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Post by mercian on Sept 29, 2023 13:21:09 GMT
and yet you and mercian have missed the way the Tories have run the whole of the UK for the past 13 years? I've said before that I am less than impressed with the current government and also that I think it has reached the end of its natural life, barring some huge unforeseen event such as Starmer having a victory party the night before the election as Kinnock did.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 29, 2023 13:39:22 GMT
Sunak saying aspirational parents want to send their children to private schools is implying those who can't are not aspirational for their children. In effect that 94% of parents don't care for their children's future Really can't see that playing well, seems an obvious misstep and one Starmer will jump on … Starmer - “Rishi Sunak is wrong to say that sending your children to state school isn't aspirational.” etc. Assuming that going to school is the aspirant thing to do…
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 29, 2023 13:43:43 GMT
Thank you. Very interesting. Some fascinating nuggets. For instance radio scores higher than social media for all ages > 45, and TV for all >35, which backs up my hunch. Yes, athena’s post was handy and the data highlights the slow decline of the mainstream channels. How might the Overton window move as other channels take over?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 29, 2023 14:12:25 GMT
Most taxpayers now want inheritance tax abolished, poll reveals Pressure grows on Rishi Sunak to scrap the divisive duty
“More than half of the country backs the abolition of inheritance tax, a poll carried out by YouGov has found.
The survey, which surveyed a nationally representative group of more than 2,000 people, found that, of those who voted Conservative in the last general election, 70pc said they supported the abolition of inheritance tax. Almost two-fifths of Labour voters agreed the death levy should be scrapped.
More than two-fifths of 18 to 24 year-olds said they supported scrapping inheritance tax, compared with 32pc who said they opposed. A quarter said they did not know.”
…
“The poll found around two in three people support increasing the basic threshold of £325,000, which has been frozen since 2009 and without intervention will remain so until 2028.”
Telegraph
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Sept 29, 2023 14:21:45 GMT
Most taxpayers now want inheritance tax abolished, poll revealsPressure grows on Rishi Sunak to scrap the divisive duty “ More than half of the country backs the abolition of inheritance tax, a poll carried out by YouGov has found.
The survey, which surveyed a nationally representative group of more than 2,000 people, found that, of those who voted Conservative in the last general election, 70pc said they supported the abolition of inheritance tax. Almost two-fifths of Labour voters agreed the death levy should be scrapped.
More than two-fifths of 18 to 24 year-olds said they supported scrapping inheritance tax, compared with 32pc who said they opposed. A quarter said they did not know.” … “ The poll found around two in three people support increasing the basic threshold of £325,000, which has been frozen since 2009 and without intervention will remain so until 2028.” Telegraph Shocker people want tax cuts Did they ask which taxes they wanted to put up or services cut to pay for it? Or perhaps they preferred to increase borrowing to finance the rax cuts that only 3.76 of estates will pay
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 29, 2023 14:32:12 GMT
Most taxpayers now want inheritance tax abolished, poll revealsPressure grows on Rishi Sunak to scrap the divisive duty “ More than half of the country backs the abolition of inheritance tax, a poll carried out by YouGov has found.
The survey, which surveyed a nationally representative group of more than 2,000 people, found that, of those who voted Conservative in the last general election, 70pc said they supported the abolition of inheritance tax. Almost two-fifths of Labour voters agreed the death levy should be scrapped.
