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Post by Mark on Aug 12, 2022 6:45:57 GMT
Can somebody cleverer than me explain how allowing fuel bills to quadruple by January won't suck sufficient disposable income from the circulation to lead to mass unemployment and breaking the economy? This is exactly what will happen - and is already happening...and we've only had a fraction of the forthcoming price rises as yet. Many in retail are already reporting that sales are tanking, less so as yet in hospitality. Despite the media coverage there are plenty of people who are not rich by any standard, but, up until now, surviving reasonably well who are unaware of just how bad the near future will be. It's going to come as a shock. As things stand, the economy is going to tank utterly. It's simple maths. Why this isn't eing shouted from the rooftops is beyond me.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2022 6:52:17 GMT
@danny - try not to fixate on numbers, which you are then using to draw unreasonable and illogical conclusions from. seriously? I know this website doesnt have nearly as much actual polling input as the original, but you think we should concentrate less on numbers? I did that years ago. I concluded the monitoring programmes for illness are very specifically designed to search for certain specific illnesses but ignore others. They have built in thresholds where small outbreaks of anything are simply ignored. I guess thats because otherwise they would eternally be calling false alarms. I seem to remember annual deaths from unidentified pneumonias used to run at about 10,000 a year. So a few hundred dying from covid would be a drop in that ocean of unidentified pneumonias...before there were any specific tests for covid. The point is, covid-like disease isnt unusual, as you yourself were just saying. The difference now which was not true in 2019 and early 2020 is that we are now looking specifically for covid. Firstly with specific tests, but also because we now understand the correct symptoms for covid, in particular loss of taste and smell which is the signature symptom when it occurs (was initially i think in around 70% of cases reported to zoe). What was it initially? look out for cough and temperature? Symptoms totally non specific for covid! Covid is now specifically notifiable, whereas unidentified pneumonia was not. Its funny how its much easier to find something if you are looking. The disease monitoring services added covid to their list of reportable diseases, and of course regulations over death certificates were changed ordering doctors to mention even a suspicion of covid which was refuted by a negative test. So where they say 'any mention of covid on the death certificate', that now includes mentions that the patient didnt have covid! (I guess because tests are unreliable, and they wanted to know if doctors suspected it even if test were negative) Do you mean the research studying stored blood, which proved many people had a significant antibody reaction against covid back in 2019? The problem with pathological samples from sick people is they really arent stored for very long after someone is ill and either recovered or didnt. There was a case in Paris where samples from a mystery illness in about december 2019 had been preserved to spring 2020, but at the time this was reported as exceptional and just luck. Well i did go into all this in 2020, when someone on here started arguing on the lines you are suggesting. Maybe it was you then too, I dont recall. And having looked into exactly what the disease monitoring services do, they have several different methods but essentially all would have missed a small number of serious cases in a restricted area like the urban region of Hastings and bexhill. Sussex is mostly open countryside, so the towns are like raisins in cake- a disease cannot grow continuously by sideways spread in the way it can in big citie,s until it reaches sufficient numbers to trigger alarm. What we proved was it died out in hastings before the numbers of serious cases reached the threshold for triggering an alarm. We proved it was always a self limiting minor disease for most people. Only specific groups were ever at serious risk. In fact what actually happened in the Uk was pretty much what the service was designed to detect. Covid was not identified until serious case numbers passed this minimum number of unidentified deaths. Couldnt happen in small towns because not enough serious cases. Been the same in most countries at the start of the epidemic, it established months before it was detected. In italy, you may recall there was a lot of alarm about deaths in care homes and hospitals as the very first news about covid we got. And yet it has now been proved from sewer samples retrospectively tested for covid, that the disease was in the big northern cities months before there was an alarm called by hospitals. This is all wrapped up into the fact young people spread covid and have most cases, but only the weak old get seriously ill. The old automatically self isolate because of their lifestyles, which dont include close and intimate contact with lots of new people every day. left to itself, the disease moves fast through the safe transmitters and then must die out having missed completely many of the high risk.
What we proved is that hospitals and care homes are uniquely dangerous places where many covid deaths originated. Because people susceptible to severe covid were gathered together where they would infect each other.
