steve
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Post by steve on May 18, 2022 8:00:36 GMT
neilj Our heads of state have been working from home for generations. I bet the heil doesn't demand the various assorted Windsors get out of their palaces and go to a proper office. Not to mention that journalists almost invariably post their contributions from home.
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Post by alec on May 18, 2022 8:02:18 GMT
steve - "Or are you actually implying that around half a million people in the UK of working age are permanently incapable of any work because of covid." Not me - this is what the ONS have found from their covid survey data. So yes, these are the figures you need to start accepting. This is why I keep banging on about covid minimizers. You are denying fact, ignoring data, and pretending there isn't a problem, when multiple data sources are telling us there is.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 18, 2022 8:04:07 GMT
Drove through Abingdon this evening and was dismayed to see that every lamp post in the centre had a Union flag drapped from it with a purple crown in the centre, some has multiple flags in a circle around the post. Wondered if I'd been teleported to East Belfast.. I've been in the Netherlands when they celebrate Koning(in)sdag and yes there's lots of flag waving but somehow it's still relaxed and inclusive and knowingly silly Here the jubilee is already beginning to feel a bit Oswald Mosley with the number and size of the flags just too much. Your posts grow ever more bizarre. The cries of a man who is stuck in a country he hates, surrounded by people he despises. It must be truly awful for you. Erm, don't really think I deserved that Colin just for making an observational post. I don't talk to you like that. Fortunately in the area I live, and in the very town all those flags had been put up a very large part of the population thinks very much like me so I feel perfectly at home thank you. Due to the nature of the local industries and the European school the main children's playground of the town echoes to many different European languages and those from further afield on a Sat morning. It's great. This is Oxfordshire, the county the DM had a disparaging article about a few weeks back because it's apparently so (that stupid word) 'woke'.  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 18, 2022 8:07:18 GMT
colin Just because you don't like the bullshit surrounding the celebrations for our head of state for the achievement of not dying yet doesn't mean you " hate" the country.
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Post by barbara on May 18, 2022 8:09:10 GMT
But having a heart is the start of the path to becoming a socialist - and your starting to show signs of having one.  Sorry to intrude into the bubble of your socialist self satisfaction , but in the real world beyond 'isms , most people "have a heart". As for the All Knowing State , a quick scan of the history of "People's " Republics in action suggests that mistrust of the individual is what their "compassion" really amounts to . Still-I bet you have some great chats at the gates of School Number 1.  So nice to have colin back. We've SO missed all the sarcasm. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 18, 2022 8:18:32 GMT
alec I am doing nothing of the sort the ONS data doesn't imply that 1.3% of the working population are permanently incapable of work subsequent to covid. The ons data suggests that a proportion of those who suffer longer term impacts aren't able to undertake some of their previous activities. However and even in your Cassandra mind set you must acknowledge this " long covid" symptoms are in most instances not totally debilitating and that " long covid" normally applies to periods of a few weeks or months not for bloody ever. I am not denying anything just trying to inject a note of reality in your unremitting stream of consciousness negativity.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 18, 2022 8:23:42 GMT
Sometimes forgotten, but the poorest often suffer even worse real inflation rates than the richest. Also the poorest are often the ones on benefits, which only rose 3.1% this year
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Post by johntel on May 18, 2022 8:27:36 GMT
