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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 20:28:59 GMT
I've no idea why anyone should care who I vote for. I don't care about your voting record. Why on earth you should question my voting intention is beyond me. Why does it have any significance for you? Do you intend to demand proof of voting from me ?. Everyone else too....or just me ? Weird ! Well, you summed up your little outburst extremely well - very weird indeed. I couldn’t give a toss who you vote for - though you have actually provided fairly detailed records over the years as have many posters on this forum, so that’s hardly unusual. Suffice it to say that I don’t take your doubts about Truss any more seriously that I did when you “doubted” Johnson or May although, as I observed a while back, with Corbyn or the Lib Dems the only alternatives at the time that was pretty easy to understand. Truss v Starmer? A lot less easy but I’ve already offered my own guess - though that doesn’t indicate that I care much either way.
As for your third line, well, I don’t think that warrants any response at all, it’s just too silly. Tata. Well for someone who seems obsessed with how i will or will not vote , you give a very poor impression of not "caring" about it. But there we are . Takes all sorts. Even on UKPR2. Bye for now
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 25, 2022 20:30:44 GMT
Some rumours tonight that Gove will leave Parliament after the leadership election to become Editor of The Times.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 20:33:08 GMT
Re the energy sector's bail out proposal, I cannot see how such a huge contingent liability could be taken on by the UK Government without long-term close involvement in business decisions of the energy companies, regulation of prices, profits and dividends and so on. It would be a massive commitment . I wonder if the Treasury Civil Servants would ever stop thinking of questions to ask about such a deal.
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Post by guymonde on Aug 25, 2022 20:33:29 GMT
pjw1961 I have just read your amazing pieces on the covid specific thread, not a place I have previously spent much time, thank you for posting them. A well written collection of interesting and thoughtful experiences. Thanks again. Thanks mandolinist for pointing me at those posts and obviously thanks pjw1961 for writing them. Illuminating on many levels.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 20:37:49 GMT
Hear hear!!!!!!! Preferably 🧀 camembert cheese 🧀 from the Cheddar Mountains. Or Dunlop cheese from old tyres?Will they be British tyres made from British rubber?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 25, 2022 20:46:32 GMT
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Post by jib on Aug 25, 2022 20:46:44 GMT
Boris Johnson supporters tantalisingly close to their dream of a veto on PM’s oustingPetition calling for constitution to be altered to allow vote on whether to accept premier’s resignation nears required 10,000 signatures
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“It means that if a further 1,300 validated members sign the petition, the party will have to look at changing its constitution and allow a ballot on whether to accept Mr Johnson's resignation.
This would potentially throw the existing leadership election into chaos, as any ballot will almost certainly take place after the winner has been announced a week on Monday.
Lord Cruddas told The Telegraph: "I believe it is only a matter of time before the 10,000 threshold is met. We have had 250 new signatures in the last 24 hours that look legitimate. ….
However, a senior Tory source close to the Prime Minister said when those comments were reported: “He does not support any campaign to put him on the leadership ballot and will back whoever is the next leader.””
Telegraph Interesting. I suspect they (the Tories) probably realise they've ditched their only hope of winning in 2024. My hunch is that a Truss Government is going to crash and burn badly and quite quickly. The mid 20%s beckon.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 25, 2022 20:48:20 GMT
Or Dunlop cheese from old tyres? Will they be British tyres made from British rubber? Sadly, the British Empire is long gone, and with it Britain's control of the world's rubber mines.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 25, 2022 20:59:32 GMT
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 25, 2022 21:02:38 GMT
Hear hear!!!!!!! Preferably 🧀 camembert cheese 🧀 from the Cheddar Mountains. Or Dunlop cheese from old tyres?Now now. Look it's perfectly simple: - No wind farms on yonder hills.
- No houses anywhere near mine. Not even hiding behind trees. No houses -- end of.
- No massive railway -- I don't need to get to London 30 seconds faster, thank you.
- No phone or other masts anywhere round these parts. But we DO want really fast broadband, and no, I'm not prepared to spend more than 2/6 per month on it.
