16-JUL 2023 : LAB: 46% / CON: 26% / LDEM: 11% / REF: 6%

[johntel]

Jul 20, 2023 19:09:45 GMT crossbat11 said:

Managed to get some popcorn in for the early hours of tomorrow morning. Late supplies arrived in our area this afternoon and I joined a long queue at our local Co-op store. The scenes were incredible. Desperate people besieged the popcorn-laden army lorries as they arrived and had to be beaten back by flail-wielding Labour Party activists managing the distribution.

I think I saw grown men weep when a lorry was emptied of popcorn sacks before they could get there. Scuffles broke out between disappointed amateur psephologists who claimed priority. Some of the crowd turned on them. My Sir John Curtice mask didn't go down well with some either.

There is huge anticipation in the air for the by-election counts to come.

Richter scale shocks on the cards.

Pity, you missed a really good afternoon for England in the test match.

[jen]

Jul 20, 2023 18:17:20 GMT Mr Poppy said:

I wonder if any other LW LAB politicians will take notice and realise Starmer-LAB is not the LAB they want to be part of and stand as Inds or get together and form a genuine LoC party?

I wonder if any other RW CON politicians will take notice and realise Sunak-CON is not the CON they want to be part of and stand as Inds or get together and form a genuine RoC party?

Suella Himmler could then lead the remaining Nat-C's...

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 20, 2023 20:03:01 GMT johntel said:

Jul 20, 2023 18:32:26 GMT mercian said:

I agree with steve on this one. May ran a very lack-lustre campaign and yet the Tory vote increased by over 2 million compared to 2015. Of course it's just a matter of opinion but I think that the increase in the Tory vote was because of fear of Corbyn. A 'safer' Labour leader might have won despite not enthusing the young so much.

But May wouldn't have risked calling the election if Corbyn hadn't been perceived as being an electoral liability for Labour. And then she's probably have maintained her opinion poll popularity and been able to force through her Brexit plan....

Which thankfully never happened. Some dark days for True Br-Leavers from GE'17 to late 2019 but thanks once again to Remain MPs for going 'all in' on a Final Say election and then given they didn't want to put Corbyn in #10 for the sole purpose of EURef2 we had GE'19 instead. Nice one 👍

[Deleted]

A section from an opinion piece by Arma Mahdawi in the G. today which I rather liked. It was referencing a rather nasty (obviously popular…) c/w song.

“ But that’s conservatives for you. Last month Nikki Haley tweeted about how much better the US used to be back in the days before marginalized people had rights. “Do you remember when you were growing up, do you remember how simple life was, how easy it felt? It was about faith, family, and country,” she tweeted.

Was the past really that easy for the former South Carolina governor? By her own admission things have got a hell of a lot better for people who, like her, aren’t 100% white. “Years ago I was disqualified from a pageant because they didn’t know whether to put me in the white category or the black,” she wrote on Facebook in 2012. “I was neither. Tonight I watched my daughter get first place in her school pageant. God has an amazing way of bringing things full circle.” God also has an amazing away of depriving people like Haley of self-awareness.”

[Deleted]

Jul 20, 2023 16:22:18 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 20, 2023 12:24:30 GMT Rafwan said:

Hehe. OK, scratch the last bit. But history does not of itself have immutable laws, it cannot explain or teach anything. This can only be done with careful scrutiny and analysis. Unless you can explain why past splits didn't worked, you cannot be sure this will always be the case.

The reason past splits didn't work in the long run is the ruthless logic of FPTP and the domination of the large parties, with their resources of money, activities and access to the media. 

I would point out that it is me who is trying to preserve a left wing voice in the Commons here and Graham who wants them to commit electoral suicide (btw they won't). If anyone seriously thinks there is a likelihood of a socialist left party outwith Labour winning significant numbers of Westminster seats under FPTP (remembering the Greens have managed one in 50 years) I suggest they set up such a party and stand for election and see how FPTP treats them. 
 

graham for combined pm and Archbishop of Canterbury. Could be tempting.  

