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Post by alec on Aug 22, 2022 11:59:18 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter - Ukraine - I'm getting the feeling that Ukraine isn't really looking to launch a conventional assault. They seem more keen on targeting a war of attrition, believing that they have Russia at a disadvantage with stretched supply lines and low morale. Yes, the fighting does look like lasting for a while, although I don't discount some sudden and dramatic collapses in the Russian lines at some point.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 22, 2022 12:00:43 GMT
“ I keep a spreadsheet of UK GEs and amongst other things I track average votes per seat.” Sad…. Look’s like Pete’s the only ROC left standing. 😎
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Aug 22, 2022 12:10:00 GMT
That is genuinely terrifying, and I don't use the word lightly. If two thirds of the population were expected to be in 'fuel poverty' by January as we heard a few days ago, what would that figure rise to if we get to 18.6% inflation? 75%? 80% of us? These are un-chartered waters, certainly for anyone under (give or take) 50.
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Post by alec on Aug 22, 2022 12:10:40 GMT
Liz Truss' claim to be willing to launch a budget without having the OBR say what they think has kicked up a fuss and is interesting. On the one hand, this is a something and nothing spat; the OBR is a recent invention, part of a political gimmick by Osborne, and the Treasury has all the data the OBR would have. We never used to have an OBR, so what's the fuss?
Where I think it is is interesting is in the reaction. It is being widely criticised across the party divide, and Truss hasn't handled this well. It has become a feature of this campaign that Truss has allowed herself to be painted as reckless, ill thought out, flying blind etc. Fair or not, tTo a large degree, this now seems embedded in many voters minds, and so this move on the OBR fits that perception and so becomes more dangerous for Truss.
It does appear that the campaign has led to a loss of credibility for Truss, and that's a goldmine for Labour. In 2019, Corbyn promised an awful lot, much of which was individually popular, but no one felt inclined to believe he could deliver. Truss has started to go down the same route.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Aug 22, 2022 12:12:48 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter - Ukraine - I'm getting the feeling that Ukraine isn't really looking to launch a conventional assault. They seem more keen on targeting a war of attrition, believing that they have Russia at a disadvantage with stretched supply lines and low morale. Yes, the fighting does look like lasting for a while, although I don't discount some sudden and dramatic collapses in the Russian lines at some point. I don't necessarily disagree - as it looks like we haven't given them anywhere near the amount of resources needed for them to launch such an offensive, and both sides look exhausted. If they could launch one, they would.
Problem with a war of attrition is that it can go both ways - the Ukrainian economy is on the brink of collapse, and its people's levels of morale and resilience are not unlimited (no people's are). We talk about a hard winter in western Europe, its nothing compared to what the Ukrainians face. As I have said before, many in the west are at the risk of a high level of dangerous complacency thinking the Russians will just collapse.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2022 12:28:03 GMT
“ I keep a spreadsheet of UK GEs and amongst other things I track average votes per seat.” Sad…. Look’s like Pete’s the only ROC left standing. 😎 Sad….
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Post by wb61 on Aug 22, 2022 12:31:14 GMT
Those who worry about the economy ought to read Terry Pratchett Making Money where money is shown for what it is, a fantasy. Money is the way by which we create an exchange mechanism for work done. The capitalist system values work in curious ways so that the work of moving numbers around various computer locations is deemed much more valuable, than, for example, growing food for people to eat. It has become so bizarre that, apparently, placing a bet on where someone will, in the future, place such a number, and pretending to buy the number at that place, but only when it reaches that place, can mean that both the person placing the number and the person betting on it can somehow be more valuable work than keeping a person alive by caring for them. This is only possible because of the fantasy of money, one wonders if we would all be better off without it!!!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2022 12:58:47 GMT
Those who worry about the economy ought to read Terry Pratchett Making Money where money is shown for what it is, a fantasy. Money is the way by which we create an exchange mechanism for work done. The capitalist system values work in curious ways so that the work of moving numbers around various computer locations is deemed much more valuable, than, for example, growing food for people to eat. It has become so bizarre that, apparently, placing a bet on where someone will, in the future, place such a number, and pretending to buy the number at that place, but only when it reaches that place, can mean that both the person placing the number and the person betting on it can somehow be more valuable work than keeping a person alive by caring for them. This is only possible because of the fantasy of money, one wonders if we would all be better off without it!!!! I’ll take care of yours WB if that will help.
