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Post by James E on Jul 20, 2023 21:50:31 GMT
Just a little more historical perspective on this set of by elections. Take Selby and Ainsty. Should Labour overturn the Tory majority of 20,000, it will be the biggest majority they've overturned anywhere, and in any circumstances, since the Second World War. We're in new territory in terms of Tory by-election defeats if they lose Selby to Labour. I think it was 512th on Labour's target list? No sign of anything other than 3 Tory losses tonight from the twitter vibes. Sometimes you do get a bit of gossip around this time that things may be closer than anticipated. I would also say that on the Anthony article linked earlier- he might be right in one respect about "not telling us anything" about a General Election and I imagine Selby will return to Tory, probably Frome as well, but it does tell us the determination to turn out, albeit with lower turnouts than General Elections. Compared to earlier in this parliament where Labour were underperforming in by elections and locals, they are definitely more in line with opinion polls now I think.Selby and Ainsty is the 117th safest Conservative seat per the 2019 results. Alternatively, it is/was Labour target number 225, so might fall if Labour achieved 427+ seats - or at least 400 if the SNP were to stay dominant in Scotland. www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/conservativeRegarding Labour 'underperforming' in by-elections: I think there may be an interesting comparison to be made between Selby, and the results in the 3 'Lab-defence' by elections we had around 6-8 months ago. The current polls with Lab lead averaging 19% are very much the same as they were for Stretford and Urmiston (Dec 2022), and Labour were enjoying slightly higher polling leads at the times of City of Chester (Dec 2022) and W Lancashire (Feb 2023). But in each of those, Labour had a lower swing in the by-elections than the opinion polls at that time, by around 2-5%. However, Labour did achieve a greater swing than the polls were suggesting when winning the Wakefield by-election (June 2022). In other words, Labour seem to be getting better swings where they are attacking than in defending seats they already hold. So if Selby (and Uxbridge?) provide swings of greater than the 15% that current polls are showing, then maybe this can tell us something useful for the next General Election. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 20, 2023 21:51:38 GMT
Nice to see Mercian's alter ego Jen making a welcome reappearance today.
He is a card that old Mercian, isn't he? Taking on so cinvincingly a persona utterly alien to his innermost being.
That said, you never see nickp and Trevor posting at the same time, do you?
I mean, they couldn't possibly be a Mecian/Jen type two-headed posting entity too, could they?
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 20, 2023 21:56:05 GMT
The reason past splits didn't work in the long run is the ruthless logic of FPTP and the domination of the large parties, with their resources of money, activities and access to the media. I would point out that it is me who is trying to preserve a left wing voice in the Commons here and Graham who wants them to commit electoral suicide (btw they won't). If anyone seriously thinks there is a likelihood of a socialist left party outwith Labour winning significant numbers of Westminster seats under FPTP (remembering the Greens have managed one in 50 years) I suggest they set up such a party and stand for election and see how FPTP treats them. But you are rather ignoring the examples of former Labour MPs who have beaten the party machine. S.O. Davies managed to do that at Merthyr Tydfil in 1970 . Dick Taverne was returned again for Lincoln in February 1974 as was Eddie Milne for Blyth at the same election. Dave Nellist came within 1500 votes of holding Coventry SE in 1992. I fully expect Corbyn to hold Islington North should he decide to run as an Independent. Perhaps Diane Abbot would also be successful. The scenario I referred to earlier would have involved rebellion by a SDP size group of Campaign Group MPs capable of inflicting serious parliamentary damage on Starmer - and ,if necessary, being prepared to put up candidates at by elections against official candidates. Were Starmer to become seriously unpopular , such candidates might do well - as I expect Driscoll to do - even if the split vote ends up handing seats to the Tories and other parties.
