11-AUG 2023 : LAB: 48% / CON: 24% / LDM: 10% / GRN: 6%

[steve]

@mark

I try to remember to say who I'm linking to along with the link.

I sometimes forget, but it's only to reputable trusted people.
I appreciate that some might not be as picky.

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 18, 2023 10:12:10 GMT colin said:

Aug 18, 2023 9:44:47 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Ah but it's not the taking part, it's the winning that counts (which as covered earlier means appealing to older voters and hoping younger voters continue to vote ABCON) and nothing is sacred under Starmer's 'New' management:

Well well.

In my continuing search for the real Starmer, an article in today's Times announces :-

"Tony Blair is history for class-conscious Keir Starmer

Leader defies New Labour orthodoxy by emphasising socioeconomic divides and pitching overtly to working people"

A conclusion which doesn't sit too easily with the policy you have just highlighted.

This article says I must forget ideas of TBI influence because :-

"Starmer wrote in The Scotsman this week. “My political project is to return Labour to the service of working people and working-class communities. There may have been times in the recent past where Labour was afraid to speak the language of class at all — but not my Labour Party. No, for me, smashing the ‘class ceiling’ that holds working people back is our defining purpose. Because you cannot seriously take on inequality, or poverty, or the pernicious idea that circumstances — who you are, where you come from, who you know — can still count for more than enterprise or imagination, without talking about class.”"

 The writer explains :-

"None of this necessarily means he has ripped up Blair’s armistice and rediscovered Marx. But how striking it is to watch a Labour leader quite literally embrace Blair one week and talk like this the next. It turns on its head the logic of New Labour, whose playbook Starmer often appears to have learnt by rote, and reveals that his is a very different project, despite appearances so painstakingly cultivated to the contrary."

And the reason ? :-

"From their regular focus groups  Starmer’s aides have inferred that class allegiance is elastic. If an economy is in rude health their target voters feel empowered to identify as middle class. If it isn’t, the same voters identify as working class. It is to these people, Conservative voters in 2019, that Starmer, like Boris Johnson, has chosen very deliberately to speak. “Mondeo Man this is not,”"



So there we have it-Starmer can be all things to all men because his target voters are BOTH middle class AND working class-depending how they feel.

You can't say 'men' anymore and it was 'Stevenage Woman' the other week ('Middle Aged Mortgage Man' the week before) and most politicians 'adapt' their speeches depending on their audience (eg 'Woke-on-Thames' v 'Stoke-on-Trent') but Starmer takes it to a new level of cynicism. 

Thin line between seen as 'everything to everyone' and 'nothing to nobody' and into a GE the spotlight won't just be on how shit Rishi-CON have been but why should one get out of bed to vote FOR LAB when the policies are 'continuity CON' and the leader is a pathological liar. Boris got away with a lot of lies, until Partygate, but Boris (and Blair) had a bit of boosterism charisma about them. 

The 'class ceiling' guff from someone who had taxpayers pay for his education (and who clearly came from a reasonably well of family) is 

'Class warfare' feels like an attempt to keep LW-LAB on side but the problem with class elasticity is that if you pull too hard in opposite directions then it snaps (and both sides see you for what you are - a patronising charlatan). His background is a lawyer and they literally say anything to win one case so the 'real' Starmer doesn't exist IMO and the amount of 'pragmatism' he is showing as LOTO is not encouraging for how easily he'll blow with the wind as PM when he actually has to make decisions that effect us all. Too much ideology is problematic as well and at least Starmer is not Corbyn so we shouldn't grumble too much 

PS On 'wokeism' and people getting themselves into a lather then as you point out the 'great unwashed' aren't interested but that does question why CCHQ think that is a button they should keep trying to press - especially on stuff like immigration where they are failing and polling clearly shows people see that they are failing. Woke is a very vague word, bit like 'liberal' but I'd rather be 'awake' than 'a woke'. 

