oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Sept 3, 2022 15:39:02 GMT
ON - thanks for the panelbase. Those constituency numbers are clearly within MOE of what other polling evidence (even the albeit flawed aggregated cross-breaks) is showing for Westminster. SNP mid 40s, Lab early 20s and Tories late teens, LDs don't know tbh but must be close as the other are.
SNP 45% : SCon 25% : SLab 19% : SLD 10%
Other than SCon & SLab changing places (which won't make a huge difference to the distribution of Scots MPs), it has been polldrums for a long time now.
It seems fairly clear that changes have come about primarily due to older voters, who support the UK Union and used to vote SLab (having moved to voting SCon as they were the most voluble Unionist party) now back to voting SLab in disgust at Johnson and seeing Truss as even worse. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Sept 3, 2022 15:46:50 GMT
steve
"In brexitania the regime urges the inmates to buy a new kettle."
I have bought 700 new kettles. I reckon that if I plug them all in and keep them boiling all day, I'll save a fortune! Thanks Johnson for the advice. 
(I'm hoping to have a holiday in Greece next year. Is there a EHIC style arrangement in place?)
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 3, 2022 16:02:01 GMT
Oldnat
Actually there is GHIC it's free and within the European union not much inferior to the ehic
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 3, 2022 16:03:38 GMT
Actually there is the GHIC
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Sept 3, 2022 16:13:47 GMT
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Post by hireton on Sept 3, 2022 17:02:31 GMT
This would definitely be a brave decision: attacking employment rights including holiday entitlement while cutting corporation tax:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2022 19:12:48 GMT
It must be true .. I read it in the Daily Mail ....
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Post by RAF on Sept 3, 2022 19:25:36 GMT
It must be true .. I read it in the Daily Mail ....
Ha! Also questionable terminology by Mail. How would a GE in 12 months (and also just a few months before one is due anyway) be a "snap" GE? |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Sept 3, 2022 19:28:38 GMT
This would definitely be a brave decision: attacking employment rights including holiday entitlement while cutting corporation tax: Just when you thought you couldn't despise them more. Thanks to the party kept in power overwhelmingly by those who don't work. The working age population of this country are their unwilling victims. First through brexit they reduce your economic opportunities or ability to work in other European countries. Now they want to water down your employment rights at a time of great uncertainty. I doubt it will happen but be under no illusions what they would do to you given the chance so they can continue to mollycoddle their retiree base. |
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Post by hireton on Sept 3, 2022 19:29:08 GMT
Opinium:
Truss underwhelming nearly everbody:
and:
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Post by shevii on Sept 3, 2022 19:29:09 GMT
Stats for Lefties
@leftiestats
·
18m
🗳️ NEW: Labour lead drops to just 4pts (+/- since 18-19 Aug)
🔴 Lab 38% (-1)
🔵 Con 34% (+3)
🟠 LD 12% (+2)
🟢 Grn 6% (-1)
🟡 SNP 4% (+1)
Via
@opiniumresearch
, 31 Aug-2 Sep
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Post by shevii on Sept 3, 2022 19:29:58 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2022 19:48:00 GMT
Aston Crossbat 1 - Haaland City 1
The bottom side done good.
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Post by hireton on Sept 3, 2022 19:51:42 GMT
The Tories are allegedly making up rules to rig a referendum which they are not going to "allow":
Given the British nationalist view that laws must apply equally throughout the UK and the precious union, they will apply this to a border poll in Nothern Ireland. Or perhaps not.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2022 20:15:59 GMT
The Tories are allegedly making up rules to rig a referendum which they are not going to "allow": Given the British nationalist view that laws must apply equally throughout the UK and the precious union, they will apply this to a border poll in Nothern Ireland. Or perhaps not. Won't that be a little embarrassing as they try to explain why the 2016 referendum result gave a mandate to leave the EU on less than 50% of the eligible vote, but that doesn't apply to Scotland leaving the UK.
