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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2022 22:15:17 GMT
I hope the legislation is both robust and fit for purpose. These are precisely the qualities that we Tories look for when subduing the baying mobs.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 5, 2022 22:18:56 GMT
As to much of the other good stuff you mention, it would be a novel approach to suggest that the sports that competitors have been engaged in in Birmingham were invented in the UK, or that golf or cricket (which both long predated the UK) required that particular political union to exist, for them to become "major".I was merely noting that the British Empire was responsible for the spread of many sports (cricket and rugby most obviously) and also a lot of the 'philosophy' of sport that came out of the public (i.e. private) school system. Even the US sports have roots in ones that pre-existed their 'invention' in America. However the Brits were also quite insular about it and the French take a lot of credit for spreading sport more widely via the Olympic movement and FIFA for example.
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Post by lefthanging on Aug 5, 2022 22:20:15 GMT
mercian Well it's all relative, but I can see that the midpoint of the estimate in that study is approximately 670,000. This is exactly 1% of the population of the UK so I think it's fair to call it a relatively small number in that context. somerjohn I agree HMT modelling isn't always on the money, but I am happy to trust my economist colleagues that they are basing their assumptions on genuine expertise. I agree that there will be confounding variables also, but the net impact of a total increase in demand should be inflationary. Where I agree with you most is that this is hardly the area to focus on: clearly a 1% increase in demand over more than a decade does not explain annual property price increases of 10%. Surely the selloff of social housing and the failure to build new houses is to blame. Speaking as a potential first time buyer in my 30s, hoping for an imminent mini-crash (wishful thinking!) but most of all hoping there isn't such a crash immediately after I buy - well, all I can say is that the whole business terrifies me. If anyone wants to give me advice on whether to buy or wait, feel free. Better yet just buy me a house.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2022 22:23:53 GMT
Thought this little prelude to Palace v Arsenal on the Guardian feed was rather nice: “The lovely thing about dogs is that they’re always thrilled to see you. Even if you pop out to post a letter and come back two minutes later, you’ll be greeted as if you’ve been away since 2017. A similar thing happens whenever a new football season begins. We all do a big jig of excitement to celebrate the fact that football is BACK, even though it hever really went away. This year we had the Nations League in June and the Euros in July, not to mention a gazillion extensively covered pre-season friendlies and 482,195 transfer exclusives. Doesn’t matter. Loyal old football-loving dogs that we are, we’ll always start wagging our tail before the first game of the season. Wag wag wag.” Gunner Sir Keir will be pleased with tonight's result. Even more pleased if my team achieve the unlikely feat of beating Spurs tomorrow. He has to have some luck!
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 5, 2022 22:32:55 GMT
Thought this little prelude to Palace v Arsenal on the Guardian feed was rather nice: “The lovely thing about dogs is that they’re always thrilled to see you. Even if you pop out to post a letter and come back two minutes later, you’ll be greeted as if you’ve been away since 2017. A similar thing happens whenever a new football season begins. We all do a big jig of excitement to celebrate the fact that football is BACK, even though it hever really went away. This year we had the Nations League in June and the Euros in July, not to mention a gazillion extensively covered pre-season friendlies and 482,195 transfer exclusives. Doesn’t matter. Loyal old football-loving dogs that we are, we’ll always start wagging our tail before the first game of the season. Wag wag wag.” Gunner Sir Keir will be pleased with tonight's result. Even more pleased if my team achieve the unlikely feat of beating Spurs tomorrow. He has to have some luck! Gunner Sir Keir will at least be able to reflect on a Premier League table with Arsenal at the top - it's not likely to happen again this season.
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 5, 2022 22:34:30 GMT
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Post by mercian on Aug 5, 2022 23:07:26 GMT
lefthanging"If anyone wants to give me advice on whether to buy or wait, feel free." Buy. Rent is dead money and you'll be paying it forever. A mortgage eventually finishes. -------------------- @sotonsaint Is Keir an Arsenal supporter like Call Me Dave was a Villa supporter?
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Post by mercian on Aug 5, 2022 23:15:59 GMT
Testing my theory espoused to lefthanging that having 'left' in a username makes you immune to attack on here. 🤣
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 6, 2022 0:01:37 GMT
I was merely noting that the British Empire was responsible for the spread of many sports (cricket and rugby most obviously) and also a lot of the 'philosophy' of sport that came out of the public (i.e. private) school system. Even the US sports have roots in ones that pre-existed their 'invention' in America. However the Brits were also quite insular about it and the French take a lot of credit for spreading sport more widely via the Olympic movement and FIFA for example. Perhaps a little more than "the British Empire was responsible for the spread of many sports (cricket and rugby most obviously)" as they were simply part of your list of some of the "good stuff" that the UK had done. There can be few states/polities whose supporters can't resist listing their achievements!
