|
|
Post by ladyvalerie on Nov 30, 2022 17:23:04 GMT
1. " can't they just make their bl--dy minds up & get on with it!" Not my view but my summary of ladyvalerie 's, which I think was accurate. Why don't you deal with her directly or do you have a problem with women posters. Don't feel threatened. Together they contribute just over 6% of posts, slightly more than your single-handed 4.5%! 10 posts by you already today Col. Well done. 2. So all they have to do on here is keep repeating that the other lot are rubbish-and worse ! Observing politics for 50 years: nothing equals the chaos since 2016. A big majority & they can't pass housing & other essential bills. Laughable. As Fats W wud say: If this isn't rubbish it will have to do until the the real thing comes along. 3. you must be a happy fellow -here among the Party Warriors and Spear Carriers. Oh dear not the mythical echo chamber again! Look at the stats I provided or are you just ineducable. 4. some us occasionally have a think about the political choices on offer, to ruminate Fine. Just spare us the daily updates on yr voting intentions, the tedious self-regarding agonising, the interminable cud-chewing, the if-Starmer-does-exactly-what-i-demand-I'll-vote Labour-signalling-a-sea-change-in-the fate-of-the-nation posturing. Politics isn't about you. Thanks. .You never dis appoint. ! Sport. ⛹️🏌🏻♀️🏏🏸🏀 |
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 30, 2022 17:24:46 GMT
I was simply comparing numbers. Labour are consistently getting around 50% in polls. If this carried over into a GE and turnout was the same (admittedly turnout in recent GEs has been a bit less than the referendum), Labour would get the most votes any party has ever got. This seems unlikely. LDEM are not what they used to be so 50% for GB (as most polls are GB) doesn't seem that unlikely IMO. IIRC the most votes in a recent GE was CON under Major in GE'92 with 14,093,007 (41.9% with 77.7% turnout) Tory Blair won a landslide but received less votes (13,518,167) in GE'97 (43.2% with 71.3% turnout) In GE'01 NewLABv1 only received 10,724,953 votes (40.7% with 59.4% turnout) but still won a massive majority with 418 seats. Less than 10million in GE'05 but still a NewLAB majority. May received 13,636,684 votes in GE'17 as turnout had picked up again (42.3% with 68.8% turnout) Boris just shy of 14million in GE'19 (43.6% with 67.3% turnout) TBC of course but if the smaller parties don't offer any 'raison d'être' or fold into one of the bigger ones in a GE (eg as Green VI perhaps will) then I don't see any reason why current % polling couldn't be the GE result. My guess, with 2yrs to go and not really that much difference between CON and LAB on most stuff, is a low turnout. Quick example using GE'01 numbers with a shift from LDEM to LAB LAB: 43.2% (+8% from LDEM, net -1% from Scotland) = 50.2% CON: 30.7% LDEM 16.8% (-8% to LAB) = 9.8% SNP: picking up the net +1% from Scotland |
|
|
|
Post by ladyvalerie on Nov 30, 2022 17:26:30 GMT
Spoiler Alert for the Sunday Papers. Having done The Sunday Times and The Sunday Wail then the exciting Sir Keir trilogy wraps up this weekend as Sir Keir comes clean in a 'tell it all' expose for the Sunday Torygraph - the final frontier of folks who might still vote CON in GE'24 but just need to be sure who the real Sir Keir really is. OK we all know he stabbed Corbynism in the back but who is the real Sir Keir. He's 1/ kissed a Tory (code: copied a load of their policies but dabbed a bit of 'vague' nativism and Green on them) and 2/ he stated he is a born again Brexit True Br-Leaver but what the readers of the Sunday Torygraph need to hear is.... 3/ ![]() View AttachmentBut what a good looking Tory. I could even change the habit of a lifetime and vote Conservative 😂 |
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 30, 2022 17:37:07 GMT
Link for R&W Scottish polling redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-26-27-november-2022/A bounce in 'yes' was predictable (no one likes being told what they can/can't do) but this nugget is something SNATS will like: "On the question of whether and when a second referendum should take place, 46% (+12) would support a referendum on Scottish independence being held in the next year, while 43% (-7) would oppose and 9% (-5) would neither support nor oppose this prospect"
Net 3% (+19) for sooner rather than later Obviously Rishi isn't going to give SNATs IndyRef2 but if those numbers hold up then the pressure will be on Sir Keir to do something in his 1st term rather than kick the can by pointing out the "not yet" issue that we've seen in previous Indy polling. Note the x-breaks in the attachment
Attachment Deleted
|
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 30, 2022 17:46:16 GMT
Plenty of other interesting stuff in the R&W Scottish poll and it doesn't look like a LAB HMG would make that much difference. However, one nugget that BNAT Sir Keir could use (if/when he gets led up the Primrose path of having to give Scotland IndyRef2), is the currency - just don't come across as 'Project Fear' just point out that if you Leave.UK then you Leave.£ - simples Attachment Deleted |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Nov 30, 2022 17:51:54 GMT
Comparison of R&W Full Scots poll & Scots crossbreaks in GB polls
27/11/22 Full Scottish poll (N=1000) SNP 41% : SLab 31% : SCon 18% : SLD 8% : SGP 2% : REFUK 2%
27/11/22 GB poll (N=140) SNP 32% : SLab 37% : SCon 17% : SLD 7% : SGP 2% : REFUK 3%
7 Nov GP poll average (N=888) SNP 39% : SLab 38% : SCon 21% : SLD 6% : SGP 3% : REFUK 2%
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Nov 30, 2022 17:52:48 GMT
colin - "I was thinking a " piss off dickhead " button would be really helpful."  Just trying to imagine what the graphic for that might look like......