I'm not ignoring them as they all support my point. SO Davies died in 1972 so we won't know how he would have fared in 74, but Labour won the by-election. Taverne and Milne both lost in October 1974 so survived mere months as independents. Nellist lost. Of the c40 SDP defecting Labour MPs only Owen, Maclennan, Cartwright and Wrigglesworth were reelected in 1983 (Jenkins was a by-election win, Kennedy was new) and three of those were gone by 1992, with Maclennan joining the Lib Dems. Corbyn might possibly win as an independent - but I will bet you one term only. That's been the pattern. I'm afraid your idea is fantasy fed by your own hatred of Starmer. Your plan would extinguish the left wing voice in parliament, which would be truly sad. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 21:58:49 GMT
Nice to see Mercian's alter ego Jen making a welcome reappearance today. He is a card that old Mercian, isn't he? Taking on so cinvincingly a persona utterly alien to his innermost being. That said, you never see nickp and Trevor posting at the same time, do you? I mean, they couldn't possibly be a Mecian/Jen type two-headed posting entity too, could they? Well, your mate nickp’s posts never take up more than half a line. The Trevor’s are a *minimum* of half a page (based on scrolling time at an average pace) so I think it unlikely. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 20, 2023 22:01:20 GMT
Nice to see Mercian's alter ego Jen making a welcome reappearance today. He is a card that old Mercian, isn't he? Taking on so cinvincingly a persona utterly alien to his innermost being. That said, you never see nickp and Trevor posting at the same time, do you? I mean, they couldn't possibly be a Mecian/Jen type two-headed posting entity too, could they? Jen's after Trev this time though and he is a lot more thin-skinned that Mercian. I predict tears before bedtime. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 20, 2023 22:08:35 GMT
Rafwan"Nobody beforehand really thought Corbyn could or would achieve the result in 2017" Oh I don't know I was reasonably confident he would lose just the 60 seats and a million votes more and he would have proved me wrong.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 20, 2023 22:08:37 GMT
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 22:17:15 GMT
Richter scale shocks on the cards. Such as the Tories holding one of the seats? |
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Post by RAF on Jul 20, 2023 22:19:08 GMT
Selby won't be declaring until about 6.00am, apparently. Somerton & Frome probably 3.30am. Uxbridge could the first circa 2.00am. Will the popcorn last until Selby? BBC1 By Election Special on air all night though. No Huw Edwards, alas Here we go! Were you up for Selby? The question may enter electoral folklore in time. 😋🤣 I wondered why there might be such a difference between the expected result times. The simplest answer is that the electorates in these constituencies vary quite significantly: Uxbridge and South Ruislip - 66,131 Selby and Ainsty - 77,654 Somerset and Frome - 82,150 I guess that doesn't quite explain the slow count in Selby but it does shed light on why Uxbridge will be first. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 22:20:52 GMT
I agree with steve on this one. May ran a very lack-lustre campaign and yet the Tory vote increased by over 2 million compared to 2015. Of course it's just a matter of opinion but I think that the increase in the Tory vote was because of fear of Corbyn. A 'safer' Labour leader might have won despite not enthusing the young so much. The 2017 election was all about Brexit, as indeed 2019. Did you somehow not hear about brexit? About how it was streets ahead in polling on what mattered to voters? Similarly it wasnt corbyn who mattered but labour identifying as the remain party. By 2019 labour had frankly lost that label as it was desperately spinning to appeal to both remainers and leavers. In my opinion, this cost it perhaps not a victory in 2019, but at least a closer parity with MPs to con. Refusing to adopt a strong remain line lost lab that election. And similarly lab right now stands for little. It may be true there arent enough strong remainers now to win an election, although that really hasnt been demonstrated because there is no party offering this. But labour doesnt have any other cause either to use to rally opposition to con. Yes, it has time, and I think Blair too tried to keep his powder dry till the last moment. But we really arent seeing lab offering more than tory light. Which didn't do it for the libs.
Polling suggest libs are likely to win a seat tonight. There is no way this suggests the nation loves labour.
You do have a weird take on reality. Labour have not identified as the Remain party. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 20, 2023 22:23:20 GMT
For what it's worth, which is not much, the word from the couple of Braintree Labour members down in Uxbridge today was that it all looked very promising. Mind you one of those predicted his own defeat in May before topping the poll, so I wouldn't bet the house!
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Post by jimjam on Jul 20, 2023 22:23:28 GMT
Mine:
Uxbridge & South Ruislip
Lab 44% (+6)
Con 36% (-16)
swing 11.5%
Selby and Ainsty - think Yorkshire may take 1-3% off the Tories and many Tories will stay at home.
Lab 42% (+18)
Con 32% (-28)
swing 23%
Somerton and Froom - no idea how big an LD win but will go a little lower swing just to be different from James.
