domjg
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Post by domjg on May 18, 2022 15:54:18 GMT
I did consider "Der Sturmer" Pedant mode: Der Stürmer, with an umlaut. I know you were quoting. Entschuldigung! :-) My fault. I couldn't be bothered to look for a ü and thought Stuermer would look weird |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2022 15:56:08 GMT
Just looking on Wiki to see if any polls out and the consistency of the Conservative VI struck me so I looked back a few weeks. Not withstanding some of these polls are forecast models you have to go back over a month and 21 polls to see a Tory VI not between 33% and 35%. Even then the 32% on the 22nd oldest poll looks like an outlier with Lab at 43%. In the same 21 polls Labour's VI has been as low as 36% and as high as 42%. Lab+Green has been a bit more consistent but not as steady as those Tory numbers. Exactly what I have been thinking in my much less scientific way. Something pretty big is going to have to happen to shift CON numbers further south. I wonder if Inspector Knacker of the Yard highlighting some more Partygate indiscretions might do it, but I think that seam might be getting a bit harder to mine now. |
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2022 15:59:53 GMT
Had to look up Granma. Curiously titled newspaper. There was a feature in the Mail on Sunday I think it was recently denouncing Oxfordshire as a hotbed of dangerous wokery! It was the name of the boat that carried Fidel and the 81 rebels to Cuba in 1956. Very funny don't you think ? The scourge of the Yankee Imperialists and Father of The Revolution in a boat called Granma.  Yes I'd heard about Oxfordshire wokery. They even have a place called Bi-Cester  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2022 16:03:50 GMT
Just looking on Wiki to see if any polls out and the consistency of the Conservative VI struck me so I looked back a few weeks. Not withstanding some of these polls are forecast models you have to go back over a month and 21 polls to see a Tory VI not between 33% and 35%. Even then the 32% on the 22nd oldest poll looks like an outlier with Lab at 43%. In the same 21 polls Labour's VI has been as low as 36% and as high as 42%. Lab+Green has been a bit more consistent but not as steady as those Tory numbers. I still think this indicator is not to be discounted jimjam :- www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/05/18/even-the-oldies-are-now-giving-johnson-negative-ratings/Together with the kind of "base line" Party support you highlight it is beyond me why Tory MPs can't see that a change in leader is needed. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 18, 2022 16:15:45 GMT
Not sure this is what people understood levelling up to mean? Seems a particularly tone deaf response to people struggling, especially for those at the bottom
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steve
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Post by steve on May 18, 2022 16:35:05 GMT
 "It took "Mohammed" more than three years and a journey of more than 5,000 miles to reach the UK after fleeing a massacre in his village in Sudan." So our disgrace of a xenophobic regime has decided that Mohammed is the perfect candidate for forced rendition to the home of hundreds of similar atrocities, Rwanda. “I thought the UK was a good country with a lot of humanity,” Mohammed said. “I’m shocked that the Home Office is not treating me like a human being. Humanity and Patel two words not normally appearing in the same sentence unless accompanied by " devoid of". |
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Post by robbiealive on May 18, 2022 16:37:57 GMT
Actually , what I notice here sometimes, is a laser like interest in my ( occasionally) sarcastic responses , but zero interest in the posts I was responding to.. I have thought about it a lot and conclude that it is a condition first identified in one Admiral Lord Nelson. Robbie Nelson was the greatest Brit hero of his generatiom. You may achieve a similar status, tho time is running out, |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 18, 2022 16:40:12 GMT
Inflation rises to 9% the highest level for 40 years and likely to rise further RPI inflation is now 11% - higher than Thatcher inherited in May 1979! yes. The difference is more than I expected. It means government managed to magic away 18% of of the inflation Thatcher desperately needed to tackle. How good is that? For far too long , imo, Central Bankers have been creating the illusion of economic growth by facilitating ever more debt-massive chunks of it sitting as an "asset" on their own balance sheets. Finance Ministers have forgotten what they are supposed to do -and how to do it. I sometimes wonder when this whole pack of cards is going to collapse . You fill me with confidence Colin. Lucky we have the geniuses running the country that we do.All we need to do now is magic away the rest of that inflation. |
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Post by Old Southendian on May 18, 2022 16:51:33 GMT
Yes I'd heard about Oxfordshire wokery. They even have a place called Bi-Cester 
It's more like Buy-Cester. Home of millions of discounted items that you never knew you wanted which are actually not very discounted after all. If you've never heard of Bicester Shopping Village, you're a lucky man.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 18, 2022 17:03:04 GMT
Yes I'd heard about Oxfordshire wokery. They even have a place called Bi-Cester
It's more like Buy-Cester. Home of millions of discounted items that you never knew you wanted which are actually not very discounted after all. If you've never heard of Bicester Shopping Village, you're a lucky man.