[lens]

Jul 20, 2023 19:30:20 GMT Danny said:

Jul 20, 2023 18:38:27 GMT alec said:

Danny - "The answer is NOT nuclear, because nuclear is an always on technology."

Different topic, same result. It's wrong.

Modern nuclear is perfectly compatible with short term grid balancing, older plants less so - www.powermag.com/flexible-operation-of-nuclear-power-plants-ramps-up/

No, the issue isn't 'always on', the issue is it's 'so bloody expensive that the investors will only invest if it's kept always on'.

You seem to be agreeing with me yet again? Nuclear has a fixed and massive construction cost and a finite lifetime which is largely unaffected by whether it spends that time switched on or off. So if its off half the time, the average cost of the power it produces doubles. Those investors are saying that to achieve a profit at the contracted price for elctricity, it cannot ever be turned off. 

Danny, you're getting into a minutiae of detail and not seeing the wood for the trees. Regardless of the technology, *ANY* operator would like their generation output to be of their own choosing - "if we can generate, we'd like to do so, and be paid for it". To a market dictated by demand somebody is going to have to be disappointed - no point in generating if there's no customer. And grid demand is obviously highly variable - both on a daily basis and also seasonal.

That's true of generating plant be it nuclear, wind, gas, oil, coal or whatever. The extremes are to either build for minimum demand (and accept power cuts when demand is high) or build for the peaks and accept well under 100% utilisation ("inefficiency") in the troughs. There's no getting away from that. The reality is the latter situation is more likely, no government is going to be happy with widespread power cuts in winter. And if you tell plant not to generate (and receive income) then how do you compensate for it? How would you tell a (say) wind farm operator "sorry, we'd rather pay a nuclear station 100% of the time or it won't be economic and you'll have to lump it"? For that matter, how do you tell (say) a gas fired station that you'd like them to vary their output up and down so you can preferentially take all a wind farm can offer?

You'd have to say to your nuclear operator that "if you want to generate near 100% of the time, you'll have to accept that you must be responsible for some of the cost of compensating others for not being paid". (To put it as simplistically as possible.) Unless you give the nuclear operators what others would regard as an unfair advantage.

Storage can certainly help - but you're still up against some of the same issues. As far as hydrogen goes, then how to compensate (say) an electrolyser operator for periods when you'd prefer all generation to go to the grid? How to compensate the gas power station designed to use that hydrogen when you've got enough power from wind and nuclear (say)?

Well...... it can be eased somewhat by interconnectors between countries for more averaging, and there is cope for improvement in smart metering to encourage consumption at troughs and discourage at peaks. (Electric car charging offers a lot of scope here. Plug your car in in the evening, tell the system "I want 80% SOC by 8am" and the system draws power when most advantageous to smoothing the grid.)

[jen]

Jul 20, 2023 20:09:42 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Jul 20, 2023 20:03:01 GMT johntel said:

But May wouldn't have risked calling the election if Corbyn hadn't been perceived as being an electoral liability for Labour. And then she's probably have maintained her opinion poll popularity and been able to force through her Brexit plan....

Which thankfully never happened. Some dark days for True Br-Leavers from GE'17 to late 2019 but thanks once again to Remain MPs for going 'all in' on a Final Say election and then given they didn't want to put Corbyn in #10 for the sole purpose of EURef2 we had GE'19 instead. Nice one 👍

Yes, it worked out really well for Putin's poodles. You must be dead chuffed.

But change is coming. And, in the end, YOU and all collaborators are going to pay for the damage you caused to everybody else.

Never forgive, never forget.

[Deleted]

Jul 20, 2023 19:09:45 GMT crossbat11 said:

Managed to get some popcorn in for the early hours of tomorrow morning. Late supplies arrived in our area this afternoon and I joined a long queue at our local Co-op store. The scenes were incredible. Desperate people besieged the popcorn-laden army lorries as they arrived and had to be beaten back by flail-wielding Labour Party activists managing the distribution.

