Danny
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Post by Danny on May 15, 2022 13:10:14 GMT
Well 13 years after UK QE was commenced, that's what we've got. Sunak is staring down the barrel of Stagflation. No wonder he doesn't want a Trade spat with EU. You dont think it stretches credibiity to blame QE for current inflation, when it did nothing for ten years? When there are some very clear reasons for roaring inflation now, including brexit, lockdown, deliberate energy policy closing down fossil fuel supplies, and a war. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 15, 2022 13:30:12 GMT
I have for some time been firmly of the belief that the only way levelling up will get any traction in this country is to move the seat of government. I remember various attempts with my private sector employer to spread the business beyond the SE - they always failed because any realignment had to defy the gravitational pull of the centre. London will always (OK that's a long time) have its own gravitational pull through sheer mass and history and it really does not need the seat of government. I suggested to my MP that it should move to Liverpool (I hear Goodison Park is ripe for redevelopment - though I would accept Old Trafford) but she didn't like the idea at all. She claimed that moving the seat of government never works. Not qualified to judge that. @sda's proposal for our Russian chums may not find favour but how about turning the Palace into a refugee welcome centre? That would make quite a splash in world media I imagine, and may provide a ready source of cheap baristas as a side effect to keep the Metropolitan elite happy. My own preference is for just outside Birmingham, near the NEC, where there is already an international airport and good road and rail connections to all parts of the country. The North-West is less accessible from South Wales and the West Country than London is. As everyone knows (or should know) Meriden is the centre of England. www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/nostalgia/meriden-monument-centre-england-9260665Before you get torn apart by our SNP contingent, plonking Parliament (I should really stop there as the phrase has a ring to it) in the middle of ENGERLAND would be rather thumbing your nose at Scotland. Though the sort of area you suggest does have excellent connectivity facilities and HS2 will improve that. If I was being fair to the whole of our benighted island then Haltwhistle fits the bill positonwise but lacks much in the way of international airports, motorways, exhibition centres, hotels, restaurants and high speed rail links. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 15, 2022 14:04:33 GMT
My own preference is for just outside Birmingham, near the NEC, where there is already an international airport and good road and rail connections to all parts of the country. The North-West is less accessible from South Wales and the West Country than London is. As everyone knows (or should know) Meriden is the centre of England. www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/nostalgia/meriden-monument-centre-england-9260665Before you get torn apart by our SNP contingent, plonking Parliament (I should really stop there as the phrase has a ring to it) in the middle of ENGERLAND would be rather thumbing your nose at Scotland. Though the sort of area you suggest does have excellent connectivity facilities and HS2 will improve that. If I was being fair to the whole of our benighted island then Haltwhistle fits the bill positonwise but lacks much in the way of international airports, motorways, exhibition centres, hotels, restaurants and high speed rail links. I suspect that if Parliament was based at the centre of gravity of the UK population it would still come out close to Birmingham. I don't see why it has to be based on geography when almost the whole of Scotland (i.e. north of the Central Belt) has more deer (and sheep) than people. |
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Post by Old Southendian on May 15, 2022 14:16:09 GMT
My own preference is for just outside Birmingham, near the NEC, where there is already an international airport and good road and rail connections to all parts of the country. The North-West is less accessible from South Wales and the West Country than London is. As everyone knows (or should know) Meriden is the centre of England. www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/nostalgia/meriden-monument-centre-england-9260665Before you get torn apart by our SNP contingent, plonking Parliament (I should really stop there as the phrase has a ring to it) in the middle of ENGERLAND would be rather thumbing your nose at Scotland. Though the sort of area you suggest does have excellent connectivity facilities and HS2 will improve that. If I was being fair to the whole of our benighted island then Haltwhistle fits the bill positonwise but lacks much in the way of international airports, motorways, exhibition centres, hotels, restaurants and high speed rail links. Oi, keep your hands off our airport. I'm perfectly happy that Birmingham has an international airport with great road and rail links but is still manages to be relatively quiet and pleasant. Don't go around telling everyone. You'll be letting out that thing about Birmingham being one of the greenest cities in the UK next. |
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Post by Mark on May 15, 2022 14:16:42 GMT
So i agree that the buck will stop with Sunak. Whoever and whatever caused this inflation, voters just want "The Government" to help. And when it gets worse than Bailey forecasts ( again) -as I believe it will, Sunak may be faced with a recession as well as inflation. Firstly, welcome back, Colin! With regard to the near future, of course there will be a recession. When the banking crisis of 2008 hit, I was working in internet mail order. The first Monday after the news broke, I came in to a fraction of the amount of orders I would expect on a Monday. Nobody, at that point, had lost their job or seen a fall in living standards, but, as many thought they might, coupled with a high level of uncertainty, people stopped buying 'wants' and focused on 'needs'. Exactly the same is happening now, but, people have already seen their living standards fall, with many already not having enough money for needs, even before thinking about wants. With near-future uncertainty and a likely further hike in fuel bills, once again, even those ho can afford wants are not buying. The main topic accross seller forums is that sales have gone through the floor. This mean less income and some even packing up, deciding it's no longer worthwhile/viable. So, more people with less/no money....almost like a Keynesian-in-reverse feedback loop. ...and while there are external factors - and some of the inflation is international, Sunak needs to find imaginitive solutions, or at least, for now, plasters, before we end up in a tailspin. |
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Post by jimjam on May 15, 2022 14:17:14 GMT
Red&Wil:-
Which of the following is closest to your view regarding Keir Starmer's statements about the gathering in Durham and its details?
