|
|
Post by somerjohn on Jul 17, 2023 9:13:03 GMT
Colin:"Fortunately we don't need to rely on your prejudices.
Someone actually asked twelve thousand people why they voted as they did then"
That Ashcroft post-referendum poll is very interesting.
However, one thing I don't think it does is to invalidate Pete's suggestion that the result reflected "just the disgruntled and the misinformed wanting to lash out", with the 'will of the people' element confined to "a relatively small number who'd actually thought about their choice, voting leave for myriad reasons."
The headline 'reasons to leave' ranked by Ashcroft reflect respondents' selection from a few available options, all of which were points of policy or principle, and none of which were "I'm pissed off with the way this country's run" or "the smarmy berks running this country need a good kicking"
In other words, the Ashcroft poll didn't attempt to reveal the underlying motivation of Leave voters, which is what I think Pete was talking about.
What it does do, however, is confirm the stark differences between Leave and Remain voters in terms of age, education, employment level and social class, any reminder of which seems to provoke such rage amongst the dwindling band of true brexiteers.
Also, the point often made here that those who voted Leave did so in the expectation of few if any negative consequences:
More than three quarters (77%) of those who voted to remain thought “the decision we make in the referendum could have disastrous consequences for us as a country if we get it wrong”. More than two thirds (69%) of leavers, by contrast, thought the decision “might make us a bit better or worse off as a country, but there probably isn’t much in it either way”.
Who got that judgement call right?
|
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Jul 17, 2023 9:13:35 GMT
Hi wb61 . I think it is even worse than that for me, it has infected my whole relationship to the site. I don't really want to post very much anymore, if there weren't three by-elections this week, I doubt I would even be checking it. I am so sorry to hear that. I really hope you stay (or at least pop in at times when events dictate, eg, by-elections, the forthcoming GE). Should you decide to leave, it woud be a sad loss for UKPR2 and I really hope you reconsider. I will advise, if that's the right word that you can always block the members that post lot of this stuff. I will, once again, also remind members that I have repeatedly asked that posts on covid are largely posted in the relevant thread in the "Issue Specific" room. (and yes, that last bit was sort of an "Admin" post)... |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,377
|
Post by neilj on Jul 17, 2023 9:13:42 GMT
I think this is an interesting analysis of polling in relation to recent tory policies
For me it's confirmed what I've thought for some time, the tories have given up on the red wall and are trying to consolidate the blue wall in a damage limitation exercise
You could add to the below the tories scrapping housing targets
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 9:18:05 GMT
A thought for those within the Labour movement who are particularly critical of Starmer. The country is going to be on its knees economically and structurally when Starmer takes over, hopefully with the needed support of the liberal democrats. There is no magic wand he can wave to fix things overnight. It's going to take at least 10 years to recover from this mess. So we can't expect everything we don't like to go into the plan for week 1 of the new government. That doesn't of course mean he has to try to out Tory the Tories. do you think Labour would have won in 1945 with Kier Starmer as leader ? |
|
|
|
Post by wb61 on Jul 17, 2023 9:21:54 GMT
A thought for those within the Labour movement who are particularly critical of Starmer. The country is going to be on its knees economically and structurally when Starmer takes over, hopefully with the needed support of the liberal democrats. There is no magic wand he can wave to fix things overnight. It's going to take at least 10 years to recover from this mess. So we can't expect everything we don't like to go into the plan for week 1 of the new government. That doesn't of course mean he has to try to out Tory the Tories. I do wonder how much is expectations management from Starmer et al and how much is what they (particularly Reeves and that wing of the party) actually believe is good policy! |
|
|
|
Post by wb61 on Jul 17, 2023 9:28:24 GMT
I am in a new constituency (boundary change not me moving)for the next general election, it combines Neath and Swansea East, on that basis it should be a safe Labour seat, but, purely anecdotally, people I know who have always voted Labour are, like me, considering voting Plaid Cymru, because the London Party is so far from their core beliefs. The one caveat is that Llafur in the Senedd are much more "Labour" in our terms which is causing a dilemma as we do not want to damage Labour prospects in the Senedd and lead to a Scottish meltdown situation with Plaid emerging.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 9:31:28 GMT
