domjg
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Posts: 5,138
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Post by domjg on May 18, 2022 22:38:02 GMT
pjw1961 re culture wars, I’m a bit more optimistic than that. Yes this culture war stuff does cut through with some but I think they’re a far smaller number than that 33 odd percent many of whom are still professing they’ll vote Tory for other reasons, especially if they don’t currently see an alternative they’re yet comfortable with. Let’s see what the results of the upcoming by-elections will be. The Tories will continue to bang the culture war drum but less I suspect in confidence than simply out of desperation for lack of much else to offer. I think Labour and yes the LDs too, need to focus on solutions to material problems of which there are many and on which the Tories have next to nothing. Worrying too much about the culture wars is agreeing to play on the right’s chosen battleground and allowing energy to be used up by it.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 18, 2022 22:52:15 GMT
Re Flightradar24. Air traffic control look like they’re having fun this evening. Some very convoluted approach routes to Heathrow and Gatwick due to thunderstorms in Southern England.
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Post by mercian on May 18, 2022 22:56:24 GMT
Ref the 33-35% bedrock Conservative support - I think we need to acknowledge that the 'culture wars' stuff works. There are around a third of people who are cultural conservatives and will vote Tory regardless of how incompetent or corrupt the government is because they are convinced that the alternative represents a existential threat to their way of life. With the return of some waverers at a GE, that is potentially enough to deliver another Conservative victory. I agree with a lot of what you said, but it's a little more complicated than that. A lot of Labour support comes from inner cities where a large proportion of people are of Asian or African descent. Many of these are cultural conservatives to the extreme - burkas, arranged marriages, etc etc. One of the reasons for Labour's apparent failure to find an alternative vision is that they have to keep these folks happy while also pandering to the 'woke' students etc who are another important part of their support. I don't see how it's possible to create a realistic set of policies that satisfy both - apart from Tory stuff such as cutting taxes. I really can't see Labour recapturing the WWC on a big scale because the two groups mentioned above are anathema to many of the WWC. It's possible that Labour could be the largest party after the next GE, but in the longer term they are doomed (IMO). Greens will gradually capture more of the woke brigade and we may well see more successful versions of Respect emerging to capture the immigrant-descended vote. Labour are fighting the tides of history. Large scale employment in factories and mines etc has largely gone, and they've accidentally gained these two new groups who have virtually nothing in common. Labour will continue to exist, just as the Liberals do of course and will have periods of resurgence but I think their days of being the alternative natural party of government are numbered. I'm talking 20 or 30 years, not the immediate future, and all IMHO of course. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 18, 2022 22:57:34 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w / colin - that Telegraph story on the UK provding gas and electricity to the EU is typically lopsided. It is true that the UK has a glut of LNG at present, which has dropped the day ahead price here, below that in Europe. This has resulted in UK electricity producers firing up the gas turbines which explains why the electricity interconnectors are also flowing the other way right now. However, the fact that this is happening at all is a reflection of the fact that the UK has very limited gas storage. Ideally we should be filling storage with cheap gas, but we can't, because we neglected to build any. That means consumers won't derive any relief from this temporary situation, and they will not get any relief from the day ahead price drop either, because the vast bulk of energy supplies are fixed in advance. Well if you want to move it to a lack of investment in our energy infrastructure I think you know that I would have us do a great deal more. How far would you go? But in this instance isn’t there a drive to import more to pass it on to the EU to help them out regardless of storage E.g. “March 24, 2022 1:54 PM GMT Last Updated 2 months ago Energy
U.S., UK to send more LNG to Europe -British ambassador
Reuters
‘WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) - The United States and Britain will work together to ship more liquefied natural gas to Europe, the British ambassador to Washington said on Thursday, as officials aim to ease European countries' dependence on Russian energy amid the war in Ukraine.
"We are working with the Americans to get more LNG into Europe," Karen Pierce, the United Kingdom's ambassador to the United States, told MSNBC in an interview.
