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Post by wb61 on Jul 18, 2023 9:34:43 GMT
Not everybody sees Devolution as an achievement. I have always taken the view that Tam Dalyell was correct - and would like to see it reversed. Blair also cemented in Thatcherism when he had the opportunity to reverse it. He carried on Privatising - including industries he had pledged to keep under public ownership - eg Air Traffic Control - despite having declared 'Our air is not for sale'.
Your wish to end Devolution, as I understand your view, would you impose that against the wishes of the Majority of the populations of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland? |
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Post by graham on Jul 18, 2023 9:41:40 GMT
Ok - let me rephrase that . I say this as someone who utterly detests Johnson for other reasons, but in terms of economic policy he was the most left wing PM since Callaghan - as reflected in his willingness to increase state intervention and to allow Public Borrowing to rise when the national interest required it. If only Blair had done the same with his big majorities! Johnson was rather Heseltinian in his Industrial policy - despite their massive differences on Brexit etc. Nonsense. Johnson had no choice regarding furloughs or the economy would've crashed. The real Johnson was his 'levelling up agenda' where he did sod all as it was obvious bull to con the red wall (along with his 'get brexit done' 'oven ready deal'). also, his group of Tory half-wits are the ones who mostly wanted to take away as much workers rights and protections as possible, whether from union laws to free ports with no workers protections, same with food protections etc. Fishy Rishi is just following on from Johnson. Johnson/Rishi, same old Tories always bullshitting and then denying. They've done the same with he NHS, half destroy it and then say we can't afford it. If they hadn't fecked it over for 10 years (staff pay, keeping hospitals in good order) the NHS would more than likely still be getting plaudits and satisfaction ratings it received in 2010. The fact someone as smart as you fell for this bull is shocking. I disagree. If Thatcher - or Truss - had been in office in 2020/2021 , I believe it to be highly unlikely that they would have allowed the PSBR to rise massively in the way Johnson did. Any Furlough scheme would have been much more modest and limited despite the macroeconomic impact. He also pragmatically was happy to see failing privatised rail services returned to public ownership . Unlikely Thatcher would have done that. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 9:45:57 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w What did you think of Heath? There would be no position for Heath in today's Tory party there have been significantly worse prime minister's, I was too young to vote then but I would probably have voted for Wilson in 1974, incidentally 74 shows the absurdity of fptp with around 35% of the vote both the Tories and Labour secured around 300 seats each while the liberals with around half the other two parties votes got 13. Yeah, Heath’s an interesting case: from a left-wing perspective he’s a bit of disaster, introducing what became Thatcherism, introducing deregulation of banking resulting quickly in economic problems and beginning the assault on the unions, turning an oil crisis into a full-blown energy crisis, but to some of the right in Labour there can be a certain fondness because they tend to agree with some of that economics and he took us into the EEC. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 18, 2023 9:53:06 GMT
colinAll countries can solve the " small boat " irregular migration route issues. In the UK rather than gaslighting the population with almost certainly illegal and irrelevant plans to "solve the people smuggling crisis" by the forcible rendition of a tiny fraction of those using the services of people smugglers. Process the asylum claims promptly and provided safe methods of travel into the U.K. Even those who buy in to the xenophobia of the regime if they had any functional brain cells could work out that the vast majority of those who have fled atrocious circumstances from regime's far worse and more draconian than team Sunakered will not be put off by fantasy threats. You solve the people smuggling crisis by removing their business model , you do that not by threatening their clients but providing safe methods to either enter the UK or apply safely for asylum outside of the U.K. and then travel by conventional methods. Those who still use small boats to enter the UK are then far more likely to have nefarious purposes and can be dealt with accordingly.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 18, 2023 9:57:40 GMT
New Delta poll, recent polls have shown a slight narrowing, so this may be an outlier
🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead is twenty-four percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 24% (-4)
Lab 48% (+2)
Lib Dem 11% (+2)
Other 17% (-1)
Fieldwork: 14th - 17th July 2023
Sample: 1,000 GB adults
(Changes from 7th-10th July 2023)
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Post by wb61 on Jul 18, 2023 10:02:48 GMT