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Post by jib on Aug 12, 2022 6:56:25 GMT
I was just wondering... it seems to be acceptable for a certain member on here to repeatedly use the insult "remainiac". Is this really OK? I'm just thinking, because if it is, then it must be OK to use similarly creative insults against thick people who are obviously living in a world of self-denial. Asking for a friend... (BTW, you ever use that to my face in real life, then you are out of the game. You get my drift sunshine?) I reserve the affectionate term sunshine for my mate Crofty. The lad Steve needs frequent corrections and help and I'm glad I can assist him too. "Remainiac": someone obsessively bitter with the outcome of a referendum fought 6 years ago and still trying to conflate every bit of bad economic news with Brexit. It's not in the least offensive. Nevertheless, if you don't like my views....tough. They're my own. This isn't an echo chamber.
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Post by moby on Aug 12, 2022 7:01:37 GMT
It might be thought unkind, on this site, to observe that "Hastings" was the name selected by Christie for the plot device of Poirot's affable, but unobservant, friend, who constantly misunderstood the bits of evidence in a case, and drew precisely the wrong conclusions.
Unkind - so I won't make that observation. However, I do wonder if alec is immensely proud of his moustache. This would seem to indicate that you read the exchanges. If alec can be proud of his moustache you must have the patience of a saint.
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Post by mandolinist on Aug 12, 2022 7:06:07 GMT
alec. Hmm, I cannot imagine not closing curtains, I don't leave things on standby, I only boil the water I need for a hot drink, I batch cook, I use thermostatic controls on my radiators, have very short showers, use the washing machine only when it is full, light only the room I am in, I have shutters and curtains on most of my windows, have fully insulated loft, walls over 1 metre thick, but am not allowed double glazing. I am waiting for listed building consent to instal a woodburner which should reduce the need for the central heating. Now where are my 20% savings coming from?
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Post by moby on Aug 12, 2022 7:06:54 GMT
@danny
"Conservative Thatcher administration privatised water with a promise the new companies would end water leaks and ensure there was not a repeat of the 76 hot summer water shortages. Since then we had a decent length of labour government too. Privatisation has failed to deliver, and neither party is acknowledging that."
It privatised the monopoly of water and sewerage provision in England and Wales only - and (though I don't know how the Welsh contract was awarded, Welsh Water is run by a not-for-profit company).
Not only has "Privatisation failed to deliver" it has made matters much worse for those water consumers (and sewage producers) in England.
Both SCon and SLD campaigned to privatise Scottish Water too, but neither SNP or SLab (the dominant parties at the time) agreed with that daft idea. Which raises the question as to why English Labour did nothing about the scandal, while the huge debts created by the English water companies were considerably less than they are now. Yes and something like one in five litres are currently lost to leaks; whereas Denmark currently has its leakage levels down to 7%.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2022 7:07:40 GMT
Can somebody cleverer than me explain how allowing fuel bills to quadruple by January won't suck sufficient disposable income from the circulation to lead to mass unemployment and breaking the economy? This is exactly what will happen - and is already happening...and we've only had a fraction of the forthcoming price rises as yet. Many in retail are already reporting that sales are tanking, less so as yet in hospitality. Despite the media coverage there are plenty of people who are not rich by any standard, but, up until now, surviving reasonably well who are unaware of just how bad the near future will be. It's going to come as a shock. As things stand, the economy is going to tank utterly. It's simple maths. Why this isn't eing shouted from the rooftops is beyond me. News this morning reporting the economy shrank 0.1% april to june. The interviewee reported the effect was strongest in the last month, and was making some sort of argument this was due to an extra bank holiday that month transferred from May. Or alternatively it could be argued there was a growing awarness of energy bills shooting up after the cap was raised and new bills arrived.
Also said part of the hit was due to lower activity in the medical sector - no testing for covid. The report said bank of England had anticipated negative growth, but not until the end of this year. Not encouraging it has arrived earlier. Consistently official predictions on inflation and the economy have all been excessively optimistic since Brexit/covid. Rememebr how inflation would only be low single digit blip?
