pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 12:28:07 GMT
I'm coming to the conclusion that those of us who are ABCON and those who think they need to be wooed by a party that will say it will deliver their Christmas present list have brains that are wired very differently. That was exactly my point, and I'm glad that you can at least agree with it. I don't hold the view that Conservatives are deluded and demonic - for the most part they are acting in the public interest as they see it, even if in my view their sight is distorted. I don't think the present Labour party is promoting the public interest either as they see it, or in my view at all. The Conservatives aren't deluded (with one exception I'll come to), they know exactly what they are doing. Osborne knew what he was doing when he announced an ideological target to shrink the size of the state to pre-WWII levels (when the NHS did not exist) and pretended it was necessary for economic reasons Johnson knew what he was doing when he lied that he had an 'oven-ready' Brexit deal to win an election when he had nothing of the sort and so screwed up Northern Ireland in the process. The Tories know exactly what they were doing when they channel vast sums of public money to people like Michelle Mone for non-usable PPE; They know what they are doing when they stuff the House of Lords, the Equalities Commission and the BBC full of cronies; They know what they are doing when they change electoral systems and voting rules to favour their own party. They know what they are doing when they demonise vulnerable minorities like migrants and Trans people for votes I could go on and on giving examples; all you need to do is follow the news. The exception is that I don't think Truss and Kwarteng knew what they were doing when they blew £40bn on their mad budget. None of this stuff is remotely in the public interest, although it is certainly in the interest of the Conservative Party, its donors and the friends and family of its MPs and peers. This is the most rotten, venal, corrupt, extreme government in the last 100 years and it has done enormous damage to the country. I'm amazed you can't see that. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 12:28:49 GMT
This is all nonsense. I voted for Corbyn as I was a member in 2010. I was energised by his views and thought it would be refreshing to have a leader more from the left. It took about 3 months for me to realise that he was supremely unsuited to the role of leader of anything and was in despair about the future of the party under him and also some of his clearly useless cabinet colleagues. I still voted Labour in both 2017 and 2019 and I'm quite sure that lots of others did in a vain attempt to minimise the damage of Brexit more than anything else. Corbyn was never going to be PM. After the debacle of Corbyn I've had it with ideologues. I want a Labour Party that will persuade non Labour voters to put it into power and I simply don't care who that is. The Tories have and continue to wreak havoc on this country and I would vote for a toy monkey on a stick if I thought it would stop them from winning in 2024. I may rail against what I perceive as attempts of the Labour left to put principle before electability but I was also enthused by Corbyn initially. It's not his policies I ever had a problem with but presentation and ability to get them past an innately sceptical electorate at the mercy of a highly manipulative right wing media that you don't need to give much ammunition to for them to cause trouble. I happily voted for Labour under Corbyn in 17 and 19 and if he were still leader now I'd do it again. I think the issue of the media is a valid issue. Have made the point myself before now. A little while back, you also made the point about not been keen on Corbyn re: NATO stance. This is also fair enough. However, the point is that many of Corbyn’s ideas are not radical, some are quite centrist. So if someone then really wanted left-wing policies, then the debate ought to be about things like how much can be gotten past the media, how much the media might now accept. How much the media might be disregarded if policies are successful.* For example, lately even the more right-wing media tend to accept left wing things like QE, furlough, price subsidies etc. and nowadays, even the Guardian is pro-nationalisations. In practice the right stick to promoting Liberal concerns, and how they can be brought about, e.g. rejoin, that’s what they really want. * some of the right wing press weren’t keen on Tories using some more left wing approaches but they don’t complain so much since they worked. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 12:43:42 GMT
There it is again. You’ll keep attacking the left and say they should stick to attacking the Tories, but not give the same level of stick to the right in the party when they attack the left. The right aren't currently colluding with the Tories. In 2016-17 they were and I wasn't happy about that either. My wish is for a Labour Party that is united and focused 100% on beating the Tories and getting into power regardless of who is running it at the time. As domjg points out, without power you can do nothing. The Tories understand that, which is why they keep winning. Well someone might be colluding on Twitter but the left in here aren’t. The issue is not just 2016/17 but the left are still being attacked, when the focus could be on Tories, and the policies dismissed as purist even as more are being adopted out of necessity. I think you have a point about the power thing, and it’s pretty obvious that some Liberals have sought to join Labour because they have more power than Lib Dems. But it’s possible to exert power without being elected, as UKIP showed, and even Corbyn saw Tories have to start considering more left wing stuff, though with Starmer they have been able to relax on that. |
