steve
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Post by steve on May 17, 2022 22:18:22 GMT
Out of nothing in particular if Rayleigh and Wickford constituency happened to be available in a by election and if the liberal democrats happened to win and it was duplicated at a general election the liberal democrats would win every seat in England.
Of course there is no possibility of a by election in Rayleigh and Wickford because their beloved MP Mark Gino Francois would have absolutely no reason to be replaced.
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Post by EmCat on May 17, 2022 22:18:58 GMT
bedknobsandboomstick: "31,000 majority for Con in Rayleigh and Wickford. Just in case anyone was wondering. For no particular reason.'in one of the safest seats. Looking at the Wiki page for the constituency, and the incumbent got an impressive 72.6% of the vote. However, with a turnout of 69.5%, that means that for one of the safest seats going, only a fraction over 50% of the voter roll voted for them. (50.45% for those keeping count) At the other end of the scale, Bury North, with a majority of 105, 46.2% of the vote and 68.1% turnout means that MP was only supported by 31.46% of the electorate |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 17, 2022 22:25:14 GMT
I've just realised that this was the first year since 1985 that I forgot the anniversary of the murder of my friend and colleague Yvonne.
In some respects I am pleased ,it's taken a very long time to put that particular demon to bed.
I still miss her.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2022 22:53:51 GMT
Barmy UK covid policy: 1) Covid is a notifiable disease 2) In England, you can only qualify for a free covid test if you work in a health or care setting and have symptoms, or are in specific customer facing roles if asymptomatic. 3) The vast majority of people therefore have to use a paid for covid test. 4) From the government covid reporting website: “You cannot use this service to report results from a test kit you’ve paid for.” Go figure. Having good and timely information on community infection rates is one of the most important aspects of risk management for everyone, but particularly the immunocompromised. I see so many LoC types on here and elsewhere that seem happy to leave the vulnerable hung out to dry. I expect this kind of shit from Conservatives (although I know some of them care about this) but why so many others are happy to accept this government's uselessness on covid leaves me bewildered. , I think your focus, research, analysis and concern regarding COVID is admirable. It may well be that, come October/November we will see a resurgence of cases, possibly via a new variant, and possibly even vaccine-resistant. In which case, the fact much of our research/monitoring capability has been stood down might well bite us in the bum. BUT, it seems to me that, whether through conditioning or fatigue or both, the population has decided that COVID is now history. They have smelt freedom from restrictions in their nostrils and are embracing it with alacrity - Football grounds full, all manner of concerts, shows, plays, films etc. playing to big crowds. It's as if the nation has decided it needs a damn good party as a reward for two years of gloom. I expect to see huge crowds for the upcoming jubilee events. Anecdotally, I still automatically put on a mask whenever I enter a shop or public place as a matter of course, but I am in a tiny minority now. Probably no more than 5%. So most people, rightly or wrongly, think it's done. If things do start getting a bit racy again come the autumn, though, and any new restrictions are proposed, (albeit I think the signs would have to be pretty alarming for that to happen given the current administration), the public might well need a lot more convincing next time. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 17, 2022 22:56:59 GMT
Yes, you are right. In my defence, even last year the SNP were using a Survation poll from 2016 to justify their opposition to Trident www.snp.org/tridentfacts/ so they were obviously implying then that opinions hadn't changed. |
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Post by robbiealive on May 17, 2022 23:00:53 GMT
I see so many LoC types on here and elsewhere that seem happy to leave the vulnerable hung out to dry. I expect this kind of shit from Conservatives (although I know some of them care about this) but why so many others are happy to accept this government's uselessness on covid leaves me bewildered. Who are these happy LOC types. Long covid is a scourge & has rendered hundreds of thousands, many of them women in their 50s & 60s, in a state of disability: many can't work & as by definition there are no longtitudinal studies of their condition they don't know if they will ever recover. It's terrifying for them, It's like mass ME, only worse. The neglect of these people is shameful from every point of view. I give some sort of support to those I know in this cayegory n those who are still shielding. What else am I supposed to do. Meanwhile we have Vardy v Rooney, Depp v whatshername & Harry & Markle. I have no idea about any of these stories as celeb watching bores me rigid, except that the public is fed with endless crap about them & appears to lap it up. |
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Post by robbiealive on May 17, 2022 23:13:38 GMT
Ps, I do read what you say about Covid on here, though I skip the NIP stuff as I have no more interest in Brexit Proceduralism than in the Schleswig-Holstein question, which it closely resembles.
