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Post by hireton on Aug 20, 2022 9:58:26 GMT
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Post by kay9 on Aug 20, 2022 10:08:07 GMT
“Labour need to be 40% ahead in the polls to stand the remotest chance of winning “ Perhaps like this:
Lab: 55 Lib: 15 Con: 10 SNP: 5
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Post by Old Southendian on Aug 20, 2022 10:08:35 GMT
Long time no see, I've been busy. I just wanted to make a quick actual polling point about outliers. Yes, the latest YouGov is almost certainly (I'm tempted to say certainly, but I'm cautious) an outlier. But my point would be that outliers can only be so far from the truth. At 43/28, statistically, these could relatively easily be an outlier from a true value of 40/31. It would be slightly less likely it's an outlier from 39/32, and very unlikely the 'truth' is 38/33 or closer. Of course then there are biases, which are independant of statistical fluctuations, which could push things further in one direction or the other (recently YouGov seem to have been biased to high Labour values). Nevertheless you're not going to get a 43/28 unless either Labour are fairly far ahead, or something very strange is going on. So yes, Labour almost certainly aren't 15% ahead right now, but odds on, they're pretty far ahead, or a result like that would not be possible.
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isa
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Post by isa on Aug 20, 2022 10:08:50 GMT
Remarkable lack of movement considering their previous poll was 6/7 weeks ago. Perhaps suggesting a hardening of the LAB lead at a slightly higher level than was the case a couple of months ago?
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 20, 2022 10:13:09 GMT
“Labour need to be 40% ahead in the polls to stand the remotest chance of winning “ Perhaps like this: Lab: 55 Lib: 15 Con: 10 SNP: 5 Crikey, is that the latest Opinium? Pjw1961 will have to update his change of government model!
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 20, 2022 10:29:17 GMT
Well, no 4th day of the Lord's Test Match to watch. A Saturday free Lords Test is a bit like cancelling Wimbledon or postponing the summer. What are we to do?
I'm off in a bit to sample some grass roots football. Evesham Utd made an early exit from this year's FA Cup so have a blank weekend and the Reds are away at Ilkeston. Too far. So I'm heading to Nailsworth to watch Forest Green Rovers take on Michael Foot's old team, Plymouth Argyle. Nailsworth is marginally closer to me than Villa Park now.
The ticket is bought and a route taking in a CAMRA recommended pub for a bit of lunch has been devised. The Forest Green Rovers ground, an eco-friendly and vegan oasis, is situated on the edge of the town and you approach it from the west via country lanes. Far removed from the approach to the Den in East London as I recall it. No meat pies though, nor Bovril.
Looking forward to it. I will be equipped with my little transistor radio and headphones for score updates around the country, being particularly interested in the goings-on at Selhurst Park, and the final scores as they roll in. Sports Report too on the walk back to the car. I'm going non-tech and revisiting old ways and practices.
Saturday afternoons as they once were and a delving back into a precious piece of my childhood. Silly really, but it's in my soul.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2022 10:33:38 GMT
I will be equipped with my little transistor radio and headphones for score updates around the country, being particularly interested in the goings-on at Selhurst Park ... Eagles due a comfy home win I think (hope)
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 20, 2022 10:38:35 GMT
I would caution Labour supporters about getting too carried away by a single poll. When the ridiculous Tory leadership race is finally over and the party conferences done we might see something resembling the next GE result in the polls, but don't forget that there are likely to be boundary changes which could affect things too. The worse it looks for the Tories now, the longer they will be inclined to avoid a GE (in the Micawberish hope of something turning up). If I was a betting man, i would be putting some money now on an Autumn 2024 election before the odds shorten further. Those boundary changes are expected to be worth ~20 seats to the Tories, so that's a strong incentive not to go to the country before July 2023, when the four Boundary Commissions have to release their final reports.