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Post by shevii on Apr 21, 2023 12:47:35 GMT
British Electoral Politics
@electpoliticsuk
·
1h
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 43% (-2)
CON: 28% (+1)
LDM: 10% (=)
REF: 7% (+1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Via
@yougov
,
Changes w/ 12-13 April.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 21, 2023 12:56:17 GMT
Oh those Russians......https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65344370 Does anyone think the mobile phone alert test taking place this Sunday is the first hint of civil defence preparations in case of escalation of the Ukraine war (ie after the counter offensive starts)? On the other hand it could just be catching up, the Germans have been doing this kind of disaster testing for years. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Apr 21, 2023 12:56:59 GMT
That was exactly my point, and I'm glad that you can at least agree with it. I don't hold the view that Conservatives are deluded and demonic - for the most part they are acting in the public interest as they see it, even if in my view their sight is distorted. I don't think the present Labour party is promoting the public interest either as they see it, or in my view at all. The Conservatives aren't deluded (with one exception I'll come to), they know exactly what they are doing. Osborne knew what he was doing when he announced an ideological target to shrink the size of the state to pre-WWII levels (when the NHS did not exist) and pretended it was necessary for economic reasons Johnson knew what he was doing when he lied that he had an 'oven-ready' Brexit deal to win an election when he had nothing of the sort and so screwed up Northern Ireland in the process. The Tories know exactly what they were doing when they channel vast sums of public money to people like Michelle Mone for non-usable PPE; They know what they are doing when they stuff the House of Lords, the Equalities Commission and the BBC full of cronies; They know what they are doing when they change electoral systems and voting rules to favour their own party. They know what they are doing when they demonise vulnerable minorities like migrants and Trans people for votes I could go on and on giving examples; all you need to do is follow the news. The exception is that I don't think Truss and Kwarteng knew what they were doing when they blew £40bn on their mad budget. None of this stuff is remotely in the public interest, although it is certainly in the interest of the Conservative Party, its donors and the friends and family of its MPs and peers. This is the most rotten, venal, corrupt, extreme government in the last 100 years and it has done enormous damage to the country. I'm amazed you can't see that. I was never a Corbynite - in 2015 I voted for Yvette Cooper for the leadership - and always felt him to be unsuited for the Leader role. Nevertheless Labour did make significant gains in 2017 with a very sharp increase in its vote share. He did manage to push the Overton window to the left, and this was reflected in the subsequent policy responses of Theresa May and Boris Johnson. The latter -in particular, adopted a much more Heseltinian and pragmatic approach to State intervention and showed scant concern for high levels of Public Borrowing.As a result Labour should be much more emboldened in its willingness to commit to high spending on its favoured projects - being presented with Johnson's recent precedents. What I find totally unforgiveable is how Starmer - instead of building on that post 2017 movement- has squandered that Overton window shift and is now openly competing with Sunak to reverse shift that window back to the Right. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 12:59:02 GMT
But you don't prevent it. All you do is get increasingly right wing Tory governments forever. You will note that core Tory voters (say c30-33% of the population) happily voted for Cameron's 2010 social liberalism and Johnson's 2019 populist authoritarianism without all this angst, indeed likely without even a second thought. They vote Tory regardless of what it is offering at the time. That's the reality that has to be overcome. Just to say as a footnote, that the real villain here is FPTP. Under a PR system everyone could vote exactly as they thought best and know their vote has a chance of counting. , I have a lot of sympathy with shevii on this. What slightly baffles me is that the Tory's manage their 'right-wing' in a manner that tends to keep those types of voters on board, adopting policies from that wing of the party that in many areas have broader electoral appeal. Many of the positions held by the left are similarly popular with the electorate, but you don't currently see the Starmer leadership adopting them, to the contrary they seem to be jettisoning them.
