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Post by t7g4 on Sept 28, 2023 22:28:15 GMT
I may be the only person on the forum to predict the next election to be much closer than people think and the Conservatives to just get over the line. I'm not saying you're wrong, but, what do you see in the past 13 years that makes you think the Tories will win? What actually works after they've had there grifting hands on it? Where is life better for most people? Pretty sure if I'm correct if the Tories won from here it would break all polling records? I may well be wrong and yes it would be breaking records and i could be completely off. I don’t see things being better under Labour I’m afraid. |
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Post by mercian on Sept 28, 2023 22:30:13 GMT
No, besides being in no way comparable, they weren't said on an alleged news channel subject to Ofcom regulations Indeed. i found something amusing in PJ’s comments, which, following colin ’s intervention, I realised may have been informed by an unfortunate stereotype of women. I may be completely alone in this. Either way, I regret it and will try to be more alert to this in future. The thought police are ever watchful. |
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Post by t7g4 on Sept 28, 2023 22:33:03 GMT
I may be the only person on the forum to predict the next election to be much closer than people think and the Conservatives to just get over the line. I think you're almost the only person in the country at the moment but pray tell, what is your reasoning? Welcome btw, don't think we've seen you before. I personally see how Khan is running London; Labour in Wales to see how ineffective they are at in running their areas. The SNP/Greens have shown that left wing governments aren’t effective either. I’m not saying I’m right at what I’m writing and I hope I cause no offence. |
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Post by mercian on Sept 28, 2023 22:33:40 GMT
Easily - you have misconstrued my point entirely. It was not a comment on the value of the opinions of any of the BBC presenters on that list. Rather I was seeking to highlight the fundamentally ridiculous nature of banning a whole bunch of people who are not known for being political from commenting on politics. As far as I am aware only Lord Sugar and Gary Lineker have any history of political remarks. If Tess Daly or Gregg Wallace have any views on HS2 I think they should be allowed the same right as anyone else to share them. I find it extraordinary that anyone could see any commonality between the comments unless perhaps they don't fully appreciate Fox's comments for how completely vile they were. My mother, when being provocative, likes to tell me she watches GB news. I intend to confront her with the idea that she, a supposed Christian, is patronising a channel that clearly allows and condones this kind of attitude and what she thinks my late father would have thought of that. Your family gatherings must be a bundle of fun. 🤣 |
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Post by graham on Sept 28, 2023 22:35:22 GMT
I'm not saying you're wrong, but, what do you see in the past 13 years that makes you think the Tories will win? What actually works after they've had there grifting hands on it? Where is life better for most people? Pretty sure if I'm correct if the Tories won from here it would break all polling records? I may well be wrong and yes it would be breaking records and i could be completely off. I don’t see things being better under Labour I’m afraid. Even though Labour is so committed to continuing Tory policies? |
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Post by graham on Sept 28, 2023 22:37:02 GMT
I do see the Tories as'a lower form of life' - but alas labour appears to be little better.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Sept 28, 2023 22:38:52 GMT
I think you're almost the only person in the country at the moment but pray tell, what is your reasoning? Welcome btw, don't think we've seen you before. I personally see how Khan is running London; Labour in Wales to see how ineffective they are at in running their areas. The SNP/Greens have shown that left wing governments aren’t effective either. I’m not saying I’m right at what I’m writing and I hope I cause no offence. That's funny as the populaces of both London and Wales appear to be overwhelming supportive of their Labour led devolved administrations (which are of course largely dependent on central government funding). |
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Post by graham on Sept 28, 2023 22:41:27 GMT
I personally see how Khan is running London; Labour in Wales to see how ineffective they are at in running their areas. The SNP/Greens have shown that left wing governments aren’t effective either. I’m not saying I’m right at what I’m writing and I hope I cause no offence. That's funny as the populaces of both London and Wales appear to be overwhelming supportive of their Labour led devolved administrations (which are of course largely dependent on central government funding). In Wales turnout at Assembly Elections is below 50% - often well below! |
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Post by mercian on Sept 28, 2023 22:42:37 GMT
At times I find the posts of some contributors here totally perplexing. Is there something I'm not getting? How on earth can a remark about Tess Daly being able to express a view on HS2 be seen as comparable to the deeply offensive, mysogenistic and personal remarks made by Laurence Fox? Possibly such an HS2 remark aimed at her husband (also listed as barred from comment) may have had more unfortunate resonance. Colin sometimes pounces to quickly in his eagerness to prove the rest of us hypocrites and then his remarks just look a tad foolish. What a lot of fuss about nothing. Of course Fox's remarks were offensive and misogynistic. Tess Daly does a perfectly good job presenting light entertainment shows, but perhaps because that's her job she doesn't come across as particularly bright (although of course she may well be in real life). Hence the original remark could be seen as patronising and misogynistic and therefore similar in type if not degree to Fox's remarks. Anyway I'm sure it wasn't meant that way but I'm just trying to show why it could be misconstrued. |