Keir Starmer has been...
Honest about what happened 26%
Dishonest about what happened 27%
Don't know 37% pic.twitter.com/69MXcyATcv
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Post by hireton on May 15, 2022 14:30:27 GMT
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Post by mercian on May 15, 2022 14:41:34 GMT
Before you get torn apart by our SNP contingent, plonking Parliament (I should really stop there as the phrase has a ring to it) in the middle of ENGERLAND would be rather thumbing your nose at Scotland. Though the sort of area you suggest does have excellent connectivity facilities and HS2 will improve that. If I was being fair to the whole of our benighted island then Haltwhistle fits the bill positonwise but lacks much in the way of international airports, motorways, exhibition centres, hotels, restaurants and high speed rail links. Oi, keep your hands off our airport. I'm perfectly happy that Birmingham has an international airport with great road and rail links but is still manages to be relatively quiet and pleasant. Don't go around telling everyone. You'll be letting out that thing about Birmingham being one of the greenest cities in the UK next. Don't forget More Canals Than Venice! 😄 |
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Post by hireton on May 15, 2022 14:54:03 GMT
An informed assessment of the military situation in the Ukraine which concludes that a Russian military collapse by late summer as predicted by the Ukrainian intelligence chief yesterday is credible:
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Post by jimjam on May 15, 2022 15:08:08 GMT
Simon Lightwood, who lives in Wakefield, selected for Labour.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2022 15:13:11 GMT
The main topic accross seller forums is that sales have gone through the floor. This mean less income and some even packing up, deciding it's no longer worthwhile/viable. So, more people with less/no money....almost like a Keynesian-in-reverse feedback loop. ...and while there are external factors - and some of the inflation is international, Sunak needs to find imaginitive solutions, or at least, for now, plasters, before we end up in a tailspin. But the worse thing you can do is freeze public sector and cut civil servant numbers by a fifth! Just what you need in a squeeze |
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Post by jib on May 15, 2022 15:22:59 GMT
The main topic accross seller forums is that sales have gone through the floor. This mean less income and some even packing up, deciding it's no longer worthwhile/viable. So, more people with less/no money....almost like a Keynesian-in-reverse feedback loop. ...and while there are external factors - and some of the inflation is international, Sunak needs to find imaginitive solutions, or at least, for now, plasters, before we end up in a tailspin. But the worse thing you can do is freeze public sector and cut civil servant numbers by a fifth! Just what you need in a squeeze The Tories and Lib Dems deflated the economy through ideological austerity after 2010. It looks like the Tories are proposing the same. However, given that they say one thing one day and the exact opposite a few days later (e.g Northern Ireland Protocol), I'm not paying much attention. |
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Post by shevii on May 15, 2022 15:42:32 GMT
Simon Lightwood, who lives in Wakefield, selected for Labour. Being tweeted 23% turnout (132 members) which seems a pretty decent turnout considering most Labour Party members pretty much pay their dues and leave it at that unless given a chance to vote online. Not much sign of a boycott even if the ex executive did organise what appears to have been a failed walk out. In the guess the national membership game, as they are never released except via internal elections, I make that less than 600 members for the constituency. Not sure if you think Wakefield would be an average constituency or not for membership? I could see the city constituencies being higher and the very Tory areas being woeful. If Wakefield is average then maybe national membership below 400k now? This is assuming the twitter gossip is factual (but very specific figures not to be). |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 15, 2022 15:45:40 GMT
Well I think in any other year the UK would have one - but can't disagree with the message the public vote sent. Come on Ukraine!❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤  Surely two votes wouldn't have been an impossible dream?In my defence, I typed that after a few drinks. |
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2022 15:46:49 GMT
Well 13 years after UK QE was commenced, that's what we've got. Sunak is staring down the barrel of Stagflation. No wonder he doesn't want a Trade spat with EU. You dont think it stretches credibiity to blame QE for current inflation, when it did nothing for ten years? When there are some very clear reasons for roaring inflation now, including brexit, lockdown, deliberate energy policy closing down fossil fuel supplies, and a war. It does-but I couldn't resist the dig. QE caused asset price inflation ( FTSE post 2009 Bull Run / House Prices) , hammered savers and helped borrowers and increased wealth inequalities ( HoL Economic Affairs Committee Report July 2021) |
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Post by jimjam on May 15, 2022 15:48:19 GMT
Shevii,
I don't know what the membership numbers are but in our CLP they have stabilised after the departure of some new members who Corbyn (and what he represented) attracted.
