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Post by crossbat11 on May 11, 2022 20:24:34 GMT
crofty Nice dedicated ditty. Thanks. By the way, you want to see me gorblimey trousers I'm having to wear over my swollen knee. I look a proper narner, I'll tell you. Never lived in a council flat, though. Sadly. Why didn’t you “like” it then? I need all the reassurance I can get mate. Maybe I will do a second verse about your part-time canal path cleaning job. I refuse to pander to your insecurity. I told you that when I finally responded to the 84th text you sent me today. Enough's enough now. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 11, 2022 20:39:19 GMT
I don't buy a wholesale Russian retreat. Sustainability is another matter-the most important one imo. If you look at the ISW reports and maps , whilst Russian progress in Donbas is slow -it is evident. Popasna & Yampil are flattened and occupied. How much of the Luhansk & Donetsk Oblasts are left to take actually. ? They just hit Odessa with seven hypersonic air launched missiles . With impunity. Does this look like Putin is set on taking Odessa and the SW coast ? Then what?-those troops and missiles in Transnistria get activated and bingo-he has a strangle hold on South & East Ukraine. And even if a "frozen stalemate" emerges-I don't think that is the end of fighting. On the ISW map at Kherson a new colour has appeared-blue hatched for "Partisan Warfare". Is the West ready to fund and supply Ukrainian Partisans , fighting in a de facto piece of Russia ? I really believe that Feb 24 changed everything. We are not going back to Post Cold War. This is a new Iron Curtain emerging. Defence spending will need to rise across Western Europe. The cost of supporting Ukraine to the end will be astronomical. The effects of the conflict will impact our economies. It is good that you are back Colin to provide balance to Alec's relentless over-optimism on Ukraine, but some of this is too pessimistic. I don't buy Alec's idea Russia is about to collapse - Putin will persist regardless, as he has no other choice - but they are not going anywhere very fast in the Donbas, and the idea they have the combat power to take Odessa and the remaining Black Sea coastline is highly improbable. For example the force in Transnistria amounts to about 1,500 Russians and 7,500 locals, all configured for territorial defence. The Ukrainian estimate of the offensive capability of the forces there is roughly one battalion - say 800 men. Obviously they could also try to attack from Kherson, but the Ukrainians have successfully held that line for months now. Zelensky has explicitly stated that he has no intention of allowing it to become a frozen conflict and I think only heavy losses to the Ukrainian forces as they start to use the offensive weapons they are (far too belatedly) being sent would change his mind. I agree that Russia's invasion has created new political and economic realities, but the West's determination to continue pouring ever more powerful weaponry into Ukraine seems pretty solid at present and a sanctioned Russia won't be able to match it in the long run. |
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Post by johntel on May 11, 2022 20:42:45 GMT
Very foolish to have done this before they join NATO. If Putin invaded Sweden or Finland now, we'd have to defend them, but no-one else would. Pointless and dangerous grandstanding. I agree its is typical Johnsonian grandstanding, but in the improbable event Russia attacked Sweden or Finland we would certainly not be the only ones defending them. Both countries already have defence cooperation agreements with Denmark and Norway for a start. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_Defence_CooperationIn any event Russia can barely find enough troops for Ukraine; there is zero chance of them attacking anyone else at present. I really hope Sweden and Finland are able to join NATO faster than Macron allows Ukraine into the EU  |
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Post by johntel on May 11, 2022 20:50:02 GMT
I don't buy a wholesale Russian retreat. Sustainability is another matter-the most important one imo. If you look at the ISW reports and maps , whilst Russian progress in Donbas is slow -it is evident. Popasna & Yampil are flattened and occupied. How much of the Luhansk & Donetsk Oblasts are left to take actually. ? They just hit Odessa with seven hypersonic air launched missiles . With impunity. Does this look like Putin is set on taking Odessa and the SW coast ? Then what?-those troops and missiles in Transnistria get activated and bingo-he has a strangle hold on South & East Ukraine. And even if a "frozen stalemate" emerges-I don't think that is the end of fighting. On the ISW map at Kherson a new colour has appeared-blue hatched for "Partisan Warfare". Is the West ready to fund and supply Ukrainian Partisans , fighting in a de facto piece of Russia ? I really believe that Feb 24 changed everything. We are not going back to Post Cold War. This is a new Iron Curtain emerging. Defence spending will need to rise across Western Europe. The cost of supporting Ukraine to the end will be astronomical. The effects of the conflict will impact our economies. It is good that you are back Colin to provide balance to Alec's relentless over-optimism on Ukraine, but some of this is too pessimistic. I don't buy Alec's idea Russia is about to collapse - Putin will persist regardless, as he has no other choice - but they are not going anywhere very fast in the Donbas, and the idea they have the combat power to take Odessa and the remaining Black Sea coastline is highly improbable. For example the force in Transnistria amounts to about 1,500 Russians and 7,500 locals, all configured for territorial