Ukraine crisis

[birdseye]

Yet another government trying to shore up its popularity by using our small military forces. The Defence Secretary off to Russia to warn them of the consequences of invading Ukraine when the Russians have already shown their contempt for us in Salisbury if not many other places.

"We're in a political mess, cant do much about it. But at least we can tell the forces what to do. And that will go down well with the Blimps on the back benches".

Meantime, the Germans say nothing much and just ship in loads of Merc and Audi.

[mercian]

Someone on Radio 4 this morning said that Germany was blocking aid from Estonia to Ukraine. Looking at the map I can't quite see how they could do that, but that's what this chap said. It is concerning that with Germany so dependent on Russian gas, they will be at best lukewarm about supporting Ukraine.

[Deleted]

Jan 22, 2022 17:40:41 GMT mercian said:

Someone on Radio 4 this morning said that Germany was blocking aid from Estonia to Ukraine. Looking at the map I can't quite see how they could do that, but that's what this chap said. It is concerning that with Germany so dependent on Russian gas, they will be at best lukewarm about supporting Ukraine.

Yep- "Friends and Allies " 



www.politico.eu/article/germany-pivot-from-america/

[birdseye]

The Germans have learned the Swiss lesson that maybe we should think about - stay neutral and make money out of it.In their case they are protected by the Yanks and NATO. We, in addition, have the channel. The real chances of anyone marching across europe to invade little old UK are pretty damn close to zero. IMO we dont need NATO and should just mind our own business rather than trying to be a "world player" that we lost a long time ago.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Headline in the Telegraph:

“American liberal elites are waking up to the benefits of Brexit

There is a growing awareness in Washington that when it comes to standing up to Putin, Britain is the leading power across the Atlantic”


…

“Anthony Gardner, the former US Ambassador to the European Union under President Obama, commented on Sunday: “As bad as Brexit has been, I fully admit that a significant upside is that the UK can act swiftly in foreign Affairs including Ukraine rather than being dragged into endless EU waffle. No doubt this has been noticed in Washington.””

[birdseye]

That about sums it up!

[Mark]

Biden puts 8,500 troops on high alert.
Putin moven more troops and hardware in.
Belarus to stage provocative war games.
Various NATO countries sending warships, tanks, bombs and missiles into the area.

This is getting a bit hairy for my liking.

All these leaders, supposedly intelligent men, doing this knowing (there's no way they haven't had this conversation) that if it goes wrong, it could be the big one.

What the hell is going on?

The answer : stupidity. On all sides.

If they want a war, they should be made to go hand to hand with each other in a locked room and leave the rest of us out of it.

[mercian]

We (the west in general, but UK in particular) should have a close relationship with Russia. The alternative is to drive them into the arms of China, the next dominant power. The Eu and NATO should stop pushing their borders ever eastwards. How would the US feel if Mexico became a Russian puppet, or how would the Uk feel if a nearby country such as the Netherlands did?

[Deleted]

In my view the West should officially recognise that Crimea is now part of Russia (as it always was anyway) in return for cast-iron guarantees about keeping out of East Ukraine. Maybe it's appeasement but it could be a solution. Otherwise this stand-off is going to go on for years.

[Deleted]

Jan 26, 2022 12:44:03 GMT johntel said:

In my view the West should officially recognise that Crimea is now part of Russia (as it always was anyway) in return for cast-iron guarantees about keeping out of East Ukraine. Maybe it's appeasement but it could be a solution. Otherwise this stand-off is going to go on for years.

That is appeasement (!)

in return for "cast iron " guarantees from Putin ? :-


 theconversation.com/ukraine-got-a-signed-commitment-in-1994-to-ensure-its-security-but-can-the-us-and-allies-stop-putins-aggression-now-173481

and shouldn't the citizens of Crimea be asked what they want ?:-


www.hrw.org/news/2021/09/07/revolving-door-persecution-crimea

www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/11/russia-human-rights-abuses-in-crimea-vladimir-putin-court

www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/15/european-court-accepts-case-adjudicate-abuses-crimea

www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=25681&LangID=E

[Deleted]

Jan 26, 2022 14:05:04 GMT colin said:

Jan 26, 2022 12:44:03 GMT johntel said:

In my view the West should officially recognise that Crimea is now part of Russia (as it always was anyway) in return for cast-iron guarantees about keeping out of East Ukraine. Maybe it's appeasement but it could be a solution. Otherwise this stand-off is going to go on for years.