Let's not forget that 37.4% constitutes the "Will of the People"
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Post by hireton on Sept 3, 2022 20:27:06 GMT
The Opposition will be delighted if this is the new Cabinet:
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Post by EmCat on Sept 3, 2022 20:31:55 GMT
The Tories are allegedly making up rules to rig a referendum which they are not going to "allow": Imagine if MPs had to be elected by more than 50% of the electorate for that constituency. According to that very question being asked on Quora, there would be just nine such MPs. www.quora.com/What-percentage-of-MPs-were-actually-elected-by-more-than-50-of-their-electorate-in-the-2019-UK-general-election?top_ans=259901939"The figures given are usually for the share of votes rather than the share of the total electorate. Correcting for that I find that of the 650 MPs elected in 2019 just NINE had the votes of more than 50% of their electorate. That makes the answer 1.38 percent. All of these came from English constituencies. Seven of them are Labour MPs and two are conservative MPs In Northern Ireland the MP with the highest percentage of electorate votes was Belfast South held by the DUP with 38.7% of the electorates votes In Scotland the MP with the highest percentage of electorate votes was for Stirling held by the SNP with 39.3% of the electorates votes. In Wales the MP with the highest percentage of electorate votes was for Montgomeryshire held by the Conservatives with 40.8% of the electorates votes So those constituencies with a truly representative MP are all in England and are: Bootle, Labour, Turnout 65.7%, Electorate share 52.2% Garston and Halewood, Labour, Turnout 70.1%, Electorate share 50.7% Knowsley, Labour, Turnout 65.3%, Electorate share 52.7% Liverpool Riverside, Labour, Turnout 65.7%, Electorate share 51.2% Liverpool Walton, Labour, Turnout 65.1% Electorate share 55.1% Liverpool West Derby, Labour, Turnout 67.0%, Electorate share 52.0% Maldon, Conservative, Turnout 69.6% Electorate share 50.1% Rayleigh and Wickford, Conservative, Turnout 69.5%, Electorate share 50.5% Walthamstow, Labour, Turnout 68.8%, Electorate share 52.4%" |
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Post by peterbell on Sept 3, 2022 20:32:14 GMT
Can someone please tell me what Opinium polls are supposed to represent. While the 17% lead a couple of days ago might be on the high side of MOE, 4% is just ludicrous. I remember reading some time back after Opinium changed methodology that its new method reflected that their figures represented what the result is likely to be at the next election. If that is true, then WHAT A LOAD OF RUBBISH. I suspect that if things continue as most experts predict, then the result is more likely to be 25% lead than 17%. Apart from anything else, many of the over 65s will unfortunately have died due to hypothermia or starvation!!!
Surely if Opinium are going to publish data like this then it should be accompanied by words of explanation and then the interested public can take it with the pinch of salt it deserves.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 3, 2022 20:36:36 GMT
This would definitely be a brave decision: attacking employment rights including holiday entitlement while cutting corporation tax: I vividly recall the brexit campaigns making solemn promises that in the event the UK left the EU there would be no reduction in employment rights. Just another lie of course, but one many of us suspected at the time. |
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Post by RAF on Sept 3, 2022 20:38:36 GMT
This would definitely be a brave decision: attacking employment rights including holiday entitlement while cutting corporation tax: I vividly recall the brexit campaigns making solemn promises that in the event the UK left the EU there would be no reduction in employment rights. Just another lie of course, but one many of us suspected at the time. Yes but the UK also refused to sign up to dynamic alignment or even non-regression. The later was a huge clue as the the UK's future direction in this area. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 3, 2022 20:40:23 GMT
The Tories are allegedly making up rules to rig a referendum which they are not going to "allow": Given the British nationalist view that laws must apply equally throughout the UK and the precious union, they will apply this to a border poll in Nothern Ireland. Or perhaps not. Pleased that by your own definition you have finally recognised that while the Labour and Lib Dem parties are unionist parties they are not "British nationalists". Nice to get agreement on that fairly obvious point. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 3, 2022 20:44:59 GMT
Can someone please tell me what Opinium polls are supposed to represent. While the 17% lead a couple of days ago might be on the high side of MOE, 4% is just ludicrous. I remember reading some time back after Opinium changed methodology that its new method reflected that their figures represented what the result is likely to be at the next election. If that is true, then WHAT A LOAD OF RUBBISH. I suspect that if things continue as most experts predict, then the result is more likely to be 25% lead than 17%. Apart from anything else, many of the over 65s will unfortunately have died due to hypothermia or starvation!!! Surely if Opinium are going to publish data like this then it should be accompanied by words of explanation and then the interested public can take it with the pinch of salt it deserves. Opinium's last Labour lead of 8% was very high for them; they have reverted to their recent norm. They are not measuring current opinion but trying to forecast the result of the next GE by applying epic levels of swing back to their figures. Seems daft to me, so I now ignore them in my own calculations. I do think it is confusing for the general public who will assume it is a normal poll. |
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Post by shevii on Sept 3, 2022 20:45:33 GMT