defence. The Ukrainian estimate of the offensive capability of the forces there is roughly one battalion - say 800 men. Obviously they could also try to attack from Kherson, but the Ukrainians have successfully held that line for months now. Zelensky has explicitly stated that he has no intention of allowing it to become a frozen conflict and I think only heavy losses to the Ukrainian forces as they start to use the offensive weapons they are (far too belatedly) being sent would change his mind. I agree that Russia's invasion has created new political and economic realities, but the West's determination to continue pouring ever more powerful weaponry into Ukraine seems pretty solid at present and a sanctioned Russia won't be able to match it in the long run. The point is that as soon as Kherson (and all the other conquered territories) are formally accepted into Russia after a sham referendum, then Putin will threaten to use nuclear weapons to defend them. I don't believe he has any intention of ever ending this war - he's happy to take territory inch by inch no matter how many lives it costs. Kyiv, Odessa and Lviv will be under threat of missile attack indefinitely and it will be impossible for the Ukrainian economy to restart. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 11, 2022 21:27:07 GMT
The point is that as soon as Kherson (and all the other conquered territories) are formally accepted into Russia after a sham referendum, then Putin will threaten to use nuclear weapons to defend them. I don't believe he has any intention of ever ending this war - he's happy to take territory inch by inch no matter how many lives it costs. Kyiv, Odessa and Lviv will be under threat of missile attack indefinitely and it will be impossible for the Ukrainian economy to restart. We have ignored Putin's nuclear bluff so far and there is no reason to think we won't continue to do so. Russia can't win a nuclear war, no one can, and they know that perfectly well. The mistake here is to assume that only Russia has choices and options. War is the province of uncertainty (Clauswitz), and Ukraine gets a say it what happens too. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 11, 2022 21:27:21 GMT
Very foolish to have done this before they join NATO. If Putin invaded Sweden or Finland now, we'd have to defend them, but no-one else would. Pointless and dangerous grandstanding. I agree its is typical Johnsonian grandstanding, but in the improbable event Russia attacked Sweden or Finland we would certainly not be the only ones defending them. Both countries already have defence cooperation agreements with Denmark and Norway for a start. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_Defence_CooperationIn any event Russia can barely find enough troops for Ukraine; there is zero chance of them attacking anyone else at present. Doesn't Putin have vast reservist resources to call upon if and when he decides to officially declare war on Ukraine? They're not currently being called upon and deployed because Russia is involved in a "special military operation" that only involves the full time professional military forces. Some people feared that Putin would use yesterday's Victory Day parade speech in Moscow to announce the escalation of the "special military operation to a state of war, thereby allowing him to call up and deploy reservists. The more optimistic observers of this unfolding disaster took the fact that he didn't do so as a sign that Putin may be facing some sort of reality now and revising his military objectives downwards. He must be aware of the appalling death toll his army is taking in the Ukraine and conscious too that the conflict is bankrupting his heavily sanctioned economy. I heard a military expert talking yesterday about how the quagmired invasion may well be draining the Russian coffers of £1 billion a day. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 11, 2022 21:31:16 GMT
Bloody disgraceful and utterly disrespectful. (What’s the tune??) I'm afraid Mr Glitter is persona non Grata these days and his back catalogue is no longer freely available on either Spotify or ITunes. Therefore I can't direct you to the song. If I could hum it to you I would, but I'm afraid that's difficult to do via the medium of text. Suffice to say that the tune has spawned many a football terrace chant. Perhaps Carfers could text it to you on his synth. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 11, 2022 21:50:49 GMT
The risk of a 'long war' has been identified and US some US commentators are pushing for greater, faster support for Ukraine to allow them to push the Russians back this summer, so that a long war isn't allowed to develop. www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwvY6Tm_FqQ&t=403s |
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Post by alec on May 11, 2022 21:55:05 GMT
pjw1961 and colin - I don't think I'm being relentlessly optimistic on Ukraine - just reflecting mainstream western analysts opinion, tbh. I should perhaps clarify though, that when I talk about seeing another Russian retreat soon, I'm not talking about a wholesale withdrawal, more a further shrinking of the operational area that Putin is focused on. They are already retreating in the areas around Kkarkiv and the city is likely soon to be out of range for their artillery, and this could set the conditions for further tactical withdrawals around Izyum to the south. But it's also important to note that Ukraine has been recapturing territory around Kherson, and there is pressure here too on the occupiers. The bottom line is that I don't think Putin has the numbers to successfully hold the territory he already has, and the Ukrainian resistance has punctured the air of inevitability that we all had at the outset of the war. That's a really important point, because if we are talking about Russia subsuming new territories through fake elections, the popular image of Russia as a creaking oligarchy that struggles on the battlefield will encourage continued mass resistance and make Putin's plans very hard to enact. He can't start mobilizing his reserves without declaring a state of emergency, which he has declined to do so far, and his overall strategy on Ukraine is now muddled and illogical. My guess is he is banking on global food crises and economic pain to reach a point where he can use that, instead of his failed threats of military power, to negotiate some form of settlement. But his economy is shrinking 10% this year, and the impacts are only just starting to kick in, so the clock is ticking for him too.