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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2022 21:00:29 GMT
GP's to give out prescriptions for money off leccy bills? Has Gove been passing his £20 note around? As an aside...."Tin Lizzy" made me laugh... they seem to have lost the plot
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 20, 2022 21:20:07 GMT
I previously mentioned the Survation Scottish poll (9 Aug) as to whether Truss or Sunak becoming PM would make folk more or less likely to support/oppose independence. Anthony was always dismissive of these questions, as many who would vote in a particular way anyway would say that they were more/less likely to do so if X happened. I’m with Anthony on that.
However, the data tables do contain some interesting (and surprising) aspects when looking at the 2019 voters by party. www.survation.com/archive/2022-2/ (it’s the Diffley Partnership poll)
I have only extracted the data from one of the tables – covering the responses of SNP voters and for those of the 3 main UK Unionist parties.
Party : more likely to support : support anyway : oppose anyway : more likely to oppose : DK SCon (N=166) : 9% : 11% : 69% : 11% : 2% SLab (N=152) : 18% : 15% : 52% : 3% : 10% SLD : (N=56) 16% : 11% : 69% : 4% : 5% SNP : (N=357) 39% : 38% : 12% : 4% : 5%
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 20, 2022 21:24:01 GMT
If I remember Graham's rudimentary Opinium poll converter, an 8% Labour lead wouldn't be far off a 15% one in old money. That would put it in line with the recent You Gov poll.
This suggests, as us gnarled old polling gurus are inclined to say, that something may be going on out there.
In which case, if there is a really significant opinion shift taking place, with 2019 Tory voters now switching to Labour in numbers akin to 1997, then, in Johnsonian rhetoric, the ball has emerged from the scrum and is firmly in Starmer's hands. Can his inner scrum half run with this now? Reeves as his trusty fly half, Streeting in the centre and Rayner on the left wing. His forwards (unsung heroes and largely anonymous) have done the donkey work for him, although I think the Tory scrum has collapsed upon itself. The hooker and the prop appear to have fallen out irreconciably.
The game plan would appear to be to continue to rack up a big points lead via drop goals and long distance penalties. Owen Farrell tactics. Nothing flash.
The decisive try and conversion might be aptly timed about five minutes before the final whistle. No need for that flourish quite yet. I suspect that move is still being worked upon in a Mandelsonian sort of way.
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Post by graham on Aug 20, 2022 21:25:26 GMT
Prima facie tonight's Opinium tends to confirm the Yougov data - at least in terms of Labour's likely current lead.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 20, 2022 21:44:37 GMT
All going to plan.
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Post by jimjam on Aug 20, 2022 22:11:58 GMT
With the 13% direct Tory 2019-Lab in the latest Opinium, the forecast element of the 'poll' has a lower impact as the redistribution of the DK/WV is in effect in line with those that give a VI.
This still boosts the Tories as the retention is higher than evidence suggests the DK/WV breaks would actually produce (R&W have done squeeze question on DKs)
It is not though at the 7% level, 3-5% perhaps, would have to analyse the tables closely to give a better estimate (calling James E).
However, it appears we are over 10% Lab-Tory lead, though, with the 15% YG being towards the edge of moe.
Will it last?
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Post by isa on Aug 20, 2022 22:32:30 GMT
With the 13% direct Tory 2019-Lab in the latest Opinium, the forecast element of the 'poll' has a lower impact as the redistribution of the DK/WV is in effect in line with those that give a VI. This still boosts the Tories as the retention is higher than evidence suggests the DK/WV breaks would actually produce (R&W have done squeeze question on DKs) It is not though at the 7% level, 3-5% perhaps, would have to analyse the tables closely to give a better estimate (calling James E). However, it appears we are over 10% Lab-Tory lead, though, with the 15% YG being towards the edge of moe. Will it last?Well, I struggle to see much optimism for CON in the short term. I suspect any polling bounce for the new PM will be modest and short term, and quite rapidly overtaken by "Events, dear boy".
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 20, 2022 22:43:26 GMT
Cosplay Thatcher appears to have had her honeymoon already the reality has set in even before the boosterism has been consumated.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 20, 2022 22:47:42 GMT
Cosplay Thatcher appears to have had her honeymoon already the reality has set in even before the boosterism has been consumated. Presumably many voters (at least those who pay attention to politics outwith election campaigns) have already "priced in" Truss becoming PM.
