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Post by RAF on Aug 11, 2022 21:17:20 GMT
If prices keep rising eventually people won't pay, because they can't pay. Economic theory only takes you so far. Ultimately, politics is about people; and every government wants to stay in power. There are, of course, many ways for a government to stay in power.
Johnson said in 2019 that it was a "once in a generation election" - and they have openly declared their belief that such statements are to be taken literally.
Also, the severe crises that have to be grappled with means that "now" (whenever it is) "is not the time for a divisive" election.
A simple change in the legislative requirement for when a UK GE must be held (and there have been a number of such changes in the past) would allow "the country" to "come together" to "deal with the challenges that we must all face together".
I could write the speech demanding "British Unity" to reach the "sunlit uplands" - in fact I probably have written the core of it now.Well it didn't work for Boris. Less than three years after winning an 80 seat majority, he's been kicked to the kerb.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 11, 2022 21:17:45 GMT
People defending her on Twitter are saying she meant: "here in the UK, in Derbyshire". However, if so she should have said that. The purpose of language is communication. Frankly one might be relieved she got it confused with somewhere else in the UK and was at least somewhere in the ballpark. It could have been anywhere. Uzbekistan, Greenland, the Olympus Mons...
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 11, 2022 21:19:33 GMT
But what happens if you twist the straw and join both ends together? How many holes do you get then? You get an onion ring. Or a hula hoop.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 11, 2022 21:25:31 GMT
Well it didn't work for Boris. Less than three years after winning an 80 seat majority, he's been kicked to the kerb. The individual isn't important - only the state. "Our Precious Union" is the embodiment of the state, and elections divide the "hard working families" that make it up.
Plus, we have always been at war with Eurasia.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 11, 2022 21:34:35 GMT
Just running the tap again for all you folks down south - can you hear that? You didnt post where you live alec, so we can look up the government covid deaths figures for your location, and compare them to Hastings to see whether your area had a spring 2020 spike of deaths when hastings did not.
You didnt respond to the graphs I posted showing the absence of a spike of deaths in hastings spring 2020, when most of the rest of the nation had covid. You must realise the most likely explanation how hastings failed to catch covid at this time is because it was already over covid, during the winter before. Which of course implies the entire nation could have recovered from that wave of covid without the need for lockdown.
Lockdown was called as cases rose and there was a fear of NHS overload, but in reality the evidence from the resumption of cases after schools reopened is that the wave in the south was already largely over. The evidence from Hastings is that it would have quickly peaked without any mass wave of deaths greater than what happened anyway.
Its appalling that this is not understood by the nation, that all that lockdown was for nothing. The recession brewing now was deliberately created by the policy of lockdown, but it didnt save anyone.
i wonder why politically committed posters are resisting what would become catastrophic news for both main political parties if it is realised what they did?
And if it comes to it, Conservative Thatcher administration privatised water with a promise the new companies would end water leaks and ensure there was not a repeat of the 76 hot summer water shortages. Since then we had a decent length of labour government too. Privatisation has failed to deliver, and neither party is acknowledging that.
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Post by isa on Aug 11, 2022 21:37:49 GMT
Donlevy was certainly a very hissable baddie, particularly memorable in the wonderful tragi-comic musical western Destry Rides Again. Re Cagney, you obviously haven't seen Footlight Parade for a while . Destry wonderful n has the best saloon brawl. Between two women; the town bad girl, Marlene, n good girl. Stewart ends up marrying good g but being wistful about Marlene. Who would not shed a tear when Dietrich is killed saving the town, when the women revolt against male violence. Cannot get hold of footlight parade. Yes, la Dietrich has a terrific set-to with Una Merkel! Marlene's rendition of 'You've Got That Look' is one of the sexiest numbers on film I reckon. Just a brilliant film. Not surprised Footlight Parade has proved elusive for you. I don't recall it ever appearing on terrestrial telly in the UK. I got it on Blu-ray from eBay from Spain. Apart from being B&W, and nearly 90 years old, it looks brand new. Stunning picture quality to set off two of Busby Berkeley's most creative numbers, 'Shanghai Lil' and 'By a Waterfall'. Cagney sings and dances, more than adequately, and finally falls into sassy Joan Blondell's welcoming arms at the end. Terrific entertainment.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 11, 2022 21:49:12 GMT
It might be thought unkind, on this site, to observe that "Hastings" was the name selected by Christie for the plot device of Poirot's affable, but unobservant, friend, who constantly misunderstood the bits of evidence in a case, and drew precisely the wrong conclusions.