[Rafwan]

crossbat11

Hehe, well I liked your post because I was trying to script a reply to @isa ’s original excellent post, but couldn’t find the right words and suddenly there they were! I also like c-a-r-f-r-e-w ’s and wb61 ’s intriguing responses (though I haven’t actually ‘liked’ them (!)). I think colin and others may also have contributed, but I am afraid I rarely read their posts. No offence intended, but when I do, it only seems to cause trouble!

[steve]

Nice Take from Femi Oluwole from Our future Our Choice on the limits of compassion for Brexit voters, pretty much reflects my own opinion.

youtu.be/sm6fjQpPshk

[Mr Poppy]

colin Blair had 'two jabs' Prescott and to avoid some of the obvious hypocrisy from Starmer then he is deploying Rayner (of private healthcare fame) to 'take back the North':

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/angela-rayner-aims-labours-angel-30712454 

That being the same Rayner than Starmer tried to sack* and most 'politically aware' people know is referred to as Starmer's Rayner problem:

What does Keir do with Angela as reshuffle pressure grows?
www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/reshuffle-pressure-sir-keir-deputy-angela-rayner-minister-b1100496.html

* In the job sense, although we know he likes to kiss Tories and screw socialists

PS I'm not sure if LAB HQ got Rayner's battle bus campervan cheap from SNP HQ or paid full price? To save the Planet then the journey oop Narf was perhaps intended to be 'one-way' 

[Mr Poppy]

As mentioned previously then IF/when the trade unions work it out and stop funding LAB then plenty of business donors who can more than make up for the ££ that Starmer-CON needs to keep winning GEs. If you can't beat them.. become them 

[steve]

@fecklessmiser

My boxing days are long gone.

But have to admit I did quite enjoy it provided the opponents missed.

Maybe it's time to break out the old handbag for a dawn meet up.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

“Washington has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands, it has been reported.

The White House has given the two European nations official assurances that it will expedite approval of transfer requests for the F-16s as soon as Ukrainian pilots have completed training programmes for the aircraft, an unnamed US official told Reuters.

“The United States is in active discussions with our European partners about how we can support the efforts to provide Ukraine with F-16 pilot training as quickly as possible,” Politico quoted a State Department spokesperson as saying.

Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra welcomed Washington’s decision to “pave the way for sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine”.

“Now, we will further discuss the subject with our European partners,” he added.

Denmark, which is hosting the Ukrainian pilots for training and has said it hopes to see “results” from the programme in early 2024, also said providing Ukraine with the jets would now be discussed.”

Telegraph

[leftieliberal]

Aug 18, 2023 11:15:48 GMT Mr Poppy said:

As mentioned previously then IF/when the trade unions work it out and stop funding LAB then plenty of business donors who can more than make up for the ££ that Starmer-CON needs to keep winning GEs. If you can't beat them.. become them 

From The Guardian article on this: The changes, first reported by the Financial Times, are supported by a number of trade unions and their organising body, the TUC.

It's Unite who are objecting. Just because they are Labour's biggest donors, they think the Party should kowtow to them.

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 18, 2023 11:35:58 GMT leftieliberal said:

Aug 18, 2023 11:15:48 GMT Mr Poppy said:

As mentioned previously then IF/when the trade unions work it out and stop funding LAB then plenty of business donors who can more than make up for the ££ that Starmer-CON needs to keep winning GEs. If you can't beat them.. become them 

From The Guardian article on this: The changes, first reported by the Financial Times, are supported by a number of trade unions and their organising body, the TUC.

It's Unite who are objecting. Just because they are Labour's biggest donors, they think the Party should kowtow to them.

Good to see the Groan are still pushing the 'Centrist-LAB' (RW-LAB) view and great that a number of trade unions (not all of whom pay members money to LAB HQ) support Tory policies. 

Sharon Graham (Unite) has had her bluff called but all means ask her why Unite members are still paying LAB HQ when Starmer is laughing at her while still pocketing Unite members' cash. 