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Post by isa on Aug 20, 2022 22:48:15 GMT
Remarkable lack of movement considering their previous poll was 6/7 weeks ago. Perhaps suggesting a hardening of the LAB lead at a slightly higher level than was the case a couple of months ago? The long leadership contest might have seemed a good idea with free publicity, but maybe the candidates are being ridiculed for their crazy statements. Plus the loss of rump johnson suporters. There have been quite a few nice things said about him since he agreed to go, which makes it look like they just railroaded a good chap.An interesting thought. Seems a tad fanciful to me though, I'm afraid. Certainly not the reaction he got in Greece last week, apparently.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 20, 2022 23:04:25 GMT
Deranged GOP candidate in Georgia Hershel Walker is refusing to debate incumbent senator Raphael Warnock on the 13th October his reason Hershel doesn't want to have to compete with his old colleagues for an audience because of " Sunday night football".
The 13th of October is a Thursday.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 20, 2022 23:15:16 GMT
Deranged GOP candidate in Georgia Hershel Walker is refusing to debate incumbent senator Raphael Warnock on the 13th October his reason Hershel doesn't want to have to compete with his old colleagues for an audience because of " Sunday night football". The 13th of October is a Thursday. Presumably he was looking at a 2024 calendar. Planning ahead for Presidential election year?
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Post by guymonde on Aug 20, 2022 23:24:45 GMT
You're cheating- they didn't have headphones for transistors back in the day I don't think, or at least out of most people's price range-.................. Maybe not headphones as such (which were pretty big in those days) but you certainly got small earpieces a very long time ago which plugged into 3.5mm jacks on a lot of radios. Indeed, and my schoolmate Hopley (we didn't use first names) managed to convince our hapless English teacher Dr Glasgow that the earpiece was a hearing aid, enabling him to spend English lessons listening to radio Caroline via the transistor radio secreted within his desk. Actually I don't think Dr G was that dumb, just too weak to confront
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Post by norbold on Aug 20, 2022 23:33:40 GMT
Nice to see lots of old friends still dissecting the latest polls on here.
Even better to see the latest polls! If only Starmer had the charisma of the young Tony Blair eh, 2024 would be another 1997. As it is, who knows.....?
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Post by guymonde on Aug 20, 2022 23:42:12 GMT
It seems incredible that this must have been briefed to the press as a serious idea but so it appears: It sounds like panic. This is not a serious idea, even to brief to the papers as one of a range of options. Every podcast I listen to has an ad for online private GP consultations. So pay £38 (that includes the cost of prescriptions) and get a few hundred £££ off your energy bills. What's not to like - good growth in the private healthcare sector (always providing a rich seam of Tory party donations), biased in favour of those who can afford to pay £38 upfront and not too much intrusive scrutiny into whether you need the subsidy. Trebles all round, as Private Eye would say.
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Post by eor on Aug 20, 2022 23:45:08 GMT
On the subject of any boost/honeymoon for the new PM, the absence of substantive policy from the government on energy/cost-of-living, and the sudden surge towards Labour being suggested by two of the three recent polls... perhaps I'm being overly cynical but isn't it quite plausible these are all different sides of the same thing? The news is full of coverage about how eye-wateringly expensive energy bills are going to get, even given how much they've already gone up (two 40-50% increases in a less than a year for my parents; a house move and two supplier changes make it beyond ken for this poster personally). Labour say "we'd stop it happening" and their support goes up. As (I think) alec said, it's looking increasingly like this is going to need some kind of Furlough2 to enable the crisis to be weathered without a lot of otherwise viable businesses being crushed and all the economic dominoes of unemployment, mortgage defaults and so on. But for Truss or Sunak, talking about this right now has only downside in their leadership election, even if they know it's what they'll have to do if they become PM. Whereas one of them *will* become PM, and if they do something substantive to make this situation less awful, why wouldn't they get a pretty good boost from that? If Starmer can get one by saying he'd help if only he could, the new PM ought to do a bit better from actually doing it surely?
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Post by guymonde on Aug 20, 2022 23:48:00 GMT
Nice to see lots of old friends still dissecting the latest polls on here.
Even better to see the latest polls! If only Starmer had the charisma of the young Tony Blair eh, 2024 would be another 1997. As it is, who knows.....?
Welcome back Norbold!
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 20, 2022 23:48:09 GMT
Nice to see lots of old friends still dissecting the latest polls on here.
Even better to see the latest polls! If only Starmer had the charisma of the young Tony Blair eh, 2024 would be another 1997. As it is, who knows.....?