Unkind - so I won't make that observation. However, I do wonder if alec is immensely proud of his moustache.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 11, 2022 21:56:21 GMT
I seem to remember from 2008 that the big fear was rising interest rates would trigger a collapse of house prices, and the biggest wave of negative equity and therefore market collapse in UK property market history. It seems odd this doesnt get any mention now. While percentages of equity in the hands of owners may now be better than 2008, surely the fundamentals of the consequences of mortgages becoming unaffordable because of doubling or redoubling of mortgage interest rates are just the same. While simultaneously owners are seeing their disposable income shrinking like smoke as energy prices rise. The energy price rise alone could be enough to trigger a house price collapse, never mind taking away more consumer disposable income by increasing interest rates.
The most obvious expectation from all this surely is falling consumer spending on anything they can cut. So a recession. National wealth funneling into the hands of energy companies.
Fuel prices are shooting up because, 1) there is a shortfall of supply. 2) Consumers of said fuel are rich and willing to pay as much as it takes to ensure their personal supply in a bidding war. Until some drop out of that bidding war and so supply equals demand again, prices will rise. 3) The 'private sector' has no interest in stabilising prices, but rather makes greater and greater profits the longer it continues. So any sensible bargaining to cut demand by voluntary rationing aint happening. Has the UK unilaterally taken any measures to cut demand? or are we subsidising consumers so they dont have to cut usage? If prices keep rising eventually people won't pay, because they can't pay. Economic theory only takes you so far. Ultimately, politics is about people; and every government wants to stay in power.
So what are you saying? This is an example of the prisoners dilemma, whhere we must cooperate with others to optimise outcome, but political imperatives will prevent us from doing that?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 11, 2022 21:59:00 GMT
@danny
"Conservative Thatcher administration privatised water with a promise the new companies would end water leaks and ensure there was not a repeat of the 76 hot summer water shortages. Since then we had a decent length of labour government too. Privatisation has failed to deliver, and neither party is acknowledging that."
It privatised the monopoly of water and sewerage provision in England and Wales only - and (though I don't know how the Welsh contract was awarded, Welsh Water is run by a not-for-profit company).
Not only has "Privatisation failed to deliver" it has made matters much worse for those water consumers (and sewage producers) in England.
Both SCon and SLD campaigned to privatise Scottish Water too, but neither SNP or SLab (the dominant parties at the time) agreed with that daft idea. Which raises the question as to why English Labour did nothing about the scandal, while the huge debts created by the English water companies were considerably less than they are now.