Why isnt this being shouted? I guess because to make clear to the public what is happening would be to encourage them to stop spending even more and so worsen the effect now. That might reinforce the cycle of wage demands, etc, but it would particularly harm the prospects of the government and its USP record of economic success.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2022 7:14:12 GMT
There is no slack. We read articles about saving money and most sound profligate compared to our existing frugal lifestyle. But thats true for almost everyone. Housing in the UK is incredibly expensive because of government policy pushing up the price. Everyone spends as much as they can on housing. Partly because we are typically forced into accommodation we regard as too small because of price (except pensioners, who bought historically cheap homes and now their kids have left). Partly because it is regarded as the best investment available to ordinary people, with big tax breaks. I can. its only two years to the next election. Chances are we can still stretch the national credit card a couple of years. No. And this quarters unexpectedly bad gdp figures suggest its already arrived.
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Post by pete on Aug 12, 2022 7:16:05 GMT
The foreign secretary also pledged to “reform the BBC licence fee and I certainly think it is completely wrong that so many women are in jail for non-payment of it.” This is not the first time Liz Truss has said this. THIS IS FROM FULL FACT WEBSITE "You cannot be sent to prison for failing to pay a TV licence fee, only for failing to pay a fine in connection with a conviction for not paying the fee—and the latest available figures for England and Wales show no one was jailed for this in 2020 or 2021. Women are more likely than men to be convicted of not paying the fee, but the number of men jailed since 1995 after failing to pay fines is twice the number of women. How can these politicians just keep getting away with all this fact free rubbish? Simple answer, look at our press.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2022 7:19:03 GMT
alec Around 10,000 die in the UK from hypothermia each year caused effectively by living in a cold house, overwhelmingly these are the elderly often living on state pension. They benefit not a penny from cuts in nic even if they have sufficient income to be above the nic threshold they are exempt by age. Similarly cosplay Maggie plan to cut green levies would reduce a likely increase of around 200% since last winter by just 10%. If nothing is done now the death rate already pro rata amongst the highest in the western world is going to increase heaven knows how much. The energy companies and the regime will be directly responsible for these unnecessary deaths.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2022 7:22:15 GMT
pete Indeed our client media are utterly unwilling to call out the lies of politicians. This may not be partisan but as Tories and other iterations of right wing nationalists lie with far greater frequency than progressive party representatives the effect is the same.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2022 7:39:55 GMT
jib Bless where would be without the deluded bard of Bangor. Still firmly ensconced in the third stage of brexitanian bregret where you are still trying to convince yourself that everything you say and think about Brexit wasn't utter bollocks.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2022 7:42:39 GMT
Hard as it may sound, if and when Russia is militarily defeated, we will probably need to work to resurrect the German idea of rapprochement through trade - something that worked brilliantly with Germany itself and Japan post WW2, but is seen as a failure post Soviet bloc with Russia. I don't think we have a choice in this. Germany's mistake wasn't to attempt this policy, but instead to fail to recognise when it had stopped working. Russia's main export is fuel. how do we establish friendly trade relations without creating a dependence on Russia for our energy? The economic implications of diverting huge revenues from everyone else to energy companies while an administration twiddle its thumbs and asks them to be nice with their huge additional wealth doesn't just have massive real world consequences it's a political suicide note of epic proportions. Trouble is, con are already on a track to lose the next election. That has to be the expectation based on circumstances now. It isnt clear there is anything they can do to change that, expectations are the situation as experienced by citizens will worsen over the next two years. So whether the government twiddles its thumbs and applies policies popular for its remaining voters, wont make any difference to their chances of re election. no reason for them to even try to solve the problem. Arguably better to leave labour with an unmanageable disaster for the next 5 years so they fail too. So there will be substantial behavioural adjustments that will slice a lot of this £40bn off, but it will still be hard. On the other hand, rising interest rates mean a steady increase in expenditure on mortgages, which could become a flood if the rises continue up to when fixed term deals start running out. Frequently this is the biggest cost for people. Food prices have shot up in the last year. Things like internet and netflix seem set to go up, which are increasingly essential rather than luxuries. I got a slight suggestion building supplies may have stabilised a bit, perhaps indicating some recovery of supplies post covid disruption plus falling demand. Yes and something like one in five litres are currently lost to leaks; whereas Denmark currently has its leakage levels down to 7%. Pundit on News argued leaks have been cut significantly, sounded like by about 40%. However also said in recent years there has been little progress in this respect, so sounded like the pressure has been taken off to improve. Although cutting leaks by less than half in 40 years might not be considered very good even taken overall.