In fact we are seeing a trickle of new members, perhaps driven by antipathy with the Tories rather than enthusiasm for Labour?
So I would say 20% or so down on the peak, maybe 450-500k.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2022 15:53:40 GMT
Mark. Technically a recession is at least two quarters of gdp decline. That would really be bad.
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Post by alec on May 15, 2022 15:56:30 GMT
colin - are you really asking why the EU doesn't like the sound of a UK proposal on the NIP which has the word 'trusted' in it? I mean, really?
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Post by alec on May 15, 2022 15:57:28 GMT
Interesting thread here on polling numbers on immigration -
As worker shortages have become apparent, attitudes have changed.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 15, 2022 17:26:18 GMT
leftieliberal
"I don't see why it has to be based on geography when almost the whole of Scotland (i.e. north of the Central Belt) has more deer (and sheep) than people."
Mrs Nat would chastise you for limiting "geography" to physical geography, and not including human geography which includes the spatial distribution of people, as you suggest. As I prefer not o have her in a bad mood, deprecating the lack of geographical comprehensions in the world - I won't tell on you.
Temporarily relocating the English Parliament to take account of the nations who will leave the UK seems an unnecessary choice.
You are correct, Scotland and Wales have many sheep. We really don't need to increase their number by including the MPs for English parties. However, we are happy to fleece them.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 15, 2022 17:58:33 GMT
As expected, it looks like the CDU will be leading negotiations to form a new Land government in Nordrhein-Westfalen with a predicted 35% of the vote to the SPD’s 27% (down 4% on 2017)
The SPD dithering on Ukraine has really hurt them it seems with 65% of Germans apparently saying that Scholz appears to be a weak chancellor.
As elsewhere the Green’s new hawkishness appears to be playing well with their vote up nearly 12% on 2017 at just over 18%.
