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Post by RAF on Aug 30, 2022 20:30:41 GMT
Willetts Wily Wisdom This is not as specious as the self-exculpating N. Timothy Tosh you quoted recently: but it has the same devious intention. 1. There is no political or even economic context! Jesus wept The giveaway phrase is in practice the system is not fair across the generations. The system is treated as a natural, inevitable process, rather than an instrument created by the powerful to protect their interests & to a lesser extent those who support them. Yes, if one quotes a Tory, then some may feel it apt to deliver a customary kicking. However, I should point out, that he didn’t treat the system as a “natural, inevitable process”, he did give a rationale for it: as politicians pandering to a large voting block. Which I do think is the case, however I think you are correct that it may mot be the only motive. In fairness to Willetts, after he exited front-line politics he became very reasonable.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 30, 2022 20:36:32 GMT
The system has worked for Boomers at every stage of their livesIf Tories do not wish to be seen as a party for older people, they must give the younger generation a break on housing and wages “ That is the theory but in practice the system is not fair across the generations. We can estimate how much people put in overall during their working lives as against how much they will take out from the welfare state. It looks as if there is a lucky generation of Boomers born after the war who are taking out 25pc more than they put in. Younger generations will still gain a bit – if the economy grows we can all share in the benefit as we get older - but they will be lucky if they get a 10pc return.Willetts in the Telegraph 4. Willets wants to redress the balance bewteen the advanatged old & the struggling young, does he, yeh. Then tax wealth, lower the threshold for IHT, to blunt the advantages that have accumulated so prominently in older hands; then merge NI and income tax and make prosperous older people pay that rate above a threshold that leaves poorer pensionsers unaffected. Or something. 5. "They must give the younger generation a break on housing and wages." Does he tellus how he would achieve this. No. Instead we get Willetts's crocodile tears about the plight of the young, Willetts having been in governments that have acted massivley to create the problem, pronounced in a newspaper which if anything seriouslywas done to disturb the wealth of the old or tackle inequality would scream itself hoarse. We all know what the bl--dy problem is. But like N. Timothy, it's all hand-wringing about the past, with no notion of how to remedy inherited inequality of wealth & current incomes, which past governments, mainly Tory ones, have striven to create. I wasn’t going to post the whole article, but he does suggest solutions, quite a few of which might be inferred from his concerns. E.g. pensioners should pay NI, house building should be boosted, boost payments into the pensions of the young; he complains about the disparity between pensions and benefits “The budget for pensions is over £110bn. Spending on benefits for unemployed people by contrast is a tenth of that.” and one might assume he therefore might want more to be spent on benefits? Sure, one could list much more that might be done, some which a Tory might baulk at, some which you might baulk at, but he agrees with you on a fair amount and the key point is how the ground is shifting leftwards in various ways even among Tories. And another reason I quoted him was because he was citing some data on the relative disparities, and was a bit surprised to see that sort of thing in the Telegraph.
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Post by jib on Aug 30, 2022 20:56:28 GMT
Gorbachev dead at good old age of 92.
Such a shame his reformist legacy wasn't fulfilled to full democracy in Russia.
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Post by RAF on Aug 30, 2022 21:03:08 GMT
Gorbachev dead at good old age of 92. Such a shame his reformist legacy wasn't fulfilled to full democracy in Russia. It depends what you meant by reformist. Gorbachev was a Russian nationalist and imperialist. Ask anyone from a former USSR Republic outside of Russia.
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Post by alec on Aug 30, 2022 21:08:28 GMT
Good thread looking at why the west got (and still gets) mask wearing wrong -
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 30, 2022 21:10:53 GMT
robbiealive Regarding the shift leftwards, there’s polling from 2019 indicating that people were more in favour of nationalisations in 2019 compared with 2017, (including Tories IIRC). The Guardian have just cited this in an editorial: “ A majority of Conservative voters are in favour of allowing councils to buy up empty properties and provide more social housing.” So I went looking and the polling is from Feb this year: “ A majority of Conservative voters want their party to deliver more affordable housing and let councils buy up empty properties, according to new polling which suggests that public frustration with the housing crisis is now more evenly spread across the political divide.
Two-thirds of Tories in the UK want new-build developments to include more affordable homes and 68% want higher taxes on second homes and empty properties, according to YouGov polling shared with the Guardian.”
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,205
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 30, 2022 21:26:23 GMT
Yes, if one quotes a Tory, then some may feel it apt to deliver a customary kicking. However, I should point out, that he didn’t treat the system as a “natural, inevitable process”, he did give a rationale for it: as politicians pandering to a large voting block. Which I do think is the case, however I think you are correct that it may mot be the only motive. In fairness to Willetts, after he exited front-line politics he became very reasonable. Was a bit surprised to read it in the Telegraph.
