterton, who was a leading member of the pre-war British Union of Fascists and ended up by merging into the National Front. Chesterton himself believed that "Bolshevism and American-style capitalism were actually in an alliance as part of a Jewish-led conspiracy against the British Empire". Comparing a group like that to people who would like to rejoin the EU is completely inappropriate and offensive, but no doubt will be described as 'banter'. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_Empire_LoyalistsOf course I knew all that. The similarity between the groups is that they both live(d) in a fantasy world hankering after a lost Golden Age. The name I've invented was intended to be a wryly humorous way of pointing that out. If it's struck a nerve perhaps it's because there is a grain of truth in it? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2023 4:32:08 GMT
This is an excerpt from Marina Hyde on what is laughingly called our “government “.
“ In Martin Amis’s novel The Information, there’s one character who always feels like he desperately wants a cigarette even while he is actually smoking a cigarette. The Tories seem obsessed to the exclusion of all else with the remote possibility they could form the next government, even when they are actually the current government. Guys, live a little! Maybe even govern a little?
Living in permanent campaign mode was one of the many diseases gifted to our politics by Boris Johnson, whose sole political philosophy was “I should be prime minister”. Once he became prime minister, he didn’t have a thought in his head as to what he wanted to do with the job, and anyway wasn’t any good at it. Yet Johnson’s sole political philosophy became “I should stay prime minister”. These days, his sole political philosophy is “i should be prime minister again.”
Well worth a free read in the Guardian.
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,613
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Post by steve on Aug 20, 2023 4:58:25 GMT
mercianThere's no comparison between a fascist organisations hankering over past imaginary nationalist glory and people who want to join a real organisation that benefits all its members that is fully functional and exists now at the borders of brexitania. There's not even a quark sized "truth" in your comparison
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 20, 2023 5:15:54 GMT
We've seen some delusional projection going on in our little chat group but here's an example of weapons grade delusional bollocks by the Traitor reported by MTN. youtu.be/2b6YIWmW0NU |
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steve
Member
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Post by steve on Aug 20, 2023 5:31:48 GMT
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,613
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Post by steve on Aug 20, 2023 5:51:47 GMT
Great video by Femi on holding brexitanians to account and achieving the achievable. youtu.be/8A_8HpDqQ_0 |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 20, 2023 6:50:05 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 20, 2023 6:54:32 GMT
I appreciated that supermarket shelves were empty because of Brexit but surely there's a better solution.  |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 20, 2023 7:09:44 GMT
I hope you appreciate that the League of Empire Loyalists was an anti-Semitic group with strong links to fascism as well as the loopier end of the Conservative Party. It was founded by Arthur Chesterton, who was a leading member of the pre-war British Union of Fascists and ended up by merging into the National Front. Chesterton himself believed that "Bolshevism and American-style capitalism were actually in an alliance as part of a Jewish-led conspiracy against the British Empire". Comparing a group like that to people who would like to rejoin the EU is completely inappropriate and offensive, but no doubt will be described as 'banter'. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_Empire_LoyalistsOf course I knew all that. The similarity between the groups is that they both live(d) in a fantasy world hankering after a lost Golden Age. The name I've invented was intended to be a wryly humorous way of pointing that out. If it's struck a nerve perhaps it's because there is a grain of truth in it? In which case you are being offensive. The extreme right and the extreme left both hate the EU so it is fairly obviously a 'centrist' project, albeit a wide centre. There's no 'grain of truth' in comparing that to fascists. I happen to agree that joining the EU is not practical politics for some considerable time, although getting closer to it is, but when we eventually do so it won't be a return to the past because the EU itself will have moved on and we will join on significantly different terms and with reduced importance and leverage compared to what we had. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 20, 2023 7:14:48 GMT
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
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Post by domjg on Aug 20, 2023 7:33:34 GMT
I hope you appreciate that the League of Empire Loyalists was an anti-Semitic group with strong links to fascism as well as the loopier end of the Conservative Party. It was founded by Arthur Chesterton, who was a leading member of the pre-war British Union of Fascists and ended up by merging into the National Front. Chesterton himself believed that "Bolshevism and American-style capitalism were actually in an alliance as part of a Jewish-led conspiracy against the British Empire". Comparing a group like that to people who would like to rejoin the EU is completely inappropriate and offensive, but no doubt will be described as 'banter'. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_Empire_LoyalistsOf course I knew all that. The similarity between the groups is that they both live(d) in a fantasy world hankering after a lost Golden Age. The name I've invented was intended to be a wryly humorous way of pointing that out. If it's struck a nerve perhaps it's because there is a grain of truth in it? It struck the same nerve with me that complete and utter reality free bollocks always strikes. |
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