steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jul 17, 2023 14:38:54 GMT
Blair showing loyalty to the current Labour leadership, which unfortunately means he's talking total bollocks about brexit. It's very frustrating when both Blair and Starmer know better. youtu.be/1r9-Qi5zWYE |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 14:44:34 GMT
Colin (re likely consequences of brexit): "Don't the current polls indicate opinion on that question ?"Yes indeed, given the large swing to 'wrong to leave'. And re your: "I think Social Grade is interesting too-C1s having been the group to majorly vote Remain whilst all others voted majorly Leave. The Working Class by a large majority."
You appear to have got your psephological knickers twisted. Far from "all others voted majorly Leave" this is what the Ashcroft report actually said: "The AB social group (broadly speaking, professionals and managers) were the only social group among whom a majority voted to remain (57%). C1s divided fairly evenly; nearly two thirds of C2DEs (64%) voted to leave the EU." To adopt Sunspeak, it was the C2DEs wot dun it. Not for the first time I have to say thank you for correcting a post of mine ,done in too much haste with zero checking which completely concealed the point I was trying to make  |
|
|
|
Post by Rafwan on Jul 17, 2023 14:47:05 GMT
@fecklessmiser
Ok finally worked it out, I think. But I thought the Iceni were good revolutionaries!
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jul 17, 2023 14:48:16 GMT
Ukraine - bit of a fuss overnight at it transpires that Ukraine has taken out the Kerch Bridge again. This time they seem to have dropped one of the road bridge spans, which is pretty significant if true, although Russia claims the rail link is still operable. Reports emerging of Russia calling on tourists not to leave Crimea. Without the bridge route, supplying Crimea becomes substantially harder.
Also, the UK MoD briefing today suggesting that due to successful Ukrainian targeting, Russia has limited counter battery capabilities. Ukraine has apparently targeted the radar units that identify where artillery fire has come from, and these are critical in suppressing enemy fire as they can direct your own artillery to strike back. This may explain why Ukraine seem to having continued success with artillery attacks.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 14:49:52 GMT
@fecklessmiser  (A propos Boudicca)graham You cannot just pretend fifty years of change has not happened. It is impossible to know what Harold M or Heath might be offering. It is just beyond rational consideration. Isn’t it? “Rational” is the operative word. |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jul 17, 2023 14:52:49 GMT
It's very silly to stand politicians of 2023 against their counterparts in decades gone by.
What we need to understand is that individual leaders, and the parties they lead, never function in a vacuum. They are instead products of the relationship between left and right at the time they represent. You can't compare Heath with Starmer, because Heath was facing Wilson in the last 60s and early 70s. If Starmer was up against Heath at that time, it would be a different relationship and we'd see a different Starmer.
A large part of political identity and polling in the UK is defined by the other side. Looking at individuals in isolation and then trying to compare across the generations misses this critical point.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 14:53:37 GMT
@fecklessmiser Ok finally worked it out, I think. But I thought the Iceni were good revolutionaries! I think I would vote for Ethel Stan if it is a choice between her and ole Starmer. |
|
|
|
Post by Rafwan on Jul 17, 2023 14:56:38 GMT
Actually, Fecky, I was politely asking graham , not you. Maybe you could turn your attention to the vital question of the Iceni which I put to you earlier? (oh sorry, you just did) |
|
|
|
Post by wb61 on Jul 17, 2023 14:57:06 GMT
@fecklessmiser Ok finally worked it out, I think. But I thought the Iceni were good revolutionaries! I think I would vote for Ethel Stan if it is a choice between her and ole Starmer. If you want proper revolutionaries Owain Glyndwr must be up there surely  |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 14:58:58 GMT
I think I would vote for Ethel Stan if it is a choice between her and ole Starmer. If you want proper revolutionaries Owain Glyndwr must be up there surely Sounds forrun  |
|
|
|
Post by catfuzz on Jul 17, 2023 14:59:59 GMT
@donjg - "You're not doing yourself any favours by trying to link literally anything that can happen to someone to Covid. It just comes across as obsessional and induces an eye roll more often than not I imagine. It's too much. Personally I see no first hand evidence of unusual school absences nor do I hear of any from the many parents I know with children across school years in multiple schools." Indeed. That's why this site is dedicated to looking at statistical evidence, not anecdote. You are completely wrong; school absences are at record levels, as are teacher absences, and sickness is the primary cause of that. Metal health conditions are known to be one of the most common longer term impacts of covid, which is unsurprising, as Sars-Cov2 is known to infect the brain and fuses neurons together, in a similar way to early stage dementia, which is marked by an increase in anxiety and depression, two of the main symptoms post covid. I'm sorry if you don't like the evidence, but that's something only you can address. I'll keep posting the science, with a few human examples of how this translates into personal experience. It's up to you whether you choose to accept what the science is telling us, or to persist in hiding behind ignorance and anecdote. Ive just replied without reading the rest of the thread yet (so apologies if someone has already mentioned it) but there’s literally a multitude of reasons why someone’s mental health could be affected - the strongest threat of global / nuclear warfare in decades / climate breakdown / poor performing economies adding to cost of living woes. One of the main contributing factors to mental health associated with Covid would be being stuck inside a house for 1.5 years while the whole world stopped. This had an affect on a large number of people, especially those who had limited social interaction throughout this time. It’s not as simple as ‘Covid = Mental health problems’ it’s a much much more nuanced debate. As for absences (and I appreciate this is anecdotal) but my partner (a teacher) would very much disagree with your story on absences. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 15:02:03 GMT
Actually, Fecky, I was politely asking graham , not you. Maybe you could turn your attention to the vital question of the Iceni which I put to you earlier? (oh sorry, you just did) You can’t vote for an entire group of people to be Prime Minister. Which is why voting for Ethel Stan is the logical - and practical - solution. |
|
|
|
Post by davem on Jul 17, 2023 15:04:53 GMT
Thing just got very interesting in the northeast.