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Post by Mark on May 18, 2022 17:30:06 GMT
how can not you not but enjoy Bicester Village - it has a Lululemon, Jimmy Choo, Fendi, Longchamp the list goes on - hours of fun! I didn't know your moniker was actually a store! We don't have one here... I'd always assumed your name was Lulu/Lucy/some variation thereof and the "Lemon" part was a descriptor or statement. Apologies if that sounds odd, here in Wales, it is not entirely unusual for an adjective to follow a noun...and is the norm in Welsh. |
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Post by alec on May 18, 2022 17:31:30 GMT
lens - appreciate your concern about the community case monitoring. Opinions are rarely black and white, and it's good to be able to agree on something. steve - yes, I was a bit loose with my stats on the 1.3% of workforce off because of long covid. The 1.3% is the rise in inactive workers since Q4 2019 (525K) of which c 320K - 350K could reasonably be attributed to long covid. There are another 90K early retirees, many of which could be a result of covid. I personally know of four people (all female) in health/teaching/caring professions, two of which have left and two who have reduced hours, all due to a desire to avoid covid or reduce infection risk. I suspect that will be a big factor here. But you are right - the numbers don't add up to 1.3%, but they are significant and growing. @whoever called me a Cassandra: don't forget that Cassandra's curse wasn't to be perpetually pessimistic. She was cursed to have the foresight to see the dangers ahead, in a society where no one believed her. Cassandra was right, which makes her invocation here slightly misplaced.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 18, 2022 17:32:42 GMT
It's more like Buy-Cester. Home of millions of discounted items that you never knew you wanted which are actually not very discounted after all. If you've never heard of Bicester Shopping Village, you're a lucky man.
You're talking cobblers again, Lulu. 😁👍 |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 18, 2022 17:39:37 GMT
Knew there was something worth mentioning. Ukraine seems to have staged a war crime trial, to excellent propaganda effect. 21 year old soldier looking too young to have been sent to war. Another soldier told him to do it. Looks terrified and sorry. Brilliant imagery.
Meanwhile Russia is quite likely torturing soldiers surrendered from Mariupol.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 18, 2022 18:17:25 GMT
Yes I'd heard about Oxfordshire wokery. They even have a place called Bi-Cester
It's more like Buy-Cester. Home of millions of discounted items that you never knew you wanted which are actually not very discounted after all. If you've never heard of Bicester Shopping Village, you're a lucky man.
I've managed to visit Bicester village only once in all the years I've been in this neck of the woods, taken there by an ex girlfriend. The commercial horror, the commercial horror.. Seemed to be very popular with Asian tourists coming up from London on the train. |
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Post by jayblanc on May 18, 2022 18:26:14 GMT
Re-the jubilee. At heart, I am a republican, in the sense that I would prefer the monarchy didn't exist, but, have never (and likely will never) campaign on this issue as, for the most part, it is an irrelevance and there are far, far more important issues. For the record, I think that Mrs Windsor has done a very good job in her role. I have absolutely no idea when the jubilee is, nor do I particularly care. If people here want to hold a street party, then fine, let them have one and enjoy it. I may even show my face should such an event take place, not from any feeling about anything royal...but, because cake. And vodka. I shall submit my small protest by intentionally and consistently mispronouncing it as 'The Jubblee' |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 18, 2022 18:35:28 GMT
It's more like Buy-Cester. Home of millions of discounted items that you never knew you wanted which are actually not very discounted after all. If you've never heard of Bicester Shopping Village, you're a lucky man.