Rating PM's since WWII based on the harm they did
Atlee, Wilson, Brown, Blair, Douglas Hume, Macmillan, Major, Heath, May, Eden then tied in eleventh place Cameron & Johnson,Thatcher, Truss I have to admit it was a toss up amongst these last four ( I prefer to hold judgment on Sunak until his premiership is over)
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 18, 2023 10:04:21 GMT
Brexitanian Tory loons complaining that their own lunatic brexitanian regime isn't sufficiently brexitanian. Two bald imbeciles arguing over a comb. youtu.be/rJKIrTZxpTg |
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Post by moby on Jul 18, 2023 10:07:30 GMT
Based, in my view, far too much on mistaking electoral positioning for an inviolable prescription for governing. Most people would accept that Labour can't do everything, but I think it goes beyond electoral positioning and not scaring Tory horses when Labour positions themselves as "there's no money left" and there's nothing we can do until we grow the economy. That's a Thatcherite positioning of there is no alternative. It's not even Blair's third way. While you could argue that Blair was justified in largely keeping to Tory tax plans in 1997, because that was where the country was at the time, there seems little justification for it now. 5% on top earners has been dropped, CGT equalised with Income Tax has been dropped. Other taxation plans, including on Corporation Tax, have been dropped. So what Labour has bought into is that you cannot grow an economy by raising taxes and it can only be done by "growth" but without any agenda to achieve a growth that, on a planet with finite resources, has eluded most of the western world for the last 15 years. You can grow an economy with tax rises that are used for investment but Labour appears to have blocked this off in their positioning so are reliant on any post Covid and Ukraine bounce back. I think the 2008 crash, Covid and Ukraine were significant economic events that could be seen as unusual, but they are also a symptom that world economies are so unstable they are no longer able to recover quickly from these type of events and this is largely down to the super rich hoarding too much of the wealth and Westerm worlds unable to be competitive with cheaper labour in the Far East and elsewhere. With the climate emergency now in full swing tweaking a Thatcherite solution which has been proved to have failed is not going to fix things one little bit. You say anything is better than the Tories, I would say lets get the meaningful alternatives up and running now rather than wasting 5 years with a softer version of the same. Some well positioned 2nd places for the Greens starting to appear and offering an alternative would, in my humble opinion, be more worthwhile than shifting chairs on the Titanic. In some ways I'm arguing against something I've known to be true all my life that there are only two alternatives to government- Tory or Labour, but when I look at how the western world and the country is now, it feels like last days of the Roman empire that needs a radical reset. Ironically Greens getting 7% vote share and a couple of seats is unlikely to prevent a Labour government as opinion polling stands at present. LD took advantage of this in 1997. Anyway I don't expect Green to make much progress next year and could even lose Brighton, so it seems odds on now that we will both be finding out what a Starmer government looks like and maybe 5 years later we'll be of a similar mind- obviously it will be you saying "you were right all along Shevii and I apologise profusely to all the mean things I said to you" :-) Your expectations are unrealistic in the present climate imo. There is no consensus in the country or even within Labour; people seem to want a change but there is little consensus regarding taxes and growth. The mood is not optimistic, it is cynical. Something you haven't mentioned is the international markets and the potential reaction they will have to a new Labour Govmt. At the end of December 2022, UK General government gross debt was £2,516.0 billion, or 101.0% Gross domestic product. www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/21/uk-government-debt-above-100-per-cent-of-gdp-first-time-since-1961#:~:text=The%20UK's%20total%20government%20debt,doubled%2C%20according%20to%20official%20figures. There is little room for manoeuvre and getting 'meaningful alternatives' up and running needs to reflect this. Before you are trusted to do anything radical, you have to demonstrate competence. This is the economic context in which Starmer if elected will be working in:- www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151 |
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Post by neilj on Jul 18, 2023 10:07:54 GMT
Rating PM's since WWII based on the harm they did Atlee, Wilson, Brown, Blair, Douglas Hume, Macmillan, Major, Heath, May, Eden then tied in eleventh place Cameron & Johnson,Thatcher, Truss I have to admit it was a toss up amongst these last four ( I prefer to hold judgment on Sunak until his premiership is over) I assume that list is in order of least harm to most harm? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 18, 2023 10:08:40 GMT