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mercian
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Post by mercian on May 17, 2022 23:23:14 GMT
Yes, membership of an undemocratic sclerotic organisation which will gradually impoverish everyone in it because of over-bureaucracy and slow reaction speeds to changing events. And real world examples that lead you to these conclusions are what? Ok - undemocratic because we couldn't vote for or against any of their various presidents or the commission. Yes there is a fig-leaf parliament which we could vote for (and overwhelmingly UKIP last time) but it has no meaningful powers. Sclerotic because it can't get much to happen fast in an emergency because of the need to get 27 countries' agreement. A recent example is, as I understand it, Hungary's veto on an EU-wide ban on Russian oil etc. Of course in my opinion the EU shouldn't be making such decisions anyway, and I respect Hungary's stance even if I'd preferred a different decision. If it had stayed as a free trade organisation I would not have a problem. However there is that clause in the Treaty of Rome about 'ever closer union', which is the way they have been heading ever since. They seem to be trying to recreate the Holy Roman Empire, which none of the countries now part of the UK were ever part of, nor wanted to be as far as I know. In some ways countries within the EU already have less power than US states. An obvious example is the death penalty. US states are free to choose whether or not to have a death penalty, and what form it should take. European nations can't join the EU unless they renounce it. In my opinion certain crimes deserve the death penalty. I haven't seen a recent poll on this, but a substantial proportion of the UK public agree. |
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mercian
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Post by mercian on May 17, 2022 23:28:31 GMT
Drove through Abingdon this evening and was dismayed to see that every lamp post in the centre had a Union flag drapped from it with a purple crown in the centre, some has multiple flags in a circle around the post. Wondered if I'd been teleported to East Belfast.. I've been in the Netherlands when they celebrate Koning(in)sdag and yes there's lots of flag waving but somehow it's still relaxed and inclusive and knowingly silly Here the jubilee is already beginning to feel a bit Oswald Mosley with the number and size of the flags just too much. It's a unique occasion. No monarch has ever reigned for seventy years before, and none are likely to in the next hundred years or so at least, when you look at the next in line. Charles may get 20 years if he's lucky. By then William will be in his 50s and if he gets say 40 years, George will be around 60 when he steps up. It's a bit more than just an annual event. It's a shame you can't see that. |
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mercian
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Post by mercian on May 17, 2022 23:30:50 GMT
Barmy UK covid policy: 1) Covid is a notifiable disease 2) In England, you can only qualify for a free covid test if you work in a health or care setting and have symptoms, or are in specific customer facing roles if asymptomatic. 3) The vast majority of people therefore have to use a paid for covid test. 4) From the government covid reporting website: “You cannot use this service to report results from a test kit you’ve paid for.” Go figure. Having good and timely information on community infection rates is one of the most important aspects of risk management for everyone, but particularly the immunocompromised. I see so many LoC types on here and elsewhere that seem happy to leave the vulnerable hung out to dry. I expect this kind of shit from Conservatives (although I know some of them care about this) but why so many others are happy to accept this government's uselessness on covid leaves me bewildered. Some of us have been prudent and have a few free test kits in stock. They used to give them out at Tesco and I refused a few, but we've got loads left. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2022 5:39:30 GMT
I was about to make the same remark as Crossbar. The site is now getting excited about false Twitter squalls. A Wells, to protect himself, discouraged this stuff n i think he was right. Let us at least wait until news is definite. If you were a real student of UKPR2 you would know that. the thing s A Wells discouraged are the things they like here. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 18, 2022 6:05:27 GMT
Inflation rises to 9% the highest level for 40 years and likely to rise further
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Post by alec on May 18, 2022 6:24:36 GMT
@isa -thankyou. And congratulations for holding out on being sensible on masks too.
Sadly, we won't have to wait until the autumn for the next wave, in my opinion. It's already starting, and I suspect within the month we'll be seeing sharp rises in cases.
Parts of the US are already experiencing rising cases and hospitalisations, with BA2.12.2, and in the UK we have already seen BA4 and BA5 cases rising, with a confirmed growth advantage over BA2. These are from a low base, but we've been here before and know exactly where it goes.
