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Post by shevii on Apr 21, 2023 15:16:34 GMT
Clear narrowing and whilst I still think the LEs will produce a PNS lead for Lab of 6-8%; below 5% which would be good for the Tories is possible. I took the view weeks ago that suggestions of 10%+ either where expectation management from Lab opponents or just simplistic extrapolation from the surface data from analysts or journalists. Seats will probably be key to the narrative the day after. I'm not sure even with the polls narrowing there's a great narrative for the Tories so given those projections of 1,000 seat losses were a while back and would have made a huge headline, those headlines might not be so much better for them if it ends up at 700-800 especially given the general public won't have paid much attention to the 1,000 figure being put around a while back. Still room for an ABT vote as well if only one party is going after the Tory vote in a particular seat. But also room for will not vote and voter ID to have an impact. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 21, 2023 15:16:51 GMT
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Post by graham on Apr 21, 2023 15:26:23 GMT
Article by Rob Ford on potentials for tactical voting: swingometer.substack.com/p/tactical-voting-how-much-can-the?r=8jnjk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webHe's working off UNS and a minority (just) Labour government (pre tactical voting and using a 10% swing UNS) and I was a little surprised how little, OK 40 seats if you took the extreme end of cleaning up the 3rd party vote, that there were. He also makes the point that the higher Lab lead to begin with (ie lower Con percentage) the better the tactical voting scenario becomes. There's always a more or less fixed floor for a 3rd party vote, the Labour floor higher than the LD floor IMHO so some seats may come up against that and it might take a couple of elections for voters to appreciate how close things are but I found it interesting that he has put a range on the impact of possible tactical voting. I disagree with his suggestion that Cities of London& Westminster and Finchley & Golders Gree are serious prospects for the LDs. 2019 was likely to have been very much an aberration in both seats. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 15:34:00 GMT
This is the most rotten, venal, corrupt, extreme government in the last 100 years and it has done enormous damage to the country. I'm amazed you can't see that. To be fair, we live in an information age where it is much easier to find out about this stuff. So i couldnt be certain its the worst. |
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Post by alec on Apr 21, 2023 15:41:47 GMT
Danny - "Alec has been unable to produce any evidence that this is happening. If you take certain datasets of people who have had bad covid, you find higher risks for other diseases." Do stop lying - it's very unbecoming. As I have explained multiple times, you are completely wrong in your oft stated assertion that the data I post only looks at serious covid cases. I've even provided you with a series of papers that looked at asymptomatic cases (yes, really) that have demonstrated significantly elevated post infection health risks. There is a whole world of excellent science out there that you choose to ignore. If you choose not to read the evidence that is presented to you, that's your choice, but if you then continue to lie about there not being any evidence, it just makes you looking like a complete arse of a troll.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 15:46:58 GMT
YG snap poll on Raab resigning. Even a majority of the CON x-break think "He was right to resign" (aka "keep his word")
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 16:13:49 GMT
If you seek to map it all, Covid has a number of attack vectors - via the ACE2 cells, via attacking the immune system, via inflammation etc. - and these are things that can in turn affect numerous parts of the body. Hence the concern. There are too many ways it can potentially get you, to just dismiss it in my view. Esp. as some damage can be hidden for a while, or attributed to something else. Yes, I agree there are all sorts of things it can do. However...I dont find this surprising. There are other diseases which are know to have multiple roues of attack. If they had all been studied as much as covid, I am sure they would all be producing similar profiles. So I dont see reason to think covid is any worse than some of its relatives we are experienced with. By the by, did you hear the recent report about viral RNA/DNA which is permanently incorporated in our body cells possibly being an important cause of cancer? Thereby raising th possibility of creating vaccination against specific DNA and possibly being able to treat cancer this way. The report didnt go on, but there must be a reason why this DNA has become incorporated into our cells. And there is probably some reason yet to be discovered how it can be beneficial to us. Viruses and ourselves have a lot in common. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 16:15:08 GMT
This is the most rotten, venal, corrupt, extreme government in the last 100 years and it has done enormous damage to the country. I'm amazed you can't see that. To be fair, we live in an information age where it is much easier to find out about this stuff. So i couldnt be certain its the worst. I picked my timescale to miss Lloyd George selling peerages and Horatio Bottomley. |
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Post by moby on Apr 21, 2023 16:20:00 GMT