Hi Norbold good to see you 🙂
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Post by eor on Aug 20, 2022 23:59:08 GMT
From the US - a remarkable admission from Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell where he downplays their chances of retaking the Senate in November, and blames the quality of their own candidates. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/18/mcconnell-senate-gop-ohio/Senate candidates get chosen in primaries within each state - the central Republican or Democrat party organisations can often influence those elections by channelling funding to certain candidates or arranging for high-profile visits and speeches from a current or former President/VP that will guarantee media coverage, but since the advent of both social media and self-funding candidates they have a lot less control, and it's becoming increasingly common for candidates to get selected by their own voters who either turn out to have a damaging history or just have difficulty appealing widely enough to win in the general election. This year was supposed to be a fairly easy win for the Republicans because it was assumed with the usual mid-term swing against the party holding the White House they'd hold Pennsylvania (where their guy is retiring) and they'd win back the seat that's up in Georgia, putting them up 51-49 and leaving very few realistic opportunities for the Democrats to gain a seat elsewhere, given which 1/3rd happen to be up this time. However, Pennsylvania looks lost and Georgia is on a knife-edge, which makes the Democrats overall favourites to retain control. (if it stays a 50-50 tie the Dems retain power via the casting vote of the Vice President) projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromoBut whilst McConnell is right to say that candidate quality looks like costing them badly this year, it's partly his fault too. He admittedly wanted nothing to do with the celebrity TV doctor from New Jersey who has become their Pennsylvania candidate (and that's going about as well as it sounds), but McConnell eagerly endorsed the former American Football star in Georgia who then decided to make his campaign about paternal responsibility despite having a string of unacknowledged children. There are a couple of other routes to 51-49 for the Republicans if they do sneak the win in Georgia - Nevada being the most likely, or perhaps New Hampshire, but it's gone from looking like it would fall into their lap to needing the stars to align somewhat. But according to FiveThirtyEight, the Republicans are still strong favourites to win the House of Representatives and because all Congressional Bills have to be agreed between the House and Senate, that means they can block Biden's proposals for the next two years. That's true, although retaining the Senate would mean they keep the power to confirm judges and others that Biden wants to nominate to senior federal offices, executive agencies and so on, so a pretty big deal by itself when they hold the White House. Also, after nearly two years of holding the White House, Senate and House, I don't think even many Dems have hope of much legislative impetus coming from Biden in a further two years where he'll either be running for re-election or be an increasingly lame duck.
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Post by robbiealive on Aug 21, 2022 0:45:34 GMT
With the 13% direct Tory 2019-Lab in the latest Opinium, the forecast element of the 'poll' has a lower impact as the redistribution of the DK/WV is in effect in line with those that give a VI. This still boosts the Tories as the retention is higher than evidence suggests the DK/WV breaks would actually produce (R&W have done squeeze question on DKs) It is not though at the 7% level, 3-5% perhaps, would have to analyse the tables closely to give a better estimate (calling James E). However, it appears we are over 10% Lab-Tory lead, though, with the 15% YG being towards the edge of moe. Will it last? Sorry to be grumpy but while I'm sure this is a brilliant analysis, I can't make head or tail of it. It reads like a parody of TW.
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Post by jimjam on Aug 21, 2022 6:34:48 GMT
Robbie the short version is that if the Opinium data was applied with their previous methodology the 8% Lab lead would be 11-13% not 15%.
I could have added more as they made other changes early this year but only focused on the treatment of 2019 voters now saying DK and WV; as that is the forecasting element.
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Post by pete on Aug 21, 2022 6:42:19 GMT
On the subject of any boost/honeymoon for the new PM, the absence of substantive policy from the government on energy/cost-of-living, and the sudden surge towards Labour being suggested by two of the three recent polls... perhaps I'm being overly cynical but isn't it quite plausible these are all different sides of the same thing? The news is full of coverage about how eye-wateringly expensive energy bills are going to get, even given how much they've already gone up (two 40-50% increases in a less than a year for my parents; a house move and two supplier changes make it beyond ken for this poster personally). Labour say "we'd stop it happening" and their support goes up. As (I think) alec said, it's looking increasingly like this is going to need some kind of Furlough2 to enable the crisis to be weathered without a lot of otherwise viable businesses being crushed and all the economic dominoes of unemployment, mortgage defaults and so on. But for Truss or Sunak, talking about this right now has only downside in their leadership election, even if they know it's what they'll have to do if they become PM. Whereas one of them *will* become PM, and if they do something substantive to make this situation less awful, why wouldn't they get a pretty good boost from that? If Starmer can get one by saying he'd help if only he could, the new PM ought to do a bit better from actually doing it surely? All very true but its on their watch (Tories). Are voters willing to forgive? That's not even going into the fact Covid hasn't gone away and winter is coming(the NHS is struggling to cope now, winter?), the brexit shambles keeps rolling on and they said it would all be easy, their right-wing stupefying attempts at destroying democracy, and maybe people just having enough of their MPs who many come across as unempathetic idiots. Though in the Tories favour will be their client presses attempts at destroying Labour as we near an election. And no doubt the lies will be big.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 21, 2022 6:43:36 GMT
Delusional stuff presumably emerging from the regime. Libraries and museums turned into " warm banks" with no explanation how they are expected to pay the uncapped increase in their energy bills. GP's to offer energy vouchers, so those in greatest need only have to wait 4 weeks for an appointment while those with actual medical conditions aren't seen because their doctor is playing diy energy company. Offers of mortgage furloughs when those in greatest need rent or don't have mortgages. A business furlough programme presumably so the hospitality industry can delay it's energy and inflation based bankruptcy until after Christmas.
