Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2022 8:59:48 GMT
alec . Hmm, I cannot imagine not closing curtains, I don't leave things on standby, I only boil the water I need for a hot drink, I batch cook, I use thermostatic controls on my radiators, have very short showers, use the washing machine only when it is full, light only the room I am in, I have shutters and curtains on most of my windows, have fully insulated loft, walls over 1 metre thick, but am not allowed double glazing. I am waiting for listed building consent to instal a woodburner which should reduce the need for the central heating. Now where are my 20% savings coming from? You could turn the thermostat down and wear an extra layer of clothes? That's by far the most effective way of saving energy. Hmm. personally I find I use the thermostat as a handy on/off switch which is turned down to switch off heating and up when its needed. this sort of usage is probably saving rather more because it basically means heating is only on during the limited times its needed. or for a bit of luxury. Mostly heats the air.
People have different patterns of usage. i havnt often lived in houses heated 24 hours. Its a quick burst. But as people get older and are sitting about indoors more, then they start needing 24 hour heat. Or even if its nominally off at night, the house still retains heat, and from my experience occasionally i found a house still seems warm in winter maybe a week after heating was swithced off from previously most of the day. So a lot of stored heat in the brickwork.
Obviously zonal heating helps, so switch off radiators in rooms not being used. But keep the door closed.
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Post by alec on Aug 12, 2022 9:05:43 GMT
@danny - "I did that years ago. I concluded the monitoring programmes for illness are very specifically designed to search for certain specific illnesses but ignore others."
I don't believe you. No reasonable person could make such a claim if they had actually studied the wide range of ILI monitoring programmes used in the UK in 2019 and since. They cover all ILI's, including the unidenitified ones, and the fact that you make such a claim demonstrates that you are either stupid or a wilful liar.
"And having looked into exactly what the disease monitoring services do, they have several different methods but essentially all would have missed a small number of serious cases in a restricted area like the urban region of Hastings and bexhill."
Again, just completely, totally wrong. You have no idea what you are talking about.
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 12, 2022 9:06:08 GMT
But what happens if you twist the straw and join both ends together? How many holes do you get then? Or you shorten it until, in the limit, it is simply a two-dimensional shape -- a circle perhaps (but it could have been squashed in the shortening process). :-)
How many holes has a circle?
I think it is to the credit of the teachers of the New Mathematics in schools that the majority of the population now have an implicit understanding of topology, even as their ability to add and multiply (and so see through the claims of politicians) has atrophied.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2022 9:07:00 GMT
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Post by laszlo4new on Aug 12, 2022 9:15:56 GMT
Extraordinary . "The Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) said there were 1.85 million job adverts in the last week of July, with up to 200,000 being added every week in the past month." Bloomberg Indeed, there is a huge shortage of labour. My two examples are perhaps not representative, but still. I have been to a business networking event about 10 days ago. It was mainly medium sized companies (so about 200-300 employees) in the broad sense (!) of manufacturing sector in the NW. They all complained about shortages (OK, not only labour), and that they couldn't service their potential market. There were some who shared their positive experience with other businesses, and one thing seemed to be taken up by quite a few of those present. They were offering accredited apprenticeship (fully paid) for all new recruits (it was mainly about the use of digitalisation and new technology in mnufacturing). They emphasized that it may mean that they would lose them once they had the certificate, but in the meantime they have almost enough labour, and that it was a strategic issue). The other one was a networking event for professional services companies (NW and parts of Yorkshire) this week. They said that they were OK in the South in terms of recruitment (also that freelance labour was more accepted there), but had a major issue in the North. They invited career services from universities (including those that became universities in 1992), and there was a kind of consensus that instead of using Tier 2 student visas (2 years employment after graduation), they would offer the wage to international graduates that enable them to have a working visa. Again labour turnover was a concern, but buying time was more important for many companies present.
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 12, 2022 9:16:18 GMT
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Post by jib on Aug 12, 2022 9:17:46 GMT
jib Actually I've never found it necessary to check Twitter but I'm sure there's some forgotten corner of it where people still believe the brexitanian bill shit. Meanwhile as we are a some times polling site here's some polling. The question should be "Should the UK join the EU". We'd better ask the EU too. The divorced party has also moved on. No, there isn't going to be a rejoin referendum soon. The sooner you realise that leaving the EU was a generational decision that's for the long term (i.e. your lifetime), the sooner you can rationalise life.
