c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,185
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 19, 2022 20:28:28 GMT
Four in 10 under-30s locked into rent contracts that exceed 30% of pay
“Under-30s renters in Great Britain are facing a financial crisis, with the number paying an unaffordable share of their earnings to landlords hitting a five-year high, according to research
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Rapidly rising rents, which agents and property companies blame on a lack of supply, are forcing potential tenants to offer over the asking price, or renew deals at much higher levels, as people are willing to bid more than the listed price just to secure a property.”
www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/19/four-in-10-under-30s-locked-into-rent-contracts-that-exceed-30-per-cent-of-pay-great-britain“ The rental crisis facing under-30s is adding to pressure on their finances as households face soaring energy and food bills, with inflation at a 40-year high.”
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 19, 2022 20:34:47 GMT
YouGov with a 15 point Labour lead: Am I right in saying Yougov have gone from showing a 1 point lead to a 15 point lead in the space of 2 weeks? That's getting close to the kind of govt in waiting status Labour attained in the years running up to '97.
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Post by RAF on Aug 19, 2022 20:35:01 GMT
Gove coming out for Sunak when he knows the election is practically over and calling Truss a fantasist are indications that Truss's premiership may be short lived.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 19, 2022 20:36:48 GMT
YouGov with a 15 point Labour lead: First poll conducted since the energy price cap freeze proposal from Labour. A 15% Labour lead is starting to get us into backbench Tory MP "this can't go on" country. A long winded way of describing panic. And a You Gov 15% Labour lead too. That would be 35% in Angus Reid money.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 19, 2022 20:40:14 GMT
That's three photographs of Truss and Gove in the last six posts.
We need to stop quoting Hireton's post for all our sakes.
Good poll though.
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Post by mercian on Aug 19, 2022 20:48:49 GMT
alec Not sure that it's total silence in Whitehall. Schappsy, as we affectionately call him, is on the airwaves regularly. His latest utterance threatens to impose the latest offer from the rail companies on to the rail unions without any further negotiations. This comes after talk about making strikes on the railways illegal. He's also talked about shipping in agency employees as a way of breaking the strike. Schappsy is on fire. Imposing an offer does not stop further strikes though. Labour needs to attack the increasingly Fascist tinge to some of the Tory rhetoric by inviting both contenders to reveal when they became admirers of Mussolini - Franco- Salazaar - and the Greek colonels. Saying nothing is not good enough - this needs to be opposed with the same firm determination we saw against Mosley both before and after World War2 in his various guises. I thought Mosley made an excellent Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (for Labour of course). 😁 By the way, fans will have noticed that I've changed my moniker back, having proved to my own satisfaction my hypothesis that having 'left' in my name would lead to less personal abuse.
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Post by alec on Aug 19, 2022 21:06:56 GMT
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Post by davem on Aug 19, 2022 21:09:20 GMT
YouGov with a 15 point Labour lead: On Electoral Calculus this give a Labour majority of 120!
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,083
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Post by oldnat on Aug 19, 2022 21:24:56 GMT
YouGov with a 15 point Labour lead: On Electoral Calculus this give a Labour majority of 120! Just as well that Labour won't need any extra MPs from Scotland then - as Electoral Calculus, using the current YG 7 poll average for Scotland, shows Ian Murray as the lone one again, alongside 1 Lib Dem and 2 Tories.
But that seems a highly unlikely prospect! Even on those numbers, I'd assume SLab would take East Lothian and Kirkcaldy from Alba.
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Post by graham on Aug 19, 2022 21:27:42 GMT
YouGov with a 15 point Labour lead: On Electoral Calculus this give a Labour majority of 120! Nothing like as big as that on UNS basis - though Labour would oust Simon Clarke and Rees Mogg.
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Post by davem on Aug 19, 2022 21:33:41 GMT
On Electoral Calculus this give a Labour majority of 120! Just as well that Labour won't need any extra MPs from Scotland then - as Electoral Calculus, using the current YG 7 poll average for Scotland, shows Ian Murray as the lone one again, alongside 1 Lib Dem and 2 Tories.
But that seems a highly unlikely prospect! Even on those numbers, I'd assume SLab would take East Lothian and Kirkcaldy from Alba.It also fails to give the Lib Dems any significant gains in the south west. I think there will be a significant ABC vote in seats where the Lib Dems are second, giving them more seats at the expense of the Tories. This will not change the overall majority but it could see a much bigger loss of Tory MP’s. In the longer term this could work out well for the Tories as it will clear out a lot of the UKIP infiltrator MP’s, giving them two elections to return to the one nation party which can win elections.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,083
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Post by oldnat on Aug 19, 2022 21:34:25 GMT
nickp
"The definition of a nationalist of any kind."
What an odd way to categorise the SDLP.
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Post by graham on Aug 19, 2022 21:37:36 GMT
The Tories are certainly not receiving the boost enjoyed by the party in November 1990 when the second round of the Leadership contest was under way. Before Major emerged as the winner the Tories were back in the lead under each potential successor to Thatcher.