barbara - well moby gave your post a like, wasn’t surprising, take this quote below of his to ptarmigan , key points put in bold… See the classic right wing approach: how the entirety of Corbyn’s program is dismissed out of hand as “radical” and not viable due to “economic realities”. The classic arguments of the right, even as we keep moving leftward in practic, showing that left wing policies are not only viable but essential. Price subsidies are no longer radical. Furlough no longer radical. Nationalising energy even favoured by many Tories now. Increasing use of state subsidy for business etc. Note too, the Liberal priority instead: the concern for equality of opportunity, which can accept a lot more inequality in practice. Whereas the left are often more concerned with equality of outcome. Isn't it naive though to see politics as attractive in any sense. The reality is in a modern democracy there are a set of options limited by economic and political realities, (Truss found that out recently when she tried to introduce her version of Trussonomics. She and her supporters really believed they could move the dial. They were excited by their radical ideas for 'growth'. The markets didn't agree however and she was gone within 40 odd days! for reasons not initiated by political decisions in this country. Her removal was a decision made by her own Party reacting to international markets and the polls. Many of the tories I'm sure agreed with her but knew it wouldn't wash, so compromised their beliefs and got rid of her pronto to save their own necks. We left of centre are no different; we are constrained by exactly the same forces. I always knew this when I campaigned and voted for Corbyn's Labour. His manifesto was radical but his choices were always going to be constrained by economic realities. I believe that you have to be realistic about this and look at the wider pictu re. Social justice, equality of opportunity etc are always prioritised by Labour more than the tories (imo).....even if those choices are not being defined in they way that you want them to be. That's the stark reality of our voting system. The Greens under the present system are a wasted vote. The Tories don't fear you voting Green, they fear you voting Labour. I see you only quoted me selectively. I never dismissed his programme out of hand. I was simply pointing out that although Corbyn's manifesto was radical it would have been constrained in practice by economic realities as Truss found out to her cost. I don't consider that a 'classic right wing approach'. I consider it an acknowledgement that we live in a capitalist western democracy in which market forces will influence economic decisions. Change can still happen but Corbyn's way wasn't going to work. He was always going to struggle to get a democratic mandate from what I could deduce. On the doorstep many people were telling me they thought it was fantasy politics and they were calling him 'magic grandpa'. Perhaps you were getting a different reception when you were canvassing? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 16:21:35 GMT
I've even provided you with a series of papers that looked at asymptomatic cases (yes, really) that have demonstrated significantly elevated post infection health risks. By now its quite likely everyone has been exposed to covid. Its not a question of extrapolating from those who have to those who havnt. We have all had it, the damage or lack thereof is already done. If there was going to be a tsunami of disease it would already have happened. It has not. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 16:21:37 GMT
If you seek to map it all, Covid has a number of attack vectors - via the ACE2 cells, via attacking the immune system, via inflammation etc. - and these are things that can in turn affect numerous parts of the body. Hence the concern. There are too many ways it can potentially get you, to just dismiss it in my view. Esp. as some damage can be hidden for a while, or attributed to something else. Yes, I agree there are all sorts of things it can do. However...I dont find this surprising. There are other diseases which are know to have multiple roues of attack. If they had all been studied as much as covid, I am sure they would all be producing similar profiles. So I dont see reason to think covid is any worse than some of its relatives we are experienced with. . Well, yes, quite a few things cause inflammation, for example. Maybe not as many suppress the immune system quite so much in different ways - though there are diseases that are likely worse than Covid in this regard, notably AIDS, and obviously the bubonic plague was really bad. Covid, in targeting ACE2 cells, can cause damage to numerous other vital organs however. (It’s possibly early days regarding the profile, and to see the full effects down the line?) But it’s not an either/or for me, I’m worried about the other things too! And pollution, and possibly even cuckoo politics and its knock-on effects to our health! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 16:24:36 GMT
YG snap poll on Raab resigning. Even a majority of the CON x-break think "He was right to resign" (aka "keep his word") ? Raab's best interest lay in resigning, because otherwise Sunak would have eventually had to sack him. Its much easier to bring him back into cabinet if he was never sacked, because that would involve reversing a punishment given. this way, no punishment has been given. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 16:28:54 GMT
More "yeah but no, but yeah, but no" from LAB as Streeting U-turns