That is appeasement (!)

in return for "cast iron " guarantees from Putin ? :-


 theconversation.com/ukraine-got-a-signed-commitment-in-1994-to-ensure-its-security-but-can-the-us-and-allies-stop-putins-aggression-now-173481

and shouldn't the citizens of Crimea be asked what they want ?:-


www.hrw.org/news/2021/09/07/revolving-door-persecution-crimea

www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/11/russia-human-rights-abuses-in-crimea-vladimir-putin-court

www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/15/european-court-accepts-case-adjudicate-abuses-crimea

www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=25681&LangID=E

Sorry Colin I respectfully disagree  - I do have direct knowledge of Crimea. A large majority of the Crimean population are ethnic Russians and they want to be part of Russia.  It's true  the Crimean Tatars are (and have been for a very long time) treated badly and discriminated against, but they are a small minority, plus most potential opponents of Putin were effectively forced to leave for mainland Ukraine after the annexation. Any referendum, no matter how closely monitored, would give a huge majority for Russia. That's never going to change, even after Putin. 

What he craves is respect and for Russia to be taken seriously on the world stage. If the West doesn't somehow offer him a way out and a path to a peaceful retirement I'm afraid it's going to end badly for everyone. 

[Deleted]

johntel



@"What he craves is respect and for Russia to be taken seriously on the world stage. If the West doesn't somehow offer him a way out and a path to a peaceful retirement I'm afraid it's going to end badly for everyone. "



Oh-I see. Where can I make a contribution to his retirement fund.


Should I send it here ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56007943

[Deleted]

johntel

I like this proposal. It includes firm stances on NATO ; realistic attitudes on Ukraine & Crimea.

Whether Putin would accept that his eight year long attempt to collapse Ukraine as a sovereign state is an abject failure , seems doubtful to me though.

www.chathamhouse.org/2022/01/why-putins-gamble-does-not-have-be-lose-lose

[Deleted]

johntel

@"Any referendum, no matter how closely monitored, would give a huge majority for Russia."

It doesn't sound like the promised land to me :-

www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/21/the-devastating-human-economic-costs-of-crimeas-annexation

www.youtube.com/watch?v=40ncNdDXlpU

[Deleted]

colin

I don't really buy that kind of transactional analysis. Putin's strategic goal is to restore the rightful (in his eyes) boundaries of Russia to include the majority-Russian regions of surrounding countries. A mini-USSR based on Russian ethnicity. What he considers should have been the outcome from the break-up of the USSR. Some tangible success that he can demonstrate as his his 'legacy' and would make him so popular that he'd be protected when he eventually loses grip on power. Otherwise he knows he'll eventually be thrown to the wolves.
He doesn't recognise Ukraine as a legitimate country and he won't respect any treaties that don't address fundamental issues, so those Chatham House proposals won't get very far.
However I do think a solution could be found that both sides could live with, though would be perceived a sell-out by a lot of (ethnic) Ukrainians.

Whereas (unfortunately) I think the situation with China and Taiwan is totally insoluble :-(

[Deleted]

Jan 26, 2022 16:16:23 GMT colin said:

johntel

@"Any referendum, no matter how closely monitored, would give a huge majority for Russia."

It doesn't sound like the promised land to me :-

www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/21/the-devastating-human-economic-costs-of-crimeas-annexation

www.youtube.com/watch?v=40ncNdDXlpU

Yes Ukraine has cut off the supply of fresh water to Crimea. Somehow I don't think that's going to make people vote to rejoin Ukraine. 

[Mark]

On Crimea, it's a done deal. Russia is there to stay - and as already said, a fair chunk of the population want Russia to stay.