alec We don't have evidence that 1.3% of the working population aren't available to work because of " long covid" primarily long term post covid symptoms manifest in the same way as other post viral symptoms often such impacts as painful joints a persistent cough changed sense of smell. Which may all be unpleasant but normally don't prevent some gainful employment . Or are you actually implying that around half a million people in the UK of working age are permanently incapable of any work because of covid. Even those studies that acknowledge that in some instances the long term effect of covid can be to reduce the ability to work none suggest that this applies to all or amounts to total incapacity. I suspect the issues associated with for example lack of child care provision , caused by low pay and loss of staff to other areas and because of brexit, the propensity of schools to exclude children exposed to covid and the increased cost of child care when it can be found would account for a significant proportion particularly among younger female workers withdrawing from the employment market. Not feeling that great on top of these considerations doesn't help either. The main symptom of "long covid" is fatigue - and it seems to be affecting middle-aged women the most - pharmaceutical-journal.com/article/feature/long-covid-the-new-public-health-crisisFatigue is also a symptom associated with stress and depression - again something that seems to affect middle-aged women the most - www.stylist.co.uk/health/women-antidepressants-pandemic/511203#:~:text=Past%20data%20from%20Public%20Health,adult%20population)%20were%20prescribed%20antidepressants. The workplace shortages are therefore most likely to affecting heath and social care, education sectors etc. disproportionately. Unfortunately this a vicious circle, because it will put the people in those professions under even more pressure. |
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Post by wb61 on May 18, 2022 8:35:20 GMT
Someone Mentioned the Schleswig-Holstein question and I remembered that Lord Palmerston is reported to have said: "Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business – the Prince Consort, who is dead – a German professor, who has gone mad – and I, who have forgotten all about it." I was in Schleswig- Holstein in September 2016 as part of a two week trip with the first week in Neustadt (visiting nearby Hamburg) the second week staying in the beautiful town of Schleswig ( the Schloss and museum is well worth a visit as is the church). Apart from being embarrassed about the Black Thursday vote (see what I did there) it was a fantastic trip meeting wonderful people, with my group the nationalities included were Polish, Latvian, Italian, Romanian, Portuguese and Spanish. We discovered that because there is a large ethnic Danish minority, they are guaranteed a certain representation in the Landtag. If anyone should go there close to the Danish border is the town of Flensburg, I visited the Flensburger brewery, go by all means but don't make the mistake that the beer is of similar ABV to your local pint or you will come to regret it  |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 18, 2022 8:35:29 GMT
I wonder if the Bank of England was behind these Downing Street parties that Johnson didn't know anything about and then was duped into innocently attending?
His defenders have accused this lockdown cavorting in the seat of power as the work of out of touch civil servants. Now Sunak is similarly suffering. His faultless stewardship of the nation's finances and economy, for he is our shepherd guiding us through the cost of living crisis and "pandemic aftershocks" (genius spinning that soundbite), is now being undermined by a "useless" Governor of the Bank of England.
Bailey and his unaccountable bureaucrats are visiting hellish inflation upon us all, making Sunak's valiant shepherding almost in vain. Maybe Bailey conned Sunak into having that slice of birthday cake as he diverted briefly from Number 11 to the Treasury via Johnson's knees up in Number 10. Sunak is our shepherd and was on his way to the Treasury to serve the nation and Bailey asked him to pick up some important papers from Number 10 maybe. It's all plausible. Bailey knew Sunak would be lured into cake partaking and brief revelry. Dom was suitably informed for media leaking purposes. This is all starting to make sense to me. I believe the court press is on to this too.
Meanwhile the former Governor of the BoE, Sir Mervyn King, is looking on with a wry smile. While Toryland was piling into Brown and Darling for visiting the 2008 global financial crash on the country, old Merv in Threadneedle Street was getting a nice soft ride on it all. All down to Labour back then. Merv the Swerv was an impotent onlooker as the banking system went into meltdown. I mean how was he meant to know that the banks were running out of money. Crikey, he was only at the top of the whole system. It was Darling's baby, not his. He was only there to safeguard bonuses and share dividends. Thatcher's deregulation got off scot free too.
The Sun said it was 13 years of social democracy wot dun it.