- Fix the babbling brook, it doesn't babble any more. I think the lack of water is the problem.
- And now you suggest you could fill our fields, those wonderful green fields, with bloody high tech solar cells?!!!
Don't you get it? We just want to be left alone, to enjoy the peace and quiet of our wonderful environment, without the bother of an foreigners from the town down the road coming in and spoiling it with their dog walking or picnicking. These fields belong to us, the country folk, and it's our job to protect them from the modern world. Oh, and while you're here, do you know why my ITV signal is not very strong? I can't seem to get Downton Abbey. (Use the trademan's entrance round the back.)
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Post by eor on Aug 25, 2022 21:10:34 GMT
Will they be British tyres made from British rubber? Sadly, the British Empire is long gone, and with it Britain's control of the world's rubber mines.Rubber mines? The future is surely in digital rubber, which could be turned into cheese online at a fraction of the cost.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 25, 2022 21:14:17 GMT
Sadly, the British Empire is long gone, and with it Britain's control of the world's rubber mines. Rubber mines? The future is surely in digital rubber, which could be turned into cheese online at a fraction of the cost. Rubber mines have low infrastructure costs, as the miners don't need lifts or hoists - they just drop down the shaft, and when they stop bouncing, they start work.
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Post by shevii on Aug 25, 2022 21:27:55 GMT
I've no reason to be fair to Truss so I won't be, but I am a little bit edgy about solar farms using up a lot of land that could be used for other purposes be it food production or environmental protection. alec might have a better take on this and the cost savings and efficiency/use of resources of huge solar farms compared to putting solar panels on every roof in the country type thing but it does concern me a little bit that we might solve one environmental problem and then create another.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 25, 2022 21:34:14 GMT
Rubber mines? The future is surely in digital rubber, which could be turned into cheese online at a fraction of the cost. Rubber mines have low infrastructure costs, as the miners don't need lifts or hoists - they just drop down the shaft, and when they stop bouncing, they start work.They don't need hard hats, either.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 25, 2022 21:38:15 GMT
I've no reason to be fair to Truss so I won't be, but I am a little bit edgy about solar farms using up a lot of land that could be used for other purposes be it food production or environmental protection. alec might have a better take on this and the cost savings and efficiency/use of resources of huge solar farms compared to putting solar panels on every roof in the country type thing but it does concern me a little bit that we might solve one environmental problem and then create another. From that twiter chat, do both: /photo/1
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 21:46:08 GMT
shevii - ground mounted panels are significantly better that roof mounted in general [perfect orientation guaranteed, pitch also perfect, which is normally not the case for buildings, can be single or dual axis mounted trackers, so gaining 40% greater output, will be less prone to efficiency loss through overheating, as panels >27C lose efficiency] and are also cheaper to install. Worth noting also that they are in essence temporary; most installations require minimal below ground infrastructure and sites can be restored and remediated very easily, with limited soil loss etc. They are also not incompatible with food production, with sheep grazing common under ground mounts (with some loss of grazing output). Beekeepers increasingly love solar farms too, as management plans often include wild flower planting and a great opportunity for significant wildlife gains from insects and micro-habitats. Bottom line, we're burning up the planet and unless we act fast, within 10 - 15 years we'll probably have triggered runaway global heating with massive methane release from melting tundra and acidification of the oceans leading to a collapse of ocean food stocks alongside the climate effects on land based food production and fresh water availability. [Somewhere between 1 and 2 billion people live in coastal regions supplied by ground water that is vulnerable to encroachment by salination under very modest sea level rises]. If we trip into runaway heating, we'll be in a situation where we have perhaps 8bn people trying to live on a planet that can only support 4bn. So we need clean energy, fast. Ground mounted solar is the quickest and easiest to install. Set against that, in this country, we waste around a third of the food we produce and over half the population are fat. We can do well with a lot less food. Time to get organised and to start worrying about what really matters, I would suggest.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 25, 2022 21:52:26 GMT
Some rumours tonight that Gove will leave Parliament after the leadership election to become Editor of The Times. The Lib Dems would be licking their lips over a by-election in Surrey Health.