I think there will be a field day for psychologists analysing why so many people want to forget, and it isn't just in this country, but when we already have 1.3% of the working population unavailable because of long covid, and clear evidence that your chances are suffering this are the same, regardless of whether it's your first or subsequent infection, eventually we will wake up to what we are allowing, but by then for many it will be too late.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2022 6:44:47 GMT
I think there will be a field day for psychologists analysing why so many people want to forget Do you really need to be a psychologist? |
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Post by alec on May 18, 2022 6:45:12 GMT
mercian - that misses the point. It isn't just the availability of tests, but the fact that, once positive, so many people are unable to register their case with the UKHSA and NHS. That means we are flying blind in terms of the health statistics, but worse than that, what happens to the individual who tests positive, contracts long covid, then needs sick leave and/or benefits, but her health records don't show any covid infection? Your treatment and navigation of the benefits system will be greatly harmed because there is no way for you to add a covid infection to your health records.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 18, 2022 6:45:23 GMT
Re the inflation rate of 9%, worth remembering thanks to the Conservatives going back on their word to keep to the triple lock state pensions has only risen 3.1% this year
Benefits have also only risen by 3.1%
These groups are the ones who are already struggling, it can only get worse
Even those in work will see a very real pay cut. Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) was 5.4%, and growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 4.0% in December 2021 to February 2022, also worth noting that bonusses are tilted to the financial sector
Public sector wage growth was just 1.9%!
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jib
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Post by jib on May 18, 2022 6:45:31 GMT
@isa -thankyou. And congratulations for holding out on being sensible on masks too. Sadly, we won't have to wait until the autumn for the next wave, in my opinion. It's already starting, and I suspect within the month we'll be seeing sharp rises in cases. Parts of the US are already experiencing rising cases and hospitalisations, with BA2.12.2, and in the UK we have already seen BA4 and BA5 cases rising, with a confirmed growth advantage over BA2. These are from a low base, but we've been here before and know exactly where it goes. I think there will be a field day for psychologists analysing why so many people want to forget, and it isn't just in this country, but when we already have 1.3% of the working population unavailable because of long covid, and clear evidence that your chances are suffering this are the same, regardless of whether it's your first or subsequent infection, eventually we will wake up to what we are allowing, but by then for many it will be too late. , sensible views on this as always. Those struck down by long COVID are of course suffering now, the long term impacts of this disease in terms of future dementia or heart disease is equally worrying. The attitude of some to being infected, and then subsequently re-infected, is a mixture of inevitability, naïvety and wishful thinking. |
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Post by moby on May 18, 2022 7:00:37 GMT
How many Huns do you know who also support Scottish independence 
While there were few responses for some of the smaller clubs (43% of the sample weren't interested in football), the VI of the fans was -
Motherwell : Yes 63% : No 25%
Kilmarnock : Yes 60% : No 40%
Partick Thistle : Yes 60% : No 0%
Celtic : Yes 48% : No 40%
Rangers : Yes 45% : No 41%
Dundee Utd : Yes 44% : No 50%
Hearts : Yes 42% : No 45%
Hibs : Yes 40% : No 45%
ICT : Yes 30% : No 50%
St Mirren : Yes 25% : No 75%
Aberdeen : Yes 17% : No 50%
St Johnstone : Yes 0% : No 100%
Ross County : Yes 0% : No 50%
Other : Yes 46% : No 42%
Still, why let data get in the way of ignorant stereotyping?
A picture can be worth more than a thousand polls 😉Perhaps you can source some data though which indicates all the saltires have been confiscated by the Spanish police.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 18, 2022 7:10:04 GMT
Given that most of those suffering from long term implications were already economically inactive because of age it's entirely possible that covid as an illness has had no impact at all on the economy. While covid response ,including effectively ending preventative health care almost certainly has. Had we not intervened at all, then covid would have ended much faster. Obviously that alone would have reduced the economic impact. if we had adopted the swedish model that people only stay home if they have symptoms of covid, though they asked people to work from home if possible, cut out unnecessary journeys and introduced restrictions on mass meetings, wider spacings in cafes, but really totally closed very little, then impact on industry would have been minimal. The working population would have been minimally affected by covid illness, mostly in the oldest workers needing 2 or 3 weeks off work, but this would have been a one off with repeat illness being milder. All in all a big surge of cases in spring 2020, but that would have seen the worst of it over (as indeed arguably it did anyway).
Yes, the big issue would have been hospital load in the first wave made up of people largely over pension age, but we did introduce a one month lockdown, which very quicky dealt with the overload and should have ended as soon as cases fell- which had already happened after a fortnight. Arguably, had we not deliberately caused the supermarket cram stocking up for lockdown, then we would never have seen the 1 Aprill peak which we did, and lockdown wouldnt have been needed at all. The plan for lockdown was a self fulfilling prophecy creating that spike in cases.
