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Post by jib on May 15, 2022 7:51:23 GMT
All about power and an undemocratic elite (the Lord's) making laws for us serfs. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 15, 2022 8:16:21 GMT
The flip flopping of the Government on the NIP is not good for the stability of Northern Ireland. Different factions are briefing different approaches, so that the parties in Northern Ireland do not know where they stand. The problem is that contenders for the as yet undeclared tory leadership election see the issue as one they can get political capital from. What is best for Northern Ireland and the UK comes a poor second. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 15, 2022 8:17:11 GMT
The UK entry was actually good with a performer who could sing. What went wrong? He'd have won if not for the huge and understandable public vote for Ukraine. I couldn't believe what I was seeing! He seemed like a really great guy as well. |
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Post by jib on May 15, 2022 8:28:55 GMT
The flip flopping of the Government on the NIP is not good for the stability of Northern Ireland. Different factions are briefing different approaches, so that the parties in Northern Ireland do not know where they stand. The problem is that contenders for the as yet undeclared tory leadership election see the issue as one they can get political capital from. What is best for Northern Ireland and the UK comes a poor second. It's all a big show by Johnson to keep the right wing ERG Britannia faction happy. Johnson has no intention of enacting on his threats, it's just to keep the ERG happy. The UK is fully bound to the Northern Ireland protocol and there is zero chance it will renege, and it can only be renegotiated by opening up the oven ready deal he secured. The best the UK can achieve in terms of concessions is zero compliance Irish Sea checks based on assured equivalence. |
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Post by jib on May 15, 2022 8:45:50 GMT
The Telegraph reports that:
"Cabinet ministers have turned on the Bank of England over rising inflation, with one warning that the Bank had been failing to "get things right" and another suggesting that it had failed a "big test".
In a highly unusual attack, one of the senior ministers warned: "It has one job to do – to keep inflation at around two per cent – and it's hard to remember the last time it achieved its target."
The other said government figures were "now questioning its independence", suggesting Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, should do more to hold Andrew Bailey, the Bank Governor, to account."
One does feel the wheels are going to come off this Government pretty soon.
Absolutely clueless.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 15, 2022 8:50:36 GMT
That rather assumes that the voters remain in the same place though. I have always believed that Labour would have won the 1997 election with a reprise of its 1992 manifesto. In the intervening years the electorate had moved away from the Tories and the acceptance of the Thatcherite settlement - and were ready for a more radical change than Blair was inclined to give them. The landslide majority would not have happened , but much of the later disillusionment might well have been avoided. I would not suggest that Labour fight the 2023/24 GE on a 2019 style programme - but it needs to be to the left of what Milliband was offering in 2015. Having lived through Thatcher/Major, and then Blair/Brown, it does look as though the current administration has accomplished the same trick of annoying the electorate sufficiently that voters are moving against it. Con won by supporting Brexit, which was a grand plan to make everything better. Its increasingly the case this has collapsed, and it will only end in verything being worse for Britain. Its not the only cockup, but they have piled up enough people who have become dissilusioned with con to lose power. Their theme for 40 years has been the private sector knows best, or perhaps the traditional centuries old idea of selling monopolies to private individuals who make themselves rich, but also provide a revenue stream for the state and individual politicians. The general population can just go hang, they are irrelevant. Labour in response doesnt seem to have any bright ideas how to make society better. The difference is that most Tories are pragmatists and realise that they need to get power first, and then disagree with each other if necessary. I'm not sure thats true. Yes, Brexit is a classic example where the party ditched its principles of being pro EU when it saw leave was the only way open to it to win. But at the same time con rely upon another block vote which is all about a minority becoming rich. At the cost of the majority. Its a fairly large minority, but its target is only as broad as it needs to be to win so currently only maybe the richest 10-20%. Its a simple but consistent policy. This has not changed at all and is the bedrock principle of the conservative party. This is always overlaid with promises to 'level up', which are never fulfilled, but do persuade others who aspire to be rich even if they never succeed and never could. Its an interesting and pretty successful recipe, make money for the minority including yourself, falsely promise the same to enough more to win. Over the years I have been watching it seems to me the proportion needed to win an election is falling. It isnt about convincing people but picking the least worst of the two. Labour is just completely confused nowadays. This rowing over Corbyn and the left, and previously we had Foot, makes it clear the broad left side of politics are hopelessly split into two factions even within the labour party, who cooperate very badly because they have very different goals. The red wall and the London luvvies. Surely they are no more attached to their ideals than con, but the truth is labour has two clear factions who are significantly incomptible. They are only held together at all because UK politics only allows two big parties. |
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2022 8:58:45 GMT
ST report on the NIP includes :-
Truss's proposals :-
"Under the plans drawn up by Truss the legislation does six key things:
• Deals with customs delays by creating a green lane for registered trusted traders sending goods for sale only in Northern Ireland, and a red lane for those where products might go on to the Republic, with the latter subject to full EU checks.