Most (if not all) states/polities have done good and bad things, had good and bad ideas, had citizens who benefitted humanity and those who did the opposite. In the sports context, you do now give credit to "the French" for their work, but not "France". As a fellow historian, you will be aware of the importance of noting the terminology that people use, which can be indicative of underlying assumptions and attitudes.
I quite agree with you about the philosophy of sport that was created within the English Public Schools. Just because it was greatly admired by the Nazis who fostered links between their elite gymnasia and English Pubic Schools doesn't mean that everything about it was bad!
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 6, 2022 0:06:16 GMT
Testing my theory espoused to lefthanging that having 'left' in a username makes you immune to attack on here. 🤣 Since labelling yourself as "left", when you are clearly not, is the position of the SLab leadership, it won't give you immunity from attacks by me!
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 6, 2022 0:23:38 GMT
Perhaps a little more than "the British Empire was responsible for the spread of many sports (cricket and rugby most obviously)" as they were simply part of your list of some of the "good stuff" that the UK had done. There can be few states/polities whose supporters can't resist listing their achievements!
Most (if not all) states/polities have done good and bad things, had good and bad ideas, had citizens who benefitted humanity and those who did the opposite. In the sports context, you do now give credit to "the French" for their work, but not "France". As a fellow historian, you will be aware of the importance of noting the terminology that people use, which can be indicative of underlying assumptions and attitudes.
I quite agree with you about the philosophy of sport that was created within the English Public Schools. Just because it was greatly admired by the Nazis who fostered links between their elite gymnasia and English Pubic Schools doesn't mean that everything about it was bad! You are a strange fellow sometimes. All this started with me giving a long list of hideous atrocities committed by the British Empire that I suggested Liz Truss and her ilk wish us all to ignore. This riled JohnC who essentially challenged me to say something nice about the impact of the Empire which he assumed as a 'woke' person I would not do, so I gave a few points which are commonly cited as positive influences. So, just for your sake, I will make it clear that I regard the British Empire as a massive criminal conspiracy that worked very nicely for the British upper and middle classes and had some positive elements for the working class as well but was pretty disastrous for the societies and civilisations elsewhere it was inflicted upon. I trust that is sufficient to clear me of being a "supporter" of the Empire. As to your tendency to nitpick over individual words in posts whose meanings are transparently obvious to everyone else, I would suggest taking up a hobby of some sort as you clearly have to much time on your hands.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2022 4:28:16 GMT
@sotonsaint Is Keir an Arsenal supporter like Call Me Dave was a Villa supporter? Not at all! He's really into footy. In fact, when he was DPP he used to play for another amateur north London team twice a week.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 6, 2022 5:28:50 GMT
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Post by steve on Aug 6, 2022 5:43:09 GMT
Mercian ( or whatever you are calling yourself now)
Your analogy is nonsense if a group of people are prevented by law from purchasing a particular commodity the number of them doesn't impact the price or availability.
As I tried to explain to you those actually in the country " illegally " are prevented by law from owning or renting accommodation, they therefore can't impact its cost or availability.
I think you tried to make some point about where are they then. The simple and obvious answer is we don't know because we don't know the numbers or their location because they're in the country illegally. Other than those detected or deemed illegal because the hostile environment home office has changed their immigration status we won't ever know specifically.
But we do know where they aren't and that's entering into contracts to rent or purchase property.
The majority of course will be staying with others who are legally in the UK, the others will have various reasons for providing shelter. This of course means to all but the wilfully obtuse that there is no impact on the amount of housing available because they are housed within the existing stock.
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Post by pete on Aug 6, 2022 5:46:08 GMT
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Post by lefthanging on Aug 6, 2022 6:35:04 GMT
@sotonsaint Is Keir an Arsenal supporter like Call Me Dave was a Villa supporter? Not at all! He's really into footy. In fact, when he was DPP he used to play for another amateur north London team twice a week. According to the Telegraph even now he still regularly plays five-a-side football. Given his reputation as 'boring' or 'unrelatable', it's a shame that he and his office don't make more of a big deal of it. Perhaps it will come up in some future election debate.