Labour facing bankruptcy as biggest union donor Unite says it could pull remaining support
Sir Keir says Labour will not be ‘influenced by threats’

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-unite-union-donations-starmer-sharon-graham-b2011988.html

As per Thatcher beating the Miner's Union then Starmer has planned ahead for the lose of Unite's ££ and if Graham is really helpful then she'll make the announcement of Unite no longer paying LAB HQ close to GE'24 - that will help Starmer look more like the CON man that CON'19 voters want to see and ensure more £££ from business (as I said) 

PS If Streeting can do something about the militant BMA when he gets into power then 'ta muchly'  

[Mr Poppy]

Count Binface is doing a Q&A and has some good policy ideas, such as:

PM in waiting? 

[Deleted]

Aug 18, 2023 10:33:09 GMT @isa said:

Aug 18, 2023 10:01:11 GMT colin said:

Quite interested in the continuing evocation of the DM reader as regressive  angry old Tory voter-and indeed your projection from personal anecdote of  up to 20m such people.

So had a look at some stats.

DM print circulation is around 800k ( higher on Sats)-said to equate to around 2.5m readers.
Demographic is  54% female to 46% male. 83%  homeowners and 69% own their homes outright.Some 63% are ABC1 (upper and middle class).Average age of a reader is 56.

Mailonline has 4 million unique visits per day.( 37% in USA/35% in UK). Demograhic is 39% female to 61% male. 66% ABC1. 27% 25-34 years old; 18% 35-44 years old; 17% 18-24 years old; 15% 45-54 years old; 13% 55-64 years old ; 10% over 65 years old.
Mailonline users' "top topics" are News & Shopping.Other websites visited are :guardian.com/wikipedia.org/
bbc.com /mirror.co.uk /thesun.co.uk .Highest Social Media distribution is Facebook (30%) and Twitter ( 24%)

( sources a variety of media data sites)

So it looks like your " less than 30% of the population" is certainly correct-by some margin.

Not sure about them being old-certainly not the online users.

With regard to "wokeism" a 2022 YouGov Poll indicated that 43% of the population had heard this term being used, but were not sure or had no idea what it means , or had never heard it being used. Of those who understood what it means ( 57%), when asked "Do you ever use the term 'woke' to describe a set of beliefs, or people with a set of beliefs? "only 29% said Yes (17% of the population) 

Of those who understood what "woke" means, 24% thought it was " a good thing" and 41% " a bad thing"

So it certainly looks like a small proportion of the population are in a " right old lather " about woke issues.:-
From the above maybe 41% X 17% =7% ?

Sorry for getting you into a right old lather in terms of needing to debunk my caveated anecdotal musings. I hope you feel better now.

Very unlikely.

[neilj]

This is a different poll, looks at VI if Corbyn was leader

Westminster Voting Intention (Corbyn as Labour Leader):

LAB: 36% (-10)
CON: 35% (+7)
LDM: 15% (+4)
RFM: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@moreincommon_
, Aug 2023.
Changes w/ Regular VI

[jib]

Aug 18, 2023 12:12:43 GMT neilj said:

This is a different poll, looks at VI if Corbyn was leader

Westminster Voting Intention (Corbyn as Labour Leader):

LAB: 36% (-10)
CON: 35% (+7)
LDM: 15% (+4)
RFM: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@moreincommon_
, Aug 2023.
Changes w/ Regular VI

I can well believe that.

Particularly when the crazy entourage of McDonnell, RLB, Chakrabati, Abbott and McCluskey were in tow as well.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Aug 13, 2023 18:53:30 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Aug 13, 2023 14:24:35 GMT colin said:

This morning's report from the Sky News military guy was -progress but not significant yet.

Also the Russians are taking territory in the north. Ukraine evacuated 12k people.:-


www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/10/ukraine-orders-civilian-evacuation-of-kharkiv-areas-as-russians-advance

Yes, possibly an attempt to divert Ukrainian resources away from the main thrust, it is argued. And evacuating allows the Ukrainians to use more artillery, which is something they seem to be increasingly doing in towns and villages. The Russians themselves are reputed to allow advances then counter attack, and it’s possible Ukraine might do that too? 