Maybe Blair's behind this current cost of living crisis. GB News thinks he just might be. Just a thought.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 18, 2022 8:58:17 GMT
Blimey, I'm going to have to have a lie-down in a darkened room. An outbreak of common sense amongst centre-left parties. Stories emerging of a tacit agreement between Labour and the Lib Dems in the forthcoming Wakefield and Honiton by elections that they will stand candidates but only campaign seriously in the seat where either party is most likely to win. Labour get a clear run in Wakefield and the Lib Dems in Honiton. Olly won't be happy with this disgraceful denial of a full democratic choice though. Olly wants the Lib Dems and Labour to eat each other's lunch so the Tory candidate wins. That's Olly's version of democracy. My advice to Starmer and Davey. Keep disappointing Olly. www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/17/tories-fight-to-hold-off-labour-and-lib-dems-in-crucial-june-byelections |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 18, 2022 9:02:24 GMT
It appears we might want to look at Romford constituency
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Post by jayblanc on May 18, 2022 9:32:00 GMT
Someone Mentioned the Schleswig-Holstein question and I remembered that Lord Palmerston is reported to have said: "Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business – the Prince Consort, who is dead – a German professor, who has gone mad – and I, who have forgotten all about it." I was in Schleswig- Holstein in September 2016 as part of a two week trip with the first week in Neustadt (visiting nearby Hamburg) the second week staying in the beautiful town of Schleswig ( the Schloss and museum is well worth a visit as is the church). Apart from being embarrassed about the Black Thursday vote (see what I did there) it was a fantastic trip meeting wonderful people, with my group the nationalities included were Polish, Latvian, Italian, Romanian, Portuguese and Spanish. We discovered that because there is a large ethnic Danish minority, they are guaranteed a certain representation in the Landtag. If anyone should go there close to the Danish border is the town of Flensburg, I visited the Flensburger brewery, go by all means but don't make the mistake that the beer is of similar ABV to your local pint or you will come to regret it Schleswig-Holstein proves that the actual answer to the Schleswig-Holstein question, and by induction most other 'ethnic territorial disputes', is to ask the people who live there what they want to do. So successful with Schleswig-Holstein that people forgot what the question was in the first place. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 18, 2022 9:34:02 GMT
Having good and timely information on community infection rates is one of the most important aspects of risk management for everyone, but particularly the immunocompromised.
R now back up to 1.0s and 1.1s. Presumably the new strain you were talking about. However daily cases are about 1/3 their March peak and while its a rising trend, we don know and cant really tell yet how big. Despite being down to 1/3, that is still pretty much in record numbers since the spring 2020 original outbreak.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 18, 2022 9:34:42 GMT
And here is my cumulative plot of zoe cases, if i can get it to post. It runs from mid 2020 when this data series started. Note, deaths within 28 days of positive test are initially ploted raw in black but then switch to deathsx20 because there are a lot fewer of them by May 21. Also deaths still not to scale with the other plots, but you can see how they track. Unfortunately, while the peaks in deaths are much lower, there is a constant steady level so total is not nearly so much reduced as this might suggest. From time to time they changed the age groups they reported, so these plots continue with the best fit new groups.
Currently Zoe estimate about 1.7 million people in the UK have symptomatic covid. This compares to their estimate on the old data set of 2.2 million with covid at the spring 2020 peak , aged 20-70 only. Thats pretty similar to numbers this spring, though it wasnt then uniform across the country and higher in S england than north.
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Post by jimjam on May 18, 2022 9:43:04 GMT
Colin,
I was never impressed by Lord King who did not tighten monetary policy (higher interest rates) from 2003-2007.
He then later claimed Labour spent too much but his inaction suggests he did not think so at the time.
Sadly, I think he allowed his political affiliations to lend his support to the volte farce Osborne and Cameron made after the financial crash.
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Post by lens on May 18, 2022 9:50:54 GMT
This is why I keep banging on about covid minimizers. You are denying fact, ignoring data, and pretending there isn't a problem, when multiple data sources are telling us there is. I really wasn't going to respond any more to your overly pessimistic posts, but I feel forced..... Yes, there still is a Covid problem .... no denial. But get it in perspective. Deaths from Covid still happen - but are dwarfed by those from Cancer, stroke, heart disease to name just three. I fully agree with keeping the ONS programme going to get an accurate perspective on the countrys Covid situation, but the lateral flow tests were always so unreliable that with case rates at a low level (as evidenced by ONS figures) they cease to have any point. The pessimists were crying that once "free" tests were ended by the government, together with full easing of restrictions "just watch the cases and deaths shoot up!" It didn't happen. If anything the downward trend accelerated. Long Covid? Again, I wouldn't deny it - but many illnesses have long term health effects. Why this relentless focus on Covid, seemingly to the shutting out of any other health matters? Technically, my wife may have been registered as "a long Covid statistic" - but she returned to work after only a couple of weeks. Much quicker than when I had a heart operation, or she previously had a broken bone. And what you don't seem to acknowledge is that Peter has to be robbed to pay Paul. Spend a couple of billion each month on "free" Covid tests and it's a couple of billion less to be spent on other health matters. That's stupid, if the latter gives more benefit per £. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 18, 2022 9:55:51 GMT
Serious question on Tory impropriety completely ignored by the UK press the investigation has been by the New York Times.