Hi wb61 . I think it is even worse than that for me, it has infected my whole relationship to the site. I don't really want to post very much anymore, if there weren't three by-elections this week, I doubt I would even be checking it. I think you speak for many. I must admit, my spirits rose a little yesterday when the new thread was started. I naively thought it might be a fresh start, especially with three juicy by-elections just days away, and lots of scope for genuine polling discourse. I should have known better. In less than 24 hours, we're back to the same old 'yah, boo sucks' sterile, unwinnable Covid obsession between two otherwise intelligent, articulate posters, who can't seem to appreciate that their undoubtedly well-intentioned p*ssing contest largely alienates the rest of the UKPR2 community. If there wasn't a dedicated Covid thread, they couldn't use it. But there is. Please, you chaps, have a care for us simple souls who just want to have good, forensic discussions on polling, with liberal helpings from time to time of the diverting ephemeral whimsy which stops it all getting too tedious. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 9:36:12 GMT
colin Ashcroft polled people shortly after the vote. Do you think some will have changed their minds after realising they were lied to? You appear to assign more importance to the opinions expressed seven years ago when millions have subsequently changed their minds and millions of brexit voters because of the age related propensity to vote leave have died. Yes-some clearly have. I was responding to an opinion about the Brexit vote in 2016-not opinion today. I note your choosing of age as a demographic difference between the votes. I think Social Grade is interesting too-C1s having been the group to majorly vote Remain whilst all others voted majorly Leave. The Working Class by a large majority. Another interesting thing to me was the Ashcroft questions on which opinions were entirely opposed rather than variably different. They were:- " For most children growing up in Britain today life will be better/worse than it was for their parents " and "overall today life in Britain is better/worse than it was 30 years ago" Remainers voted net better to both & Leavers voted net worse |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 9:39:14 GMT
Who got that judgement call right? Don't the current polls indicate opinion on that question ? |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jul 17, 2023 9:41:50 GMT
Good news - /photo/1
NHS England issue new air quality standards, looking at HEPA and UVC cleansing. They accept the overwhelming case that this can substantially reduce airborn pathogens and reduce hospital acquired infections by 65 - 80%, saving £2bn pa and reducing staff sickness, with a 2 year payback.
Really don't care if people are bored of covid. It's arguably more of a threat to humanity than climate change is. Such opinions are of zero value in such circumstances.
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Jul 17, 2023 9:42:18 GMT
A thought for those within the Labour movement who are particularly critical of Starmer. The country is going to be on its knees economically and structurally when Starmer takes over, hopefully with the needed support of the liberal democrats. There is no magic wand he can wave to fix things overnight. It's going to take at least 10 years to recover from this mess. So we can't expect everything we don't like to go into the plan for week 1 of the new government. That doesn't of course mean he has to try to out Tory the Tories. do you think Labour would have won in 1945 with Kier Starmer as leader ? An odd question as you really can't compare personalities from different eras in that way but yes he would. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 9:47:15 GMT
Really don't care if people are bored of covid. It's arguably more of a threat to humanity than climate change is. Such opinions are of zero value in such circumstances. Well that's a big "fuck you" to the rest of the board in view of recent posts. I thought you were better than this Alec.
|
|
|
|
Post by wb61 on Jul 17, 2023 9:50:19 GMT
Hi wb61 . I think it is even worse than that for me, it has infected my whole relationship to the site. I don't really want to post very much anymore, if there weren't three by-elections this week, I doubt I would even be checking it. I am so sorry to hear that. I really hope you stay (or at least pop in at times when events dictate, eg, by-elections, the forthcoming GE). Should you decide to leave, it woud be a sad loss for UKPR2 and I really hope you reconsider. I will advise, if that's the right word that you can always block the members that post lot of this stuff. I will, once again, also remind members that I have repeatedly asked that posts on covid are largely posted in the relevant thread in the "Issue Specific" room. (and yes, that last bit was sort of an "Admin" post)... Hello Mark how do I block please, I noted that last post from Alec as I hoped he would have taken note of you, his God Complex along with his an Danny's incessant posting on COVID has driven me to avoid the site for weeks sometimes. I need them gone. Sorry to be so intolerant but there are limits |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jul 17, 2023 9:50:53 GMT
isa
Fear not, my little sensible tax optimising saving and investment option, I come bearing ephemeral whimsy from yonder Lisbon, the capital of Portugal. Here with my good wife celebrating our 40th wedding anniversary. Sadly, our last day in this magnificent city. We will soon be venturing out for a day wandering around the museums and streets of the city's old maritime quarter of Belem. Home early tomorrow.