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 11, 2022 21:55:44 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 11, 2022 22:02:26 GMT
Doesn't Putin have vast reservist resources to call upon if and when he decides to officially declare war on Ukraine? They're not currently being called upon and deployed because Russia is involved in a "special military operation" that only involves the full time professional military forces. He must be aware of the appalling death toll his army is taking in the Ukraine and conscious too that the conflict is bankrupting his heavily sanctioned economy. I heard a military expert talking yesterday about how the quagmired invasion may well be draining the Russian coffers of £1 billion a day. Numbers are not the same as combat power. Much of the reservists' equipment is obsolete. They might be ok for territorial defence but fairly useless for offensive operations without extensive additional training and re-equipping. Then there is the question of morale (to quote Napoleon, "in war the moral is to the physical as three is to one"). The Ukrainians are fighting to defend their homeland against aggression, the Russian troops are fighting for ... what? By all accounts their army did very little before the invasion to mentally prepare their soldiers for combat. Their best units have taken heavy casualties. It is not surprising in the circumstances that Ukrainian morale has been consistently higher than that of the Russians. I will freely admit that I expected Russia's military to perform better than they have, but at the same time it in important to recognise that Russia is not a super-power. It's economy is smaller than that of Italy and almost 'third world' in its dependence on selling raw materials to more advanced countries. The sanctions, especially on high tech equipment, are going to affect their war-making capability. On the other hand, I don't expect either side to give up any time soon, as both have too much as stake (for Putin, national prestige and his own survival; for Ukraine its independence - plus, no doubt, a natural desire for revenge for their sufferings). Wars between large states tend to last as long time so, short of regime change in Moscow, I expect this one will too. |
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Post by alec on May 11, 2022 22:14:21 GMT
steamdrivenandy - "The risk of a 'long war' has been identified and US some US commentators are pushing for greater, faster support for Ukraine to allow them to push the Russians back this summer, so that a long war isn't allowed to develop." I really can't see a long war developing here, other than as I say, with a frozen conflict with disputed but relatively quiet borders. Since Feb 24th, Russia has lost on average around 10 tanks a day, with this figure based on confirmed visual losses, so likely a significant underestimate. The rate of loss varies depending on how active Russian forces are, and so today for example, 20 new losses were added to the total (4 of these captured, so now available to Ukraine). Ukraine now also has around 150 155mm howitzers supplied by the west, with large quantities of ammunition including precision guided munitions. Since these were deployed, Russian losses seem to have accelerated markedly. I just don't see how Russia can maintain this rate of losses over a long time frame.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 11, 2022 22:17:43 GMT
Hi Alec. The reason I say you tend to the optimistic is that the Pentagon assessments (regularly reported in the Guardian) tend to be more downbeat than those of ISW. Currently they are calling it as a stalemate. Likewise Richard Dannatt was talking down the chance of the Ukrainians recovering the lost southern territory only last week. So there isn't a single western military view. This doesn't mean the ISW are wrong and the Pentagon/Dannatt are right, just that there are less bullish views around on Ukrainian prospects.
Also there is very little reporting of Ukrainian personnel losses. These are obviously not as high as those of the Russians, but must still be considerable given the degree of firepower the Russians have used.
Having said that, I think the Ukrainians have the capacity to secure Kharkiv and stall the Russians in the Donbas. What I am not sure about is whether than can retake the south.
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Post by alec on May 11, 2022 22:31:20 GMT
Meanwhile, along with the BA2.12.1 variant surge now occurring in parts on the US and Canada, Portugal appears to be at the start of a new wave, this time of the BA5 variant. Like the UK, they had a big BA2 wave, so this will be one to watch. BA5 is now responsible for just under 40% of total cases, which have increased threefold since April 18th. There are the first signs of an increase in ICU admissions, with a c 20% increase in ICU admissions since mid April, although I can only find admissions data up to May 3rd.