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Post by robbiealive on May 18, 2022 9:57:57 GMT
Drove through Abingdon this evening and was dismayed to see that every lamp post in the centre had a Union flag drapped from it with a purple crown in the centre, some has multiple flags in a circle around the post. Wondered if I'd been teleported to East Belfast.. I've been in the Netherlands when they celebrate Koning(in)sdag and yes there's lots of flag waving but somehow it's still relaxed and inclusive and knowingly silly Here the jubilee is already beginning to feel a bit Oswald Mosley with the number and size of the flags just too much. I told you Abingdon was ghastly. Perhaps some denizens dislike having a very right-on Lib-Dem MP. Layla Moran really swam againsy the tide in 2017 & '19. I know the seat is mainly West Oxford, but even so. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2022 10:05:21 GMT
As you say Bailey can't do anything about this I didn't say that-he did. One of his predecessors , Lord King , thinks otherwise :- "“I think central banks around the world have made serious mistakes in not acting much sooner . . . including ours. “The idea that interest rates of 1 per cent are going to have much impact on that inflation rate is really very strange,” he continued. He said that most people in Britain will be worse off because of higher energy and food prices. “All that we can do is try to ensure that those who are worst hit by it are protected through the benefit system,” he said." Times. Perhaps Bailey should have listened to his former Chief economist, Andy Haldane who said , a year ago, that inflation would get worse and be " “significant and persistent”. Perhaps the BoE should have stopped using QE to covertly fund Sunak's deficit , much earlier, and raised interest rates earlier ? Haldane said yesterday that the situation now wold be " very sharp and painful for many households" So, is old Merv saying that he would have put up interest rates faster and higher than the Bailey regime? If so, that would have fed through to mortgage payments far quicker than it has so far, and would really be having a dramatic effect on a huge number of people, who have very large mortgages on very expensive houses, taken out in an era where many people have not known anything but cheap, accessible funds for buying a house. They therefore think it has always been like that, and would be completely unprepared for a dramatic increase in their monthly mortgage payments when they have to renegotiate their terms. Coupled with all the energy, food and other increasing costs they face, that would really make the upwardly mobile middle class squeal and would, I think, spell real trouble for CON VI. As it happens, this may well be coming about anyway, albeit perhaps in slower time. The interest rate rises so far have been almost comical in their scope and effect, but if they really do start ratcheting up in a big way, the din from mortgage holders will become deafening. Not an issue for most of the UKPR2 demographic, I suspect, and I won't be complaining if my five bob in the post office earns a few more farthings, but in the wider world, the repercussions could be profound. |
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Post by wb61 on May 18, 2022 10:05:55 GMT
deleted as Robbiealive has done
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Post by robbiealive on May 18, 2022 10:06:21 GMT
I should just ignore Colin when he's being silly. He & Mercian frequently coms out with this Lefties-hate-their-country-only- righties-are-patriots crap. Cheap Daily-Mail rhetoric. Revealing when people use it, but not to be taken seriously. I love England esp Scotland! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2022 10:10:22 GMT
Erm, don't really think I deserved that Colin just for making an observational post. Yes-you "observed" that " Here the jubilee is already beginning to feel a bit Oswald Mosley" ! |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 18, 2022 10:14:48 GMT
robbiealive Similarly my favourite part of England is Corfu. Cricket on the green and everything.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2022 10:17:31 GMT
a huge number of people, who have very large mortgages on very expensive houses, taken out in an era where many people have not known anything but cheap, accessible funds for buying a house. Yep-perhaps someone should have told them that the world post 2008 is not normal and not sustainable. ? That Ultra Low interest rates , and oceans of Central Bank "liquidity" via QE were supposed to encourage investment & jobs-not house price rises and cheap mortgages. |
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Post by robbiealive on May 18, 2022 10:19:44 GMT
"Here in Remain-land we string up Brexiteers from the lamp posts." As humour not really in the best of taste I think. In the interests of group harmony I have deleted that comment. We anhedonics always suffer from stress during periods of enforced jollification. |
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Post by wb61 on May 18, 2022 10:20:24 GMT
As to the Jubilee, I don't understand the strong emotions that are involved in an attachment or resentment to a person and family which for most people is only known third hand. I am, politically, inclined towards republicanism but it is an intellectual position and I cannot find myself exercised (or should that be exorcised I am never sure) either way whilst the monarchy remains constitutional and as Walter Bagehot, in "The English Constitution" described dignified. His thesis being that two parts were necessary to the constitution, ‘one to excite and preserve the reverence of the population’ and the other to ‘employ that homage in the work of government’. The first related to the monarchy and pomp and the second described as (laughingly in light of the current incumbents) ‘efficient’.