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Post by pete on Aug 30, 2022 23:02:07 GMT
I doubt many people realise just how long we have understood the science behind man-made global heating. This, from 1912, is not atypical: /photo/1 I recall reading that the first scientific paper predicting the effect was published in the 1850s. This is not surprising as it is really a very simple bit of chemistry and easily reproducible by experiment, which makes the long and highly successful rearguard action of the fossil fuel funded climate change deniers all the more remarkable. 'which makes the long and highly successful rearguard action of the fossil fuel funded climate change deniers all the more remarkable.' Not really. much of the printed press is right-wing.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 30, 2022 23:13:34 GMT
"Dont tell easily disproved lies." @danny - that's amazingly good advice. By the way - did you provide the evidence I asked for to back up your assertion that covid regulations required a negative covid test result to be included on the death certificate thus making the death officially from covid? yes- I think it was in 2020, but might have been 2021. just check back through the posts and you will find it. I'm sure you remember the discussion on ukpr(1/2) from that time. Good thread looking at why the west got (and still gets) mask wearing wrong - The argument seems to be that asian countries did very well in suppressing covid, and asian countries were early adopters of mask wearing. But i ask myself, why are they early adopters of mask wearing, and why did thy have rapid response measures in place? The answer we got in 2020 was beause they had had recent experience of corona virus outbreaks. Now, being infected with any corona virus is likely to give you some immunity to covid. Its a process we medical experts call vaccination. So...a group of countries already vaccinated against covid had less diseases. Was it really relevant whether they wore masks or not?
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Post by robbiealive on Aug 30, 2022 23:50:27 GMT
robbiealive Regarding the shift leftwards, there’s polling from 2019 indicating that people were more in favour of nationalisations in 2019 compared with 2017, (including Tories IIRC). The Guardian have just cited this in an editorial: “ A majority of Conservative voters are in favour of allowing councils to buy up empty properties and provide more social housing.” So I went looking and the polling is from Feb this year: “ A majority of Conservative voters want their party to deliver more affordable housing and let councils buy up empty properties, according to new polling which suggests that public frustration with the housing crisis is now more evenly spread across the political divide.
Two-thirds of Tories in the UK want new-build developments to include more affordable homes and 68% want higher taxes on second homes and empty properties, according to YouGov polling shared with the Guardian.” Carfrew I take yr or rather Willetts's expanded points; and there is always a problem with citing paywall articles. There may well be a leftward shift among Tory voters. After all, eg., Tory parents & grandparents want their kids to buy houses before the older generations die off. But the new regime is lurchng to the right/ Willetts as a liberal remainer would have no place in it & if he had stayed in politics he would probably have been culled in the Johnson purge! Truss in power may modify the position she presented to the membership, but the indications are that her cabinet will be lightwieght & right-wing. I hope she surprises us nd stabs a few in the back. As a privileged boomer I didnt choose when to be born & by the time I got round to voting most of the privileges had alrwady been showered on me. Indeed, the lives of my parents & their families, they born in the 1910s, were transformed after the war & they achieved a standard of living undreamt of before the War: car & house ownership, decent, secure employment, proper medical care, upward mobility for their kids. For them there was indeed a post-war boom which may have ameliorated their wartime sacrifices?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 31, 2022 5:28:18 GMT
Quite rightly there has been a lot of attention on increasing fuel prices and the difficulty that gives people being able to mange to both 'heat and eat'. Out today food inflation alone has increased to 9.3%, so it is a double whammy for those already struggling with rising energy costs. With a CPI inflation rate of 10.1% and CPIH (including housing costs) of 13.6% it will be grim for many people on low and even average earnings over the next year Meanwhile many workers are having to settle for 5% pay rises or less while CEO's awarded themselves 39% over the last year. We are not all in this together
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 5:51:56 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 6:01:15 GMT
neilj The rot set in with the Reagan/Thatcher end of the post war consensus and the concerted effort to redistribute from the poor to the rich. We are seeing in the UK now what political control by a bunch of uber right wing ,self serving ,inept social and economic luddites are capable of in a time of crisis boosted by their insane brexitanian cultism. Of course for much of the client media it doesn't matter as what you want to be the case has now replaced facts . A post truth world where victim blaming and attacks on rationality for not believing sufficiently in imaginary exceptionalism is the norm. It's like the fall of the Roman empire but with Wi-Fi
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 6:07:05 GMT
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Post by alec on Aug 31, 2022 6:10:06 GMT
@danny - "yes- I think it was in 2020, but might have been 2021. just check back through the posts and you will find it. I'm sure you remember the discussion on ukpr(1/2) from that time."
No you didn't. Please stop lying.
I have provided the evidence that easily disproves your ridiculous claims and you are simply lying. It's the most childish and immature thing you can ever do on a board like this.
