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Post by davwel on Aug 25, 2022 13:39:15 GMT
I was not impressed by Sunak`s performance on BBC W @ One this lunchtime.
He claimed that the best way to achieve levelling-up was by education, and didn`t have anything to say on spending equally on the peripheral English regions as on London and the SE, nor on paying for greater spending in the three smaller nations. Surely Sunak realises that equalising spending on schools will start to yield results only in 10 years time.
Why not spend as much now on transport in N. England as the South to help the North`s deprived regions? And shouldn`t the HS2 line have been started in the North?, or better still been abandoned as it gives an even greater advantage to the South, and this directly impedes levelling-up.
Another silly unwarranted claim by Sunak was that the Isle of Wight is one of the most deprived areas "in the country". I acknowledge that Ofsted has found the schools poor, but surely the two secondaries rated as well below average are much better than many secondaries in inner cities. And how many public roads are there in the IoW that are so potholed that the households living along them need 4x4 vehicles to avoid being stranded? As for the cost and frequency of ferries to reach the mainland, is the IoW really as deprived as the people living on Harris, Lewis and the Northern Isles. And is the IoW crime rate as bad as Liverpool and London?
Sunak has regularly shown in this leadership contest that he is totally unfit to be PM, let alone CoE.
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Post by graham on Aug 25, 2022 13:44:22 GMT
''For anyone still in denial about why Labour is leading in the polls: This poll has *18%* of 2019 Tory voters switching to Labour. For reference - in 1997, Blair managed to get about 14-15% of Tory voters to switch'' The above from Josh via Alec. In addition to the LD 7% or so Steve refers to another big difference is that the Tory vote share lead over Lab in '92 was around half the margin in 2019. 18% direct Tory-Lab without any the other way would give Lab a 2% or so lead over the Tories. Demographics widen the Lab lead further by 2-3% plus a net favourable outcome from churn through the LDs and then we have the DK/WV part of the Tory 2019 Voter base. All encouraging for Lab and if they can keep the direct switching at net over 10% (including the 2019 voters now saying DK/WV) no Tory OM is assured. Hard to see a meaningful sustainable recovery for over a year and quite possibly well in to 2024; and we may well see further widening by next spring. @jim Jam
At risk of perhaps being a bit pedantic the Tory GB lead in 1992 was 7.6% whereas in 2019 it was 11.6%. However, when allowance is made for Labour's loss of Scotland post 2014 the results are much closer. Had Labour already suffered its losses in Scotland by 1992 the Tory lead in GB that year would have been circa 9.5%. In terms of England & Wales the 2019 outcome falls somewhere between the 1987 and 1992 results.
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Post by pete on Aug 25, 2022 14:22:07 GMT
See where we are after we (finally!) get a new Tory leader and the party conferences are over. There is small straw in the wind I think. Kwarteng ( presumably CoE by Conference time) is reported to be engaging seriously with the Scottish Power proposal on energy costs This is the grown up version of Starmer's timid , six months, questionably funded price freeze. The proposal is a two year freeze at current cap , funded by bank loans to producers . Loans guaranteed by the State (3). Repaid over a decade or more by consumers/taxpayers/ whoever is the grown up version of Starmer's....I've no idea why people call you snide.
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Post by robbiealive on Aug 25, 2022 14:22:57 GMT
Colin - I think you and I recognised that Inflation would be the bigger threat to Tory support (as opposed to just Johnson) way back over a year ago but could not envision this war induced 'core' level. I have also being saying for well over a year that the real mid-term in this parliament would be spring/summer 2023 due to Covid delaying normal chronology. In this context a widening in the next 9 months would imo occur whatever the current position is. I did not, though, expect regular 10%+ plus Lab leads this early; and, they may well not hold. In fact it was another poster altogther who first drew attention on here (to a somewhat sceptical reception) to the alarming rate of food-price inflation & the potential political fallout of price rises. I think it was PJW1961, but unfortunately I cannot be certain it was indeed that congenial stalwart. Polling is fraught as it cannot allow for "events, dear boy, events": in this case the Ukraine war & second Johnson's bizarre self-destructive tendencies followed by this weirdest of leadership elections.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 25, 2022 15:02:13 GMT
There is small straw in the wind I think. Kwarteng ( presumably CoE by Conference time) is reported to be engaging seriously with the Scottish Power proposal on energy costs This is the grown up version of Starmer's timid , six months, questionably funded price freeze. The proposal is a two year freeze at current cap , funded by bank loans to producers . Loans guaranteed by the State (3). Repaid over a decade or more by consumers/taxpayers/ whoever is the grown up version of Starmer's....I've no idea why people call you snide. The idea that anything from this rabble of a govt could be 'grown up' is risible
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Post by robbiealive on Aug 25, 2022 15:02:17 GMT
JIB is right to point out that British elections, including the EU Ref, are decided, for better or for worse, by those who vote & that speculations about the those who didn't vote are likely to reflect the views of the person speculating. I don't undertsand the position of those who didn't vote in 2016 on the grounds that the process was flawed, or that they couldn't make up their minds, befuddled as they were by the pros & cons of EU membership, etc. If you can't make a decision, then the decison is made for you.