Prior to the 80/90's the Party and its leadership did a relatively better job in managing the relationship with the left; but since then there seems to be a Madelsonian obsession, held by many on the right of the party, that you can only win by attacking the left. Personally, I think it is counter-productive and plays into the hands of the Tories.The problem is that while the right of the party affect to be left wing, they are actually fundamentally opposed to much left wing policy, especially economic policy. The right adopt an everyday typical Liberal position*: they are for public services, which the left agree on,** but then they are very pro-capital and opposed to the left on key matters such as nationalisations, subsidies, capital controls, full employment, affordable housing etc. etc. some of the opposition is disguised by joining trade zones which bakes in right wing economics so don’t have to keep campaigning for it. But in these key things, they are actually closer to the Tories, which is why the priority is to suppress the left first, then go after Tories. They know the left wing policies are popular and effective, they kept Liberals out of the frame for ages. (That’s why they had to join Labour instead. Many have long been hostile to left wing economic policy, that’s why SDP broke away and trashed Labour polling when Foot was riding high in the polls before Falklands happened). (They are also not mad keen on the revival of working class unions: mention that and they’ll complain it’s going back to the Seventies. But with the exception of some Third Way bits, New Labour was like going back even further. And middle class strikes are ok, apparently!) * there are other variants but perhaps rather less common in the wild ** hence that’s what the right focus on, public services, while trying to sidestep all the stuff they agree with the Tories on, and the inequality their policies might accept |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 13:01:34 GMT
I agree its insane doctors pay has slipped so much. However various media reports have suggested the working conditions are at least as important. Pay can only partially compensate for over working anyone. That's true- pay is the headline thing but working conditions are just as important (especially if you live in cheaper areas of the country). But without pay as a starting point you don't set in train a course of events leading to where the NHS isn't understaffed because it's a signal that you are respected and that there is hope for the future it will get fixed. Without vacancies then many of the quality of life issues go away so pay remains key to this I think. I noticed that junior doctors have had disproportionately larger increases than senior. This also seems to apply to teaching, and presumably other areas. I suspect this is a recognition that if you can entice people in, there's more chance they will continue, and they wont realise initially that prospects for advancement arent there any more. Dont know if this is hollowing out the NHS in terms of experienced staff, i seem to recall some independent report on the NHS alluded to an odd balance of people at various pay rates which they thought didn't make sense. A shortage of middle ranked people with decent length of experience. its certainly true that teachers are losing out in terms of career advancement and its true there is a shortage of higher paid posts they can move to with experience. Maybe that also reflects that teaching has become a largely female dominated profession, something people can enter late after having children. A group of people who are maybe looking for a relativeley decent starting salary and dont expect to rise through the ranks with time.
This tactic of paying higher starting salaries seems to be a trick to mask services which are heading towards collapse because they cannot then retain staff.
i noticed some state educators being interviewed who said that teachers coming from private schools and applying to state schools tend to be turned down, giving this as a reason. State salaries tend to be higher and so initially attractive, but once you start to experience the regular workload and abuse from kids, it becomes very unattractive and i can see why such people are likely to leave again quickly.
An anecdote. an experienced teacher applied for a job recently at a local state school, and was turned down. One reason given was that their previous job was in a private school. Another was they wanted to be on too high a pay scale, ie the school was looking for cheap inexperienced staff.
We now discovere that two of the three people on the interview panel of that state school have since resigned their own posts, leaving two additional vacanices to be filled in that department.