Here's a challenge back. Here's my ranking of every Conservative and Labour leader since Heath and Wilson in order of preference and I have put every Labour leader above every Tory. Would you do the same? Miliband (my politics), Callaghan (underrated),Smith (might have been very good given the chance), Brown (unlucky), Wilson (over-rated as a PM, good at winning elections), Blair (would have been higher but for Iraq), Kinnock, Corbyn, Starmer, Foot// Major, Hague, Heath, May, Cameron, Howard, Sunak, Thatcher, Duncan Smith, Johnson, Truss. Ah-the leftie's favourite Tory leader -The Grocer -gets demoted by you . Still -your timeline lets you off the hook with the all time favourite of the left -The 1st Earl of Stockton.  I've said before I'm not a Heath fan. He is only as high as he is because all the ones below him are either incompetent, had dreadful policies or both. Macmillan on the other hand ... |
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Post by graham on Jul 18, 2023 10:09:56 GMT
Shame that the Lords caved in last night. What is the point in having the delaying power provided by the Parliament Act if the Second Chamber fails to use it? The legislation concerned was not in the 2019 Tory Manifesto and ,therefore, is not covered by the Salisbury convention.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 10:10:38 GMT
Here's a challenge back. Here's my ranking of every Conservative and Labour leader since Heath and Wilson in order of preference and I have put every Labour leader above every Tory. Would you do the same? Miliband (my politics), Callaghan (underrated),Smith (might have been very good given the chance), Brown (unlucky), Wilson (over-rated as a PM, good at winning elections), Blair (would have been higher but for Iraq), Kinnock, Corbyn, Starmer, Foot// Major, Hague, Heath, May, Cameron, Howard, Sunak, Thatcher, Duncan Smith, Johnson, Truss. Ah-the leftie's favourite Tory leader -The Grocer -gets demoted by you . Still -your timeline lets you off the hook with the all time favourite of the left -The 1st Earl of Stockton. MacMillan butters a few parsnips. The trad left tend to like him because he adopted the post-war settlement and tried to outdo Labour on housebuilding. The more liberal sort might like him because he wanted to take us into what became the EU. |
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Post by graham on Jul 18, 2023 10:11:56 GMT
Most people would accept that Labour can't do everything, but I think it goes beyond electoral positioning and not scaring Tory horses when Labour positions themselves as "there's no money left" and there's nothing we can do until we grow the economy. That's a Thatcherite positioning of there is no alternative. It's not even Blair's third way. While you could argue that Blair was justified in largely keeping to Tory tax plans in 1997, because that was where the country was at the time, there seems little justification for it now. 5% on top earners has been dropped, CGT equalised with Income Tax has been dropped. Other taxation plans, including on Corporation Tax, have been dropped. So what Labour has bought into is that you cannot grow an economy by raising taxes and it can only be done by "growth" but without any agenda to achieve a growth that, on a planet with finite resources, has eluded most of the western world for the last 15 years. You can grow an economy with tax rises that are used for investment but Labour appears to have blocked this off in their positioning so are reliant on any post Covid and Ukraine bounce back. I think the 2008 crash, Covid and Ukraine were significant economic events that could be seen as unusual, but they are also a symptom that world economies are so unstable they are no longer able to recover quickly from these type of events and this is largely down to the super rich hoarding too much of the wealth and Westerm worlds unable to be competitive with cheaper labour in the Far East and elsewhere. With the climate emergency now in full swing tweaking a Thatcherite solution which has been proved to have failed is not going to fix things one little bit. You say anything is better than the Tories, I would say lets get the meaningful alternatives up and running now rather than wasting 5 years with a softer version of the same. Some well positioned 2nd places for the Greens starting to appear and offering an alternative would, in my humble opinion, be more worthwhile than shifting chairs on the Titanic. In some ways I'm arguing against something I've known to be true all my life that there are only two alternatives to government- Tory or Labour, but when I look at how the western world and the country is now, it feels like last days of the Roman empire that needs a radical reset. Ironically Greens getting 7% vote share and a couple of seats is unlikely to prevent a Labour government as opinion polling stands at present. LD took advantage of this in 1997. Anyway I don't expect Green to make much progress next year and could even lose Brighton, so it seems odds on now that we will both be finding out what a Starmer government looks like and maybe 5 years later we'll be of a similar mind- obviously it will be you saying "you were right all along Shevii and I apologise profusely