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Post by mercian on Aug 11, 2022 22:02:59 GMT
Wow. What a busy day. I suppose you must all be indoors sheltering from the heat. Anyway, apologies for the long post, but I've prepared this off line to avoid multiple posts. There were quite a few witty comments in the last few pages, but it's too hot to bother liking them all. here goes: wb61 "when I read some of your comments they appear so extreme as to be almost parody, however you are consistent in pressing those views. What I read into them is that you have a very depressing view as to the honesty and decency of the bulk of your fellow human beings. Such misanthropic views must arise from somewhere but I am not sure from where. The only thing that I can think of is a sort of negative empathy. This is because I consider most people have standards close to mine, does your view arise from a belief that very few have your standards? Or is that those would be the standards you would uphold if you were in a similar position? Or is there some other reason you seem to think everybody is somehow "on the make"? I'm not sure what comments you're referring to as you didn't quote them, but I have to say that there are many comments on this board that I consider to be extreme (not yours). Possibly you are talking about my opinions on dole scroungers? I can assure you that these are not a myth. I am not closely acquainted but my children went to school with others whose parents had made a career choice to live on the dole while doing cash in hand jobs. I am sure that they are not the majority, and of course we do need a safety net for deserving cases, but the system seems to be open to abuse. -------------------------- crossbat11 "My cod psychological diagnosis is that Mercian perceives himself on occasions as the forum's lone and courageous centre right warrior. Under siege but still firing shots. " Brilliant! You could have been the next Freud. You're also right about the late night thing, but it's because I'm pissed less inhibited. ------------------------ @crofty "I like the warning that comes up saying “This film contains language.”" Perhaps it's for those who haven't got used to talkies yet? --------------------------- leftieliberal "It struck me that the best parts of Monty Python came in the second half of the of the first series and through the second series. The "argument" sketch was a high point of the third series." Yes, for all its iconic status and the well-remembered sketches, there was quite a lot of dross. I particularly liked the cheese shop sketch because I had a similar experience when I moved into a working class area. ------------------------- moby " Do you think UK citizens who work off the grid should have no right to benefits " - Yes "or do you think that UK citizens are a superior species" - Yes "who would never do something dishonest like working off grid?" - No --------------------------- nickp "By the way, I think Mercian has morphed into The Other Howard now. " I did agree with him over nearly everything and regret not making greater efforts to meet him.
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Post by RAF on Aug 11, 2022 22:10:25 GMT
If prices keep rising eventually people won't pay, because they can't pay. Economic theory only takes you so far. Ultimately, politics is about people; and every government wants to stay in power.
So what are you saying? This is an example of the prisoners dilemma, whhere we must cooperate with others to optimise outcome, but political imperatives will prevent us from doing that?
I'm simply saying that hundreds of thousands if not millions of people who can't afford escalating costs for gas and electricity will stop paying for the same and this will force the powers that be to find a more sensible solution for the regulation of the energy market. One option that hasn't been discussed fully is to take a more detailed look at how vertically integrated operators are leveraging their dominance in production/exploration/supply to smother new entrants in the retail market. Even if we took the cap away new entrants couldn't survive for long in what is an oligopoly. Perhaps we could adopt something similar to the essential facilities doctrine and apply it to the industry, forcing the big players to effectively lease out their network to new entrants on FRAND terms.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 11, 2022 22:22:58 GMT
RAF, allowing prices to rise until demand falls is exactly what is causing market dislocation -AKA bankruptcies, and public revolt. To prevent this what is needed is rationing of available fuel, supplied at pre crisis prices. Not something the market wants.
However the structure of the energy market in the Uk seems to make us especially vulnerable to what is happening now. Do we know which party created this system? (obviously con/Thatcher sold off cheaply state owned energy assets initially)
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Post by mercian on Aug 11, 2022 22:32:12 GMT
Danny Did you ever have to deal with British Gas before privatisation? There's a reason it was so popular. I could give a lengthy anecdote but will refrain unless asked. I am trying not to be offensive to British Gas fans. 😁
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 11, 2022 22:35:38 GMT
@danny Did you ever have to deal with British Gas before privatisation? There's a reason it was so popular. yes indeed. All the share sell offs shot up in value immediately after they were sold. because the market understood the huge profits to be made from a privately owned gas industry. And here we are.
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Post by mercian on Aug 11, 2022 22:39:56 GMT
The reason it was so popular was because British Gas behaved like a Nazi dictatorship. My gas and electric bills dropped immediately after privatisation and took years to get back to the same price.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 11, 2022 22:42:00 GMT
The reason it was so popular was because British Gas behaved like a Nazi dictatorship. My gas and electric bills dropped immediately after privatisation and took years to get back to the same price. I wonder if that was because the world fuel price dropped?