• Imposes higher penalties on firms who break the rules and smuggle goods in the Republic.
• Includes measures to allow firms to produce goods to UK standards in Northern Ireland.
• Puts governance of the border in the hands of UK courts, rather than the European Court of Justice.
• Gives the chancellor the right to change tax rates to allow the same VAT cuts in Northern Ireland as in the rest of the country.
• Includes an explicit pledge that Britain would never install any border infrastructure between Northern Ireland and the Republic."
with this comment :-"British officials stress the UK has already set up a computer system which provides one million live items of data in real time on the movement of goods. Ministers say this proves that trade between the mainland and Northern Ireland is no threat at all to the integrity of the EU single market — and yet the EU has not yet taken up the offer of access to the database."
A comment on timescales:-
"Sources in both Downing Street and the Foreign Office stress that it could take a year to change the law. The bill itself will not be tabled for a couple of weeks and then the first and second readings will follow almost immediately. However, passing the bill and using its provisions are different things."
And comments on Gove & Sunak :-
"Michael Gove, formerly the point man with Sefcovic, is also of the view that Britain should wait before taking unilateral action. The Cabinet Office has also commissioned Treasury officials to draw up estimates of the risks to the economy in different scenarios, spelling out which sectors are vulnerable to EU trade war retaliations."
"Even late last week Rishi Sunak sent back some of the work because it was not up to scratch. “He is a conviction Brexiteer but his job is to present the prime minister with worst-case scenarios of what could happen economically,” a Treasury source said. “When inflation is running where it is and interest rates are rising and the economy has begun to shrink, adding a potentially damaging trade war is not ideal.”
There is a timescale on EU responses too :-
"While immediate retaliation is possible, officials point out that there is a nine- month grace period between the implementation of rules which contravene the Brexit deal and the EU being able to bring legal action. The hope is that the new plans are shown to work and be no threat to the single market before that happens."
I wonder why Sefcovic objects to the proposed Green/Red lanes and trusted trader status ?
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Post by jib on May 15, 2022 9:03:17 GMT
@danny
"Surely they are no more attached to their ideals than con, but the truth is labour has two clear factions who are significantly incomptible. They are only held together at all because UK politics only allows two big parties."
