|
|
Post by mercian on Sept 30, 2023 20:14:06 GMT
That is an interesting take on my post, birdseye I was not calling for an end to democracy. I was more suggesting that politicians can sometimes convince voters of a position, even one that may not be popular initially. I do understand that the pull to win elections is obviously going to trump all else but it is to our detriment if things that benefit in the long term cannot be argued for because of a perceived electoral cost in the short term. Interesting post. 👍 Don't most governments do stuff that they know is unpopular but think is right, in the first year or two in power and then revert to trying to please people as an election looms? |
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Sept 30, 2023 20:16:37 GMT
The average traffic speed in 2022 on local urban A roads in England and Wales was 17mph. That's because those roads often have traffic lights at junctions. Being stationary for a minute at each set of lights will reduce the average speed. It doesn't mean that vehicles travel at that speed between junctions. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Sept 30, 2023 20:20:29 GMT
Opposition to 20mph limits in urban settings seems to me to be mostly saloon bar chuntering, from exactly the people you would expect that sort of stuff. I doubt you'll find mercian in the saloon bar I don't think I've seen a Saloon Bar for decades. Didn't they go the way of Smoke Rooms and Snugs? EDIT: Since you assume my view on the 20 mph limit thing, I'm with those who have been saying it's fine around schools, narrow roads and so on, but a blanket limit in urban areas is over the top. I know that in rush hours it's often nose-to-tail crawls, but as a retiree why should I have to drive at twenty during the day on relatively clear roads with no kids about? |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,549
|
Post by Danny on Sept 30, 2023 20:22:38 GMT
Interesting he predicts the need to increase the NHS workforce from 1.5 million to 2.5 million in 15 years, because of the aging population. Thats about 70,000 per year, or 5% per year. Which means a real terms budget increase of 5% per year above whatever the medical inflation rate is. I've read somewhere that the NHS is one of the biggest employers in the world. I wonder how big the workforce in this area is in roughly comparable countries such as France and Germany? I heard a conservative MP being interviewed today who is one of the refusniks who say they will not vote again for raising taxes. Which is very interesting, because the NHS and care are the biggest growing element of the Uk national budget. From wikipedia the UK deficit in 2018 was £32 billion. In 2021 it was £234 billion, 2021 £116bn. I dont know how much of that is caused by Brexit, how much by covid lockdown, and how much by other policies over the last 13 years, but either way its the responsibility of the government. 2021, deficit £116bn. Thats kinda unsutainable. At the same time conservatives have squeezed government spending to the point systems are starting to break down. Councils are going bust. Teachers are on strike. Railwaymen are on strike. HS2 catastrophically mismanaged. Doctors were reported by 'more or less' as having suffered the biggest wage cuts of any group in the Uk during this administration. However, the NHS is the biggest priority amongst voters now that brexit is no longer dominating public affairs. And to maintain service levels in the face of an aging population it will need a constantly expanding budget. Just as all other services are going to need more money to maintain service levels. Its disingenuous to say some system other than the state should provide care, because we all know if it did then it would cost more and that care would be divided according to personal wealth. This is becoming evident now in all the services privatised by the previous conservative administration under Thatcher.
And so the conservative dogma of cutting taxes is pitted against the need in a modern state for government to take an ever growing share of national revenue, because its the most effective way to deliver national services used by all. And actually, on a keynsian understanding of the economy it is likely to act as a stimulus if the state extracts money and recycles it back to citizens faster than they would do themselves. With the caveat that the money doesnt get exported to buy in chinese test kits, or whatever.
Starmer and co do not want to talk about raising taxes, but the nation has to choose either to raise taxes or reduce service levels. Either raise more money, or choose more people to be left to die untreated.
Which is a far cry from the midst of the covid epidemic when the government, lying, said money is no object when it comes to health. Money is always an object. Its crazy that in Sweden where doctors decided what best to do, they chose to keep the economy open. Whereas in countries where politicians decided, they chose to close the economy because it looked better for them, looked like they were taking decisive action. Most probably the balance was on the one hand that lockdown might or might not do any good. On the other that if it turned out it would have done good but they had not done it, their careers would be over. So they chose to spent a trillion as political insurance for themselves. Not fit to govern.
But who is now going to have the grown up discussion with voters about choices for government services? I dont see anyone stepping forward.
Or the grown up discussion about rejoining the EU one way or another, on whatever terms they will grant?