The UK has 0.5% of cases of B5 currently, but the implied doubling time of B5 in Portugal is around a week. We've probably got two months until our next big wave. Portugal has 92% of the population vaccinated with the initial 2 doses, compared to the UK's 72%, and they are also ahead 62/57 in term of booster doses per 100 population. If we start to see significant adverse effects if Portugal in the next few weeks, then we need to start worrying.
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Post by alec on May 11, 2022 22:33:37 GMT
pjw1961 - "What I am not sure about is whether than can retake the south." Me neither, but I have noted that the ISW tends to proven correct, while the Pentagon often catches up with the good news. But no, like you - I'm not sure about anything.
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Post by joeboy on May 12, 2022 0:02:36 GMT
Although one of those 'children of the working class' (my father was a 'Bermondsey Boy') and after he died my mother went back into service in the mid-1950s because she felt that was the best way she could provide for me (board and far better lodging provided than we were used to), the money she earned from part-time waitressing being offset by a reduction in her widow's pension after the pension people somehow found out she had a job. Anyway, she certainly didn't inculcate in me a deference to the gentry or wealthy business people in whose houses we lived. (I still have the letter though which one of them (very much gentry) sent the nine-year-old me after we left saying how sorry he was we had moved on and wishing me all the best for the future). I may have left those working class roots behind (my sons earn incredibly - to me - high salaries in the City and software engineering), but I and they still vote Labour (though I suspect one of them now living in Twickenham may have voted LibDem in the recent local elections). I think you were lucky. Maybe our childhood experiences differed because you were living in close proximity to the "gentry" and saw them warts and all. We had no real contact with rich people and were slightly afraid of them. I would agree with John C, I grew up on a council estate in South London in the 1960s and 70s and I don't remember deference to the upper or middle classes as a part of our make up. Most people on the estate men and women worked, and were in unionised jobs so I think fear of the bosses/middle class was at an all time low. To be fair we didn't see an awful lot of the aristocracy, though we waved at the Queen once a year when she drove by on her way back from the Derby. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 12, 2022 0:19:04 GMT
pjw1961 and colin - I don't think I'm being relentlessly optimistic on Ukraine - just reflecting mainstream western analysts opinion, tbh. I should perhaps clarify though, that when I talk about seeing another Russian retreat soon, I'm not talking about a wholesale withdrawal, more a further shrinking of the operational area that Putin is focused on. They are already retreating in the areas around Kkarkiv and the city is likely soon to be out of range for their artillery, and this could set the conditions for further tactical withdrawals around Izyum to the south. But it's also important to note that Ukraine has been recapturing territory around Kherson, and there is pressure here too on the occupiers. The bottom line is that I don't think Putin has the numbers to successfully hold the territory he already has, and the Ukrainian resistance has punctured the air of inevitability that we all had at the outset of the war. That's a really important point, because if we are talking about Russia subsuming new territories through fake elections, the popular image of Russia as a creaking oligarchy that struggles on the battlefield will encourage continued mass resistance and make Putin's plans very hard to enact. He can't start mobilizing his reserves without declaring a state of emergency, which he has declined to do so far, and his overall strategy on Ukraine is now muddled and illogical. My guess is he is banking on global food crises and economic pain to reach a point where he can use that, instead of his failed threats of military power, to negotiate some form of settlement. But his economy is shrinking 10% this year, and the impacts are only just starting to kick in, so the clock is ticking for him too. For someone who isn't being relentlessly optimistic that post is, well , VERY optimistic. You have cherry picked all the positives from Western analysis, but have missed out all the negative aspects those same analysts have reported - eg. Kherson not threatened, even though a few weeks ago there was optimism it would be regained Mariupol not relieved and going to fall very soon Many infrastructure targets successfully hit by the Russians which must be impacting on Ukraine's ability to counter attack Many civilians evacuated to Russia Russian gains of territory in Donetsk region I think the news is largely positive and I am really pleased and encouraged about the strength Ukraine has shown, but I don't think we can be SO optimistic yet. My views are coloured by the fact I was playing an online team chess match against a Ukrainian in Kherson at the start of the war. He was optimistic at first about how things would go but less so when I last heard from him, which was now two weeks ago. I'm very sad to think of him there at the moment |
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Post by eor on May 12, 2022 0:55:25 GMT
