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Post by leftieliberal on Sept 29, 2023 16:44:05 GMT
The cross break for the 18 to 24 group on todays poll is remarkable, even with all of the normal caveats about sample size these are remarkable figures. Labour 69% Green 11% Lib Dem 9% SNP 6% Others 5% Reform 1% Tories 1% Wow! Just wow! As well as the caveats about small cross breaks, my first thought is....that has to e an outlier. Back at the beginning of March my analysis of R&W's cross breaks for the first two months of this year ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/73111 had the Tories at 17% amongst 18-24 year-olds on a much larger sample. This poll is a rogue and illustrates why you need to take cross breaks from a single poll with a very big pinch of salt.
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Post by leftieliberal on Sept 29, 2023 16:49:00 GMT
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Sept 29, 2023 16:53:03 GMT
Why is aspiration supposed to be such a good thing? Aspire to what exactly?
I wanted a lot of things for my kids when they were growing up - only some supplied by school: clear thinking; kindness; self -knowledge, skills; human decency. Some kind of weird competitiveness to 'get ahead' of their contemporaries into well-paid jobs they might be badly suited to, was not among them.
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Post by alec on Sept 29, 2023 16:56:25 GMT
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Post by alec on Sept 29, 2023 16:58:29 GMT
patrickbrian - the other meaning of aspiration is the inhaling of liquid into the lungs, so, like, drowning. Perhaps that what Sunak means, as it fits the state of the country better than the other meaning?
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 29, 2023 16:58:44 GMT
The rest of yesterday's by-election results (I posted one earlier today). Nothing much to see here (although the SNP are starting to be on a long run of losses now)
Wolverhampton Bushbury South and Low Hill - Lab hold Lab 59.2% (-5.4) Con 22.1% (-0.5) LD 12.0% (-0.8) Grn 6.7% (New)
South Norfolk DC South Wymondham - Lib Dem hold LD 35.0 (-12.4) Con 32.8 (+4.9) Lab 21.2 (-3.5) Grn 10.9 (New)
South Norfolk DC Mulbarton and Stoke Hay Cross - Lib Dem hold LD 37.1 (-11.3) Con 24.2 (-10.8) Oth 22.5 (New) Lab 9.1 (-7.4) Grn 7.1 (New)
Highland UA Tain & Easter Ross - Ind gain from SNP (figures are first prefs) Ind (Ross) 41.5% (New) Lib Dem 24.5% (+3.0) SNP 18.8% (-11.8) Con 8.4 (-2.2) Lab 3.6% (New) Grn 2.3% (New) Libertarian 0.9% (New)
Absent - two other prior Independents with a combined first preference vote of 37.2%
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 29, 2023 17:24:38 GMT
Earlier this year hate peddlers the Mail on Sunday chose to publish a catalogue of disinformation from our racist home Secretary. Braverman's target in this instance were British men of Pakistani origin or ethnicity , Braverman stated that these people made up the overwhelming majority of grooming gangs. This allegation is what we in the police service call a load of cobblers, it's an easily disprovable lie which can be confirmed by reference to the home office own data. We of course know when Braverman is lying because her mouth moved and sounds come out of it. Today the Sunday hate was forced to apologise by ipso here's the ruling. "Secretary, Suella Braverman’s claims that child-grooming gangs were almost exclusively ‘all British Pakistani’ men, was a false claim. The Mail on Sunday was therefore found to be in breach of the Press standards for reproducing Braverman’s false claims, suggesting that British Pakistani men committed child sexual abuses by virtue of their: ‘cultural attitudes completely incompatible with British values’ which ‘have been left mostly unchallenged both within their communities and by wider society’. Ordered to apologise and correct false assertions The Mail on Sunday has been ordered to publish an apology and to correct the article with the acknowledgement that her central assertions were false. IPSO’s ruling determined that the Home Secretary’s decision to draw a link ‘between an ‘identified ethnic group and a particular form of offending was significantly misleading’, especially given that the Home Office’s own research clearly showed that most offenders were from white backgrounds." This of course won't prevent Braverman continuing to spew up further lies in the basis that this is the sort of shit that conservative party members want to hear and will come in handy when she makes her bid as replacement fuhrer after or perhaps even before the general election. youtu.be/fPak3rgHSAg?si=6w5rFZKTz8jWnU88
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Post by crossbat11 on Sept 29, 2023 17:26:22 GMT
Fuzzy Zoeller, Billy Casper, Tiger Woods, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Donald Trump...... your boys took a hell of a beating today.