These policies are , what's the technical term, "fucking nuts"the obvious and immediate solution is to legislate to prevent further rises, primarily using the massive windfall profits from energy companies, who are clearly already shafting us. Not just limited to energy providers we still have fuel costs at around £1.75 a litre retail when the wholesale price and tax levels would indicate nothing over £1.30 would be justified. With additional targeted support for those in greatest need.
We are in the midst of the greatest redistribution of wealth from the vast majority of the population and businesses to a few select energy and fuel oligopalies many involving absurdly wealthy royal families.
And the solution of our next unelected prime minister let them get away with it and tax cuts for the rich!
Cosplay Maggie may be playing to her current Surrey golf club bore electorate but there's no indication of any great insight into the epic fantasy cockwomberlry behind those deer in a headlight eyes.
The fact that the Tories are commiting electoral suicide are on for scores of losses to Labour and the Lib dems is scant compensation for their total abandonment of the basic principles of government, to at least try to act in the public interest.
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Post by mandolinist on Aug 21, 2022 6:59:57 GMT
steve. Yes, all of this. In the meantime, the Tories have abandoned all pretense at "levelling up", and are instead offshoring our futures in their bank accounts. The wild west finance unleashed by brexit and entrenched through the pandemic continues to undermine the rule of law and the basis of democracy. We are going to hell in a borrowed handcart. It is possible that when dairy farmers have to renegotiate their energy contracts and venture capital owners of care homes realise that even they cannot afford to keep their residents warm and fed, even the "natural" supporters of the Conservative party will abandon them. It may, nonetheless be too late for many of us and the planet.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 21, 2022 7:05:52 GMT
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Post by hireton on Aug 21, 2022 7:07:55 GMT
eorI'm not convinced a massive screeching u-turn immediately on taking office confirming the opposition were right(as with the windfall tax) will be a game changer. And Truss will need to explain to her party supporters why she misled them.
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Post by pete on Aug 21, 2022 7:32:34 GMT
Kwasi Kwarteng to rein in green profits as energy price cap set to soar to £6,000 Tony Diver , Lauren Almeida - Yesterday 22:30 Kwasi Kwarteng is planning to clamp down on wind and solar energy firms as a new forecast predicted the energy price cap will hit £6,000 in April. New analysis from the energy consultancy Auxilione said the energy price cap will hit £6,000 in April, after rising to £3,576 in October, and £4,799 in January. Auxilione said the energy prices would not fall until next July, when the cap would drop by a tenth to £5,486. The increase will mean bills will still be almost triple their current level this time next year, as inflation squeezes household budgets by up to 13 per cent. A poll by Opinium on Saturday found that 40 per cent of the public would not be able to afford their bills at all or have to cut back on essential spending if the energy price cap rises to £3,500 in October, while a quarter say they already cannot afford their bills. The Telegraph can reveal Mr Kwarteng, the Business Secretary, is also preparing to intervene in the energy market in an attempt to stabilise the “crazy” profits of renewables firms. Around a third of wind and solar producers are on inflexible legacy contracts, which have earned them billions from the high price of electricity during the energy crisis. Mr Kwarteng is planning to offer the firms a favourable fixed-term rate at which to sell energy to suppliers for 15 years if they agree to stop selling cheap renewables at high wholesale prices. Ministers are under pressure from Tory MPs who argue that renewables firms have made enormous profits from the price of electricity because they can produce it at a cheaper rate. Danny Kruger, who is among those lobbying Mr Kwarteng to end the legacy Renewable Obligation (RO) contracts, said they were “the biggest avoidable driver of inflation we have” and called on ministers to “move as fast as possible to change the rules”. The Telegraph understands firms on the old contracts, which were signed between 2002 and 2013, who have made billions from the energy crisis will instead be offered deals that pay a fixed rate for power. If the companies refuse to switch, some will remain on the variable-rate contracts until 2037, but government sources said such a deal would “help with financial planning and investment decisions” in the long run, while bringing prices down. Even consumers with 100 per cent renewable energy tariffs have seen prices rise. This is because the price of renewable energy is effectively tied to the price of gas and other fossil fuels. If there is more demand than supply, the price of all energy goes