More than two-fifths of 18 to 24 year-olds said they supported scrapping inheritance tax, compared with 32pc who said they opposed. A quarter said they did not know.” … “ The poll found around two in three people support increasing the basic threshold of £325,000, which has been frozen since 2009 and without intervention will remain so until 2028.” Telegraph Shocker people want tax cuts Did they ask which taxes they wanted to put up or services cut to pay for it? Or perhaps they preferred to increase borrowing to finance the rax cuts that only 3.76 of estates will pay I’m guessing Neil, but they might want someone else to pay for it
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Sept 29, 2023 14:35:07 GMT
Sunak saying aspirational parents want to send their children to private schools is implying those who can't are not aspirational for their children. In effect that 94% of parents don't care for their children's future Really can't see that playing well, seems an obvious misstep and one Starmer will jump on … Starmer - “Rishi Sunak is wrong to say that sending your children to state school isn't aspirational.” etc. Assuming that going to school is the aspirant thing to do… This is a similar issue as t'other and the missing word "SOME" EG SOME multicultural people have successfully integrated into British society and SOME have "failed" to do so and exist as a "nation within a nation" (to use the phrase used by a former head of the Commission for Racial Equality (CRE). EG SOME parents who have high aspirations for their children might choose to forgo expensive holidays, or a fancy car, or whatever to send their kids to a private school. SOME parents might move into the catchment area for a grammar school. SOME parents might instead make time+money sacrifices so their kids can have sport/music lessons and matches. SOME parents might focus on a caring environment at home ensuring their kids healthy, etc. SOME parents, hopefully only a small %, might not give a shit about their kids' future. What is certain under LAB's "still evolving" policy on Private Schools is that maintaining charitable status but charging VAT will create loopholes that the very rich can exploit (see earlier post) but those who intend to pay private school fees out of monthly salaries will get hit with. So the very rich won't pay any extra tax and SOME children whose parents had high aspirations for their children but don't have 'inherited' wealth will likely have to scrap their plans and send their kids to a state school (not that there is anything wrong with that, just that the 'less well off' will have to change their plans - not the very rich). I've no idea why SOME people can't understand that. NB As per our futile discussion t'other day then folks can SOMEtimes not define who they mean (eg 'Tories' might mean everyone who votes CON (and LAB as Tory Plan B), just CON members or just CON MPs). A Q&A session is the opportunity to request clarity on whether SOMEone meant 100%, 5-10% or whatever. PS Any "cake and eat it" polling (ie anything expressed as a tax cut or spending increase without stating the 'funding' implications) is worthless IMO but of course politically biased sources will still ask those kind of questions.
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Post by leftieliberal on Sept 29, 2023 14:46:21 GMT
Savanta have been one of the pollsters (with Opinium) recording a high Tory vote. Last time's 26% was their lowest from the last 20 polls, and 2% below the next lowest.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Sept 29, 2023 14:46:48 GMT
Wethink poll
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Sept 29, 2023 14:49:01 GMT
Very good thread on private schools by Anthony Wells, well worth reading the whole thread
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 29, 2023 14:52:14 GMT
1/ What CON need to do: - deliver, deliver, deliver (on economy, NHS waiting lists and immigration - 'likely CON' most important issues) This morning news reported GDP figures had been revised upwards. Great news, they said. Only...if the price of all goods and services rises 10%, as a result of inflation, then GDP has risen 10%. Is that really good news? Immigration... a classic example, where most people welcome immigrants to the UK. But not conservative voters. So what exactly does delivering mean? In particular, what do the crossover group think who might be swayed between lab and con?
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Post by leftieliberal on Sept 29, 2023 14:59:02 GMT
Most taxpayers now want inheritance tax abolished, poll revealsPressure grows on Rishi Sunak to scrap the divisive duty “ More than half of the country backs the abolition of inheritance tax, a poll carried out by YouGov has found.
The survey, which surveyed a nationally representative group of more than 2,000 people, found that, of those who voted Conservative in the last general election, 70pc said they supported the abolition of inheritance tax. Almost two-fifths of Labour voters agreed the death levy should be scrapped.
