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Post by mercian on Aug 22, 2022 0:16:00 GMT
hireton Fptp strikes again with the only party having representation commensurate with their vote share unusually for them being the Lib dems. steve - it's interesting how that calculation moves around as fortunes fluctuate. In recent decades I think the closest the Tories have got to parity at a UK level was 2005, having been under-represented in 1997 and 2001 and over-represented the rest of the time. Whereas curiously Labour got an almost perfectly proportionate result in both 2017 and 2019 (having being over-represented the rest of the time, including 1983). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#Full_results and similar ( graham and any others liking the longer view - I only considered the last 50 years or so; I can well believe had I gone back to the 1950s things would be different, given how high the combined Tory/Lab vote share was and the tendency for a lot of straight-fight constituencies). I keep a spreadsheet of UK GEs and amongst other things I track average votes per seat. I think this is an interesting different way at looking at results. Nearly always the party with the lowest votes per seat becomes the government. the two exceptions since WWII were 1950 and 2010. Best and worst post-war results (rounded) for the 3 major GB-wide parties: Tories worst 58000 1997 Tories best 33000 1983 Labour worst 51000 2019 Labour best 30000 1945 LibDem etc worst 433000 1974 (Feb) LibDem etc best 93000 2001 There are a few conclusions that can be drawn from this. 1) I should really update my spreadsheet to include SNP as a separate entity now that they have a significant number of seats. 2) The system is grossly unfair to the LibDems and their predecessors. 3) Despite the recent polls, Labour do have a mountain to climb. The worst votes/seat they have had and formed a government was in Feb 1974 with 39000 votes per seat. They therefore have to reduce their votes per seat at least by around 12000. This has never been done by either major party since WWII. Of course as always there are special circumstances, and probably a lot of Labour votes went to the Tories in 2019 because of Brexit, so it's not impossible but it will break records if they manage to do it.
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Post by eor on Aug 22, 2022 1:21:46 GMT
mercian - just for the stats (I know you only looked at the three parties), but I'm pretty sure the 3.9m votes per seat for UKIP in 2015 wins as the spectacularly worst example of efficiency between votes and seats. Also I think having both Labour and the Tories at their "worst" ratio in unusual years that they were close or closest to parity of votes to seats does say a lot about the current system. At the same time, it's a ratio comparison and those always make me itchy because they can change from both ends. A party reduces its ratio by either winning more seats or gaining fewer votes, which are broadly opposite achievements. I get the overall use of it in comparing elections (tho some adjustment is needed for comparing to elections decades ago when there were a similar number of seats and waaay fewer voters?), but ultimately it would still mean that Labour could significantly "improve" their ratio in your measure in 2024 by eg alienating 2 million voters on the left but only losing 10 seats, both of which would be electorally devastating rather than place them closer to winning?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 22, 2022 6:00:46 GMT
Those on low and average pay are being told by the great and the good to show pay restraint. They are told the country can't afford it and it will fuel inflation Meanwhile www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/22/average-pay-ftse-100-chiefs-jumps'Chief executives of the UK’s 100 biggest companies have seen their pay jump by 39% to an average of £3.4m, according to research by the High Pay Centre thinktank and the Trades Union Congress'
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Post by hireton on Aug 22, 2022 6:49:36 GMT
More results from the Panelbase poll in Scotland including some commentary from Sir John Curtice: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/453c2f3a-2191-11ed-83fa-560ae4fda953?shareToken=4304f80ff2e3dca389fcc6e6210fbffbHeadline finding is: "A new Panelbase survery has found that Scotland is even more opposed to Brexit than in 2016, when 62 per cent voted against. Now 72 per cent say they would vote Remain, while 69 per cent, would vote to rejoin the EU — up from 61 per cent in January." And the only route to rejoining is independence. One point highlighted by Curtice is: "And only 37 per cent believe the UK government should make the decision on another ballot, while 52 per cent reckon the Scottish government should do so.”
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2022 7:02:32 GMT
Attachment DeletedSome are asking who cosplay Maggie will appoint to her first cabinet. I have a cunning plan . Expand the cabinet to 336 members leaving just Sunak Spaffer and of course Gove outside of it. Party unity assured. It gives the opportunity for some interesting new posts. Jacob Rees Mogg as minister for child chimney sweep opportunities and Nadine Dorries as minister for the stationary cabinet ( second shelf) come to mind. With the authors of Britain unhinged at the helm what could possibly go wrong.
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Post by hireton on Aug 22, 2022 7:02:50 GMT
The UK Government's new approach to legal advice and lawfulness described here which seems to be "can we get away with it?"