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 11, 2022 22:43:39 GMT
But what happens if you twist the straw and join both ends together? How many holes do you get then? Or you shorten it until, in the limit, it is simply a two-dimensional shape -- a circle perhaps (but it could have been squashed in the shortening process). :-)
How many holes has a circle?
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Post by jen on Aug 11, 2022 22:52:52 GMT
I was just wondering... it seems to be acceptable for a certain member on here to repeatedly use the insult "remainiac". Is this really OK? I'm just thinking, because if it is, then it must be OK to use similarly creative insults against thick people who are obviously living in a world of self-denial. Asking for a friend...
(BTW, you ever use that to my face in real life, then you are out of the game. You get my drift sunshine?)
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Post by mercian on Aug 11, 2022 22:57:48 GMT
Just running the tap again for all you folks down south - can you hear that?
Lockdown was called as cases rose and there was a fear of NHS overload, but in reality the evidence from the resumption of cases after schools reopened is that the wave in the south was already largely over. The evidence from Hastings is that it would have quickly peaked without any mass wave of deaths greater than what happened anyway.
Its appalling that this is not understood by the nation, that all that lockdown was for nothing. The recession brewing now was deliberately created by the policy of lockdown, but it didnt save anyone.
DannyYou've made your point. If anyone who matters reads this site, they've got the message. The rest of us are bored with it, whether we agree or not. It's over.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2022 23:01:20 GMT
I was just wondering... it seems to be acceptable for a certain member on here to repeatedly use the insult "remainiac". Is this really OK? I'm just thinking, because if it is, then it must be OK to use similarly creative insults against thick people who are obviously living in a world of self-denial. Asking for a friend... (BTW, you ever use that to my face in real life, then you are out of the game. You get my drift sunshine?) There are insufficient clues there for anyone to guess that you just might be talking about the ever popular jib. Anyway, your secret is safe with me pal.
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Post by mercian on Aug 11, 2022 23:01:34 GMT
I was just wondering... it seems to be acceptable for a certain member on here to repeatedly use the insult "remainiac". Is this really OK? I'm just thinking, because if it is, then it must be OK to use similarly creative insults against thick people who are obviously living in a world of self-denial. Asking for a friend... (BTW, you ever use that to my face in real life, then you are out of the game. You get my drift sunshine?)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2022 23:04:14 GMT
Lockdown was called as cases rose and there was a fear of NHS overload, but in reality the evidence from the resumption of cases after schools reopened is that the wave in the south was already largely over. The evidence from Hastings is that it would have quickly peaked without any mass wave of deaths greater than what happened anyway.
Its appalling that this is not understood by the nation, that all that lockdown was for nothing. The recession brewing now was deliberately created by the policy of lockdown, but it didnt save anyone.
Danny You've made your point. If anyone who matters reads this site, they've got the message. The rest of us are bored with it, whether we agree or not. It's over. I’m not bored with it. But that’s cos I haven’t read a Danny post for well over year. Haven’t read this one either but - obviously - just wanted to check what you had written in response to whatever he wrote.
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Post by mercian on Aug 11, 2022 23:07:14 GMT
Danny You've made your point. If anyone who matters reads this site, they've got the message. The rest of us are bored with it, whether we agree or not. It's over. I’m not bored with it. But that’s cos I haven’t read a Danny post for well over year. Haven’t read this one either but - obviously - just wanted to check what you had written in response to whatever he wrote. 👍 Nice one
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Post by joeboy on Aug 12, 2022 0:46:08 GMT
The reason it was so popular was because British Gas behaved like a Nazi dictatorship. My gas and electric bills dropped immediately after privatisation and took years to get back to the same price. How did British Gas behave like a 'Nazi dictatorship? Pleases inform us because I'm completely puzzled by that comment.
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Post by alec on Aug 12, 2022 6:07:52 GMT
@danny - try not to fixate on numbers, which you are then using to draw unreasonable and illogical conclusions from. Instead, spend some time educating yourself about the UK monitoring programmes, which include sentinel GP surgeries across the UK, and which have been bolstered very significantly by back testing of stored samples since March 2020, and once you've done that, you should start to understand why it isn't possible for there to have been a hidden covid outbreak in Hastings in 2019 that went undetected.