First chance since Friday night to catch up on here, and to look at some numbers from the local elections, so apologies if this feels like dredging a bit. I thought the chart that neilj posted was really interesting, showing local election vote share over the past cycle in various places deemed to be in the Red Wall. Interesting because it seems to support several different readings at once; Firstly, you can read it as averaging a swing of roughly 6 points from CON to LAB in those LAs from 2021 to 2022, which is about double the swing in the PNS between those two elections and thus suggests a more pronounced shift in these areas. Brexit effect unwinding, levelling-up failing, the precise narrative doesn't matter so much: this is showing people in these areas moving back to Labour faster than elsewhere, which is clearly bad news for the Tories and their GE prospects. Secondly, you can read it as averaging a swing of roughly 6 points from CON to LAB in these LAs from 2021 to 2022, which is almost exactly the swing GB opinion polls would predict - the Tories were on average about 5 points ahead of Labour in the lead-in to the 2021 locals, and Labour 6-7 points ahead going into the 2022 edition. That suggests movement is not much different in these LAs than elsewhere in England, which is a more neutral assessment of GE prospects - obviously if the Tories remain significantly behind in the polls they are very likely to lose, but it doesn't imply an enhanced disadvantage in these areas. Thirdly, you can read it as showing a swing of just under 1 point from CON to LAB in these LAs from 2018 to 2022, which is rather less than the swing in the PNS between those two elections (2.5 points), and far less than the swing GB opinion polls would predict (about 4 points). That suggests Labour regaining ground more slowly in these areas than elsewhere in England, which could make winning the parliamentary seats back a harder task than it looks. Of course, things are muddied further by the strongest comparator for the next GE being the 2019 GE results, which are in turn the weakest piece of this data to compare meaningfully to the 2022 locals. And yes, as has been cited many times, in 2018 Labour did indeed hold the Red Wall seats, albeit from a previous year. Whether 2018 levels of support would be enough to win them back seems to be a more open question - vote shares at council level prior to 2018 are less easy to immediately come by, but where I could easily find the equivalent shares for the 2016 local elections, there seemed to be two very different patterns. In Calderdale and North Tyneside there was basically no change from 2016 to 2018 (in line with the PNS and the national polling picture both being pretty much unchanged from 2016 to 2018) but in Wakefield, Dudley, Burnley and Bolton there was substantial movement from LAB to CON, suggesting that in those areas at least, 2018 may have been a notch somewhere on the decline from Labour holding to losing, rather than a safe point to get back to. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 12, 2022 4:53:45 GMT
The rate of loss varies depending on how active Russian forces are, and so today for example, 20 new losses were added to the total (4 of these captured, so now available to Ukraine). Surely the amount of captured equipment is significant? Just how do you lose equiment in a functional condition unless things are going very badly? Hi Alec. The reason I say you tend to the optimistic is that the Pentagon assessments (regularly reported in the Guardian) tend to be more downbeat than those of ISW. Currently they are calling it as a stalemate. Likewise Richard Dannatt was talking down the chance of the Ukrainians recovering the lost southern territory only last week. So there isn't a single western military view. This doesn't mean the ISW are wrong and the Pentagon/Dannatt are right, just that there are less bullish views around on Ukrainian prospects. Also there is very little reporting of Ukrainian personnel losses. These are obviously not as high as those of the Russians, but must still be considerable given the degree of firepower the Russians have used. We dont have much real public intelligence upon which to base predictions. However, the history of this war so far has been every public pronouncement over estimating the capability of the Russians, and Russians failing at each successive military objective. All the pessimistic reporting thus far has been wrong. If there is a pattern therefore in what is known, it is that Russia is losing.
I have argued it was very much in the interests of the west that Russia invade Ukraine, that we could have prevented it either by openly delivering more arms over the years or immediately invasion was threatened, or by immediate sanctions when Russia threatened. The purpose of Putin playing the grand old Duke of York on the borders for a month was to test the west's response. We did little and therefore he invaded. We tricked him into invading. Ukrainian intelligence and propaganda work throughout has been masterly. So masterly in fact you might think it could only have been prepared well in advance with assistance from the west. Their propaganda has been as masterly as their fighting.
Unfounded fear of Russia has only been equalled in recent times by unfounded fear of covid. Covid could never have killed much more than it did had we done hardly anything in interventions. It seems Russia is a paper tiger too. Both over estimates of threat may have common cause in western mindsets. Both relied upon accepting worst case scenarios as reality.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 12, 2022 5:05:33 GMT
Meanwhile, along with the BA2.12.1 variant surge now occurring in parts on the US and Canada, Portugal appears to be at the start of a new wave, this time of the BA5 variant. Like the UK, they had a big BA2 wave, so this will be one to watch. BA5 is now responsible for just under 40% of total cases, which have increased threefold since April 18th. There are the first signs of an increase in ICU admissions, with a c 20% increase in ICU admissions since mid April, although I can only find admissions data up to May 3rd. The UK has 0.5% of cases of B5 currently, but the implied doubling time of B5 in Portugal is around a week. We've probably got two months until our next big wave. Portugal has 92% of the population vaccinated with the initial 2 doses, compared to the UK's 72%, and they are also ahead 62/57 in term of booster doses per 100 population. If we start to see significant adverse effects if Portugal in the next few weeks, then we need to start worrying. So you are saying that their having 92% vaccinated was quite useless in stopping the next strain of covid?