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Post by mercian on Sept 28, 2023 22:43:57 GMT
Fox’s remarks were loathsome beyond measure, but does colin not have a tiny bit of a point? Had John Torode’s name been substituted for Tess Daly, I am not sure PJ’s jest would have had quite the same zing. This may of course just be a reflection on me. Actually, I almost put Gregg Wallace and bloody well wish I had. It never occurred to me that anyone would construe it in that manner. It was, as crossbat11 spotted, a dig at the BBC's hypersensitivity to government criticism and nothing to do with any of the presenters. It's a bit of a bummer when people misconstrue what you say and all pile in, isn't it? |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Sept 28, 2023 22:45:32 GMT
I was only six then, I misremembered  Blinking youngsters. This is what's wrong with the world. People under 70 being allowed to have an opinion. 😁 |
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Post by mercian on Sept 28, 2023 22:47:21 GMT
These figures from James E are a reminder that class based politics is well and truly dead. ABC1 Lab 47% (+14) Con 23% (-20) Con2019 ret 54% C2DE Lab 41% (+8) Con 28% (-20) Con2019 Ret 58% Is it? I think those figures show that the posh Labour people are crushing the poor working-class Tories under their well-heeled jackboots. 🤣 |
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Post by ptarmigan on Sept 28, 2023 22:47:37 GMT
"Sunak expected to limit powers of councils in England to curb car use Exclusive: Potential plan to restrict measures such as 20mph speed limits" At around 30mph a road traffic collision with a pedestrian is like being hit by a 3.5 tonne elephant or a fall from the third floor. Around 50% of children hit by a vehicle at 30mph die. At 20 mph the figure is less than 5% To win votes our prime minister is going to kill children. Think about that and then vote these fuckers out. Seems a bit barmy that, since narrowly getting over the line in Uxbridge & S Ruislip (a seat they've always held in it's present incarnation, nearly always held in its former guise), they've leaned so heavily into this pro-car, anti-green narrative. Scrapping green policies (some of which were non-existent anyway), waffling on about potholes and car users when asked about HS2, this nonsense... it's all incredibly cynical. I suppose it's no real surprise - Tory ideology precludes them from offering any effective solutions to the actual problems that blight this country, so they'll grasp at anything, particularly if it can be leveraged as a 'culture war' issue - but it does feel like they've basically entirely abandoned any pretence of being a serious party of government. |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Sept 28, 2023 22:52:48 GMT
I may be the only person on the forum to predict the next election to be much closer than people think and the Conservatives to just get over the line. What do you base that on? Love your user name by the way. Were you in Star Wars. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2023 22:53:27 GMT
I think you're almost the only person in the country at the moment but pray tell, what is your reasoning? Welcome btw, don't think we've seen you before. I personally see how Khan is running London; Labour in Wales to see how ineffective they are at in running their areas. The SNP/Greens have shown that left wing governments aren’t effective either. I’m not saying I’m right at what I’m writing and I hope I cause no offence. I don't think you'll cause much offence, possibly some surprise, though, given current polling and, indeed, for the last year or so. Apart from your stated view that various left wing administrations aren't up to scratch, perhaps you could elucidate on why you think CON will prevail at the next GE bearing in mind what the polls presently suggest. |
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Post by EmCat on Sept 28, 2023 22:58:57 GMT
I may be the only person on the forum to predict the next election to be much closer than people think and the Conservatives to just get over the line. I think you're almost the only person in the country at the moment but pray tell, what is your reasoning? Welcome btw, don't think we've seen you before. Looking at the YouGov cross-breaks posted earlier (I know, unreliable because of small samples and so forth, but it will do for the approximations), and it is likely that they will do some very targeted advertising / messaging. For some of the cross-breaks, they may trail Labour, but by enticing some of the Will Not Vote cohort, as well as some ReformUK, and also some of the Don't Know, then it could become far closer in the following areas: Rest of South (38% of English seats) - currently Con: 20; Lab: 26; Ref: 6; WNV: 12; DK: 19 = possible to overturn the current -6% position Midlands (19% of Eng seats) - currently Con: 15; Lab: 27; Ref: 6; WNV: 17; DK: 20 = potentially possible to overturn the -12% position North is currently -22%, so not realistic to close the gap significantly London is currently -31% so even more unlikely to close the gap Scotland, -8% against Lab, -9% against SNP becomes another possible: Con: 12; Lab: 20; SNP: 21; WNV: 12; DK: 17. This would be harder simply because the message would have to attract DK/WNV without them going to either SNP or Lab, which could become two different messages Wales, -22%, another in the not realistic category However, the age cross-breaks show that only in the 50-64 group would overturning a 9% deficit be remotely possible (65+ are already assured, while 18-24, with a -43% is in the realms of the impossible; 25-39 at only -28% is also in far fetched territory) Hence, finding that magic bullet that will get 50-64 year old in the Midlands and South of England to either make up their minds, or actually change their previous habits and turn up and vote, and suddenly it is indeed much closer than it might appear. When it comes to social media (the prime mechanism for ultra-targeted messaging, as Cambridge Analytics demonstrated), Facebook these days is seen as the one that older folk use, while X/Twitter, with an apparent relaxation of posting standards ostensibly in the name of free speech, is another platform ripe to exploit delivering the message to those "missing" voter blocs. That makes the targeting easier, as it means not having to dip into those with a younger demographic (eg: TikTok or Instagram), as those are already lost causes. |
