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Post by thylacine on Nov 30, 2022 19:21:10 GMT
R&W Scots Westminster Voting Intention poll (with changes from the 2019 Election in parentheses) are as follows:
Scottish National Party 41% (-4)
Labour 31% (+12)
Conservative 16% (-9)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Green 2% (+1)
Reform 2% (new)
Other 1% (–) The poll shows a swing from SNP to Labour of 8% since 2019 and would imply 11 gains with a further 2 seats neck and neck. The gains look to be mainly at the expense of other UK union supporting parties . |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Nov 30, 2022 19:23:21 GMT
R&W Scots Westminster Voting Intention poll (with changes from the 2019 Election in parentheses) are as follows:
Scottish National Party 41% (-4)
Labour 31% (+12)
Conservative 16% (-9)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Green 2% (+1)
Reform 2% (new)
Other 1% (–) The poll shows a swing from SNP to Labour of 8% since 2019 and would imply 11 gains with a further 2 seats neck and neck. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 30, 2022 19:24:36 GMT
She's one of those super 'can do' mums I guess.. There are a couple at my daughter's school. Apparently completely tireless. They have loads of young kids and demanding jobs but still volunteer for everything! Amazing staff I should imagine ! From her wiki it seems like she's from quite the well-to-do background so I imagine she had a fair bit of help but still, you'd start getting their names mixed up wouldn't you? |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Nov 30, 2022 19:25:17 GMT
We could always move to a system of polyandry. Any woman can have N partners, but is limited to producing N-1 children. The men are only permitted to procreate with the one woman that chooses them as a sexual partner.  In this kind of system wouldn't there be a lot of terribly distraught women having to suffer with no man to care for  |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 30, 2022 19:28:03 GMT
“Global wages have fallen for the first time this century, with the UK suffering the second-largest drop among advanced G20 nations since the financial crisis, data has revealed.
Salaries fell by an average of 0.9pc globally in real terms during the first half of 2022, with the gap between productivity growth and wage growth reaching its widest point since the start of the 21st century.
In the UK wages remain 4pc below 2008 levels, meaning the average worker is still worse off than nearly 15 years ago, according to the figures from the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
Of the G20 advanced economies, only Italy suffered a bigger drop than the UK, with Japan also experiencing falls. Including emerging G20 countries, Mexico also recorded a bigger decline than the UK.
China experienced the strongest wage growth among the group, with the average employee in the country earning 2.6 times more than in 2008 in real terms.”
Telegraph
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 30, 2022 19:36:47 GMT
The poll shows a swing from SNP to Labour of 8% since 2019 and would imply 11 gains with a further 2 seats neck and neck. The gains look to be mainly at the expense of other UK union supporting parties . Has anyone mentioned that as "defacto IndyRef2": SNP+SGP+Other (Alba?) = 44% Sum Unionists* = 56% * SLAB need to be careful not to appear to be "NO-Never" but Sir Keir might be able to use a result like that for a bit of 'dither+delay' especially taking note of the polling on the 'conditions' for IndyRef2 (the 60% threshold) PS Love the Xmas doggie (although is that the word 'believe' coming out of his/her....). Certainly time to get your tree up and generally get your Xmas on (and given 'christian' is no longer a majority in E&W then no need for that PC 'Seasons Greetings' stuff, we can all celebrate Hanukkah, Diwali, Eid or even St.Andrew's day without having to call those 'Season Greetings') |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2022 19:38:41 GMT
It's probably being kind to the Tories there. They managed 17.5% in 1997 and won zero seats.
Different times of course, but I'm not sure if they're one of those parties like the LDs whose votes are concentrated in certain areas. It will unravel for them very quickly.
