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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 25, 2022 17:37:41 GMT
The King is dead.
Long live the Kwasi.
Saddle up and take another ride on the next Tory donkey.
You know it makes sense.
ššš¦
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Post by hireton on Aug 25, 2022 17:37:44 GMT
Re the energy sector's bail out proposal, I cannot see how such a huge contingent liability could be taken on by the UK Government without long-term close involvement in business decisions of the energy companies, regulation of prices, profits and dividends and so on.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 25, 2022 17:38:32 GMT
Iāve no idea why anyone is taken in by the illusion that he is even remotely undecided about whether he will vote for Truss in the next GE, when she is PM. I've no idea why anyone should care who I vote for. I don't care about your voting record. Why on earth you should question my voting intention is beyond me. Why does it have any significance for you? Do you intend to demand proof of voting from me ?. Everyone else too....or just me ? Weird ! I think as one of the few confirmed Tory voters here your opinions may be sometimes viewed by some as some kind of bellweather, representative of wider Tory voting sentiment which I imagine they probably are not.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 25, 2022 17:43:56 GMT
JIB is right to point out that British elections, including the EU Ref, are decided, for better or for worse, by those who vote & that speculations about the those who didn't vote are likely to reflect the views of the person speculating. I don't undertsand the position of those who didn't vote in 2016 on the grounds that the process was flawed, or that they couldn't make up their minds, befuddled as they were by the pros & cons of EU membership, etc. If you can't make a decision, then the decison is made for you. Our only guide to the views of the abstainers in 2016 are the data on turnout. It was first thought that turnout was v low among the young but subsequently it appears that turnout for those under 50 was about 65% & that 70% of younger voters supported Remain. The turnout was v high, 90%+ among those aged 65+, about as high as it gets, who voted 3:1 in favour of Leave. The best we can say is that the aging Leavers seized their chance & that those who didn't vote were younger & probably more inclinded to Remain than Leave. For me the fact that the geriatrics blighted the future of the young was Brexit's worst feature. The young, although my sample is drawn from the educated, middle-class households of my acquaintance, are far more mobile internationally than my stay-at-home generation, both with respect to their movements & their partners, and deserved better from their parents or more likely their grand-parents: but in the end the bastards did not vote. Of course if (a) Cameron could have extended the vote to the 16-18 group; but that would have course have increased the pressure to lower the voting age in general: anathema to a voter-suppression Tory party OR (b) Corbyn could have used his supposed ability to inspire & thus to mobilise the young: but for that he would have had to be inspired by Remain himself. PS. I may be wrong on the 2016 voter analysis. We could do with more input on this & more recent polling from James E, that most lucid & affable of our polling experts. I have been stalking him & know that he logs-on at regular intervals: he just doesn't post. It resulted in real, unfortunate and wide-spread inter-generational hostility, including in my own family some of which will likely never be overcome. I understand a similar dynamic exists in the US with estrangement between Republican older parents and Democratic young people. In the American company I work for I've even heard unfortunate talk of people not wanting to take their young kids to see their grandparents.