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 20, 2022 10:44:14 GMT
From the US - a remarkable admission from Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell where he downplays their chances of retaking the Senate in November, and blames the quality of their own candidates. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/18/mcconnell-senate-gop-ohio/Senate candidates get chosen in primaries within each state - the central Republican or Democrat party organisations can often influence those elections by channelling funding to certain candidates or arranging for high-profile visits and speeches from a current or former President/VP that will guarantee media coverage, but since the advent of both social media and self-funding candidates they have a lot less control, and it's becoming increasingly common for candidates to get selected by their own voters who either turn out to have a damaging history or just have difficulty appealing widely enough to win in the general election. This year was supposed to be a fairly easy win for the Republicans because it was assumed with the usual mid-term swing against the party holding the White House they'd hold Pennsylvania (where their guy is retiring) and they'd win back the seat that's up in Georgia, putting them up 51-49 and leaving very few realistic opportunities for the Democrats to gain a seat elsewhere, given which 1/3rd happen to be up this time. However, Pennsylvania looks lost and Georgia is on a knife-edge, which makes the Democrats overall favourites to retain control. (if it stays a 50-50 tie the Dems retain power via the casting vote of the Vice President) projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromoBut whilst McConnell is right to say that candidate quality looks like costing them badly this year, it's partly his fault too. He admittedly wanted nothing to do with the celebrity TV doctor from New Jersey who has become their Pennsylvania candidate (and that's going about as well as it sounds), but McConnell eagerly endorsed the former American Football star in Georgia who then decided to make his campaign about paternal responsibility despite having a string of unacknowledged children. There are a couple of other routes to 51-49 for the Republicans if they do sneak the win in Georgia - Nevada being the most likely, or perhaps New Hampshire, but it's gone from looking like it would fall into their lap to needing the stars to align somewhat. But according to FiveThirtyEight, the Republicans are still strong favourites to win the House of Representatives and because all Congressional Bills have to be agreed between the House and Senate, that means they can block Biden's proposals for the next two years.
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Post by shevii on Aug 20, 2022 10:44:45 GMT
You would have to define "lockdown" to come to a conclusion on this. There's only been one proper lockdown when we knew very little about the disease and the country was in a state of panic anyway. Where I work had already closed it's doors (more or less) before the first and only full lockdown was announced- not least because no-one was buying anything anyway. In retrospect the lockdown criteria (one hour's exercise a day if I remember rightly) was extreme but no-one could be sure how easily it was being transmitted and how to avoid catching it- also perhaps needed to be extreme to ensure people took the threat seriously and there were no get out clauses for anyone breaking lockdown rules.
Probably the worst aspect was something of a hold on medical assessments and treatments but surely this goes hand on hand with the number of covid cases the NHS had to deal with? This must to some degree balance out with having less time for those medical assessments and treatment. More covid cases, more strained resources so same outcome whether you lockdown or don't.
Since then, seems to me that "lockdowns" have been sensible precautions for non vital services. Of course hospitality was affected so there was an economic hit and perhaps at the edges were mental health issues arising from lack of socialising opportunities but there's mental health issues arising from losing a loved one or from long Covid or whatever.
We're not going to lockdown to the same extent again I would imagine so the debate should really be around what are sensible precautions and balancing the economy with outbreaks that need to be contained to some degree.
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Post by robas on Aug 20, 2022 10:57:15 GMT
During the Conservative Party leadership contest the general public have come to learn a lot more about Liz Truss, her political motivations, her policy agenda and potential members of her new Cabinet.
The latest polls seem to show a fall in Conservative support.
As it is now blindingly obvious to everyone that she is going to be our new Prime Minister, the possibility of there being a connection here is becoming irresistible. Which, in my opinion, if true, leaves the Conservative Party in a bit of a bind.
