Danny
Member
Posts: 9,608
|
Post by Danny on Sept 29, 2023 9:50:22 GMT
Both Dan Hodges and Patrick Flynn on the case now Maybe he noticed that she doesnt think people like him should be PM?
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,608
|
Post by Danny on Sept 29, 2023 9:52:12 GMT
Graham I think I sense where you may be going wrong with your political outlook. You keep labelling, demonising and pigeon-holing those who don't conform to your way of looking at the world. Hence your ludicrous references to Auschwitz to describe anything right wing. This seems to include centrists and social democrats too. Don't you recognise that it's perfectly legitimate to hold non-socialist views and to do so isn't remotely evil, even if you may disagree with them? There may well be very decent Tory politicians and voters too. From my experience, most of them are in fact. I disagree with them but I. don't dislike them. Actually, I like quite a few of them. You need to leave your good v evil political pantomime world behind When did I mention Auschwitz? Moreover, I have never suggested that voters all have to be Socialists - I am not even on the extreme Left myself!
Maybe Braverman should go just that little step further and argue we should adopt the Nazi solution to all immigrants or descendants of same who arrived in the Uk in the last 100 years?
|
|
|
Post by wb61 on Sept 29, 2023 9:52:29 GMT
Wasn't Arbeit Macht Frei the words above the entrance at Auschwitz? Whenever I use the term , I have in mind what happened at the outset of that reign of terror. “When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’ ’The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’ Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass
|
|
|
Post by thylacine on Sept 29, 2023 9:55:41 GMT
A nice example of 'tolerance' and 'liberalism' - NOT How would you react if someone said X were 'a lower form of life' where X could be a gender/sexuality, religion, ethnicity, age, etc? Hey, its politicians he is talking about! [/quote] And wasn't it National Treasure Anne Widdecombe who described her glorious leader as "having something of the night about him"? 😂
|
|
|
Post by wb61 on Sept 29, 2023 10:00:10 GMT
My wife is in London, this is John Lewis. Christmas is not that close Argghhh!!!!
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,608
|
Post by Danny on Sept 29, 2023 10:01:05 GMT
Hey, its politicians he is talking about! And wasn't it National Treasure Anne Widdecombe who described her glorious leader as "having something of the night about him"? 😂 Are you thinking he bit Braverman and that explains her behaviour now?
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,106
|
Post by steve on Sept 29, 2023 10:02:22 GMT
|
|
|
Post by thylacine on Sept 29, 2023 10:04:33 GMT
View AttachmentMy wife is in London, this is John Lewis. Christmas is not that close Argghhh!!!! Xmas baubles have been out for at least a month in Essex!
|
|
|
Post by thylacine on Sept 29, 2023 10:06:11 GMT
And wasn't it National Treasure Anne Widdecombe who described her glorious leader as "having something of the night about him"? 😂 Are you thinking he bit Braverman and that explains her behaviour now? Well it might explain the sulphur and brimstone? 😂
|
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Sept 29, 2023 10:09:19 GMT
I may be the only person on the forum to predict the next election to be much closer than people think and the Conservatives to just get over the line. I see that you registered here in Dec. 2021. Your first post was in July this year when you posted a UNS forecast of 176 Tory seat losses and said "I think the support for Labour will reduce closer to an election." There hasn't really been such a reduction since then. What is the basis of your sustained optimism for this Government's electoral prospects ? Well none of us have a time machine but I'll repost my 2c, happy to accept the 'timing' has been a bit off and that it is merely a PLAUSIBLE scenario. Current polling roughly: LAB 44 CON 28 RUK 6 Depending on tactical voting that could be close to a 200 seat majority for LAB, CON on just 140ish seats I'll split the next bit into three sections although they do overlap to some extent. 