Well, on Day 1 of the Ryder Cup in Rome, they did.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Sept 29, 2023 17:27:13 GMT
Biden was surprisingly nimble and witty with his response here
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Sept 29, 2023 17:28:17 GMT
Why is aspiration supposed to be such a good thing? Aspire to what exactly? I wanted a lot of things for my kids when they were growing up - only some supplied by school: clear thinking; kindness; self -knowledge, skills; human decency. Some kind of weird competitiveness to 'get ahead' of their contemporaries into well-paid jobs they might be badly suited to, was not among them. IMO it is pretty simple: "Aspire to be the best that you (or your kids) can be"* - not of all which are supplied by the school they attend, did anyone say they were (eg see my earlier post)? Of course some people might be suited to well-paid jobs - others? Perhaps not. Starmer needs to tread carefully given the school he went to and how successful his career has been! * Perhaps that's a bit of an RoC view and I'm fairly sure most private schools would claim they provide a lot more than just a good academic education (eg stuff like clear thinking; kindness; self-knowledge, skills; human decency as well as better opportunities in many sports, music, arts as well as a reduced risk of being 'led astray' by kids whose parents perhaps have less aspiration for how their kids turn out). That might appear weird to you - others? Perhaps not.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Sept 29, 2023 17:30:50 GMT
The cross break for the 18 to 24 group on todays poll is remarkable, even with all of the normal caveats about sample size these are remarkable figures.... Wow! Just wow! As well as the caveats about small cross breaks... Not sure what poll is being mentioned but is it one where they weight the age x-breaks? UKPR2 certainly misses AW's reminders about 'caveats' on polling (IMO of course).
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 29, 2023 17:32:04 GMT
neilj Comparison with the rapist fraudster who asked his audience to beat up and throw out anyone not of the faith.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Sept 29, 2023 17:34:18 GMT
Ipsos Issues Index: September 2023
"Public concern about immigration* rises to the highest level in six years, though the economy and inflation remain the most important issues according to the September 2023 Ipsos Issues Index" www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ipsos-issues-index-september-2023* Notably for >65s and CON VI
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Post by Rafwan on Sept 29, 2023 17:47:46 GMT
Cant see where aspiration comes into letting your child go to the school chosen for him/her by the local authority. You aspire for something better than ordinary and state schools are ordinary. My child goes to a state school academy that teaches her in two languages, gives international qualifications, has a great international vibe and will allow her easy escape from brexit little England with it's poisonous, private school propagated class structure. My wife wanted to consider private schools especially for secondary. Not in this country, no way was my response. They propagate a culture of entitlement and meanness in a dreary mono cultural, English setting, no matter how many sports pitches or minibuses they may have. Where she is now is international and enriching. You are aware that you can put schools in order of preference and you don't just get assigned to the nearest one by default unless you want to? Thanks, Dom, such a relief to read the simple reasoning of your post (and subsequent posters as well). What a dreary, monocular world birdie lives in.
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Post by RAF on Sept 29, 2023 17:54:26 GMT
Ipsos Issues Index: September 2023
"Public concern about immigration* rises to the highest level in six years, though the economy and inflation remain the most important issues according to the September 2023 Ipsos Issues Index" www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ipsos-issues-index-september-2023* Notably for >65s and CON VI An act of genius for the Tories to raise the prominence of an issue over which they have totally failed.
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Post by crossbat11 on Sept 29, 2023 17:56:05 GMT
My child goes to a state school academy that teaches her in two languages, gives international qualifications, has a great international vibe and will allow her easy escape from brexit little England with it's poisonous, private school propagated class structure. My wife wanted to consider private schools especially for secondary. Not in this country, no way was my response. They propagate a culture of entitlement and meanness in a dreary mono cultural, English setting, no matter how many sports pitches or minibuses they may have. Where she is now is international and enriching. You are aware that you can put schools in order of preference and you don't just get assigned to the nearest one by default unless you want to? Thanks, Dom, such a relief to read the simple reasoning of your post (and subsequent posters as well). What a dreary, monocular world birdie lives in. Birdies aplenty for Luke's boys in Rome today.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Sept 29, 2023 18:11:03 GMT
Ipsos Issues Index: September 2023