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 21:52:42 GMT
But there are other options. Why can't we cover superstore car parks with raised PV panels? Does anyone like getting into a car that has been sitting in the sun? There are acres of suitable warehouse roofs that could be targeted for PV too. I think this is a typical Tory diversion tactic, and it is worrying. The two candidates for PM both seek to pander to stupid people in the right wing by showing an anti green side, when they should be showing leadership on the biggest issue facing humanity. That we're saddled with such a pathetic bunch as our governing party is frightening, and as this rebuttal shows - www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/25/fact-check-is-net-zero-really-to-blame-for-soaring-energy-bills-green-levies-renewables the right is quietly going down the route of climate change denial, waging war on those who wish to save the planet.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 25, 2022 21:58:04 GMT
Hear hear!!!!!!! Preferably 🧀 camembert cheese 🧀 from the Cheddar Mountains. Or Dunlop cheese from old tyres?I'm convinced that Tesco's blocks of mild cheddar already are made of rubber.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 25, 2022 21:59:42 GMT
Boris Johnson supporters tantalisingly close to their dream of a veto on PM’s oustingPetition calling for constitution to be altered to allow vote on whether to accept premier’s resignation nears required 10,000 signatures
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“It means that if a further 1,300 validated members sign the petition, the party will have to look at changing its constitution and allow a ballot on whether to accept Mr Johnson's resignation.
This would potentially throw the existing leadership election into chaos, as any ballot will almost certainly take place after the winner has been announced a week on Monday.
Lord Cruddas told The Telegraph: "I believe it is only a matter of time before the 10,000 threshold is met. We have had 250 new signatures in the last 24 hours that look legitimate. ….
However, a senior Tory source close to the Prime Minister said when those comments were reported: “He does not support any campaign to put him on the leadership ballot and will back whoever is the next leader.””
Telegraph Interesting. I suspect they (the Tories) probably realise they've ditched their only hope of winning in 2024. My hunch is that a Truss Government is going to crash and burn badly and quite quickly. The mid 20%s beckon. Could be (though I do tend to consider quite a few of ‘em to be a bit of a disaster…)
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Post by eor on Aug 25, 2022 22:04:15 GMT
I've no reason to be fair to Truss so I won't be, but I am a little bit edgy about solar farms using up a lot of land that could be used for other purposes be it food production or environmental protection. alec might have a better take on this and the cost savings and efficiency/use of resources of huge solar farms compared to putting solar panels on every roof in the country type thing but it does concern me a little bit that we might solve one environmental problem and then create another. shevii - no doubt alec and a couple of others will get into the science, but purely anecdotally. We've just moved into a house with panels covering part of the roof. Don't have details yet but it seems to take the edge off the electric bill, and generates maybe £500 a year in feed-in payments. Whereas a close friend living about 10 miles away has just had panels installed that have taken her electric bill to nil and have her looking into ways of switching gas appliances to electric to use more of the surplus. The step difference seems to be that more of her roof is south-facing, but more critically that it's almost never shaded and that being a converted bungalow it's a rather shallower pitch than a normal roof. So whilst there are certainly a lot of homes that could be making good use of solar power, the variability seems huge even before you bring geography and climate into it. And presumably the panels cost the same wherever you put them, so I wonder how many houses it just wouldn't be worth the investment to install on?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 22:18:23 GMT
Or Dunlop cheese from old tyres? I'm convinced that Tesco's blocks of mild cheddar already are made of rubber. British rubber I hope?
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Post by RAF on Aug 25, 2022 22:33:00 GMT
I'm convinced that Tesco's blocks of mild cheddar already are made of rubber. British rubber I hope? Before too long one suspects that the only way to obtain a good quality version of the real thing will be by cheese rolling.