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isa
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Post by isa on Aug 22, 2022 13:03:12 GMT
More detail on the inflation forecast reported previously. All eyes on Friday, when the new energy cap, widely expected to be £3.5k, is announced. This is c80% above the current level. I suspect the energy companies won't be backward in coming forward in reflecting this in much higher direct debit payments for those on variable tariffs, quite possibly as early as 01 Sep. If any further proof were needed as to how painful this is going to get, this should provide it. And this is only the beginning. The cap is likely to increase to over £5k by early next year, and the gas price is still rising exponentially on a virtually daily basis now. Yet our 'Government' continues to be missing in action, with CON completely preoccupied in rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic and nursing massive egos in this pointless, corrosive and, for the country, ruinous, 'leadership' contest. If it wasn't so serious, it would be laughable, not to mention unbelievable. news.sky.com/story/uk-inflation-to-top-18-as-gas-prices-soar-banking-giant-citi-forecasts-12679147
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 22, 2022 13:14:05 GMT
Look’s like Pete’s the only ROC left standing. 😎 Sad…. Neil A worries me. Do you think he's run off with Penny Mordaunt? She seems to have disappeared and Neil hasn't posted for a while either. He was a devout Penny fan and I think may have taken her exit from the leadership race rather badly. Maybe he's taken her to a far, far better place for peaceful recuperation before re-entering the fray. Turk's Texan retreat is a possibility. Bobby Newark, CBX1985 and Big Col have both detoxed there in the past, I'm told.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 22, 2022 13:19:21 GMT
“ I keep a spreadsheet of UK GEs and amongst other things I track average votes per seat.” Sad…. Possibly in the real world but surely not a forum for election geeks? I have books and spreadsheets with every individual constituency GE and by-election result since 1832. Picking one up and opening at a random page: Shaftesbury 1841 Electorate 497 Lord Howard (Lib) 219 GB Mathew (Con) 202 Lib gain from Con
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2022 13:25:45 GMT
hireton Conference resolved last year that the party should support a longer-term objective of UK membership of the the EU, you are simply wrong in your interpretation .It is liberal democrat policy to rejoin.The large majority of members support rejoin an even larger majority think it was wrong to leave in the first place.Leadership rejected conference request to immediately campaign for rejoin last year This may change after this year's conference As things stand it isn't going to happen soon nothing we or the SNP can do about that and of course it requires public support ,we need to restore trust first after the toxic nationalist stupidity of the Tory regime. I've made the party's position clear three times surely that's sufficient, saying it isn't the case because you wish to portray all U.K. wide parties as having similar views doesn't make it the case, it just looks a wee bit daft to be honest.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2022 13:28:42 GMT
But then again wasn’t it LD policy to not put up uni tuition fees?
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Post by Mark on Aug 22, 2022 13:41:29 GMT
Re-LibDem & the EU...
Personally, I'd have a hard time voting LibDem and it would take a lot of gritted teeth - even if it meant ousting a tory. For the same ends, I'd vote Green in a heartbeat.
It's not that I don't like what they say, quite the opposite on some issues, I simply don't trust them after the 2010 sellout. I'm sure that there are others like me, although, after some stunning wins, patently much less than there once were.
For me, it's a moot point as they weigh the Labour vote here so I can vote with my heart without worrying about letting a tory in.
More broadly, though, it does seem to me that a fair chunk of the LibDem vote is an anti-tory vote.
People know that they are, broadly, pro-EU and certainly the most pro-EU out of the main parties...but, surely the fact that there is a debate on here, amongst people who follow politics more closely than the average joe, about just how pro-EU they are suggests that while the general direction of travel is known, the destination is less so.
They are likely to have the anti-tory tactical vote sewn up, but, clearer polic presentation would help getting positive, pro-LibDem votes.
To be fair, IMO, Starmer, at least to an extent, has the same problem.