The Swedes found that they were forced to close industry because international trade was disrupted, so they couldnt import parts. So its true one country alone was unable to avoid a lot of lockdown consequences which spilled over from others. But had the world chosen a no lockdown policy, then economic disruption would have been minimised. Presumaby there would still have been a lot of demand for medical services, which might have caused a mini boom.
Inflation is officially today at 9%. Current UK index tends to be lower than that used in the 70s, so by comparison we would presumably be in double dgits now on the old index. A random page here tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate suggests US 8.3%. EU 7.5%, Russia 18%, Japan 1.2%. So the UK is maybe 1% above Europe and US, do we attribute that element to Brexit?
How much do we attribute to lockdown policy? There are lots of economic shortages this has caused, but it is also true an underlying cause is a fossil fuel shortage. This is significantly caused because world gvernments had ordered the discontinuation of its use, and so development investment had majorly ceased. Closing down the world economies for a couple of years created a drop in demand which hid any developing shortages, so as demand resumed shortages immedately developed. Demand isnt very elastic, so prices rocketed.
So of the 8% should we attribute 6% to lockdown policy, and 2% to energy policy? Suggestions?
What is the health harm of 6% inflation? (equivalent to a 6% NHS budget cut, home care cut, heating cut, food cut for vulnerable people?) How many will die from that?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 18, 2022 7:26:49 GMT
We know energy producers are making a fortune right now- is this pure short term supply and demand or a long term supply and demand where a few companies and individuals control supply of a dwindling resource and greater demand? Its a temporary issue, caused by a deliberate world policy to cease using fossil fuesl and therefore a halt in develping new ones. Its purely a man made shortage. I wouldnt be suprised if oil company boards have been sitting waiting for the inevitable shortage to hit and their 'windfall' but anticipated profit surge to arrive. You would have thought that. But governments chose to 'leave it to the market'. I refer you back to the fuel company boards waiting in glee for the inevitable profits to arrive. Not in the interest of the market to prevent a fuel shortage. The Uk government made noises about maintaining farm subsidy, but basically it is is phasing it out. Obviously it is, it doesnt believe in subsidy for anything. Brexit means falling food production. The price inflation and economic disruption in the 70s was caused by a political loss of contro over oil producing countries. Which then out up their prices. It was a man made crsis. This time too its a man made crisis because we have chosen to create a shortage of fossil fuels wihout providing repacements. many must have understood they will make a lot of mney from this. The case for windfall taxes on fuel companies is overwhelming. Whereas its absurd to subsidise consumer energy bills now by loading that cost back onto those consumers in the future. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 18, 2022 7:28:52 GMT
According to a poll in the daily express 94% of brexitanian respondents don't think they got the Brexit they voted for. Which of course was the primary flaw in the Brexit plan( other than it being fundamentally ridiculous of course) that there was in fact no plan for Brexit other than leaving the European union , any old crap that happened subsequently was possible as we've seen. The primary issue of not knowing what you were voting for strikes again. Attachment Deleted |
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Post by birdseye on May 18, 2022 7:28:57 GMT
Barmy UK covid policy: 1) Covid is a notifiable disease 2) In England, you can only qualify for a free covid test if you work in a health or care setting and have symptoms, or are in specific customer facing roles if asymptomatic. 3) The vast majority of people therefore have to use a paid for covid test. 4) From the government covid reporting website: “You cannot use this service to report results from a test kit you’ve paid for.” Go figure. Having good and timely information on community infection rates is one of the most important aspects of risk management for everyone, but particularly the immunocompromised. I see so many LoC types on here and elsewhere that seem happy to leave the vulnerable hung out to dry. I expect this kind of shit from Conservatives (although I know some of them care about this) but why so many others are happy to accept this government's uselessness on covid leaves me bewildered. Perfectly rational to a civil servant. The data from the reporting website is only useful for saying how many people have reported a test. It doesnt say how many have the infection because there are large numbers who are asympomatic, and others who dont bother with a test anyway. Lateral flow is not that reliable even for the approved tests - if you allow reports from tests made anywhere, some of which will be fraudulent, the data is worth even less. And what would you do with the data even if it was accurate? Its irrelevant to the immunocompromised since infection risk is hugely variable place to place, situation to situation.
