alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 31, 2022 10:00:34 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,205
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 31, 2022 10:19:35 GMT
Surely The Battle of Hastings II, the sequel, is over by now? There might be more sequels... Battle of Hastings 3: “This time it’s personal” Battle of Hastings 4: “Just when you thought it was safe to go back on the board” Hastings Rider (1969): “A man went looking for Covid, and he couldn't find it anywhere.” Angry Posters (1957): “Life is in their hands -- Posting is on their minds.” Hastings 13 (1995): “Hastings, we have a problem.” Die Posting 2 (1990): “Post Harder” The Magnificent 2 (1960): ”They were 2... and they fought like 200” Hastings Indemnity (1944): “From the moment they met it was Covid” Covidphobia (1990): "Four legs, two keyboards, and an attitude." Hastings The Movie: ”If you only read one post this year... you need to get out more often”. The Hastings Posting Massacre (1974): “Who Will Survive, and What Will Be Left of Them?” Hastings Reloaded (2003): “Reality is a thing of the past.” Germinator 2 - Judgement Decade (1991): “Same Make. Same Model. Same Posts.” Dannyman (1992) "We Dare You to Say His Name Five Times" Sleepless in Hastings (1993) "What if someone you never met, someone you never saw, someone you never knew was the only someone for you?"
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Post by alec on Aug 31, 2022 10:35:00 GMT
steve - I've tended to follow the England NHS statistics for hospital admissions data - see here - www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/Working through their daily data, for English hospital admissions for the under 5s I get: 12/10/20 - 6/4/21 1,957 (no earlier data) daily average 11 7/4/21 - 30/9/21 2,037 daily average 12 1/10/21 - 31/3/22 7,355 daily average 40 1/4/22 - 30/8/22 4,661 daily average 38 Notable also that if you plot the daily data for the period 1/10/21 - 31/3/22, when we first saw significant rises, you will see very clearly that the averages were sub 20 until mid-December, rising to around 70 during the peak Omicron infection waves. Doing the same for the earlier periods, you will see that the highest one day totals in the non-Omicron waves were 32 on 13th Jan 2021 and 33 on 25th July 2021. By contrast, the highest one day totals in three Omicron waves were 110 on 3/1/22, 79 on 3/4/22 and 87 on 5/7/22. There is absolutely no question that the serious disease burden on the unvaccinated under 5s was far, far more severe in the Omicron stage of the pandemic compared to the previous periods, and the gross numbers regarding total hospitalisations of the under 5s in 2020 and 21 compared to 2022 look about right to me.
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Post by alec on Aug 31, 2022 10:45:43 GMT
A good dissection here of the root cause of most of our problems - and all fingers point to Conservative stewardship -
The mantra that low taxes boost the economy is as broken as the country itself is right now. It's investment that matters, and these charts show with painful clarity that a party that knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing is not fit to govern.
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Post by pete on Aug 31, 2022 10:49:22 GMT
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Post by pete on Aug 31, 2022 10:50:36 GMT
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Post by Mark on Aug 31, 2022 10:51:09 GMT
I was listening to Yesterdays James O'Brien's LBC show last night (and props to whoever uploads them to Youtube every day), which focused on the upcoming energy costs, which are uncapped, to the hostpitality sector (not to mention hospitals, schools and care homes).
It was scary listening. We are talking 500% plus rises in energy costs, even before taking into account that people will be strugging financially.
It is estimated that up to 50% of pubs will close.
Pubs that survived Thatcher, the banking crisis and covid.
While not so much in focus, the same could happen to takeaways and restaurants.
....and now some are talking about inflation reaching 22% - and the figure seems to be getting progressively higher - yet, the government is nowhere to be seen...Truss saying "wait till I win before I reveal my plans", Johnson doing a "victory lap" (!) after yet another holiday, the chancellor, literally weeks into the job, missing in action in America...and nobody - NOBODY from government putting any serious proposals on the table to do anything to tackle this utter mess.
....and in one of the richest countries in the world, there is now talk of "warm banks" - public spaces where people can go simply to stay warm.
Seriously?