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,549
|
Post by Danny on Sept 30, 2023 20:26:38 GMT
So lets say 10%. isnt that going to result in 10% price increase in anything requiring transport? And those numbers are more like a 1/4.5 drop than the one faced here which is 1/3, so we would expect the effect to be somewhat bigger. Pro rata that looks more like a 10-20% journey time increase predicted on the basis of those numbers. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,549
|
Post by Danny on Sept 30, 2023 20:29:12 GMT
The average traffic speed in 2022 on local urban A roads in England and Wales was 17mph. That's because those roads often have traffic lights at junctions. Being stationary for a minute at each set of lights will reduce the average speed. It doesn't mean that vehicles travel at that speed between junctions. So, for example, a notional drop in speeds from 30 to 20 mph might become real average speed changes from 20 to 15 mph? |
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Sept 30, 2023 20:31:08 GMT
Opinium @opiniumresearch · 20m 🚨Latest Opinium @observeruk poll: Labour lead down by 5 points to 10%. • Labour: 39% (-2) • Conservative: 29% (+3) • Liberal Democrat: 12% (+1) • SNP: 3% (nc) • Plaid Cymru: 1% (nc) • Green: 7% (nc) • Reform UK: 7% (-1) • Other: 2% (nc) Opinium have consistently shown lower Labour leads than other pollsters. Over the last three months their average lead is 14.3%, Savanta Comres 17.1%, Redfield & Wilton 17.4%, YouGov 20.0%, Techne 20.1%, Deltapoll 20.5% and WeThink (a.k.a. Omnisis) 20.8% So you could say that all Opinium polls are outliers |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,614
|
Post by pjw1961 on Sept 30, 2023 22:03:56 GMT
Opinium @opiniumresearch · 20m 🚨Latest Opinium @observeruk poll: Labour lead down by 5 points to 10%. • Labour: 39% (-2) • Conservative: 29% (+3) • Liberal Democrat: 12% (+1) • SNP: 3% (nc) • Plaid Cymru: 1% (nc) • Green: 7% (nc) • Reform UK: 7% (-1) • Other: 2% (nc) Opinium have consistently shown lower Labour leads than other pollsters. Over the last three months their average lead is 14.3%, Savanta Comres 17.1%, Redfield & Wilton 17.4%, YouGov 20.0%, Techne 20.1%, Deltapoll 20.5% and WeThink (a.k.a. Omnisis) 20.8% So you could say that all Opinium polls are outliers Surely that is inevitable given their methodology for redistributing 'don't knows' on the basis of prior voting. I suspect their raw data would be similar to the others. That is why I omit Opinium from my monthly polling average as they method is not appropriate for what I am seeking to do. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2023 22:37:45 GMT
Opinium have consistently shown lower Labour leads than other pollsters. Over the last three months their average lead is 14.3%, Savanta Comres 17.1%, Redfield & Wilton 17.4%, YouGov 20.0%, Techne 20.1%, Deltapoll 20.5% and WeThink (a.k.a. Omnisis) 20.8% So you could say that all Opinium polls are outliers Surely that is inevitable given their methodology for redistributing 'don't knows' on the basis of prior voting. I suspect their raw data would be similar to the others. That is why I omit Opinium from my monthly polling average as they method is not appropriate for what I am seeking to do. All the same, that is the first time I've seen LAB polling less than 40% for yonks. Hopefully that will concentrate minds where it needs to. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Sept 30, 2023 22:45:53 GMT
Surely that is inevitable given their methodology for redistributing 'don't knows' on the basis of prior voting. I suspect their raw data would be similar to the others. That is why I omit Opinium from my monthly polling average as they method is not appropriate for what I am seeking to do. All the same, that is the first time I've seen LAB polling less than 40% for yonks. Hopefully that will concentrate minds where it needs to. I haven't seen the crossbreak figures for "yonks". Are they a subdivision of the population that I haven't noted before?  |
|
|
|
Post by James E on Sept 30, 2023 22:48:29 GMT
The previous Opinium poll two weeks ago was 41/26 per their methodology, but would have been 45/23 witout re-weighting. So a net 7-point 'adjustment.
We don't yet have their tables, but a 5-7 point adjustment is normal.
