Ukraine crisis

[Deleted]

lens Yes I think there's probably a trade-off in Putin's head between 'legitimacy' and 'territory', He would accept less territory in exchange for a guarantee that his gains would not get taken back later, because he wants to leave a permanent legacy.

It needs leadership and coordinated thinking between the US, UK and  EU. Unfortunately I think they're hung up on not being seen to give any ground whatsoever. For instance Crimea is never, ever going back to Ukraine. It has always been Russian - so why not just recognise that fact and get something back in return?

[Deleted]

We'll need to wait until 12:30pm as Boris has to tell HoC first but for the 'vague' we have:

'We will immediately institute a package of economic sanctions. This is, I should stress, just the first barrage of UK economic sanctions against Russia, because we expect I’m afraid that there is more Russian irrational behaviour to come … [The sanctions] will hit Russia very hard, and there is a lot more that we are going to do in the event of an invasion... targeted not just at entities in Donbas and Luhansk and Donetsk, but in Russia itself - targeting Russian economic interests as hard as we can'

(text from Guardian Live link (3m ago 09:18), from interview on BBC)

That is a step up from Biden's sanction only on Luhansk and Donetsk although maybe more from US later. TBC on EU nations. I very much it is 'united' and consistent across all of NATO and non-NATO EU nations and our resolve holds for the likely 'next steps' from Putin. 

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/22/ukraine-russia-latest-live-news-updates-crisis-putin-biden-zelenskiy-kyiv-kiev-russian-invasion-border-threat

[Deleted]

Finland, Sweden and anyone else not under NATO's Article 5 umbrella? TBC if 'events' speed up their decisions. From 25Jan'22

Ukraine crisis revives Nato debate in Finland and Sweden

www.ft.com/content/f30ab615-19ce-417d-8b35-abbf80e088fb

Also of note is Russia (and China) are putting out visible naval deterrent on their Eastern flank (Putin possibly remembers the war they lost in 1904-5)

19Oct'21: China, Russia navy ships jointly sail through Japan strait: www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-russia-navy-ships-jointly-sail-through-japan-strait-2021-10-19/

17Feb'22: Japan sees Russian warships as warning to keep out of Ukraine crisis: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-sees-russian-warships-as-warning-to-keep-out-of-ukraine-crisis-bstt7d92m

TBC of course. China might want to see if they can grab a bit of territory in the near future or see how the Ukraine situation plays out first and I'm not into scare mongering but Putin has quite clearly thought about his Eastern flank and wants to send the message to Japan and Asian allies to 'keep out' of the European situation. 

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2022 9:26:16 GMT @tw said:

We'll need to wait until 12:30pm as Boris has to tell HoC first but for the 'vague' we have:

'We will immediately institute a package of economic sanctions. This is, I should stress, just the first barrage of UK economic sanctions against Russia, because we expect I’m afraid that there is more Russian irrational behaviour to come … [The sanctions] will hit Russia very hard, and there is a lot more that we are going to do in the event of an invasion... targeted not just at entities in Donbas and Luhansk and Donetsk, but in Russia itself - targeting Russian economic interests as hard as we can'

(text from Guardian Live link (3m ago 09:18), from interview on BBC)

That is a step up from Biden's sanction only on Luhansk and Donetsk although maybe more from US later. TBC on EU nations. I very much it is 'united' and consistent across all of NATO and non-NATO EU nations and our resolve holds for the likely 'next steps' from Putin. 

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/22/ukraine-russia-latest-live-news-updates-crisis-putin-biden-zelenskiy-kyiv-kiev-russian-invasion-border-threat

Lets hope they assemble some collective balls.

I feel sorry for the Ukrainian people and fear for their fate now.

[neilj]

What do people think the sanctions should consist of for the UK?
Certainly look at Russian money in London, look at targeting some Russian oligarchs and those connected to Putin's regime, banning them from the country and removing their visas for the UK if they are already here. The Conservative party refuse to take any more money from people connected to or previously connected to Putin's regime. Perhaps give back the money they have been given or even better give it to Ukraine
But I think it needs to go much further to send a message. For example ban all travel between Russia and the UK. Ban all Russians from entering the UK would be a starter for me

[Deleted]

Lavrov dusts off his prepared speech:

'Our European, American, British colleagues will not stop and will not calm down until they have exhausted all their possibilities for the so-called ‘punishment of Russia’

They are already threatening us with all manner of sanctions or, as they say now, ‘the mother of all sanctions’. Well, we’re used to it. We know that sanctions will be imposed anyway, in any case. With or without reason.'