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Post by graham on Nov 30, 2022 19:40:15 GMT
The poll shows a swing from SNP to Labour of 8% since 2019 and would imply 11 gains with a further 2 seats neck and neck. The gains look to be mainly at the expense of other UK union supporting parties . The Labour gains would all come from SNP. Labour winning 30% in Scotland next time does now appear to be a realistic prospect. Good to no longer be a lone voice in making that prediction! |
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Post by oldnat on Nov 30, 2022 19:47:52 GMT
The gains look to be mainly at the expense of other UK union supporting parties . The Labour gains would all come from SNP. Labour winning 30% in Scotland next time does now appear to be a realistic prospect. Good to no longer be a lone voice in making that prediction! |
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Post by jib on Nov 30, 2022 19:48:30 GMT
The gains look to be mainly at the expense of other UK union supporting parties . The Labour gains would all come from SNP. Labour winning 30% in Scotland next time does now appear to be a realistic prospect. Good to no longer be a lone voice in making that prediction! Yes, but equally dependent on the Tories remaining relatively unpopular. It will be a fascinating night. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 30, 2022 19:51:56 GMT
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 30, 2022 19:52:28 GMT
There's a by-election in the City of Chester tomorrow. Presumably it will be a Labour hold with an increased majority share of the vote, despite the reason for the election. One little sidelight is that both UKIP and Reform UK are standing. It will be interesting (to me anyway) to see which comes off best. UKIP has the better-known brand, but Reform UK has Farage. Also Howling Laud Hope is standing for OMRLP. I wonder if he beats either of them they will disband? I note there is a Rejoin party also standing, cunningly named 'Rejoin.EU' to avoid the risk of any confusion. They should have a monopoly on the 'Rejoin' vote with the 'Stay Out' vote split across all other parties. Surely they're a dead cert to win the seat against a split vote, non? Very little interest from the bookies as LAB are 100-1 on to win the seat. Is Farage properly 'back' or just threatening that he might? Anyone fancy a 'sports manperson's' bet that Rejoin.EU loose their deposit (again) even as the only Rejoin option on the ballot paper. I doubt UKIP or RUK will break 5% either but if the turnout is very low then as a 'protest' vote against CON one/both of them might. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Nov 30, 2022 19:56:23 GMT
Plenty of other interesting stuff in the R&W Scottish poll and it doesn't look like a LAB HMG would make that much difference. However, one nugget that BNAT Sir Keir could use (if/when he gets led up the Primrose path of having to give Scotland IndyRef2), is the currency - just don't come across as 'Project Fear' just point out that if you Leave.UK then you Leave.£ - simples View Attachmentoversimples. There are countries outside the EU that use the Euro: Montenegro and Kosovo, for example. There is a downside (like those countries that use the US dollar as their currency) which is that the EU central bank will not be setting its interest rates to take account of their economies. But as long as one can run the economy without a continuing deficit (which is the benefit of having one's own sovereign currency) then you can use any currency you like that is liquid enough. I doubt that Sir Keir will be taking your advice. |
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Post by graham on Nov 30, 2022 19:59:29 GMT
The Labour gains would all come from SNP. Labour winning 30% in Scotland next time does now appear to be a realistic prospect. Good to no longer be a lone voice in making that prediction! Some seats in Scotland have proved to be very fluid over the last 20 years or so. Labour has won constituencies such as Dumfries& Galloway, East Dunbatonshire, Inverness pre-2005 - though present polling does not really yet have them in contention. There is the possibility that a great deal of tactical voting in such seats could unwind to Labour advantage. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2022 19:59:45 GMT
Of course Opinium and Kantar allow for that in their models and they are pointing toward a 1997 sized gap between Lab and Con, which I am sure Starmer would happily take. Interestingly (or not) if you put the 1997 %s into Electoral Calculus using the proposed 2023 boundaries you get a Labour majority of 100, not 179:
(I swapped the Referendum Party for Reform but otherwise kept the same %s for parties as far as Electoral Calculus allows)
On current boundaries the Lab majority is still only 116:
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 30, 2022 19:59:51 GMT
The Labour gains would all come from SNP. Labour winning 30% in Scotland next time does now appear to be a realistic prospect. Good to no longer be a lone voice in making that prediction! Yes, but equally dependent on the Tories remaining relatively unpopular. It will be a fascinating night. Lots of ABSNP 'nose-pegs' in the Unionist vote. SCON have only been popular in a few seats (mostly borders and NE) and have been a 'wasted vote' in all SNP-SLAB marginals. Same for SLIB beyond their limited 'best placed Unionist' number of seats. To push back against SNP then SLAB are the best placed Unionist party in most Scottish seats. SLAB can't be as overly 'NO-Never' as SCON or SLIB but tactical ABSNP voting will help SLAB in a lot of seats (although it's never easy to say if that is 'priced in' to polling or folks just work it out for themselves at the time) |
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Post by neilj on Nov 30, 2022 20:04:54 GMT
Can anyone else see the problem in these attack lines from the Conservatives...
