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Post by graham on Mar 29, 2023 10:04:40 GMT
Talk about missing the big picture. The future of the country is more important than your own sense of personal betrayal. Grow up. Perhaps it is a shame Labour did not lose the Batley & Spen by election in mid-2021. I have no idea who would be Labour Leader now had that happened , but I doubt that it would be Starmer. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Mar 29, 2023 10:07:28 GMT
Some interesting analysis from Rob Ford as to why the Conservative Party doesn't seem to be benefiting from Sunak's improved personal polling.
In summary "All the wrong people are cheering"
, I seem to recall that a similar trend happened with Major, where he tended to get reasonable good polling above that of his party. Wasn't enough to stave off defeat. |
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Post by graham on Mar 29, 2023 10:20:48 GMT
The 2022 Local Elections in Islington North were-
LAB 53.2% (-4.1)
🟢 GRN 29.3% (+6.9)
🟠 LD 8.9% (-1.3)
🔵 CON 7.3% (+1.1)
I suspect that Corbyn would pick up the bulk of the Green vote plus a big chunk of the Labour vote. Not difficult to see him polling 45%.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 29, 2023 10:27:19 GMT
Talk about missing the big picture. The future of the country is more important than your own sense of personal betrayal. Grow up. I can only suggest that you take your own advice re-the big picture. There are quite a few of us who are not attracted by a programme of Bland Blairism coupled with more than a touch of authoritarian Stalinism.
Bland Blairism is probably not what we'll get but I think a lot of the children who got a better start in life through Bland Blairism that they certainly wouldn't have under the Tories would quibble that it was that bland. Doing stuff under the tabloid radar is sometimes necessary in this country alas, alas. It would be nice if social justice could be shouted from the rooftops by a British government but the poison in our media will not allow it. There are not enough of those who think like you to make anything like an electoral difference as the Labour party has no doubt calculated whereas not scaring erstwhile floating voters (who are easily scared and have a lot of people just itching for any opportunity to scare them) has a lot of mileage in it. |
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Post by graham on Mar 29, 2023 10:29:58 GMT
I can only suggest that you take your own advice re-the big picture. There are quite a few of us who are not attracted by a programme of Bland Blairism coupled with more than a touch of authoritarian Stalinism.
Bland Blairism is probably not what we'll get but I think a lot of the children who got a better start in life through Bland Blairism that they certainly wouldn't have under the Tories would quibble that it was that bland. Doing stuff under the tabloid radar is sometimes necessary in this country alas, alas. It would be nice if social justice could be shouted from the rooftops by a British government but the poison in our media will not allow it. There are not enough of those who think like you (alas again) to make anything like an electoral difference as the Labour party has no doubt calculated whereas not scaring erstwhile floating voters (who are easily scared and have a lot of people just itching for any opportunity to scare them) has a lot of mileage in it. Well in Islington North the choice presented could well be between Corbyn and a Starmer Stalinist. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 29, 2023 10:32:40 GMT
Well I've given up on ever finding my perfect electoral partner. Never thought Id be one just to 'settle'. Starmer seems reliable, a bit boring but stable. Hope he doesn't break my heart! Perhaps it is a shame Labour did not lose the Batley & Spen by election in mid-2021. I have no idea who would be Labour Leader now had that happened , but I doubt that it would be Starmer. If you keep following that logic then could end up wishing the Tories win the next election so that he resigns.. Meanwhile the country suffers gravely and maybe the NHS hits the point of no return.. but that's ok because you feel Starmer got what he deserved. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 29, 2023 10:36:23 GMT
Talk about missing the big picture. The future of the country is more important than your own sense of personal betrayal. Grow up. "perfect electoral partner" - Disappointment guaranteed if searching for that as in other areas of life also! |
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Post by graham on Mar 29, 2023 10:47:13 GMT
Perhaps it is a shame Labour did not lose the Batley & Spen by election in mid-2021. I have no idea who would be Labour Leader now had that happened , but I doubt that it would be Starmer. If you keep following that logic then could end up wishing the Tories win the next election so that he resigns.. Meanwhile the country suffers gravely and maybe the NHS hits the point of no return.. but that's ok because you feel Starmer got what he deserved. That is a non sequitur. The point is that we would probably now have a different Leader had Labour lost Batley & Spen. No idea who that might be. I have no wish to see the Tories win the GE , but do now wish to see Starmer denied a majority. Very happy to see the Campaign Group have leverage over him - though I am not as left wing as that myself.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 29, 2023 10:51:46 GMT
Talk about missing the big picture. The future of the country is more important than your own sense of personal betrayal. Grow up. What would your perfect electoral partner offer Lulu? |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 29, 2023 10:59:02 GMT
If you keep following that logic then could end up wishing the Tories win the next election so that he resigns.. Meanwhile the country suffers gravely and maybe the NHS hits the point of no return.. but that's ok because you feel Starmer got what he deserved. That is a non sequitur. The point is that we would probably now have a different Leader had Labour lost Batley & Spen. No idea who that might be. I have no wish to see the Tories win the GE , but do now wish to see Starmer denied a majority. Very happy to see the Campaign Group have leverage over him - though I am not as left wing as that myself.