What if the public use these spaces en mass? What if we have a snowy winter? What if many of these public spaces simply cannot stay open with the upcoming energy price rises?
How the shit did we come to this?
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Post by pete on Aug 31, 2022 10:51:25 GMT
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Post by pete on Aug 31, 2022 10:54:18 GMT
I was listening to Yesterdays James O'Brien's LBC show last night (and props to whoever uploads them to Youtube every day), which focused on the upcoming energy costs, which are uncapped, to the hostpitality sector (not to mention hospitals, schools and care homes). It was scary listening. We are talking 500% plus rises in energy costs, even before taking into account that people will be strugging financially. It is estimated that up to 50% of pubs will close. Pubs that survived Thatcher, the banking crisis and covid. While not so much in focus, the same could happen to takeaways and restaurants. ....and now some are talking about inflation reaching 22% - and the figure seems to be getting progressively higher - yet, the government is nowhere to be seen...Truss saying "wait till I win before I reveal my plans", Johnson doing a "victory lap" (!) after yet another holiday, the chancellor, literally weeks into the job, missing in action in America...and nobody - NOBODY from government putting any serious proposals on the table to do anything to tackle this utter mess. ....and in one of the richest countries in the world, there is now talk of "warm banks" - public spaces where people can go simply to stay warm. Seriously? What if the public use these spaces en mass? What if we have a snowy winter? What if many of these public spaces simply cannot stay open with the upcoming energy price rises? How the shit did we come to this? 12 years of Tory grifting and lying.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 10:58:35 GMT
alec Since the inception of covid around 40 children under 5 have died having tested positive, there is no definitive occasions where any child under 5 has died exclusively because of covid. Of the around 17000 children under five admitted to hospital in the UK in total a tiny fraction have been admitted because of covid a significant proportion of children ( probably around a third) have acquired covid as a hospital acquired infection , ie they wouldn't have tested positive unless they were already admitted to hospital for something else and the vast majority of cases are asymptomatic, a fraction are admitted to child high dependency units, none this year because of covid. The number of children that have been admitted having already tested positive are probably unrelated to covid susceptibility other than the highly social nature of children in a community with high levels of asymptomatic infection . The figure I quoted was for a single day it's clearly wrong even if the 10000+ figure was correct for total admissions over nine months and it almost certainly isn't judging by the ons data it overwhelmingly reflects asymptomatic positives and hospital acquired and again asymptomatic cases. It's akin to saying that 10,000 people admitted to hospital because of cancer also have a cold or caught one while they were in hospital. There's a causation link here which is totally disregard
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Post by davwel on Aug 31, 2022 11:05:35 GMT
I think some energy companies are trying to lure customers to pay more than will be needed, using the panic predictions of steep price rises.
OVO has just "suggested" we raise our monthly DD that they had already pushed up a few months ago. So they want an extra £240 a month even though we are in credit by £812 from the last rise.
Petrol prices have come down faster than many of us believed likely 3-4 months ago, from £1.98 a litre to £1.60s at garages we passed yesterday. We have not approved OVO`s suggestion, based on their guess for the next 12 months.
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Post by pete on Aug 31, 2022 11:15:51 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2022 12:19:28 GMT
Guardian reports:
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 44% (+1) CON: 31% (=) LDM: 12% (+1)
Via @deltapolluk , On 26-30 August, Changes w/ 22 August.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 31, 2022 12:23:46 GMT
Yeah, it’s interesting: ‘ One of the first such studies was reported this month in a preprint from Akiko Iwasaki, David Putrino and colleagues at Yale. They report a clear biomarker delineating differences in the long Covid group, with signals including low serum cortisol (a hormone involved in control of the stress response) and evidence of reactivation of latent Epstein-Barr virus. This is not yet an outright diagnostic test for long Covid, but it expands our knowledge of what exactly is happening behind the symptoms, as well as signposting potential treatments.”