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Post by jib on Aug 12, 2022 9:21:38 GMT
JiB: "increasingly scant morsels of negative news you can try and blame on Brexit."They are not scant, they are not morsels, and there is no need to 'try' to blame them on brexit. Try this one for size. Last week, Rees-Mogg admitted that an extra 91,000 civil servants had been needed since 2016, at a direct cost of "at least £3.5bn per year." to that, of course, has to be added the opportunity cost of all the more productive work all those people could otherwise be doing. A little bit of mendacious calculation and that could come out at a 'rounded up' £350 million a week. How might that figure be got across to the more impressionable parts of the electorate? I know, we could put it on the side of a bus and say it could have been spent on the NHS. In the meantime, perhaps you'd like to have a go at proving "at least £3.5bn a year" is a scant morsel? Or that it isn't really a consequence of brexit, just something that remainers "try to blame" it on? There are plenty more examples where that one came from. But, oddly, those who claim there isn't evidence of brexit harm seem strangely reluctant to engage with the contrary evidence when it's presented to them. Don't bother me with the facts, I'm a brexit believer, eh? Civil servants to deliver the remit of a now sovereign UK, no longer some Federalised backwater where decisions made in Brussels were rubber stamped by a complicit establishment. I'm happy we've left. It could have been a closer relationship, but Remainers didn't want to compromise. Your choice.
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Post by laszlo4new on Aug 12, 2022 9:25:08 GMT
Just in case.
The definition of recession as two consecutive quarters' drop in GDP is an OECD definition, and some member states don't use it (most notably the US, where they use 11 different factors and the most important seems to be the non-farm employment).
I don't think that the two Qs is useful for the UK. It was heading to recession in 2019 (drop in economic activity in interlinked (supplier-customer) sectors (including foreign trade links), due to the drop in return on investment, but the Covid (and government intervention) postponed it.
If I have the time, I will later elaborate on the recession and its likely nature in the near future.
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Post by moby on Aug 12, 2022 9:26:00 GMT
alec . Hmm, I cannot imagine not closing curtains, I don't leave things on standby, I only boil the water I need for a hot drink, I batch cook, I use thermostatic controls on my radiators, have very short showers, use the washing machine only when it is full, light only the room I am in, I have shutters and curtains on most of my windows, have fully insulated loft, walls over 1 metre thick, but am not allowed double glazing. I am waiting for listed building consent to instal a woodburner which should reduce the need for the central heating. Now where are my 20% savings coming from? mandolinist - just curious because I've just moved into a Grade 2 listed cottage which doesn't have insulation in the loft..do you have any recommendations?
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Post by wb61 on Aug 12, 2022 9:29:45 GMT
Yes, la Dietrich has a terrific set-to with Una Merkel! Marlene's rendition of 'You've Got That Look' is one of the sexiest numbers on film I reckon. Just a brilliant film. Not surprised Footlight Parade has proved elusive for you. I don't recall it ever appearing on terrestrial telly in the UK. I got it on Blu-ray from eBay from Spain. Apart from being B&W, and nearly 90 years old, it looks brand new. Stunning picture quality to set off two of Busby Berkeley's most creative numbers, 'Shanghai Lil' and 'By a Waterfall'. Cagney sings and dances, more than adequately, and finally falls into sassy Joan Blondell's welcoming arms at the end. Terrific entertainment. Another Cagney film I haven't seen for a long time is "Yankee Doodle Dandy" a biopic of the life of George M. Cohan. It too has plenty of singing and dancing and ends with the scene of Cohan being presented with the Congressional Gold Medal by FDR and doing an (unrehearsed) tap-dance down the steps. The military parade he joins at this point are singing "Over there", which Cohan himself wrote. My Favourite Cagney film, which preceded Yankee Doodle Dandy by a year and perhaps allowed Cagney to break out from his stereotype as a gangster to do Yankee Doodle Dandy was The Stawberry Blonde
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Post by wb61 on Aug 12, 2022 9:30:57 GMT
alec . Hmm, I cannot imagine not closing curtains, I don't leave things on standby, I only boil the water I need for a hot drink, I batch cook, I use thermostatic controls on my radiators, have very short showers, use the washing machine only when it is full, light only the room I am in, I have shutters and curtains on most of my windows, have fully insulated loft, walls over 1 metre thick, but am not allowed double glazing. I am waiting for listed building consent to instal a woodburner which should reduce the need for the central heating. Now where are my 20% savings coming from? mandolinist - just curious because I've just moved into a Grade 2 listed cottage which doesn't have insulation in the loft..do you have any recommendations? The Sheep Fleece price is supposed to be reasonable at present.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2022 9:36:48 GMT
Just in case. The definition of recession as two consecutive quarters' drop in GDP is an OECD definition, and some member states don't use it (most notably the US, where they use 11 different factors and the most important seems to be the non-farm employment). I don't think that the two Qs is useful for the UK. It was heading to recession in 2019 (drop in economic activity in interlinked (supplier-customer) sectors (including foreign trade links), due to the drop in return on investment, but the Covid (and government intervention) postponed it. If I have the time, I will later elaborate on the recession and its likely nature in the near future. Hope you do find the time Laszlo.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2022 9:37:33 GMT