While nobody knows for sure what's on Putin's mind and what his next move will be, I'm inclined to think that a guarantee that Ukraine and Georgia won't join NATO could be enough to diffuse this.

It would leave Ukraine and Georgia exactly as they are now - no change at all (neithor country is likely to join any time soon anyway).

This then also greatly reduces the threat of nukes right on Russia's doorstep, which, above all else, is surely what Putin is afraid of (and will become more of a worry with hypersonic missile technology meaning less flight time in the future). Yes, Putin would like to restore parts of the former USSR, but, even he knows this isn't going to happen.

Putin wins in the sense that what must be his main aim achieved.

The west wins in the sense that they've faced down Putin by leaving things exactly as they are.

Ukraine wins in that there is no war.

[Deleted]

Looking very worrying.

Vlad does seem intent on recreating the Soviet Empire.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60164537

[Deleted]

"US requests an open United Nations Security Council meeting to discuss the crisis over Ukraine"

Al-jazeera

[birdseye]

Jan 25, 2022 0:30:14 GMT mercian said:

We (the west in general, but UK in particular) should have a close relationship with Russia. The alternative is to drive them into the arms of China, the next dominant power. The Eu and NATO should stop pushing their borders ever eastwards. How would the US feel if Mexico became a Russian puppet, or how would the Uk feel if a nearby country such as the Netherlands did?

Russia is not a "normal western style democracy". In reality it is a dictatorship run buy a guy who in his formative years was the head of the KGB in Berlin and responsible for the murders and torture that went on there. Whats more ha has decsribed the fall of the Soviet Union as a disaster and approaches international relations in a very similar way to Adolf. Dont forget the countries he has already invaded and annexed. In short he cant be trusted in any sense.

On the other had, the Chinese have shown no military adventurism.

Nothing to stop us having close commercial relationships with everybody - trade should not be subject to such matters

[Deleted]

"A mobilisation of Russian troops and weaponry around Ukraine's borders has continued to expand - now numbering some 130,000 military personnel - despite condemnation by western allies and pressure on the Kremlin to drawdown.
In one of the surest indicators the Russian military is preparing to attack rather than simply conducting training exercises, the Reuters news agency reported that supplies of blood and other medical materials to treat casualties were forming part of the Russian build-up."

Sky News

[Deleted]

Just FWIW then Opinium latest has polling questions on Ukraine. UKR1-6. WRT to an invasion then:

Folks want UK to intervene diplomatically: 68% (net 51%)
If diplomacy fails then 38% (net -1%) want a military intervention (although that is net +ve for CON and LAB VI)

[Deleted]

YG article, not dissimilar to Opinium's findings but covers views US and several other European nations:

EuroTrack: Russian invasion of Ukraine seen as likely, but few want their country to defend them
(and willingness to defend NATO members Poland or Latvia is not much higher)

yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/31/eurotrack-russian-invasion-ukraine-seen-likely-few

[Deleted]

More Ukraine specific polling (but quite possibly influenced by the broader disapproval of Boris). Brand Truss might also suffer some damage if she keeps up the 'war mongering' (extreme sabre rattling)

?

[birdseye]

Jan 30, 2022 14:15:48 GMT @tw said:

Just FWIW then Opinium latest has polling questions on Ukraine. UKR1-6. WRT to an invasion then:

Folks want UK to intervene diplomatically: 68% (net 51%)
If diplomacy fails then 38% (net -1%) want a military intervention (although that is net +ve for CON and LAB VI)

I wonder what "the UK intervening diplomatically actually means". Dont be naughty Vlad or we will send you to the naughty step?

[Deleted]

Feb 6, 2022 15:57:55 GMT birdseye said:

Jan 30, 2022 14:15:48 GMT @tw said:

Just FWIW then Opinium latest has polling questions on Ukraine. UKR1-6. WRT to an invasion then:

Folks want UK to intervene diplomatically: 68% (net 51%)
If diplomacy fails then 38% (net -1%) want a military intervention (although that is net +ve for CON and LAB VI)

I wonder what "the UK intervening diplomatically actually means". Dont be naughty Vlad or we will send you to the naughty step?