"Public concern about immigration* rises to the highest level in six years, though the economy and inflation remain the most important issues according to the September 2023 Ipsos Issues Index" www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ipsos-issues-index-september-2023* Notably for >65s and CON VI An act of genius for the Tories to raise the prominence of an issue over which they have totally failed. If they don't get it sorted before GE'24 then I'd agree with your sarcasm. I'll add an additional 'plausible scenario' for GE'24 outcome editing my earlier post* with a plausible 'worst case' for CON: None of us have a time machine but I'll post a plausible worst case scenario for CON outcome in GE'24, noting polling on stuff like immigration already 'prices in' CON being viewed as crap. I'll split the next bit into three sections although they do overlap to some extent. 1/ What CON could screw up even more than they currently are - Fail to deliver, fail to deliver, fail to deliver (on economy, NHS waiting lists and immigration - 'likely CON' most important issues) - which COULD see CON VI decrease via a further 4% to RUK, a further 4% from 'hero voters' as more 'defect' to LAB (which is worth double bubble) on the basis that they want to kick CON out and LAB are best placed ABCON in most seats. A further 4% to WNV/DK (who abstain on the day) = CON could get <20% in GE'24 (about where they were in the dying days of Maybot era when 'wipe out' was possible) 2/ What is outside of CON's control but might get worse by GE'24 - Global inflation headwind doesn't reverse, BoE's rate hikes cause a recession leading to stagflation and higher unemployment - Tunisia/Libya deals with EU collapse and the 'floodgates' of irregular immigration open to Italy/elsewhere. France-UK deal collapses and the floodgates open to UK. Rwanda scheme is stuck in the courts and illegal immigration into UK next year makes 2022/3 look like a trickle. 3/ ABCON parties 'hinder' CON - Starmer stops 'flip-flopping' and actually comes out with some well thought out policies - LDEM/Green DON'T 'differentiate' themselves and LAB unites most of the ABCON vote with a boost to historic tactical voting at a seat specific level = LAB might get to > 50% and win an absolutely massive majority - With CON's Rwanda scheme stuck in the courts and Rishi-Braverman doing nothing about that then RUK's immigration policy (immediately leave ECHR) becomes appealing to a lot of CON'19 and splits the vote. NB Above is not a prediction. I appreciate that is 'everything going wrong' on the night to see CON wiped out in GE'24 (ie down to LDEM kind of numbers of MPs and 3rd/4th party in UK, with RUK failing to get any seats but poised to replace CON as the 'RoC' party) * An unlikely but plausible scenario where CON win OM in GE'24: ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/103006/thread
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 29, 2023 18:21:27 GMT
Wise words from a genuine Conservative who recognises that his former party has changed fundamentally:
"as David Gauke, former justice secretary and editor of a new collection of essays, many by fellow Conservative exiles, put it when he and I (Jonathan Freedland) spoke this week: for today’s Tories, “problems are there to be exploited, rather than to be solved”.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 29, 2023 18:29:15 GMT
* Perhaps that's a bit of an RoC view and I'm fairly sure most private schools would claim they provide a lot more than just a good academic education (eg stuff like clear thinking; kindness; self-knowledge, skills; human decency as well as better opportunities in many sports, music, arts as well as a reduced risk of being 'led astray' by kids whose parents perhaps have less aspiration for how their kids turn out). That might appear weird to you - others? Perhaps not. What a self-satisfied and deluded bunch of people public schools seem to produce. No wonder they are simultaneously massively egotistical but completely crap at delivering anything. God knows how a knuckle-dragging bog-standard comprehensive troglodyte like me ever became a Chartered Accountant. Still I guess it explains why I'm such a unkind, evil, indecent bastard hooked on class A drugs.
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 29, 2023 18:46:49 GMT
It was a teenage d***head. If the identity of the teenage dickhead leaks, as it probably will, he will have to be taken into custody for his own safety, as literally hundreds of thousands of people are deeply offended, and some of them will have no compunction in showing it.
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Post by johntel on Sept 29, 2023 18:50:10 GMT
* Perhaps that's a bit of an RoC view and I'm fairly sure most private schools would claim they provide a lot more than just a good academic education (eg stuff like clear thinking; kindness; self-knowledge, skills; human decency as well as better opportunities in many sports, music, arts as well as a reduced risk of being 'led astray' by kids whose parents perhaps have less aspiration for how their kids turn out). That might appear weird to you - others? Perhaps not. What a self-satisfied and deluded bunch of people public schools seem to produce. No wonder they are simultaneously massively egotistical but completely crap at delivering anything. God knows how a knuckle-dragging bog-standard comprehensive troglodyte like me ever became a Chartered Accountant. Still I guess it explains why I'm such a unkind, evil, indecent bastard hooked on class A drugs. A very suitable punishment if you ask me
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 29, 2023 18:52:31 GMT
It was a teenage d***head. If the identity of the teenage dickhead leaks, as it probably will, he will have to be taken into custody for his own safety, as literally hundreds of thousands of people are deeply offended, and some of them will have no compunction in showing it. It is interesting that there is so much more coverage (and outrage) about a 16 year old cutting down a tree than there is over a 17 year old murdering a 15 year old girl. I suppose the former is less common than the latter, sadly*. (* For clarity, I am not suggesting more trees should be cut down, rather that fewer girls should be murdered)
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 29, 2023 18:54:30 GMT