1/ What CON need to do: - deliver, deliver, deliver (on economy, NHS waiting lists and immigration - 'likely CON' most important issues) - which COULD see CON VI increase via 4% from RUK 'coming home', a further 4% from 'hero voters' who have currently 'defected' to LAB (which is worth double bubble) and a further 4% from WNV/DK = CON could get to 40% in GE'242/ What is outside of CON's control but might 'turn' by GE'24 - Global inflation headwind becomes a tailwind, BoE start cutting rates into GE'24. Food prices, energy prices, etc drop (or at least go up by a lot less than wages) - Influences #1. As we see in other polities the 'incumbents' are generally not doing well in polling (eg Germany) 3/ ABCON parties 'help' CON out - Folks start to see Starmer as the 'liar, liar, pants on fire' that the LW-twitterverse point out. He's seen as 'CONtinuity CON' by a chunk of LAB'19 and merely offers 'inexperienced incompetence' (eg the mess they've made of the private school policy) versus 'experienced incompetence'. LAB VI drops from 4% from CON'19 'going home' and a further 4% from higher WNV/DK - LDEM/Green 'differentiate' themselves and pull a further 4% from LAB (and reverse some historic tactical voting at a seat specific level) = LAB might drop to 32% NB Above is not a prediction. I appreciate that is 'everything coming right' on the night to see CON squeak an OM. However between current polling and the above highly unlikely but not impossible scenario then we will IMO likely see a substantial narrowing of LAB's lead and maybe enough to create a messy hung parliament that needs a 'do over' GE that CON might then win. OR #3 in above takes LAB's first term to become clear to voters and CON win GE'29 (which is IMO worth a bet if someone will give you better than 'evens' on it )
PS I've simplified the maths and lumped every component as a 4% for purposes of illustration. I didn't 'forget' Scotland but it is not that relevant to CON (ie LAB or SNP are still ABCON). It is plausible that CON as best placed ABSNP in many Scottish seats, keep all their Scottish seats, possibly gain a few but compared to the potential changes in England then Scottish seats outcome is irrelevant.
PPS I posted R&W polling on what gen.pub thinks the outcome will be and I hope UKPR2 treat t7g4 with some respect. He/she/they are entitled their opinion and as per a lot of other people on UKPR2 don't have to explain it in detail - although I hope he/she/they do and not put off by the ABCON trolling that is clearly 'tolerated' on this site.
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,034
Member is Online
|
Post by oldnat on Sept 29, 2023 10:15:32 GMT
I generally find Owen Jones a bit difficult (perhaps too earnest and rigid) however his article today is about Braverman and that wing of the Conservatives defining "Britishness" the article is worth a read in full but I like this quote in particular: i have no idea how Braverman, as a foreigner herself, was ever allowed to become an MP. She must agree with that herself. How many generations does a family have to be citizens of a state, in order to qualify as being no longer a foreigner?
You appear to be sanctifying your idiosyncratic version of national identity - and in a very nasty way.
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,074
|
Post by domjg on Sept 29, 2023 10:19:33 GMT
View AttachmentMy wife is in London, this is John Lewis. Christmas is not that close Argghhh!!!! Xmas baubles have been out for at least a month in Essex! I went to a Garden centre cafe with my family last weekend and there was a bloody Christmas tree in the corner! People were still wearing shirt sleeves and it was a warm day. Infuriating. Who wants to be reminded of Christmas when you're trying to convince yourself it's still summer?!
|
|
|
Post by graham on Sept 29, 2023 10:21:47 GMT
Even if Sunak manages the swingback of circa 9% achieved by Labour in 12/13 months running up to the June 1970 GE, the Tories would only end up circa 3% ahead. That would still be a pro-Labour swing of 4.3% implying circa 45 Labour gains. In addition, the LDs would surely pick up at least a handful at Tory expense with the the Tories unlikely to exceed 315 seats as a best possible outcome. Even another deal with the DUP might not suffice.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,106
|
Post by steve on Sept 29, 2023 10:26:33 GMT
Sunakered the drivers friend
"I think imposing a blanket 20 mile-an-hour speed limit on areas is absolutely not right. It doesn’t reflect people’s priorities.
People are dependent on their cars for their day-to-day journeys and these kind of blanket bans aren’t the right proportionate approach."
What precisely is being banned, drivers can still drive it's just they need to keep their speed to an appropriate level in a residential zone.
Needless to say the right wing media will be lapping it up.
Putting children and pedestrians first bloody tofu eating wokeism namby pambiness.