Incidentally, the 'Don't Knows' are not re-allocated on the basis of their past vote; the positive responses of each demographic group are re-weighted to reflect the turnout of GE2019, to counteract the disproportionate number of DKs in some group (esp Con 2019) . This is why Opinium often show high VI for Reform UK as well as the Conservatives.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2023 23:02:38 GMT
All the same, that is the first time I've seen LAB polling less than 40% for yonks. Hopefully that will concentrate minds where it needs to. I haven't seen the crossbreak figures for "yonks". Are they a subdivision of the population that I haven't noted before? Not sure, but to paraphrase Mr E Blackadder, 'yonks' is "a common word down our way", much like 'contrafibularities'. youtu.be/hOSYiT2iG08?si=w98nf4y7qR0FMr4M |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,553
|
Post by neilj on Oct 1, 2023 4:47:21 GMT
I doubt you'll find mercian in the saloon bar I don't think I've seen a Saloon Bar for decades. Didn't they go the way of Smoke Rooms and Snugs? EDIT: Since you assume my view on the 20 mph limit thing, I'm with those who have been saying it's fine around schools, narrow roads and so on, but a blanket limit in urban areas is over the top. I know that in rush hours it's often nose-to-tail crawls, but as a retiree why should I have to drive at twenty during the day on relatively clear roads with no kids about? You'll be happy then there isn't a blanket limit in all urban areas and the tories have been less than truthful in saying there was www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/fact-check-wales-bringing-blanket-27691370Fact check: Is Wales bringing in a 'blanket' 20mph rule? 'In simple terms, the Welsh Government is automatically changing all streets/roads that are 30mph to 20mph. There are several reasons why this doesn't constitute a "blanket" change. Firstly, this does not apply to any other roads. If a roads is 10, 40, 50, 60 or 70mph they will not change. You are not going to drive from North Wales to South Wales on the A470 at a continuous 20mph (though you may have to go at 20 instead of 30 through some villages). The fact that only 30mph roads are changing means this is absolutely not a "blanket" change. Secondly, this change doesn't even apply to all 30mph roads. Local authorities have the power to keep roads at 30mph if they want to. This is happening all over the country. Big arterial routes in Cardiff for example like North Road and Newport Road are being kept at 30mph. In areas of Monmouthshire like Caldicot, roads that became 20mph under the new limit have already been increased back to 30 because of local pressure. This is very clearly not a blanket rule because not even all 30mphs are changing' |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,553
|
Post by neilj on Oct 1, 2023 5:12:49 GMT
Interesting thread about possible election date
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,553
|
Post by neilj on Oct 1, 2023 5:29:54 GMT
Most recent Poll results by pollsters showing Labour lead (most recent first)
18%
@techneuk
20%
@wethinkpolling
10%
@opiniumresearch
21%
@yougov
16%
@deltapolluk
15%
@redfieldwilton
14%
@savanta_UK
20%
@ipsosuk
16%
@kantarpublic
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,748
|
Post by steve on Oct 1, 2023 6:41:51 GMT
neiljOf course it isn't a blanket ban just as in Spain where the normal urban speed limit is 30kph and 20 where there are shared roads ( no pavements ) you will find plenty of main non residential or commercial roads in towns and cities where the speed limits are 40 or 50, urban duel carriageway are normally set at 90. The equivalent to our national speed limit on non urban roads is 90kph 56 mph and on motorways it's up to 120 kph 75 mph. Spain hasn't ground to a halt because of its generally lower speed limits and over the last decade spain has economically pretty consistently outperformed the uk in terms of growth in gdp and average income and while these are still significantly lower than the UK you get a heck of a lot more bang for your buck(or euro). Faith and I are still hoping to enjoy our much delayed retirement to Spain in a couple of years time and despite national idiots day and the pointless additional cost and restrictions it's imposed together with the impact on the exchange rates money goes around 50% further in our chosen destination than here. As our choice is also very popular with Scandinavians particularly Norwegians it does make it more pricey than some areas. In less cosmopolitan Spain it's entirely possible to live a reasonably comfortable retirement on the equivalent of the UK state pension, as we have quite a bit more than that it's going to be nice for our golden years.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,748
|
Post by steve on Oct 1, 2023 6:51:00 GMT
"Russia-Ukraine war live: Joe Biden urges Congress to approve Ukraine aid after it was left out of US funding bill"
There's a section of the far right maga movement that strongly approves of war criminal Putin and any other dictator for that matter , not remotely surprising,given that their traitor,rapist, fraudster leader is a wannabe dictator as well.
While the majority of republicans in congress support providing aid to Ukraine in the house under McCarthy they are in general spineless and will suplicate themselves before the dear deranged leader.
That being said with no functional republican majority in the house enough republicans will! almost certainly pass a bi partisan military aid package, the Senate is no issue the vast majority of Senate republicans are on board
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,149
|
Post by domjg on Oct 1, 2023 7:05:02 GMT
I haven't seen the crossbreak figures for "yonks". Are they a subdivision of the population that I haven't noted before? Not sure, but to paraphrase Mr E Blackadder, 'yonks' is "a common word down our way", much like 'contrafibularities'. youtu.be/hOSYiT2iG08?si=w98nf4y7qR0FMr4MWe used to use 'yonks' when I was at primary school. Can't honestly say I've heard it much since then however but I do sometimes still use it myself. |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Oct 1, 2023 7:14:23 GMT
On the basis of my time honoured and homespun theory that divided and unpopular political parties benefit from time out of the public gaze, probably the last thing the Tories want at the moment is their annual Conference where those divisions and unpopular politicians receive the full glare of media coverage.