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Post by lens on Aug 25, 2022 17:44:27 GMT
Johnson didn't follow the advice of scientists, with late applied lockdowns killing tens of thousands of citizens, extending far longer than they would have done if they had been applied earlier, and of course failing to target those measures that would have avoided the need for lockdowns in the first place, as in places like New Zealand, Japan and S Korea. No alec. If there is one big difference between the UK and (especially) New Zealand, it's that Covid arrived in the UK very early, and before anybody in the world really appreciated it. Check the facts - the UK went into lockdown between the 16th and 23rd of March 2020 - almost exactly the same as New Zealand. The reason why the UK had so many cases is that it was one of the first countries to have a lot of "silent" cases right at the start, many coming in via being caught in ski resorts in the Alps in January/February 2020. Having arrived there even earlier via the Wuhan connection with northern italy. It was a perfect storm - apres-ski being an ideal ground for spreading, and with skiers tending to be younger and fitter than average it was just seen as "I've had a bit of flu" at first. Half-term didn't help, children on ski holidays picking it up and spreading when they returned to school in March. The reason New Zealand fared better for deaths is simply that they didn't have the geography to get so many cases so early, and low population density and less mass transit helped control spread when a few cases did come. But the UK was not substantially later than many countries with measures such as lockdown. And it increasingly seems that lockdowns have served to delay cases rather than prevent them. I think that was fully justified early on, mainly to stop the health service getting overwhelmed, but also to delay infections until most people were vaccinated. Where I'd agree lockdown should have been stricter was around closing schools around Christmas 2020 - remember the farce in January 2021 when schools reopened for a day before shutting for months? Remember the government trying to assure us that there was no spread in schools!? Look at excess deaths and you see two peaks around April 2020 and December 2020/January 2021, but after that not much at all. I put that down to vaccinations, and once most people were vaccinated, there was little point in any lockdown or measures such as mask wearing. Scotland kept their restrictions far longer than England - but didn't do any better because of it, in fact they were worse over this period. Coming back to New Zealand, then after a good first year, they were slow with their vaccine programme, and kept restrictions far longer even after most were vaccinated. And guess what? They now have a daily mortality rate per capita worse than the UK, and have inflicted more damage on their economy than was probably necessary. Full marks to them initially - but that success didn't last.
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 17:44:30 GMT
colin - "In general I don't like these universal interventions which benefit rich and poor alike. Targeted support allows for more per capita to the most needy. But this energy cap thing is so urgent-upon us now-and so serious and significant , even for middle earners, that speed & simplicity are of the essence." Those views make sense, certainly. One point though, that Starmer seems to have been pushing, is that a universal scheme helps keep general inflation down. I may be wrong, but I thought I saw a snippet where he claimed a 4% benefit to CPI inflation? Whether that number is true or stacks up I don't know, but that is a big consideration. I also think the 6 month time frame shouldn't be discounted; next spring the energy picture could be substantially different, and we are already seeing food and other commodity prices starting to fall, so perhaps a more temporary measure is more sensible at this stage. And it is worth recalling that price regulation is being practised in many other countries. Few seem to be going for enforced consumer borrowing, tbh.
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 17:47:44 GMT
lens - "And it increasingly seems that lockdowns have served to delay cases rather than prevent them." No it doesn't. Stop being silly. The evidence is increasingly suggesting that lockdowns saved tens of thousands of lives, thanks to giving the world time to get vaccinated. Daft.
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 17:53:06 GMT
Interesting experiences in Scotland this week; in two major supermarkets, most staff were masked, around 15% of customers likewise. Then, in a major SW tourist venue, indoor staff were masked, signs everywhere recommending masking, a lot of customers masking where asked, except for the English (most Scots back to school now, other foreigners following the advice).
It's anecdotal, but levels of masking seem way beyond what we see south of the border.
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Post by lens on Aug 25, 2022 17:57:56 GMT
lens - "And it increasingly seems that lockdowns have served to delay cases rather than prevent them." Stop being silly. The evidence is increasingly suggesting that lockdowns saved tens of thousands of lives, thanks to giving the world time to get vaccinated. Are you unable to read, alec? If you were, you may have taken in the very next sentence in my previous post - "I think that {lockdowns} was fully justified early on, mainly to stop the health service getting overwhelmed, but also to delay infections until most people were vaccinated."Which is pretty much what you refer to above. "saving... lives, thanks to giving the world time to get vaccinated." I wouldn't mind, except for your arrogance and conviction that anybody who disagrees with you is not only wrong but stupid. I suggest you read other people's replies and try to understand before replying. Do you not understand that delaying an infection until after vaccination may be what saved a life, even if it didn't stop the infection?