"That is a non sequitur" - Perhaps but you admit you want to see Labour hamstrung as a minority govt. It reminds me of attitudes I've seen in others where fighting enemies on one's own 'side' becomes more psychologically important than fighting the common enemy and it's quite an enemy that we have in common. You yourself have described them as wicked and I don't disagree. A Lab minority govt will need the LibDems who are unlikely imo to provide support for radical economic or social ideas. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Mar 29, 2023 11:05:51 GMT
If you keep following that logic then could end up wishing the Tories win the next election so that he resigns.. Meanwhile the country suffers gravely and maybe the NHS hits the point of no return.. but that's ok because you feel Starmer got what he deserved. That is a non sequitur. The point is that we would probably now have a different Leader had Labour lost Batley & Spen. No idea who that might be. I have no wish to see the Tories win the GE , but do now wish to see Starmer denied a majority. Very happy to see the Campaign Group have leverage over him - though I am not as left wing as that myself.
When attacking an enemy you don't just charge full frontal, you also have to try and ensure their logistics are disrupted so they lose the capacity to fight. The Ukrainians are an excellent example of this. Starmer is working to ensure Labour win by reducing the Tories capacity to attack over Corbyn being a Labour candidate and more than that, he would be attacked for letting Corbyn back in. It would be trailed as a sign of weakness, of encouraging the Trots and all the things that Mercian has thrown at us over the last few years. Keeping Torylite at home and not voting is as important as getting your own vote out. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Mar 29, 2023 11:06:00 GMT
Well I've given up on ever finding my perfect electoral partner. Never thought Id be one just to 'settle'. Starmer seems reliable, a bit boring but stable. Hope he doesn't break my heart! What would your perfect electoral partner offer Lulu? |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Mar 29, 2023 11:08:57 GMT
Looks like the gains by the tories last week are reverting back
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steve
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Post by steve on Mar 29, 2023 11:11:51 GMT
The liberal democrats started their national local government campaign today, the press event with Ed Davey was held in my district Dacorum in Berkhamsted, a decent choice given that in the last 5 years the liberal democrats have won every ward there from the Tories.
The local borough council now consists of 31 Tory and 19 Lib dem councillors with no other party representation up from a 46 4 split just four years ago.
Yet according to electoral calculus Labour are predicted to win the parliamentary seat of Hemel Hempstead which covers some of Berkhamsted despite having no representation at borough or county level.
The rest of the town is covered by one of the oddest geography constituencies in England South West Hertfordshire a narrow strip with no obvious connection between the settlements other than the A41 by pass runs through them.
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Post by jimjam on Mar 29, 2023 11:14:23 GMT
Regardless of whether it is right to stop Corbyn being a Labour candidate from a fairness viewpoint, I think many posting that it is a error of judgement have probably not been campaigning in recent months.
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Post by graham on Mar 29, 2023 11:20:26 GMT
That is a non sequitur. The point is that we would probably now have a different Leader had Labour lost Batley & Spen. No idea who that might be. I have no wish to see the Tories win the GE , but do now wish to see Starmer denied a majority. Very happy to see the Campaign Group have leverage over him - though I am not as left wing as that myself.