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Post by James E on Sept 28, 2023 23:01:25 GMT
These figures from James E are a reminder that class based politics is well and truly dead. ABC1 Lab 47% (+14) Con 23% (-20) Con2019 ret 54% C2DE Lab 41% (+8) Con 28% (-20) Con2019 Ret 58% Is it? I think those figures show that the posh Labour people are crushing the poor working-class Tories under their well-healed jackboots. 🤣 Social Class cross-breaks and analysis vary massively from one pollster to another. Most pollsters other than YouGov show Labour faring better with C2DE voters - for instance the Deltapoll linked below is Con 33, Lab 40 wih ABC1s, and Con 24, Lab 55 with C2DEs. deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Deltapoll-230829_trackers.pdfFor the purposes of my own analysis above, I'm comparing YouGov's own 2019 election analysis with their current polls. Incidentally, where YouGov, and other pollsters, divide voters up into 4 social groups (AB, C1, C2, DE), the Conservatives' strongest demographic is with the C2s, and Labour's strongest the C1s. |
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Post by t7g4 on Sept 28, 2023 23:01:59 GMT
I personally see how Khan is running London; Labour in Wales to see how ineffective they are at in running their areas. The SNP/Greens have shown that left wing governments aren’t effective either. I’m not saying I’m right at what I’m writing and I hope I cause no offence. That's funny as the populaces of both London and Wales appear to be overwhelming supportive of their Labour led devolved administrations (which are of course largely dependent on central government funding). Khans war on motorists; most of which are working class; knife-crime being out of control (just to name a few) are some of the reasons. Slough council; Croydon council being bankrupt under their control. Wales is in decline thanks to 24 years of Labour government. The NHS has been declining for years under their watch. The disastrous handling of the M4 (again just to name a few reasons). You can argue that the electorate is too loyal to Labour in their Welsh and London heartland regardless of their poor handling. |
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Post by EmCat on Sept 28, 2023 23:07:04 GMT
These figures from James E are a reminder that class based politics is well and truly dead. Is it? I think those figures show that the posh Labour people are crushing the poor working-class Tories under their well-healed jackboots. 🤣 Well it wouldn't do at all to have jackboots that had injuries  |
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Post by t7g4 on Sept 28, 2023 23:07:53 GMT
I may well be wrong and yes it would be breaking records and i could be completely off. I don’t see things being better under Labour I’m afraid. Even though Labour is so committed to continuing Tory policies? Are Labour offering anything new to the electorate then? |
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Post by graham on Sept 28, 2023 23:10:17 GMT
That's funny as the populaces of both London and Wales appear to be overwhelming supportive of their Labour led devolved administrations (which are of course largely dependent on central government funding). Khans war on motorists; most of which are working class; knife-crime being out of control (just to name a few) are some of the reasons. Slough council; Croydon council being bankrupt under their control. Wales is in decline thanks to 24 years of Labour government. The NHS has been declining for years under their watch. The disastrous handling of the M4 (again just to name a few reasons). You can argue that the electorate is too loyal to Labour in their Welsh and London heartland regardless of their poor handling. That's very naive. I strongly oppose Devolution and would welcome the end of the Welsh Assembly but Whitehall controls the purse strings in Wales . |
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Post by mercian on Sept 28, 2023 23:11:14 GMT
All on the board want Labour to win but we can't be complacent. I think you might have miscounted. |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Sept 28, 2023 23:13:52 GMT
"Sunak expected to limit powers of councils in England to curb car use Exclusive: Potential plan to restrict measures such as 20mph speed limits" Seems a bit barmy that, since narrowly getting over the line in Uxbridge & S Ruislip (a seat they've always held in it's present incarnation, nearly always held in its former guise), they've leaned so heavily into this pro-car, anti-green narrative. Scrapping green policies (some of which were non-existent anyway), waffling on about potholes and car users when asked about HS2, this nonsense... it's all incredibly cynical. I suppose it's no real surprise - Tory ideology precludes them from offering any effective solutions to the actual problems that blight this country, so they'll grasp at anything, particularly if it can be leveraged as a 'culture war' issue - but it does feel like they've basically entirely abandoned any pretence of being a serious party of government.