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2022 7:07:41 GMT
hireton The disillusionment with the disaster of brexit in Scotland is reflective of similar polling UK wide with over 10% majority amongst those expressing a view now agreeing that Brexit was a mistake. The only route to rejoin is of course to rejoin, one of these routes would involve succession, it's not the only one.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2022 7:15:25 GMT
The Brexit bonus
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Post by alec on Aug 22, 2022 7:19:46 GMT
mercian - "I'd be interested in any views, particularly optimistic ones!" Quite feasibly one of the reasons why some states have broken up in recent decades is the parallel move towards stronger and deeper supra-national structures, such as the EU and multiple other regional trading blocks. Contrary to what you think, many smaller countries (ref Poland, for example) think it is easier for countries to assert their sovereignty within such bodies, which give them protection and stability. So while the USSR collapsed, the EU continues to expand, because that's what most countries want. So I think we're moving more towards large blocks, defined in various ways, rather than small totally independent states.
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Post by hireton on Aug 22, 2022 7:21:36 GMT
Lord Frost took to the Daily Telegraph to publish a short piece on Scottish independence and why it is a very bad thing. Not normally worth paying much attention to but as it echoes some of the Truss and Sunak British nationalist campaign rhetoric and he may be in the Cabinet it may contain some hints of the new PM's policy. For such a short piece it is remarkably factually wrong and internally contradictory. A historian and a lawyer have dissected its central argument that the UK is and always has been a unitary state: The Frost article is here: archive.ph/9bwLF
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Post by hireton on Aug 22, 2022 7:23:45 GMT
hireton The disillusionment with the disaster of brexit in Scotland is reflective of similar polling UK wide with over 10% majority amongst those expressing a view now agreeing that Brexit was a mistake. The only route to rejoin is of course to rejoin, one of these routes would involve succession, it's not the only one. None of the British nationalist parties in Westminster are proposing rejoining and there is no reason to believe the EU would agree to the UK rejoining any time soon.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2022 7:43:34 GMT
hireton The opportunity for a independent Scotland to join given that there isn't currently an independent Scotland is probably no closer than a change of opinion in Westminster. By the way if you include the liberal democrats in the list of your British nationalist parties you are wrong as it is liberal democrat policy to rejoin the European union.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2022 7:45:40 GMT
hireton It's also entirely possible, If no longer a certainty, that Spain would object to a secessionist Scotland joining the European union.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Aug 22, 2022 7:50:08 GMT
Bloody kickieball! Here I was enjoying the house to myself - catching up on re-runs of to TOTP from '93, which brings back memories of when I was doing my A-Levels, copying the the Ace of Base dancing with my best friend in our living room on a break from revising. Now I have three manically depressed males on the way home! Ha! That makes us about the same age. You must be refering to "All That She Wants". Although, it could be "The Sign"? Hi RAF, it was: She leads a lonely life She leads a lonely life When she woke up late in the morning light And the day had just begun She opened up her eyes and thought "Oh, what a morning" It's not a day for work It's a day for catching tan Just lying on the beach and having fun She's going to get you All that she wants is another baby She's gone tomorrow, boy All that she wants is another baby, yeah All that she wants is another baby She's gone tomorrow, boy All that she wants is another baby, yeahIt was number one when we were doing our exams.
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Post by EmCat on Aug 22, 2022 7:52:40 GMT
mercian - just for the stats (I know you only looked at the three parties), but I'm pretty sure the 3.9m votes per seat for UKIP in 2015 wins as the spectacularly worst example of efficiency between votes and seats. Also I think having both Labour and the Tories at their "worst" ratio in unusual years that they were close or closest to parity of votes to seats does say a lot about the current system. At the same time, it's a ratio comparison and those always make me itchy because they can change from both ends. A party reduces its ratio by either winning more seats or gaining fewer votes, which are broadly opposite achievements. I get the overall use of it in comparing elections (tho some adjustment is needed for comparing to elections decades ago when there were a similar number of seats and waaay fewer voters?), but ultimately it would still mean that Labour could significantly "improve" their ratio in your measure in 2024 by eg alienating 2 million voters on the left but only losing 10 seats, both of which would be electorally devastating rather than place them closer to winning? In theory, a party could improve its ratio by chasing fewer voters (rather than the more obvious one of chasing more seats). One would hope that those within that party might realise that the former isn't really the goal, though history has tended to show that parties chasing purity of vision would seem to be adopting that approach. It is a bit like a business obsessing over a Key Performance Indicator and how to improve it, rather than deciding what actions could be done which would tend to improve the KPI
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 22, 2022 8:03:06 GMT
Oh and by the way, can anyone advise? Now that our household is in fuel poverty I believe I'm allowed to steal stuff. Have I got that right, or have I misunderstood something? 😁 Weirder than normal. Tired and emotional?