"Streeting said earlier this year a Labour government could “tear up the contract” with GPs, telling the Times: “I’m minded to phase out the whole system of GP partners altogether and look at salaried GPs working in modern practices alongside a range of other professionals.”Where as today: "Wes Streeting has declared that Labour has “absolutely no intention of nationalising GPs”labourlist.org/2023/04/labour-plan-nhs-nationalise-gps-reform-wes-streeting/U-turns when actually in govt can sometimes be called 'pragmatism' but when in opposition it really does come across as LAB not having a "Scooby Doo" (clue) what to do. PS As for not throwing money at the NHS then whilst I'd agree CON have done that then didn't some of the recent LAB attack ads pretty much say they'd copy CON with +10,000/yr nursing numbers (which obviously costs money - funded by stuff like hiking corporation tax, a Corbyn-LAB policy that Rishi-CON have delivered). Perhaps copying CON is why LAB haven't put a £billions number on scrapping 'non-doms' as either a/ they expect it will be 'net zero' and/or b/ they'll U-turn on that when in power (given some of the people effected might be LAB party donors). Vote NewLABv2 = Get Tory Plan B |
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Post by moby on Apr 21, 2023 16:30:22 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 16:35:38 GMT
Clear narrowing and whilst I still think the LEs will produce a PNS lead for Lab of 6-8%; below 5% which would be good for the Tories is possible. I took the view weeks ago that suggestions of 10%+ either where expectation management from Lab opponents or just simplistic extrapolation from the surface data from analysts or journalists. A lot will depend on turnout and who votes and doesn't vote. Those with postal votes tend to use them, and many of those are older and more conservative. We don't know for sure the impact of photo ID either. On the other hand any 'soft' Tories who want to protest the government without actually doing any real damage could chose to stay at home. Aggregate Labour voting totals tend to be lower due to Lib Dem and Green voting, whereas this doesn't affect the Conservatives in the same way now the UKIP factor has gone. My gut feel is a Labour national lead of c6%, but not based on anything in particular. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 16:41:52 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 16:45:12 GMT
The Conservatives didn't "deliver" 25% Corporation Tax because they wanted to, nor to fund investment. They did so because they blew up the economy in an insane experiment. An odd thing to claim as an achievement. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 16:45:43 GMT
'Rule of 4' complete as Savanta also show a narrowing:
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 16:49:45 GMT
barbara - well moby gave your post a like, wasn’t surprising, take this quote below of his to ptarmigan , key points put in bold… See the classic right wing approach: how the entirety of Corbyn’s program is dismissed out of hand as “radical” and not viable due to “economic realities”. The classic arguments of the right, even as we keep moving leftward in practic, showing that left wing policies are not only viable but essential. Price subsidies are no longer radical. Furlough no longer radical. Nationalising energy even favoured by many Tories now. Increasing use of state subsidy for business etc. Note too, the Liberal priority instead: the concern for equality of opportunity, which can accept a lot more inequality in practice. Whereas the left are often more concerned with equality of outcome. I see you only quoted me selectively. I never dismissed his programme out of hand. I was simply pointing out that although Corbyn's manifesto was radical it would have been constrained in practice by economic realities as Truss found out to her cost. I don't consider that a 'classic right wing approach'. I consider it an acknowledgement that we live in a capitalist western democracy in which market forces will influence economic decisions. Change can still happen but Corbyn's way wasn't going to work. He was always going to struggle to get a democratic mandate from what I could deduce. On the doorstep many people were telling me they thought it was fantasy politics and they were calling him 'magic grandpa'. Perhaps you were getting a different reception when you were canvassing? I posted the whole quote in its entirety. There were a couple more posts in the exchange with ptarmigan , neither of which involve backing specific policies and using some of them now; it maintains the general argument against all of them in practice. You don’t argue for keeping some of the policies, despite the popularity of some. You mentioned one specific policy in another post: It's about time housing was prioritised as a political issue. It's always been a political issue, the problem is most of us believe in or passively accept the concept of inherited wealth. Left to their own devices people, (even socialists) will always put their own families first and that simply means profit from the ownership of property tends to transfer down the generations through the bank of mum and dad. Then as soon as you get a mortgage you have a stake in the system yourself, you want to keep your job because that's how you repay the debt, you are less likely to strike or rock the boat for management at work, you'll just be grateful you have a job; you'll want to keep the banking system stable; you'll want a good school for your kids and of course you'll want your own family to eventually inherit from your graft. The only way you can really break this cycle is by taxing inherited wealth far more efficiently. In the 'property owning democracy' we have had for generations it would be political suicide to do this. Which is basically an acceptance of high house prices, also ignoring an alternative to inheritance tax: the left wing approach of increasing house building rather more. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2023 16:50:01 GMT
If you think that's scary wait 'til you see Trev's stare at Rishi...