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 25, 2022 18:01:13 GMT
Interesting experiences in Scotland this week; in two major supermarkets, most staff were masked, around 15% of customers likewise. Then, in a major SW tourist venue, indoor staff were masked, signs everywhere recommending masking, a lot of customers masking where asked, except for the English (most Scots back to school now, other foreigners following the advice). It's anecdotal, but levels of masking seem way beyond what we see south of the border. Are you sure they weren't robbing the place? I hear banditry is rife in Scotland now and that the SNP Government has totally lost control of crime. As they have refuse collection in many Scottish cities too, I gather.
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 18:01:57 GMT
"Leading Sage scientists says Sunak to blame if economic case against lockdown overlooked, because he was chancellor
Prof John Edmunds, head of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and one of the most prominent and influential figures on Sage during the pandemic, has responded to Rishi Sunakās criticism of the pandemic scientists. He says that if Sunak thinks the economic consequences of lockdown did not receive enough attention, then Sunak himself is to blame, because as chancellor he should have been commissioning that analysis.
In a statement for the Science Media Centre, Edmunds said:
It is not well understood, but Sageās role was quite narrow: to review and assess the scientific evidence to help inform the decision-makers. It did not consider the economic aspects ā it was not asked to do so and was not constituted to do so.
There may be some truth to the argument that the scientific evidence often outweighed the economic data; however, the answer is not to get less scientific evidence (or ignore some scientific evidence), but to build up a clearer picture of the economic and wider impact of different policies, using the best evidence available at the time. I am not aware of this happening in a systematic, open, peer-reviewed way.
Where, for instance, was the equivalent of Sage and all its subgroups on the economic side? Was there an army of economists in universities and research institutes across the country working night and day to collect, sift, analyse and project the possible impact of different policies? And if not, why not? As the chancellor of the exchequer Mr Sunak could have set up such a system, but did not."
Good to see scientists fighting back against the right wing revisionists.
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Post by mandolinist on Aug 25, 2022 18:02:29 GMT
pjw1961 I have just read your amazing pieces on the covid specific thread, not a place I have previously spent much time, thank you for posting them. A well written collection of interesting and thoughtful experiences. Thanks again.
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 18:04:44 GMT
lens - lockdowns kept infections down, they didn't just delay them. The better option though would have been a faster reacting government with far more effective public health measures.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 25, 2022 18:31:07 GMT
lens - "And it increasingly seems that lockdowns have served to delay cases rather than prevent them." No it doesn't. Stop being silly. The evidence is increasingly suggesting that lockdowns saved tens of thousands of lives, thanks to giving the world time to get vaccinated. Daft. By pushing all those infected back into care homes then saying no one else could go in. Thus killing both the carers and those being cared for. They had had a dummy run in 2016, or whenever it was, and (apparently) had identified that a shortage of PPE could be a problem. (We don't know officially, because for some reason they have refused to publish the results of the exercise; I'm sure they have good reasons for keeping it secret.)