That if we look at the arrival of omicron in the UK as compared to its evolution in South Africa, our 72% vaccination was of no benefit to us compared to their 30% vaccination?
The reason all nations and the WHO initially had a policy of mitigation but allowing any new epidemic to run its course, was that there was really no option. Nothing we could actually do. Your vaccination stats seem evidence the original approach was correct, and changing it in the hope a vaccine could end this epidemic has proved to be very foolish indeed.
The way things are going, the world leaders who called down lockdowns upon us are going to be truly villified by the people of all nations as they experience the economic cost of what was done. This is only now starting to be felt. What is happening in Ukraine now demonstrates that some things ARE worth dying for. It was never sensible to throw vast sums at saving a few lives from covid, even if you believe this was achieved. The cost of our recent insanity ignoring centuries of best practice in managing epidemics will be seen in future lives lost to poverty and cutbacks.
News this morning again talking about food shortages in the pipeline. Ukraine exports of stored grain have largely been suspended by the warfare.Rocketing prices for any sort of grain product. UK egg producers are on the point of suspending production of same because the current egg price is unprofitable compared to grain to feed the hens, and not worth their replacing them as they age and would normally be replaced. Best plan to stop producing.
Meanwhile rocketing fuel costs have led to rocketing fertiliser costs. That means farmers are likely to use less, and production generallly to fall. Farming today seemed to be calling for farmers to hold their nerve - I guess there is a possibiity that high fertiliser costs now will be recouped when high crop prices are realised at harvest time. But thats a gamble for the farmer they might choose not to take. Rather like how government allowed small energy companies to go bust when it prevented them passing on rising costs.
Moves to halt russian fuel exports moved up a notch with the closing of pipelines across Ukraine. Its starting to look like the interest of the west is moving towards a fast win by Ukraine so that such matters can normalise. But while Ukraine is a real and serious threat we have to manage, we just emptied the kitty with worthless spending around covid.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 12, 2022 5:17:15 GMT
News this morning discussed a new legal opinion obtained by government that it can break some of its brexit treaty promises. Very much a fig leaf, because the issue has never really been whether the UK has the capacity to renege on its treaty commitments, but the consequences of doing so. The news item however also said that any changes being introduced now would not take effect for at least a year. That sounds a very significant number when compared to election timing. It sounds as though it is setting up the next election to be fought once again upon brexit - vote con to keep the new rules and beat the nasty EU. Vote lab to stick to the ruinous agreement and cave in to the EU. Forcing labour either to agree to government plans and therefore be complicit in any negative consequences. Or openly oppose them and fight on a rejoin ticket. Con would naturally blame any growing economic crisis caused by brexit as caused by accepting the current evil EU terms. In any event Russia can barely find enough troops for Ukraine; there is zero chance of them attacking anyone else at present. No risk of Johnson being called out on breaking that promise then either? Gvernment policy is all about promising things which will only have consequences for future incumbents. There will be no housebuilding boost this parlament, and no redistributive policies. Only promises for the future in everything. Thats the election strategy. |
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Post by moby on May 12, 2022 6:01:59 GMT
pjw1961 - "What I am not sure about is whether than can retake the south." Me neither, but I have noted that the ISW tends to proven correct, while the Pentagon often catches up with the good news. But no, like you - I'm not sure about anything. The doubling in size of the border with NATO when Finland joins surely puts at risk any strategic gains Putin hoped to gain through military aggression. Hopefully this will also increase internal opposition in the military and security services. |
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Post by alec on May 12, 2022 6:40:59 GMT
@danny - "So you are saying that their having 92% vaccinated was quite useless in stopping the next strain of covid?"
Yes that's right. Like I have consistently said since 2020, you can't vaccinate your way out of a pandemic alone. That doesn't mean you don't vaccinate. This is something you've really struggled to understand.
Vaccines have proven excellent at reducing deaths very significantly, but they have not given us sterilizing immunity that stops infections. They do cut the risk of long covid however, and the alternative - not vaccinating and relying on repeat infection - would result in far higher deaths, constant repeat infection, and a much higher risk of debilitating long covid.
And - once again - no one here is talking about lockdowns, but we do need a sensible way of living with covid, which means maximising vaccination while minimizing contagion, as far as is possible using some simple, low cost non pharmacological interventions, like masking in public shared spaces, improving indoor air quality, initiating proper protocols for testing and isolating when sick, and providing proper levels of sick pay for those who need to stay off work.