Louboutin and more… just looked at the list of boutiques, quite the sort of place my gf would like to visit. Not so good for audio, though they do have a Bang and Olufsen:  Only £82,000 for the pair of speakers |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 18, 2022 18:41:12 GMT
Someone Mentioned the Schleswig-Holstein question and I remembered that Lord Palmerston is reported to have said: "Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business – the Prince Consort, who is dead – a German professor, who has gone mad – and I, who have forgotten all about it." I was in Schleswig- Holstein in September 2016 as part of a two week trip with the first week in Neustadt (visiting nearby Hamburg) the second week staying in the beautiful town of Schleswig ( the Schloss and museum is well worth a visit as is the church). Apart from being embarrassed about the Black Thursday vote (see what I did there) it was a fantastic trip meeting wonderful people, with my group the nationalities included were Polish, Latvian, Italian, Romanian, Portuguese and Spanish. We discovered that because there is a large ethnic Danish minority, they are guaranteed a certain representation in the Landtag. If anyone should go there close to the Danish border is the town of Flensburg, I visited the Flensburger brewery, go by all means but don't make the mistake that the beer is of similar ABV to your local pint or you will come to regret it  Schleswig-Holstein proves that the actual answer to the Schleswig-Holstein question, and by induction most other 'ethnic territorial disputes', is to ask the people who live there what they want to do. So successful with Schleswig-Holstein that people forgot what the question was in the first place.
Whether the Russian plebiscite was rigged or not, I don't know - but the Ukrainian law that no part of the state could have a referendum on such an issue unless the whole of Ukraine was allowed to vote, is a clear example of legislative rigging that (so far) even the UK has declined to do! |
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Post by johntel on May 18, 2022 18:46:29 GMT
I shall definitely be attending our street party. It should be interesting as some of the houses want to sell their back gardens to a developer and those that aren't in on the scheme are objecting strongly. The initial planning application was turned down because of 'overdevelopment' (despite the council's policy of promoting smaller affordable homes) and also one objector reported bats living in the area, so it's gone to appeal. I'm expecting fireworks  . |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 18, 2022 18:51:10 GMT
I know a few and, back in 2014 before the referendum, Panelbase had a poll which included asking "which football team do you support" along with the "how will you vote" question
Still, why let data get in the way of ignorant stereotyping?
A picture can be worth more than a thousand polls 😉Perhaps you can source some data though which indicates all the saltires have been confiscated by the Spanish police.
Anent the poll, I should probably have pointed out that it was of football supporters living in Scotland. Those in Belfast and other areas of Northern Ireland were not included, though many go to Ibrox and will be in Seville today.Attachment Deleted |
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Post by johntel on May 18, 2022 19:08:27 GMT
Schleswig-Holstein proves that the actual answer to the Schleswig-Holstein question, and by induction most other 'ethnic territorial disputes', is to ask the people who live there what they want to do. So successful with Schleswig-Holstein that people forgot what the question was in the first place.
Whether the Russian plebiscite was rigged or not, I don't know - but the Ukrainian law that no part of the state could have a referendum on such an issue unless the whole of Ukraine was allowed to vote, is a clear example of legislative rigging that (so far) even the UK has declined to do! The plebiscite wasn't rigged per se - but many people who publicly voiced objection to the Russian takeover were beaten up or physically threatened and decided to leave for 'mainland' Ukraine. Many will be actively fighting to protect it now of course. And Crimea's population has been boosted by several hundred thousand refugees from Donbas who have settled there over the years and especially since the invasion. Up to 2014 there wasn't any significant movement in Crimea for re-joining Russia - Putin quickly used the upheavals of that year to generate fear amongst the population which was then the justification for the annexation. It's hardly surprising that Ukraine tried to suppress pro-Russian activity after that. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 18, 2022 19:17:19 GMT
UK energy exports to Europe hit record levels
Britain is using port capacity for liquified natural gas to help Europe replace supplies from Russia
By
Rachel Millard
18 May 2022 • 6:00am
“The UK has been exporting record levels of energy to Europe after ships delivered vast quantities of liquid gas to British ports from around the world.