|
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 30, 2022 17:55:19 GMT
Some stuff SNATs will probably prefer to avoid noticing 'Conditions for an(other) Independence Referendum'
"A plurality (47%) of Scots voters agree with this proposed condition (opinion polls consistently showing that 60% of Scots want one), including a majority (52%) of likely SNP voters.
Finally then 'Most Important Election Issues' for Scotland 1. The Economy: 75% 2. The NHS: 61%
3. Scottish Independence / The Union: 29%... Attachment DeletedObviously a partisan bias on #3 with SNP putting that at 50%, to 16% for SLAB and 13% for SCON. I admit to thinking the % would be even higher. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2022 17:56:51 GMT
I think that as well as a like symbol this site needs a booo-meter. I was thinking a " piss off dickhead " button would be really helpful. I wouldn’t dream of writing that to you Colin. |
|
|
|
Post by James E on Nov 30, 2022 18:00:59 GMT
Comparison of R&W Full Scots poll & Scots crossbreaks in GB polls
27/11/22 Full Scottish poll (N=1000) SNP 41% : SLab 31% : SCon 18% : SLD 8% : SGP 2% : REFUK 2%
27/11/22 GB poll (N=140) SNP 32% : SLab 37% : SCon 17% : SLD 7% : SGP 2% : REFUK 3%
7 Nov GP poll average (N=888) SNP 39% : SLab 38% : SCon 21% : SLD 6% : SGP 3% : REFUK 2% The last of those totals to 109%. Any chance of a recount?  |
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Nov 30, 2022 18:07:31 GMT
Here's hoping the British national parties continue with their campaign for Scottish independence:
|
|
|
|
Post by ladyvalerie on Nov 30, 2022 18:13:02 GMT
It’s all kicking off.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2022 18:15:32 GMT
That was a great series of sketches. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Nov 30, 2022 18:19:48 GMT
Comparison of R&W Full Scots poll & Scots crossbreaks in GB polls
27/11/22 Full Scottish poll (N=1000) SNP 41% : SLab 31% : SCon 18% : SLD 8% : SGP 2% : REFUK 2%
27/11/22 GB poll (N=140) SNP 32% : SLab 37% : SCon 17% : SLD 7% : SGP 2% : REFUK 3%
7 Nov GP poll average (N=888) SNP 39% : SLab 38% : SCon 21% : SLD 6% : SGP 3% : REFUK 2% The last of those totals to 109%. Any chance of a recount?
7 Nov GP poll average (N=981) SNP 36% : SLab 34% : SCon 19% : SLD 5% : SGP 2% : REFUK 2% |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2022 18:24:28 GMT
Ursula von der Leyen has SEVEN children. Thought you all ought to know.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2022 18:29:42 GMT
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,127
|
Post by domjg on Nov 30, 2022 18:31:13 GMT
Ursula von der Leyen has SEVEN children. Thought you all ought to know. She's one of those super 'can do' mums I guess.. There are a couple at my daughter's school. Apparently completely tireless. They have loads of young kids and demanding jobs but still volunteer for everything! |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
Member is Online
|
Post by steve on Nov 30, 2022 18:36:00 GMT
Attachment Deletedcolin - "I was thinking a " piss off dickhead " button would be really helpful." Just trying to imagine what the graphic for that might look like...... Sorted!