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Post by guymonde on Aug 22, 2022 13:45:08 GMT
I liked this comment from the Concilio blog (Concilio are a PR agency commenting mainly on planning matters so this is well off-piste for them and is an interesting reflection on the works of our 'government'). "As the Tory leadership contest enters its 38th year and overtakes Eastenders as the UK's longest running soap opera, notable by its absence is any genuine debate about how to tackle the housing crisis. But should Sunak and Truss be taking more of an impact on the longterm electoral impacts of pulling up the property ladder? www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2022/08/londons-broken-market-destroy-economy-conservative-party"
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2022 13:45:55 GMT
but, surely the fact that there is a debate on here, amongst people who follow politics more closely than the average joe, about just how pro-EU they are suggests that while the general direction of travel is known, the destination is less so. exactly - those two oh so pro EU parties LD & SNP who handed Boris Johnson his election at a time guaranteed to give us the worst possible Brexit. They have their own party agendas which have little to do with public stated policies or even the good of the UK.
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Post by robbiealive on Aug 22, 2022 13:58:11 GMT
One can understand Sunak's frustration with Truss as she pumps out promises like a burst water main. He is right that her budget will struggle to provide £30-50 billion in tax cuts & the £? billion assistance with energy bills that, when reality strikes, she will have to provide. But her campaign has made so much of tax cuts, & so little of "sticking plasters", that one feels she will have to empahsise her tax promises, with adverse political effects. I know that politicians are very good at kissing and making up, but Sunak's more-and-more strident attacks on Truss's economics-illiteracy, despite his having apparently lost, suggests he will not be in her cabinet: neither will Gove & hence the Tories will have lost their two most competent ministers. Badenoch, Mordaunt, Braverman, etc will not set the Thames on fire: right-wing-hack Kwarteng has a strongish background in finance & energy, but he lacks the necessary skill to communicate confidence in a crisis: his main rhetorical gift is his ability to drone on until everyone within earshot is fast asleep.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 22, 2022 14:02:52 GMT
Neil A worries me. ... Maybe he's taken her to a far, far better place for peaceful recuperation before re-entering the fray. The EU? :-)
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 22, 2022 14:08:28 GMT
I know that politicians are very good at kissing and making up, but Sunak's more-and-more strident attacks on Truss's economics-illiteracy, despite having apparently lost, suggests he will not be in her cabinet: He has now more or less said that, saying their policy difference are too large to bridge and he couldn't serve under her. There were rumours a couple of days ago that she is considering bringing back Redwood and IDS. Imagine a cabinet of Truss, Rees-Mogg, Coffey, Dorries, Redwood, IDS, Cleverly, Badenoch, Braverman, Kwarteng, probably Patel. Give that lot a couple of years and there might not be much left of the public sector or private industry outside of the City fat-cats.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 22, 2022 14:30:15 GMT
Re-LibDem & the EU... Personally, I'd have a hard time voting LibDem and it would take a lot of gritted teeth - even if it meant ousting a tory. For the same ends, I'd vote Green in a heartbeat. It's not that I don't like what they say, quite the opposite on some issues, I simply don't trust them after the 2010 sellout. I'm sure that there are others like me, although, after some stunning wins, patently much less than there once were. For me, it's a moot point as they weigh the Labour vote here so I can vote with my heart without worrying about letting a tory in. More broadly, though, it does seem to me that a fair chunk of the LibDem vote is an anti-tory vote. People know that they are, broadly, pro-EU and certainly the most pro-EU out of the main parties...but, surely the fact that there is a debate on here, amongst people who follow politics more closely than the average joe, about just how pro-EU they are suggests that while the general direction of travel is known, the destination is less so. They are likely to have the anti-tory tactical vote sewn up, but, clearer polic presentation would help getting positive, pro-LibDem votes. To be fair, IMO, Starmer, at least to an extent, has the same problem. "I simply don't trust them after the 2010 sellout" - I find this attitude baffling now. It's been twelve years, and a complete change of personnel. Also if they are likely to be sharing govt again at any point in the future (and I don't think a formal Lab/Lib coalition is likely anyway) they would need to pivot themselves towards Labour policies, not Tory ones which was the trouble last time. The chances of them ever being a formal coalition with the Tories ever in the foreseeable future is pretty close to zero I'd say. If voting for them helps to get rid of a Tory I'll do it in a heartbeat. Voting Green in a general in most constituencies is more or less an abstention. A token.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2022 14:35:18 GMT
“ I keep a spreadsheet of UK GEs and amongst other things I track average votes per seat.” Sad…. Possibly in the real world but surely not a forum for election geeks? I have books and spreadsheets with every individual constituency GE and by-election result since 1832. Picking one up and opening at a random page: Shaftesbury 1841 Electorate 497 Lord Howard (Lib) 219 GB Mathew (Con) 202 Lib gain from Con Bit weedy - my tables go back to the Civil War. All on parchment.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 22, 2022 14:36:57 GMT
Sad…. Neil A worries me. Do you think he's run off with Penny Mordaunt? She seems to have disappeared and Neil hasn't posted for a while either. He was a devout Penny fan and I think may have taken her exit from the leadership race rather badly. Maybe he's taken her to a far, far better place for peaceful recuperation before re-entering the fray. Turk's Texan retreat is a possibility. Bobby Newark, CBX1985 and Big Col have both detoxed there in the past, I'm told. I'd completely forgotten about CBX1985. He/she used to really annoy me!