There seems a lot of consensus that working in a state school as a teacher is frequently a pretty horrible experience. There are of course good and bad state schools. But unlike the private sector, they have no incentive to maintain minimum standards, to counterbalance management needs for economy. kids will arrive through the door each year, and will be managed as well or badly as the staff are able. If that means the main target is avoid any deaths or serious injuries, then so be it.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 13:03:05 GMT
The right aren't currently colluding with the Tories. In 2016-17 they were and I wasn't happy about that either. My wish is for a Labour Party that is united and focused 100% on beating the Tories and getting into power regardless of who is running it at the time. As domjg points out, without power you can do nothing. The Tories understand that, which is why they keep winning. Well someone might be colluding on Twitter but the left in here aren’t. The issue is not just 2016/17 but the left are still being attacked, when the focus could be on Tories, and the policies dismissed as purist even as more are being adopted out of necessity. I think you have a point about the power thing, and it’s pretty obvious that some Liberals have sought to join Labour because they have more power than Lib Dems. But it’s possible to exert power without being elected, as UKIP showed, and even Corbyn saw Tories have to start considering more left wing stuff, though with Starmer they have been able to relax on that. "Well someone might be colluding on Twitter but the left in here aren’t." - Yes, fair enough, I didn't mean to imply they were (apart from providing Trevor, Mercian and Colin with a little pleasure, but that doesn't matter). I had clicked on the link that was posted to the twitter feed and noted the self-satisfaction of various self-proclaimed left wingers that they were helping the Tories defeat the hated Starmer, and when you work in the NHS and see the impact of under-funding every day and are campaigning in the local elections to get Labour Councillors elected against the odds, then suffering attack from your own side is bloody frustrating - hence my annoyance. "It’s possible to exert power without being elected, as UKIP showed, and even Corbyn saw Tories have to start considering more left wing stuff" - that sound like the role of a pressure group not a political party and alternative government. If that is the limit of Labour's aspirations it might as well give up on parliamentary politics. I want to see a change of government, not just influence the Tories. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2023 13:04:00 GMT
Kafkaesque in which our heroic foreign Secretary found himself transformed into a sun bed forced to await the reopening of the eastern Mediterranean.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Apr 21, 2023 13:05:43 GMT
wb61 Well at least 6 days! Haha, like Suella Braverman, booted out on the 19th October, 2022 and back behind the desk on the 25th October, 2022. So quickly I'm impressed she wasn't dizzy. What a wonderful system of government we have with so many sound people in control. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 13:08:02 GMT
For the forthcoming local elections my ward has had its boundary changed, and we can now vote for 3 candidates. There are 3 Lib Dems, 3 Tory, 1 Green and 1 Labour candidates standing. I think that probably the 3 Lib Dems will be elected. However I'm inclined to vote for 1 Lib Dem, 1 Green and 1 Labour candidate in an attempt to get some representation for Green and Labour - however I'm afraid if a lot of people do this it could let the Tories in. Any suggestions? You should of course vote for whoever you want to run your local district/borough council but you highlight a 'problem' with the multi-member wards when all the councillors are elected via FPTP in one go (which sounds like your situation). Taking your example then Green and LAB might be running 1 candidate, each hoping to appeal to enough people to back their single candidate as one of their three votes (eg as you are considering). However, LDEM are not 'playing ball' and going for the clean sweep of all 3 candidates. The risk, as you highlight, is that LDEM don't end up winning all 3 seats and potentially via split vote 'enable' CON to win all three seats. Of course if LDEM think they will easily win all three then 'fair enough'. There are lots of different approaches used by different LEs but I note the Mole Valley District Council elections run as 1/3rds (ie not all in one go). If you only actually have one vote then check the results from your ward (quite possibly 'safe' LDEM) and vote accordingly for the best placed ABCON (which is probably LDEM in your polity) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Mole_Valley_District_Council_election |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 21, 2023 13:08:33 GMT
wb61 Well at least 6 days! Haha, like Suella Braverman, booted out on the 19th October, 2022 and back behind the desk on the 25th October, 2022. So quickly I'm impressed she wasn't dizzy. What a wonderful system of government we have with so many sound people in control. It should have been very apparent to all concerned that the fact that this was happening was an indication something was deeply amiss at the top level of government. |