More than two-fifths of 18 to 24 year-olds said they supported scrapping inheritance tax, compared with 32pc who said they opposed. A quarter said they did not know.” … “ The poll found around two in three people support increasing the basic threshold of £325,000, which has been frozen since 2009 and without intervention will remain so until 2028.” Telegraph Shocker people want tax cuts Did they ask which taxes they wanted to put up or services cut to pay for it? Or perhaps they preferred to increase borrowing to finance the rax cuts that only 3.76 of estates will pay In truth, IHT only raises £7bn a year, so it isn't much of a contributor to Government revenue. See Hamish McRea in the i newspaper: inews.co.uk/opinion/scrapping-inheritancee-tax-fine-rich-people-properties-instead-2645782 The real problem as he points out is that the super-rich (e.g. the Duke of Westminster) pay almost no IHT because their assets are in trusts of which they are the beneficiaries.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 29, 2023 14:59:15 GMT
I generally find Owen Jones a bit difficult (perhaps too earnest and rigid) however his article today is about Braverman and that wing of the Conservatives defining "Britishness" the article is worth a read in full but I like this quote in particular: i have no idea how Braverman, as a foreigner herself, was ever allowed to become an MP. She must agree with that herself. How many generations does a family have to be citizens of a state, in order to qualify as being no longer a foreigner?
You appear to be sanctifying your idiosyncratic version of national identity - and in a very nasty way.All I am doing is pointing out the obvious contradiction of her own position. Her family arrived here in previous waves of immigration where the local population was just as conflicted over their arrival. Its all about pulling up the drawbridge once you are across it. Either its right to follow the same rules and let people in both now and then, or we exclude people both now and then. So if she believs in the not letting in, her obvious choice would be to act on her belief, take up her original nationality and depart. Its not what I am recommending its what she is recommending. She should take her own advice and go.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 29, 2023 15:07:43 GMT
What precisely is being banned, drivers can still drive it's just they need to keep their speed to an appropriate level in a residential zone. I heard a curious justification of lower speeds arguing it would only add 1 minute to average journeys. All sounds very negligible until you consider that maybe ten million journeys each year one minute longer? More? And was that really a calculated 1 minute or just a wild guess? I posted before but didnt see you reply, the only way to stop cars killing kids would be toban them completely. Is that acceptable? I think not. So really the issue is to choose a speed which is a good compromise between harm and minimisation. Is that 30? 20? And we should recall all this started with pollution reduction measure. Reducing speeds to 20 instead of 30 will increas fuel usage and hence pollution. What is the death score from that? We should all notice perhaps that over the last 50 years many speed limits have already been reduced.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 29, 2023 15:08:24 GMT
Erm, sharing a bedroom at least is POLICY!
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 29, 2023 15:14:05 GMT
Worth noting that the full report of the recent care home pirola outbreak report is now published, and it has some interesting points. We knew about the attack rate (c85%) but interestingly, this was among a group vaccinated just 16 weeks previously. So it gives some insight into what we can expect in terms of vaccine efficacy against infection (not much at all). For once being on the pro vaccine side, we all know vaccines are pretty useless at preventing infection, and that is essentially agreed everywhere. The remaining claim is they reduce severity. Sadly thats what covid does, which it has in common with many other diseases. It attacks the old and weak. Throughout the epidemic it was when covid reached care homes that a wave of deaths began. Or alternatively, we need to re-examine all the deaths previously attributed to covid and see how many really were not. .