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Post by alec on Aug 6, 2022 6:54:52 GMT
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Post by hireton on Aug 6, 2022 6:58:23 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 6, 2022 7:13:05 GMT
surely the big distortion is that by law new homes are forbidden to be built when the private sector would build them if it could. I don't just mean big established companies with a vested interest in limiting the rate of new builds, but if there was actually a free supply of land with consent to build, then new players would enter the market. Government policy is what has distorted the market. Imagine if government said next year it would restrict the number of new cars it would licence to 10% of demand? that's what is happening with housing.
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Post by jib on Aug 6, 2022 7:14:46 GMT
Having run out of UK based negative Brexit related news, you are now trying to pin the Portuguese bureaucracy on Brexit. Presumably UK nationals choosing to live in Portugal always needed to register with the authorities as being residents, and register for such cards. It was just they abused the system and pretended they were still UK residents on holiday, and probably abused the EHIC system to access free healthcare in Portugal.
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Post by pete on Aug 6, 2022 7:18:15 GMT
How do illegal immigrants get mortgages?
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Post by jib on Aug 6, 2022 7:19:13 GMT
steveYour quote on illegal immigrants: "the UK, the others will have various reasons for providing shelter. This of course means to all but the wilfully obtuse that there is no impact on the amount of housing available because they are housed within the existing stock." That's just nonsense. They live in a house somewhere, contributing to the pressure on existing infrastructure. It is you who chooses to be wilfully ignorant.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Aug 6, 2022 7:39:26 GMT
We're bandying the term 'illegal immigrant' around as a pejorative term and it may be true that the numbers that have entered the country are of the order quoted. However as I understand it many of those immigrants who enter illegally apply for asylum. Surely at that point they are no longer 'illegal' as they've been recognised by the government and have a legal right to remain whilst their asylum claim is assessed and they either progress to be legal immigrants with asylum granted or are denied asylum and put on the admittedly very slow conveyor for removal.
Presumably those that don't apply for asylum are the real illegal immigrants and I suspect are much smaller numbers, given that they cannot really access any services without being discovered and put on the conveyor mentioned above.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 6, 2022 7:43:25 GMT
jib You demean yourself by your own absurdity. If you could find an adult to read the guardian article to you you will see this applies to legally resident UK citizens in Portugal. If you think there aren't many more issues to raise regarding the disaster of brexit that you and your fellows inflicted on us all within the UK your wilful ignorance appears to be reaching new heights. Regarding your comments on housing they are just so patently stupid that it's not worth engaging on. It's akin to saying that guests in a hotel increase the pressure on housing. But presumably as a supporter of the Brexit xenophobia you have to find something to blame on foreigners.
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Post by shevii on Aug 6, 2022 7:44:31 GMT
Was very pleased about this. I came across the crowdfunder somewhere and did my donation so was getting updates and it all seemed a bit touch and go. The token efforts from the general public probably didn't make that much difference compared to the big donations but every little helps and the community interest must have influenced the bigger donations. Beatrix Potter spirit lives on but a shame that very few of the super rich are interested and more interested in buying football clubs or accumulating wealth for themselves.
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Post by jib on Aug 6, 2022 7:52:04 GMT
jib You demean yourself by your own absurdity. If you could find an adult to read the guardian article to you you will see this applies to legally resident UK citizens in Portugal. If you think there aren't many more issues to raise regarding the disaster of brexit that you and your fellows inflicted on us all within the UK your wilful ignorance appears to be reaching new heights. Regarding your comments on housing they are just so patently stupid that it's not worth engaging on. It's akin to saying that guests in a hotel increase the pressure on housing. But presumably as a supporter of the Brexit xenophobia you have to find something to blame on foreigners. I didn't inflict anything, as I've said, this is a Tory Brexit enabled by those who could have had a sensible EEA friendly Brexit deciding to follow Bercow and Grieve down the yellow brick road to nowhere. The Portugal issue is people who were UK residents, but were living in Portugal, who had not registered properly with the authorities. Probably sold up in the UK and bought a villa there many years before Brexit Technically they were not compliant with the law in Portugal and have now been caught out. Fortunately covered by the Brexit deal, but still waiting for the machinations of Portuguese bureaucracy to correct an anomaly. Inconvenient yes, but technically they were in the wrong.