alec . Hmm, I cannot imagine not closing curtains, I don't leave things on standby, I only boil the water I need for a hot drink, I batch cook, I use thermostatic controls on my radiators, have very short showers, use the washing machine only when it is full, light only the room I am in, I have shutters and curtains on most of my windows, have fully insulated loft, walls over 1 metre thick, but am not allowed double glazing. I am waiting for listed building consent to instal a woodburner which should reduce the need for the central heating. Now where are my 20% savings coming from? mandolinist - just curious because I've just moved into a Grade 2 listed cottage which doesn't have insulation in the loft..do you have any recommendations? Move out.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2022 9:41:37 GMT
steveI came up with a sort of cartoon/story title some time ago (sadly no stories) with “Gullible’s Travels”. Being shown around Redcar to see the leaning tower of Pisa and so on. Maybe you could combine that idea with your rather nice title of “The Deluded Bard of Bangor” ?
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Post by moby on Aug 12, 2022 9:42:35 GMT
jib Actually I've never found it necessary to check Twitter but I'm sure there's some forgotten corner of it where people still believe the brexitanian bill shit. Meanwhile as we are a some times polling site here's some polling. The question should be "Should the UK join the EU". We'd better ask the EU too. The divorced party has also moved on. No, there isn't going to be a rejoin referendum soon. The sooner you realise that leaving the EU was a generational decision that's for the long term (i.e. your lifetime), the sooner you can rationalise life. That's never going to happen for me I'm afraid. 'Hate' is not too strong a word for how I feel about brexit and it's consequences.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2022 9:45:48 GMT
Extraordinary . "The Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) said there were 1.85 million job adverts in the last week of July, with up to 200,000 being added every week in the past month." Bloomberg Indeed, there is a huge shortage of labour. My two examples are perhaps not representative, but still. I have been to a business networking event about 10 days ago. It was mainly medium sized companies (so about 200-300 employees) in the broad sense (!) of manufacturing sector in the NW. They all complained about shortages (OK, not only labour), and that they couldn't service their potential market. There were some who shared their positive experience with other businesses, and one thing seemed to be taken up by quite a few of those present. They were offering accredited apprenticeship (fully paid) for all new recruits (it was mainly about the use of digitalisation and new technology in mnufacturing). They emphasized that it may mean that they would lose them once they had the certificate, but in the meantime they have almost enough labour, and that it was a strategic issue). The other one was a networking event for professional services companies (NW and parts of Yorkshire) this week. They said that they were OK in the South in terms of recruitment (also that freelance labour was more accepted there), but had a major issue in the North. They invited career services from universities (including those that became universities in 1992), and there was a kind of consensus that instead of using Tier 2 student visas (2 years employment after graduation), they would offer the wage to international graduates that enable them to have a working visa. Again labour turnover was a concern, but buying time was more important for many companies present. Thanks. Superficially, and conventionally this would be a "good thing". But this analysis puts it in a different light :- reaction.life/half-a-million-uk-workers-have-gone-missing-job-workers-labour-market/The more one reads stuff these days, the more one begins to feel that economic and geo-political plates are moving and we are entering a New World in many ways.
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Aug 12, 2022 9:48:49 GMT
alec"What I would say though is that the figures on energy bills are only focusing on price changes, not the behavioural changes these will inevitably bring. The aerage household wastes an incredible amount of energy. I could save almost anyone 20% of their energy bills just by some simple measures. "On top of that, people with cash will start spending on efficiency improvements (evidence that this is already happening) which will pump a little back into the economy. "So there will be substantial behavioural adjustments that will slice a lot of this £40bn off, but it will still be hard." We have already taken every step we can to reduce energy consumption, short of investing money we do not have to make long term improvements which will pay for themselves later. That is a luxury I wish we could afford. I edited your top tip for brevity. I know you mean well, but you might as well suggest closing windows in winter months or not heating your patio when nobody is out there using it for those of us who already turn off everything on standby. I note your reference to those with cash. My concern is for those without. As I said, we probably sit around the thirty percent mark in terms of household income and I believe we might just be able to get through the winter. Several of my friends won't. As much as I want brexit-leaning pensioners and struggling northerners to get such a shock they will reject the Tories for the rest of time, I don't wish them dead to achieve it. Truss appears not to feel the same way.