Grow up, and accept that your conspiracy theories got the better of you and start recognising the truth.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 6:44:35 GMT
alec During the vast numbet of posts that you and Danny have spent disagreeing with each other it's highly likely that one or other of you have said almost anything in the last nearly three years. Please don't tell me either of you keep a record! I think we probably all need to get out more.
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Post by alec on Aug 31, 2022 7:05:54 GMT
steve - no. Danny has never posted any evidence about negative covid tests being required to be added to death certificates and thus making those deaths officially covid related, because no such evidence ever existed, as I have proven. He/she knows that, which is why they are behaving like a three year old.
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Post by jib on Aug 31, 2022 7:24:59 GMT
steve - no. Danny has never posted any evidence about negative covid tests being required to be added to death certificates and thus making those deaths officially covid related, because no such evidence ever existed, as I have proven. He/she knows that, which is why they are behaving like a three year old. alecHe's a furry little anarchist that loves endless hole digging. He's perfectly capable of posting rational material, but it gives him a kick to float ridiculous ideas that he knows are complete nonsense. There's no point reasoning with him, Hastings 2019 and all that.
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Post by bardin1 on Aug 31, 2022 7:52:05 GMT
Surely The Battle of Hastings II, the sequel, is over by now?
Can't Alec and Danny settle down to make a covid tapestry or form a covid re-enactment society instead of arguing the toss and filling this politic site with this stuff
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 8:12:32 GMT
A little reality check on Brexit benefits. Tenterden brewery featured in a government advert of the ease of trading with Europe post Brexit and the assistance from the regime. 18 months on I'll give you one guess which direction the 95% change in exports to Europe has gone ,for jibs benefit it isn't up. youtu.be/eDZEs9Rd9G8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2022 8:22:28 GMT
"Inflation in Britain could top 22 per cent on the back of high energy costs next year, Goldman Sachs has warned, as new data showed that consumers are paying record prices in the shops. Inflation, which is already in double figures at 10.1 per cent, could more than double and peak at 22.4 per cent early next year if the Ofgem price cap rises by 80 per cent in January, the US investment bank said. The forecast is based on record natural gas prices, which have risen by 90 per cent this month alone, though they fell yesterday. Goldman’s projection tops the 18.6 per cent consumer price inflation peak predicted by the US investment bank Citigroup and is far higher than the Bank of England’s expectation of a 13.3 per cent peak this October, in forecasts made at the start of this month."
Times
"LONDON, Aug 30 (Reuters) - British government bonds are on course for their biggest monthly fall since 1994, as surging energy prices create a perfect storm of higher inflation, tighter monetary policy and the prospect of greater government borrowing. Yields for interest-rate sensitive two-year gilts - as well as for 10-year bonds which factor in longer-term concerns about inflation and debt issuance - have jumped by more this month than any month since May 1994 when there was a slump in prices known as the 'Great Bond Massacre'."
Reuters
"Rishi Sunak warns of risk that markets lose faith in UK economy Former chancellor says Truss’s campaign promises could force up inflation and increase borrowing costs"
FT
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Post by alec on Aug 31, 2022 8:31:26 GMT
bardin1 - yeah, sorry for taking space, but as I've said before, I consider posters like Danny to be dangerous. The spreading of deliberate lies that kill people needs to be challenged I'm afraid. If we don't do this, we end up with Trump in power or worse. There is a large network of well funded, rightwing propagandists around, denying and minimizing covid, and whether Danny is a paid bot or just one of the simpleton saps that they rely on to spread their misinformation doesn't matter; every time he/she spreads a lie someone needs to call it out, however monotonous that might become. Sadly, the covid misinformation campaign has been brilliantly successful, with most governments succumbing to the easy path of acceptance and shifting the responsibility onto individuals, with many otherwise switched on and aware people falling for the misinformation around the idea of living with covid. I can accept that there is a a technical debate as la steve as to whether covid is a more serious global health crisis than HIV/Aids (although HIV has been around a long time, and if we continue to accept rapid covid mutations an big waves every 2 - 3 months, in twenty years time I doubt there will too much debate about which is worse) but covid is creating huge harms on the population, both in health terms but also economically and socially. We've been suckered by vested interests into thinking that it's too hard to deal with properly, and as a result we've merrily trotted along with the neoliberal mantra that there isn't anything we can do about any of this. Think global warming but on health. I don't, and never will be so complicit, and part of that means challenging the liars when they spout their rubbish.
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Post by alec on Aug 31, 2022 8:42:37 GMT
Just by way of some data, here are some details regarding covid hospitalisations of 0 - 5 year olds - /photo/1
Far from covid 'getting milder', it turns out that for this unvaccinated cohort, hospital admissions so far in 2022 are already 50% higher than the combined total for the whole of 2020 and 2021.