What a self-satisfied and deluded bunch of people public schools seem to produce. No wonder they are simultaneously massively egotistical but completely crap at delivering anything. God knows how a knuckle-dragging bog-standard comprehensive troglodyte like me ever became a Chartered Accountant. Still I guess it explains why I'm such a unkind, evil, indecent bastard hooked on class A drugs. A very suitable punishment if you ask me Which is why I escaped to doing other things in practice, although I still pay my membership subs each year
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Sept 29, 2023 18:54:49 GMT
* Perhaps that's a bit of an RoC view and I'm fairly sure most private schools would claim they provide a lot more than just a good academic education (eg stuff like clear thinking; kindness; self-knowledge, skills; human decency as well as better opportunities in many sports, music, arts as well as a reduced risk of being 'led astray' by kids whose parents perhaps have less aspiration for how their kids turn out). That might appear weird to you - others? Perhaps not. What a self-satisfied and deluded bunch of people public schools seem to produce. No wonder they are simultaneously massively egotistical but completely crap at delivering anything. God knows how a knuckle-dragging bog-standard comprehensive troglodyte like me ever became a Chartered Accountant. Still I guess it explains why I'm such a unkind, evil, indecent bastard hooked on class A drugs. Mm kindness, self knowledge, human decency.. These are alas values that often seemed lacking to one extent or another in those I've known from a privately educated background especially self knowledge or self awareness if you like. What private schools provide mainly is instruction in confidence and belief that one should be listened to regardless of the merits of what one's saying. The other main thing of value to those who attend them is cachet and networks.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 29, 2023 19:43:34 GMT
What a self-satisfied and deluded bunch of people public schools seem to produce. No wonder they are simultaneously massively egotistical but completely crap at delivering anything. God knows how a knuckle-dragging bog-standard comprehensive troglodyte like me ever became a Chartered Accountant. Still I guess it explains why I'm such a unkind, evil, indecent bastard hooked on class A drugs. Mm kindness, self knowledge, human decency.. These are alas values that often seemed lacking to one extent or another in those I've known from a privately educated background especially self knowledge or self awareness if you like. What private schools provide mainly is instruction in confidence and belief that one should be listened to regardless of the merits of what one's saying. The other main thing of value to those who attend them is cachet and networks. They are not traits obviously exhibited by Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak or Suella Braverman* to name but three. * "She attended ... the fee-paying Heathfield School, Pinner, on a partial scholarship," Wikipedia.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2023 19:52:10 GMT
God knows how a knuckle-dragging bog-standard comprehensive troglodyte like me ever became a Chartered Accountant. Standards obviously dropped since my day !
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Post by mercian on Sept 29, 2023 20:03:02 GMT
... Braverman's (IMO vile) speech on immigration, Sunak rolling back on cliate change measures, anti-EU stuff...it's just not reaching the younger cohort...and if anything, putting them off. Tories, on their current path being in real trouble could well happen sooner than even I anticipated. I also don't see a reversal of this trend in those not yet old enough to vote...hardly scientific, but, from what I am seeing in vox pops, kids of friends etc, the skew to social liberalism appears to be just as strong. Eithor the tories need to change tack or risk being replaced by a new economically centre right party 10-15 year down the line. Two points on that. I agree that it's not exactly good news for the Tories if those figures are true. 1) Youngsters have not known any other government but the Tories if you include the coalition. They might not be so pro-Labour after the latter have been in power for a few years. 2) I'm guessing that the new economically centre-right party would be Labour?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Sept 29, 2023 20:08:08 GMT
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Post by mercian on Sept 29, 2023 20:09:54 GMT
Cant see where aspiration comes into letting your child go to the school chosen for him/her by the local authority. You aspire for something better than ordinary and state schools are ordinary. My child goes to a state school academy that teaches her in two languages, gives international qualifications, has a great international vibe and will allow her easy escape from brexit little England with it's poisonous, private school propagated class structure. My wife wanted to consider private schools especially for secondary. Not in this country, no way was my response. They propagate a culture of entitlement and meanness in a dreary mono cultural, English setting, no matter how many sports pitches or minibuses they may have. Where she is now is international and enriching. You are aware that you can put schools in order of preference and you don't just get assigned to the nearest one by default unless you want to? I take it that you didn't go to public school, or if you did it was a very bad one. Even in the 1960s my school taught all the major world religions in RE (albeit by an Anglican vicar!) and we had a few non-English pupils. When I go past it now at school leaving time, the majority of boys are of Asian descent. I think you're relying on prejudice.
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Post by Rafwan on Sept 29, 2023 20:26:24 GMT
mercian“ the majority of boys are of Asian descent” Don’t tempt me please, mercy1, don’t tempt me!!!
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