"We've come to an arrangement with the Port of Baltimore. ... The LNG terminal in Baltimore will ship more LNG to the UK, and we'll ship it onto Europe," she added, calling it "a transition" measure.”www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-uk-send-more-lng-europe-british-ambassador-2022-03-24/And we can help because we aren’t as exposed to Russian gas and can use our LNG facilities to help while they try and build more of their own. (Or connect up the existing facilities as that seems to be part of the problem). |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on May 18, 2022 23:30:59 GMT
Shock! Horror!
Maybe it isn't only Tory MPs who commit sexual offences.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 19, 2022 0:13:51 GMT
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Post by eor on May 19, 2022 1:17:43 GMT
lens - appreciate your concern about the community case monitoring. Opinions are rarely black and white, and it's good to be able to agree on something. steve - yes, I was a bit loose with my stats on the 1.3% of workforce off because of long covid. The 1.3% is the rise in inactive workers since Q4 2019 (525K) of which c 320K - 350K could reasonably be attributed to long covid. There are another 90K early retirees, many of which could be a result of covid. I personally know of four people (all female) in health/teaching/caring professions, two of which have left and two who have reduced hours, all due to a desire to avoid covid or reduce infection risk. I suspect that will be a big factor here. But you are right - the numbers don't add up to 1.3%, but they are significant and growing. - one thing that makes me curious here is how broad the phrase "a result of covid" is in reality. There are after all many households who have experienced a couple of years of mostly or wholly homeworking, saved very substantial amounts in terms of commuting costs, unavailability of foreign holidays and so on, and I wouldn't be shocked if these skewed towards households that also contain women in their 50s or early 60s. I don't doubt that some of the impact on inactivity is due to debilitation from COVID, but what I wonder is whether a chunk of it is also due to people realising they don't need to go back to how things were? Either because they've got enough saved up that they can choose to retire earlier than previously planned, or indeed because prior to COVID they were putting up with degrees of unpleasantness from continuing to work with any of a number of physical or mental ailments, and now the cost savings for the other wage-earner mean they don't have to compromise on living standards by stopping work? |
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Post by eor on May 19, 2022 1:23:29 GMT
Just how corrupt are the Tory party and right-wing press who brush over this? Might be harsh to blame the right-wing press on this occasion - did a quick search and couldn't see any reference in the Guardian, and Dodds asked the question under parliamentary privilege, so I wonder if there's a superinjunction applying here that prevents any UK media from covering it or commenting on why they're not? Who sought one and why would be a perfectly valid question if there is; it's certainly a system that's been open to much abuse by the powerful in the past. |
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Post by eor on May 19, 2022 1:36:04 GMT
I've been watching the brilliant Derry Girls and just finished series 2. The last episode featured Clinton's visit to NI. Let's hope Boris is not about to destroy another generation of NI. Youth. He really doesn't give a damn! Does he?! We just finished the third and final series tonight. There were a fair few moments earlier in this series where it felt like they'd gone a series too far and things had got a bit formulaic in the way that British sitcoms so often quickly do, but the final few episodes were characteristically great, totally worth sticking with. |
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Post by alec on May 19, 2022 6:27:52 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - this is why the US and UK are working on the LNG supply in the way that they are now - agsi.gie.eu/UK gas storage at 91%, EU at 40%. The EU is driving to get storage to 100% ready for the winter, while also rapidly building new LNG processing and storage capacity (Germany will have it's first processing plant before the winter). I'm not sure if the UK is doing any investment.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2022 6:32:52 GMT
I really can't see Labour recapturing the WWC on a big scale because the two groups mentioned above are anathema to many of the WWC. It's possible that Labour could be the largest party after the next GE, but in the longer term they are doomed (IMO). Greens will gradually capture more of the woke brigade and we may well see more successful versions of Respect emerging to capture the immigrant-descended vote. Labour are fighting the tides of history. Large scale employment in factories and mines etc has largely gone, and they've accidentally gained these two new groups who have virtually nothing in common. Labour will continue to exist, just as the Liberals do of course and will have periods of resurgence but I think their days of being the alternative natural party of government are numbered. I'm talking 20 or 30 years, not the immediate future, and all IMHO of course. The future as you would like it to be. I think the white working class are maybe not as socially conservative or as anti-union as you think. It's basically the retired that vote Tory. They don't live forever, just seem to. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 19, 2022 6:46:17 GMT
Attachment DeletedSo the "punishment " for the man behind bring your own booze party at number ten has been announced. A proposed promotion to UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia. Here's his new house. Fortunately as sovereign territory the Saudi alcohol ban won't apply if he wants to have a tipple.