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Post by alec on Aug 31, 2022 12:26:19 GMT
pete - Prof Altmann is one of the sensibly brigade. What interests me are the facts that long covid totals are falling, but long term sufferers increasing, and I think that points to some difficulties defining long covid. It's normally taken to mean suffering symptoms 28 days or more after the initial infection subsides, and that i think will include an awful lot of people who haven#t really got what I would deem as long covid, but who are taking a while to recover from a nasty infection. It's the long haulers where I have much greater concern. the brookings Institute reckon that this category are knocking a full 1% of US GDP because they cannot work, and that's a really significant economic hit. The other point Prof Altmann doesn't address is the very strong epidemiological data that shows very clearly, across multiple countries, how a large range of serious health conditions are far more likely in the period of at least a year after even mild infections. Cardiovascular problems, strokes, including bleeding on the brain, dementia, kidny and liver problems and diabetes are all at very significantly elevated levels post covid, when matched against uninfected cohorts. As far as I am aware, the study participants did not think they had long covid, so just assessing the lingering health impacts by looking at long covid is probably underestimating what is actually going on.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 31, 2022 12:33:03 GMT
steve - no. Danny has never posted any evidence about negative covid tests being required to be added to death certificates and thus making those deaths officially covid related, because no such evidence ever existed, as I have proven. He/she knows that, which is why they are behaving like a three year old. This notes that special regulations were introduced on 1 April 2020, which are the ones I read before and reported on here.
This says : "5.4 Deaths involving infections and communicable diseases • That Covid-19 is a notifiable disease under the Health Protection (Notification) Regulations 2010 does not mean referral to a coroner is required by virtue of its notifiable status. • If you are aware that a virology test for Covid-19 has been carried out, state the result if known, for example ‘Covid-19 (positive test)’. However, certification should not be delayed in order to await test results."
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Post by alec on Aug 31, 2022 12:36:24 GMT
pete and Mark - running your two energy related posts together does, I think, give us the fuller picture. Electricity prices to industry are indeed rising by 500%, a devastating increase. This is mainly driven by gas prices, which have risen by about that amount. But only around 40% of UK electricity is from gas and around 50% of UK gas consumption is from imported gas, the rest from our own gas reserves. So for gas, we ought really to be expecting prices to rise by something like 250%, still big, but half the actual level. We're basically buying our own gas at the global price, wrecking the economy in the process, instead of pegging the price of British gas to halve the delivered cost to consumers. It's even worse on electricity, where the gas price rises should really lead to a 40% rise in electricity costs, or perhaps 20% if UK produced gas was provided at capped prices. Again, these would be big inflationary prices, but survivable. That the UK energy market is just broken comes in pete's link, with the projection of a £170bn profit for the energy sector, which is clearly showing something very wrong is going on in this market. It's a testament to the failed neo-liberal private sector design of our energy market that a sharp price rise of 20-40% gets converted into a economy collapsing surge of 500%, with energy companies selling our own gas back to us at prices so expensive that businesses cannot function and citizens cannot stay warm. A dafter system could not have been designed if we tried.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 31, 2022 12:39:31 GMT
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Post by alec on Aug 31, 2022 12:42:21 GMT
Danny - thankyou. That's the proof I posted a week or so back when you first raised your daft claim. As I said at the time, you seem to think that stating a test had been done but the results were not available is the same as calling a death covid caused when there had been a negative test. You are and were completely wrong, and you made a ridiculous false claim, and then lied about offering the proof previously. You've completely misunderstood how this works, and then sailed on from there. Like I explained before, it is possible for there to be a negative test but with the doctor believing covid was a contributory factor, but the presence of a negative test does not mean the death is counted as covid - it only counts as covid if the doctor believes covid contributed to the death. I'll take this as your withdrawal and we won't need to trouble each other any more on this matter. You lost; get over it, is the appropriate term, I think.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 31, 2022 12:43:57 GMT
Guardian reports: Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 44% (+1) CON: 31% (=) LDM: 12% (+1) Via @deltapolluk , On 26-30 August, Changes w/ 22 August. Wow a post about polling 👏 Perhaps we should have a new thread about polling. It could be called UKPollingReport.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 31, 2022 12:44:04 GMT
pete and Mark - A dafter system could not have been designed if we tried. It’s possible they did try
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,205
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 31, 2022 12:50:11 GMT
Polling from 2019, showing the increasing support for nationalisations in the Corbyn era www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-election-corbyn-leader-polls-nationalisation-a9248511.html
Public support for nationalisation increased while Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader, poll finds“Study finds that ‘political consensus’ has emerged on public ownership
Support for nationalisation and public ownership increased across the board during Jeremy Corbyn’s tenure as Labour leader, polling has found.