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Post by moby on Aug 12, 2022 9:51:55 GMT
mandolinist - just curious because I've just moved into a Grade 2 listed cottage which doesn't have insulation in the loft..do you have any recommendations? Move out. Mate I'm already living like the unabomber. I have a vegetable patch, a wood nearby for fuel and an axe. I'm now digging a deep hole next to the cottage for when the Russians come and guess what... I didn't ask for planning permission.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 12, 2022 9:53:12 GMT
If it's starting to look like a safe assumption now that Truss will be our next Prime Minister, then further thought needs to apply to who and what, as a country, we may soon be getting. I've been reading some profiles on her and while it's always difficult to navigate between hagiographies and hatchet jobs, a clear picture seems to emerge of a fiercely driven and ambitious woman with principles that can be easily traded in return for political popularity.
Not an unintelligent woman, clearly, but someone stubborn to the point of wilful obstinacy and, it appears, also lacking in empathy and emotional intelligence. Worryingly, I'm haunted by the thought of a politician who combines the worst features of Thatcher and May. With a little bit of Heath thrown in too, possibly.
But what strikes me, yet again, is the lack of any real life or career outside of politics and academia. At least Sunak worked in the City for a bit, although what sort of apprenticeship for real life that background provides, I'm not sure. Being good at maths and financial markets, I suppose. Handling personal fortunes and investing them wisely too.
Truss's career path follows a pattern in contemporary politics. Blair and Brown had careers of sorts but immersed themselves in politics from an early age, Cameron was a PR man and SPAD, May was a Tory activist from the age of 10 and Johnson dabbled in journalism. Truss seems to have glided seamlessly from academia to politics.
Which brings me to the question of what do politicians know of life who only politics and academia know? I keep being reminded of the gifted people lost to politics these days. Gifted in other ways beyond a list of academic qualifications. Every time I listen to Mick Lynch, for example, I keep thinking how sorely these sort of people are missed. He demolishes media luminaries because they can't grasp the life he has lived and the unmatchable wisdom that he has acquired from it. He is almost impossibly articulate and utterly expert in his field. Humour, insight, empathy and wisdom.
Of course he isn't all knowing, and possibly possesses some political views I may disagree with, but to spend five minutes listening to him is to appreciate, wistfully, what yawning gaps and holes exist in our shrivelled political discourse and political life
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Post by moby on Aug 12, 2022 9:59:14 GMT
As much as I want brexit-leaning pensioners and struggling northerners to get such a shock they will reject the Tories for the rest of time, I don't wish them dead to achieve it. Truss appears not to feel the same way. My neighbour farmer 'friend' voted brexit, (obviously). He came round with a cabbage for me the other day and said how shite the Govmt was. I said yes the leadership campaign was highlighting the lack of ideas to deal with some existential issues we were all facing.....he said I dunno what you're on about there but that Mark Drakeford needs shooting for suggesting farmers should put aside some of their land for trees and hedging.
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Post by alec on Aug 12, 2022 10:21:33 GMT
mandolinist - exception prove the rules, as they say, but your points are appreciated. Perhaps I exaggerate, but on the plus side, there will be a couple of homes that could save 30% to make up for your existing efficiency, I'm sure. I think johntel has already suggested jumpers and turning down the thermostat. This may not be appropriate for you, but it is a fact of life that the average home temperature in winter in the UK has risen over the last 50 years from around 18C to 21C. That costs a huge amount of money and carbon, and isn't really necessary.
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Post by alec on Aug 12, 2022 10:23:04 GMT
colin - "Another air base "accident". Belarus this time :-" I think Ukraine are working to eliminate Russia air threats, to enable them to advance on the ground under better cover. One by one the legs of the bear are being taken away.
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Post by JohnC on Aug 12, 2022 10:23:47 GMT
@danny - "I did that years ago. I concluded the monitoring programmes for illness are very specifically designed to search for certain specific illnesses but ignore others." I don't believe you. No reasonable person could make such a claim if they had actually studied the wide range of ILI monitoring programmes used in the UK in 2019 and since. They cover all ILI's, including the unidenitified ones, and the fact that you make such a claim demonstrates that you are either stupid or a wilful liar. "And having looked into exactly what the disease monitoring services do, they have several different methods but essentially all would have missed a small number of serious cases in a restricted area like the urban region of Hastings and bexhill." Again, just completely, totally wrong. You have no idea what you are talking about. However much one might find Danny's contributions annoying (I skip over a lot of them) is calling someone 'either stupid or a wilful liar' acceptable on this site?