None of this is very expensive, and with the FT reporting 25% of companies are now concerned over the economic impacts of long covid (a figure that will just grow) we'll eventually come to realise that such a moderate, sensible approach is actually cost effective. And one day, we might get those second generation vaccines that do stop infection.
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Post by jimjam on May 12, 2022 6:55:50 GMT
EOR,
Kudos for trying to discern something useful from those BE numbers, I tried when Neil posted but frankly gave up.
As you say the drift Lab-Con was partially in place by 2018 but uneven so a reversion to similar levels of support (v Tories) would be decent in some areas but less encouraging in others.
I believe, though, that it is not rose tinted optimism to describe last week's elections as a turning point for Labour as the movement to to Tories has clearly been reversed.
It is just the extent of the reversal that is hard to calculate.
Clearly not enough imo and more to do but undeniably encouraging.
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Post by alec on May 12, 2022 7:12:29 GMT
pjw1961 - "The doubling in size of the border with NATO when Finland joins surely puts at risk any strategic gains Putin hoped to gain through military aggression. Hopefully this will also increase internal opposition in the military and security services." Yes, that's really what I'm getting at here. I don't feel I'm being wildly optimistic, but rather it seems abundantly clear that Putin has made a catastrophic blunder and as a result has seen a dramatic combination of military reversal, strategic disaster and severe economic decline, none of which is going to be undone quickly, if at all. I never have thought of Ukraine 'winning' the war, in the sense of driving Russia out of all their newly acquired territory, but the picture already looks dramatically better than it was six weeks ago and is likely to improve further for them. A messy end seems the most likely outcome, with a long term potential flashpoint remaining. But it isn't just Russia's battlefield losses that count here; there are various assessments that their production capacity is being severely hurt by sanctions, so their main tank manufacturer is now reported to be ceasing production, they are struggling to replace drones because of chip shortages, they can't keep their civil aircraft flying because they have no parts, and even their commercial bakeries are facing closures as virtually all the equipment is foreign made and won't be serviced and repaired. They even tried to steal millions of dollars worth of modern farm equipment from Ukraine but can't use it because the machines have been remotely disabled. And they are up against a Ukraine that has an open pipeline of defence equipment from the entire western world. I just cannot see a happy ending here for Russia, with the observation that the longer this goes on, the more they will decline as a military and economic power.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 12, 2022 7:37:28 GMT
@danny - "So you are saying that their having 92% vaccinated was quite useless in stopping the next strain of covid?" Yes that's right. Like I have consistently said since 2020, you can't vaccinate your way out of a pandemic alone .. Well you could in some circumstances, but this isnt one. We seem to be vying now for which of us was first to warn that covid was likely to behave more like flu than smallpox. You love pushing long term risks from having had covid, but there is really still no evidence it is worse than all the other diseases we catch and work through. People dont think about the fact that there is always some long term damage from every infection we have. To justify a unique response, you need a unique danger, and there simpy isnt one. Covid has behaved true to similar diseases in the past and our response will have to be the same. Nor has vaccination eliminated covid deaths. They have been running along at lower peak values for the last six months but because they have been sustained, the total is not nearly so much lower than at the start. Moreover, we would have expected death rate to fall anyway because the most susceptible will have succumbed already in earlier waves. So actually, we dont know how effective they have really been. This may call into question how accurate is reporting that deaths are really being caused by covid, and that has implications whether earlier deaths claimed to have been from covid really were. I posted here an example of a local chap who had terminal cancer, whose family were furious his death cert said he died from covid. He didnt, he died from cancer. He died because he had cancer, not because he had covid, even though covid probably brought forward his death a little. The way this is reported meant he was counted as a covid death, but he really was not. If you take that approach to cancer care, you ought to be saying most cancer patients die from deliberate euthanasia by doctors, because they do. The covid may have done him a favour. No evidence from SA where only 30% were vaccinated of higher death rates. Or debilitating illness. Your claim isnt supported by actual cases. You have never responded to the argument that slowing infection does not cut total of cases. So any action which only slows but doesnt prevent is worthless. What are you suggesting we should do which actually prevents cases? general masks wont. general improving ventilation wont. The only measures which are useful are those which can prevent cases in high risk people, which might mean in hospitals, care homes, suggesting pensioners avoid contact. There has been a move to redesign hospitals with single rooms to prevent cross infection, for other diseases not just covid. Maybe you should be spending your money on that? Buying one £1 mask for a milion people, is a milion pounds wasted which could have gone to rebuilding costs. Stop trying to squander yet more health money which the NHS needs. Yes it really is. and we still havn't got to the problem that vaccines don't work very well, so it is likely people will in the long run do better relying on their own immune systems to choose what antibodies to make and build a lifetime lasting immunity. Th main reason vaccines have not been updated to match current strains seems to be it wouldnt make them much better anyway. Costs a drop in the ocean of losses because of lockdown and forcing people to stay home. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 12, 2022 7:38:32 GMT
Latest GDP growth figures are worrying. In the last quarter growth was 0.8%, less than the 1% predicted. More worrying there was no growth in February and a fall in March.