Thought I would add some more on this, on how attack and counter attack seem to be evolving, along with dealing with the mine and helicopter difficulties, from bits and pieces have picked up.

As you note, attacks by the enemy had been a problem for the Ukrainians in the North, but it seems like they have been developing a response, to some extent mimicking the tactics they had been exposed to. Counter-attacks have been a problem too, but they have a new tactic for those as well. 

What had been happening, was that Ukraine forces would try to advance, but their opposition would make a tactical retreat inviting the Ukrainians forward, whereupon they would be subjected to a load of artillery fire, before then being driven back by a counter-attack.

But they changed their tactics. They would advance, but only a bit, occupying the vacated trenches and waiting out the artillery barrage, then subjecting the subsequent counter-attack to a barrage of their own.

As the enemy retreat, they are then taken out by cluster bombs. Meanwhile in places where the Ukrainian defences are attacked, e.g. in the north, the Ukrainians themselves do tactical retreats, then open up with artillery as the enemy advance.

There seem to have been some new tech developments too. One aspect, is that they are using the ability of the Leopards to provide fire support from much further back, so it’s harder to spot and take them out.

In response, the attack helicopters are being used more to try and take out the Leopards, but the Ukrainians have a new man-portable air defence that has a longer range, and is laser-sighted so isn’t affected by chaff dropped by the helicopters, unlike the infra-red systems. 

In another piece of news, it seems they have a new way to detect mines using thermal imaging, that reveals their locations, thus making it easier to find them for removal or to avoid them or find paths that are less extensively mined.

 

 

[leftieliberal]

Aug 18, 2023 12:12:43 GMT neilj said:

This is a different poll, looks at VI if Corbyn was leader

Westminster Voting Intention (Corbyn as Labour Leader):

LAB: 36% (-10)
CON: 35% (+7)
LDM: 15% (+4)
RFM: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@moreincommon_
, Aug 2023.
Changes w/ Regular VI

Should silence all those who say that Labour would be 30 points ahead with a different leader, but it does illustrate just how unpopular the Tories are under Sunak.

[steve]

neilj
I'm sure we have some from the Corbyn fan club who would think an electoral failure is a price worth paying ,mind you the extra votes presumably mostly from one nation pro European union Tories coming my parties way would come in useful.

[steve]

leftieliberal
It's entirely possible that Labour could be further ahead with a different leader , unfortunately for the true believers what would achieve this would be Starmer like not Corbynite , better on policy and with a bit of charisma.
Come back Sir Tony!

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 18, 2023 12:18:46 GMT jib said:

Aug 18, 2023 12:12:43 GMT neilj said:

This is a different poll, looks at VI if Corbyn was leader

Westminster Voting Intention (Corbyn as Labour Leader):

LAB: 36% (-10)
CON: 35% (+7)
LDM: 15% (+4)
RFM: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@moreincommon_
, Aug 2023.
Changes w/ Regular VI

I can well believe that.

Particularly when the crazy entourage of McDonnell, RLB, Chakrabati, Abbott and McCluskey were in tow as well.

and the coordinated 'demonising' of Corbyn from Tory Plan A, B and main stream media that started after Corbyn got close to power in GE'17

I'm very glad Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbot never got into power and LAB elected a Red Tory as leader. Good to see the demonising of Corbyn and the LW-LAB is working so well as that will ensure the LW-LAB never get a chance to take back control of Tory Plan B and offer voters a 'progressive-socialist' option (although the Greens might fill that space??)

It's the abandonment of 'green' pledges that is disappointing and some of Corbyn's policies were enacted by CON (Tory Plan A) anyway (eg corporation tax hiked to very close to what Corbyn-McDonnell planned to do). Corbyn-McDonnell did have some useful 'influence' back in their day. 

[Rafwan]

steve

'Course we do know from 2017 that during the campaign, given the right programme, the Labour VI can lift 15-20 points, so that would put us, ooo, somewhere in the mid-fifties? That, of course, is a ridiculous argument. But perhaps not the only one round here ...