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 29, 2023 15:18:54 GMT
Sunak saying aspirational parents want to send their children to private schools is implying those who can't are not aspirational for their children. In effect that 94% of parents don't care for their children's future Really can't see that playing well, seems an obvious misstep and one Starmer will jump on What both are dancing around is the awful quality of many state schools. Con because they have created the situation, and lab because they cannot promise to do anything about it.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Sept 29, 2023 15:23:18 GMT
WRT to LAB's "evolving" private schools policy then in terms of ££ raised, it all depends on the assumptions used. EG if most 'very rich' parents pay for their kids education in advance before the 20% VAT comes in and a higher than guessed% of 'less well off' parents can't afford that, so send their kids to a state school then LAB's policy will end up being revenue -ve and cause even worse overcrowding issues in some state schools. The £1.6billion/year 'claim' by LAB uses different assumptions of cause and I don't have access to the 'multiverse' to see what the impact will actually be. Seems a risky move IMO but given LAB have next to no 'Red' water to differentiate themselves from CON then I can see why attacking aspiration might help LAB shore up some 'traditional' LAB voters into GE'24. If their assumptions are 'wrong' and the 20% VAT ends up raising very little 'net' tax revenue and some private schools shut, overwhelming local state schools... well they was Warned it was a stupid idea (if someone wants to put my comments in a 'scrapbook') LAB's policy has already been 'watered down' (not quite a 'U-turn' IMO) and perhaps they water it down further (eg start at 5% VAT and see how that goes). However, being constantly called a 'flip-flopper' is probably starting to grate with Starmer so maybe the private school policy doesn't 'evolve' any further and Starmer-Reeves wait for reality to take care of itself.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Sept 29, 2023 15:32:39 GMT
Lammy might have been keeping his head down but nice to see the LW-twitterverse not applying any racism (positive or otherwise) in their research and attacks on LAB shadow cabinet members. I admit to Lammy having fooled me as a fully signed up 'Corbynista' when it was cool to be a Corbynista. Not sure he's as Tory as likes of Streeting but when people change their views so dramatically with the wind it's hard to know what they stand for - if they stand for anything at all (other than getting into power).
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 29, 2023 15:34:29 GMT
Very good thread on private schools by Anthony Wells, well worth reading the whole thread The one point he didnt consider, though its mentioned in responses, is that fees will affcet more than just parents. Its likely the extended family which is paying, and will be influenced by the impact on the whole family.
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Post by leftieliberal on Sept 29, 2023 15:44:01 GMT
Another blunder from the Tufton Street mafia - this time on the cost of net zero. www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/29/how-a-thinktank-got-the-cost-of-net-zero-for-the-uk-wildly-wrongImagine demanding an “honest” debate over the cost of net zero in a report full of errors that even a schoolboy would be embarrassed about. Then imagine getting coverage of your report in the Sun, Times, Daily Mail, Daily Express and Spectator.
Sound impossible? Well, let me tell you how Civitas, one of the thinktanks housed at 55 Tufton Street in London, did exactly that, and nearly got away with it.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Sept 29, 2023 15:53:31 GMT
Another blunder from the Tufton Street mafia - this time on the cost of net zero. www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/29/how-a-thinktank-got-the-cost-of-net-zero-for-the-uk-wildly-wrongImagine demanding an “honest” debate over the cost of net zero in a report full of errors that even a schoolboy would be embarrassed about. Then imagine getting coverage of your report in the Sun, Times, Daily Mail, Daily Express and Spectator.
Sound impossible? Well, let me tell you how Civitas, one of the thinktanks housed at 55 Tufton Street in London, did exactly that, and nearly got away with it.That's the British (English) right wing establishment for you
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 29, 2023 16:00:19 GMT
Sunak saying aspirational parents want to send their children to private schools is implying those who can't are not aspirational for their children. In effect that 94% of parents don't care for their children's future Really can't see that playing well, seems an obvious misstep and one Starmer will jump on It is the kind of error that the former head boy at Winchester, who pointed out he had never met anyone working class, might be expected to make.