He said he would run if he got £25k in the go fund me appeal, by the end of the month. He has over £33k in less than 24 hours.
|
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Jul 17, 2023 15:27:27 GMT
Thing just got very interesting in the northeast. He said he would run if he got £25k in the go fund me appeal, by the end of the month. He has over £33k in less than 24 hours. Another example of the internecine warfare between the Right and Left in the Labour Party that has so often damaged their chances of forming a Government. There are obviously some people you have to throw out, like Militant Tendency in the 1980s and praise to Neil Kinnock for doing that because even though he didn't win in 1992 he made Blair's victory possible, but since 2015 we have seen first the Left under Corbyn doing this and now the Right under Starmer are getting their retaliation in. Those of us outside the Labour Party who recognise that left-of-centre politics has often punched below its weight just despair. |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jul 17, 2023 15:37:21 GMT
@catfuzz - not going into detail as I've been told to keep it off here, but I completely agree that mental health is very complex and nuanced. However, the data is very clear indeed - covid does lead to significant increases in mental health illness, and these data include multiple studies showing associated neurological changes (biomarkers, MRI brain scans, etc etc). I appreciate people have a lot of difficulty grasping this, because very few have the time/inclination to read the scientific data, but the associations are very solid indeed. Likewise with school absences. For whatever reason, teachers are also shown by several surveys to be some of the least aware of covid impacts, and most likely to propose false alternatives. Don't know why that is, but just putting that out there. Also - no, the world didn't stop for 1.5 years. The longest lockdown was just 10 weeks. Pubs reopened in July 2020. Lots of people are re-imagining the history of the pandemic and misremembering what actually happened.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jul 17, 2023 15:43:09 GMT
mercian Ha! That debunking of 'Remain lies' hasn't aged well since the September 2016 post you quote, has it? To take one that's dear to my heart, here's what Ellery had to say about post-brexit prospects for the car industry: "We were told companies would leave the UK in their droves, especially in the car industry. There is no sign of this, and UK car manufacturing achieving its 12th successive month of growth in July, with production passing one million units in seven months for the first time in 12 years." Here's what has actually happened to car production:
Edit: As well as car output more than halving since the 2016 high point identified by Ellery, both Honda and Vauxhall have subsequently stopped UK car production. Ford closed its Bridgend engine plant in 2020 after making more than 20m engines there. Arch-brexiteer Jim Ratcliffe then changed his mind about building his Grenadier vehicle at Bridgend and chose France instead.
It was just the first link that came up when I googled. There are plenty more. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 17, 2023 15:43:25 GMT
A thought for those within the Labour movement who are particularly critical of Starmer. The country is going to be on its knees economically and structurally when Starmer takes over, hopefully with the needed support of the liberal democrats. There is no magic wand he can wave to fix things overnight. It's going to take at least 10 years to recover from this mess. So we can't expect everything we don't like to go into the plan for week 1 of the new government. That doesn't of course mean he has to try to out Tory the Tories. do you think Labour would have won in 1945 with Kier Starmer as leader ? Would Attlee win now (especially on the 1945 manifesto)? Different world with different issues and dynamics, so the comparison doesn't mean much. |
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Jul 17, 2023 15:45:24 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jul 17, 2023 15:45:48 GMT
somerjohn In common with most brexitanians Mercian likes to focus on the damage that hadn't happened yet in 2016-19 before we left the European union but after the referendum as somehow proof that remainers were wrong about what would happen when we left. Reality rears its head we left and we were right. I can't say I've noticed any difference. Ok our inflation might be a bit higher than some comparable countries but that's about it. Not exactly the Armageddon that Remainers seem to think we're in. |
|
|
|
Post by Rafwan on Jul 17, 2023 15:47:54 GMT
leftieliberal" ... but since 2015 we have seen first the Left under Corbyn doing this ..." Can you remind me of anyone on the 'Right' who was deselected or expelled during this time?