LD 51% (+25)
Con 30% (-23)
swing Con to LD 24%
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 22:26:30 GMT
Just a little more historical perspective on this set of by elections. Take Selby and Ainsty. Should Labour overturn the Tory majority of 20,000, it will be the biggest majority they've overturned anywhere, and in any circumstances, since the Second World War. We're in new territory in terms of Tory by-election defeats if they lose Selby to Labour. I do think that the electorate is more volatile than it used to be. There once were many people who always voted Labour 'because my father did' or Tory because 'people like us just do'. Nowadays with all the social media stuff, bandwagons can start and fizzle out quite quickly. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 20, 2023 22:27:26 GMT
Mine: Uxbridge & South Ruislip Lab 44% (+6) Con 36% (-16) swing 11.5% Selby and Ainsty - think Yorkshire may take 1-3% off the Tories and many Tories will stay at home. Lab 42% (+18) Con 32% (-28) swing 23% Somerton and Froom - no idea how big an LD win but will go a little lower swing just to be different from James. LD 51% (+25) Con 30% (-23) swing Con to LD 24% My joy would be unconfined. Going to bed in the hope of good news. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 22:30:35 GMT
Just a little more historical perspective on this set of by elections. Take Selby and Ainsty. Should Labour overturn the Tory majority of 20,000, it will be the biggest majority they've overturned anywhere, and in any circumstances, since the Second World War. We're in new territory in terms of Tory by-election defeats if they lose Selby to Labour. I think it was 512th on Labour's target list? No sign of anything other than 3 Tory losses tonight from the twitter vibes. Sometimes you do get a bit of gossip around this time that things may be closer than anticipated. I would also say that on the Anthony article linked earlier- he might be right in one respect about "not telling us anything" about a General Election and I imagine Selby will return to Tory, probably Frome as well, but it does tell us the determination to turn out, albeit with lower turnouts than General Elections. Compared to earlier in this parliament where Labour were underperforming in by elections and locals, they are definitely more in line with opinion polls now I think. You may be right but I would caution that twitter is not the world. Also although these by-elections will probably have a higher turnout than recent local by-elections, the evidence from the latter is that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour. However we will soon see the reality. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 20, 2023 22:31:51 GMT
"Ed Davey
@edwardjdavey
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I think we’re going to need a bigger tractor. 🚜
11:10 PM · Jul 20, 2023"
Seems promising☺
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 22:36:13 GMT
You need to sneak out the back entrance quietly Pete. Just to be on the safe side.  If you mean me I've got my big boy pants on. |
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Post by RAF on Jul 20, 2023 22:40:31 GMT
Mine: Uxbridge & South Ruislip Lab 44% (+6) Con 36% (-16) swing 11.5% Selby and Ainsty - think Yorkshire may take 1-3% off the Tories and many Tories will stay at home. Lab 42% (+18) Con 32% (-28) swing 23% Somerton and Froom - no idea how big an LD win but will go a little lower swing just to be different from James. LD 51% (+25) Con 30% (-23) swing Con to LD 24% I suspect Uxbridge will be a lot closer. It's a very tough nut to crack for Lab. Maybe a 2-3% win? I don't really know that much about the other two constituencies but with Ed Davey already claiming victory in Somerset, it looks like there will be a huge swing to the LDs there - certainly above 20%. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 20, 2023 22:46:39 GMT
Just popped in to see what news on the Westminster by-elections - which can be equally accurately described as being in England, GB, or UK. Which rather makes so obvious that the cretins at YG are not only ignorant of political geography, but consequently phrase their question in a stupid and misleading way. "Tory rebels are seeking to amend onshore wind rules that are so strict they effectively constitute a ban in England
72% of Britons say new onshore wind farms should be allowed in the UK, with only 8% saying they should be banned.