Which is why Labour will always be lukewarm towards PR and the Tories steadfastly against.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2022 9:17:23 GMT
The Telegraph reports that: "Cabinet ministers have turned on the Bank of England over rising inflation, with one warning that the Bank had been failing to "get things right" and another suggesting that it had failed a "big test". In a highly unusual attack, one of the senior ministers warned: "It has one job to do – to keep inflation at around two per cent – and it's hard to remember the last time it achieved its target." The other said government figures were "now questioning its independence", suggesting Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, should do more to hold Andrew Bailey, the Bank Governor, to account." One does feel the wheels are going to come off this Government pretty soon. Absolutely clueless. Criticism of BoE handling of this inflationary rise-or even its independence- is not restricted to the political right :- www.newstatesman.com/economy/2022/05/its-time-to-consider-revoking-the-bank-of-englands-independenceFears that BoE was not seeing the scale of inflationary risk-or responding quickly enough were being expressed last year-including in the G www.theweek.co.uk/business/banking/954775/is-the-bank-of-england-bottling-it-over-interest-rateswww.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/05/bank-governor-signals-interest-rates-rise-will-need-to-rise-towards-1-per-centThe loose monetary policy of the last decade and more-ultra low interest rates , and Central Bank Asset Purchases ( QE) is coming to an end. Whilst many will cite the various external components of this inflation ( ?10% pa + later this year !) , QE was always an inflationary risk. The central criticism of its most profligate manifestation-Money Printing -is that it will cause inflation. Well 13 years after UK QE was commenced, that's what we've got. Sunak is staring down the barrel of Stagflation. No wonder he doesn't want a Trade spat with EU. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 15, 2022 9:18:55 GMT
jib There isn't a snowball's chance in hell of Ukraine re-taking Crimea. It would just unite public opinion in Russia and the local population would fight back. Like Kyiv and Kharkiv but in reverse. I'm sure Zelensky understands this, so he wouldn't be so foolish as to try. Given the snowball's chance Ukaine was given of lasting even a month, your assessment seems very bold indeed. The consequence of this war will be to erode Russia's capability to hold Crimea. This morning's UK militay assessment seems to be Russia has lost 1/3 of its military capability alreday. With a war the winner is the side with 1 soldier left when the other has none. |
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Post by hireton on May 15, 2022 9:21:52 GMT
Informative thread by John Burn-Murdoch on trends in UK attitudes to immigration and possible causes of them:
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steve
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Post by steve on May 15, 2022 9:34:41 GMT
Westminster village idiot Lee Anderson could soon follow the example of Hatey Hopkins and find themselves significantly poorer.
Jack Monroe the cook and poverty campaigner has instructed libel lawyers after the Tory MP Lee Anderson alleged the writer and food blogger was profiteering from the poor.
Monroe, who won a rancorous, high-profile libel action against the former Daily Mail columnist Katie Hopkins in 2017, tweeted that the MP’s comments were a “very clear cut case of outright libel”.
Although not confirmed, the lawyer in question could be Mark Lewis who pioneered the phone-hacking claims that led to the closure of the News of the World.
In a separate tweet, Monroe reached out to him: “got a job for you pal”.
The row began after deputy leader of the Reclaim Party, Martin Daubney, posted a clip of an interview he had conducted with Anderson.
At the start of the clip, Daubney refers to Monroe as the “self-appointed representative of the impoverished”, adding she has “sold loads of books. Done quite well out of it. No doubt, probably earns more than the prime minister”.
Anderson responds by stating: “She’s taking money off some of the most vulnerable people in society and making an absolute fortune on [sic] the back of people.”
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 15, 2022 9:51:51 GMT
Parliament Renovation
I see Gove has blackballed the Lords moving over the road to the QE2 Centre whilst their pad is renovated. They've been told to go elsewhere in the country, even though the plan for them to go to York went belly up because it was impractical.
I wonder if he'd have said the same if it was the Commons who were having to move out?
That got me thinking.
Why do we have to spend billions on renovating the Palace of Westminster when, presumably, we could build a brand new edifice somewhere out of London for an awful lot less. Then sell of the PoW to developers who'd have to bear the renovation costs and then sell the results to Russian oligar....... Drat, maybe rethink that last bit.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 15, 2022 10:05:42 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on May 15, 2022 10:09:28 GMT
colin
Isn't the CoE meant to work closely with the Governor of the BoE, co-ordinating economic responses? I know the BoE is independent, but the CoE (Sunak) can't absolve himself from their monetary policy failures, surely. The idea that Bailey is some loose canon, acting without Number 11 endorsement, is absurd.
Sunak must take responsibility for the handling of the British economy. The buck stops with him.