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Post by matt126 on Aug 19, 2022 21:49:03 GMT
If the poll continue to be that bad for the Tories, might we see a sudden change of policy regarding the energy price cap and the proposed tax cuts, or will Truss (assuming wins) stick to what was promised and suffer almost inevitable electoral disaster.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,185
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 19, 2022 21:58:44 GMT
That's three photographs of Truss and Gove in the last six posts. For variety
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Post by reggieside on Aug 19, 2022 22:22:02 GMT
Truss will belatedly be forced to provide emergency help to the tens of millions who will not able to pay their bills. And surely will have to do something about all the businesses who will be knacked by a massive hike in fuel bills as well. To do otherwise will be to crash the economy and reap a terrible social costs. Meanwhile the pressure - on labour particularly - to re-nationalise the energy companies will become ever greater (i expect their will be a motion to that affect at conference). The mass non-payment campaign may well take off as well. I think that the cost of living crises is going to be like the poll tax for the tories. Pushing tax cuts at a time like this is bobbins.
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Post by EmCat on Aug 19, 2022 22:45:03 GMT
That's three photographs of Truss and Gove in the last six posts. We need to stop quoting Hireton's post for all our sakes. Good poll though. Having just watched the last 4 episodes of The Sandman, it somehow seems as though the dream is repeating But is the picture the dream, and the poll the waking world? Possibly
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Post by isa on Aug 19, 2022 23:03:26 GMT
YouGov with a 15 point Labour lead: On Electoral Calculus this give a Labour majority of 120! Just For Fun, I know, but I did the same and got a LAB majority of 126. Much lower than '97, but with LAB winning seats they didn't even get close to winning under Blair, presumably partially due to demographic changes. They would include Huntingdon, (Major's old seat, I think), Altrincham and Sale, (so a new 1922 Committee chairman required), North Somerset, (Liam Fox), and Weston-Super-Mare, (Mr Dido Harding). Hey-ho!
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Post by mercian on Aug 19, 2022 23:12:00 GMT
I would caution Labour supporters about getting too carried away by a single poll. When the ridiculous Tory leadership race is finally over and the party conferences done we might see something resembling the next GE result in the polls, but don't forget that there are likely to be boundary changes which could affect things too.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,397
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 19, 2022 23:21:59 GMT
I would caution Labour supporters about getting too carried away by a single poll. When the ridiculous Tory leadership race is finally over and the party conferences done we might see something resembling the next GE result in the polls, but don't forget that there are likely to be boundary changes which could affect things too. I agree with the caution re a single poll (especially as it is the volatile YouGov) but electoral calculus gives a Labour majority of 114 even on the new boundaries. The Tory leadership contest and Johnson's vanishing act have made that party look woefully out of touch.
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Post by isa on Aug 19, 2022 23:23:58 GMT
I would caution Labour supporters about getting too carried away by a single poll. When the ridiculous Tory leadership race is finally over and the party conferences done we might see something resembling the next GE result in the polls, but don't forget that there are likely to be boundary changes which could affect things too. Hence me prefacing my recent post with "Just For Fun, I know".
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,397
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 19, 2022 23:24:48 GMT
Just as well that Labour won't need any extra MPs from Scotland then - as Electoral Calculus, using the current YG 7 poll average for Scotland, shows Ian Murray as the lone one again, alongside 1 Lib Dem and 2 Tories.
But that seems a highly unlikely prospect! Even on those numbers, I'd assume SLab would take East Lothian and Kirkcaldy from Alba. It also fails to give the Lib Dems any significant gains in the south west. I think there will be a significant ABC vote in seats where the Lib Dems are second, giving them more seats at the expense of the Tories. This will not change the overall majority but it could see a much bigger loss of Tory MP’s. In the longer term this could work out well for the Tories as it will clear out a lot of the UKIP infiltrator MP’s, giving them two elections to return to the one nation party which can win elections. I agree. If the electorate turns strongly against the Tories there will be tactical voting (as there was in 1997) that will do them additional damage not reflected in the standard models. I don't see Truss as the person to turn this around.
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Post by joeboy on Aug 20, 2022 0:13:25 GMT
I would caution Labour supporters about getting too carried away by a single poll. When the ridiculous Tory leadership race is finally over and the party conferences done we might see something resembling the next GE result in the polls, but don't forget that there are likely to be boundary changes which could affect things too. If Labour are 15 points ahead they sweep home regardless of boundary changes. But to all those Tory MPs panicking tonight I 'd pass on your advice that that 'there are other jobs'.