'Wording' is a challenge for all polling companies and even the Electoral Commission[1]. Folks can 'infer' whatever they like from a word such as 'diplomatically'. Perhaps stating 'apply increased sanctions (possibly with a long list of possibles), expel diplomats, freezing assets and using other non-military forms of intervention' would have been better than using the word 'diplomatically' but once you go for needing to explain the fine details then you can get into trouble (eg some folks might be OK with certain sanctions but not others and a simple word like 'diplomatically' has the benefit of covering a range of non-military options. It would also be likely UK with negotiate with our allies for a coordinated 'diplomatic' intervention and by avoiding a 'shopping list' question that leaves open the need for negotiations to decide upon the specifics of 'intervention diplomatically'. 

[1] EG The question in the Brexit referendum seemed pretty clear to me but some folks still seem to struggle with 'Leave the European Union' meaning Br(itain) exit(s) the EU, which is now past tense of course. 

www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/testing-eu-referendum-question

[Deleted]

Good article on the Minsk agreement, which is the focus of the Macron initiative.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/what-is-the-minsk-agreement-and-why-is-it-relevant-now

Basis for a fudge if both parties want it, but no basis for a black and white answer to whether Ukraine can decide it's own future without Russian interference.

[Deleted]

Wallace (F.Sec in waiting?) doing a better job than the embarrassing Truss this week (see polling that clearly shows folks from UK and other countries want a 'diplomatic', non-military solution)

‘We will keep trying,’ says Ben Wallace after key talks with Russia over Ukraine..

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ben-wallace-will-warn-putins-generals-of-sanctions-bdpkkrlq0

However, I would disagree with him WRT to 'insecurity, anxiousness and instability benefited neither side' as Putin does benefit (gas futures prices are high all the way through 2022)

If some 'behind the scenes' deals are done whereby Russia can secure 2-5yr+ contracts from Europe for gas supplies (locking in current prices) then would that be enough to start the de-escalation? Putin is winning the 'slow' game and neither side will benefit from a 'hot' war.

PS It's 'speculation' WRT to exactly what UK is doing IN Ukraine but WTF are we doing if we have put 'troops on the ground'. Ukraine is not NATO, Putin hasn't invaded (yet) so WTF are we doing 'war mongering' and giving Putin an excuse to invade.

Ukraine will not be Boris's Falklands (that saved Thatcher) - more likely it would be his Suez 

[Deleted]

Feb 9, 2022 18:31:05 GMT johntel said:

Good article on the Minsk agreement, which is the focus of the Macron initiative.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/what-is-the-minsk-agreement-and-why-is-it-relevant-now

Basis for a fudge if both parties want it, but no basis for a black and white answer to whether Ukraine can decide it's own future without Russian interference.

Another opinion of Minsk-and its flaws :-


www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-ukraine-what-are-the-minsk-agreements/

And the failure of the Budapest Memorandum to deter one of Ukraine’s security guarantors from military aggression ,and to get the other guarantor to do any guaranteeing , must leave them wondering why they gave up their weaponry.

No wonder Putin spoke of Ukraine having to be raped and accept it :-

edition.cnn.com/2022/02/08/europe/putin-coarse-remarks-ukraine-intl/index.html

[Deleted]

I think Putin's territorial objectives in Ukraine have been over-stated in some places. He'll be aiming for annexation of the contiguous block of regions bordering the Black Sea and the eastern border, which are predominantly Russian-speaking:

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — 72%
Donetsk Oblast — 93%
Luhansk Oblast — 89%
Zaporizhia Oblast — 81%
Odessa Oblast — 85%
Kharkiv Oblast — 74%
Mykolaiv Oblast — 66%

Source - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_language_in_Ukraine#:~:text=Russian%20is%20the%20most%20common,the%20country's%20only%20state%20language.

If he could get those he would consider his historical destiny fulfilled, be a hero at home and could focus on just defending those gains.

But perhaps a more likely outcome, depending on how strong the resistance is, is that he'd just get Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia - more or less the current rebel-controlled area. That would leave him exposed at home though - not a clear victory to make the subsequent pain seem worthwhile.