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 16:50:18 GMT
I don't think it's naive to want a political party that you feel closely aligned with to present you with an attractive policy platform - that's surely what they're there for. Admittedly, all parties have to operate within certain broad parameters but I still believe folk of a LOC disposition should have an issue with the paucity of Labour's current offering because I think there's scope to be much bolder. This has been noted many times before, but a lot of Corbyn's policies were individually popular (renationalisations still are according to the polls). I would be genuinely interested to see how a political party standing on a Corbynite platform, but unencumbered by Corbyn baggage or Brexit-related issues, would fare. Sadly, we'll never find out because Starmer abandoned any pretence of offering that as soon as he won the leadership. … Attractive is not always credible though and despite the good ideas in the 2017 manifesto, it didn't pass scrutiny with an electorate who still elected the 'Maybot', who ran a pretty disastrous campaign. The comments I received on the doorstep regarding it were very sceptical. I was told again and again it wasn't costed and based in reality. As to your 'challenging narratives' 'tinkering' 'duplicitous' points I don't agree with your view of Starmer and certainly wouldn't see his behaviour in any way similar to the tories. I also think we all have our 'narratives' and our real job as party members is to make ours more deliverable to a public sceptical about politicians. Given that I don't think Starmers actually doing too badly. He's now on his third PM opponent and has a reasonable lead in the polls four years after an awful defeat. None of us who remained in my CLP after all the Corbynites left thought we'd stand any chance at all in 2024. A reduced Tory majority was the hope. Above is another in the exchange, your post quoted in full, where you dismiss the entire programme because May got a minority government. This is not a very compelling argument, as parties can lose even if policies are popular, e.g. if people don’t like the leader, or there’s a split party, competence issues, a split vote in the electorate etc. So you might indeed keep quite a few policies despite a loss, while fixing the other reasons the party lost. This is where polling on the policies themselves is useful, showing which are popular. (Like some nationalisations…) |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 16:53:58 GMT
Not sure if we'll get a People's Polling but summary of today's polling updates: YG: LAB 43% (-1), CON 28% (+2). LAB lead 15% (-3)Omnisis: LAB 47% (-1), CON 27% (+2). LAB lead 20% (-3)Tecne: LAB 44% (-1), CON 31% (+1). LAB lead 13% (-2)Savanta: LAB 45% (uc), CON 31% (+2). LAB lead 14% (-2)
Average being a further narrowing of 2.5%. Obviously still a long way to go but as well as CON feeling more upbeat then the "Red on Red" attacks might increase as the shine comes off Starmer-LAB and the LW-LAB seek revenge. 'Popcorn' at the ready  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 16:59:23 GMT
Not sure if we'll get a People's Polling but summary of today's polling updates: YG: LAB 43% (-1), CON 28% (+2). LAB lead 15% (-3)Omnisis: LAB 47% (-1), CON 27% (+2). LAB lead 20% (-3)Tecne: LAB 44% (-1), CON 31% (+1). LAB lead 13% (-2)Savanta: LAB 45% (uc), CON 31% (+2). LAB lead 14% (-2)
Average being a further narrowing of 2.5%. Obviously still a long way to go but as well as CON feeling more upbeat then the "Red on Red" attacks might increase as the shine comes off Starmer-LAB and the LW-LAB seek revenge. 'Popcorn' at the ready An average Labour lead of 15.5%, equating to a Labour majority of 158 on the new boundaries. Labour leads continue to be well in excess of those pre-Truss. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 16:59:58 GMT
If you seek to map it all, Covid has a number of attack vectors - via the ACE2 cells, via attacking the immune system, via inflammation etc. - and these are things that can in turn affect numerous parts of the body. Hence the concern. There are too many ways it can potentially get you, to just dismiss it in my view. Esp. as some damage can be hidden for a while, or attributed to something else. By the by, did you hear the recent report about viral RNA/DNA which is permanently incorporated in our body cells possibly being an important cause of cancer? Thereby raising th possibility of creating vaccination against specific DNA and possibly being able to treat cancer this way. The report didnt go on, but there must be a reason why this DNA has become incorporated into our cells. And there is probably some reason yet to be discovered how it can be beneficial to us. Viruses and ourselves have a lot in common. I’m not sure, sounds interesting and it rings a bell - I may have opened a tab on it somewhere but not sure if it’s the same thing, and there are many, many tabs Danny! If you still have the link feel free to post it though! |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 17:03:40 GMT
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Post by Mark on Apr 21, 2023 17:04:51 GMT
*** ADMIN ***
I have deleted a load of attachments. Some, I'm sorry to say have been fairly recent. Sadly, it doesn't show the dates in the list I delete them from and I went further recent than intended.