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Post by johntel on May 15, 2022 10:09:56 GMT
jib There isn't a snowball's chance in hell of Ukraine re-taking Crimea. It would just unite public opinion in Russia and the local population would fight back. Like Kyiv and Kharkiv but in reverse. I'm sure Zelensky understands this, so he wouldn't be so foolish as to try. Given the snowball's chance Ukaine was given of lasting even a month, your assessment seems very bold indeed. The consequence of this war will be to erode Russia's capability to hold Crimea. This morning's UK militay assessment seems to be Russia has lost 1/3 of its military capability already. With a war the winner is the side with 1 soldier left when the other has none. No, I think the outcome has been pretty much as widely predicted, with Russia extending control of Donbas and establishing a land bridge to Crimea. I think the attempt to take Kyiv was a last minute decision driven by Putin's misreading of the West's disarray in the build up, with the idea that at least it would divert Ukrainian defences away from the East. On Feb 12th I said "But perhaps a more likely outcome, depending on how strong the resistance is, is that he'd just get Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia - more or less the current rebel-controlled area. That would leave him exposed at home though - not a clear victory to make the subsequent pain seem worthwhile." I still stand by that. |
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Post by johntel on May 15, 2022 10:15:27 GMT
Maybe we should adopt the Eurovision voting system for General Elections and allow people to vote up to 20 times, so long as they pay for each vote?
:-)
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Post by jib on May 15, 2022 10:19:20 GMT
Given the snowball's chance Ukaine was given of lasting even a month, your assessment seems very bold indeed. The consequence of this war will be to erode Russia's capability to hold Crimea. This morning's UK militay assessment seems to be Russia has lost 1/3 of its military capability already. With a war the winner is the side with 1 soldier left when the other has none. No, I think the outcome has been pretty much as widely predicted, with Russia extending control of Donbas and establishing a land bridge to Crimea. I think the attempt to take Kyiv was a last minute decision driven by Putin's misreading of the West's disarray in the build up. On Feb 12th I said "But perhaps a more likely outcome, depending on how strong the resistance is, is that he'd just get Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia - more or less the current rebel-controlled area. That would leave him exposed at home though - not a clear victory to make the subsequent pain seem worthwhile." I still stand by that. When Russian military defeat comes, and I believe it is now inevitable against a galvanised Ukrainian army fighting with massively superior weaponry and supported by Western intelligence and live satellites etc, the stringent sanctions should only be lifted when the Russians also surrender Crimea. The Russian Bear must be castrated. |
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Post by jimjam on May 15, 2022 10:42:03 GMT
Colin,
''I wonder why Sefcovic objects to the proposed Green/Red lanes and trusted trader status ?''
Have you seen this somewhere as it would surprise me also?
Some of the other elements of the 'Truss' plan I can see having to be finessed but this part seems the most straightforward.
Indeed, I have been advocating for over a year now along with support for small businesses to cover associated costs with a Trusted Trader Scheme.
Labour will keep pressing the veterinary agreement option as that protects, as they would see it, UK consumers from food from the US and elsewhere with lower standards.
I would have both the TTS and the veterinary agreement but I fear 'politics' will get in the way.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2022 11:02:59 GMT
colin Isn't the CoE meant to work closely with the Governor of the BoE, co-ordinating economic responses? I know the BoE is independent, but the CoE (Sunak) can't absolve himself from their monetary policy failures, surely. The idea that Bailey is some loose canon, acting without Number 11 endorsement, is absurd. Sunak must take responsibility for the handling of the British economy. The buck stops with him. BoE is independently responsible for Monetary Policy. The Government sets its inflation target:- www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflationThe Treasury is responsible for Fiscal Policy. Yes the two should work in co-ordination. |
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Post by guymonde on May 15, 2022 11:10:55 GMT