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 17, 2023 15:54:40 GMT
A thought for those within the Labour movement who are particularly critical of Starmer. The country is going to be on its knees economically and structurally when Starmer takes over, hopefully with the needed support of the liberal democrats. There is no magic wand he can wave to fix things overnight. It's going to take at least 10 years to recover from this mess. So we can't expect everything we don't like to go into the plan for week 1 of the new government. That doesn't of course mean he has to try to out Tory the Tories. Starmer would still have a much less dire inheritance than faced Attlee in 1945. True, but worth noting the inheritance was from five years of war time coalition in which Labour ministers played a prominent role. Churchill's government didn't trash the economy through mad ideology and incompetence like the current mob. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jul 17, 2023 15:55:43 GMT
Not sure if this has been mentioned but I think all the by-elections on Thursday are counting on the night.
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,377
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 17, 2023 16:01:48 GMT
Redfield Wilton poll
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 17, 2023 16:01:48 GMT
Even if Starmer - like Blair - shows himself to be more of a Tory than the likes of Macmillan and Ted Heath? I would prefer Macmillan's policies to what Starmer appears to be offering.
You really seem to be having a struggle in working out what the real world choices are don’t you? Maybe you should organise a little “Fictional Figures Election” of your very own - hours of fun. I do those  |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 17, 2023 16:04:07 GMT
@fecklessmiser Ok finally worked it out, I think. But I thought the Iceni were good revolutionaries! They lost. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 17, 2023 16:08:33 GMT
leftieliberal " ... but since 2015 we have seen first the Left under Corbyn doing this ..." Can you remind me of anyone on the 'Right' who was deselected or expelled during this time? Alastair Campbell. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 17, 2023 16:11:18 GMT
Re: the discussion on climate and population etc., which I did find interesting, a couple of thoughts:
- Some people argue that AI rather than climate change is the biggest threat to humanity etc.
- It’s not easy to achieve in practice, and may take some time, but in principle as tech advances we might be able to support a bigger population while reducing the resource impact via various technological approaches: using more benign and more available materials, much more efficient use of materials, much more recycling, etc.
- and a bigger population can offer a greater number of problem-solvers to help make this happen
- some countries may look to use immigration to rebalance the age demographic, and there is a chance we might be one of them! It will also give more economic clout as the population grows, which might be attractive to some politicians.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 17, 2023 16:11:37 GMT
Jamie Driscoll - I can't in any way endorse his decision, but I suspect he will do well, not necessarily for ideological reasons as on a 'let's kick the establishment' basis.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 17, 2023 16:16:11 GMT
Not sure if this has been mentioned but I think all the by-elections on Thursday are counting on the night. You are correct that all three vital local government by-elections are counting on the night. I think there might be some other stuff going on that day, but not sure. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 17, 2023 16:24:28 GMT
Shaun Lintern has always been ahead of the game in reporting the realities of covid, and he's nailed one here - Very few commentators appear to understand that one of the main sets of symptoms triggered by post-covid syndrome are the neurological symptoms, and two of the leading illnesses are anxiety and depression. In this case, the husband believes his wife's psychosis was triggered by covid. Given the measured impacts on the brain, this is by no means unlikely. It's also worth remembering this when looking at figures like the school absentee rates. Very often, commentators point to the high number of mental health issues as an alternative to covid related absences, without realising that studies show the development of new onset mental health conditions is one of the most common symptoms of covid in children. You're not doing yourself any favours by trying to link literally anything that can happen to someone to Covid. It just comes across as obsessional and induces an eye roll more often than not I imagine. It's too much. Personally I see no first hand evidence of unusual school absences nor do I hear of any from the many parents I know with children across school years in multiple schools. to be fair to alec , it wasn’t him linking it to psychosis but he was pointing to research by others on the matter. As it happens, it’s not a radical idea and if you ignore the C-word, other infections are linked to depression and psychosis, as you may see if you Google “flu” in that context. Regarding absences, here’s some data rather than anecdote on the matter: “ The latest attendance data from the Department for Education (DfE) revealed that absences in the spring term this year were still 50% higher than before the pandemic, while in 2021-22 more than one in five secondary pupils were “persistently absent” for missing 10% or more of sessions.” www.theguardian.com/education/2023/apr/23/rise-in-school-absences-since-covid-driven-by-anxiety-and-lack-of-support-say-english-councilsThat was in April of this year, and in June… From Covid to poverty: why pupil absence in England is risingwww.theguardian.com/education/2023/jun/28/covid-poverty-pupil-absence-england-schools-social-economic-pandemic-families“ Government statistics for autumn 2022 show that 24% of pupils were persistently absent between September and December, missing at least 10% of sessions. The majority of those absences were caused by illness, with a rise in December linked to seasonal infections and the continued impact of Covid. More than 12% of pupils were classed as persistently missing because of illness.” (p.s. regarding the issue of infections having broader effects, on the previous thread I suggested there might be a link between HPV and dementia - checking later, seems that it’s H SV, not HPV) |
|
(A propos Boudicca)