Paraphrase: Bring it on, we've been expecting you 

[Deleted]

Explainer: How Western sanctions might target Russia

www.reuters.com/markets/europe/how-financial-western-sanctions-might-target-russia-2022-01-19/

Mentions the $, €. Note: "European (not British) lenders hold the lion's share of the nearly $30billion in foreign banks' exposure to Russia"
(UK will have a net asset position for when the 'freeze' begins. US will have negligible exposure (and Russia has been weaning itself off $$). Global banking is global banking - Russia doesn't have to access it via countries imposing sanctions, it just needs 1+ countries to allow it access (eg it's not just gas pipelines being built to China and it takes seconds to open bank accounts and wire money - Putin moved his yacht recently IIRC, anyone who was expecting sanctions will likely have already done similar with 'moveable' assets)

Mentions energy: Note: "Europe's dependence on Russian energy supplies weakens the West's hand when considering sanctions in the sector"

Doesn't mention some other points previously discussed on UKPR2 (eg timing of elections in places like France, US and who voters blame for inflation and cost of living crisis)

The main thing will be to ensure whatever 'the West' does it is coordinated (ie everyone does the same) and we all stick with it - which is all easier said than done, especially when the various leaders have hyped it up as 'shock and awe', 'mother of all sanctions', etc. 

Putin just needs some cracks to appear and I'm pretty sure he knows who the 'weak links' are and exactly how to target each of them. 

Given I doubt everyone will do the same or stick with it once Putin retaliates then UK (due to our position in net assets and lack of dependency on Russian gas, 2yrs+ to a GE) can go a bit bolder than others and 'point the finger' at anyone who doesn't match UK sanctions (pretty easy to guess who they will be). That is a separate 'game' being played between countries in the 'West' and it would be naive to think it won't be played or that Putin isn't assuming it we will play it. 

So prediction: UK will do a bit more than Germany(EU) and we'll stick with it longer (but only coz we can). Biden will hopefully announce more than his pathetic effort y'day but he'll get bored pretty quick and seek a fudgey-temporary fix as he has mid-term elections coming up soon.

2c. We shouldn't stick our heads too much further above the parapet than Germany(EU) or keep our heads up there for much longer once they 'blink'. UK is not going to fight Russia with UK troops in a 'hot war' on non-NATO soil - we know that, Putin knows that and same applies to rNATO countries, notably US of course.

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2022 9:51:27 GMT neilj said:

But I think it needs to go much further to send a message. For example ban all travel between Russia and the UK. Ban all Russians from entering the UK would be a starter for me

I think that would be counterproductive as it would just play to Putin's thesis that the West wants to attack the Russian people and would increase his support. The ordinary (well 'middle-class') Russians who come to the UK come because they like the UK, there's no point alienating them.

[Deleted]

Germany cancels Nordstream.

Well at least they took the initiative and announced it themselves rather than being seen to be forced into it by the US.

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2022 11:26:55 GMT johntel said:

Germany cancels Nordstream.

Well at least they took the initiative and announced it themselves rather than being seen to be forced into it by the US.

You mean Nordstream2, which has already been built and for which approval had already been suspended (by Germany and EC)

You can't 'cancel' something that is already built and unless they intend to dismantle it then it will sit their waiting for approval one day.

So all they've done is reconfirm they had already 'halted' approval.

See various previous posts that covered all of that but see below from 16Nov'21

www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-energy-regulator-suspends-nord-stream-2-certification-makes-demands-2021-11-16/

PS For EC-EU response then note: The proposals will need to garner unanimous support from the member states whose foreign ministers are meeting this afternoon. 

ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_22_1281

TBC if they can reach unanimous agreement and/or we see the usual 'horse trading' first, followed by some watered down response. Also TBC if US do something more than Biden's pathetic effort y'day

[neilj]

Hoping the very limited and targeted sanctions announced by Johnson today are only the start of much larger and widespread sanctions, otherwise Putin will be thinking he has got away with it

[Deleted]

Starmer: "if the government does not impose a full set of sanctions now, Putin will conclude that he will not be punished"

and if UK unilaterally did impose 'a full set of sanctions' then what?

1. Putin would conclude that he had been punished (excessively, without reason - in his opinion) and retaliate, against those who had unilaterally imposed the 'full set' of sanctions (and show he's 'rewarding' those that have not)

2. Then what Starmer? Then what?

A/ Unilaterally deploy British troops to Ukraine?
B/ Demonstrate that we have nothing left to threaten Putin with and that 'the West' is divided.

NB Plenty of CON MPs also getting on their soap boxes 'talking tough' or using this as excuse for their own agendas (eg increase in defence spending, which is already above NATO's 2% - when plenty of others aren't spending that)

PS I'm aware UK's 'first barrage' is weak[1]. The three individuals already have sanctions imposed by US (so we're catching up on that specific component) and we've 'mysteriously' left out a few Russian banks. Conspiracy theorists can indulge in why the specific ones have been chosen and why some others that were on the 'short list' have not but once again 'the West' needs to act in a coordinated fashion rather than fight over who can restate existing stuff or try to pretend they've gone first or gone further (for which Boris is guilty as charged)

[1] Guardian Live retweeting FT 

[Deleted]

YG retweeting their recent polling:

US tend to get bored pretty quick but note the UK response (and also all EU nations bar Denmark). I expect Putin saw that polling and beyond Tobias Ellwood and a few CON MPs then is anyone asking for British troops to be deployed to Ukraine? Starmer? Davey? Blackford (Sturgeon)? 

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Feb 22, 2022 13:17:21 GMT neilj said:

Hoping the very limited and targeted sanctions announced by Johnson today are only the start of much larger and widespread sanctions, otherwise Putin will be thinking he has got away with it

Hi neilj there is also the possibility that Putin uses Western sanctions (aggression) as a pretext for more extensive military action in Ukraine. In for a penny in for a pound.

The only thing that is likely to have stopped Putin from taking this course is if the US had sent a division to Ukraine.

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2022 13:24:39 GMT @tw said:

Starmer: "if the government does not impose a full set of sanctions now, Putin will conclude that he will not be punished"

and if UK unilaterally did impose 'a full set of sanctions' then what?

1. Putin would conclude that he had been punished (excessively, without reason - in his opinion) and retaliate, against those who had unilaterally imposed the 'full set' of sanctions (and show he's 'rewarding' those that have not)

2. Then what Starmer? Then what?

A/ Unilaterally deploy British troops to Ukraine?
B/ Demonstrate that we have nothing left to threaten Putin with and that 'the West' is divided.

NB Plenty of CON MPs also getting on their soap boxes 'talking tough' or using this as excuse for their own agendas (eg increase in defence spending, which is already above NATO's 2% - when plenty of others aren't spending that)

PS I'm aware UK's 'first barrage' is weak[1]. The three individuals already have sanctions imposed by US (so we're catching up on that specific component) and we've 'mysteriously' left out a few Russian banks. Conspiracy theorists can indulge in why the specific ones have been chosen and why some others that were on the 'short list' have not but once again 'the West' needs to act in a coordinated fashion rather than fight over who can restate existing stuff or try to pretend they've gone first or gone further (for which Boris is guilty as charged)

[1] Guardian Live retweeting FT 

Yep-a pretty poor response. Tugenhadt scathing analysis on R4 just now. ....what about closing down RT and splashing a record of the locations of Putin's  wealth on front pages across Europe? 

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2022 14:34:21 GMT colin said:

Feb 22, 2022 13:24:39 GMT @tw said:

Yep-a pretty poor response. Tugenhadt scathing analysis on R4 just now. ....what about closing down RT and splashing a record of the locations of Putin's  wealth on front pages across Europe? 

The 'unilateral' (preferably backed by US who probably would) one I'd go:

Ban on all imports of Russian gas and coal.