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Post by wb61 on Aug 22, 2022 14:38:54 GMT
As the penchant for adding black and white photos as avatars seems to be catching on, and feeling the need to be part of a crowd I changed mine.
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isa
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Post by isa on Aug 22, 2022 14:43:15 GMT
As the penchant for adding black and white photos as avatars seems to be catching on, and feeling the need to be part of a crowd I changed mine. Good old Nye. Wonder what he'd think about the NHS today?
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Post by robbiealive on Aug 22, 2022 14:54:00 GMT
I know that politicians are very good at kissing and making up, but Sunak's more-and-more strident attacks on Truss's economics-illiteracy, despite having apparently lost, suggests he will not be in her cabinet: He has now more or less said that, saying their policy difference are too large to bridge and he couldn't serve under her. There were rumours a couple of days ago that she is considering bringing back Redwood and IDS. Imagine a cabinet of Truss, Rees-Mogg, Coffey, Dorries, Redwood, IDS, Cleverly, Badenoch, Braverman, Kwarteng, probably Patel. Give that lot a couple of years and there might not be much left of the public sector or private industry outside of the City fat-cats. Thanks for updating me. Like a bad chess player I am always one move behind. I don't know what I'm doing speculating, as i tend to contemn it in other posters. It will be IDS's 3rd or 4th coming? He is of course a Catholic, so will fit in well. Ps I should have said that Kwarteng has written a well-received book: Ghosts of Emipre. I just would not recommend him to make an audio version.
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 22, 2022 14:57:59 GMT
As the penchant for adding black and white photos as avatars seems to be catching on, and feeling the need to be part of a crowd I changed mine. Good old Nye. Wonder what he'd think about the NHS today? I think that both he and his wife would be turning in their graves: him on what successive governments have done to the NHS; her on what successive governments have done to the Open University.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 22, 2022 15:03:28 GMT
pjw1961
That Shaftesbury result is interesting. I know it was almost 200 years ago now, with a much more smaller population back then and women still disenfranchised, but that's a very small electorate size, isn't it? 400 odd voters? A rotten borough perhaps, or are you sneaking in those local government by-election results you seem to relish again?
Changing the subject completely, I happened to catch a short segment of Rishi Sunak's interview with Vanessa Feltz on Radio 2 earlier today as I drove home from the gym. He was asked about the speculation that Truss is going to offer him the Health brief if she was to win the leadership contest and become PM. He laughed this off saying neither he nor "Liz" were thinking that far ahead.
He trotted out the life story stuff again, saying he was born into an "NHS" family and that having two young daughters ensured he "got it" on climate change. Innovation and new technology was his way to tackle the climate emergency. He didn't like "stopping people doing what they loved doing" nor "putting people's taxes up".
It all seemed very bland and tiggerish to me. He's an articulate man, clearly, and with an obvious intelligence, but about as inspiring as a wet flannel. You can see why he scores poorly with both the public and the Tory membership. It's all a bit slick willie, lacking emotion and passion. All the worst features of Blair but without the old master's always well calibrated political compass.