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Post by jimjam on May 19, 2022 6:47:44 GMT
On the 33-35% Tory consistent vote share.
Sorry to repeat but due to Covid imo we are only 18 months in to this Electoral cycle, with the cost living crisis gathering pace I expect that VI to fall and be consistently below 30% later this year or early next.
Also, it would be interesting if a polling company repeated the Johnson led Tories v Starmer led Labour poll.
When they did this a few months ago the gap widened by around 5% suggesting some Tory voters are sticking with them as they believe he will be gone by the time of the GE.
NB) Wouldn't surprise me if this parliament went almost a full 5 years now and the GE is October or even November 2024.
May 2024 will be the target but if polls aren't encouraging the Tories may well try to get a few more months in office; and a few more months for something to occur to boost their chances.
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Post by moby on May 19, 2022 6:55:21 GMT
Ref the 33-35% bedrock Conservative support - I think we need to acknowledge that the 'culture wars' stuff works. There are around a third of people who are cultural conservatives and will vote Tory regardless of how incompetent or corrupt the government is because they are convinced that the alternative represents a existential threat to their way of life. With the return of some waverers at a GE, that is potentially enough to deliver another Conservative victory. I think those voters are wrong about this "threat", which is in reality largely a illusion, but the fact they believe it is not just the fault of very effective propaganda by the RoC press and influencers, it is also the fault of the left for failing to come up with a convincing counter-narrative. As it happens the Guardian has published an article on this that sums up a lot of my own views. Here are a few key takeaways: "The wokemob, argues the modern story, is hellbent on lavishing minorities and immigrants with undeserved privileges at the expense of the white working class (sometimes described using more euphemistic terminology like the “authentic” or “traditional” working class). This is clever on the part of the people promoting this anti-woke story, because they are essentially telling us that equality is a zero-sum game in which white people lose out when advancements in racial justice are made." This is a key point - In truth, the real enemy of the white working class is not the black working class, or for that matter the Polish working class, it is the neo-liberal ideology pushed by very wealthy and powerful interests for the last 40+ years that has destroyed working class power and influence, in order to hugely increase the share of the national cake that goes to the 0.1% at the expense of everyone else (as demonstrated by the vast increase in inequality since 1979 equalitytrust.org.uk/how-has-inequality-changed). "Faced with such a vivid and emotive story, the response of the people on my side of the political spectrum – the progressive side – has been a kind of paralysis. Unsure of what to say and afraid of being labelled woke ourselves, progressives oscillate between repeating damaging elements of the anti-woke story ... or simply denouncing the anti-woke narrative as racist ... The underlying problem is that we are yet to create our own competing story about society, the country in which we live, and our shared values and needs." I strongly agree with this - the left has not articulated a compelling story of what sort of society it now wants and how this will work for everyone. Starmer - and come to that Davey - won't do this because they are committed to the supposed inevitability of the neo-liberal narrative (Corbyn, who wasn't, IMO offered too much of a return to the 1970s - e.g. nationalisation - rather than a fresh vision). The conclusion of the article is: "Progressives sometimes like to see ourselves as too evidence-driven and honourable to get into the dirty business of emotive politics. But the truth is we’re not above this issue: we’re asleep at the wheel as our opponents paint us as the enemy. It’s time to change course, and fast." I agree, otherwise the right will continue to win elections for some time and, to be honest, will deserve to. For my tuppenny worth, a future left vision needs to be based on the genuinely existential threat of climate change and the fact that only by collective, communal action can we avoid disaster. In that sense it is an emergency equivalent to a world war, and of course the outcome of WW2 in domestic political terms was 35 years of solidarity, increased equality and social democracy. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/18/left-right-anti-woke-agenda-mediaApologies for the rant! Excellent post and article and says something I was trying to say in a post I made recently on my feelings about my home town Wrexham going tory for the first time in 2019. The 'culture wars' material definitely works for the right and bolsters the VI. Watching pmq's yesterday, Starmer pinned Johnson down time after time on internal cabinet divisions on a windfall tax; inflation, cost of living etc make the tories vulnerable but only to a certain extent it seems. Johnsons one effective attack line was that Labour 'couldn't even make its mind up what a woman was'. It was a line that was unfair and simplistic regarding the issues but that didn't matter to Johnson. All he cared about was the fact that it placed him on the side of a 30-35% bedrock of people who feel strongly (rightly or wrongly) about such issues. For them taxes, inflation, cost of living crises will come and go and are Labours answers any better anyway.....but they do feel very strongly about e.g the fact that their culture/society is changing in ways they don't like; 'wokery' is destroying 'my values and history'. We are clearly not so polarised as the USA yet but we are going in that direction imo. The term 'white privilege' and narratives about empire and slavery have clearly emerged as a polarising focus for conflict regarding your 'world view' and are issues which absolutely enrage people, many of whom actually don't feel at all privileged themselves. On the doorsteps during elections 'the truth' and actual statistics showing it is not a zero sum game does not seem to cut through because people feel very deeply about such things within themselves regardless. |
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Post by jib on May 19, 2022 6:56:14 GMT
Ref the 33-35% bedrock Conservative support - I think we need to acknowledge that the 'culture wars' stuff works. There are around a third of people who are cultural conservatives and will vote Tory regardless of how incompetent or corrupt the government is because they are convinced that the alternative represents a existential threat to their way of life. With the return of some waverers at a GE, that is potentially enough to deliver another Conservative victory. I think those voters are wrong about this "threat", which is in reality largely a illusion, but the fact they believe it is not just the fault of very effective propaganda by the RoC press and influencers, it is also the fault of the left for failing to come up with a convincing counter-narrative. As it happens the Guardian has published an article on this that sums up a lot of my own views. Here are a few key takeaways: "The wokemob, argues the modern story, is hellbent on lavishing minorities and immigrants with undeserved privileges at the expense of the white working class (sometimes described using more euphemistic terminology like the “authentic” or “traditional” working class). This is clever on the part of the people promoting this anti-woke story, because they are essentially telling us that equality is a zero-sum game in which white people lose out when advancements in racial justice are made." This is a key point - In truth, the real enemy of the white working class is not the black working class, or for that matter the Polish working class, it is the neo-liberal ideology pushed by very wealthy and powerful interests for the last 40+ years that has destroyed working class power and influence, in order to hugely increase the share of the national cake that goes to the 0.1% at the expense of everyone else (as demonstrated by the vast increase in inequality since 1979 equalitytrust.org.uk/how-has-inequality-changed). "Faced with such a vivid and emotive story, the response of the people on my side of the political spectrum – the progressive side – has been a kind of paralysis. Unsure of what to say and afraid of being labelled woke ourselves, progressives oscillate between repeating damaging elements of the anti-woke story ... or simply denouncing the anti-woke narrative as racist ... The underlying problem is that we are yet to create our own competing story about society, the country in which we live, and our shared values and needs." I strongly agree with this - the left has not articulated a compelling story of what sort of society it now wants and how this will work for everyone. Starmer - and come to that Davey - won't do this because they are committed to the supposed inevitability of the neo-liberal narrative (Corbyn, who wasn't, IMO offered too much of a return to the 1970s - e.g. nationalisation - rather than a fresh vision). The conclusion of the article is: "Progressives sometimes like to see ourselves as too evidence-driven and honourable to get into the dirty business of emotive politics. But the truth is we’re not above this issue: we’re asleep at the wheel as our opponents paint us as the enemy. It’s time to change course, and fast." I agree, otherwise the right will continue to win elections for some time and, to be honest, will deserve to. For my tuppenny worth, a future left vision needs to be based on the genuinely existential threat of climate change and the fact that only by collective, communal action can we avoid disaster. In that sense it is an emergency equivalent to a world war, and of course the outcome of WW2 in domestic political terms was 35 years of solidarity, increased equality and social democracy. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/18/left-right-anti-woke-agenda-mediaApologies for the rant! The Tories are very clever in how they maintain a broad church of the asset wealthy, traditionalists and ex-UKIP "mini Trumpists". You are right not to underestimate the chances of a Tory win in just under 2 years'. However, Corbynites were just unprofessional buffoons who few could take seriously. There's ample grounds for Labour to offer the interventionist agenda to address inequality through more effective regulation of utilities, tackling things like standing charges of bills for the poor and those on pre-payment meters etc. There is growing inequality in the UK, driven partly by those who take on too much "cheap" debt to achieve their aspirations. Cheap debt still has to be paid off at some point and a lot are now vulnerable to a double whammy of interest rate rises and loss of asset value. The working poor are a massive concern and the Tories risk losing the next election heavily if they can't turn things around. I don't believe they will. |
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Post by alec on May 19, 2022 7:05:07 GMT
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Post by barbara on May 19, 2022 7:07:17 GMT
I shall definitely be attending our street party. It should be interesting as some of the houses want to sell their back gardens to a developer and those that aren't in on the scheme are objecting strongly. The initial planning application was turned down because of 'overdevelopment' (despite the council's policy of promoting smaller affordable homes) and also one objector reported bats living in the area, so it's gone to appeal. I'm expecting fireworks  . Our small hamlet fell out last year over support for and opposition to a solar farm scheme proposed on the famer's fields. In the end Durham CC turned it down. The major conspiracy theory objector (causes cancer) has fall out with everyone and isn't attending the jubilee Street party. |
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Post by alec on May 19, 2022 7:10:00 GMT
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Post by barbara on May 19, 2022 7:12:04 GMT
Re the Bicester conversation. For some reason I am using a railway ticket from 2004 as a bookmark. This is a return from Marylebone to Bicester. Why on earth I would have made such a journey I have no idea. Possibly my car was out of action? Maybe you went to buy some Louboutins…  I love them! And if my feet weren't those of a 68 year old woman who has spent a lifetime damaging her feet by wearing inappropriate shoes I would wear them. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 19, 2022 7:19:29 GMT
I really can't see Labour recapturing the WWC on a big scale because the two groups mentioned above are anathema to many of the WWC. It's possible that Labour could be the largest party after the next GE, but in the longer term they are doomed (IMO). Greens will gradually capture more of the woke brigade and we may well see more successful versions of Respect emerging to capture the immigrant-descended vote. Labour are fighting the tides of history. Large scale employment in factories and mines etc has largely gone, and they've accidentally gained these two new groups who have virtually nothing in common. Labour will continue to exist, just as the Liberals do of course and will have periods of resurgence but I think their days of being the alternative natural party of government are numbered. I'm talking 20 or 30 years, not the immediate future, and all IMHO of course. The future as you would like it to be. I think the white working class are maybe not as socially conservative or as anti-union as you think. It's basically the retired that vote Tory. They don't live forever, just seem to. Indeed. Dollops of wishful thinking always accompany the predicted doom of political parties, especially if they happen to be ones you oppose and would rather like to die. Great, earnest books have been written in the past - "Can Labour ever win again?" and "The Strange Death of Tory England" being just two - but both Tory and Labour parties have risen off their respective death beds many times and, I expect, will do so again. Of course the two hulking monoliths that sit like giant cuckoos in our political system, are sustained by our ludicrously unrepresentative and