I think I saw grown men weep when a lorry was emptied of popcorn sacks before they could get there. Scuffles broke out between disappointed amateur psephologists who claimed priority. Some of the crowd turned on them. My Sir John Curtice mask didn't go down well with some either.

There is huge anticipation in the air for the by-election counts to come.

Richter scale shocks on the cards.

Rosie and Daisie have asked if they can stay up late. They sleep most of the day so we’ve said yes and left the telly on for them. No popcorn though.

[johntel]

Jul 20, 2023 20:29:40 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

Jul 20, 2023 19:09:45 GMT crossbat11 said:

Managed to get some popcorn in for the early hours of tomorrow morning. Late supplies arrived in our area this afternoon and I joined a long queue at our local Co-op store. The scenes were incredible. Desperate people besieged the popcorn-laden army lorries as they arrived and had to be beaten back by flail-wielding Labour Party activists managing the distribution.

I think I saw grown men weep when a lorry was emptied of popcorn sacks before they could get there. Scuffles broke out between disappointed amateur psephologists who claimed priority. Some of the crowd turned on them. My Sir John Curtice mask didn't go down well with some either.

There is huge anticipation in the air for the by-election counts to come.

Richter scale shocks on the cards.

Rosie and Daisie have asked if they can stay up late. They sleep most of the day so we’ve said yes and left the telly on for them. No popcorn though.

Odd, why on earth would they prefer politics to cricket?

[pjw1961]

Jul 20, 2023 17:25:04 GMT Mark said:

Anyone know what time the results of each of the three by-elections is likely tonight?

Are you referring to the three key local government by-elections in Ceredigion, Worcester and Swindon? I believe they are counting overnight, so sage to assume by 1 a.m. 

[Deleted]

You need to sneak out the back entrance quietly Pete. Just to be on the safe side.

[Danny]

Jul 20, 2023 20:23:18 GMT lens said:

Jul 20, 2023 19:30:20 GMT Danny said:

You seem to be agreeing with me yet again? Nuclear has a fixed and massive construction cost and a finite lifetime which is largely unaffected by whether it spends that time switched on or off. So if its off half the time, the average cost of the power it produces doubles. Those investors are saying that to achieve a profit at the contracted price for elctricity, it cannot ever be turned off. 

Danny, you're getting into a minutiae of detail and not seeing the wood for the trees. Regardless of the technology, *ANY* operator would like their generation output to be of their own choosing - "if we can generate, we'd like to do so, and be paid for it". To a market dictated by demand somebody is going to have to be disappointed - no point in generating if there's no customer. And grid demand is obviously highly variable - both on a daily basis and also seasonal.

That's true of generating plant be it nuclear, wind, gas, oil, coal or whatever.

The extremes are to either build for minimum demand (and accept power cuts when demand is high) or build for the peaks and accept well under 100% utilisation ("inefficiency") in the troughs. There's no getting away from that. The reality is the latter situation is more likely, no government is going to be happy with widespread power cuts in winter. And if you tell plant not to generate (and receive income) then how do you compensate for it? How would you tell a (say) wind farm operator "sorry, we'd rather pay a nuclear station 100% of the time or it won't be economic and you'll have to lump it"? For that matter, how do you tell (say) a gas fired station that you'd like them to vary their output up and down so you can preferentially take all a wind farm can offer?

You seem to be making the case for having one unified state power generation system, which chooses what to switch on and off without paying compensation to anyone. The insanity of running it the way we do is starting to show when people are required to pay top rate for electricity when the real cost of generation through renewables is a fraction of this.

You'd have to say to your nuclear operator that "if you want to generate near 100% of the time, you'll have to accept that you must be responsible for some of the cost of compensating others for not being paid". (To put it as simplistically as possible.) Unless you give the nuclear operators what others would regard as an unfair advantage.