I've checked in to this site for the first time in a good few days, doing some idle internet surfing on my phone via the available free wi-fi.
I was anxious to get the latest updates on the COVID pandemic and Sir Keith Stalin's antics. I was not disappointed either.
Pjw1961 will also be pleased to know that the Dinnington local council by election result received extensive coverage in the serious Portuguese press.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jul 17, 2023 9:58:06 GMT
Lakeland Lass I think so, after the austerity years of 30's and the war people wanted a change and even more so than now there were just the two choices. My main issue with Starmer compared to for example the Blair government or of course Atlee, is that Labour then had a coherency it was a project with goals and aspirations, irrespective of the success it clearly wasn't just an anti Tory vote. Even devoted labourites would have to admit that under Starmer while the toxicity of Corbyn has gone from public perception it's been replaced by a vanilla vacuum,Labour is perceived by most simply as the safe anti Tory vote to get shot of the worst government we've had since the second world war. That from a partisan position is good for more progressive parties like mine but it still lacks self confidence, based on not offending those who might otherwise vote tory. I hope once in office some coherency and more comprehensive ideas will emerge,but I am less than confident given recent pronouncements. I'm sure a Labour government will take their responsibilities as public servants far more seriously than the current regime but is that enough, not really.
|
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Jul 17, 2023 9:58:36 GMT
Hello Mark how do I block please, I noted that last post from Alec as I hoped he would have taken note of you, his God Complex along with his an Danny's incessant posting on COVID has driven me to avoid the site for weeks sometimes. I need them gone. Sorry to be so intolerant but there are limits There are two ways to block another member. Method 1: Go to the profile of the member you want to block. Click the "Cog" symbol (top right). You will then see an option to block the member. Method 2 : Go to your own profile. Click on 'Edit Profile@, then click on the "Privacy" tab. You will see a list of members you have blocked (if any) along with additional options to block members. |
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Jul 17, 2023 10:02:36 GMT
Really don't care if people are bored of covid. It's arguably more of a threat to humanity than climate change is. Such opinions are of zero value in such circumstances. Well that's a big "fuck you" to the rest of the board in view of recent posts. I thought you were better than this Alec.
I can't understand why alec continues to do this when most of the board don't engage. Why doesn't he go and do it somewhere else where he might have better engagement and change some minds. The arrogance that is displayed by his comment above is extraordinary. know @mark tries to run this site on the 'good chaps' principle but surely it's time for him to enforce his 'covid posts on the covid thread' more rigorously. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jul 17, 2023 10:03:12 GMT
colinThey were:- " For most children growing up in Britain today life will be --worse than it was for their parents " Well the brexitanians managed to fulfil their prediction on that point.
|
|
|
|
Post by wb61 on Jul 17, 2023 10:03:42 GMT
There are two ways to block another member. Method 1: Go to the profile of the member you want to block. Click the "Cog" symbol (top right). You will then see an option to block the member. Method 2 : Go to your own profile. Click on 'Edit Profile@, then click on the "Privacy" tab. You will see a list of members you have blocked (if any) along with additional options to block members. Many thanks you are assisting me in preserving my sanity |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 10:05:07 GMT
isa Fear not, my little sensible tax optimising saving and investment option, I come bearing ephemeral whimsy from yonder Lisbon, the capital of Portugal. Here with my good wife celebrating our 40th wedding anniversary. Sadly, our last day in this magnificent city. We will soon be venturing out for a day wandering around the museums and streets of the city's old maritime quarter of Belem. Home early tomorrow. I've checked in to this site for the first time in a good few days, doing some idle internet surfing on my phone via the available free wi-fi. I was anxious to get the latest updates on the COVID pandemic and Sir Keith Stalin's antics. I was not disappointed either. Pjw1961 will also be pleased to know that the Dinnington local council by election result received extensive coverage in the serious Portuguese press. Never made it to Lisbon, I'm afraid, but we've spent several happy hols on the Algarve enjoying the hospitality of the very friendly locals. Delightful people. Enjoy your last day. |
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Jul 17, 2023 10:06:59 GMT
There are two ways to block another member. Method 1: Go to the profile of the member you want to block. Click the "Cog" symbol (top right). You will then see an option to block the member. Method 2 : Go to your own profile. Click on 'Edit Profile@, then click on the "Privacy" tab. You will see a list of members you have blocked (if any) along with additional options to block members. Many thanks you are assisting me in preserving my sanity Me too. Thanks Mark. Blocked alec and @danny. That's the first time I've blocked anybody, even Trevor, even though I don't read his posts. It will save me hours of scrolling past these two posters. |
|
|
|
Post by Rafwan on Jul 17, 2023 10:09:41 GMT
Hi wb61 . I think it is even worse than that for me, it has infected my whole relationship to the site. I don't really want to post very much anymore, if there weren't three by-elections this week, I doubt I would even be checking it. That is a very great shame |
|
|
|
Post by Rafwan on Jul 17, 2023 10:20:21 GMT
steve Agree with (nearly) everything you say to Lakeland Lass . But, setting aside your own political commitments, which would you prefer (and why), Labour’s programme in 2017 and 2019, or Labour’s programme now?