increasingly obsolescent electoral system. With a proportional system, their hegemony would have died decades ago and we'd have a range of political parties, from left to right of the spectrum, properly representing all strands of opinion in the country. They'd have to make common cause to form governments too. Gone would be the days when we had either Tory or Labour elective dictatorships based on the support of 25% of the adult population. I'm hoping very much that we get a chance to vote for a party, or parties, at the next GE who will pledge to end this and renew our democracy. I'm optimistic that we will. However, stuck as we are in a largely Labour v Tory binary choice in terms of who forms a government, I think the demographic evolution of our society spells many a danger for the Tory party and, until the rather unique and extraordinary 2019 election, they had performed anaemically in elections for virtually a quarter of a century. I can see them doing so again at the next one. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2022 7:20:20 GMT
However, Corbynites were just unprofessional buffoons who few could take seriously. There's ample grounds for Labour to offer the interventionist agenda to address inequality through more effective regulation of utilities, tackling things like standing charges of bills for the poor and those on pre-payment meters etc. Ah yes! Corbyn's pathetic vote share of 32% in 2019 means we need to go back to the politics of Brown and Miliband. Perhaps you'd better have a look at the percentage of vote share they got. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 19, 2022 7:24:50 GMT
I really can't see Labour recapturing the WWC on a big scale because the two groups mentioned above are anathema to many of the WWC. It's possible that Labour could be the largest party after the next GE, but in the longer term they are doomed (IMO). Greens will gradually capture more of the woke brigade and we may well see more successful versions of Respect emerging to capture the immigrant-descended vote. Labour are fighting the tides of history. Large scale employment in factories and mines etc has largely gone, and they've accidentally gained these two new groups who have virtually nothing in common. Labour will continue to exist, just as the Liberals do of course and will have periods of resurgence but I think their days of being the alternative natural party of government are numbered. I'm talking 20 or 30 years, not the immediate future, and all IMHO of course. I agree labour has much more of a problem than con trying to get together a voting block. R4 interviewee just noted con have now taken up the centrist tax position occupied by Blair and Brown, which is amusing since they in turn were said to have occupied Thatcher's stance. The tame financier was arguing Con have abandoned a low tax policy which is the only way to make Brexit a success. Without that, it is unsurprising investment in Uk industry is collapsing. His theory would seem to be low tax leads to investment and then ultimately more prosperity than before Brexit, but that the Uk does not have a policy fit for either. I think he is fundamentally wrong and the Uk cannot exist as a tax haven economy, its too big. So the whole rationale for benefit from brexit collapses. He also noted we need interest rises to suppress inflation, but interest cuts to prevent a looming recession. Essentially no scope to do anything useful in the face of rising inflation caused by major shortages of goods and materials. The most recent cause of this is the war in Ukraine, but this is just icing on top of the consequences of other policies. In particular the policy of lockdown closing down the world economy has been a disaster and created this crisis. In our globalised word you simply cannot do that and expect there to be no consequences. Alec, even if you still believe lockdown succeeded in its most optimistic claims to save life it will still end up costing more than was gained. Not least for pensioners who risked most from covid but risk most from recession too. If you believe as I do that all the evidence from places lcokdown never happened is that the outcomes were little worse than where it did, then its soooo obvious it was a disaster. Politicians need to admit to this terrible mistake. You need to accept it. |
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Post by hireton on May 19, 2022 7:27:02 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2022 7:30:26 GMT
What people seem to be afraid to say is that the "anti-woke", zero sum, blame the immigrants, workshy, gay, Muslim etc agenda is identical in every facet apart form its labelling to the far right white supremiscist agenda. It's the same thing.
If 30% of the UK voters are fascists, then that's that. But let's not be confused about what we are saying here.