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 12, 2022 10:28:42 GMT
colin
Don't we have to factor in the nature of current employment now, certainly if we want to look at employment figures as a gauge of an economy's health. To what extent, for example, are these vacancies desirable positions to hold in terms of conditions, security and rates of pay? They may well only serve as short stop gaps and supplementary sources of income. And are they necessarily vacancies produced by a healthy economy? In other words are they catering for a surge in consumer demand and spending or, mainly, a symptom of chronic and structural labour shortages in service industries that have existed for some time.
Work exists, self evidently, but is much of it the sort that liberates people and makes their lives better?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2022 10:34:18 GMT
colin - "Another air base "accident". Belarus this time :-" I think Ukraine are working to eliminate Russia air threats, to enable them to advance on the ground under better cover. One by one the legs of the bear are being taken away. It certainly looks as though they are not unconnected. Kharkiv has been mercilessly shelled so I guess that was a factor up there. It very much remains to be seen how / if Zelensky can achieve his new ambition-all the occupied territories.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 12, 2022 10:40:19 GMT
the thought of a politician who combines the worst features of Thatcher and May. With a little bit of Heath thrown in too, possibly. oh god oh god oh god…
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Post by alec on Aug 12, 2022 10:50:25 GMT
thexterminatingdalek mandolinist and others - apologies if I sounded too glib about energy savings. I appreciate that many are really going to struggle with this, and that some have made all the savings they reasonably can. There is a huge issue with poor efficiency in general, but as ever, we need to be careful extrapolating from the general to make grand statements about individual circumstances.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2022 10:57:06 GMT
colin Don't we have to factor in the nature of current employment now, certainly if we want to look at employment figures as a gauge of an economy's health. To what extent, for example, are these vacancies desirable positions to hold in terms of conditions, security and rates of pay? They may well only serve as short stop gaps and supplementary sources of income. And are they necessarily vacancies produced by a healthy economy? In other words are they catering for a surge in consumer demand and spending or, mainly, a symptom of chronic and structural labour shortages in service industries that have existed for some time. Work exists, self evidently, but is much of it the sort that liberates people and makes their lives better? Yes I think a widespread skills gap was recorded before the pandemic. There is now a well recorded post pandemic labour shortage-in many countries. It is creating both sectoral and skills gaps. You can do your own searches on this -its not difficult to see. It begins to look structural too :- www.randstad.com/workforce-insights/talent-acquisition/why-there-a-global-labor-shortage/www.kornferry.com/insights/this-week-in-leadership/talent-crunch-future-of-work
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Post by somerjohn on Aug 12, 2022 11:49:53 GMT
Alec: "apologies if I sounded too glib about energy savings. I appreciate that many are really going to struggle with this, and that some have made all the savings they reasonably can."
It can be difficult to discuss measures that others might take without sounding glib. I think that's because it's quite difficult for those of us who are more fortunate to truly grasp just how constrained is the freedom of action of those with few or no resources. We see that in those who imagine benefit recipients are scroungers and loungers who are too idle to lift a finger to help themselves.
So I'm very aware that my next suggestion is open to mockery as insensitive, out-of-touch and typical "let them eat cake" middle class do-goodery. Nevertheless...
If, as expected, the cost of keeping a British home warm next winter becomes beyond the reach of many, there will be some newly hard-up retirees for whom a winter migration to somewhere with a warmer climate and lower living expenses becomes a cost-effective option. That is the basis of the US 'snowbird' phenomenon, where thousands (millions?) of mostly non-wealthy folk move from the frostbitten north to the balmy south every winter.
Brexit has made that harder for Brits looking to Spain, Portugal or Greece, of course, thanks to uncertain health provision, the 90 day limit and the reduction of rights and privileges. Harder, but not impossible. And for the more intrepid, even cheaper and warmer places beckon (Morocco? Gambia? Ghana?)
But if household energy costs in Britain reach £500 per month in the Dec-Feb quarter, when I'm guessing half the year's household energy is typically used, that provides a quite substantial chunk to wholly or partly offset the costs of temporary migration. If it works for the birds...
Perhaps it's time for a brexit-era tweak to a well-known daytime TV meme. Time for "A Refuge in the Sun"?
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