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Post by jayblanc on Aug 25, 2022 22:40:53 GMT
I've no reason to be fair to Truss so I won't be, but I am a little bit edgy about solar farms using up a lot of land that could be used for other purposes be it food production or environmental protection. alec might have a better take on this and the cost savings and efficiency/use of resources of huge solar farms compared to putting solar panels on every roof in the country type thing but it does concern me a little bit that we might solve one environmental problem and then create another. shevii - no doubt alec and a couple of others will get into the science, but purely anecdotally. We've just moved into a house with panels covering part of the roof. Don't have details yet but it seems to take the edge off the electric bill, and generates maybe £500 a year in feed-in payments. Whereas a close friend living about 10 miles away has just had panels installed that have taken her electric bill to nil and have her looking into ways of switching gas appliances to electric to use more of the surplus. The step difference seems to be that more of her roof is south-facing, but more critically that it's almost never shaded and that being a converted bungalow it's a rather shallower pitch than a normal roof. So whilst there are certainly a lot of homes that could be making good use of solar power, the variability seems huge even before you bring geography and climate into it. And presumably the panels cost the same wherever you put them, so I wonder how many houses it just wouldn't be worth the investment to install on? Over the life time of the units, even in suboptimal conditions, you'll generate far more worth in electricity than the cost of the unit. Which can only improve when electricity prices go up, while the cost of solar equipment goes down. As an 'investment' if you can, you should. The problem is it's a big initial outlay, and you don't break even for years. Same as all other ways that reduce the cost of living of the people inside the house. Which means there's no incentive for landlords to do so in rental buildings. It surprises me no one has started a business around renting, shared ownership, lease loan or other arrangements for solar installations based on shouldering the short-term cost for a longer term spread. Government certainly could be looking at programs to incentivise landlords to install Solar and Heat Pumps rather than programs that are only remotely attractive to well established home owners.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 25, 2022 22:41:59 GMT
This made me laugh 😀
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 25, 2022 22:44:22 GMT
I'm convinced that Tesco's blocks of mild cheddar already are made of rubber. British rubber I hope? Possibly used American rubbers?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 25, 2022 22:53:36 GMT
No alec. If there is one big difference between the UK and (especially) New Zealand, it's that Covid arrived in the UK very early, and before anybody in the world really appreciated it. quite. But you will be aware I know of a traveller from wuhan arriving in hastings late 2019, who immediately became ill with 'flu'. Aside from holidaymakers returning from europe early 2020, I think it was already here via an original direct infection from china just as in Italy in 2019. Other considerations about young being principal spreaders but never get ill enough to bother about it all apply, but also the natural unmitigated death rate from an outbreak of covid in uk was pretty low. 0.1%, and that 0.1% are people with already weakened immunity for one reason or another. exactly. No way they would be detected. Not so sure about that. Geography is difficult because it depends how dispersed the population is and therefore safe, or whether they all huddle together in a few cities. However if you plot all the countries on the world with lowest death rates, you find them clustered around the Pacific right near the origin point of covid. This seems very unlikely to be a coincidence and suggests past exposure has happened which built immunitu. It's a fact there os cross immunity between covid and other corona virus illnesses. So it's entirely possible they did not escape covid by diligent border controls, but rather their border controls worked because higher pre existing immunity reduced R in their countries and it was therefore easier to find the smaller number of cases. Japan had a tiny death rate or case rate despite doing very little in the first six months. Europe had huge lockdowns by comparison which failed. Despite lockdowns two whole strains original and kent caused significant outbreaks in the uk with spikes of deaths as you described. Lockdown might have delayed cases somewhat, but really the case data doesn't support it doing much good at all. Comparing regions infected early which thus missed lockdown before their cases were measured to be naturally falling again, the progression of the disease was then much the same in areas which were locked down before it arrived there. You will remember the health cops turning up teling us an exponential growth of cases had begun late 2020, Despite their own data already showing it was already slowing and falling below exponential. A cynic would say they saw the latest data but went ahead anyway because a couple of weeks more delay would have seen cases falling generally all by themselves proving lockdown was pointless and had been