AfD and FDP doing satisfyingly badly by just hitting the 5% hurdle.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2022 18:10:23 GMT
Interesting thread here on polling numbers on immigration - As worker shortages have become apparent, attitudes have changed. Interesting ?-possibly. If you believe-as I do-that immigration concerns during the Brexit debate were about "control", rather than numbers , then the authors conclusion that the downturn in his red graph is due to a " growing sense that borders are under control" would be right. And if he was trying to argue that immigration concerns were about numbers then he should have used the appropriate ones-Net Migration-in which case he would have seen a post 2015 fall in his blue graph to 2019-and a collapse in 2020 ! Were there "worker shortages" in 2020 ?. Didn't they appear in the 2021 Return to Work & so called " Great Resignation" ? |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 15, 2022 18:20:14 GMT
Interesting thread here on polling numbers on immigration - As worker shortages have become apparent, attitudes have changed. You may be correct as to the causation, but there are other possibilities. The measure is of the relative importance of issues and it may well be that a number of other things currently matter more to people than immigration - i.e. they may still care about it but inflation, the economy generally, war in Ukraine, NHS, etc. seem more pressing. Another possibility is that the press (and therefore the media generally) have stopped talking about it as much as before and therefore it is lower on people's radar (being cynical you could say 'the immigration crisis' served its purpose for the populist right-wing press in helping bring about Brexit, and can now be forgotten until it is next useful again as a stick to beat the left, probably at the time of the next election). |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 15, 2022 18:44:02 GMT
This mean less income and some even packing up, deciding it's no longer worthwhile/viable. So, more people with less/no money....almost like a Keynesian-in-reverse feedback loop. ...and while there are external factors - and some of the inflation is international, Sunak needs to find imaginitive solutions, or at least, for now, plasters, before we end up in a tailspin. Exactly a negative feedback loop. But I dont see what the BofE is supposed to do. Blanchflower argued they need to lower interest rates to assist the economy. Or since that trick was done 10 years ago and has never been undone, at least not raise them. Others argue the Bof E has no option whatever except to mirror the fed, which was raising. because not to do so is to lose confidence in the pound and see it sink further. Which it will do for all the reasons mentioned before. In 2008 the UK was in the same boat as most other countries, so in one sense it had nothing to fear, all were equally affected. but this time around we have brexit, and it looks like we havnt managed the energy security issue well. We are physicaly closer to the war than the US. Its likely we couldnt afford lockdown. This time we could become greece. It does-but I couldn't resist the dig. QE caused asset price inflation ( FTSE post 2009 Bull Run / House Prices) , hammered savers and helped borrowers and increased wealth inequalities ( HoL Economic Affairs Committee Report July 2021) I dont see asset inflation as a good thing, but the flip side now if it happens will be massive asset deflation. Coupled with consummables price inflation. Mark .Technically a recession is at least two quarters of gdp decline. That would really be bad. While the main cause of the world slump is covid lockdown policy, perversely the rebound from that is probably also masking the technical recession right now.
The bill for lockdown is nowhere near finalised yet. It remains to be seen if even its most ardent supporters will in the end still think it was worth the cost.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 15, 2022 19:38:22 GMT
I gather that the heir to the heir of the throne of lots of states was booed at Wembley yesterday.
I dunno why the Windsors and monarchic expressions of fervour, like GTSQ were particularly out of favour, but such open expressions of republican thinking are no bad thing.
Especially pleasing is that it annoys some of the more foolish Tories. Conservative MP & former Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said: "It is utterly unacceptable and disgraceful that fans booed Prince William. All necessary action should be taken to pursue those responsible."
What does she anticipate could happen to those fans if they are pursued? It isn't (yet) a crime to be a republican.
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Post by hireton on May 15, 2022 19:49:01 GMT
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 15, 2022 19:50:11 GMT
Oi, keep your hands off our airport. I'm perfectly happy that Birmingham has an international airport with great road and rail links but is still manages to be relatively quiet and pleasant. Don't go around telling everyone. You'll be letting out that thing about Birmingham being one of the greenest cities in the UK next. Don't forget More Canals Than Venice! 😄 More canal mileage maybe, not so sure about more individual canals. |
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Post by Old Southendian on May 15, 2022 19:50:35 GMT
I gather that the heir to the heir of the throne of lots of states was booed at Wembley yesterday.
What does she anticipate could happen to those fans if they are pursued? It isn't (yet) a crime to be a republican. I would hope they would be pursued as much as those that booed the England players for taking the knee. That is, not at all. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 15, 2022 19:58:19 GMT
Anent the monarchy and differing attitudes.
Friends of my independista and mildly republican daughter are coming to Scotland for the first time at the beginning of June, to celebrate her 50th birthday in a lodge in the Cairngorms.
They are "very South of England" and are in for a culture shock!
One asked "Will there be a street party? I'll bring the Union Jack bunting".
There are no streets. There aren't even any other houses, and Union Flags would be as welcome as the Pope at an Orange Walk.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 15, 2022 19:59:56 GMT
I gather that the heir to the heir of the throne of lots of states was booed at Wembley yesterday.
I dunno why the Windsors and monarchic expressions of fervour, like GTSQ were particularly out of favour, but such open expressions of republican thinking are no bad thing.
Especially pleasing is that it annoys some of the more foolish Tories. Conservative MP & former Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said: "It is utterly unacceptable and disgraceful that fans booed Prince William. All necessary action should be taken to pursue those responsible."
What does she anticipate could happen to those fans if they are pursued? It isn't (yet) a crime to be a republican. 'All necessary action'?? What the f, are we living in Thailand now? |
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Surely two votes wouldn't have been an impossible dream?