But we do give the nuclear operators that unfair advantage. Because if we had not done this, it would have been impossible to let the contracts to build the recent new plants kinda ordered. Yep, we have promised them a massive guaranteed sum essentially regardles of whether we want that energy at that price in ten or twenty years. Which means this is guaranteed to crowd out cheap renewables energy, because we have already committed to buying the expensive nuclear sort.

Storage can certainly help - but you're still up against some of the same issues. As far as hydrogen goes, then how to compensate (say) an electrolyser operator for periods when you'd prefer all generation to go to the grid?

The short answer is simply because when they do get it, the energy is cheap. The raw energy is the valuable item, not the plant itself. But you do keep making arguments for the state to do this. Incidentally, hydrogen plant would be way cheaper than nuclear power because of the risks from nuclear. Its not the risk of a massive explosion which is the problem, but the compensation risk should SE England become uninhabitable.

Well...... it can be eased somewhat by interconnectors between countries for more averaging, and there is cope for improvement in smart metering to encourage consumption at troughs and discourage at peaks. (Electric car charging offers a lot of scope here. Plug your car in in the evening, tell the system "I want 80% SOC by 8am" and the system draws power when most advantageous to smoothing the grid.)

Hmm. Shame there are more public charging points in westminster than six nothern cities put together. Yes that is an alternative possibility for storing energy, but developing that one isnt going well either. And while we might persuade people to charge off peak (tricky if that means on street parking for all on bright sunny days, no one is installing it), I dont see much scope to drain that power back into the grid, which is what we really need to do. We need to store energy in summer for winter and hydrogen can do that.

[pjw1961]

Jul 20, 2023 18:00:03 GMT Rafwan said:

pjw1961

I do agree with much of what you say. I just don’t think that poor old history should get the blame for it! Also I am not nearly as certain as you. It depends on the programme offered, and who is offering it and how credible they are. I mean how did the Labour Party get going in the first place? The Greens don’t really have anything that might be called a coherent left wing programme. Nobody beforehand really thought Corbyn could or would achieve the result in 2017. And Livingstone achieved an astonishing result with the 2000 London mayoralty. And what is your betting on Jamie Driscoll? Simply saying it could never happen is a big mistake.

For my part, I really don’t want it to happen, but like many, I despair at the benefit cap and at what has happened to Driscoll and others. It seems so terribly ill-judged and based on highly suspect data. Kettle’s piece this morning was mildly encouraging, and Stephen Bush had an interesting FT piece over the weekend and seemed certain that a Labour government would reverse the regardless of what it says now.

I didn't say it could never happen, just not on a long term sustained basis. If you want the most successful historical example it would be the Independent Labour Party (ILP) which having been part of the Labour movement, somewhat split itself off in 1931 - although only rarely did ILP and Labour directly oppose each other - and succeeded in electing MPs 1931-45. The reason for this success was it had a specific power-base in Glasgow ('Red Clydeside') - it never made significant inroads anywhere else. The ILP was effectively re-absorbed by Labour in the 1940s. 

A group of left wing Labour MPs rebelled against the Labour in the 1945-50 parliament (the Labour Independent Group) - they were crushed in the 1950 election, all losing their seats. Most other Labour splinters have been on the right. All have failed in the short to medium term. 

Conservative splinters have fared just as badly. UKIP (with a couple of defecting Tour MPs) polled 12.6% of the UK vote in 2015 and got 1 MP. FPTP is ruthless in crushing small parties. 

[pjw1961]

Jul 20, 2023 18:17:20 GMT Mr Poppy said:

I wonder if any other LW LAB politicians will take notice and realise Starmer-LAB is not the LAB they want to be part of and stand as Inds or get together and form a genuine LoC party? I'm not sure Greens would take in LAB 'refugees' but in the Corbyn era there was quite a bit of overlap between LAB and Green policy and a lot of Greens were 'squeezed' into voting LAB in the past. 

You wish. 