Stand by for those saying this isn't an issue.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 9:03:26 GMT
alec Forty years after its emergence hiv/aids is still the biggest killer of women of child bearing age in the world currently killing more than a hundred times as many people a week under 50 than covid.Realistically this is unlikely to change this decade.The potential loss of life from a virus that kills those capable of having children compared to one where the average age of mortality is over 70 is pretty obvious. I am not sure why the passage of two decades would make any difference to readily apparent data now other than to confirm it. This doesn't undermine the seriousness of covid both the virus itself and the response to it have been disastrous and from a purely medical impact position it is easily the second most serious pandemic of the twenty first century. But I do appreciate the difference between a fact based exchange and wishful thinking.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 31, 2022 9:15:45 GMT
Interesting More ot Less this morning on excess deaths They ruled put cancer diagnosis failure during the pandemic, as cancer deaths are not in excess of normal (of course this could change in the future) Most of the excess deaths was either covid or cardio vascular problems. Some of the heart attacks etc could be as a result of long covid. But it was suggested the big reason could be the problems of ambulance waiting tines and other strains on the NHS. What I find interesting is that some were claiming excess deaths would go down in the years after covid as the persons dying of covid would have died in the next few months anyway. The current figures suggest there was no basis to this theory.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 9:19:13 GMT
alec I would be careful with that data it actually indicates just four admissions " with " not necessarily or likely from covid of children under 5 in the last month.I find it extremely unlikely based on ons data which suggests that at most an average of one to three children a day under 5 will be admitted with covid that a figure of 10000+ in 8 months can be anything other than bogus. There have been no reported deaths of anyone under 5 exclusively from covid, with no comorbidity this year in the UK although a number of children have sadly died who did test positive for covid.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 9:26:15 GMT
alec I've just taken one day sample from the data set you've quoted 18th june. Which reports 415 children under 5 admitted to UK hospitals this is utter bollocks the total number of admissions that day were 797 based on ons data for age breakdown it's unlikely that more than one or two would have been under 5. I think you need to look at this data provider again.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 9:36:28 GMT
As far as I can ascertain Antonio Caramia is an Italian artist with no covid or health related professional status.
I wouldn't have made such a point of fact checking this but you did make the point about honesty in posting which I fully endorse. It just goes to show it's quite possible to be wrong without intentional dishonesty.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2022 9:45:53 GMT
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Post by alec on Aug 31, 2022 10:00:27 GMT
steve - "I am not sure why the passage of two decades would make any difference to readily apparent data now other than to confirm it." Thanks for a sensible response. While HIV is relatively stable, the fear is that covid is not, mutating at a much faster rate than was first assumed (by non-experts, including myself). Also assumed by non-experts was that covid would become progressively milder and would eventually become like another common cold. This was based on the idea that, like most colds, covid is a coronavirus. However, that is simply a man-made distinction largely based on what the virus looks like (under a microscope, it has a corona-like appearance). It's a coronavirus like the common cold in the way that a mouse is like a whale because they are both mammals. Covid is actually a sars virus, and all the sars viruses are very dangerous. Colds don't even activate the adaptive immune response, which is why they don't make you that ill and why you don't build immunity. Covid does, yet we still lose immunity very rapidly - something that is really puzzling virologists, who have never seen anything like this before. There is absolute no reason to think that covid will mutate to become progressively milder, but there is already emerging evidence to suggest the reverse. Genomic analysis has found four likely mutations which would lead to a far more serious disease, much more in line with sars1 (killed anything from 20 - 50% of those infected) with wholesale immune evasion from existing strains and vaccines - unless we get back to Operation Warp Speed vaccine development for neutralising pan-coronavirus jabs. So the future of covid is yet to be written, and we are in no way through this pandemic in all likelihood. So I think left to it's own devices, covid risks becoming far more devastating than you perhaps imagine, in the same way that some believe smallpox was pretty harmless for several centuries, before mutating into an absolute killer. Smallpox mutates far more slowly than covid. On the hospitalisation of under 5s, the data looks about right. I wonder whether you are mixing daily and weekly totals? There have been extended periods throughout Omicron when under 5s were being admitted to hospital at a rate of around 500 per week, and I posted on those numbers at the time. There were also periods when under 5s were a surprisingly high proportion of the total admissions, depending on the progress of the waves through the population. Either way, I think the point stands, and has been covered elsewhere: Omicron did lead to a hugely elevated number of hospitalisations among children, with this being particularly notable for the under 5s. Given the proven impacts on brain chemistry and the sensitivity of developing brains, we can't yet say how serious this could be, but a large number of dementia experts are deeply concerned that we may face a wave of early onset dementia in the years to come because we allowed so much 'mild' infection by covid. Time will tell, but I don't think anyone should claim certainty about this, and I also don't think anyone should every say it wasn't so bad, based on current mortality rates. There is lots of evidence emerging that this will only tell a small part of the story. I'm just reading the experts and relaying what they are saying, and what isn't being widely reported in the mainstream media.
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