Our only guide to the views of the abstainers in 2016 are the data on turnout.
It was first thought that turnout was v low among the young but subsequently it appears that turnout for those under 50 was about 65% & that 70% of younger voters supported Remain. The turnout was v high, 90%+ among those aged 65+, about as high as it gets, who voted 3:1 in favour of Leave. The best we can say is that the aging Leavers seized their chance & that those who didn't vote were younger & probably more inclinded to Remain than Leave.
For me the fact that the geriatrics blighted the future of the young was Brexit's worst feature. The young, although my sample is drawn from the educated, middle-class households of my acquaintance, are far more mobile internationally than my stay-at-home generation, both with respect to their movements & their partners, and deserved better from their parents or more likely their grand-parents: but in the end the bastards did not vote. Of course if (a) Cameron could have extended the vote to the 16-18 group; but that would have course have increased the pressure to lower the voting age in general: anathema to a voter-suppression Tory party OR (b) Corbyn could have used his supposed ability to inspire & thus to mobilise the young: but for that he would have had to be inspired by Remain himself.
PS. I may be wrong on the 2016 voter analysis. We could do with more input on this & more recent polling from James E, that most lucid & affable of our polling experts. I have been stalking him & know that he logs-on at regular intervals: he just doesn't post.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 25, 2022 15:21:59 GMT
jimJam/robbiealive
I don't think any of us should be surprised that inflation, or Mr Rising Price as we used to call our now almost forgotten old friend back in the day, has taken its toll politically on the incumbents.
Falling livid standards, even destitution for some people, doesn't usually go down well with voters. I can't think of a time when high inflation didn't spell unpopularity for governments, irrespective of whether they were responsible for it by dint of their failed monetary or fiscal policies or were hapless victims of external factors like oil price shocks and key imported commodity cost surges. People don't like the pound in their pocket not going as far as it did. Rich and poor alike.
Wilson used to get worried about balance of payment deficits and unemployment levels above one million. Those days have gone, but inflation detrimentally effects just about everyone and is usually electorally fatal for the incumbents. It's return after a 40 year absence is changing the political as well as economic landscape.
If the Tories don't get the lid on it by 2024 I expect they'll be finished.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 25, 2022 15:35:03 GMT
mercian I appreciate that most of your posts are unserious and some do occasionally actually amuse me. I can also well understand, as you admit, that they all greatly amuse yourself. No problem with any of that but great humourists don't often have to signal when they are being humourous, nor do they berate their audience for failing to be amused by it. Indeed, as Mr Guppy in Bleak House said, "self-praise is no recommendation".
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 15:40:09 GMT
There is small straw in the wind I think. Kwarteng ( presumably CoE by Conference time) is reported to be engaging seriously with the Scottish Power proposal on energy costs This is the grown up version of Starmer's timid , six months, questionably funded price freeze. The proposal is a two year freeze at current cap , funded by bank loans to producers . Loans guaranteed by the State (3). Repaid over a decade or more by consumers/taxpayers/ whoever is the grown up version of Starmer's....I've no idea why people call you snide. I’ve no idea why anyone is taken in by the illusion that he is even remotely undecided about whether he will vote for Truss in the next GE, when she is PM. It is just the “rationale” that will supposedly explain why that decision is taken that needs working out. Not that I am any different - I voted for Corbyn ffs and couldn’t stand him. But I don’t pretend to be seriously analysing what the Tories are offering come 2024, I’ve seen all the earlier films, ta very much.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 25, 2022 15:46:02 GMT
There is small straw in the wind I think. Kwarteng ( presumably CoE by Conference time) is reported to be engaging seriously with the Scottish Power proposal on energy costs This is the grown up version of Starmer's timid , six months, questionably funded price freeze. The proposal is a two year freeze at current cap , funded by bank loans to producers . Loans guaranteed by the State (3). Repaid over a decade or more by consumers/taxpayers/ whoever is the grown up version of Starmer's....I've no idea why people call you snide. Ah, Kwarteng - a future Tory leader? Next time, just maybe next time………….