Britain for the motorist fuck everyone else. Being run over by a lunatic at 70 miles an hour in the driveway was what made brexitania what it is today.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,106
|
Post by steve on Sept 29, 2023 10:28:39 GMT
"Xmas baubles have been out for at least a month in Essex!"
Was there Christmas wine as well " I wanna go to lakeside! "
|
|
|
Post by jib on Sept 29, 2023 10:41:29 GMT
|
|
|
Post by alec on Sept 29, 2023 10:49:55 GMT
Worth noting that the full report of the recent care home pirola outbreak report is now published, and it has some interesting points. We knew about the attack rate (c85%) but interestingly, this was among a group vaccinated just 16 weeks previously. So it gives some insight into what we can expect in terms of vaccine efficacy against infection (not much at all).
The initial reports were that just one from 31 needed hopsitalisation, but it actually turns out that 8 others needed urgent medical attention, including 4 that needed oxygen, but these treatments were given in the care home.
No deaths have been listed as arising from the outbreak, but 2 of the infected individuals died within 16 days of infection. Under the old system, these would be classified as covid related deaths, giving a fatality rate of 6% in a recently vaccinated (but vulnerable) cohort. However, the two deaths were not felt to be related to the infection, so now aren't counted as such. Given the proven increase in all cause mortality risk post covid, I do wonder how long this distinction is going to stand.
So overall, not so good. Vaccination (and most likely recent infection) give little protection against pirola infection, and for vulnerable groups, it seems to be quite severe as well.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,106
|
Post by steve on Sept 29, 2023 10:57:33 GMT
jib I think the issue raised wasn't actually that there was insufficient space but because of the financial crisis facing millions they simply can't afford to replace beds and bedding. I should also point out that while the bedroom tax was introduced 10 years ago under the coalition government it has been retained by the Tories in the eight years after the coalition finished. As it's an under occupancy supplement I don't actually see how it's relevant in overcrowded conditions.
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 5,913
|
Post by neilj on Sept 29, 2023 11:02:59 GMT
New techne Two most recent polls showing a 21% and 18% lead But we should remember Peter Kellners wise words 'Calm down, headline writers! 30 polls in past month all agree: Labour on 44% +/- 3; Conservative 26% +/- 3. Watch the signal; ignore the noise.'
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 5,980
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 29, 2023 11:22:32 GMT
Re: Bedroom tax - so is it current LD policy to scrap the Bedroom tax? Did a quick search, couldn’t find anything. Saw summat about Reeves in July suggesting Labour might not repeal it? If anyone has more on that…
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,106
|
Post by steve on Sept 29, 2023 11:35:12 GMT
If I recall correctly when still in coalition a number of liberal democrats didn't support it in the first place.
The 2015 manifesto called for the removal of the tax as did the 2017 and 2019 manifestos.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 5,980
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 29, 2023 11:48:03 GMT
If I recall correctly when still in coalition a number of liberal democrats didn't support it in the first place. The 2015 manifesto called for the removal of the tax as did the 2017 and 2019 manifestos. So it did, thanks Steve! (Just took a look and it also said about introducing positive incentives to downsize too)
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 5,913
|
Post by neilj on Sept 29, 2023 12:03:57 GMT
Another nail in the tories coffin Some on the left don't like Starmer, but he's taking the central ground and Sunak with his moving even further to the right is losing it
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 5,913
|
Post by neilj on Sept 29, 2023 12:07:19 GMT
Sunak saying aspirational parents want to send their children to private schools is implying those who can't are not aspirational for their children. In effect that 94% of parents don't care for their children's future Really can't see that playing well, seems an obvious misstep and one Starmer will jump on
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,034
Member is Online
|
Post by oldnat on Sept 29, 2023 12:35:27 GMT
jib I think the issue raised wasn't actually that there was insufficient space but because of the financial crisis facing millions they simply can't afford to replace beds and bedding. I should also point out that while the bedroom tax was introduced 10 years ago under the coalition government it has been retained by the Tories in the eight years after the coalition finished. As it's an under occupancy supplement I don't actually see how it's relevant in overcrowded conditions. Reducing the poverty in households with children should be a priority for any party in any Parliament. The traumas caused by childhood poverty are known to have damaging life-long consequences for health, brain development and learning, amongst other things
When mention is made of the need for "structural investment", investment in children's futures should be at the top of the list.