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 30, 2022 20:09:49 GMT
One here that might interest c-a-r-f-r-e-w and a few others. It's ostensibly about evidence for the efficacy of masks in relation to covid, but it's actually far more about the application of the correct scientific method to a specific problem. The debate on mask efficacy is bogged down with the medical establishment bemoaning the lack of 'randomized controlled trial' (RCT) data, which are the best level of data for clinical and medical science. But RCTs are absolutely hopeless when applied to engineered systems where you can measure all the variables. So, for example, seatbelts in cars are an obvious safety measure that works. They have never, ever been exposed to an RCT to provide proof, because we can provide that proof by use of experiment, crash test dummies and injury assessments after real life accidents. The tweet thread author makes the point that firemen and women wear full high grade respirator systems, despite never having conducted an RCT on there efficacy. If we applied the same logic to the fire service as to covid, we would suggest that we haven't got the evidence that respirators work, and ask the fire service to wear simple medical masks when fighting blazes. That would be truly stupid. Covid has been dogged by this desire for RCT evidence, when the NPIs we need are best measured in more appropriate ways. This work has been done, and the results are very clear indeed; masking really works, air ventilation and filtration is excellent, social distancing is highly effective, isolation when sick is vital, etc. Some clinicians and 'evidence based' medical experts have spent far to much time pontificating on areas of data measurement outwith their area of expertise. Why ask a medical doctor about masks, airflow and virus particle transmission when we have physics and engineering experts who know far more about this stuff? Anyway - here is the thread - yes, it did interest me, and it’s not unrelated to how some hospitals use the services of people in the airline industry with their advanced engineering and procedures - to help improve their practices. (Years ago I used to comment elsewhere on how the airline industry had to do more to precisely specify things to make sure they are right, because failure can be so big and conspicuous and hard to place the blame elsewhere, and then discovered some hospitals had actually been making some use of airline abilities in this regard). (To be fair to the Docs though, the people at the top might not have much facility with medicine or science. And you might need to trial stuff a bit more once you involve people into the equation with their unpredictable behaviours etc.) |
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Post by mercian on Nov 30, 2022 20:13:32 GMT
There's a by-election in the City of Chester tomorrow. Presumably it will be a Labour hold with an increased majority share of the vote, despite the reason for the election. One little sidelight is that both UKIP and Reform UK are standing. It will be interesting (to me anyway) to see which comes off best. UKIP has the better-known brand, but Reform UK has Farage. Also Howling Laud Hope is standing for OMRLP. I wonder if he beats either of them they will disband? I note there is a Rejoin party also standing, cunningly named 'Rejoin.EU' to avoid the risk of any confusion. They should have a monopoly on the 'Rejoin' vote with the 'Stay Out' vote split across all other parties. Surely they're a dead cert to win the seat against a split vote, non? Very little interest from the bookies as LAB are 100-1 on to win the seat. Is Farage properly 'back' or just threatening that he might? Anyone fancy a 'sports manperson's' bet that Rejoin.EU loose their deposit (again) even as the only Rejoin option on the ballot paper. I doubt UKIP or RUK will break 5% either but if the turnout is very low then as a 'protest' vote against CON one/both of them might. Farage is just threatening as far as I know, but he does own Reform UK. I don't know how well-known that is though. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 30, 2022 20:23:25 GMT
Plenty of other interesting stuff in the R&W Scottish poll and it doesn't look like a LAB HMG would make that much difference. However, one nugget that BNAT Sir Keir could use (if/when he gets led up the Primrose path of having to give Scotland IndyRef2), is the currency - just don't come across as 'Project Fear' just point out that if you Leave.UK then you Leave.£ - simples View Attachmentoversimples. There are countries outside the EU that use the Euro: Montenegro and Kosovo, for example. There is a downside (like those countries that use the US dollar as their currency) which is that the EU central bank will not be setting its interest rates to take account of their economies. But as long as one can run the economy without a continuing deficit (which is the benefit of having one's own sovereign currency) then you can use any currency you like that is liquid enough. I doubt that Sir Keir will be taking your advice. OK, I did oversimples it but you highlighted the problem of a 'peg' and I did mention don't come across as 'Project Fear'. Scotland will have to issue their own debt to fund their own whopping deficit (and/or slash spending and/or massively increase taxes) as soon as Scotland becomes Independent and didn't we recently see what happened to UK gilts when the markets see for themselves that the numbers don't stake up and what Hunt had to do to convince the markets that UK debt was in a safe pair of hands? Anyway, I'm game for IndyRef2 at some point between 2025 and early 2030s. I doubt Sir Keir reads UKPR2a, he's a sharp enough lad, he can work some stuff out for himself (and if