I apologise to anyone who may have had recent stuff attachments deleted.
The good news, though, is that because I deleted more than intended, we now have a fair bit of space again.
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Post by moby on Apr 21, 2023 17:09:03 GMT
If you think that's scary wait 'til you see Trev's stare at Rishi...
Probably has his bedroom done out like this:- youtu.be/5iFrVmCZzWM |
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2023 17:23:21 GMT
The incredible sulk Raab's argument is that it's radical lefty civil servants with their objection to undermining human rights and their attempts to mitigate the clustershambles of Brexit that have prevented more successes by him. An argument rather undermined by the fact that in seven years as a minister he has absolutely no tangible achievements at all. If of course you exclude uniting your civil servants in the knowledge that you're an arsehole. You have to wonder what alternative reality where they are marginally adequate these brexitania unhinged cultists actually inhabit.  |
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Post by alec on Apr 21, 2023 17:27:07 GMT
Danny - "There are other diseases which are know to have multiple roues of attack" Would be good if you sometimes, just sometimes, back up your assertions with some actual evidence. There are other diseases that do this kind of (like HIV) but they tend to be at the nastier end of viruses. Flu, for example, is nothing like as bad as covid in terms of the attack lines. "We have all had it, the damage or lack thereof is already done." Again, just plain wrong and very silly. Firstly, quite a lot of us have not had it. I've seen reasonable estimates that around 20% remain uninfected, and that wouldn't surprise me in the least, given the numbers of covid cautious people out there. Second, you've clearly not read the multiple papers I've posted that detail the increased risk from repeat infections. While I don't like to draw such parallels as a rule, AIDs was written off by minimizers in the early days, based largely on the fact that the acute infection was 'just a bit of a cold', and there was initial resistance to the linking of catastrophic effects many years after infection. They also wrote off AIDs as something that only affected some ignorable minorities, something I'm seeing every day with covid. So no, you cannot make any such statements. The best you can say is we don't yet know.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 17:36:39 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - thanks for your support. I do find the reasoning behind the minimizing of covid quite bizarre, as well as being largely ignorant of the science. Hiding behind the fact that a top ten cause of death (which is largely preventable anyway) is no longer an issue, because it isn't the top cause of death is just daft. I still maintain a confidence that we will get this sorted and end up in a better place all round, but at times it is tough to be at all optimistic when you see the stupidity all around. The correlations are very clear though. Yes, there was a long term trend in declining health service metrics caused by government spending, but in 2020 everything went through the roof, and since then the metrics have matched the prevalence of covid. This includes excess deaths, which remain shockingly high. This morning we've had another paper that proves the presence of replicable sars-cov2 in hospital treatment room air, yet all over the country we're being told staff don't need to wear masks anymore. At this point I wanted to add a picture showing a man in a bakery loading cakes into a box while wearing a facemask. It's normal in the food prep industry, but, it seems, just too much for our health care workers. We care more about cakes than sick people, it seems. Well, there are obviously some in the medical community on a similar page, but it can take a while to percolate through. When I was researching the immune system in the early days of the pandemic, and was looking into more recent research like epigenetics and the innate system, and wondered how long it might take for such stuff to filter down, and did read it can take years, more than a decade. My op years ago came back to haunt me some years later with some knock-on effects, and I figured some bits out for myself and then had to dig around to find other stuff to (mostly) fix the problem, but even now years later, quite a lot of it isn’t such common Knowledge. Sometimes with enough of a push the uptake can be obviously a lot quicker though, e.g. the doctors who drew attention to how Covid patients appeared to be showing signs of hypoxia, akin to altitude sickness, hence ventilators should be used more sparingly. But with something like air purification of course, it isn’t necessarily just doctors who have to be convinced. |
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Raab's stare at Starmer says a lot:-