The public is now even more likely to want the railways, water companies, buses, energy companies, Royal Mail and the health service to be run in the public sector than they were at the last election – to the extent that there is now a “political consensus” among voters.
The findings, from a study by the pollster YouGov, come amid a debate in Labour about the political direction the party should take when it chooses its new leader.
…
When YouGov asked voters in May 2017 whether they supported various different types of public ownership, they found large majorities in favour of most proposals across practically all demographics. Asking the same questions again on election day last week, the pollsters found that support had increased in almost all cases following Labour campaigning on the issue.
Voters last week were six percentage points more likely to support railway nationalisation than they were at the 2017 election, with 64 per cent in favour and just 23 per cent opposed. Support for water companies’ renationalisation also increased by the same amount, with 63 per cent now in favour and 23 per cent opposed.
…
While Labour supporters were the most strongly in favour of public ownership, it did have some support across the board: for example, 48 per cent of Tory voters supported rail nationalisation, compared with 41 opposed.”
…
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 31, 2022 12:50:31 GMT
“Separate polling conducted by Opinium found that Jeremy Corbyn’s personal unpopularity and the party’s Brexit position were by far the biggest contributors to it losing so many voters, with Labour’s economic policies only cited by 6 per cent of defectors. Some 37 per cent cited Mr Corbyn’s leadership and 21 per cent its Brexit position.”
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 12:50:55 GMT
ladyvalerie To be fair I think every UK poll and election result is posted on here,there's just not that many of them.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 12:55:50 GMT
Carfrew Both remain and brexitanians could be equally unhappy with Labour's Brexit position prior to 2019. Corbyn and the parties position on brexit acceptance under him were the reasons I left and their position still on the absurdity of making Brexit work is the primary reason I haven't rejoined.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 31, 2022 13:07:16 GMT
steve - I've tended to follow the England NHS statistics for hospital admissions data - see here - www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/Working through their daily data, for English hospital admissions for the under 5s I get: 12/10/20 - 6/4/21 1,957 (no earlier data) daily average 11 7/4/21 - 30/9/21 2,037 daily average 12 1/10/21 - 31/3/22 7,355 daily average 40 1/4/22 - 30/8/22 4,661 daily average 38 Notable also that if you plot the daily data for the period 1/10/21 - 31/3/22, when we first saw significant rises, you will see very clearly that the averages were sub 20 until mid-December, rising to around 70 during the peak Omicron infection waves. Doing the same for the earlier periods, you will see that the highest one day totals in the non-Omicron waves were 32 on 13th Jan 2021 and 33 on 25th July 2021. By contrast, the highest one day totals in three Omicron waves were 110 on 3/1/22, 79 on 3/4/22 and 87 on 5/7/22. There is absolutely no question that the serious disease burden on the unvaccinated under 5s was far, far more severe in the Omicron stage of the pandemic compared to the previous periods, and the gross numbers regarding total hospitalisations of the under 5s in 2020 and 21 compared to 2022 look about right to me. So heres the cumulative zoe data for prevalence, which has changed a bit over the years but includes some breakdowns by age group.
You seem to be saying cases amongst under 5s have gone up - well cases for all age groups have gone up. Note this graph doesnt have much of their early data, but there are a couple of points included on the left in yellow. This suggests cases in the spring 2020 outbreak were in reality as high as now, but there was a dip in between.
If you instead look at government figures, well they missed most cases altogether because they were not estimating the population rate but counting positive tests. We did not start out doing regular screening tests in hospitals on all patients, because there was nowhere near the capacity to do so. So many minor cases would have been missed in the early official months. Of course, all cases were missed before it 'officially' arrived. Interestingly i was talking to someone in London who reckoned they and sibling had covid winter 19/20 too. In that case the person had a bad illness with the right symptoms before covid supposedly arrived, later a mild officially diagnosed case and then a more severe case again which would have corresponded about with omicron. Thats pretty close to the pattern I had.