[neilj]

Due to the quick two changes in the tory leadership in 2022 a total of £2.9m of tax payers money was paid out to hand picked tory political SPADs
Interested information on their make up from Sam Freedman

'Sam Freedman
@samfr
At least eight of the SPADs who benefitted from £2.9 million in severance payments during the political chaos of 2022 had previously worked for the Taxpayers Alliance - including its co-founder Matthew Elliot. Can I have my money back please?'

[graham]

Jul 20, 2023 19:53:52 GMT shevii said:

Jul 20, 2023 19:45:56 GMT crossbat11 said:

Just a little more historical perspective on this set of by elections. Take Selby and Ainsty. Should Labour overturn the Tory majority of 20,000, it will be the biggest majority they've overturned anywhere, and in any circumstances, since the Second World War.

We're in new territory in terms of Tory by-election defeats if they lose Selby to Labour.

I think it was 512th on Labour's target list?  No sign of anything other than 3 Tory losses tonight from the twitter vibes.  Sometimes you do get a bit of gossip around this time that things may be closer than anticipated.

I would also say that on the Anthony article linked earlier- he might be right in one respect about "not telling us anything" about a General Election and I imagine Selby will return to Tory, probably Frome as well, but it does tell us the determination to turn out, albeit with lower turnouts than General Elections.  Compared to earlier in this parliament where Labour were underperforming in by elections and locals, they are definitely more in line with opinion polls now I think.

Boundary changes in Selby will be helpful for Labour - and the predecessor seat was Labour - held 1997 - 2010.  Moreover, when a seat changes hands at by elections following a big swing the winning party usually enjoys a 'bounce' at the subsequent GE. Examples of the latter are - Copeland in  early2017 and retained at GE a few months later - the Tory gains at Crewe & Nantwich and Norwich North in 2008 and 2009 respectively saw well above average swings  to the Tories at the 2010 GE. Had there not been a by election at Copeland in February 2017, it is likely Labour would have held the seat at the GE.

[crossbat11]

Jul 20, 2023 20:37:12 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 20, 2023 17:25:04 GMT Mark said:

Anyone know what time the results of each of the three by-elections is likely tonight?

Are you referring to the three key local government by-elections in Ceredigion, Worcester and Swindon? I believe they are counting overnight, so sage to assume by 1 a.m. 

I'm actually in Nunnery awaiting the count. With a turn out of 167, it shouldn't take long. Then it's In front of TV for the by-election declarations. What a night of TV viewing it's going to be?

Right up there with Nixon's resignation speech and the who killed JR revelation episode of Dallas.

Of course, a Labour hold in Nunnery will be the highlight, if it transpires that is,

[neilj]

Some very interesting and perhaps surprising results
Even 59% of Conservative voters think it’s more of a priority to build social housing than private homes for sale.

[Deleted]

Safely back from casting my ballot. The crush at the polling station didn't materialise, but the clerks said voting had been steady all day. Turnout might therefore be rather higher than I thought earlier based on my completely unscientific election poster count.

As I mentioned earlier, lots of wrinklies in evidence. This would normally be a good sign for CON, and might still be, but LDEM did very well in the Somerset Council elections last year, and presumably a good proportion of their voters then were oldies, too, and the polls are if anything worse for CON now than they were then.

Anyhoo, we'll know quite soon.

[alec]

Danny - "You seem to be making the case for having one unified state power generation system, which chooses what to switch on and off without paying compensation to anyone. The insanity of running it the way we do is starting to show when people are required to pay top rate for electricity when the real cost of generation through renewables is a fraction of this."

Yes - that's it. I think you've got it. You were wrong to claim that nuclear is an 'always on' technology. It isn't. Even the existing nuclear can flex reasonably well, and well enough on the predictable timescales of wind generation forecasts. The problem isn't technology, which means that yes, nuclear could be used as a balance to intermittent renewables, unlike your original post claimed. But we can agree that what is holding us back from doing this is the failed attempt at a market based, competition driven model for energy supply.