On the other hand, political parties far ahead in the opinion polls and aspiring to win power in a general election not far away, can gain great benefit from some overdue time in the sun and the opportunity to both parade their vision and attack their beleaguered opponents with media attention assured.
On the basis that my first paragraph describes the Tories and my second Labour, I would expect the Labour opinion poll lead to widen in about a couple of weeks time.
Probably Starmer's last big set piece speech before the election too. Snippets on major news bulletins at peak viewing time and a big opportunity to land some blows and drift sound bites into the public discourse.
In contrast, Sunak is on a damage limitation mission this week.
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,149
|
Post by domjg on Oct 1, 2023 7:15:35 GMT
"Russia-Ukraine war live: Joe Biden urges Congress to approve Ukraine aid after it was left out of US funding bill" There's a section of the far right maga movement that strongly approves of war criminal Putin and any other dictator for that matter , not remotely surprising,given that their traitor,rapist, fraudster leader is a wannabe dictator as well. While the majority of republicans in congress support providing aid to Ukraine in the house under McCarthy they are in general spineless and will suplicate themselves before the dear deranged leader. That being said with no functional republican majority in the house enough republicans will! almost certainly pass a bi partisan military aid package, the Senate is no issue the vast majority of Senate republicans are on board It's the usual theatre so I'm not worried re Ukraine. One thing that strikes me is that this shutdown/emergency aversion appears little different to the umpteen times this has happened over the last many years making me wonder if the republicans when it comes to it are not as ready to burn everything down as their rhetoric would suggest. Perhaps there's a bigger difference between that rhetoric and what they'd do in reality than many realise. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,553
|
Post by neilj on Oct 1, 2023 7:20:16 GMT
Runners and riders for the upcoming tory leadership election 😀
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,748
|
Post by steve on Oct 1, 2023 7:26:02 GMT
domjgIf the republicans had had a functional majority they would have past a bill with draconian cuts in services and christofascist anti women measures attached. It would of course have been rejected by the Senate and President but it wouldn't have stopped them. In reality more democrats than republicans voted for McCarthy 's temporary measure which required a two thirds majority 117 republicans voted no more than voted yes.
|
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Oct 1, 2023 7:35:18 GMT
|
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 1, 2023 8:13:45 GMT
Opinium @opiniumresearch · 20m 🚨Latest Opinium @observeruk poll: Labour lead down by 5 points to 10%. • Labour: 39% (-2) • Conservative: 29% (+3) • Liberal Democrat: 12% (+1) • SNP: 3% (nc) • Plaid Cymru: 1% (nc) • Green: 7% (nc) • Reform UK: 7% (-1) • Other: 2% (nc) Some pretty skittish polling lately. Deltapoll/Savanta/R&W/Tecne were 8/6/3/1pt reductions in LAB lead but the most recent YG/We Think were 5/3pts move in the opposite direction*. Opinium's methodology shows a lower LAB lead but is anyone calling the most recent YG an outlier (just to ensure they are being consistent)? As always the 'click-thru' to Opinium tables can be accessed from a link on their twitter info, or direct via link below: t.co/1S17X8PWNR* So overall a modest narrowing in recent weeks but well within the post 'Truss error' range. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election |
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 1, 2023 8:16:05 GMT
The previous Opinium poll two weeks ago was 41/26 per their methodology, but would have been 45/23 witout re-weighting. So a net 7-point 'adjustment. We don't yet have their tables, but a 5-7 point adjustment is normal. Incidentally, the 'Don't Knows' are not re-allocated on the basis of their past vote; the positive responses of each demographic group are re-weighted to reflect the turnout of GE2019, to counteract the disproportionate number of DKs in some group (esp Con 2019) . This is why Opinium often show high VI for Reform UK as well as the Conservatives. .xls file: t.co/1S17X8PWNRwhich can be found from clicking through from: |
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 1, 2023 8:27:17 GMT
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,748
|
Post by steve on Oct 1, 2023 8:31:38 GMT
What's wrong with this one?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2023 8:34:16 GMT
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,149
|
Post by domjg on Oct 1, 2023 8:46:32 GMT
He got 23% so will need lots of allies most of whom are still committed to supporting Ukraine. It's a result of a highly fragmented party system As for Poland we've been living with PiS for years. They're bonkers but a known quantity and well past their peak. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2023 9:00:09 GMT
He got 23% so will need lots of allies most of whom are still committed to supporting Ukraine. It's a result of a highly fragmented party systemYes- an increasing feature across so many western democracies. Except UK ! ? |
|