I mentioned the Scottish Child Payment last night. Every party (including the Tories - though they would have delayed the increase) at Holyrood support it. All the Holyrood parties (except the Tories) support compensating those who are penalised by the bedroom tax.
Obviously, parties in England and Wales can have different policy objectives to their Scottish branches.
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,034
Member is Online
|
Post by oldnat on Sept 29, 2023 12:46:52 GMT
Anent the Sycamore Gap
Seems unlikely that this was done by a lad on his own. They should be looking for Tree Fellers. (I'll get my coat)
|
|
|
Post by EmCat on Sept 29, 2023 12:50:46 GMT
View AttachmentMy wife is in London, this is John Lewis. Christmas is not that close Argghhh!!!! www.postoffice.co.uk/last-posting-datesFor Royal Mail International Economy, the last posting dates for Christmas are really close: "All non-European destinations (except South Africa, Canada, Middle and Far East, USA) Monday 2 October Middle and Far East, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Africa Friday 13 October" It's harder to buy those Christmas presents for far off friends and relatives if there is no wrapping paper
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Sept 29, 2023 13:05:29 GMT
46 million on Facebook suggests that the parties are missing a trick by under-concentrating on social media. That's certainly a lot. Not everyone pays much attention though. I have had both a X/Twitter and a Facebook/meta account for years. I have never posted anything on Twitter and only usually look if someone posts a link to it from here. I log in to Facebook perhaps once a year and haven't posted anything for years. Naturally all notifications are switched off. I expect I'm not the only one 'using' these platforms like that, perhaps leading politicians to overestimate the effect of messages there. That's all I'm saying. They shouldn't assume that a good Facebook/Twitter campaign is 'job done'.
|
|
|
Post by athena on Sept 29, 2023 13:11:47 GMT
I've been listening to Inside Science (R4) and was somewhat surprised to hear a guest, Ian Dunt, say that not only does the UK have a strong consensus on the need for climate action, it is in fact older people who are most likely to be concerned about climate change. So I checked, and this is indeed what the large government surveys consistently show. The latest Dept for Energy Security and Net Zero attitude survey says (my bold): Overall concern about climate change was higher for women (85%, compared with 80% of men) and people educated to degree level (88%, compared with 81% of those with other qualifications and 76% of people with no qualifications). By age, the proportion of those ‘very concerned’ about climate change was relatively higher among those aged over 65 (47%) and lower among those aged 25 to 34 (32%), with those in other age groups in line with the total for the UK. The proportion who said they were very concerned about climate change was higher in rural areas (44%) compared with urban areas (38%). By geography, the proportion who said they were very concerned about climate change was relatively higher in London (45%) and the South West (48%), and lower in the North East (30%), the West Midlands (34%) and Wales (35%). The age effect isn't huge, but like the rural-urban difference, it makes Sunak's decision to bet on net zero scepticism/Micawberism look even stranger. Dunt did hint at a possible reason, he said (I'm paraphrasing) that listeners might be surprised by how 'vibes-based' Westminster is, most of the time. Sunak spends most of his time in a silo, where he mostly hears the opinions of Tory MPs, who are more sceptical than the general population about the need for climate action and much more likely to deny that harmful climate change is happening. In other words, we have a PM who pays negligible attention to opinion outside his own parliamentary party, which is wildly out of step with the country.
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Sept 29, 2023 13:13:34 GMT
I can see that social media is important, but I wonder if there are any figures on how many UK people actually use these various platforms? It's obviously very easy to bash messages out on 'X' or whatever but does everyone use social media? I know that it's likely to be more common in younger age groups but how many in the 50-64 age group for instance? Are parties missing a trick by over-concentrating on social media? A while back colin pointed me to the most recent Ofcom survey of news consumption. First document in the table is the UK-wide data. It's fairly high-level stuff, but gives a rough idea of the mix of sources used by different age groups and how they are perceived. Thank you. Very interesting. Some fascinating nuggets. For instance radio scores higher than social media for all ages > 45, and TV for all >35, which backs up my hunch.
|
|