[Deleted]

Jul 20, 2023 20:35:14 GMT johntel said:

Jul 20, 2023 20:29:40 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

Rosie and Daisie have asked if they can stay up late. They sleep most of the day so we’ve said yes and left the telly on for them. No popcorn though.

Odd, why on earth would they prefer politics to cricket?

1/ They don’t understand the rules or why dogs can’t play if they could be bothered.

2/ They don’t understand why the players don’t catch the ball with their teeth.

3/ It gets very boring.

[pjw1961]

I have done a little task for Labour that a few people on this site would really have enjoyed. Knowing I am an electoral geek I was asked to draw up proposals for the new Essex CC electoral boundaries for Braintree District Labour's submission to the Boundary Commission. The official criteria were - roughly equal size at c15,700 voters, natural communities, don't cross parish boundaries and minimum of change. The unofficial criterion was advantage the Labour Party as much as possible. Before anyone gets snooty about that, the other parties can make submissions on the boundaries and will try to favour themselves, so it all cancels out in the end.

Anyway, I think we did a pretty good job. The proposals look very sensible and credible - more so than the existing ECC wards in fact - and yet somehow also manage to create three urban areas undiluted by all those rural Tory areas. Signed off by the Braintree and Witham JEC tonight. Fingers crossed they find favour with the Boundary Commission!

[pjw1961]

Jul 20, 2023 21:01:45 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jul 20, 2023 20:37:12 GMT pjw1961 said:

Are you referring to the three key local government by-elections in Ceredigion, Worcester and Swindon? I believe they are counting overnight, so sage to assume by 1 a.m. 

I'm actually in Nunnery awaiting the count. With a turn out of 167, it shouldn't take long. Then it's In front of TV for the by-election declarations. What a night of TV viewing it's going to be?

Right up there with Nixon's resignation speech and the who killed JR revelation episode of Dallas.

Of course, a Labour hold in Nunnery will be the highlight, if it transpires that is,

'Sage' was a typo, but kind of cool so I'm leaving it unamended. 

Are the nuns objecting to your presence?

[graham]

Jul 20, 2023 16:22:18 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 20, 2023 12:24:30 GMT Rafwan said:

Hehe. OK, scratch the last bit. But history does not of itself have immutable laws, it cannot explain or teach anything. This can only be done with careful scrutiny and analysis. Unless you can explain why past splits didn't worked, you cannot be sure this will always be the case.

The reason past splits didn't work in the long run is the ruthless logic of FPTP and the domination of the large parties, with their resources of money, activities and access to the media. 

I would point out that it is me who is trying to preserve a left wing voice in the Commons here and Graham who wants them to commit electoral suicide (btw they won't). If anyone seriously thinks there is a likelihood of a socialist left party outwith Labour winning significant numbers of Westminster seats under FPTP (remembering the Greens have managed one in 50 years) I suggest they set up such a party and stand for election and see how FPTP treats them. 
 

But you are rather ignoring the examples of former Labour MPs who have beaten the party machine. S.O. Davies managed to do that at Merthyr Tydfil in 1970 . Dick Taverne was returned again for Lincoln in February 1974  as was Eddie Milne for Blyth at the same election. Dave Nellist came within 1500 votes of holding Coventry SE in 1992. I fully expect Corbyn to hold Islington North should he decide to run as an Independent. Perhaps Diane Abbot would also be successful.

The scenario I referred to earlier would have involved rebellion by a SDP size group of Campaign Group MPs capable of inflicting serious parliamentary damage on Starmer - and ,if necessary, being prepared to put up candidates at by elections against official candidates. Were Starmer to become seriously unpopular , such candidates might do well - as I expect Driscoll to do - even if the split vote ends up handing seats to the Tories and other parties.

[crossbat11]

Jul 20, 2023 21:20:25 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 20, 2023 21:01:45 GMT crossbat11 said:

I'm actually in Nunnery awaiting the count. With a turn out of 167, it shouldn't take long. Then it's In front of TV for the by-election declarations. What a night of TV viewing it's going to be?