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Post by isa on Aug 20, 2022 11:01:40 GMT
I'm off in a bit to sample some grass roots football. Evesham Utd made an early exit from this year's FA Cup so have a blank weekend and the Reds are away at Ilkeston. Too far. So I'm heading to Nailsworth to watch Forest Green Rovers take on Michael Foot's old team, Plymouth Argyle. Nailsworth is marginally closer to me than Villa Park now. I spent several miserable Boxing Day afternoons at Forest Green back in the day watching them invariably beat Yeovil Town in our traditional festive fixture. Yeovil were on the verge of their greatest period then, knocking on the door of the Football League, and Forest Green were new kids on the block. Their rise has been remarkable, and good luck to them. How footballing fortunes can change, though. Nine years ago, I was at Wembley to see Yeovil beat Brentford in the League One playoff, and therefore gain promotion to the Championship, really fairytale stuff for my little team. Now Brentford are beating Man U 4-0 in the Prem and the Yeovil 'Icarus' has fallen back to the National League, losing at home to Barnet last time out and seemingly consigned to footballing obscurity for the duration. Hey-ho.
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Post by mandolinist on Aug 20, 2022 11:15:04 GMT
I have just had some news which supports the idea that small businesses and voluntary sector organisations are really struggling with the current economic situation.
The local food community interest company which has been my preferred supplier of all things local, from cheese to apples and fish to meat has gone bust. After twenty years of bringing producers and customers together with weekly deliveries across Somerset and into Bristol they ceased trading yesterday.
I suspect, although I don't know this for definite yet, that it was negotiating a new energy supply contract which has finally done for them. It leaves a whole tranch of farmers and growers without access to customers in Bristol, unless they take a day out to come to the Farmers market.
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Post by shevii on Aug 20, 2022 11:25:03 GMT
Well, no 4th day of the Lord's Test Match to watch. A Saturday free Lords Test is a bit like cancelling Wimbledon or postponing the summer. What are we to do? I'm off in a bit to sample some grass roots football. Evesham Utd made an early exit from this year's FA Cup so have a blank weekend and the Reds are away at Ilkeston. Too far. So I'm heading to Nailsworth to watch Forest Green Rovers take on Michael Foot's old team, Plymouth Argyle. Nailsworth is marginally closer to me than Villa Park now. The ticket is bought and a route taking in a CAMRA recommended pub for a bit of lunch has been devised. The Forest Green Rovers ground, an eco-friendly and vegan oasis, is situated on the edge of the town and you approach it from the west via country lanes. Far removed from the approach to the Den in East London as I recall it. No meat pies though, nor Bovril. Looking forward to it. I will be equipped with my little transistor radio and headphones for score updates around the country, being particularly interested in the goings-on at Selhurst Park, and the final scores as they roll in. Sports Report too on the walk back to the car. I'm going non-tech and revisiting old ways and practices. Saturday afternoons as they once were and a delving back into a precious piece of my childhood. Silly really, but it's in my soul. You're cheating- they didn't have headphones for transistors back in the day I don't think, or at least out of most people's price range- needed to be held to your ear waiting for the sole Middlesbrough goal when Jack Charlton was manager to come somewhere between the 83rd and 90th minute for a 1-0 home win (the away games were always 0-0 so it didn't matter). Also you now won't get the regular queries as to how the other teams are doing- "how did Gloucester City get on mate?". Instant communications have ruined this a bit and I miss the half time scoreboard by reference to the programme with match A, match B etc scores being put up and always the doubt that the person who put up the scores had got something wrong. The Den was always a traumatic experience and probably worse for a Brummie trying to put on a Sarf London accent when someone asked you have you got the time. The bleak local area didn't help either and I even felt a little bit wary going to Fisher Athletic and was right to be as inside the ground there was a little gang of 12 year old girls making fun of our trainers. Chelsea was wagon wheels and monkey nuts sold on the terraces but the main Chelsea rose tinted jumpers for goalposts experience tended to revolve around the unsavoury "North Stand- do your job" and "It's a long way to Fulham Broadway" songs. I was fortunate enough to catch the end of the era of the singing of "Chelsea boot boys" before football songs got more sophisticated and things moved on to the modern well crafted songs written by people who must have had an A-Level in English such as "you're shit and you know you are". I went to a Wigan Europa Cup game a few years back and was proud to be British when the away fans sang "you're sheet and you know you are". To think that these home made songs had reached an international audience. Biggest cheer of the night from the home fans when they sang that. Enjoy Forest Green- it is quite incredible what they have achieved.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2022 12:42:58 GMT
I would caution Labour supporters about getting too carried away by a single poll. When the ridiculous Tory leadership race is finally over and the party conferences done we might see something resembling the next GE result in the polls, but don't forget that there are likely to be boundary changes which could affect things too. Thanks for that excellent advice Pete. I had stupidly thought that the opinion poll you referenced meant that Labour had already won the next General election.