[leftieliberal]

Aug 18, 2023 12:35:18 GMT steve said:

leftieliberal
It's entirely possible that Labour could be further ahead with a different leader , unfortunately for the true believers what would achieve this would be Starmer like not Corbynite , better on policy and with a bit of charisma.
Come back Sir Tony!

Missing smiley alert? I could not see Starmer leading the UK into the Iraq War at GWBush's side; unlike Blair he would have too much regard for the rule of law. We've all seen that charisma is a dangerous quality; safe and boring for me.

[graham]

Aug 18, 2023 12:35:18 GMT steve said:

leftieliberal
It's entirely possible that Labour could be further ahead with a different leader , unfortunately for the true believers what would achieve this would be Starmer like not Corbynite , better on policy and with a bit of charisma.
Come back Sir Tony!

Doubtless in Germany there are those who yearn for the return of  another war criminal - the Fuhrer!

[graham]

Aug 18, 2023 12:29:16 GMT leftieliberal said:

Aug 18, 2023 12:12:43 GMT neilj said:

This is a different poll, looks at VI if Corbyn was leader

Westminster Voting Intention (Corbyn as Labour Leader):

LAB: 36% (-10)
CON: 35% (+7)
LDM: 15% (+4)
RFM: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@moreincommon_
, Aug 2023.
Changes w/ Regular VI

Should silence all those who say that Labour would be 30 points ahead with a different leader, but it does illustrate just how unpopular the Tories are under Sunak.

I have no wish to see Corbyn return - indeed I never wanted him as leader - but hypothetical polls like this are almost meaningless. Were it to happen, Corbyn would probably fare pretty well against Sunak in an election campaign.

[Deleted]

Aug 18, 2023 10:33:09 GMT @isa said:

Aug 18, 2023 10:01:11 GMT colin said:

Sorry for getting you into a right old lather in terms of needing to debunk my caveated anecdotal musings. I hope you feel better now.

Not at all. I like numbers and research.

Its not compulsory to engage with the critical thoughts of others.


I leave you to your  ideas of millions of gender critical, Mail reading  misers with the social conscience of Genghis Khan.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

“Like many graduates, it was always my dream to move to London when I finally got an “adult job”. I fantasised about summers spent eating al fresco in the streets of Soho, heading off to sip cocktails in a rooftop bar, before hitting the clubs until the early hours. Sadly, my fantasy remains just that…

…

The reality of being fresh out of uni and working in the capital is far less glamorous.

Throughout the pandemic, I used to long for the day when I would be free to go out again. Shouldn’t we spend our 20s meeting new people and partying carefree into the night? Of course we should. But the reality for us was that when we were finally unshackled from Covid restrictions we were plunged straight into a cost of living crisis with soaring prices.

Now, no one expects to be rich when starting out in life. But still, older relatives frequently bang on about the big British youth culture of the 1990s when they were growing up, going out to house parties and pubs almost every night of the week, spending their evenings discovering new music and socialising in underground clubs.

Even counting for nostalgia’s rose-tinted view of the past, it feels like they were having a much better time than us. Because let me tell you, Generation Boring has none of that. A poll this week even confirmed that instead of blowing any spare cash on a night out, a full third of 20-somethings now stow it under the mattress instead; for a fifth, just keeping a roof overhead is a major concern.

I feel their pain. Since moving to London, saving money – for now a ludicrous ambition – has been the least of my worries.

True, after months of searching, my flatmates and I finally secured a three-bed flat in London, but the excitement was swiftly dulled when we had to cough up an eye-watering holding deposit, security deposit and first month’s rent – a sum that almost maxed out my overdraft. I was paid my monthly wage a few days later but it was immediately swallowed up by my debts.

“Work hard and play hard” no longer holds up. It’s more like “work hard and then work even harder”. One of my friends was forced to pick up a part-time job in a bar on top of her full-time graduate job, working a total of 60 hours per week to afford to pay her £850 rent and bills of up to £120 for a flat in Zone 2 London.