to all the mean things I said to you" :-) Your expectations are unrealistic in the present climate imo. There is no consensus in the country or even within Labour; people seem to want a change but there is little consensus regarding taxes and growth. The mood is not optimistic, it is cynical. Something you haven't mentioned is the international markets and the potential reaction they will have to a new Labour Govmt. At the end of December 2022, UK General government gross debt was £2,516.0 billion, or 101.0% Gross domestic product. www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/21/uk-government-debt-above-100-per-cent-of-gdp-first-time-since-1961#:~:text=The%20UK's%20total%20government%20debt,doubled%2C%20according%20to%20official%20figures. There is little room for manoeuvre and getting 'meaningful alternatives' up and running needs to reflect this. Before you are trusted to do anything radical, you have to demonstrate competence. This is the economic context in which Starmer if elected will be working in:- www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/21/uk-government-debt-above-100-per-cent-of-gdp-first-time-since-1961 Attlee faced a much higher debt level than 101%. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 18, 2023 10:12:50 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 18, 2023 10:15:34 GMT
You gov
Britons would vote to rejoin the EU by 51% to 32%, the highest figure for 'rejoin' since the referendum
18% of Leave voters would now vote to re-enter the EU
57% of Britons (including 19% of Leave voters) say that Britain was wrong to vote to leave the EU, also the highest figure to date
70% of Britons say the government is handling Brexit badly, including 58% of Leave voters
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shevii
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Post by shevii on Jul 18, 2023 10:17:38 GMT
There is room for manoeuvre. Sure I understand "the markets" and the government borrowing to GDP is an issue. The reason the markets went into meltdown with Truss is that the tax cuts were unfunded and would be added to borrowing. But CGT equalised with Income Tax would be accepted by the markets and in my humble opinion would not tank the economy in any way. |
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Post by moby on Jul 18, 2023 10:19:18 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 10:23:04 GMT
Yes it’s different now: it’s easier in many ways. We don’t have such high debt levels, we don’t have all the damaged housing and infrastructure, we don’t have an economy repurposed for war, we have a free-floating currency, and the populace is so accepting of left wing policies now they expect furlough and energy subsidies! Even Tories want nationalisations now. |
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Post by alec on Jul 18, 2023 10:25:30 GMT
neilj - very unfashionable to give Blair credit for anything, but yes, everyone knows that overall, life just got better for millions of people under New Labour. Far from perfect, and in many ways a missed opportunity to lock in something far more radical, but a very positive list of achievements. You missed out probably one of the biggest though, in terms of the numbers who benefit; The Countryside and Rights of Way Act 2000 was a landmark. In a way it epitomizes so much of New Labour. Really rather radical, with major, long lasting benefits for millions, but it could have been so much bolder. That said, the access to the English countryside was really opened up by this act, and the spending that went with it meant that the public footpath network improved by an astonishing rate after 2000. Of course, since 2010 the network has degraded once more, but this was a great and lifechanging bit of legislation that almost no-one registers now. I'd also like to regale the board with my classic NHS tale from the dark days, as an illustration of what New Labour achieved. In summer 1984 I had an issue with a wart on my finger. It kept getting knocked off and bleeding, and as I worked in catering at the time it was a pain. Saw the GP, who sorted a hospital appointment to have it removed. OK - treatments have evolved since then, but in those days it was an outpatient appointment, which came six weeks later, by post, with the appointment scheduled for....December 1992. By that time I had moved house, changed jobs and had been wart free for six years, but I tell this story just to remind people how absolutely shit the NHS was back then, and how our expectations of reasonably good and timely service all date from the New Labour years, when massive advances were made. But feel free to continue claiming Blair was just the same as the Tories. See where that gets you.
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Post by alec on Jul 18, 2023 10:29:21 GMT
Meanwhile, as the planet burns, another all time global record; Death Valley has just recorded the highest ever world midnight temperature, with 48.9C at Badwater.
We can keep on slagging off those Just Stop Oil protestors, or we can step back and wonder if they might be onto something.
But no - they're demanding we change our cosy lifestyles to save the planet, so lets just carrying on getting angry at them.