Scotland keep voting SNP then it's a WIN-WIN for him to allow IndyRef2 at a time of his choosing rather than have SNP be kingmakers at Westminster). There is no specific Article50 and no '2yrs for negotiations' (then perma-extensions). Sir Keir could demand SNP come with a very detailed proposal before even considering to grant IndyRef2 as a 'delaying' tactic that would then get folks paying attention to what exactly iScotland would mean (note that is one part of how Canada dealt with Quebec's 'neverendums', the other key criteria of the 'Clarity Acts' being the requirement of a supermajority - ironically worded fairly vaguely!) NB Sir Keir shouldn't delay for too long. As mentioned before then as we start to move rapidly to 'Net Zero' in UK then iScotland's financial situation is going to start looking very +ve. Roughly mid 2030s and hence why my guess (ie not a 'gotcha' prediction for the future) is early 2nd term for Sir Keir to hit the optimal timing (although depends on loads of 'events' between now and then of course) |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 30, 2022 20:29:25 GMT
Danny - "I really dont understand why you consider a randomized trial as hopeless." I don't. They are brilliant for measuring medical outcomes when you can't directly measure what is actually going on. It's the application of them to engineered systems, where you really can measure all the variables and parameters, that is a bit hopeless. So, for another example, as we developed nuclear power, we didn't build a series of reactors with alternative designs, fire them up and then see which ones exploded under a randomized controlled trial, did we? That would be a bit hopeless. What we did is design carefully controlled experiments to learn about and measure the key parameters etc etc. Yes, the example that popped into my mind is suspension bridges. They don’t usually conduct RCTs for building those. (However, you do have to be a bit careful, because every now and then something can catch you out. Like if you don’t take into account how a bridge might be affected by the wind exciting its resonant frequency, which can be more than a little alarming… youtu.be/XggxeuFDaDU😲😲😲) |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 30, 2022 20:34:32 GMT
PS One tactic I expect Sir Keir will use (and one Rishi and he are both already using) is not to ignore Sturgeon. Keep saying UK is a 'voluntary union' and ask SNP to explain what they want to do, given it is SNP who want to break up the UK.
Sir Keir can listen, ask questions, etc. Make sure SNP have a very detailed plan for breaking up the UK that covers absolutely everything that would be part of the divorce and then (when the time is right) say OK - let's have a 'Final Say' IndyRef2 and if Scot vote to stay in the UK then we have 'Clarity Acts' (new Acts of the Union) to make neverendums near impossible to get a 'third time lucky' opportunity.
NB Quebec can still leave Canada. They are in a 'voluntary union' but it's effectively a 'Hotel Canadornia' where you can check in anytime you like, but you can never leave.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 30, 2022 20:36:19 GMT
also in the Telegraph: “San Francisco becomes first US city to allow police robots to kill suspectsRemote controlled machines will be able to administer deadly force following an emotionally charged debate” Yep, tomorrow is with us today folks. (Not sure what steve will make of it) |
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Post by hireton on Nov 30, 2022 20:39:09 GMT
The problem in selective editing is you don't see the room of women supporting trans women and disowning the transphobe: |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 30, 2022 20:58:36 GMT
Well, I’m not sure, but that might not be such a problem for fusion. The UK startup I just posted about on the energy thread uses a pellet gun that fires a pellet every 30 seconds. Not a huge target. (Might not be a big problem for some fission methods either, e.g. the one where the fuel is in tiny grains encased in carbon and ceramic materials that are very robust and survive high temps). That said, there can be coolant issues, though some of the new reactor designs are rather compact and can be sited underground. Don’t forget that some of the nuclear tech I post about can burn up existing nuclear waste, reducing the threat from that. Regrading Wind turbines, there’s quite a bit coming online on the next few years but the government might anyway have it in mind to add to it with SMRs to reach overcapacity. (Of course that could just be a bit of a dream, esp. in the nearer future, like solar arrays in orbit, but may probably happen eventually). Well there is actually a plan to build massive Wind Farm over-capacity* but the problem with wind is that whilst the AVERAGE load factor might be 40% (rounded) then it varies a lot - see the load duration curves in the below link (which I'll repost on the Energy Specific thread) energynumbers.info/uk-offshore-wind-capacity-factors
Well, there’s an argument that as you add more wind turbines in different locations, then it increases the likelihood of catching some wind and it behaves increasingly like a single constant source, but not sure how that really works out in practice. In one approach we might get a lot more leccy from things like nuclear, and the intermittent stuff might be extra on top, to deployed for things that might handle the intermittency better |
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Post by hireton on Nov 30, 2022 21:11:18 GMT
Age breaks for the R&W Scottish independence poll shows majority support in all age groups except the over 65s:
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2022 21:25:46 GMT
Old posh people are racist shock..