up, regardless of the source. So far, ministers have committed to a £400 bill discount in October for 28 million households. But both Mr Sunak and Ms Truss have accepted the Government must do more to assist bill payers, with more than half expected to fall into energy poverty by the new year. Both contenders have rejected calls from the Labour Party for ministers to freeze the energy price cap, preventing bills from rising. On Saturday, it was claimed that Ms Truss's team had been frustrated by Boris Johnson's decision to finance the Sizewell C nuclear power station in Suffolk. The Sunday Times reported that Simon Clarke, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, wrote to Mr Johnson and Nadhim Zahawi, the Chancellor, to complain the move would hinder her ability to cut taxes. A consultation is also underway to reform Britain’s electricity markets, in an attempt to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and imported energy. It is expected to separate the markets of renewable electricity, which is cheap, and gas-produced electricity, which is expensive. Lord Callanan, a business minister, told MPs privately this week that ministers could launch a windfall tax on renewable producers that have not seen their costs increase while wholesale prices have risen. But Ms Truss, who is widely expected to win the leadership contest, has already ruled out such a tax and promised savings by pausing green levies on bills. 'Help is coming' Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Mr Kwarteng defended Ms Truss’s decision not to impose another windfall tax on energy producers as he said she would ease the cost of living crisis through cutting taxes and imposing supply-side reforms to the market. “I understand the deep anxiety this is causing. As winter approaches, millions of families will be concerned about how they are going to make ends meet. But I want to reassure the British people that help is coming,” he said. The RO scheme, which has allowed renewable producers to make billions in profit, is funded by a green levy that costs the average bill payer £75 each year. A Whitehall source said: “Gas generators are making an absolute killing by flogging their electricity to consumers. “The problem is, older renewables are forced to sell their electricity at the market price too, which is set by gas. “Given renewables are dirt cheap and gas is eye-wateringly expensive, we need to decouple the price of renewables from gas so households fully benefit from all forms of cheap renewable energy.” www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/kwasi-kwarteng-to-rein-in-green-profits-as-energy-price-cap-set-to-soar-to-6-000/ar-AA10SW6K?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=dfeb34f8ec944c0eb2c52a4fe0ab7842&fullscreen=true#image=2
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 21, 2022 7:33:53 GMT
eorI'm not convinced a massive screeching u-turn immediately on taking office confirming the opposition were right(as with the windfall tax) will be a game changer. And Truss will need to explain to her party supporters why she misled them. I tend to agree. I suppose it depends whether the legendary tipping point in public opinion has occurred whereby incumbents get little credit whatever they do. Brown got there in 2009/10 when Labour had exhausted their political capital and his good work in staving off the ravages of the financial crash earned him and his government little credit. We need more evidence to judge whether this Tory Government has reached that point of political no-return yet, but I'm seeing straws in the wind that suggest that they might just be heading there.
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Post by jimjam on Aug 21, 2022 7:38:51 GMT
I have just had a look at Opinium tables and without reiterating the numbers I reckon the impact of the 2019 WV/DK effective reallocation is around 4% net off the Lab lead.
The Tory reallocation boosts them by around 5%. However the same approach is taken to Labs 2019 voters now saying WV or DK; and because their retention is much higher even though only 9% of these are now saying DK/WV they gain 1 % or so.
NB) Chris Curtis and Opinium have reported 13% of Tory 2019 voters now saying Labour although, perhaps inconsistently, this is based on those giving a VI.
That number is 10% but increases to 13% when DK/WV responses are discounted which is contrary to what they are doing with their headline reporting.
Adds to the sense that Opinium have got themselves in to a muddle but are stuck with this approach now until the next GE would think.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 21, 2022 8:00:10 GMT
Delusional stuff presumably emerging from the regime. Libraries and museums turned into " warm banks" with no explanation how they are expected to pay the uncapped increase in their energy bills. Presumably that voter who was quoted in the Hartlepool by-election as saying what a brilliant job the Tories had done because there were so many more food banks open in the town than there used to be under Labour will be delighted at this new sign of government success.
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