However we do know unofficially that we needed lots of PPE, and that, as it has a limited shelf-life, we decided not to buy any; we then had the stupid situation of not being able to get any because everybody else wanted them too. Opps! What the fuck is the point of having an exercise to see where your weak points are if you don't then act on it? They are worse than incompetent.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 25, 2022 18:37:13 GMT
Are you sure they weren't robbing the place? I hear banditry is rife in Scotland now and that the SNP Government has totally lost control of crime. You've been reading the Daily Mail again.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 25, 2022 18:44:56 GMT
Are you sure they weren't robbing the place? I hear banditry is rife in Scotland now and that the SNP Government has totally lost control of crime. You've been reading the Daily Mail again. I was only joking, guv. That and an inclination to want to take the piss out of the SNP from time to time. I find their schtick a bit holier than thou, bordering on residing up their own backsides.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 18:45:35 GMT
I think as one of the few confirmed Tory voters here your opinions may be sometimes viewed by some as some kind of bellweather, representative of wider Tory voting sentiment which I imagine they probably are not. Then why decide how I will vote two years before a GE? We will see what his answer to my question is-assuming he answers it. You are right of course. My political opinions are not representative of anything except me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 18:51:49 GMT
colin - "In general I don't like these universal interventions which benefit rich and poor alike. Targeted support allows for more per capita to the most needy. But this energy cap thing is so urgent-upon us now-and so serious and significant , even for middle earners, that speed & simplicity are of the essence." Those views make sense, certainly. One point though, that Starmer seems to have been pushing, is that a universal scheme helps keep general inflation down. I may be wrong, but I thought I saw a snippet where he claimed a 4% benefit to CPI inflation? Whether that number is true or stacks up I don't know, but that is a big consideration. I also think the 6 month time frame shouldn't be discounted; next spring the energy picture could be substantially different, and we are already seeing food and other commodity prices starting to fall, so perhaps a more temporary measure is more sensible at this stage. And it is worth recalling that price regulation is being practised in many other countries. Few seem to be going for enforced consumer borrowing, tbh. His claim on inflation effect-actually about half of his funding package-was roundly scotched by IFS and others. If it has any validity then it will be true of the Scottish POwer proposal too. I doubt very much whether 6 months will see the end of this. There are plenty of forecasts going out two years and beyond. The repayment of the Deficit Fund doesn't have to be solely by consumers. There can be a windfall tax element too.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 25, 2022 18:54:10 GMT
pjw1961 I have just read your amazing pieces on the covid specific thread, not a place I have previously spent much time, thank you for posting them. A well written collection of interesting and thoughtful experiences. Thanks again. Thanks mandolinist. It is all quite surreal in retrospect and it is surprising how quickly you forget unless you write things down. It is all back to trying to deal with the crisis in A&E and worrying about Cancer backlogs, while in the meantime the Trust goes broke because all the extra funding has vanished - i.e. the NHS 'normal' under a Tory government.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 25, 2022 19:14:00 GMT
Interesting experiences in Scotland this week; in two major supermarkets, most staff were masked, around 15% of customers likewise. Then, in a major SW tourist venue, indoor staff were masked, signs everywhere recommending masking, a lot of customers masking where asked, except for the English (most Scots back to school now, other foreigners following the advice). It's anecdotal, but levels of masking seem way beyond what we see south of the border. Even I don't normally wear one to the supermarket anymore as literally no-one does, and I was one of the last holdouts. I even didn't wear one on the train the other day as I forgot it and I did feel bad as a few people were still wearing them. It made me feel weirdly unclothed, as I was so used to wearing one in that situation. We took loads of masks with us when we went to Italy over the summer, expecting mask wearing there to be significantly higher than here but actually it was about the same, maybe a slightly higher observance, but not so you'd really notice. I do still make a point of wearing one on the train, or in an aircraft and largely in small shops.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 25, 2022 19:18:48 GMT
Lucid Talk NI poll
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Post by davwel on Aug 25, 2022 19:28:10 GMT
I am uncertain that the predicted very high peaks in the cost-of-living will actually happen, and wonder if some Truss supporters are pushing to get them exaggerated, published, and fixed in most people`s minds. Then when Liz is PM and the prices don`t reach the peak, or she starts to bring them down 9 to 15 months hence, she will try to convince voters that it is is her skilful leadership responsible.
And so she draws back support for the Tories in time for a general election. - Petrol prices have fallen substantially in the last few weeks, I reckon the UK is going to have good grain yields after a dryish summer, and there is plenty of scope for living with lower mean temperatures in our houses, workplaces and public buildings - mean room temps in the UK have increased much since the 1970s. The major wave of strikes will also reduce general expenditure, and keep down our internal UK pressure on inflation.
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Post by davem on Aug 25, 2022 19:31:14 GMT
On the issues of funding any freeze in energy prices, I agree that this would take a significant amount of money and that the windfall tax would not cover it, so why not use the windfall tax and other funding to provide loans to energy supply companies, which can be paid back in either cash or shares. I would imagine that the companies might end up passing shares onto the state, especially if there was a continuation of price regulation.