When attacking an enemy you don't just charge full frontal, you also have to try and ensure their logistics are disrupted so they lose the capacity to fight. The Ukrainians are an excellent example of this. Starmer is working to ensure Labour win by reducing the Tories capacity to attack over Corbyn being a Labour candidate and more than that, he would be attacked for letting Corbyn back in. It would be trailed as a sign of weakness, of encouraging the Trots and all the things that Mercian has thrown at us over the last few years. Keeping Torylite at home and not voting is as important as getting your own vote out. I do strongly disagree. Starmer has effectively given the Tories a weapon where none really existed. Voters pay little attention to former leaders - and would have had no more interest in whether Corbyn stands for Labour in Islington North than whether Boris Johnson stands for the Tories in Uxbridge & Ruislip South. By becoming so obsessed with Corbyn , Starmer has created an issue that was not really there! Corbyn is history - and people have moved on. |
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Post by davem on Mar 29, 2023 11:20:53 GMT
The 2022 Local Elections in Islington North were- LAB 53.2% (-4.1) 🟢 GRN 29.3% (+6.9) 🟠 LD 8.9% (-1.3) 🔵 CON 7.3% (+1.1) I suspect that Corbyn would pick up the bulk of the Green vote plus a big chunk of the Labour vote. Not difficult to see him polling 45%. Looking at those figures, I can see the Greensxwinning, as I think Corbyn would find it difficult to stand against the Labour Party. If he did stand he would be expelled. I can see him standing for the NEC and have a greater influence over the future of the party in that role. If he did this and didn’t endorse the new Labour candidate I could see a large chunk of the Labour vote turning Green. |
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Post by graham on Mar 29, 2023 11:28:52 GMT
The 2022 Local Elections in Islington North were- LAB 53.2% (-4.1) 🟢 GRN 29.3% (+6.9) 🟠 LD 8.9% (-1.3) 🔵 CON 7.3% (+1.1) I suspect that Corbyn would pick up the bulk of the Green vote plus a big chunk of the Labour vote. Not difficult to see him polling 45%. Looking at those figures, I can see the Greensxwinning, as I think Corbyn would find it difficult to stand against the Labour Party. If he did stand he would be expelled. I can see him standing for the NEC and have a greater influence over the future of the party in that role. If he did this and didn’t endorse the new Labour candidate I could see a large chunk of the Labour vote turning Green. It is probably much more likely that the Greens endorse Corbyn if he runs. |
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Post by graham on Mar 29, 2023 11:39:30 GMT
The liberal democrats started their national local government campaign today, the press event with Ed Davey was held in my district Dacorum in Berkhamsted, a decent choice given that in the last 5 years the liberal democrats have won every ward there from the Tories. The local borough council now consists of 31 Tory and 19 Lib dem councillors with no other party representation up from a 46 4 split just four years ago. Yet according to electoral calculus Labour are predicted to win the parliamentary seat of Hemel Hempstead which covers some of Berkhamsted despite having no representation at borough or county level. The rest of the town is covered by one of the oddest geography constituencies in England South West Hertfordshire a narrow strip with no obvious connection between the settlements other than the A41 by pass runs through them. Labour held Hemel Hempstead Oct 1974 - 1979 and again 1997 - 2005. It should be a target seat for the party. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 29, 2023 11:45:46 GMT
When attacking an enemy you don't just charge full frontal, you also have to try and ensure their logistics are disrupted so they lose the capacity to fight. The Ukrainians are an excellent example of this. Starmer is working to ensure Labour win by reducing the Tories capacity to attack over Corbyn being a Labour candidate and more than that, he would be attacked for letting Corbyn back in. It would be trailed as a sign of weakness, of encouraging the Trots and all the things that Mercian has thrown at us over the last few years. Keeping Torylite at home and not voting is as important as getting your own vote out. I do strongly disagree. Starmer has effectively given the Tories a weapon where none really existed. Voters pay little attention to former leaders - and would have had no more interest in whether Corbyn stands for Labour in Islington North than whether Boris Johnson stands for the Tories in Uxbridge & Ruislip South. By becoming so obsessed with Corbyn , Starmer has created an issue that was not really there! Corbyn is history - and people have moved on. It's pre-empting the print media. Voters don't have an interest in an awful lot of things if left to their own devices (the EU for example pre referendum..) but the print media and others would damn well make sure they do have an interest in Corbyn come election time. In fact, they'll still do it anyway by pointing out that Starmer served in his shadow cabinet etc etc. There's logic (whether fair or not) in blunting the weapon to be used against you as much as possible. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Mar 29, 2023 11:50:44 GMT