For example, in Scotland, the "National Strategy for 20mph speed limits aims to expand 20mph speed limits across Scotland and ensure all appropriate roads in built-up areas have a safer speed limit of 20mph by 2025."
The Conservative controlled Borders Council has been a leader in piloting, then making permanent, those arrangements.
They said, "Permanent 20mph speed limits to come into effect from 16 January 2023. The clear and obvious safety benefits revealed through the 20mph trial undertaken across the Borders has led to the reduced speed limit being made permanent across the region as of 16 January 2023."
It is actually useful to contrast what actually happens, in contrast to the bombastic crap that comes out of the HQ of every party, when they sense something that might get them a couple of votes. Hence, I don't accept that the actions of elected representatives of a political party must be judged according to an imagined ideology in Westminster (or Holyrood, or Cardiff). |
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Post by graham on Sept 28, 2023 23:14:24 GMT
Even though Labour is so committed to continuing Tory policies? Are Labour offering anything new to the electorate then? Very little - they are almost as evil as the Tories - though less evidence of the latter's Arbeit Macht Frei Wing. Braverman et al would have loyally served the likes of Heinrich Himmler and Reinhard Heydrich. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Sept 28, 2023 23:22:11 GMT
Khans war on motorists; most of which are working class; knife-crime being out of control (just to name a few) are some of the reasons. Slough council; Croydon council being bankrupt under their control. Wales is in decline thanks to 24 years of Labour government. The NHS has been declining for years under their watch. The disastrous handling of the M4 (again just to name a few reasons). You can argue that the electorate is too loyal to Labour in their Welsh and London heartland regardless of their poor handling. That's very naive. I strongly oppose Devolution and would welcome the end of the Welsh Assembly but Whitehall controls the purse strings in Wales . |
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Post by graham on Sept 28, 2023 23:26:04 GMT
That's very naive. I strongly oppose Devolution and would welcome the end of the Welsh Assembly but Whitehall controls the purse strings in Wales . I know what I call it! |
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Post by mercian on Sept 28, 2023 23:29:39 GMT
Well you say that but I note that you don't give any source or definition of what you mean. I specifically mentioned the death penalty, which I think is generally considered to be a right-wing policy. Here's a link yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/topic/Death_Penalty?content=allAlthough there is a majority against it for all murder, specific types have a majority in favour - e.g. terrorist murder, murder of a child and multiple murder. No significant party will even discuss this issue. When all major parties agree on stuff like this, voters get frustrated and when given the chance (as in referenda) will give them all a kicking if they're all on the same side (which they were for Brexit). Yes, it's a real shame isn't it? No party is currently proposing to deport all non native British people (yet). There are just so few political options for the modern fascist about town these days to kill, maim and humiliate by proxy. Must be so frustrating for you.. er them.. You are ridiculous and needlessly offensive. Doesn't the fact that no significant party represent majority views on this concern you at all? There are other subjects too, but let's keep it simple. I'll spell it out as simply as possible. When there is no real discussion and no representation of majority (or even significant minority) views on certain subjects the voting public become frustrated and annoyed. We don't have to look far for an example. For decades there was no disagreement among the major parties about EU membership even though there was always at least a sizeable minority and sometimes a majority wish to leave, according to polls. This led to the rise of UKIP and eventually Brexit. When the major UK-wide parties are virtually indistinguishable voters will look elsewhere. In Scotland they have the SNP. In Wales Plaid to some extent. One subject where the main parties do feel they have to say something is immigration. However nothing ever happens. Not discussing. or just paying lip service to a subject is what could lead to real fascism, as opposed to your propensity to label everyone you disagree with as such. |
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Post by mercian on Sept 28, 2023 23:32:29 GMT
I think you're almost the only person in the country at the moment but pray tell, what is your reasoning? Welcome btw, don't think we've seen you before. I personally see how Khan is running London; Labour in Wales to see how ineffective they are at in running their areas. The SNP/Greens have shown that left wing governments aren’t effective either. I’m not saying I’m right at what I’m writing and I hope I cause no offence. Oh, someone will take offence. They'll be calling you a fascist soon. 🤣 |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Sept 28, 2023 23:33:31 GMT
Your wish has been granted! The Welsh Assembly is no more. There is now a Welsh Parliament (though it also calls itself Senedd Cymru - just to annoy you). I know what I call it! |
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Post by mercian on Sept 28, 2023 23:34:28 GMT
Blinking youngsters. This is what's wrong with the world. People under 70 being allowed to have an opinion. 😁 Nice one! 🤣 |
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