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Post by barbara on Apr 21, 2023 13:11:53 GMT
That was exactly my point, and I'm glad that you can at least agree with it. I don't hold the view that Conservatives are deluded and demonic - for the most part they are acting in the public interest as they see it, even if in my view their sight is distorted. I don't think the present Labour party is promoting the public interest either as they see it, or in my view at all. The Conservatives aren't deluded (with one exception I'll come to), they know exactly what they are doing. Osborne knew what he was doing when he announced an ideological target to shrink the size of the state to pre-WWII levels (when the NHS did not exist) and pretended it was necessary for economic reasons Johnson knew what he was doing when he lied that he had an 'oven-ready' Brexit deal to win an election when he had nothing of the sort and so screwed up Northern Ireland in the process. The Tories know exactly what they were doing when they channel vast sums of public money to people like Michelle Mone for non-usable PPE; They know what they are doing when they stuff the House of Lords, the Equalities Commission and the BBC full of cronies; They know what they are doing when they change electoral systems and voting rules to favour their own party. They know what they are doing when they demonise vulnerable minorities like migrants and Trans people for votes I could go on and on giving examples; all you need to do is follow the news. The exception is that I don't think Truss and Kwarteng knew what they were doing when they blew £40bn on their mad budget. None of this stuff is remotely in the public interest, although it is certainly in the interest of the Conservative Party, its donors and the friends and family of its MPs and peers. This is the most rotten, venal, corrupt, extreme government in the last 100 years and it has done enormous damage to the country. I'm amazed you can't see that. A thousand upticks and likes. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 13:12:18 GMT
Well someone might be colluding on Twitter but the left in here aren’t. The issue is not just 2016/17 but the left are still being attacked, when the focus could be on Tories, and the policies dismissed as purist even as more are being adopted out of necessity. I think you have a point about the power thing, and it’s pretty obvious that some Liberals have sought to join Labour because they have more power than Lib Dems. But it’s possible to exert power without being elected, as UKIP showed, and even Corbyn saw Tories have to start considering more left wing stuff, though with Starmer they have been able to relax on that. "Well someone might be colluding on Twitter but the left in here aren’t." - Yes, fair enough, I didn't mean to imply they were (apart from providing Trevor, Mercian and Colin with a little pleasure, but that doesn't matter). I had clicked on the link that was posted to the twitter feed and noted the self-satisfaction of various self-proclaimed left wingers that they were helping the Tories defeat the hated Starmer, and when you work in the NHS and see the impact of under-funding every day and are campaigning in the local elections to get Labour Councillors elected against the odds, then suffering attack from your own side is bloody frustrating - hence my annoyance. "It’s possible to exert power without being elected, as UKIP showed, and even Corbyn saw Tories have to start considering more left wing stuff" - that sound like the role of a pressure group not a political party and alternative government. If that is the limit of Labour's aspirations it might as well give up on parliamentary politics. I want to see a change of government, not just influence the Tories. Yes, I can understand your concern re: Twitter, though the left are still being attacked within the party and so they might fight back. Regarding the pressure group thing, obviously UKIP were going after a specific objective, then could unwind, but for others it can start by exerting influence but then attain power later. That’s how Labour wound up being in power in fact, as oldnat pointed out the other day. Would you argue Labour shouldn’t have bothered when they were just a small party? Some Labourites might still be in the Liberals otherwise! |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2023 13:17:53 GMT
Absolutely. How one person could be so outrageously talented in so many areas as "The Master" is astonishing. Playwright, composer, lyricist, actor, singer, producer, director etc. In this particular case, ('Bad times just around the corner'), the rhyming of 'Kettering' with 'rather vulgar lettering' is a gem that has made me laugh since I first heard it 50 years ago or more. Or: "It was just those nasty Nazis who persuaded them to fight and their Beethoven and Bach are surely far worse than their bite" "Let's be sweet to them and day by day repeat to them that sterilisation simply isn't done." ""The shrieks and wails of the Yorkshire Dales have even depressed the sheep" ' Or from Nina from Argentina who wouldn't dance: "She refused to begin the beguine when they besought her to, and in language profane and obscene she cursed the man who taught her to, she cursed Cole Porter too." Magnificent beyond belief. Well quite. I'm going to be unavoidably recalling all manner of his work for the rest of the day now! I promise to fight it, but I can't resist this delicious little morsel. On the occasion of Gertrude Lawrence's marriage to Robert Aldrich, he sent this telegram: "Dear Mrs A., Hooray! Hooray! At last you are deflowered. On this, as any other day, I love you. Noel Coward." Genius. |