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Post by jib on Aug 12, 2022 7:53:56 GMT
jib Bless where would be without the deluded bard of Bangor. Still firmly ensconced in the third stage of brexitanian bregret where you are still trying to convince yourself that everything you say and think about Brexit wasn't utter bollocks. It must be a frustrating life trawling Twitter for increasingly scant morsels of negative news you can try and blame on Brexit. I'm not stopping you, but you need more evidence than a few cartoons.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 12, 2022 8:01:06 GMT
It must be a frustrating life trawling Twitter for increasingly scant morsels of negative news you can try and blame on Brexit. NHS starting to collapse for lack of immigrant labour. The purpose of the false claims on the big red bus about savings from leaving the Eu was to persuade people that there would be no financial cost to brexit. This worked, at least enough. 85% of leavers believed there would be no loss. While an even higher pecerntage of remainers believed there would. It was the critical message in the debate. After that, confident they would not be out of pocket they could choose for other reasons how to vote. So many voted to cut immigration. And we see the results, no staff for the NHS. How is this playing amongst pensioners, who use the NHS most? Do they yet understand they voted for something which will kill them off quicker?
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2022 8:08:37 GMT
jib It must be frustrating being constantly on the opposite side from reality for the last six years, but I'm sure that won't stop you.
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johntel
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Post by johntel on Aug 12, 2022 8:09:11 GMT
alec . Hmm, I cannot imagine not closing curtains, I don't leave things on standby, I only boil the water I need for a hot drink, I batch cook, I use thermostatic controls on my radiators, have very short showers, use the washing machine only when it is full, light only the room I am in, I have shutters and curtains on most of my windows, have fully insulated loft, walls over 1 metre thick, but am not allowed double glazing. I am waiting for listed building consent to instal a woodburner which should reduce the need for the central heating. Now where are my 20% savings coming from? You could turn the thermostat down and wear an extra layer of clothes? That's by far the most effective way of saving energy.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2022 8:12:57 GMT
alec . Hmm, I cannot imagine not closing curtains, I don't leave things on standby, I only boil the water I need for a hot drink, I batch cook, I use thermostatic controls on my radiators, have very short showers, use the washing machine only when it is full, light only the room I am in, I have shutters and curtains on most of my windows, have fully insulated loft, walls over 1 metre thick, but am not allowed double glazing. I am waiting for listed building consent to instal a woodburner which should reduce the need for the central heating. Now where are my 20% savings coming from? You could turn the thermostat down and wear an extra layer of clothes? That's by far the most effective way of saving energy. More likely to have fans on currently
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2022 8:18:51 GMT
jib Actually I've never found it necessary to check Twitter but I'm sure there's some forgotten corner of it where people still believe the brexitanian bill shit. Meanwhile as we are a some times polling site here's some polling.
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Post by laszlo4new on Aug 12, 2022 8:24:21 GMT
Can I point out that according to the law of physics it is not the warm air that goes out, but the cold air comes in (and hence the warm air has to make room).
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Post by somerjohn on Aug 12, 2022 8:24:54 GMT
JiB: "increasingly scant morsels of negative news you can try and blame on Brexit."
They are not scant, they are not morsels, and there is no need to 'try' to blame them on brexit.
Try this one for size.
Last week, Rees-Mogg admitted that an extra 91,000 civil servants had been needed since 2016, at a direct cost of "at least £3.5bn per year." to that, of course, has to be added the opportunity cost of all the more productive work all those people could otherwise be doing.
A little bit of mendacious calculation and that could come out at a 'rounded up' £350 million a week. How might that figure be got across to the more impressionable parts of the electorate? I know, we could put it on the side of a bus and say it could have been spent on the NHS.
In the meantime, perhaps you'd like to have a go at proving "at least £3.5bn a year" is a scant morsel? Or that it isn't really a consequence of brexit, just something that remainers "try to blame" it on?