The ONS do a much more reliable survey. Maybe we should junk the reporting system and save money by firing the civil servants involved. Instead I suspect the system will continue long after covid has become a memory.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2022 7:29:23 GMT
Socialism isn't a pre requisite for thinking that was insensitive ,crass and detached from the reality of ordinary lives.   Sorry to intrude into the bubble of your socialist self satisfaction  , but in the real world beyond 'isms , most people "have a heart". As for the All Knowing State , a quick scan of the history of "People's " Republics in action suggests that mistrust of the individual is what their "compassion" really amounts to . Still-I bet you have some great chats at the gates of School Number 1.   |
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2022 7:42:31 GMT
As you say Bailey can't do anything about this I didn't say that-he did. One of his predecessors , Lord King , thinks otherwise :- "“I think central banks around the world have made serious mistakes in not acting much sooner . . . including ours. “The idea that interest rates of 1 per cent are going to have much impact on that inflation rate is really very strange,” he continued. He said that most people in Britain will be worse off because of higher energy and food prices. “All that we can do is try to ensure that those who are worst hit by it are protected through the benefit system,” he said." Times. Perhaps Bailey should have listened to his former Chief economist, Andy Haldane who said , a year ago, that inflation would get worse and be " “significant and persistent”. Perhaps the BoE should have stopped using QE to covertly fund Sunak's deficit , much earlier, and raised interest rates earlier ? Haldane said yesterday that the situation now wold be " very sharp and painful for many households" REports today that Sunak is going to respond with up to £600 ( a number with a familiar ring !) in July. I have an awful feeling that even that wont keep many afloat. The big question is how persistent this will be and whether an inflationary wage rise response follows. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 18, 2022 7:47:32 GMT
alec We don't have evidence that 1.3% of the working population aren't available to work because of " long covid" primarily long term post covid symptoms manifest in the same way as other post viral symptoms often such impacts as painful joints a persistent cough changed sense of smell. Which may all be unpleasant but normally don't prevent some gainful employment . Or are you actually implying that around half a million people in the UK of working age are permanently incapable of any work because of covid. Even those studies that acknowledge that in some instances the long term effect of covid can be to reduce the ability to work none suggest that this applies to all or amounts to total incapacity. I suspect the issues associated with for example lack of child care provision , caused by low pay and loss of staff to other areas and because of brexit, the propensity of schools to exclude children exposed to covid and the increased cost of child care when it can be found would account for a significant proportion particularly among younger female workers withdrawing from the employment market. Not feeling that great on top of these considerations doesn't help either.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2022 7:49:52 GMT
Drove through Abingdon this evening and was dismayed to see that every lamp post in the centre had a Union flag drapped from it with a purple crown in the centre, some has multiple flags in a circle around the post. Wondered if I'd been teleported to East Belfast.. I've been in the Netherlands when they celebrate Koning(in)sdag and yes there's lots of flag waving but somehow it's still relaxed and inclusive and knowingly silly Here the jubilee is already beginning to feel a bit Oswald Mosley with the number and size of the flags just too much. Your posts grow ever more bizarre. The cries of a man who is stuck in a country he hates, surrounded by people he despises. It must be truly awful for you. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 18, 2022 7:54:09 GMT
Now we know, the reason we have such high inflation is not rising fuel costs nor the Ukraine crisis nor Covud or even Brexit, it's because some Bank of England staff are working from home!
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Post by moby on May 18, 2022 7:54:17 GMT
According to a poll in the daily express 94% of brexitanian respondents don't think they got the Brexit they voted for. Which of course was the primary flaw in the Brexit plan( other than it being fundamentally ridiculous of course) that there was in fact no plan for Brexit other than leaving the European union , any old crap that happened subsequently was possible as we've seen. The primary issue of not knowing what you were voting for strikes again. <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> Prime Minister you must be furious with whoever signed up to a deal this bad.....  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 18, 2022 7:55:56 GMT
alec The ONS do a very reliable survey of tens of thousands of participants . Faith and I have been providing blood and swab samples to them every month for nearly two years now. This sort of randomised survey is more effective as an indicator of spread than self administered lft primarily by those who either believe they are infected or are required to test. But I agree that for those who do test all data should be recorded.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 18, 2022 7:59:35 GMT
Now we know, the reason we have such high inflation is not rising fuel costs nor the Ukraine crisis nor Covud or even Brexit, it's because some Bank of England staff are working from home! That's some seriously, pathetically desperate deflection. |
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, but in the real world beyond 'isms , most people "have a heart".