all that year. Something government could not politically allow to happen I agree there was little point in any measures by then because of established immunity. Just as there is no point now. However what is not so clear is the degree of immunity in the uk before covid arrived (it was proven there was some by studies on stored blood), after the first wave and after the kent wave. It is undeniable these created immunity, and in general an infection by covid has been found to be as effective or better in protecting against future infection. We do not know how many people had covid then, not least because testing is very unreliable at detecting asymptomatic cases, but also because it was wholly inadequate in scope to detect most cases. There simply weren't anything like enough tests being done- ever. South Africa only ever vaccinated 1/3 of its population at high risk, and thereafter did no worse than us multiply vaccinating anyone willing. We pretty much wasted those vaccines for the younger 2/3 of the uk population. No point. Fundamentally that seems to be because covid is not a fatal disease for the reasonably fit under about pension age. Nor indeed for the great majority above that age . We also don't know to what extent there was in the uk a population of highly susceptible people ready to die if they caught the illness, which was majorly depleted in the first two waves. So there was no one left to die in future waves. This might arguably be consistent with what we are seeing now, which instead of short peaks of deaths is a very steady background rate. Which presumably would reflect the rate at which new people become otherwise sick and so enter the high risk pool. presumably what happened is that restrictions do work to a degree and once natural spread has immunised sufficient of the population the outbreak will slow and decline. But then removing restrictions allows it to resume. Left to itself it will peak higher and faster and end permanently. To save lives you have to prevent it reaching the mostly old who are vulnerable and the best way to do that is make sure it ends fully and fast. Therefore slowing it and keeping the outbreak going can and did provide more opportunities to reach the vulnerable. We made it worse. just so. The UK also benfitted from greater variety of immunity because it had those early waves creating immunitu, not the very narrow immunity created by vaccines, which pretty much all concentrated on spike targets. Japan clearly benefited from doing little and had a way low death rate throughout. This was probably because they had relatively high outset immunity, and topped it up by being infected with each wave. Few got sick because their immunity started high and stayed high. There is a big risk for china that with a draconian lockdown it started off with high immunitu but is now far worse protected against the latest strains. Once a sufficient level of immunity has been achieved either naturally or by vaccine, then a society needs to switch back to the natural mechanism for updating that immunity which is regular repeat infections as new variants arise. We have to normalise being ill with covid and ignoring it
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 25, 2022 22:56:10 GMT
Worth remembering that Truss is the current UK Foreign Secretary.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 22:56:20 GMT
Hard to believe that the Tory leadership still drags on with yet more “hustings” to come. What an utterly pointless waste of time and platitudes.
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Post by eor on Aug 25, 2022 23:03:48 GMT
''For anyone still in denial about why Labour is leading in the polls: This poll has *18%* of 2019 Tory voters switching to Labour. For reference - in 1997, Blair managed to get about 14-15% of Tory voters to switch'' The above from Josh via Alec. In addition to the LD 7% or so Steve refers to another big difference is that the Tory vote share lead over Lab in '92 was around half the margin in 2019. 18% direct Tory-Lab without any the other way would give Lab a 2% or so lead over the Tories. Demographics widen the Lab lead further by 2-3% plus a net favourable outcome from churn through the LDs and then we have the DK/WV part of the Tory 2019 Voter base. All encouraging for Lab and if they can keep the direct switching at net over 10% (including the 2019 voters now saying DK/WV) no Tory OM is assured. Hard to see a meaningful sustainable recovery for over a year and quite possibly well in to 2024; and we may well see further widening by next spring. @jim Jam
At risk of perhaps being a bit pedantic the Tory GB lead in 1992 was 7.6% whereas in 2019 it was 11.6%. However, when allowance is made for Labour's loss of Scotland post 2014 the results are much closer. Had Labour already suffered its losses in Scotland by 1992 the Tory lead in GB that year would have been circa 9.5%. In terms of England & Wales the 2019 outcome falls somewhere between the 1987 and 1992 results.
graham - that's valid as far as it goes, but isn't it only half of the calculation? Had the seismic shift in Scottish voting habits already occurred at that point then Labour would have been (in those days) about 50 seats worse off too? What I mean is it's fair to say your % adjustment makes the 2019 vote share be in between the 1987 and 1992 ones, but by definition wouldn't it also make both of those election results strikingly worse defeats for Labour too?
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