When attacking an enemy you don't just charge full frontal, you also have to try and ensure their logistics are disrupted so they lose the capacity to fight. The Ukrainians are an excellent example of this. Starmer is working to ensure Labour win by reducing the Tories capacity to attack over Corbyn being a Labour candidate and more than that, he would be attacked for letting Corbyn back in. It would be trailed as a sign of weakness, of encouraging the Trots and all the things that Mercian has thrown at us over the last few years. Keeping Torylite at home and not voting is as important as getting your own vote out. I do strongly disagree. Starmer has effectively given the Tories a weapon where none really existed. Voters pay little attention to former leaders - and would have had no more interest in whether Corbyn stands for Labour in Islington North than whether Boris Johnson stands for the Tories in Uxbridge & Ruislip South. By becoming so obsessed with Corbyn , Starmer has created an issue that was not really there! Corbyn is history - and people have moved on. If 'people' have moved on, it begs the question why haven't you Graham? The Tories would have a field day taunting about Corbyn at every opportunity. I suspect that if Johnson does stand he won't have Starmer or anyone else in Labour bad mouthing him as much as they would denigrate Corbyn. The Tories would regard it as fair sport but I don't think Labour would stoop so low re Johnson, much as I detest the man. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Mar 29, 2023 11:57:55 GMT
Looks like the gains by the tories last week are reverting back SavantaComRes average polling this year is Con 29.2% Lab 45.0%, so bang on average. Along with Opinium and Deltapoll they have the smallest Labour leads. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2023 12:02:58 GMT
I do strongly disagree. Starmer has effectively given the Tories a weapon where none really existed. Voters pay little attention to former leaders - and would have had no more interest in whether Corbyn stands for Labour in Islington North than whether Boris Johnson stands for the Tories in Uxbridge & Ruislip South. By becoming so obsessed with Corbyn , Starmer has created an issue that was not really there! Corbyn is history - and people have moved on. I agree with you. I would make the assumption that JC will be a nuisance in Parliament-no less to his own government-, whatever label he is wearing. I also think that backbench MPs are there as representatives of their voters-not as spokespersons for their Party. As for whether KS makes himself more appealing to swing voters by banning the Old Leftie-can't really see it. He seems to me to be in control of his Party-able to appoint the Cabinet he will want. So -for me-it really is time for Starmer to stop telling me what he isn't and start explaining what he is for. |
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Post by graham on Mar 29, 2023 12:02:59 GMT
I do strongly disagree. Starmer has effectively given the Tories a weapon where none really existed. Voters pay little attention to former leaders - and would have had no more interest in whether Corbyn stands for Labour in Islington North than whether Boris Johnson stands for the Tories in Uxbridge & Ruislip South. By becoming so obsessed with Corbyn , Starmer has created an issue that was not really there! Corbyn is history - and people have moved on. If 'people' have moved on, it begs the question why haven't you Graham? The Tories would have a field day taunting about Corbyn at every opportunity. I suspect that if Johnson does stand he won't have Starmer or anyone else in Labour bad mouthing him as much as they would denigrate Corbyn. The Tories would regard it as fair sport but I don't think Labour would stoop so low re Johnson, much as I detest the man. Starmer is the guy who has failed to move on. People are simply not interested in Corbyn now. Labour can make much more of an issue of Johnson and Truss.
Even when under sustained attack in 2019, Corbyn polled 33% across GB - much higher than Foot in 1983, Brown in 2010, Milliband in 2015 and Kinnock in 1987.