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Post by pete on Apr 21, 2023 13:22:02 GMT
By far the most perverse thing about this forum is that the majority of posters seem to think it's quite ok for Starmer to conduct a factional war against the left; it's ok to do the most provocative things from preventing the former leader from standing, vetting candidates to exclude left wingers and conducting a purge against left-wing members, and yet people are appalled when there's a backlash to this? You cannot systematically alienate a substantial chunk of your core support and expect them to blithely roll over and accept it "because the Tories". Besides, if Starmer's marginalising the left because he thinks it's politically advantageous, his backers can hardly complain when folk on the left bite back - if it's politically a good thing to sideline the left then their criticisms shouldn't matter and it shouldn't dent Labour's electoral prospects. Frankly, Starmer's been dealt such an easy hand compared to his predecessor. Corbyn, as well as having Brexit as an electoral issue, had to contend with MPs constantly briefing against him, them resigning en masse, a leadership challenge, being actively undermined by Labour HQ in two general election campaigns as well as an extremely hostile media. Starmer's got, what impediments, exactly? Left Twitter? If they're making any headway it's because it's exceptionally easy to portray Starmer as the dishonest chancer that he is. Bottom line is people rightly don't like or trust the Labour leader, those calling the shots in Labour HQ, and acolytes such as Reeves and Streeting. No amount of "but the Tories" protestations are going to change that but an attractive policy offering could help get people back into the Labour fold. Unfortunately they jettisoned that too and seem happy to solely court right-wing votes, so it's rather difficult to see what the point of them actually is. The difference is some of us still voted Corbyn even though we knew what a weak pathetic leader he was. His policies (2017) may have been good but it wasn't right-wingers of the Labour party that did for him it he himself and his history of being a debater not a leader that did for him, that a right-wing press who really went for him. (same Ed and soon Starmer, the difference being twitter is larger these days and Labour have more professional people in control and not the school boy rabble Corbyn employed). |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2023 13:27:26 GMT
The right of the party put purity over power, sabotaging Corbyn. They’re still trying to get rid of what remains of the left even now. This is all nonsense. I voted for Corbyn as I was a member in 2010. I was energised by his views and thought it would be refreshing to have a leader more from the left. It took about 3 months for me to realise that he was supremely unsuited to the role of leader of anything and was in despair about the future of the party under him and also some of his clearly useless cabinet colleagues. I still voted Labour in both 2017 and 2019 and I'm quite sure that lots of others did in a vain attempt to minimise the damage of Brexit more than anything else. Corbyn was never going to be PM.After the debacle of Corbyn I've had it with ideologues. I want a Labour Party that will persuade non Labour voters to put it into power and I simply don't care who that is. The Tories have and continue to wreak havoc on this country and I would vote for a toy monkey on a stick if I thought it would stop them from winning in 2024. I remember before the '19 GE, there was speculation that there might be an attempt to install JC as caretaker Prime Minister for an interim period prior to the election. When this thought was put to him, Geoff Norcott, (that rare bird, a RoC stand up comedian), said "Well I think he could do one of those jobs". |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 13:28:56 GMT
British Electoral Politics @electpoliticsuk · 1h Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 28% (+1) LDM: 10% (=) REF: 7% (+1) GRN: 6% (+1) SNP: 2% (-1) Via @yougov , Changes w/ 12-13 April. Do you/anyone happen to know how they got that polling info? It's not on YG's twitter and we usually end up having to wait best part of a week to see the tables but clearly YG run a weekly poll and have the results each Friday. I appreciate the Times probably wants 'exclusivity' (as per Observer and Opinium) but that is clearly not happening with at least the headline VI. Should get Omnisis and People Polling later today but on the two weekly updates so far then 'further narrowing' is clearly visible - for those what wish to see it that is.  |
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2023 13:29:11 GMT
Oliver Dowden the new Deputy Prime Minister.