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Post by alec on Jul 18, 2023 10:31:22 GMT
Former Johnson shagger and dozy bumface Petronella Wyatt in the D Mail inspiring a lovely readers correction on twitter here -
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Post by James E on Jul 18, 2023 10:32:00 GMT
New Delta poll, recent polls have shown a slight narrowing, so this may be an outlier 🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is twenty-four percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 24% (-4) Lab 48% (+2) Lib Dem 11% (+2) Other 17% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th July 2023 Sample: 1,000 GB adults (Changes from 7th-10th July 2023) Deltapoll quite often seem to be on a different trajectory to the rest of the polling industry. While most current polls currently show the Labour lead slightly lower than it was at the start of 2023, Deltapoll's last 5 polls average a lead of 21% compared to 16% in their first 5 2023 polls. And i remember the opposite happening at one point last year, when their figures narrowed, again contrary to the general trend. I suspect that they may have made unannounced methodological changes. Not all pollsters are as open as Opinium of YouGov as to their methodologies. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 10:42:45 GMT
colin All countries can solve the " small boat " irregular migration route issues. In the UK rather than gaslighting the population with almost certainly illegal and irrelevant plans to "solve the people smuggling crisis" by the forcible rendition of a tiny fraction of those using the services of people smugglers. Process the asylum claims promptly and provided safe methods of travel into the U.K. Even those who buy in to the xenophobia of the regime if they had any functional brain cells could work out that the vast majority of those who have fled atrocious circumstances from regime's far worse and more draconian than team Sunakered will not be put off by fantasy threats. You solve the people smuggling crisis by removing their business model , you do that not by threatening their clients but providing safe methods to either enter the UK or apply safely for asylum outside of the U.K. and then travel by conventional methods. Those who still use small boats to enter the UK are then far more likely to have nefarious purposes and can be dealt with accordingly. Better tell the EU then-let 'em all in legally. How long do you think the queues will be ?. And where?=North Africa? And what makes you think that will stop them coming in boats? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 10:43:40 GMT
Ah-the leftie's favourite Tory leader -The Grocer -gets demoted by you . Still -your timeline lets you off the hook with the all time favourite of the left -The 1st Earl of Stockton. I've said before I'm not a Heath fan. He is only as high as he is because all the ones below him are either incompetent, had dreadful policies or both. Macmillan on the other hand ... Ah-the Aristocracy wins eh ? |
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Post by graham on Jul 18, 2023 10:44:38 GMT
The key to a sustainable high debt level is that real interest rates should be below the growth rate. Real interest rates have been negative for years and remain well below ouradmittedly pretty feeble growth rates. Today the UK would be far less vulnerable to overseas Sterling Balances being converted into other currencies - the 1947 Convertibility Crisis comes to mind. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 18, 2023 10:47:10 GMT
I wouldn't normally recommend anything with Piers Morgan but this interview with Neil deGrasse Tyson is fascinating stuff. youtu.be/NonNbIJ6Zm0 |
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Post by mercian on Jul 18, 2023 10:48:52 GMT
Since the tories, on the other hand, do respond to pressure from their right, this means that the supposed centre to which Labour always try to triangulate is constantly moving further to the right. This is an incredibly corrosive trend that goes beyond the result at one general election." I agreed with most of your post and the quote apart from this last sentence. My impression is that the centre has been moving left throughout my lifetime - certainly in social matters. e.g. abolition of hanging, legalisation of homosexuality, anti-racism laws and so on. You and the chap you quote are probably correct on the economic axis though. |
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Post by wb61 on Jul 18, 2023 10:51:32 GMT
Rating PM's since WWII based on the harm they did Atlee, Wilson, Brown, Blair, Douglas Hume, Macmillan, Major, Heath, May, Eden then tied in eleventh place Cameron & Johnson,Thatcher, Truss I have to admit it was a toss up amongst these last four ( I prefer to hold judgment on Sunak until his premiership is over) I assume that list is in order of least harm to most harm? You assume correctly: I thought putting Truss last would make that clear  |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 10:51:55 GMT
The key to a sustainable high debt level is that real interest rates should be below the growth rate. Real interest rates have been negative for years and remain well below ouradmittedly pretty feeble growth rates. Today the UK would be far less vulnerable to overseas Sterling Balances being converted into other currencies - the 1947 Convertibility Crisis comes to mind. The right depend on the idea that in difficult times we can’t afford more left-wing policies. But the point about many left-wing policies is that by spending more up front in certain ways, you can deal with hard times better and wind up better off. That’s what we did post-war and saw all that growth, it’s what Brown did in the banking crash, it’s what we did during Covid with furlough etc., it’s what we have done recently in the energy crisis with subsidies. As shevii says, the TINA approach doesn’t tend to work* and even Thatcher quietly moved away from it after it proved so harmful. * (unless maybe there is a big external stimulus like Canada had with the US booming next door) |
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Post by graham on Jul 18, 2023 10:52:21 GMT
Since the tories, on the other hand, do respond to pressure from their right, this means that the supposed centre to which Labour always try to triangulate is constantly moving further to the right. This is an incredibly corrosive trend that goes beyond the result at one general election." I agreed with most of your post and the quote apart from this last sentence. My impression is that the centre has been moving left throughout my lifetime - certainly in social matters. e.g. abolition of hanging, legalisation of homosexuality, anti-racism laws and so on. You and the chap you quote are probably correct on the economic axis though. But very much to the Right on economic matters. |
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