There are plenty more examples where that one came from. But, oddly, those who claim there isn't evidence of brexit harm seem strangely reluctant to engage with the contrary evidence when it's presented to them. Don't bother me with the facts, I'm a brexit believer, eh?
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johntel
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Post by johntel on Aug 12, 2022 8:24:54 GMT
What I would say though is that the figures on energy bills are only focusing on price changes, not the behavioural changes these will inevitably bring. The aerage household wastes an incredible amount of energy. I could save almost anyone 20% of their energy bills just by some simple measures. [Alec's Top Tip - why do so many people love sitting at home at night with the curtains open? No provacy, and it increases your heating bill by around a quarter, even with good double glazing. Daft people.] On top of that, people with cash will start spending on efficiency improvements (evidence that this is already happening) which will pump a little back into the economy. So there will be substantial behavioural adjustments that will slice a lot of this £40bn off, but it will still be hard. You could make the argument that the current energy crisis is forcing people to implement energy saving improvements earlier than they would have done otherwise and is therefore a good thing. On the other hand it'll make it harder to get people to fork out for expensive heat exchangers etc and a likely cut in green levies will mean less money for subsidising green energy. Of course thats disregarding the effect on people in poverty. But I'm pretty sure La Truss will be forced to do a U-turn on that as soon as she's been anointed.
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Post by shevii on Aug 12, 2022 8:26:01 GMT
Britain Elects @britainelects · 47m Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 39% (-) CON: 35% (+1) LDEM: 12% (-1) GRN: 5% (-)
via @techneuk , 10 - 11 Aug
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johntel
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Post by johntel on Aug 12, 2022 8:27:47 GMT
You could turn the thermostat down and wear an extra layer of clothes? That's by far the most effective way of saving energy. More likely to have fans on currently Switch the fan off and strip to your undies?
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2022 8:35:41 GMT
johntel I tried that but they said I needed to leave the custody suite.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 12, 2022 8:37:28 GMT
jib Actually I've never found it necessary to check Twitter but I'm sure there's some forgotten corner of it where people still believe the brexitanian bill shit. Meanwhile as we are a some times polling site here's some polling. Yes, the price of Brexit has been punishingly high. The term bill shit is very apt. It could describe the current cost of living crisis too.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2022 8:44:11 GMT
Can I point out that according to the law of physics it is not the warm air that goes out, but the cold air comes in (and hence the warm air has to make room). There isn't any cold air outside my house.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2022 8:51:08 GMT
Extraordinary .
"The Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) said there were 1.85 million job adverts in the last week of July, with up to 200,000 being added every week in the past month."
Bloomberg
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 12, 2022 8:55:13 GMT
More likely to have fans on currently Switch the fan off and strip to your undies? Not something I thought I'd ever read on this forum, although I'm glad it was a question and not a request.
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 12, 2022 8:58:50 GMT
Destry wonderful n has the best saloon brawl. Between two women; the town bad girl, Marlene, n good girl. Stewart ends up marrying good g but being wistful about Marlene. Who would not shed a tear when Dietrich is killed saving the town, when the women revolt against male violence. Cannot get hold of footlight parade. Yes, la Dietrich has a terrific set-to with Una Merkel! Marlene's rendition of 'You've Got That Look' is one of the sexiest numbers on film I reckon. Just a brilliant film. Not surprised Footlight Parade has proved elusive for you. I don't recall it ever appearing on terrestrial telly in the UK. I got it on Blu-ray from eBay from Spain. Apart from being B&W, and nearly 90 years old, it looks brand new. Stunning picture quality to set off two of Busby Berkeley's most creative numbers, 'Shanghai Lil' and 'By a Waterfall'. Cagney sings and dances, more than adequately, and finally falls into sassy Joan Blondell's welcoming arms at the end. Terrific entertainment. Another Cagney film I haven't seen for a long time is "Yankee Doodle Dandy" a biopic of the life of George M. Cohan. It too has plenty of singing and dancing and ends with the scene of Cohan being presented with the Congressional Gold Medal by FDR and doing an (unrehearsed) tap-dance down the steps. The military parade he joins at this point are singing "Over there", which Cohan himself wrote.
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