Dowden known by many as who? Has adopted a cloak of invisibility and irrelevance that the residents of Hogwarts would be proud of.
Perfect empty vessel for the job.
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Post by shevii on Apr 21, 2023 13:42:10 GMT
Article by Rob Ford on potentials for tactical voting: swingometer.substack.com/p/tactical-voting-how-much-can-the?r=8jnjk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webHe's working off UNS and a minority (just) Labour government (pre tactical voting and using a 10% swing UNS) and I was a little surprised how little, OK 40 seats if you took the extreme end of cleaning up the 3rd party vote, that there were. He also makes the point that the higher Lab lead to begin with (ie lower Con percentage) the better the tactical voting scenario becomes. There's always a more or less fixed floor for a 3rd party vote, the Labour floor higher than the LD floor IMHO so some seats may come up against that and it might take a couple of elections for voters to appreciate how close things are but I found it interesting that he has put a range on the impact of possible tactical voting. |
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Post by shevii on Apr 21, 2023 13:45:08 GMT
Do you/anyone happen to know how they got that polling info? It's not on YG's twitter and we usually end up having to wait best part of a week to see the tables but clearly YG run a weekly poll and have the results each Friday. I appreciate the Times probably wants 'exclusivity' (as per Observer and Opinium) but that is clearly not happening with at least the headline VI. Should get Omnisis and People Polling later today but on the two weekly updates so far then 'further narrowing' is clearly visible - for those what wish to see it that is. Sorry no- it just came up on my feed. I was a tiny bit dubious because of the pattern you mentioned of being a week late but the results are at least conceivable (even if leaked) and not anything that would look like they would make a big headline over, plus presumably a valid twitter account. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 13:51:35 GMT
Do you/anyone happen to know how they got that polling info? It's not on YG's twitter and we usually end up having to wait best part of a week to see the tables but clearly YG run a weekly poll and have the results each Friday. I appreciate the Times probably wants 'exclusivity' (as per Observer and Opinium) but that is clearly not happening with at least the headline VI. Should get Omnisis and People Polling later today but on the two weekly updates so far then 'further narrowing' is clearly visible - for those what wish to see it that is. Sorry no- it just came up on my feed. I was a tiny bit dubious because of the pattern you mentioned of being a week late but the results are at least conceivable (even if leaked) and not anything that would look like they would make a big headline over, plus presumably a valid twitter account. I expect the numbers are genuine but was just curious why some weeks the 'headline VI' is 'leaked' (or otherwise obtainable via 'unofficial' YG sources) and some weeks it isn't. Nothing 'sinister' but heading into the LEs then folks are curious to see those tables and see 'WHY' the lead is narrowing. The two most likely options being: 1/ More of the CON'19->LAB VI is 'coming home' 2/ The differential in the DKs is narrowing (which could: CON'19 DKs going down; LAB'19 DKs going up; a bit of both) NB For DKs then should also include changes in WNV and LTV but the DKs has drawn the most attention of those that are then 'removed' from the headline VI with likes of YG. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 14:02:07 GMT
Oliver Dowden the new Deputy Prime Minister. Dowden known by many as who? Has adopted a cloak of invisibility and irrelevance that the residents of Hogwarts would be proud of. Perfect empty vessel for the job. While it is true that Dowden has risen without trace, he is still a member of the current administration so there is bound to be something to dislike. In his case it is that he is the king of the fake "anti-woke" agenda. You may recall a flurry of controversy over this: "During his time as Co-Chairman (of the Conservative Party), Dowden continued to be identified with the controversy over 'woke culture'. On 14 February 2022, Dowden gave a speech in the USA to The Heritage Foundation in which he criticised cancel culture, calling it a "painful woke psychodrama" which is sweeping the West and sapping its confidence, further saying that woke ideology is a "dangerous form of decadence"." |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 14:18:37 GMT
PJ’s use of data is a bit scary too. Like when he cites data saying Cancer, Cardiovascular are worse than Covid, without taking into account your prior point that Covid may cause or exacerbate such things, and it may feed through worse in future. Alec has been unable to produce any evidence that this is happening. If you take certain datasets of people who have had bad covid, you find higher risks for other diseases.