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Post by lens on Aug 20, 2022 12:45:47 GMT
You're cheating- they didn't have headphones for transistors back in the day I don't think, or at least out of most people's price range-.................. Maybe not headphones as such (which were pretty big in those days) but you certainly got small earpieces a very long time ago which plugged into 3.5mm jacks on a lot of radios.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Aug 20, 2022 12:47:26 GMT
I would caution Labour supporters about getting too carried away by a single poll. When the ridiculous Tory leadership race is finally over and the party conferences done we might see something resembling the next GE result in the polls, but don't forget that there are likely to be boundary changes which could affect things too. Thanks for that excellent advice Pete. I had stupidly thought that the opinion poll you referenced meant that Labour had already won the next General election. Well judging by how the BBC are acting in terms of scrutiny, Labour are already in gvt and the Tories campaigning in opposition.
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 20, 2022 12:47:54 GMT
Long time no see, I've been busy. I just wanted to make a quick actual polling point about outliers. Yes, the latest YouGov is almost certainly (I'm tempted to say certainly, but I'm cautious) an outlier. But my point would be that outliers can only be so far from the truth. At 43/28, statistically, these could relatively easily be an outlier from a true value of 40/31. It would be slightly less likely it's an outlier from 39/32, and very unlikely the 'truth' is 38/33 or closer. Of course then there are biases, which are independant of statistical fluctuations, which could push things further in one direction or the other (recently YouGov seem to have been biased to high Labour values). Nevertheless you're not going to get a 43/28 unless either Labour are fairly far ahead, or something very strange is going on. So yes, Labour almost certainly aren't 15% ahead right now, but odds on, they're pretty far ahead, or a result like that would not be possible. Yes, quite right. For the two main parties (i.e. polling 30% or more, as opposed to the minor parties polling 10% or less) you would expect 19 out of 20 polls to be within ± 3% of the 'true' support (what you would measure if you polled everyone in the country). But there are two further factors to consider: first the sum of the support for all parties has to add up to 100% (rounding errors may make it 99% or 101% but rarely more or less), so an increase for one of the two major parties is usually mirrored by a decrease for the other, because there are too few votes for the minor parties in the sample to make up the difference; secondly, and more importantly in my opinion, is the role of likelihood to vote (LTV). All pollsters incorporate this in their headline figures but ask the question in different ways. YouGov use a scale from 0% to 100% in 10% intervals, while Redfield and Wilton have a scale of 5 (certain to vote), 4(Probably will vote), 3 (Leaning towards voting, but might not vote), 2 (Leaning towards not voting, but could vote), 1 (Probably will not vote) and 0 (Definitely will not vote). Each point on the scale represents a 20% increment in the weighting factor. What we don't know is how well these judgments correspond to actual voter behaviour. So, if for example, 40% of a Redfield and Wilton sample said they would vote Labour and all said they were certain to vote, this would be recorded as 40% in the headline figure, but if they all said that they probably will vote, it would be recorded as 32% (40%*4/5). Apart from "certain to vote" and "definitely will not vote" there is a degree of uncertainty in how well the response to the question reflects the true LTV and this increases the ± 3%, but by how much we do not know (I hope that the pollsters do). In principle, polls taken close to election day should allow this error to be quantified.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2022 12:48:51 GMT
“Labour need to be 40% ahead in the polls to stand the remotest chance of winning “ Perhaps like this: Lab: 55 Lib: 15 Con: 10 SNP: 5 You’ve mixed up SNP/Con.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 20, 2022 13:02:56 GMT
You're cheating- they didn't have headphones for transistors back in the day I don't think, or at least out of most people's price range-.................. Maybe not headphones as such (which were pretty big in those days) but you certainly got small earpieces a very long time ago which plugged into 3.5mm jacks on a lot of radios. I had a transistor radio in the sixties. Used to lie in bed listening to radio Caroline or Radio Luxembourg. Had a little earpiece.