You will remember I posted this graph of Kensington v. Hastings deaths before, which showed there were negligible covid deaths in Hastings during the official 2020 sring outbreak. If you compare to above, the high deaths peak corresponds to the kent wave late 20 peaking jan 21. Since then there have been no more spikes of deaths, and I grant you this coincides with our having already vaccinated all the old, who were always most of those dying.
There are no no more spikes of covid deaths. But the question arises whether we had spikes because there were lots of susceptible people alive, but they already died in the first couple of waves, so there could not be any more surges. What we have seen instead however, is a steady low levels number of deaths week by week. Which is again cocnsistent with this idea people become susceptible at a steady rate because they get other illnesses which weaken them, or just get very old. This would slowly refill the reservoir of highly susceptible people, but with covid endemic they pretty much catch it as they reach that stage, and we get a slow trickle of cases instead of peaks.
And this is from the FT which I also posted before. It shows cumulative deaths, but from this you can see the actual deaths toll in england had its greatest surge in the Kent wave. Which was the one where we had all the restrictions in place. killed more than the first wave, when we didnt. arguably looking at this, just as many people have died from omicron wave as did in spring 2020, just spread over a long time. So you have to wonder just what was the point if all these interventions, simply to spread the same number of deaths over 9 months instead of 1?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 31, 2022 13:17:19 GMT
People might like to consider that in the 70s when the Uk and world were also hit by energy price shocks, we suffered from Oil price rises alone. Then, 50% of electricity came from burning coal mined in the UK, wholly controlled by the Uk government. Hence the only inflationary aspect was wages, which rose with inflation after the fact of rising oil prices impacting the economy.
Now its 50% gas, and while half of that is not imported, all of it is subject to competitive world pricing.
The actual situation in terms of energy shortfall seems rather better now than then. Then we had real power cuts which may not happen this time at all. But this time thanks to government policies since that time, we are completely exposed to world prices.
Its odd we used to have Uk controlled energy on the back of which we built an empire. We still have a significant home supply of gas, and now indeed renewables. Yet we are incapable of keeping down energy prices. Reap what you have sown.
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Post by davwel on Aug 31, 2022 13:20:48 GMT
So HMQ has to receive and anoint Truss at Balmoral, accompanied by outgoing Johnson. There are only two vehicular accesses to Balmoral in regular use, and they could easily be blocked by protestors angry at the avoidance of democracy by the CON party. But I advise against this, since Truss and Johnson will arrive by helicopter, disembark on the Castle lawn and walk in.
If crowds gather at the policy entrances, they will merely be laughed at by those in the helicopter, who enjoy antagonism and scorn the people that they have bypassed in enriching their allies.
But maybe the UK Gov will order the youngsters in Crathie School to stand outside and wave Union Jacks at overhead helicopters, for the benefit of the world`s media, and to disrespect their education.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 31, 2022 13:24:40 GMT
How the shit did we come to this? Its been a slow burn dating back to Thatcher, through son of Thatcher, and then right of Thatcher brexiteers.
By the by, 'More or less' was back on R4 this morning. They talked about energy, rather concluding that no amount of fiddling with price caps can solve the problem, because the problem is the vast amount we are paying for fuel out of the ground.
They also addressed the steady excess of deaths currently happening in the UK NHS, which they concluded was not due to current covid, and was not due to excess cancer deaths- though they reckoned it would take longer for those to work through from being missed during the covid disruption.
They concluded the most likely cause was the ongoing collapse of the NHS unable to cope. Which comes back to massive staff shortages in medical services.
They didnt mention it, but its also shortage of care workers for social services. It makes more sense to lump together all types of care. We have created an artificial divide because of the way funding is split between hospitals inadequately funded and council services suffereing annual cuts.
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Post by mercian on Aug 31, 2022 13:28:31 GMT
I think I'd rather catch Covid than have to skip any more interminable posts about it.
There was a pandemic. It killed millions of people worldwide. Some governments could have made different decisions. Vaccinations came along. Covid is no longer a major threat. End.
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