We don't import much from Russia and could easily source what we do from elsewhere in the short-term (eg US) and it would push the focus on 'Energy security'. It would also be a meaningful and targeted 'hit' on how Russia makes it money.

PS The misreporting of the NS2 story is starting to wind me up given how much gas Germany+co import from Russia and how weak that has left 'the West' in terms of a united response. So if we're going to act unilateral (again, pref with US) then embarrass the countries that have made 'the West's' position so weak

Hopefully we're informing our 'friends' in Germany/EC that we will do that via 'back channels' and get some quid pro quo from them if they'd prefer we did not embarrass them. 'Horse trading' I think they call it? 

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2022 14:53:25 GMT @tw said:

Feb 22, 2022 14:34:21 GMT colin said:

Yep-a pretty poor response. Tugenhadt scathing analysis on R4 just now. ....what about closing down RT and splashing a record of the locations of Putin's  wealth on front pages across Europe? 

The 'unilateral' (preferably backed by US who probably would) one I'd go:

Ban on all imports of Russian gas and coal.

We don't import much from Russia and could easily source what we do from elsewhere in the short-term (eg US) and it would push the focus on 'Energy security'. It would also be a meaningful and targeted 'hit' on how Russia makes it money.

PS The misreporting of the NS2 story is starting to wind me up given how much gas Germany+co import from Russia and how weak that has left 'the West' in terms of a united response. So if we're going to act unilateral (again, pref with US) then embarrass the countries that have made 'the West's' position so weak

Hopefully we're informing our 'friends' in Germany/EC that we will do that via 'back channels' and get some quid pro quo from them if they'd prefer we did not embarrass them. 'Horse trading' I think they call it? 

Agreed

Me too on NS2-People have forgotten -there's an NS1

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2022 15:36:25 GMT colin said:

Feb 22, 2022 14:53:25 GMT @tw said:

Agreed

Me too on NS2-People have forgotten -there's an NS1

and that Germany and EC had already 'halted' the approval process for NS2 (ie they just confirmed what they'd already done)

PS Some 'errors' in the below link, which could be partially offset by Germany turning back on it's nuclear power stations, but it does show that Europe could rapidly drop it's dependency on Russian gas but they'd then rely on the 'kindness of strangers' (and fairly obviously the 'global' price of LNG would jump massively, there would be an issue with total number of ships/routes, etc if such a huge level of demand switched from Russian pipelines to LNG and W.Europe infrastructure, etc, etc). Still a useful read IMO 

news.sky.com/story/energy-crunch-how-the-uk-could-play-crucial-role-if-russia-turned-off-gas-taps-to-europe-12542931

I'd like to think UK has thought ahead and plenty of published info that shows we have (but adding the published info and the duration of the contracts still leaves us a bit short in the future). Also the route from Qatar is 2x the route from East Coast N.America and although the latter has expanded capacity it wouldn't be enough to satisfy all the European demand. China also buy a lot of LNG from Qatar and I'd be fairly sure they are 'discussing' tactics with Russia (LL made the valid point that it will take time for China to pipe/LNG in a load more 'cheap' Russian gas)

www.nationalgrid.com/grain-lng-and-qatar-terminal-limited-sign-long-term-agreement-will-help-strengthen-uk-gas-security
www.reuters.com/business/energy/uk-seeks-long-term-gas-deal-with-qatar-asks-become-supplier-last-resort-ft-2021-11-05/

[Deleted]

R&W poll. We're doing a bit of #1 and #2 (although I wouldn't disagree that it is fairly minimal so you could say we're more like #4) but folks are more opposed to #3 'deploying troops' (40%, net 16%) than the different wording 'defend Ukraine' YG poll. Let's hope it doesn't come to that and Putin decides 'enough for now'

[birdseye]

Feb 22, 2022 10:30:17 GMT @tw said:

Explainer: How Western sanctions might target Russia

www.reuters.com/markets/europe/how-financial-western-sanctions-might-target-russia-2022-01-19/