(Still, it allows BBC News to put a white person's face on the main page of its website for a change).
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Post by graham on Nov 30, 2022 21:28:24 GMT
Age breaks for the R&W Scottish independence poll shows majority support in all age groups except the over 65s: Though SNP vote share drops to 41% with Labour now on 31%. |
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Post by Mark on Nov 30, 2022 21:28:26 GMT
colin I'm deeply offended that you must have scrolled past this from a few days ago (page 3 of this thread) New Lord Ashcroft piece. Nothing that new but there is a section that suggest some of the CON'19 DKs (and loosely attached CON'19->LAB VI) could be persuaded to vote CON in GE'24. Upside looks limited and I'll restate my view that the 'best' Rishi can realistically hope for is 200ish CON seats in GE'24 (and if they don't sort their infighting out then quite likely a lot less than that) They Think It’s All Over – Can The Tories Turn It Round?lordashcroftpolls.com/2022/11/16852/I'll also restate why I think 200ish CON MPs is important. I totally get your point that they probably need a humiliating defeat to 'wake up' and get back in touch with reality but much below 200 and they won't be able to offer a credible opposition. Sadly within the '200' you will have too many "Ammonites" (which I perhaps misunderstood as you meaning their ability to survive with very little need to or desire to change - hence my example of Old Croc Dinosaur Chope) I also like the idea of Badenoch as LOTO as she'll keep Sir Keir on his toes over issues like Immigration and make it less likely LAB drift back to the Left. For your question: "pps-when the history of this period is written who do you think will be fingered for the destruction of the Conservative Party -Johnson or Truss ?"
If both is an option then both. If I can only pick one then Truss but you've left me feeling a bit queasy by not using the word 'blamed' in your sentence. Please no one ever post the picture that Truss liked to use once she became PM  At least CON rectified the Truss era error pretty quick and markets have fully recovered since (the collective making a few ££ on those market swings ) but for CON's "brand" then they'll be lasting damage for sure and fair play to LAB for mentioning the Truss era error for at least the next 3 GEs (It's what any Tory Party would do) I'm not convinced about the demise of the current Conservative party...nor am I convinced (and this may surprise some coming from me) that this is something that should be welcomed, even by those of us that are firmly LOC. The bottom line is...for the forseeable future, there will always be a ROC party, indeed a mainstream ROC party, if for no other reason that this is where a proportion of the electorate are. What form a near future ROC party takes depends on a number of things. If, as I suspect, the current tories lose the next election, but, hold on to, say, 200 seats, it will likely, depending on which MPs survive, contnue as is, (at leastpartly irrespective of leader) as a right wing populist, UKIP-lite, "anti-woke" party. Don't forget that while the tories have resorted to 'othering' of one group or another at various times, long before te current incarnation, the current party is a long way from the politics of Clarke, Major, Hesiltine....even newer faces such as Rory Stewart are essentially misfits in today's party. If, however, they get a near-wipeout in 2024, temporarily handing the keys of opposition to the SNP, then it's start from scratch. In this scenario, it could go any number of ways.....pro-EU one nation tories ; anti-EU but otherwise one nation ; a move rightwards ; Trumpian populist, who knows. Yes, it's possible they could implode completely or split and a new party rises from the ashes, but, at this point, I don't thnk this is likely. |
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Post by alec on Nov 30, 2022 21:30:16 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "Remote controlled machines will be able to administer deadly force following an emotionally charged debate” That's good. Presumably if you avoid debating with these machines in an emotionally charged manner, you'll be ok?
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