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Post by bardin1 on Aug 6, 2022 7:58:14 GMT
Having run out of UK based negative Brexit related news, you are now trying to pin the Portuguese bureaucracy on Brexit. Presumably UK nationals choosing to live in Portugal always needed to register with the authorities as being residents, and register for such cards. It was just they abused the system and pretended they were still UK residents on holiday, and probably abused the EHIC system to access free healthcare in Portugal. So they should be sent back to buy or rent houses here?
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Post by bardin1 on Aug 6, 2022 8:01:34 GMT
Was very pleased about this. I came across the crowdfunder somewhere and did my donation so was getting updates and it all seemed a bit touch and go. The token efforts from the general public probably didn't make that much difference compared to the big donations but every little helps and the community interest must have influenced the bigger donations. Beatrix Potter spirit lives on but a shame that very few of the super rich are interested and more interested in buying football clubs or accumulating wealth for themselves. That's fantastic news - a lovely area. I spent three memorable days at the Newcastleton folk festival in 1976, the previous heat highspot, and have never forgotten our skinny dip near Newcastleton campsite - where much wildlife was on display!
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Post by lefthanging on Aug 6, 2022 8:02:01 GMT
Thanks for the link. I agree that the impact of illegal immigrants on purchase and rental prices is likely to be tiny for the various reasons I've already given. They have next to nothing to do with the housing crisis - and, whatever their impact, I think it would still be unfair to 'blame' them when all they're doing is seeking a better life here. Particularly when many so-called 'illegal' immigrants are unrecognised refugees. My only point was that it's incorrect to state they have *zero* impact on prices just because they don't purchase property, or because their name isn't on the rent book. They very likely do, however negligible the effect size. I also agree that second homes are a huge problem and I oppose the various unfair incentives and tax reliefs which are given to encourage their proliferation. However my main issue with second homes is the wealth inequality they generate, rather than any direct impact on property prices. This is because - assuming housing stock remains constant - while one more second home means one less home available to buy (pushing purchase prices up), it also means one more home available to rent (pushing rental prices down). Falling rents normally leads to falling property prices, reducing the net effect. Of course that isn't the case where second homes are actually left empty, as in the article you cited. Much more stringent regulation and/or a more muscular property/land tax is perhaps part of the solution.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 6, 2022 8:02:05 GMT
Today's Zoe numbers show just under 3 million people in the UK currently have covid. R now 0.8, with daily new cases down to about half it's recent peak.
There is however indication of levelling off in the fall, suggestive we are approaching a new steady state level. There has been a constant background rate of cases which has risen steadily through peaks and troughs since July 21. Covid has been endemic for a year.
Though I guess it has been endemic and ineradicable since winter 19/20, just hidden by lack of testing and suppressed temporarily by lockdown.
Zoe also collect statistics on number of infections after various numbers of vaccination doses. These show that whether you have had 0,1 or 2 doses of vaccine the positivity rate is much the same on their samples, but drops by half if you have had three doses. I can think of a few explanations why that could be, but one has to be that vaccines wear off fairly quickly and only offer any real protection against reinfection if you had one recently.
They plot this data over time for each group and it's interesting to see how the two dose group used to have this same added protection, but it steadily merged back into the same rate as the 0 and 1 doses groups over a period of months.(most of the effect lost in 6 months, all in 12 months. Some confounding going on as this is a rolling group over that time of new people getting a second dose, then moving on later to have three doses)
Having a past infection gives a similar protective effect against reinfection, with positivity rates dropping 2/3 if you have had an infection, as compared to only dropping 1/2 after third vaccine.
I had another interesting discussion this week with someone from a different school in Hastings to my usual informants. Who confirmed they too had a wave of covid type illness winter 2019. This is pretty important because it means Hastings went through its first wave of covid with no interventions whatever, yet had no larger death rate sufficient to trigger concern or any economic effects. it means we could have handled the entire epidemic this same way and therefore avoidef the recession happening now.
This recession was caused by government policy. They certainly should have understood at the time this would be the consequence of their actions even if they did not explain this to the public. However, the evidence is they caused this recession for no health gains. One of the worst policy decisions in history, yet notably con and even lab still credited Johnson for the success of his covid intervention policy.
He's still in there in pole position to be national scapegoat when the public finally realise lockdown was simply the biggest waste of money in history.
(Although if we do not reverse brexit it may eventually overtake covid as the biggest ever loss of national wealth from a government decision)
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