Mentions the $, €. Note: "European (not British) lenders hold the lion's share of the nearly $30billion in foreign banks' exposure to Russia"
(UK will have a net asset position for when the 'freeze' begins. US will have negligible exposure (and Russia has been weaning itself off $$). Global banking is global banking - Russia doesn't have to access it via countries imposing sanctions, it just needs 1+ countries to allow it access (eg it's not just gas pipelines being built to China and it takes seconds to open bank accounts and wire money - Putin moved his yacht recently IIRC, anyone who was expecting sanctions will likely have already done similar with 'moveable' assets)

Mentions energy: Note: "Europe's dependence on Russian energy supplies weakens the West's hand when considering sanctions in the sector"

Doesn't mention some other points previously discussed on UKPR2 (eg timing of elections in places like France, US and who voters blame for inflation and cost of living crisis)

The main thing will be to ensure whatever 'the West' does it is coordinated (ie everyone does the same) and we all stick with it - which is all easier said than done, especially when the various leaders have hyped it up as 'shock and awe', 'mother of all sanctions', etc. 

Putin just needs some cracks to appear and I'm pretty sure he knows who the 'weak links' are and exactly how to target each of them. 

Given I doubt everyone will do the same or stick with it once Putin retaliates then UK (due to our position in net assets and lack of dependency on Russian gas, 2yrs+ to a GE) can go a bit bolder than others and 'point the finger' at anyone who doesn't match UK sanctions (pretty easy to guess who they will be). That is a separate 'game' being played between countries in the 'West' and it would be naive to think it won't be played or that Putin isn't assuming it we will play it. 

So prediction: UK will do a bit more than Germany(EU) and we'll stick with it longer (but only coz we can). Biden will hopefully announce more than his pathetic effort y'day but he'll get bored pretty quick and seek a fudgey-temporary fix as he has mid-term elections coming up soon.

2c. We shouldn't stick our heads too much further above the parapet than Germany(EU) or keep our heads up there for much longer once they 'blink'. UK is not going to fight Russia with UK troops in a 'hot war' on non-NATO soil - we know that, Putin knows that and same applies to rNATO countries, notably US of course.

I'm not convinced that Putin needs any cracks to appear since he has absolute control of his own country and a friend in China to trade with. What does he need the west for?

Meantime our sanctions so far will do more damage to the City than to the Russians and of course the control Putin has over the marginal oil and gas supply is doing real damage to us through inflated energy costs. I wonder how determined the western government will be when their populations are shivering through next winter. Could be better to be warm that to be outraged?

[Deleted]

First weak link exposed as NATO member Turkey looks out for it's own self-interest.

NATO member Turkey, opposed to sanctions, in bind over Ukraine

www.reuters.com/world/nato-member-turkey-opposed-sanctions-bind-over-ukraine-2022-02-22/

Erdogan playing both sides these days and NATO/Europe won't want to see Russian influence increase with such an important geo-political ally but are we (ie US+ for NATO and EC-EU for Europe) going to improve the 'bribes' to likes of Turkey to be exclusive and committed members of NATO and also to be the 'fence' for immigration.

PS I assume EC-EU are still talking. No 'white smoke' yet but a few of their 27 members have the 'white flag' ready and it needs to be unanimous 

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2022 17:34:10 GMT @tw said:

First weak link exposed as NATO member Turkey looks out for it's own self-interest.

NATO member Turkey, opposed to sanctions, in bind over Ukraine

www.reuters.com/world/nato-member-turkey-opposed-sanctions-bind-over-ukraine-2022-02-22/

Erdogan playing both sides these days and NATO/Europe won't want to see Russian influence increase with such an important geo-political ally but are we (ie US+ for NATO and EC-EU for Europe) going to improve the 'bribes' to likes of Turkey to be exclusive and committed members of NATO and also to be the 'fence' for immigration.

PS I assume EC-EU are still talking. No 'white smoke' yet but a few of their 27 members have the 'white flag' ready and it needs to be unanimous 

Hungary, CYprus , Austria watering the package down according to Sky.

[neilj]

On the face of it the EU sanctions look to be much more widespread than the UKs very weak response. Can understand why many people, including Conservative MPs are not happy with Johnson's response.
From the FT
'The EU has unanimously approved a package of sanctions against Russia and its surrogates in Ukraine, targeting 351 members of the Russian parliament and 27 individuals and entities blamed for undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty.