Can someone please tell me what Opinium polls are supposed to represent. While the 17% lead a couple of days ago might be on the high side of MOE, 4% is just ludicrous. I remember reading some time back after Opinium changed methodology that its new method reflected that their figures represented what the result is likely to be at the next election. If that is true, then WHAT A LOAD OF RUBBISH. I suspect that if things continue as most experts predict, then the result is more likely to be 25% lead than 17%. Apart from anything else, many of the over 65s will unfortunately have died due to hypothermia or starvation!!! Surely if Opinium are going to publish data like this then it should be accompanied by words of explanation and then the interested public can take it with the pinch of salt it deserves. They have given a detailed explanation here: www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-27th-january-2022-2/People on here have suggested the effect of this is to make it a "forecast" rather than a "poll" but beyond this I'd say their criteria is a little bit suspect and not able to easily take into account a change of mood in the electorate. I think even more extreme than the ICM which worked for a long time which assumed don't knows returning to the fold come an election but then didn't work when the mood of the electorate had changed, especially with regard to Lib Dems and also minor parties (including UKIP). I'm sort of happy to have different pollsters doing different things as it gives a range of methodology to show the range of possibles. So I guess Opinium is worst possible for Labour consistently and can probably never turn into best possible whereas one of the other polling companies will be better consistently for Labour. Kind of like a worst case and best case scenario range. |
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Post by graham on Sept 3, 2022 21:06:38 GMT
Can someone please tell me what Opinium polls are supposed to represent. While the 17% lead a couple of days ago might be on the high side of MOE, 4% is just ludicrous. I remember reading some time back after Opinium changed methodology that its new method reflected that their figures represented what the result is likely to be at the next election. If that is true, then WHAT A LOAD OF RUBBISH. I suspect that if things continue as most experts predict, then the result is more likely to be 25% lead than 17%. Apart from anything else, many of the over 65s will unfortunately have died due to hypothermia or starvation!!! Surely if Opinium are going to publish data like this then it should be accompanied by words of explanation and then the interested public can take it with the pinch of salt it deserves. Tonight's Opinium probably implies a current Labour lead of 10% - 12%. |
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Post by guylemot on Sept 3, 2022 21:13:05 GMT
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Post by hireton on Sept 3, 2022 21:14:55 GMT
The Tories are allegedly making up rules to rig a referendum which they are not going to "allow": Given the British nationalist view that laws must apply equally throughout the UK and the precious union, they will apply this to a border poll in Nothern Ireland. Or perhaps not. Pleased that by your own definition you have finally recognised that while the Labour and Lib Dem parties are unionist parties they are not "British nationalists". Nice to get agreement on that fairly obvious point. I expect the other British nationalist parties to support this as they agree with the Tories that the results of Scottish elections can and should be ignored. |
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Post by alec on Sept 3, 2022 21:16:56 GMT
hireton - the leak on an alleged bonfire of employment rights is a truly odd thing to focus on. There is currently a shortage of labour, and that is what is holding back recruitment, not excessive red tape and employment protection rights. If this is meant to restore economic growth, it's badly mistimed. Politically it also seem somewhat inept. In many ways, this would mark the end of leveling up - most workers who depend on employment rights to protect them will be in the lower pay grades, so moving against these would send a signal that the Conservatives priorities lie with big employers, not hard pressed workers.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 3, 2022 21:24:45 GMT
Pleased that by your own definition you have finally recognised that while the Labour and Lib Dem parties are unionist parties they are not "British nationalists". Nice to get agreement on that fairly obvious point. I expect the other British nationalist parties to support this as they agree with the Tories that the results of Scottish elections can and should be ignored. But they do not support the application of single UK law, as both parties support the devolution settlements transferring powers to the administrations in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast (and as oldnat likes to point out, the Lib Dems specifically endorse federalism). I appreciate that whenever challenged you just change your definition, so your use of the phrase "British nationalist" instead of unionist remains what it has always been - meaningless. |
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Post by alec on Sept 3, 2022 21:25:13 GMT
I posted on this a while ago - www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/03/we-just-want-the-truth-british-coastal-towns-fight-for-answers-over-mystery-sealife-deathsIt's either part of the increasing strangeness in the natural world, as seas warm and odd things happen, or a potential cover up of the potential for devastating environmental impacts from dredging at Teesport for a project backed so desperately by ministers that they don't care what destruction is causes along the coast. The evidence for a natural cause seems thin however, and it's an open secret that the sediments from the great rivers of the Norther East can be highly toxic if disturbed. This would worry me. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Sept 3, 2022 21:36:59 GMT
The Tories are allegedly making up rules to rig a referendum which they are not going to "allow": Given the British nationalist view that laws must apply equally throughout the UK and the precious union, they will apply this to a border poll in Nothern Ireland. Or perhaps not.
Such legislation would only make sense if the UK Parliament is ruled not (currently) to be required to authorise such a referendum. If it were, then the conditions for such would be more appropriately specified at the time of such a referendum being agreed - as in the Edinburgh Agreement preceding the 2014 referendum. Of course, any future UK Government that was minded to "allow" such a referendum could simply repeal this proposed Tory legislation.
Perhaps of more importance, is that it implies that Scottish independence should be implemented by the UK if a majority of Scots (however calculated) support it, as opposed to the Ukrainian or Spanish constitutional models.
In the meantime, I suspect that it is simply posturing to try to get the ex-SLab, then SCon, now SLab Unionist voters to vote Tory and save some Scottish Tory seats. |
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