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Post by eor on Aug 20, 2022 3:12:14 GMT
From the US - a remarkable admission from Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell where he downplays their chances of retaking the Senate in November, and blames the quality of their own candidates. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/18/mcconnell-senate-gop-ohio/Senate candidates get chosen in primaries within each state - the central Republican or Democrat party organisations can often influence those elections by channelling funding to certain candidates or arranging for high-profile visits and speeches from a current or former President/VP that will guarantee media coverage, but since the advent of both social media and self-funding candidates they have a lot less control, and it's becoming increasingly common for candidates to get selected by their own voters who either turn out to have a damaging history or just have difficulty appealing widely enough to win in the general election. This year was supposed to be a fairly easy win for the Republicans because it was assumed with the usual mid-term swing against the party holding the White House they'd hold Pennsylvania (where their guy is retiring) and they'd win back the seat that's up in Georgia, putting them up 51-49 and leaving very few realistic opportunities for the Democrats to gain a seat elsewhere, given which 1/3rd happen to be up this time. However, Pennsylvania looks lost and Georgia is on a knife-edge, which makes the Democrats overall favourites to retain control. (if it stays a 50-50 tie the Dems retain power via the casting vote of the Vice President) projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromoBut whilst McConnell is right to say that candidate quality looks like costing them badly this year, it's partly his fault too. He admittedly wanted nothing to do with the celebrity TV doctor from New Jersey who has become their Pennsylvania candidate (and that's going about as well as it sounds), but McConnell eagerly endorsed the former American Football star in Georgia who then decided to make his campaign about paternal responsibility despite having a string of unacknowledged children. There are a couple of other routes to 51-49 for the Republicans if they do sneak the win in Georgia - Nevada being the most likely, or perhaps New Hampshire, but it's gone from looking like it would fall into their lap to needing the stars to align somewhat.
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steve
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Posts: 12,263
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Post by steve on Aug 20, 2022 5:44:59 GMT
eor Herschell Walker the GOP candidate in Georgia uses his mental health issues arising from his career in pro football as an excuse for his domestic abuse. Or rather people make the excuse for him as he appears incapable of stringing a coherent sentence together. I appreciate speaking in word salad is a favourite of Agent Orange but Walker takes it to a whole new level where his campaign actively avoid allowing him to speak at all. This may well be the result of the brain injury he has suffered like many other American football players but while it's a genuine affliction it almost certainly renders him unfit for any office. However being deranged is clearly no hinderence in the modern GOP provided they declare undying loyalty to the coupster it's an advantage.
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Post by alec on Aug 20, 2022 6:13:40 GMT
Who knows, but it may be notable that we haven't had any posts from our Danny for the last 24 hours or so, since he made the claim that "covid regulations specify that even a test which found a patient not to have covid must be entered on the death cert. That counts as a mention on the cert- that they didn't have it!!!"
I challenged him to provide the evidence for this, and after 30 seconds googling I provided two official sources that directly contradicted this fake claim. I also reported the original post to Mark, because I fed up with Danny deliberately spreading fake news. Job well done, as far as I'm concerned.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2022 6:14:03 GMT
It looks like others agree with me / this prolonged and deranged blue on blue slanging match is destroying the Tories
Can they recover? Probably
Will Truss recover their fortunes? Doubtful
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Post by alec on Aug 20, 2022 6:35:11 GMT
Starting to wonder whether the government needs to begin thinking about a furlough scheme for businesses hit with energy price rises.
A key aspect here is that we are on the cusp of losing a huge chunk of productive capacity, from otherwise viable businesses. A full furlough for all staff would be hugely expensive, but may be we can consider a scheme where business owners can lay off staff and mothball their businesses on a temporary basis, with targeted funding to cover the standing costs that will still be incurred whether or not the business keeps trading.
There is a labour shortage anyway, so having a freed up pool of labour will help in that regard, but there would then be an ability to recover more quickly if and when fuel costs subside to a manageable point.
It's either something like this or government direction to keep energy costs down, as some EU countries are doing. Sailing on as we are is going to see wholesale permanent closure of a large chunk of the economy, exposing the laissez faire nature of right wing governance for the long term failure that it is.
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neilj
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Posts: 6,021
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Post by neilj on Aug 20, 2022 6:38:15 GMT
I suspect the latest yougov is an outlier, but I think it does indicate direction of travel
On the Labour side they have come out with some good and popular policies on the energy price cap and the minimum wage.
On the tory side the self destructive slanging match goes on. Also the likely winner Liz Truss has a lot of skeletons in her cupboard which has stared to come out. But worse she is positioning herself on the side of big business and high earners at the expense of those on lower and average earners.
Overshadowing this is an economic crisis that is only like to get worse in the coming year
Can see there being another tory leadership election in the next 12 months.
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Aug 20, 2022 6:51:12 GMT
I agree with all of that Neil, except the last line. Don’t get me wrong, I think a Truss premiership would be in crisis within a year but a leadership election by then? I wouldn’t put it as odds on.
I don’t want to get carried away by one poll. Well I do, 🙂 but I won’t. I particularly agree with your “direction of travel” comment. That poll the other day saying 85% of Tory voters agreed with Labour’s plans on an energy cap might have been a bit of a cut-through moment if a percentage of Conservative voters can see that Labour are trying to look after them whilst their own party do little/ carry on holidaying/ continue with their interminably long leadership fight even as peoples worries grow and grow. We’ll see.
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