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Post by Mark on Sept 29, 2023 16:08:33 GMT
The cross break for the 18 to 24 group on todays poll is remarkable, even with all of the normal caveats about sample size these are remarkable figures. Labour 69% Green 11% Lib Dem 9% SNP 6% Others 5% Reform 1% Tories 1% Wow! Just wow! As well as the caveats about small cross breaks, my first thought is....that has to e an outlier. Having said that, it would have to be a way, way, way heavy outlier not to spell trouble for te tories. I have long said that today's younger voters are (and especially since brexit) far more socially liberal than their older peers....and also that if he tories continue on their current path they are digging themselves into a hole. Braverman's (IMO vile) speech on immigration, Sunak rolling back on cliate change measures, anti-EU stuff...it's just not reaching the younger cohort...and if anything, putting them off. Tories, on their current path being in real trouble could well happen sooner than even I anticipated. I also don't see a reversal of this trend in those not yet old enough to vote...hardly scientific, but, from what I am seeing in vox pops, kids of friends etc, the skew to social liberalism appears to be just as strong. Eithor the tories need to change tack or risk being replaced by a new economically centre right party 10-15 year down the line.
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Post by birdseye on Sept 29, 2023 16:10:29 GMT
Sunak saying aspirational parents want to send their children to private schools is implying those who can't are not aspirational for their children. In effect that 94% of parents don't care for their children's future Really can't see that playing well, seems an obvious misstep and one Starmer will jump on Cant see where aspiration comes into letting your child go to the school chosen for him/her by the local authority. You aspire for something better than ordinary and state schools are ordinary.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 29, 2023 16:19:46 GMT
.Cant see where aspiration comes into letting your child go to the school chosen for him/her by the local authority. You aspire for something better than ordinary and state schools are ordinary. The standard for state schools to achieve at least used to be to reach the average attainemnt of all state schools. Aspire to be average.
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 29, 2023 16:23:42 GMT
At the age of 90 Senator Diane Feinstein died this morning, she set many new achievements for female politicians over her more than thirty years of service as a senator.
Under California law Governor Gavin Newsom will appoint a replacement in this deep blue state it will of course be a Democrat who will serve until the next Senate election for this seat which occurs in November 2024
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Sept 29, 2023 16:27:27 GMT
Sunak saying aspirational parents want to send their children to private schools is implying those who can't are not aspirational for their children. In effect that 94% of parents don't care for their children's future Really can't see that playing well, seems an obvious misstep and one Starmer will jump on Cant see where aspiration comes into letting your child go to the school chosen for him/her by the local authority. You aspire for something better than ordinary and state schools are ordinary. My child goes to a state school academy that teaches her in two languages, gives international qualifications, has a great international vibe and will allow her easy escape from brexit little England with it's poisonous, private school propagated class structure. My wife wanted to consider private schools especially for secondary. Not in this country, no way was my response. They propagate a culture of entitlement and meanness in a dreary mono cultural, English setting, no matter how many sports pitches or minibuses they may have. Where she is now is international and enriching. You are aware that you can put schools in order of preference and you don't just get assigned to the nearest one by default unless you want to?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Sept 29, 2023 16:40:54 GMT
Cant see where aspiration comes into letting your child go to the school chosen for him/her by the local authority. You aspire for something better than ordinary and state schools are ordinary. My child goes to a state school academy that teaches her in two languages, gives international qualifications, has a great international vibe and will allow her easy escape from brexit little England with it's poisonous, private school propagated class structure. My wife wanted to consider private schools especially for secondary. Not in this country, no way was my response. They propagate a culture of entitlement and meanness in a dreary mono cultural, English setting, no matter how many sports pitches or minibuses they may have. Where she is now is international and enriching. You are aware that you can put schools in order of preference and you don't just get assigned to the nearest one by default unless you want to? birdseye is a perfect example of how Sunak thinks, the 94% who send their kids to state schools can't have aspirations for their children
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 29, 2023 16:43:42 GMT
Sunak saying aspirational parents want to send their children to private schools is implying those who can't are not aspirational for their children. In effect that 94% of parents don't care for their children's future Really can't see that playing well, seems an obvious misstep and one Starmer will jump on Cant see where aspiration comes into letting your child go to the school chosen for him/her by the local authority. You aspire for something better than ordinary and state schools are ordinary. Most people can't afford private school fees, that doesn't mean they don't want their children to do well. I take it you are privately educated given the arrogance implicit in that comment.
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