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alurqa
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Freiburg im Breisgau's flag
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Post by alurqa on May 18, 2022 10:20:46 GMT
Ok - undemocratic because we couldn't vote for or against any of their various presidents or the commission. Yes there is a fig-leaf parliament which we could vote for (and overwhelmingly UKIP last time) but it has no meaningful powers. But even in the UK you don't vote for the Prime Minister. You don't have a say on who is in the cabinet. And you certainly don't have any input into the construction of the Upper House. Even in the US you don't vote for the president, you vote for someone else to vote for them. The European Parliament has gained many powers over the years, and it often has a final say over any legislation. Take brexit for example. Johnson's oven ready deal would not have happened without the approval of the EP. The EP was an essential part of the process. Sclerotic because it can't get much to happen fast in an emergency because of the need to get 27 countries' agreement. A recent example is, as I understand it, Hungary's veto on an EU-wide ban on Russian oil etc. Of course in my opinion the EU shouldn't be making such decisions anyway, and I respect Hungary's stance even if I'd preferred a different decision. If Hungary holds out and the EU cannot agree we will be in the same place as if the EU didn't exist. Each nation will have to decide how to respond. However, if they can convince Hungary to comply the potency is so much greater. As I said previously the EU provides a forum where all its members can decide how best to proceed, and by having a half-million person economy walking in lock-step is a very powerful force globally. I honestly think you miss the point. Everyone takes part in the EU voluntarily, and everyone's influence is therefore greatly magnified. Look at what this means for the UK now. We don't want to follow EU rules, because that makes us an ineffective vassal state. So we want a UK-specific quality mark -- UKCA. But who will use it? If you are a small business and only trade in the UK it may make sense, but if trade at all in the EU possessing the CE mark means your products are respected by c. 500 million potential customers. Why would anybody in the real world not want that? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 18, 2022 10:22:32 GMT
Talking of 'slow inevitable decline', did you take a look at the graph above that Hireton posted? That's just the brexit effect on business investment, but the same picture appears all over the place. The graph of UK car production is exactly the same shape, but even starker. We're on a slippery downward slope. So let's sit back and do nothing, shall we, in the expectation that something will turn up? That sounds like the right recipe for turning a declining business around.
The problem is that the obvious and maybe only step we could take to reverse brexit decline is to reverse brexit and rejoin the EU on whatever terms they will allow. Johnson for one is still utterly in denial. Probably the best thing for the HoL to do would be to sit on their hands and let him pass Truss's paper tiger act, and let him swing before the next GE. labour tried sitting on its hands over brexit in the last election and lost. It doesnt enthuse remain supporters. Labour will have exactly this same problem at the next election, to wholeheartedy go for closer relations to the EU, to call for rejoin, to support the status quo. Johnson will say brexit is nowhere near complete and he has to stay in power to make sure labour does not reverse it.
His strategy will be rejoin remains divided because labour fears to support it. Or labour supports rejoin and enthuses leave to back con agan. rerun of whole brexit saga.
Grim picture with COVID in North Korea. Lockdown doesnt work... At least in the Uk the covid epidemic of repeated successive waves happened anyway so we acquired that necessary immunity.
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Post by Mark on May 18, 2022 10:24:06 GMT
Re-the jubilee.
At heart, I am a republican, in the sense that I would prefer the monarchy didn't exist, but, have never (and likely will never) campaign on this issue as, for the most part, it is an irrelevance and there are far, far more important issues.
For the record, I think that Mrs Windsor has done a very good job in her role.
I have absolutely no idea when the jubilee is, nor do I particularly care. If people here want to hold a street party, then fine, let them have one and enjoy it.
I may even show my face should such an event take place, not from any feeling about anything royal...but, because cake. And vodka.
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