This is the problem of relying mostly on stats on things like infection and death rates. (An issue which I think alec also became aware of, possibly in part due to chats with his partner, who researches quantum mechanics) pjw1961 talked about listening to the statisticians, others have talked about going by what the epidemiologists say, which can be pretty much the same thing. Which is fine, but it’s not enough. If you go more into the hard science and also look at how the virus operates, then you can see why you might get more heart, lung, brain issues etc. due to Covid. That’s why I piled into stuff like about ACE2 receptors, to see which organs would likely be more affected. Why I checked out how well the tests worked in practice - remember the autopsy study I posted? (The brain scans alec posted were rather worrying too!) If you seek to map it all, Covid has a number of attack vectors - via the ACE2 cells, via attacking the immune system, via inflammation etc. - and these are things that can in turn affect numerous parts of the body. Hence the concern. There are too many ways it can potentially get you, to just dismiss it in my view. Esp. as some damage can be hidden for a while, or attributed to something else. |
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Post by James E on Apr 21, 2023 14:27:45 GMT
Article by Rob Ford on potentials for tactical voting: swingometer.substack.com/p/tactical-voting-how-much-can-the?r=8jnjk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webHe's working off UNS and a minority (just) Labour government (pre tactical voting and using a 10% swing UNS) and I was a little surprised how little, OK 40 seats if you took the extreme end of cleaning up the 3rd party vote, that there were. He also makes the point that the higher Lab lead to begin with (ie lower Con percentage) the better the tactical voting scenario becomes. There's always a more or less fixed floor for a 3rd party vote, the Labour floor higher than the LD floor IMHO so some seats may come up against that and it might take a couple of elections for voters to appreciate how close things are but I found it interesting that he has put a range on the impact of possible tactical voting. It's an interesting enough article, but I'd query his use of UNS when there are very good reasons to expect a proportionate rather than uniform swing. He also states that "But this also reflects a real feature of the current polling landscape - right now, the big change since 2019 is a large swing from Conservative to Labour, with the Lib Dems treading water in national polls." This really isn't so, as the LDs actually have a lower 2019 vote retention than the Tories, but are picking up a few votes from other parties so as to be on 10% in the polls, as opposed to 11.8% in 2019. Looking at the cross-breaks, they appear to be losing betwenn 25-40% of their 2019 voters to Labour, with 3% of 2019Lab going the other way. This needs to be taken into account, particularly for seats where both parties may be in contnention. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 21, 2023 14:44:33 GMT
Omnisus poll
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Post by jimjam on Apr 21, 2023 14:57:56 GMT
Clear narrowing and whilst I still think the LEs will produce a PNS lead for Lab of 6-8%; below 5% which would be good for the Tories is possible.
I took the view weeks ago that suggestions of 10%+ were either expectation management from Lab opponents or just simplistic extrapolation from the surface data from analysts or journalists.
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Post by JohnC on Apr 21, 2023 15:02:49 GMT
Oh those Russians......https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65344370 Does anyone think the mobile phone alert test taking place this Sunday is the first hint of civil defence preparations in case of escalation of the Ukraine war (ie after the counter offensive starts)? On the other hand it could just be catching up, the Germans have been doing this kind of disaster testing for years. I think we can be overly cynical and it is just the latter. Many countries already have such systems. It has proved very useful in Japan with its many natural disasters. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2023 15:03:58 GMT
pjw1961I must admit I was overwhelmed with excitement at the announcement of Oliver Dowden as Deputy prime minister. The most excitement I've had since finding out that the recycling centre now accepts rigid plastics.
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