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 25, 2022 16:08:11 GMT
robbiealive
Of course you're right; if you choose not to participate in elections then you leave the determination of the outcome to those who do. Sometimes abstentions can be because people don't care or are genuinely undecided about the issues or the choice. They may want to say a plague on all your houses and want their abstention to be seen as a gesture of contempt for the process, particularly if its a referendum. That was my excuse in 2016. I regret it now.
I'm ambivalent overall. I rarely abstain, the 2016 EU Referendum being the only time I've ever done so in a nationwide election, but I do respect those who argue that abstention is a legitimate thing to be able to do in a democracy, especially if the choices on offer are unpalatable to you.
On balance, for the reasons you outline, I think people should exercise their right to vote and have slowly come to the view that they should be legally obliged to do so too, certainly at general elections. I think it's a civic obligation and avoids elections always being decided by the same old demographic.
The turnouts these days, coupled with the extraordinary levels of non-registration, have got us to a place where barely 50% of adult citizens are now participating in elections that determine the fate and fortunes of us all. To me, we're sleepwalking to a sub-democracy.
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 16:09:41 GMT
Ah! So not taxing the energy giants making vast profits and redirecting this to keep consumers bills down, and withdrawing government support for energy efficiency measures that would help consumers, in favour of forcing said consumers to borrow billions and keep their energy bills higher for years to come is "grown up". Our colin lives down a strange avenue, does he not?
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 16:19:58 GMT
Sunak going dangerously down the right wing rabbit holes that this extremist Tory party love so much.
I saw plenty of discussion among scientists about the negative impacts of lockdowns, and I read several Sage minutes that discussed all aspects of lockdowns and other mitigations. They has teams of behavioural scientists and sociologists, amongst many other specialisms, all adding into the advisory process.
And of course, this far right fake history that Sunak is promoting is part of the anti science agenda that the far right push. Sunak has clearly airbrushed the truth that on many occasions, Johnson didn't follow the advice of scientists, with late applied lockdowns killing tens of thousands of citizens, extending far longer than they would have done if they had been applied earlier, and of course failing to target those measures that would have avoided the need for lockdowns in the first place, as in places like New Zealand, Japan and S Korea.
By contrast, Sunak sat down with members of HART and other far right influencer groups (one member of HART has today admitting to trying to "seed the idea" that vaccines caused covid, based on data showing a period of covid risk post jab, before the vaccine had had a chance to work), and worked to derail sensible public health measures, including ensuring a bigger and more damaging wave through his Eat out to Help Out scheme.
This is historical revisionism, without doubt. It's been dutifully reported by the BBC, who have failed to adequately interrogate the idea, and this is the next stage of denialism: now looking backwards to claim it all never happened.
Unfortunately, covid is already onto this, preparing for it's fourth wave in nine months, crippling the NHS, messing up another school year and disabling and killing many citizens, even while Tories try to claim it was all the scientists fault.
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Post by steve on Aug 25, 2022 16:26:23 GMT
alec Covid isn't preparing for anything it's a virus.
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Post by domjg on Aug 25, 2022 16:27:14 GMT
is the grown up version of Starmer's....I've no idea why people call you snide. Ah, Kwarteng - a future Tory leader? Next time, just maybe next time…………. He'll only have to wait a couple of years tops! Maybe that's the rationale behind the leadership contest merry go rounds. To give everyone a go!
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 25, 2022 16:27:15 GMT
The lady in this clip might not be voting Conservative.
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Post by steve on Aug 25, 2022 16:38:42 GMT
Ipsos sky news poll just out. 40% of low income families already struggling to pay their energy bills but over 20% of those on £55000+ family income also in difficulty. The poll also itemized that this isn't just worries but that over 25% have already taken active steps to try and reduce their payments.
This is before the 80%+ rise predicted tomorrow.
On being confronted by the data cosplay Maggie responded with some total bollocks about her past success ( with a fair smattering of blatant lies Spaffer would be so proud)and a rinse and repeat of the same garbage about tax cuts.
If this is what we can expect apart from being the biggest act of political hari kari by any political party in the last forty years it also has the very real risk of triggering a depression and civil unrest.
Ffs Tory supporters is this really the best you can manage?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 16:41:04 GMT
Ah! So not taxing the energy giants making vast profits and redirecting this to keep consumers bills down, and withdrawing government support for energy efficiency measures that would help consumers, in favour of forcing said consumers to borrow billions and keep their energy bills higher for years to come is "grown up". Our colin lives down a strange avenue, does he not? I am reading reports that Kwarteng is looking at windfall taxes. I think he should.