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2022 7:33:47 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w / colin - that Telegraph story on the UK provding gas and electricity to the EU is typically lopsided. It is true that the UK has a glut of LNG at present, which has dropped the day ahead price here, below that in Europe. This has resulted in UK electricity producers firing up the gas turbines which explains why the electricity interconnectors are also flowing the other way right now. However, the fact that this is happening at all is a reflection of the fact that the UK has very limited gas storage. Ideally we should be filling storage with cheap gas, but we can't, because we neglected to build any. That means consumers won't derive any relief from this temporary situation, and they will not get any relief from the day ahead price drop either, because the vast bulk of energy supplies are fixed in advance. Carfrew covered this in his DT article. I posted a piece by Ed Conway at Sky. Times has more on it today. It boils down to:- UK has LNG terminals and infrastructure, but little gas storage. The Continent has little LNG terminal/infrastructure , but storage ( for gas it now wishes not to buy) So-Uk is acting as an LNG hub and piping gas to the Continent. That pipeline capacity is limited so UK elec generation with cheap LNG produced an exportable excess. Continental storage can help with a reverse flow this winter if UK is short. You have probably read the reports of EU gas plan re Russia-now a phase out to 2027. Funding from the EU Pandemic programme money-and should provide dosh for Hungary to stop them vetoing the oil ban. Times also reports that Finland will refuse to use the euro/rouble exchange dodge ( probably in breach of sanctions) being demanded by Putin ( currently used by Germany, Italy, Hungary and three or four others) -so Russia might cut their gas off as soon as this Friday. |
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2022 7:40:10 GMT
If 30% of the UK voters are fascists, then that's that. You continue to believe that old chap. Its a sure fire way of persuading those folk ( like me) to steer well clear of any Labour Party that you would approve of. Actually I think you would be doing Boris a favour , since he seems to have lost the magic dust. |
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Post by Old Southendian on May 19, 2022 7:48:04 GMT
I really can't see Labour recapturing the WWC on a big scale because the two groups mentioned above are anathema to many of the WWC. It's possible that Labour could be the largest party after the next GE, but in the longer term they are doomed (IMO). Greens will gradually capture more of the woke brigade and we may well see more successful versions of Respect emerging to capture the immigrant-descended vote. Labour are fighting the tides of history. Large scale employment in factories and mines etc has largely gone, and they've accidentally gained these two new groups who have virtually nothing in common. Labour will continue to exist, just as the Liberals do of course and will have periods of resurgence but I think their days of being the alternative natural party of government are numbered. I'm talking 20 or 30 years, not the immediate future, and all IMHO of course. The future as you would like it to be. I think the white working class are maybe not as socially conservative or as anti-union as you think. It's basically the retired that vote Tory. They don't live forever, just seem to. My feeling is that both Tory and Labour are going to struggle in the next few years. I suspect it's only the two-party system that's kept them afloat this long. Even with the two party system, there's clear evidence that both "traditional" Torys and Labour voters are drifting to smaller parties, but we haven't yet reached a moment where the tide fully turns against the major parties. To put it another way, I think you're both right, or at least partially right. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 19, 2022 7:52:20 GMT
Maybe you went to buy some Louboutins… I love them! And if my feet weren't those of a 68 year old woman who has spent a lifetime damaging her feet by wearing inappropriate shoes I would wear them. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 19, 2022 7:53:06 GMT
colin
"Carfrew covered this in his DT article......"
Blimey, has he gone the whole hog and is actually writing for them now??
😉😁
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Post by jimjam on May 19, 2022 7:55:25 GMT
Colin,
I think Domjg has it right that there is an element of that circa 33% who are backward looking socially conservative.
But it would be both lazy and ill-judged to label, even, most Conservative voters as such, whether it it 15% or 20% matters little but not enough to win with just those votes for sure.
I believe what the Tories are seeking to do is remind that part of their voter base that they should not abstain as that will let in Labour and all that entails ....
The more sophisticated Tory vote (if I can put it like that); those voters who prefer small government etc will more likely stick with the Tories even if the so called anti-woke stuff is off-putting.
There is a danger that they will push some of these more liberally inclined Tories away (like clause 28 did for example) but it is an understandable calculation.
I think something along these lines, trying to retain the base, kind of becomes inevitable after over 10 years in office
Labour did a similar thing in the run up to 2010 and almost did enough to cling on stopping the Tory OM of course; fear of the Tories was in essence Labour's campaign.
Seemed to boost the vote share at the end and did stop an OM but at the cost of narrowing the potential pool subsequently as appealing to voters from outside the base starts from a less appealing place.
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