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Post by mandolinist on Aug 22, 2022 8:51:22 GMT
With no effective leadership or Uk government in place, the country now faces: an inflationary spike similar to the mid '70's; strikes across transport, distribution, legal profession and healthcare; the potential for interrupted electricity supplies in January; shortages of fresh vegetables due to drought and failure to plant; speeding climate change; war in Europe. . .all we need now is a new Conservative Prime Minister to say
"crisis what crisis?" on entering Downing Street and the country will implode.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 22, 2022 8:58:47 GMT
With no effective leadership or Uk government in place, the country now faces: an inflationary spike similar to the mid '70's; strikes across transport, distribution, legal profession and healthcare; the potential for interrupted electricity supplies in January; shortages of fresh vegetables due to drought and failure to plant; speeding climate change; war in Europe. . .all we need now is a new Conservative Prime Minister to say "crisis what crisis?" on entering Downing Street and the country will implode. Somebody ought to trot out "Broken Britain" soon. Maybe "Britain isn't Working" even. If the Daily Mail or Sun are reluctant this time around, and I can understand why they might be, then the Opposition should give it a go. You never know, it might just catch on.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 22, 2022 9:08:34 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 22, 2022 9:12:44 GMT
Yeah, makes no sense. It's pretty clear she is going to be PM and that sure as heck isn't pushing the polls in the Tory party's direction at the moment. There will be some kind of bounce with those who don't pay much attention because there always is with a change of leader but my guess is it will be relatively small and short-lived.
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Post by davwel on Aug 22, 2022 9:36:07 GMT
Frost is an utter moron.
To believe that one crowd can tell the behaviour and views of a whole nation shows his low level of intelligence.
He has no place or useful contribution to make in any UK government.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 22, 2022 9:41:34 GMT
Frost is an utter moron. To believe that one crowd can tell the behaviour and views of a whole nation shows his low level of intelligence. He has no place or useful contribution to make in any UK government. Since when has that been a disqualification to sit in a Tory Cabinet?? 🤔😉
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2022 9:49:32 GMT
“ I keep a spreadsheet of UK GEs and amongst other things I track average votes per seat.” Sad….
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Post by hireton on Aug 22, 2022 10:13:21 GMT
hireton The opportunity for a independent Scotland to join given that there isn't currently an independent Scotland is probably no closer than a change of opinion in Westminster. By the way if you include the liberal democrats in the list of your British nationalist parties you are wrong as it is liberal democrat policy to rejoin the European union. Lib Dem policy is for the UK to seek to rejoin the Single Market at an unspecified point in the future. there is no commitment to rejoin the EU.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2022 11:14:02 GMT
hireton You are mistaken the move to single market membership and the restoration of ties of friendship and trust are seen as a step towards "reintegration( rejoining) into the European union" that's current policy , conference may make this clearer but it's pretty clear already.There is no commitment to a time scale, how could there be it's not likely to be in the liberal democrats remit. I am a member of the liberal democrat party and am familiar with the party policy
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Aug 22, 2022 11:27:06 GMT
Yeah, makes no sense. It's pretty clear she is going to be PM and that sure as heck isn't pushing the polls in the Tory party's direction at the moment. There will be some kind of bounce with those who don't pay much attention because there always is with a change of leader but my guess is it will be relatively small and short-lived. Well, the big question is how big the bounce proves to be and if it persuades her to risk only a few weeks as PM and throwing away a massive majority. The ghosts of Brown, Major and May will play on her mind, but then there is the example of Johnson. I think she will opt for weathering the storm and bank two years in office with a large majority.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Aug 22, 2022 11:35:32 GMT
RE Ukraine.
It is starting to increasingly look like the Russian's have pretty much exhausted their offensive capabilities, at least in the short term. The big question is the extent to which the Ukrainians have sufficient resources to effectively launch a significant offensive in the South that will dislodge the Russians form at least west of the Dnipro. Jury still seems to be out on this - and it looks increasingly likely the fighting will continue into next year.
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Post by alec on Aug 22, 2022 11:38:30 GMT
Tough times ahead -
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Post by hireton on Aug 22, 2022 11:58:39 GMT
hireton You are mistaken the move to single market membership and the restoration of ties of friendship and trust are seen as a step towards "reintegration( rejoining) into the European union" that's current policy , conference may make this clearer but it's pretty clear already.There is no commitment to a time scale, how could there be it's not likely to be in the liberal democrats remit. I am a member of the liberal democrat party and am familiar with the party policy No, the only commitment is to rejoin the Single Market at some point which is itself the culmination of a 4 point plan which can be read in the Europe policy paper here: www.libdems.org.uk/policy_papersThere is an aspiration that the success of this policy may persuade voters to back rejoining but that is not Lib Dem policy at the moment. It's a sensible policy for the electorate in England which drives UK Lib Dem policy.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 22, 2022 11:58:48 GMT
Yeah, makes no sense. It's pretty clear she is going to be PM and that sure as heck isn't pushing the polls in the Tory party's direction at the moment. There will be some kind of bounce with those who don't pay much attention because there always is with a change of leader but my guess is it will be relatively small and short-lived. Well, the big question is how big the bounce proves to be and if it persuades her to risk only a few weeks as PM and throwing away a massive majority. The ghosts of Brown, Major and May will play on her mind, but then there is the example of Johnson. I think she will opt for weathering the storm and bank two years in office with a large majority. Yes, I think it's pretty unlikely we'll get a snap election. With the polls being so volatile and the fairly recent memory of what happened to May I think she'll hunker down for now believing in all her hubris that she can turn things around by the end of the current term.
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