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Aug 12, 2022 6:29:42 GMT
Can somebody cleverer than me explain how allowing fuel bills to quadruple by January won't suck sufficient disposable income from the circulation to lead to mass unemployment and breaking the economy?
Our family, assuming nothing ever breaks or need replacing ever again, night just be able to get through the winter. In terms of income, we're probably at about the twenty five or thirty percent position.
There is no slack. We read articles about saving money and most sound profligate compared to our existing frugal lifestyle.
I can't envision any scenario where our leader in waiting isn't forced into the most screeching U-turn the moment they take delivery of the keys to number ten and the nuclear codes, which, hopefully, will wipe out any honeymoon and possibility of limping like Gordon Brown until the next election with no prospect of salvation.
Is this just a failure of imagination on my part, or is there a way to remove £300 a month from every household budget while maintaining the livelihoods of everyone employed in hospitality, nonessential retail and everyone whose livelihoods depend on people like me having a couple of hundred left at the end of the month to spend on nice things?
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Post by alec on Aug 12, 2022 6:31:33 GMT
Hard to know the significance of this, but it is interesting -
Meanwhile, yesterday Uzbekistan's government openly criticised the Kremlin, advising it's citizens to refuse efforts to conscript them into the war. This follows the pattern of other former Soviet republics either declining to support Russia or openly criticising the invasion. In the case of Kazahkstan, this has involved efforts to bypass Russia for oil and gas exports to Europe, as well as efforts to reconfigure their defences to meet a possible Russian threat.
More evidence of the catastrophic strategic blunder Putin has made. This may not, however, be unalloyed joy for the west. I think we need to look through the Ukraine war and find a way to make overtures to Russia post war, bringing them back closer to Europe. If we don't, then the only option for Russia is to serve as a vassal of China, an option much worse for the west, removing a potential barrier between us and the coming enemy and gifting China a foothold on the doorstep of Europe.
Hard as it may sound, if and when Russia is militarily defeated, we will probably need to work to resurrect the German idea of rapprochement through trade - something that worked brilliantly with Germany itself and Japan post WW2, but is seen as a failure post Soviet bloc with Russia. I don't think we have a choice in this. Germany's mistake wasn't to attempt this policy, but instead to fail to recognise when it had stopped working.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2022 6:31:54 GMT
I believe there was an outbreak of Hastings in Covington in 1847 do I win?
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 12, 2022 6:40:05 GMT
If it happens the current prediction that average annual energy bills will consume a staggering two months of average take home pay by early next year would be catastrophic.
Forget about an organised campaign of civil disobedience millions will simply not be able to pay. The economic implications of diverting huge revenues from everyone else to energy companies while an administration twiddle its thumbs and asks them to be nice with their huge additional wealth doesn't just have massive real world consequences it's a political suicide note of epic proportions.
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Post by alec on Aug 12, 2022 6:42:56 GMT
@theexterminatingdalek - "Can somebody cleverer than me explain how allowing fuel bills to quadruple by January won't suck sufficient disposable income from the circulation to lead to mass unemployment and breaking the economy?"
Well £2000 extra on bills for c 20m households would be £40bn, so yes, a lot of money. Not sucked out of the economy, but certainly diverted from crucial consumer spending, so it would be a bit impact.
What I would say though is that the figures on energy bills are only focusing on price changes, not the behavioural changes these will inevitably bring. The aerage household wastes an incredible amount of energy. I could save almost anyone 20% of their energy bills just by some simple measures. [Alec's Top Tip - why do so many people love sitting at home at night with the curtains open? No provacy, and it increases your heating bill by around a quarter, even with good double glazing. Daft people.]
On top of that, people with cash will start spending on efficiency improvements (evidence that this is already happening) which will pump a little back into the economy.
So there will be substantial behavioural adjustments that will slice a lot of this £40bn off, but it will still be hard.
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