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,576
Member is Online
|
Post by pjw1961 on Nov 30, 2022 18:37:46 GMT
Indeed, a binary, expressly non-binding referendum question cannot be at all equated with party support I was simply comparing numbers. Labour are consistently getting around 50% in polls. If this carried over into a GE and turnout was the same (admittedly turnout in recent GEs has been a bit less than the referendum), Labour would get the most votes any party has ever got. This seems unlikely. I don't think even the most optimistic supporter of Labour would expect them to get 50% of the vote in the 2024 GE; it is still mid-term and you would expect some swing-back to the government as the election nears. Of course Opinium and Kantar allow for that in their models and they are pointing toward a 1997 sized gap between Lab and Con, which I am sure Starmer would happily take. P.s. another month has slipped by, so I will update by 'opposition leads' calculation tomorrow and also post some thoughts on new PM 'bounces' or lack thereof. |
|
|
|
Post by jib on Nov 30, 2022 18:42:31 GMT
I was thinking a " piss off dickhead " button would be really helpful. I wouldn’t dream of writing that to you Colin. A specialist in snideness has other tools at their disposal. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,725
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 30, 2022 18:43:18 GMT
Just logged in after a long gap looking after husband. He fell out of bed at 7am this morning trying to reach for something. Last night the carers who put him to bed were in a rush and forgot to put the bed breaks on and he fell between the bed and the wall. I don't know whether he has broken an arm or dislocated his shoulder, I can't move him and he is on the floor distressed and disorientated and in a lot of pain. Phoned for an ambulance 5 hours ago...still waiting. A few years ago hospital care was deteriorating but the emergency services were good. Nothing to do but wait and read all the comments on polling and football! Oh God, the bed brake thing, which can happen in hospital too. Really hope it gets sorted out quickly for you (and that we sort out the ambulance thing too) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2022 18:48:54 GMT
I wouldn’t dream of writing that to you Colin. A specialist in snideness has other tools at their disposal. Oh….congratulations. |
|
|
|
Post by thylacine on Nov 30, 2022 18:51:30 GMT
Ursula von der Leyen has SEVEN children. Thought you all ought to know. She's one of those super 'can do' mums I guess.. There are a couple at my daughter's school. Apparently completely tireless. They have loads of young kids and demanding jobs but still volunteer for everything! Amazing staff I should imagine ! |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Nov 30, 2022 18:58:47 GMT
Looks about what one would expect on those figures. As ex-SLab, then SCon or SNP voters focus on UK (and getting rid of the Tories there), marginal SNP constituencies would become marginal SLab constituencies, while keeping some SCon MPs in place.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,576
Member is Online
|
Post by pjw1961 on Nov 30, 2022 18:59:52 GMT
Ursula von der Leyen has SEVEN children. Thought you all ought to know. Sorry to be a misery, but that isn't very good for the planet. No one should have more than two children really. That would begin to slowly shrink the world population to more sustainable levels. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2022 19:06:07 GMT
Ursula von der Leyen has SEVEN children. Thought you all ought to know. Sorry to be a misery, but that isn't very good for the planet. No one should have more than two children really. That would begin to slowly shrink the world population to more sustainable levels. I’ll see if she’s happy to cut down a bit. |
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Nov 30, 2022 19:09:21 GMT
Ursula von der Leyen has SEVEN children. Thought you all ought to know. Sorry to be a misery, but that isn't very good for the planet. No one should have more than two children really. That would begin to slowly shrink the world population to more sustainable levels. |
|
|
|
Post by graham on Nov 30, 2022 19:13:27 GMT
R&W Scots Westminster Voting Intention poll (with changes from the 2019 Election in parentheses) are as follows:
Scottish National Party 41% (-4)
Labour 31% (+12)
Conservative 16% (-9)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Green 2% (+1)
Reform 2% (new)
Other 1% (–) The poll shows a swing from SNP to Labour of 8% since 2019 and would imply 11 gains with a further 2 seats neck and neck. |
|
|
|
Post by thylacine on Nov 30, 2022 19:18:56 GMT
Sorry to be a misery, but that isn't very good for the planet. No one should have more than two children really. That would begin to slowly shrink the world population to more sustainable levels. In this kind of system wouldn't there be a lot of terribly distraught women having to suffer with no man to care for |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Nov 30, 2022 19:20:23 GMT
There's a by-election in the City of Chester tomorrow. Presumably it will be a Labour hold with an increased majority share of the vote, despite the reason for the election. One little sidelight is that both UKIP and Reform UK are standing. It will be interesting (to me anyway) to see which comes off best. UKIP has the better-known brand, but Reform UK has Farage. Also Howling Laud Hope is standing for OMRLP. I wonder if he beats either of them they will disband?
|
|