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Post by lens on Mar 29, 2023 12:05:33 GMT
You want to let them all come here at a time when according to you and your confreres the UK is a hellhole on a drastic decline? Surely they'd be better off in the EU? This morning's news is talking about putting refugees on barges. Interviewer tried to get clear whether this is a random idea ahead of the local elections destined to sink forever thereafter, or whether they really think there exist some barges or passenger ships they could actually get hold of for this purpose. One wonders where they might come from? Danny - there are "barges" and "barges". They range from little more than bare shells used for bulk carrying of coal, to the very luxurious. You may like to search for holidays on exactly such on the canals of France - you'll find them quite expensive. Likewise I remember working in Leningrad around 1990 in the middle of winter and our accomodation was a passenger ship in the harbour. (Finnish owned, I think?) Because it was the most luxurious accomodation in Leningrad at the time. (Even had satellite phones! I also remember phoning the office (at £££'s per minute!!) only to be immediately told "can you hold" and no chance to say how much it was costing! But I digress......) You seem to be implying that "barges and passenger ships" must be an inferior form of accomodation. That is far from necessarily true. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Mar 29, 2023 12:09:59 GMT
If 'people' have moved on, it begs the question why haven't you Graham? The Tories would have a field day taunting about Corbyn at every opportunity. I suspect that if Johnson does stand he won't have Starmer or anyone else in Labour bad mouthing him as much as they would denigrate Corbyn. The Tories would regard it as fair sport but I don't think Labour would stoop so low re Johnson, much as I detest the man. Starmer is the guy who has failed to move on. People are simply not interested in Corbyn now. Labour can make much more of an issue of Johnson and Truss.
Even when under sustained attack in 2019, Corbyn polled 33% across GB - much higher than Foot in 1983, Brown in 2010, Milliband in 2015 and Kinnock in 1987.
Ah, but times have moved on too. The Tories would ensure people are interested in Corbyn and whilst Labour had great appeal it was never enough to beat the Tories, partly because they demonised Corbyn to get their vote out. It only needs a concentrated campaign to remind their floaters why they were so scared of a Corbyn government and you've got more Tory votes. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Mar 29, 2023 12:10:47 GMT
graham You don't have to immediately assume criticism of Labour when none is made. I suspect that Labour probably will win locally,the existing and bizarrely popular gammon on a stick is retiring and with some tactical support from lib dem voters Labour have a good chance. Fortunately not everyone is so aggressively doctrinal and can work across progressive parties to the benefit of all. My primary point was how different local voting patterns are from general election I can reasonably confidently predict that Labour will at best win one or two council seats locally despite being best placed to displace the Tories at the Westminster election. They will have to rely on national support as locally the party after two decades of failure is nearly non existent.
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Post by graham on Mar 29, 2023 12:16:04 GMT
Starmer is the guy who has failed to move on. People are simply not interested in Corbyn now. Labour can make much more of an issue of Johnson and Truss.
Even when under sustained attack in 2019, Corbyn polled 33% across GB - much higher than Foot in 1983, Brown in 2010, Milliband in 2015 and Kinnock in 1987.
Ah, but times have moved on too. The Tories would ensure people are interested in Corbyn and whilst Labour had great appeal it was never enough to beat the Tories, partly because they demonised Corbyn to get their vote out. It only needs a concentrated campaign to remind their floaters why they were so scared of a Corbyn government and you've got more Tory votes. A Tory attack on Corbyn in 2024 - had it not been stirred up by Starmer - would have got the Tories nowhere. The media would not have focussed on it and the vast majority of people would have ignored it or shrugged their shoulders. Starmer seems utterly obsessed and very insecure.
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steve
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Post by steve on Mar 29, 2023 12:17:22 GMT
lens"Danny - there are "barges" and "barges". Indeed there are those that float and those that only exist in the minds of Tory ministers and deranged daily mail headline writers. But I'm sure if one of their chums offers to provide some that don't actually exist our wonga will immediately head their way.
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Post by moby on Mar 29, 2023 12:18:31 GMT
Talk about missing the big picture. The future of the country is more important than your own sense of personal betrayal. Grow up. I can only suggest that you take your own advice re-the big picture. There are quite a few of us who are not attracted by a programme of Bland Blairism coupled with more than a touch of authoritarian Stalinism.
I'll assume you'll put the Greens under the same level of scrutiny as you subject Labour to when making your democratic decisions. |
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