Right up there with Nixon's resignation speech and the who killed JR revelation episode of Dallas.

Of course, a Labour hold in Nunnery will be the highlight, if it transpires that is,

'Sage' was a typo, but kind of cool so I'm leaving it unamended. 

Are the nuns objecting to your presence?

Wise of you to leave that typo unamended.

Sage has stuffing connotations too

The Worcester Sisters of Mercy are proving agreeable hosts at tonight's count.

[Deleted]

Jul 20, 2023 19:36:01 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jul 20, 2023 19:20:55 GMT colin said:

They wont be shocks will they ?

Not if the VI being indicated by national polling for months is accurate.

Or the polling in the Byelection constituencies are accurate .

Or inflation and mortgage rates and the NHS are things causing hurt and anger to million of people 

?


A "shock" would surely be if the Tories don't get triply stuffed .

You've allowed your expectations to be managed. We don't know the results yet, so we're speculating, but if the scale of these Tory losses are anything like the forecasts, then these will be almost unprecedented Con-Lab swings, even by by-election standards. We've seen gargantuan swings from Con-LD in this and other Parliaments, but 20%+ Con to Lab swings this near to the next election will be extraordinary.

I just read the polls !!!

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 20, 2023 21:30:16 GMT colin said:

Jul 20, 2023 19:36:01 GMT crossbat11 said:

You've allowed your expectations to be managed. We don't know the results yet, so we're speculating, but if the scale of these Tory losses are anything like the forecasts, then these will be almost unprecedented Con-Lab swings, even by by-election standards. We've seen gargantuan swings from Con-LD in this and other Parliaments, but 20%+ Con to Lab swings this near to the next election will be extraordinary.

I just read the polls !!!

What you need, at a time like this, is Hobnobs

[pjw1961]

Jul 20, 2023 20:24:23 GMT jen said:

Jul 20, 2023 20:09:42 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Which thankfully never happened. Some dark days for True Br-Leavers from GE'17 to late 2019 but thanks once again to Remain MPs for going 'all in' on a Final Say election and then given they didn't want to put Corbyn in #10 for the sole purpose of EURef2 we had GE'19 instead. Nice one 👍

Yes, it worked out really well for Putin's poodles. You must be dead chuffed.

But change is coming. And, in the end, YOU and all collaborators are going to pay for the damage you caused to everybody else.

Never forgive, never forget.

Are tickets going to be available? I would like to see that!

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 20, 2023 20:06:00 GMT johntel said:

Jul 20, 2023 19:09:45 GMT crossbat11 said:

Managed to get some popcorn in for the early hours of tomorrow morning. Late supplies arrived in our area this afternoon and I joined a long queue at our local Co-op store. The scenes were incredible. Desperate people besieged the popcorn-laden army lorries as they arrived and had to be beaten back by flail-wielding Labour Party activists managing the distribution.

I think I saw grown men weep when a lorry was emptied of popcorn sacks before they could get there. Scuffles broke out between disappointed amateur psephologists who claimed priority. Some of the crowd turned on them. My Sir John Curtice mask didn't go down well with some either.

There is huge anticipation in the air for the by-election counts to come.

Richter scale shocks on the cards.

Pity, you missed a really good afternoon for England in the test match.

Airpods.* The Pro version with “transparency mode” so you can still hear what’s going on around you. Then you can queue while keeping up on the cricket. (You can even use them for programming synth sounds in an app without disturbing anyone else after the cricket stops)

* or summat like the Sonys if you’re not an Apple aficionado 

[crossbat11]

Selby won't be declaring until about 6.00am, apparently. Somerton & Frome probably 3.30am.

Uxbridge could the first circa 2.00am.

Will the popcorn last until Selby? BBC1 By Election Special on air all night though. No Huw Edwards, alas

Here we go!

Were you up for Selby? The question may enter electoral folklore in time.

😋🤣