|
|
|
|
Post by graham on Jul 17, 2023 10:25:19 GMT
A thought for those within the Labour movement who are particularly critical of Starmer. The country is going to be on its knees economically and structurally when Starmer takes over, hopefully with the needed support of the liberal democrats. There is no magic wand he can wave to fix things overnight. It's going to take at least 10 years to recover from this mess. So we can't expect everything we don't like to go into the plan for week 1 of the new government. That doesn't of course mean he has to try to out Tory the Tories. Starmer would still have a much less dire inheritance than faced Attlee in 1945. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jul 17, 2023 10:26:07 GMT
RafwanThe Tories were very beatable in 2017, with a different leader but broadly the same policies they would probably have won. Of course I would have preferred a Labour government even with Corbyn as leader over the current catastrophic failure. But that's a pretty low bar. Meanwhile on the child benefit cap introduced in 2017 Another day where Starmer refuses to do the right, just and moral thing and instead does the thing that won't anger daily mail readers. It is liberal democrat policy to remove the cap.
|
|
|
|
Post by somerjohn on Jul 17, 2023 10:28:59 GMT
Colin (re likely consequences of brexit): "Don't the current polls indicate opinion on that question ?"
Yes indeed, given the large swing to 'wrong to leave'.
And re your:"I think Social Grade is interesting too-C1s having been the group to majorly vote Remain whilst all others voted majorly Leave. The Working Class by a large majority."
You appear to have got your psephological knickers twisted. Far from "all others voted majorly Leave" this is what the Ashcroft report actually said:
"The AB social group (broadly speaking, professionals and managers) were the only social group among whom a majority voted to remain (57%). C1s divided fairly evenly; nearly two thirds of C2DEs (64%) voted to leave the EU."
To adopt Sunspeak, it was the C2DEs wot dun it.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jul 17, 2023 10:29:19 GMT
graham"Vote Tory not as damaging as six years of global war" They should put that on their campaign literature.
|
|
|
|
Post by graham on Jul 17, 2023 10:33:48 GMT
graham "Vote Tory not as damaging as six years of global war" They should put that on their campaign literature. That fails to address the issue of Starmer's response to his likely inheritance. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jul 17, 2023 10:35:16 GMT
Hi wb61 . I think it is even worse than that for me, it has infected my whole relationship to the site. I don't really want to post very much anymore, if there weren't three by-elections this week, I doubt I would even be checking it. Yes it blights the whole site. It's a bit like living with a long-term ailment (anything but Covid!  ), some days are better than others, but it's always there in the background causing pain and discomfort, and sometimes it flares up so we get pages and pages of interminable essays. There is a Covid thread and occasionally when there are enough complaints they go there for a short time. However because hardly anyone else does, it's never long before they're back to inflict it on us again. alec, Danny, can't you just agree to differ and leave it at that? If either of you have 'significant others' I pity them. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 10:40:33 GMT
Just three days to go until 'Super Thursday', when by-election fever reaches its climax. Considering the stakes, I remain surprised at the apparent indifference of the local populace to the Somerton and Frome contest.
I know it's hardly scientific, but I can't remember an election with fewer outward reminders that a contest is taking place. Still just a smattering of LDEM posters locally, and literally *none* favouring other parties have I seen. Usually, farmers' fields etc. are pretty full of CON posters at election time, but I genuinely haven't seen any this time around. I wonder if there has been a conscious decision not to bother with them.
Any Uxbridge or Selby contributors noted any similar phenomenon?
|
|
), some days are better than others, but it's always there in the background causing pain and discomfort, and sometimes it flares up so we get pages and pages of interminable essays.