A survey by recruitment firm Reed found that workers now need a salary of £49,300 to afford to live comfortably. In London, this rockets to a minimum wage of £65,000 to abate the ever-increasing cost of living.

“Going out” isn’t reserved to just clubbing and drinking anymore. It seems that even stepping out of the confines of my flat costs money, whether it is extortionate public transport (I have resorted to walking wherever possible, only capping distances at an hour and a half) or simply going for a coffee.

Even treating myself to a nice meal in a restaurant, which at uni I’d thought I would be doing every night as a graduate in my mid-20s, has to be rationed.

When going out for food – only for special occasions of course – we tend to go halves on everything…”

Telegraph

[Deleted]

Aug 18, 2023 10:55:47 GMT Rafwan said:

I think colin and others may also have contributed, but I am afraid I rarely read their posts. 

Don't apologise.

I wouldn't expect you to !

[steve]

graham
Doubtless in Germany there are those who think they know better than their judicial system as well.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Aug 18, 2023 12:29:16 GMT leftieliberal said:

Aug 18, 2023 12:12:43 GMT neilj said:

This is a different poll, looks at VI if Corbyn was leader

Westminster Voting Intention (Corbyn as Labour Leader):

LAB: 36% (-10)
CON: 35% (+7)
LDM: 15% (+4)
RFM: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@moreincommon_
, Aug 2023.
Changes w/ Regular VI

Should silence all those who say that Labour would be 30 points ahead with a different leader, but it does illustrate just how unpopular the Tories are under Sunak.

Well it might be indicative to compare with someone left wing but with less baggage. (But maybe there aren’t so many with a lot of public awareness of them)

[graham]

Aug 18, 2023 13:32:32 GMT steve said:

graham
Doubtless in Germany there are those who think they know better than their judicial system as well.

Some of us rely on International lawyers - as well as having studied it ourselves.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Also in the Telegraph

If you’re under 50, it’s time to jump ship – get out of Britain while you can
The UK seems incapable of solving its own issues, and things are set to get worse

“If young British people knew what was good for them, they’d be on the next plane out of the country. Emigration is, after all, the time-honoured path to prosperity for those trapped in stagnating countries.

And the UK is not so much stagnating as it is fossilising. Fifteen years of anaemic growth mean that real wages are still below their 2008 peak – there are 30 year olds who have seen their entire working career go by without seeing meaningful growth in wages. The result is that countries we are used to thinking of as our peers are surging ahead.

Our GDP per capita, adjusted for actual purchasing power, is closer to Slovenia’s than it is to Denmark’s or Australia’s. American levels of prosperity are so far out of reach that we would need an economic Apollo mission to bridge the gap between us; the general manager of a Buc-ee’s petrol station in Texas is paid more than our Prime Minister.

With a tricky election looming, Rishi Sunak may come to regret giving up his US green card.


Economists think of migration as being driven by a combination of push and pull factors, things which drive you away from your home country and things which draw you to your destination. We’ve grown used to the stories of doctors trading soul-sapping shifts on NHS wards for higher pay and fewer hours in Australia, or finance professionals heading to Dubai.

The risk for Britain is that this trend now becomes widespread as a toxic combination of economic stagnation and surging growth elsewhere lure young people away.

Advertisement



It’s not as if the push factors are lacking. The housing market has passed beyond dysfunction and into catastrophe. Record numbers of adults still live with their parents, trapped by surging rents and unaffordable house prices. Those who do strike out can expect to spend well over 20 per cent of their incomes on housing costs, double the proportion that baby boomers spent when they were young. The average deposit on a family home would take that family around 19 years to save, compared to three years in the 1980s.

Young people wanting to start families are finding things previous generations took for granted to be effectively out of reach. It’s hard not to connect this dysfunction with the birth rate reaching record lows. Fertility intentions – the number of children women want to have – have been pretty much at replacement level in Britain even as the number of children they actually have has fallen.

To the extent that it is no longer possible for many to have the family lives they dream of in Britain, that’s a pretty convincing reason to leave...”

(Et Cetera, with more on the population demographic becoming more elderly and so on)