This could provide a back door route to nationalisation.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 25, 2022 19:59:08 GMT
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Post by lens on Aug 25, 2022 20:04:56 GMT
Interesting experiences in Scotland this week; in two major supermarkets, most staff were masked, around 15% of customers likewise. ........ It's anecdotal, but levels of masking seem way beyond what we see south of the border. If it's anecdotal, it dowsn't correspond with what I saw on two weeks holiday in the north of Scotland a week or two ago! Masks were a rarity - even more so than the south of England - and I didn't see a single one in either hotel we stayed in. (Staff or guests.) Same pretty much all over - the exception being staff on with public employers who I understood insisted on them being worn. Didn't apply generally to private businesses. None worn on flights up to the north, and virtually none at the airports there. Came back on the train from Aberdeen to London a week ago and again, not a single mask in the whole carriage all journey (which was full) apart from one lady who travelled (I think) from Dundee to Edinburgh. I can only surmise that everyone has realised that in spite of the extra 6 months of restrictions in Scotland (including masks) Scotland didn't benefit at all in Covid rates compared to England, so are giving the posters (which I did see) little attention.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 25, 2022 20:11:55 GMT
I've no idea why anyone should care who I vote for. I don't care about your voting record. Why on earth you should question my voting intention is beyond me. Why does it have any significance for you? Do you intend to demand proof of voting from me ?. Everyone else too....or just me ? Weird ! I think as one of the few confirmed Tory voters here your opinions may be sometimes viewed by some as some kind of bellweather, representative of wider Tory voting sentiment which I imagine they probably are not. What an effrontery an invasion of privacy. Coming on a site about polling and Asking someone how they might vote!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 20:13:34 GMT
Iāve no idea why anyone is taken in by the illusion that he is even remotely undecided about whether he will vote for Truss in the next GE, when she is PM. I've no idea why anyone should care who I vote for. I don't care about your voting record. Why on earth you should question my voting intention is beyond me. Why does it have any significance for you? Do you intend to demand proof of voting from me ?. Everyone else too....or just me ? Weird ! Well, you summed up your little outburst extremely well - very weird indeed. I couldnāt give a toss who you vote for - though you have actually provided fairly detailed records over the years as have many posters on this forum, so thatās hardly unusual. Suffice it to say that I donāt take your doubts about Truss any more seriously that I did when you ādoubtedā Johnson or May although, as I observed a while back, with Corbyn or the Lib Dems the only alternatives at the time that was pretty easy to understand. Truss v Starmer? A lot less easy but Iāve already offered my own guess - though that doesnāt indicate that I care much either way.
As for your third line, well, I donāt think that warrants any response at all, itās just too silly. Tata.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipā¦
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 25, 2022 20:15:42 GMT
Boris Johnson supporters tantalisingly close to their dream of a veto on PMās ousting
Petition calling for constitution to be altered to allow vote on whether to accept premierās resignation nears required 10,000 signatures
ā¦
āIt means that if a further 1,300 validated members sign the petition, the party will have to look at changing its constitution and allow a ballot on whether to accept Mr Johnson's resignation.
This would potentially throw the existing leadership election into chaos, as any ballot will almost certainly take place after the winner has been announced a week on Monday.
Lord Cruddas told The Telegraph: "I believe it is only a matter of time before the 10,000 threshold is met. We have had 250 new signatures in the last 24 hours that look legitimate. ā¦.
However, a senior Tory source close to the Prime Minister said when those comments were reported: āHe does not support any campaign to put him on the leadership ballot and will back whoever is the next leader.āā
Telegraph
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 20:17:11 GMT
Hear hear!!!!!!! Preferably š§ camembert cheese š§ from the Cheddar Mountains.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 25, 2022 20:20:14 GMT
Hear hear!!!!!!! Preferably š§ camembert cheese š§ from the Cheddar Mountains. Or Dunlop cheese from old tyres?
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