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Post by moby on Aug 20, 2022 13:08:06 GMT
During the Conservative Party leadership contest the general public have come to learn a lot more about Liz Truss, her political motivations, her policy agenda and potential members of her new Cabinet. The latest polls seem to show a fall in Conservative support. As it is now blindingly obvious to everyone that she is going to be our new Prime Minister, the possibility of there being a connection here is becoming irresistible. Which, in my opinion, if true, leaves the Conservative Party in a bit of a bind. Perhaps there are a group of people who had an allegiance to Johnson rather than the Tories and his fall has resulted in a reduction of support for the party. It'll be interesting to see how large this group is and what their impact is on polling in the coming months. I see Truss is following a strategy of trying to stay close to Johnson and goes out her way to accentuate the positives about him; she realises about 40% of the Tory membership want him back.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 20, 2022 13:10:03 GMT
Labour-should-do-this; Labour-should-do-that.
Labour-should-be-this; Labour-should-be-that.
I’m very happy with what Labour are doing.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2022 13:18:38 GMT
Labour-should-do-this; Labour-should-do-that. Labour-should-be-this; Labour-should-be-that. I’m very happy with what Labour are doing. Bring back ole Corby and let’s just say NO to all wars and injustice throughout the world. Bob’s-yer-Uncle.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 20, 2022 13:25:29 GMT
Thanks for that excellent advice Pete. I had stupidly thought that the opinion poll you referenced meant that Labour had already won the next General election. Well judging by how the BBC are acting in terms of scrutiny, Labour are already in gvt and the Tories campaigning in opposition.To be fair the Tories do seem to have given up on governing, its just they are not letting anyone else have a go either.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Aug 20, 2022 13:46:16 GMT
As polls are fewer and far between, with people on hols etc the relative chance of you getting an outlier is higher. But it could be the start of real sign that a growing section of the electorate has become sick and tired of the Tories and their goings on - while in the real world people are facing real challenges and a drop in living standards. Looking at the polls on independence, there seems to be a shift from yes to DK - again perhaps this reflects a general shift away from the primacy of constitutional/identity driven politics that has such an impact on VI over the past few years, to one based more on the realities of every day life. In which case the electorate is likely to punish those parties that don't respond effectively to that switch in emphasis and sentiment amongst the electorate.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 20, 2022 13:47:13 GMT
Labour-should-do-this; Labour-should-do-that. Labour-should-be-this; Labour-should-be-that. I’m very happy with what Labour are doing. Bring back ole Corby and let’s just say NO to all wars and injustice throughout the world. Bob’s-yer-Uncle. Haha. I’m gonna do a hyphen-count. The person who uses the most in a day gets a gold-star 😀
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Post by mercian on Aug 20, 2022 13:54:36 GMT
I-am-determined-to-win-the-hyphen-count.This-is-because-I-want-my-gold-star.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2022 14:28:42 GMT
I-am-determined-to-win-the-hyphen-count.This-is-because-I-want-my-gold-star. Unnecessary use of a full-stop when yet another hyphen could have been sneaked in disqualifies you. Shame - it was a jolly good effort.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 20, 2022 14:28:49 GMT
I-am-determined-to-win-the-hyphen-count.This-is-because-I-want-my-gold-star. have hyphenated my name, that way I get half-a-dozen hyphens in every post without any bother. (And it therefore retrospectively adds hyphens to all the old posts) (So that’s 1302 posts, times 6 hyphens each. So far…) 🥂
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Aug 20, 2022 15:17:25 GMT
Shevil - You should have tried being a West Ham fan going to The Den in '89 and '91. Scenes, as the kids say today. Crossbat - I like your style. Hope it’s a decent game.
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