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Post by steve on Aug 25, 2022 16:43:15 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 16:47:11 GMT
Kantar do similar as Opinium so is consistent with most other recent polls and is a 1.5% swing on their previous poll as well. Colin - I think you and I recognised that Inflation would be the bigger threat to Tory support (as opposed to just Johnson) way back over a year ago but could not envision this war induced 'core' level. I have also being saying for well over a year that the real mid-term in this parliament would be spring/summer 2023 due to Covid delaying normal chronology. In this context a widening in the next 9 months would imo occur whatever the current position is. I did not, though, expect regular 10%+ plus Lab leads this early; and, they may well not hold. In fact it is hard to imagine that Truss will not introduce a major support package and, whilst there will be some 'U Turn' flak and chatter about pinching Labours' ideas that may reduce the impact, some Tory support will return in the autumn as I see it. The winter, though, could be brutal for some people and for public services, especially the NHS which will lead imo to a more sustained 10% plus Lab lead pushing 15% by next May's locals. She will have to. I think much of her patter for the members will soon come up against the reality which Gove mentioned. Have you seen this ? news.sky.com/story/cost-of-living-one-third-of-households-already-struggling-to-pay-energy-bills-even-without-next-price-cap-hike-12680589
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 25, 2022 16:54:27 GMT
is the grown up version of Starmer's....I've no idea why people call you snide. The idea that anything from this rabble of a govt could be 'grown up' is risible It isn't grown up at all. The proposal feather beds and protects the energy companies' profits at the expense of the taxpayer and customers who will pay. Also involves expensive private borrowing instead if cheaper public borrowing. It is another massive rip-off similar to the bank bailouts, where private profit is protected at public expense. It is a terrible idea - essentially just energy company propaganda - and worse that Starmer's. Of course it ticks all the Tory boxes, so something of the sort may well happen.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 25, 2022 16:56:24 GMT
In fact it was another poster altogther who first drew attention on here (to a somewhat sceptical reception) to the alarming rate of food-price inflation & the potential political fallout of price rises. I think it was PJW1961, but unfortunately I cannot be certain it was indeed that congenial stalwart. I don't know who it was, but it wasn't me.
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Post by neilj on Aug 25, 2022 16:57:28 GMT
Latest Redfield Wiltonpoll, a slight tightening
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Post by Danny on Aug 25, 2022 17:00:12 GMT
Sunak going dangerously down the right wing rabbit holes that this extremist Tory party love so much. I saw plenty of discussion among scientists about the negative impacts of lockdowns, and I read several Sage minutes that discussed all aspects of lockdowns and other mitigations. They has teams of behavioural scientists and sociologists, amongst many other specialisms, all adding into the advisory process. And of course, this far right fake history that Sunak is promoting is part of the anti science agenda that the far right push. Sunak has clearly airbrushed the truth that on many occasions, Johnson didn't follow the advice of scientists, with late applied lockdowns killing tens of thousands of citizens, extending far longer than they would have done if they had been applied earlier, and of course failing to target those measures that would have avoided the need for lockdowns in the first place, as in places like New Zealand, Japan and S Korea. Ok, so let's stop there a moment and analyse that. Sunak was there at the cabinet table and is reporting what he witnessed. Sure he will be tailoring hus revelation to make his own case, bur there is no reason for you to call him a liar too. Politicians generally lie by selective choice of true facts, so his revelations are likely accurate. I read the published Sage minutes in the early months and they very clearly stated they were in no way taking into account factors other than the strictly medical, and stating explicitly it was the task of government to do that before choosing a course of action. Moreover sage advice was very selective and limited to answering specific questions, such as what could be done if the government chose to intervene. Much less about whether thus was likely to succeed, merely it was what was possible. Their estimates of outcomes stated they had limited hard facts from which to extrapolate and relied upon modelling of what they considered worst credible outcome As bad as it could possibly be.In the event the stomata were wildly pessimistic and have never been realised anywhere on earth however little or great intervention took place. Their advice was always a worst case guess. It is if course one of Sunak's claims that dissenting advice was never presented to the public, so if you read some dissent, plainly the totality of same was much greater. You seem to misunderstand Sage. It's remit is to answer questions asked by government and provide options. But early on we even had one member admitting she had lied publicly to put the official line rather than what she believed to be the true case. It's a condition of membership you never publicly dissent from the official line. As to late lockdowns killing people, I have yet to see evidence. All I have seen is more modelling, garbage in, garbage out. The UK totally failed to keep out successive waves of covid despite all precautions then in place. As a massively trading and mobile nation it was never possible to keep covid out so this was never an option for us. There is a very good argument to be made that deaths would have been no worse with no lockdown, and a fair argument outcomes could actually have been better in health terms.(Obviously better in economic terms) I started noticing sage official view was wrong back in late spring 2020 and have said so consistently. It's all there even in the published Sage reports, their advice was only ever a best guess and outlined a possible course of action with no guarantees. Well, it was wrong. I seem to recall that at that time you too were a lot more sceptical of lockdown. You are just making my case that suspending society every time a new wave comes along is simply a recipe for national bankruptcy We have to live with it just as we do with flu and other corona viruses.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 17:02:09 GMT
I’ve no idea why anyone is taken in by the illusion that he is even remotely undecided about whether he will vote for Truss in the next GE, when she is PM. I've no idea why anyone should care who I vote for. I don't care about your voting record. Why on earth you should question my voting intention is beyond me. Why does it have any significance for you? Do you intend to demand proof of voting from me ?. Everyone else too....or just me ? Weird !