Both gas and electricity exports to the continent have surged in recent months as prices in Europe climb above those in the UK.
It comes amid efforts to use the UK as a "bridge" to Europe for international supplies of gas to replace those from Russia.
Ying-Chin Chou, senior gas analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said pipelines sending gas from Britain to the continent had been “maximised” since early April, with British prices at a "substantial" discount to the export market.
S&P data shows Britain has been exporting gas to Europe rather than importing since around February, with far higher exports than the 2016-2019 average.
Rob Lalor, director of analytics at electricity market specialists EnAppSys, said a similar trend has been seen more recently with electricity.”
Telegraph
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 18, 2022 19:58:45 GMT
<button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> Humanity and Patel two words not normally appearing in the same sentence unless accompanied by " devoid of". |
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Post by mercian on May 18, 2022 21:31:31 GMT
Ok - undemocratic because we couldn't vote for or against any of their various presidents or the commission. Yes there is a fig-leaf parliament which we could vote for (and overwhelmingly UKIP last time) but it has no meaningful powers. But even in the UK you don't vote for the Prime Minister. You don't have a say on who is in the cabinet. And you certainly don't have any input into the construction of the Upper House. Even in the US you don't vote for the president, you vote for someone else to vote for them. The European Parliament has gained many powers over the years, and it often has a final say over any legislation. Take brexit for example. Johnson's oven ready deal would not have happened without the approval of the EP. The EP was an essential part of the process. Sclerotic because it can't get much to happen fast in an emergency because of the need to get 27 countries' agreement. A recent example is, as I understand it, Hungary's veto on an EU-wide ban on Russian oil etc. Of course in my opinion the EU shouldn't be making such decisions anyway, and I respect Hungary's stance even if I'd preferred a different decision. If Hungary holds out and the EU cannot agree we will be in the same place as if the EU didn't exist. Each nation will have to decide how to respond. However, if they can convince Hungary to comply the potency is so much greater. As I said previously the EU provides a forum where all its members can decide how best to proceed, and by having a half-million person economy walking in lock-step is a very powerful force globally. I honestly think you miss the point. Everyone takes part in the EU voluntarily, and everyone's influence is therefore greatly magnified. Look at what this means for the UK now. We don't want to follow EU rules, because that makes us an ineffective vassal state. So we want a UK-specific quality mark -- UKCA. But who will use it? If you are a small business and only trade in the UK it may make sense, but if trade at all in the EU possessing the CE mark means your products are respected by c. 500 million potential customers. Why would anybody in the real world not want that? 1. We may not be able to vote directly for the PM or cabinet, but we can most definitely vote to kick them out. 2. Re exports to the EU - very few do facts4eu.org/news/2020_oct_truth_about_UK_exporters |
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Post by mercian on May 18, 2022 21:35:45 GMT
Re the Bicester conversation. For some reason I am using a railway ticket from 2004 as a bookmark. This is a return from Marylebone to Bicester. Why on earth I would have made such a journey I have no idea. Possibly my car was out of action?