Predictions were that we would go into recession by the end of the year, looking at the figures I would not be surprised if it was earlier than that
With the cost of living crisis and the prospect of stagflation the economic situation is only going to get worse.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 12, 2022 7:41:14 GMT
Interesting polling from Yahoo news on the U.S. in how the rise of the right wing can undermine public confidence in institutions
In 2020 just after the death of Ruth Ginsburg 73% of Americans expressed some or a lot of confidence in the U.S. Supreme court. Since the appointment of Trumps nominees this has dropped to just 50%.
The current removal of rights, criminalizing of peaceful protest, criminalizing those who assist asylum seekers and criminalizing being a refugee by our own corrupt right wing regime, together with their own blatant flouting of the law and moral and ethical standards, risks the same undermining of public confidence in the institutions of the legal framework.
Which presumably is their intent.
If you produce a situation where the public expect the executive to be self serving crooks it's easier to excuse anything.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 12, 2022 7:46:09 GMT
pjw1961 - "The doubling in size of the border with NATO when Finland joins surely puts at risk any strategic gains Putin hoped to gain through military aggression. Hopefully this will also increase internal opposition in the military and security services." Yes, that's really what I'm getting at here. I don't feel I'm being wildly optimistic, but rather it seems abundantly clear that Putin has made a catastrophic blunder and as a result has seen a dramatic combination of military reversal, strategic disaster and severe economic decline, none of which is going to be undone quickly, if at all. I never have thought of Ukraine 'winning' the war, in the sense of driving Russia out of all their newly acquired territory, but the picture already looks dramatically better than it was six weeks ago and is likely to improve further for them. A messy end seems the most likely outcome, with a long term potential flashpoint remaining. But it isn't just Russia's battlefield losses that count here; there are various assessments that their production capacity is being severely hurt by sanctions, so their main tank manufacturer is now reported to be ceasing production, they are struggling to replace drones because of chip shortages, they can't keep their civil aircraft flying because they have no parts, and even their commercial bakeries are facing closures as virtually all the equipment is foreign made and won't be serviced and repaired. They even tried to steal millions of dollars worth of modern farm equipment from Ukraine but can't use it because the machines have been remotely disabled. And they are up against a Ukraine that has an open pipeline of defence equipment from the entire western world. I just cannot see a happy ending here for Russia, with the observation that the longer this goes on, the more they will decline as a military and economic power. I actively seek out your Ukraine assessments because I need to encounter optimism on so dark a topic, a sense that karma is in play even though I know that's rubbish really. I hope your assessments are broadly right and that Russia will eventually be forced to abandon all it's aims in Ukraine. I think Russia is still able to inspire a certain sense of awe in some western observers as a hangover from the cold war but that post Soviet Russia has never deserved. Yes it has lots of nukes but then so does Pakistan. Since the start of this war every time Russia has faltered some have responded with variations around 'ah but just wait, they'll regroup and then the unstoppable mightiness of Russia will be brought to bear.' Well, so far they just keep faltering and catastrophically losing the propaganda war. Modern Russia is not the Soviet Union and that superpower state (that itself was long creaking to the extent it collapsed) disappeared forever in 1991. Having said that Russia never has happy endings but it's very good at plodding on miserably and doling out misery to those it lashes out at. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 12, 2022 7:49:08 GMT
Latest GDP growth figures are worrying. In the last quarter growth was 0.8%, less than the 1% predicted. More worrying there was no growth in February and a fall in March. Predictions were that we would go into recession by the end of the year, looking at the figures I would not be surprised if it was earlier than that With the cost of living crisis and the prospect of stagflation the economic situation is only going to get worse. Yes.
In 2008 a few banks went bust. So what? So the world had a major recession. Over nothing. No real disruption, no crisis in manufacture. Just a technical problem with some banks which had stupidly over borrowed. Just bail them out and all would be back to normal. But it wasnt. The trigger could not be un-pulled and a recession happend.
It has hardly started this time round. I was a kid during the last mass inflation wave caused by oil price shocks. I am deeply unamused that approaching retirement governments have utterly screwed up and we can expect a repeat. This has been caused by error after error deliberately made for party political advantage. Which in the UK anyway, reflects the political system where the largest minority takes absolute control.
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