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 17:09:10 GMT
colin - "I am reading reports that Kwarteng is looking at windfall taxes. I think he should." Very grown up of him.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 17:10:55 GMT
The idea that anything from this rabble of a govt could be 'grown up' is risible It isn't grown up at all. The proposal feather beds and protects the energy companies' profits at the expense of the taxpayer and customers who will pay. Also involves expensive private borrowing instead if cheaper public borrowing. It is another massive rip-off similar to the bank bailouts, where private profit is protected at public expense. It is a terrible idea - essentially just energy company propaganda - and worse that Starmer's. Of course it ticks all the Tory boxes, so something of the sort may well happen. I have great sympathy with that view. But I think Starmer alighted on this model for one very simple reason. It is simple and understandable. In general I don't like these universal interventions which benefit rich and poor alike. Targeted support allows for more per capita to the most needy. But this energy cap thing is so urgent-upon us now-and so serious and significant , even for middle earners, that speed & simplicity are of the essence. Targetting requires admin systems which are sometimes not there. It is complex and people switch off. The thing with this Loan -the decision on its repayment can still include Taxpayer funding, recouped by appropriate windfall taxes on the industry. Actually my fear is the same one I have with Starmer's plan -what will the gas/elec prices be at the end of the two years ? ( six months in Starmer's case-wholly inadequate and too short term) How does any one know whether these unbelievable price increases will abate . Does a scheme like this just create a massive cliff face for consumers at some point in the future ? Putin will be playing with European gas supplies this winter like a cat with a mouse.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 17:13:28 GMT
colin - "I am reading reports that Kwarteng is looking at windfall taxes. I think he should." Very grown up of him. Well we will see I guess. I find him a bit arrogant. Jury is out. .......it might not be sitting for long though !
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 25, 2022 17:19:51 GMT
It isn't grown up at all. The proposal feather beds and protects the energy companies' profits at the expense of the taxpayer and customers who will pay. Also involves expensive private borrowing instead if cheaper public borrowing. It is another massive rip-off similar to the bank bailouts, where private profit is protected at public expense. It is a terrible idea - essentially just energy company propaganda - and worse that Starmer's. Of course it ticks all the Tory boxes, so something of the sort may well happen. I have great sympathy with that view. But I think Starmer alighted on this model for one very simple reason. It is simple and understandable. In general I don't like these universal interventions which benefit rich and poor alike. Targeted support allows for more per capita to the most needy. But this energy cap thing is so urgent-upon us now-and so serious and significant , even for middle earners, that speed & simplicity are of the essence. Targetting requires admin systems which are sometimes not there. It is complex and people switch off. The thing with this Loan -the decision on its repayment can still include Taxpayer funding, recouped by appropriate windfall taxes on the industry. For clarity, I am lukewarm (pardon the pun) about Labour's idea as a policy to actually be implemented, but it is excellent politics for an opposition party, which is what Starmer's job is after all. .
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 25, 2022 17:26:00 GMT
As promised a few days ago I have posted the notes I wrote on some aspects of working in an acute hospital during Covid wave 1 over on the specialist Covid thread - 3 lengthy posts.
Wave 1 was the weird time because no one knew what they were doing. Wave 2 was actually much more serious in numbers of cases and their severity but by then the medical profession had worked out the best ways to treat patients. This was one of the great unsung success stories of Covid and IMO at least as important as vaccines in keeping the death rate down.
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