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 18, 2022 21:55:18 GMT
Re the Bicester conversation. For some reason I am using a railway ticket from 2004 as a bookmark. This is a return from Marylebone to Bicester. Why on earth I would have made such a journey I have no idea. Possibly my car was out of action? Maybe you went to buy some Louboutins…  |
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Post by bedknobsandboomstick on May 18, 2022 22:12:07 GMT
Martin Lewis absolutely extraordinary about the cost of living on Peston just now.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 18, 2022 22:12:55 GMT
Ref the 33-35% bedrock Conservative support - I think we need to acknowledge that the 'culture wars' stuff works. There are around a third of people who are cultural conservatives and will vote Tory regardless of how incompetent or corrupt the government is because they are convinced that the alternative represents a existential threat to their way of life. With the return of some waverers at a GE, that is potentially enough to deliver another Conservative victory. I think those voters are wrong about this "threat", which is in reality largely a illusion, but the fact they believe it is not just the fault of very effective propaganda by the RoC press and influencers, it is also the fault of the left for failing to come up with a convincing counter-narrative. As it happens the Guardian has published an article on this that sums up a lot of my own views. Here are a few key takeaways: "The wokemob, argues the modern story, is hellbent on lavishing minorities and immigrants with undeserved privileges at the expense of the white working class (sometimes described using more euphemistic terminology like the “authentic” or “traditional” working class). This is clever on the part of the people promoting this anti-woke story, because they are essentially telling us that equality is a zero-sum game in which white people lose out when advancements in racial justice are made." This is a key point - In truth, the real enemy of the white working class is not the black working class, or for that matter the Polish working class, it is the neo-liberal ideology pushed by very wealthy and powerful interests for the last 40+ years that has destroyed working class power and influence, in order to hugely increase the share of the national cake that goes to the 0.1% at the expense of everyone else (as demonstrated by the vast increase in inequality since 1979 equalitytrust.org.uk/how-has-inequality-changed). "Faced with such a vivid and emotive story, the response of the people on my side of the political spectrum – the progressive side – has been a kind of paralysis. Unsure of what to say and afraid of being labelled woke ourselves, progressives oscillate between repeating damaging elements of the anti-woke story ... or simply denouncing the anti-woke narrative as racist ... The underlying problem is that we are yet to create our own competing story about society, the country in which we live, and our shared values and needs." I strongly agree with this - the left has not articulated a compelling story of what sort of society it now wants and how this will work for everyone. Starmer - and come to that Davey - won't do this because they are committed to the supposed inevitability of the neo-liberal narrative (Corbyn, who wasn't, IMO offered too much of a return to the 1970s - e.g. nationalisation - rather than a fresh vision). The conclusion of the article is: "Progressives sometimes like to see ourselves as too evidence-driven and honourable to get into the dirty business of emotive politics. But the truth is we’re not above this issue: we’re asleep at the wheel as our opponents paint us as the enemy. It’s time to change course, and fast." I agree, otherwise the right will continue to win elections for some time and, to be honest, will deserve to. For my tuppenny worth, a future left vision needs to be based on the genuinely existential threat of climate change and the fact that only by collective, communal action can we avoid disaster. In that sense it is an emergency equivalent to a world war, and of course the outcome of WW2 in domestic political terms was 35 years of solidarity, increased equality and social democracy. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/18/left-right-anti-woke-agenda-mediaApologies for the rant! |
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Post by alec on May 18, 2022 22:21:03 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w/ colin - that Telegraph story on the UK provding gas and electricity to the EU is typically lopsided. It is true that the UK has a glut of LNG at present, which has dropped the day ahead price here, below that in Europe. This has resulted in UK electricity producers firing up the gas turbines which explains why the electricity interconnectors are also flowing the other way right now. However, the fact that this is happening at all is a reflection of the fact that the UK has very limited gas storage. Ideally we should be filling storage with cheap gas, but we can't, because we neglected to build any. That means consumers won't derive any relief from this temporary situation, and they will not get any relief from the day ahead price drop either, because the vast bulk of energy supplies are fixed in advance.
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Post by alec on May 18, 2022 22:27:54 GMT
I find this quite shocking -
Usforthem are basically a front for some bizzare anti vaxxer and anti mask political extremists, and they have been invited to address the APPG on Early Years. Many Tory MPs have been working with Usforthem, and it's rather depressing to see the purveyors of misinformation have such high level access to the party of government.
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