Parliament Renovation I see Gove has blackballed the Lords moving over the road to the QE2 Centre whilst their pad is renovated. They've been told to go elsewhere in the country, even though the plan for them to go to York went belly up because it was impractical. I wonder if he'd have said the same if it was the Commons who were having to move out? That got me thinking. Why do we have to spend billions on renovating the Palace of Westminster when, presumably, we could build a brand new edifice somewhere out of London for an awful lot less. Then sell of the PoW to developers who'd have to bear the renovation costs and then sell the results to Russian oligar....... Drat, maybe rethink that last bit. I have for some time been firmly of the belief that the only way levelling up will get any traction in this country is to move the seat of government. I remember various attempts with my private sector employer to spread the business beyond the SE - they always failed because any realignment had to defy the gravitational pull of the centre. London will always (OK that's a long time) have its own gravitational pull through sheer mass and history and it really does not need the seat of government. I suggested to my MP that it should move to Liverpool (I hear Goodison Park is ripe for redevelopment - though I would accept Old Trafford) but she didn't like the idea at all. She claimed that moving the seat of government never works. Not qualified to judge that. @sda's proposal for our Russian chums may not find favour but how about turning the Palace into a refugee welcome centre? That would make quite a splash in world media I imagine, and may provide a ready source of cheap baristas as a side effect to keep the Metropolitan elite happy. |
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Post by guymonde on May 15, 2022 11:13:42 GMT
colin Isn't the CoE meant to work closely with the Governor of the BoE, co-ordinating economic responses? I know the BoE is independent, but the CoE (Sunak) can't absolve himself from their monetary policy failures, surely. The idea that Bailey is some loose canon, acting without Number 11 endorsement, is absurd. Sunak must take responsibility for the handling of the British economy. The buck stops with him. BoE is independently responsible for Monetary Policy. The Government sets its inflation target:- www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflationThe Treasury is responsible for Fiscal Policy. Yes the two should work in co-ordination. I've been a bit busy with local elections so haven't been here much recently. Just wanted to record I'm very happy to see you back posting regularly - we need you! |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 15, 2022 11:18:07 GMT
 She's not dead just waiting for Brexit bonuses. |
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Post by jayblanc on May 15, 2022 11:19:03 GMT
From various reports, it seems like the idea that Johnson would rather be leader of a party reduced to a rump of loyalists than face a leadership contest has born fruit. No one in the Conservative Parliament is eager to test if he'd start kicking people out of the party for disloyalty. So Johnson will remain leader for now, with all that implies. It also seems this means that now the 'Leadership contest trigger' for the Conservative party means sending a letter to someone absolutely loyal to the leader, who will then tell you that you want to reconsider if you actually sent that letter and consider your future.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 15, 2022 11:21:07 GMT
In a highly unusual attack, one of the senior ministers warned: "It has one job to do – to keep inflation at around two per cent – and it's hard to remember the last time it achieved its target." A fairly typical economically illiterate attack on the BoE from a senior Tory minister. The requirement on the BoE is to use interest rates and other monetary policies (like QE) to bring the inflation rate back to around 2% (that is within a 1-3% range) in 2 years time. That is why the Governor has to write a letter to the Chancellor when it is outside this range. The two-year period is to allow the BoE to look through temporary changes in inflation, such as those caused by the war in Ukraine. Changes in interest rates affect the economy over a period of months and years not instantaneously as any fule knows. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 15, 2022 11:32:29 GMT
Parliament Renovation I see Gove has blackballed the Lords moving over the road to the QE2 Centre whilst their pad is renovated. They've been told to go elsewhere in the country, even though the plan for them to go to York went belly up because it was impractical. I wonder if he'd have said the same if it was the Commons who were having to move out? That got me thinking. Why do we have to spend billions on renovating the Palace of Westminster when, presumably, we could build a brand new edifice somewhere out of London for an awful lot less. Then sell of the PoW to developers who'd have to bear the renovation costs and then sell the results to Russian oligar....... Drat, maybe rethink that last bit. I have for some time been firmly of the belief that the only way levelling up will get any traction in this country is to move the seat of government. I remember various attempts with my private sector employer to spread the business beyond the SE - they always failed because any realignment had to defy the gravitational pull of the centre. London will always (OK that's a long time) have its own gravitational pull through sheer mass and history and it really does not need the seat of government. I suggested to my MP that it should move to Liverpool (I hear Goodison Park is ripe for redevelopment - though I would accept Old Trafford) but she didn't like the idea at all. She claimed that moving the seat of government never works. Not qualified to judge that. @sda's proposal for our Russian chums may not find favour but how about turning the Palace into a refugee welcome centre? That would make quite a splash in world media I imagine, and may provide a ready source of cheap baristas as a side effect to keep the Metropolitan elite happy. My own preference is for just outside Birmingham, near the NEC, where there is already an international airport and good road and rail connections to all parts of the country. The North-West is less accessible from South Wales and the West Country than London is. As everyone knows (or should know) Meriden is the centre of England. www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/nostalgia/meriden-monument-centre-england-9260665 |