“This package of sanctions has been approved by unanimity,”

The EU sanctions, which were co-ordinated with the US and other allies, are aimed at those involved in the decision to recognise the two breakaway territories, as well as those that are financing Russian military and other operations in those territories. They will also target the ability of the Russian state and government to access the EU’s capital and financial markets and services and crack down on imports and exports from the two breakaway regions.

The EU’s measures will target as many as 351 members of the Russian Duma, as well as individuals and businesses linked to Russian actions in the separatist regions, according to people familiar with the discussions'

[neilj]

Dan Hodges, not a friend of the left, is less than convinced about Johnson's sanctions

Tory MP's not happy also

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2022 17:47:48 GMT colin said:

Feb 22, 2022 17:34:10 GMT @tw said:

Pleasantly surprised it's ended up being quicker and broader than I expected

ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_22_1286

Biden might well 'see that and match it' in the next few minutes and then hopefully Boris will as well. We need to be coordinated on the list of names and ensure we freeze the assets BEFORE we release the list of names.

PS and then tomorrow and over the coming days we'll see what Putin thinks of that. Stick or twist?

[Deleted]

Attached link has a more detailed map of the issue around 'held' v 'claimed'. EG City of Mariupol (population 432k)

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html

Does Putin 'stick' with what is 'held' (and negotiate Minsk III) or twist and expand to what is claimed and maybe go beyond that before coming to the table for talks? We'll probably find out fairly soon. 

[Deleted]

FFS Biden, like WTF?!?

Biden: We have no intention of fighting Russia
The US president says he has no intention of fighting Russia but that he has authorised additional forces and equipment to bolster the Baltics.

"We will defend every inch of NATO territory," he said.

So the rest of Ukraine is 'fair game' if Putin wants to take it then US (and hence NATO) ain't going to stop him. We/Putin probably expected that US (and hence NATO) wouldn't fight Russia in Ukraine but he could at least kept it back as a 'maybe'    

(see 19:29, 19min ago news.sky.com/story/ukraine-live-updates-russia-recognises-donetsk-and-luhansk-sanctions-invasion-12541713) 

[neilj]

Looks like Biden and the US have upped their sanctions, from SKY news

'He said: "We're implementing full blocking sanctions on two large Russian financial institutions, VEB and their military bank.

"We're implementing comprehensive sanctions on Russian sovereign debt. That means we've cut off Russia's government from Western financing, it can no longer raise money from the West and cannot trade in its new debt on our markets or European markets either."

He added: "Starting tomorrow and continuing in the days ahead we will also impose sanctions on Russia's elites and their family members. They share in the corrupt gains of the Kremlin policies and should share in the pain as well."

Mr Biden said the US had worked with Germany in the halting of Nord Stream 2, adding: "As Russia contemplates its next move, we have our next move prepared as well. Russia will pay an even steeper price if it continues its aggression, including additional sanctions."

Johnson's weak response is looking more and more out of step.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Hi neilj tbh I think the relative weak action by the west is based on the assumption that in all likelihood we won't now see a full scale invasion of Ukraine now (which was always the big fear) as the weather is starting to change and the window for that is closing. Its more a case of the West not losing too much face now rather than actually doing anything that is likely to lead to a reversal of what Putin has done. 

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2022 19:57:29 GMT neilj said:

Looks like Biden and the US have upped their sanctions, from SKY news

'He said: "We're implementing full blocking sanctions on two large Russian financial institutions, VEB and their military bank.

"We're implementing comprehensive sanctions on Russian sovereign debt. That means we've cut off Russia's government from Western financing, it can no longer raise money from the West and cannot trade in its new debt on our markets or European markets either."

He added: "Starting tomorrow and continuing in the days ahead we will also impose sanctions on Russia's elites and their family members. They share in the corrupt gains of the Kremlin policies and should share in the pain as well."

Mr Biden said the US had worked with Germany in the halting of Nord Stream 2, adding: "As Russia contemplates its next move, we have our next move prepared as well. Russia will pay an even steeper price if it continues its aggression, including additional sanctions."

Johnson's weak response is looking more and more out of step.

Yes we look way out of line. Very disappointing and embarrasing.