He'd no doubt be a better PM than Truss but seems like a rudderless boat to me, adrift and sea sick on the choppy political seas. I don't think politics is his thing really. There's no real blood running through his veins in that respect, or not that I can detect. A competent technocrat no doubt, and probably quite a personable fellow, but another one of those many politicians who really hasn't got the foggiest idea what to do with power.
But likes being in office. Maybe he thinks he's good at it.
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Post by hireton on Aug 22, 2022 15:11:06 GMT
hireton Conference resolved last year that the party should support a longer-term objective of UK membership of the the EU, you are simply wrong in your interpretation .It is liberal democrat policy to rejoin.The large majority of members support rejoin an even larger majority think it was wrong to leave in the first place.Leadership rejected conference request to immediately campaign for rejoin last year This may change after this year's conference As things stand it isn't going to happen soon nothing we or the SNP can do about that and of course it requires public support ,we need to restore trust first after the toxic nationalist stupidity of the Tory regime. I've made the party's position clear three times surely that's sufficient, saying it isn't the case because you wish to portray all U.K. wide parties as having similar views doesn't make it the case, it just looks a wee bit daft to be honest. The policy paper approved by conference says: "We resolved: ‘to support a longer-term objective of UK membership of the EU at an appropriate future date to be determined by political circumstances, subject to public assent, market and trade conditions and acceptable negotiated terms’. "By steadily building a healthier relationship with the EU, we can demonstrate how the UK can become more prosperous, more safe and more influential – and in this way maximise the chance of persuading the electorate to support a renewed UK membership of the EU in the longer term." So the Lib Dem actual policy commitment is to work towards rejoining the Single Market at an unspecified date in the hope that this brings about a change in the electorate about EU membership in the longer term at which time the Lib Dems of the next generation or two might make rejoining an actual policy commitment. At the moment it isn't.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 22, 2022 15:19:55 GMT
As the penchant for adding black and white photos as avatars seems to be catching on, and feeling the need to be part of a crowd I changed mine. So few people in politics that one can actually admire since colour photography became common! I had one of Mr Campbell for a while but I agree he's a marmite figure. Maybe we should all take a leaf out of Crofty's book and (unlike Crofty) scare the bejesus out of each other with our actual visages? On second thoughts not a good idea..
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Post by graham on Aug 22, 2022 15:21:10 GMT
Re-LibDem & the EU... Personally, I'd have a hard time voting LibDem and it would take a lot of gritted teeth - even if it meant ousting a tory. For the same ends, I'd vote Green in a heartbeat. It's not that I don't like what they say, quite the opposite on some issues, I simply don't trust them after the 2010 sellout. I'm sure that there are others like me, although, after some stunning wins, patently much less than there once were. For me, it's a moot point as they weigh the Labour vote here so I can vote with my heart without worrying about letting a tory in. More broadly, though, it does seem to me that a fair chunk of the LibDem vote is an anti-tory vote. People know that they are, broadly, pro-EU and certainly the most pro-EU out of the main parties...but, surely the fact that there is a debate on here, amongst people who follow politics more closely than the average joe, about just how pro-EU they are suggests that while the general direction of travel is known, the destination is less so. They are likely to have the anti-tory tactical vote sewn up, but, clearer polic presentation would help getting positive, pro-LibDem votes. To be fair, IMO, Starmer, at least to an extent, has the same problem. "I simply don't trust them after the 2010 sellout" - I find this attitude baffling now. It's been twelve years, and a complete change of personnel. Also if they are likely to be sharing govt again at any point in the future (and I don't think a formal Lab/Lib coalition is likely anyway) they would need to pivot themselves towards Labour policies, not Tory ones which was the trouble last time. The chances of them ever being a formal coalition with the Tories ever in the foreseeable future is pretty close to zero I'd say. If voting for them helps to get rid of a Tory I'll do it in a heartbeat. Voting Green in a general in most constituencies is more or less an abstention. A token. I would not vote LD if other candidates - Labour & Green -were available. It is actually barely 7 years since they were in coalition with the Tories. Moreover the party appeared well to the left under Charles Kennedy - indeed I supported them in 2001 and 2005 - yet but a few years later we saw them shift sharply to the Right under Clegg and the Orange Bookers.
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