Do you think new onshore wind farms should be allowed in the UK or should be banned?"While Westminster claims to be able to make the rules for anywhere in the UK, it would be totally irrelevant to those in GB if it covered Northern Ireland in windfarms, or had none there at all, as it isn't part of the GB electricity network, but the Irish one. As foolishly phrased, some respondents may have said Yes as they wish more wind farms in GB to be built in Scotland (where we already have many, and are building more) or Wales, so as not to sully England. Since the question is clearly intended to refer to the restrictions in England imposed by the UKGE that they elected, it would have been more useful to have asked about windfarms in England, and not UK. This isn't just pedantry. Most people are not aware of the geographic limitations that currently apply, and so the question implies (wrongly) that "the UK" has a single set of planning laws which Westminster/UKGov administers. I doubt that YG does this deliberately. They are just arrogant, ill-educated and pathetically ignorant. _______________________________________________________________________________ Danny spoke about ScotGov wanting the power to " legalise drugs". I don't blame him for that error, but the news source that provided that information - possibly the BBC. The power sought is to decriminalise drug possession when for personal use. The distinction is important - "The key difference to a criminal model is that in a decriminalised model, while penalties still apply for use and possession of drugs, they are no longer criminal charges. Decriminalisation is not legalisation. If drug possession and personal use are decriminalised, it is still illegal to possess and use drugs."adf.org.au/talking-about-drugs/law/decriminalisation/overview-decriminalisation-legalisation/#:~:text=The%20key%20difference%20to%20a,to%20possess%20and%20use%20drugs. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 22:51:25 GMT
The full-on by-election specials haven't even started yet, but already I'm thinking I may have disastrously miscalculated the hours to declaration/alcohol consumption equation. The first cava bottle is already quite depleted. This could get quite messy by Selby and Ainsty.
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 22:54:54 GMT
Conservative splinters have fared just as badly. UKIP (with a couple of defecting Tour MPs) polled 12.6% of the UK vote in 2015 and got 1 MP. FPTP is ruthless in crushing small parties. However they did achieve their primary aim - a referendum and eventual leaving the EU. MPs aren't everything. A small party with a strong message can influence the parties in power by taking a lot of votes away from them and affecting the results in seats. This then forces the large party to take on their policies to some extent. The Greens are another example. Unfortunately from my point of view they have a lot of left-wing policies as well, though concern for the environment shouldn't be a left-right thing. A lot of farmers and landowners have a responsible attitude to nature even though they are not generally left wing. Anyway the point is that the Greens only have one seat but all major parties now have some kind of green policies and because of the left-wingness of the Green Party, Labour and LibDems in particular are concerned about them. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 20, 2023 22:57:34 GMT
Our local team already claiming we've won Somerton and Frome, the lib dems ballot pile must be bloody enormous to claim the win this early.
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 23:01:35 GMT
Odd, why on earth would they prefer politics to cricket? 1/ They don’t understand the rules or why dogs can’t play if they could be bothered. 2/ They don’t understand why the players don’t catch the ball with their teeth. 3/ It gets very boring.Not today. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 23:05:19 GMT
Selby won't be declaring until about 6.00am, apparently. Somerton & Frome probably 3.30am. Uxbridge could the first circa 2.00am. Will the popcorn last until Selby? BBC1 By Election Special on air all night though. No Huw Edwards, alas Here we go! Were you up for Selby? The question may enter electoral folklore in time. 😋🤣 Why not? I hope he's not 'ill'. 🤣 |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 23:08:23 GMT
1/ They don’t understand the rules or why dogs can’t play if they could be bothered. 2/ They don’t understand why the players don’t catch the ball with their teeth. 3/ It gets very boring.Not today. I’m looking at it from a dog’s point of view. It is not a quick game is it? |
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 23:08:51 GMT
Nice to see Mercian's alter ego Jen making a welcome reappearance today. He is a card that old Mercian, isn't he? Taking on so cinvincingly a persona utterly alien to his innermost being. That said, you never see nickp and Trevor posting at the same time, do you? I mean, they couldn't possibly be a Mecian/Jen type two-headed posting entity too, could they? Well, your mate nickp’s posts never take up more than half a line. The Trevor’s are a *minimum* of half a page (based on scrolling time at an average pace) so I think it unlikely. Perhaps Mr Poppy and crossbat11 are alter egos? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 23:10:54 GMT
Well, your mate nickp’s posts never take up more than half a line. The Trevor’s are a *minimum* of half a page (based on scrolling time at an average pace) so I think it unlikely. Perhaps Mr Poppy and crossbat11 are alter egos? Batty is long-winded, yes. But poetically long-winded. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 23:11:38 GMT
Nick Watt is a gushing, overexcited bore.
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Post by mercian on Jul 20, 2023 23:15:38 GMT
The full-on by-election specials haven't even started yet, but already I'm thinking I may have disastrously miscalculated the hours to declaration/alcohol consumption equation. The first cava bottle is already quite depleted. This could get quite messy by Selby and Ainsty. I've been to the pub and am still imbibing. Doubt I'll make it to the first declaration. I will treat it as a test of durability despite old age so we shall see. |
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Post by James E on Jul 20, 2023 23:19:23 GMT
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