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Post by laszlo4new on May 15, 2022 11:39:05 GMT
Landes elections today in North Rein Westfalia (about a fifth of the German electorate). The campaign wasn't about local issues. Here are the polls from a couple of days earlier. www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htmAdded: sorry, some details - it seems that the Greens will be the deciding power in forming the local government. FDP weakened quote a bit, and Die Linke is completely lost. Unfortunately, the AfD increased a bit and will be in the landestag. |
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2022 11:58:37 GMT
Colin, ''I wonder why Sefcovic objects to the proposed Green/Red lanes and trusted trader status ?'' Have you seen this somewhere as it would surprise me also? Some of the other elements of the 'Truss' plan I can see having to be finessed but this part seems the most straightforward. Indeed, I have been advocating for over a year now along with support for small businesses to cover associated costs with a Trusted Trader Scheme. Labour will keep pressing the veterinary agreement option as that protects, as they would see it, UK consumers from food from the US and elsewhere with lower standards. I would have both the TTS and the veterinary agreement but I fear 'politics' will get in the way. Well I make the assumption that if those are the measures proposed by Truss for UK unilateral legislation-she could not get Sefcovic to agree to them. I agree that the Customs procedure proposed seems an obvious solution-dont know why it isnt being used from the off. When I watched Mary Lou McDonald at her post NI election victory Press Conference I noted her remarks about the NIP. She said it was basically inviolable , subject to "fexibility". I thought I detected a smidgeon of smirk. I note that Coveney this morning warns against unilateral action. I wouldn't dare suggest on this site that Sefcovic is playing for time-but is it unreasonable, given the election outcome in NI to suggest that strict application of NIP as currently will lead to Irish unification within EU ? Anyway-lets hope that the talk of breaching the Protocol is media hype and that the seemingly sensible customs arrangements we both support can be introduced within the Brexit Agreements. |
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Post by catmanjeff on May 15, 2022 12:13:21 GMT
Westminster village idiot Lee Anderson could soon follow the example of Hatey Hopkins and find themselves significantly poorer. Jack Monroe the cook and poverty campaigner has instructed libel lawyers after the Tory MP Lee Anderson alleged the writer and food blogger was profiteering from the poor. Monroe, who won a rancorous, high-profile libel action against the former Daily Mail columnist Katie Hopkins in 2017, tweeted that the MP’s comments were a “very clear cut case of outright libel”. Although not confirmed, the lawyer in question could be Mark Lewis who pioneered the phone-hacking claims that led to the closure of the News of the World. In a separate tweet, Monroe reached out to him: “got a job for you pal”. The row began after deputy leader of the Reclaim Party, Martin Daubney, posted a clip of an interview he had conducted with Anderson. At the start of the clip, Daubney refers to Monroe as the “self-appointed representative of the impoverished”, adding she has “sold loads of books. Done quite well out of it. No doubt, probably earns more than the prime minister”. Anderson responds by stating: “She’s taking money off some of the most vulnerable people in society and making an absolute fortune on [sic] the back of people.”
Putting it politely, he is the skid mark on the underwear of Westminster.
I hope Mr Anderson get taken down a peg or two.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2022 12:26:07 GMT
colin Sunak must take responsibility for the handling of the British economy. The buck stops with him. Just to follow up on this :- The following link is to the latest letter from Bailey to Sunak (and Sunak's reply ) explaining why they are over inflation target ( again). Note that he says BoE now think it could get worse for longer and they will start raising interest rates. ( Some have been telling him this would happen for some time ! ). Sunak lists all the fiscal measures he is taking to respond the the BoE's failure to meet its mandate. www.bankofengland.co.uk/letter/2022/march/cpi-inflation-march-2022Voters will not read these letters. The niceties of relative responsibility for Monetary & Fiscal Policy will not be studied by voters who increasingly cannot afford their food and energy bills. So i agree that the buck will stop with Sunak. Whoever and whatever caused this inflation, voters just want "The Government" to help. And when it gets worse than Bailey forecasts ( again) -as I believe it will, Sunak may be faced with a recession as well as inflation. |
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